Government Bonds Outlook - Quarter 2 2018 - Aberdeen Standard Investments

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Government Bonds Outlook - Quarter 2 2018 - Aberdeen Standard Investments
Government Bonds Outlook
Quarter 2 2018

The views represented are those of the Standard Life Investments Rates team. Aberdeen Standard
Investments is a brand of the investment businesses of Aberdeen Asset Management and
Standard Life Investments.

This document is intended for institutional
investors and investment professionals
only and should not be distributed to or
relied upon by retail clients.
Outlook Summary
UNDERWEIGHT

                                                                                                                                 OVERWEIGHT
                                                                    NEUTRAL
Summary                                                                            Rates
US Summary - UNDERWEIGHT                                                  Page 2    Philip Laing
Everyone is more cautious on the outlook as the developing story of a fiscal        Investment Director – Head of Rates
growth push, higher supply and (maybe) higher inflation took a sharp knock          +44 (0)131 245 4516
during March. All of this was a reminder that bond behaviour continues              philip.laing@aberdeenstandard.com
to lean heavily towards a more dovish stance and a belief that capacity
pressures will not produce more inflation. We disagree. Meanwhile, the              Jack Kelly
bond supply that will test investor appetite will not arrive until late 2018        Investment Director – Global & European Funds
– and the ECB continues to tread a very patient path towards tapering its           +44 (0)131 245 6883
QE programme. We expect steady rate rises from the Fed and inflation to             jack.kelly@aberdeenstandard.com
continue to rise – this combination should ultimately undermine bonds.
                                                                                    Liam O’Donnell
UK Summary - NEUTRAL                                                      Page 3    Investment Director – Gilt Funds
                                                                                    +44 (0)131 245 6342
The BoE monetary policy decision in May is finely balanced following softer         liam.o.donnell@aberdeenstandard.com
growth and inflation data, and recent intervention from Governor Carney.
Even if the MPC chooses to persist with its supply-side argument and raise
                                                                                    Aaron Rock
rates, we think it is unlikely it will be able to follow this up with another
                                                                                    Investment Director – Gilt Funds
hike this year. We maintain the view it is too optimistic on the strength of
                                                                                    +44 (0)131 245 2864
the economy and the path of Brexit negotiations. For us, the distribution
                                                                                    aaron.rock@aberdeenstandard.com
of possible Brexit outcomes remains wide and UK economic activity will
likely stagnate and continue to underperform other developed economies
whilst uncertainty persists. We anticipate using the less supportive technical      Ross Hutchison
environment over this quarter to reinstate our strategic bias for holding           Investment Director – Gilt, Global & European Funds
overweight gilt positions versus other developed markets in the context of a        +44 (0)131 245 1440
rising yield enviornment.                                                           ross.hutchison@aberdeenstandard.com

                                                                                    Findlay Hyde
Europe Summary - UNDERWEIGHT                                              Page 4
                                                                                    Investment Analyst – Gilt Funds
Data remain firm in Europe and its strength is broad-based, both in terms           +44 (0)131 245 8369
of internal and external demand, and is fairly uniform across the bloc.             findlay.hyde@aberdeenstandard.com
Continued strong growth cannot coexist with ultra-low policy dovishness
ad infinitum. The market now expects no movement on policy rates until
near the end of Draghi’s tenure (late 2019). Draghi has almost been too
successful in suppressing expectations and we expect to see a continuation         Inflation
of the renewed volatility in bunds. Despite unhelpful market positioning, we
expect core European bonds to sell off.                                             Katy Forbes
                                                                                    Investment Director – Inflation Funds
Japan Summary - UNDERWEIGHT                                               Page 5    +44 (0)131 245 1552
                                                                                    katy.forbes@aberdeenstandard.com
Our overall positioning bias remains the same: we prefer underweight
exposure to JGBs given the asymmetry around pricing. Despite reasons to             Adam Skerry
believe the inflation trajectory in Japan remains firmly below target, there        Investment Director – Inflation Funds
are features of BoJ policy and the JGB market that suggest asymmetry                +44 (0)131 245 6177
around an underweight position and curve steepeners.The BoJ’s                       adam.skerry@aberdeenstandard.com
comprehensive review led to the introduction of Yield Curve Control and
a new paradigm of thinking. We think that the explicit desire for steeper
                                                                                    Tom Walker
curves, and the BoJ’s longer-term willingness and ability to allow long-end
                                                                                    Investment Director – Inflation Funds
yields to edge higher will continue to support this trade. Our base case is not
                                                                                    +44 (0)131 245 2692
for JGBs to be higher in yield or for inflation to hit target imminently, but we
                                                                                    tom.walker@aberdeenstandard.com
think the asymmetry means the risks for yields are to the upside.
                                                                                    Connor Godsell
Australia Summary - OVERWEIGHT                                            Page 6    Rates Graduate
Recent minutes from the RBA meeting reinforced its view that the most               +44 (0)131 245 0583
likely path for interest rates is up. This comes as no surprise given previous      connor.godsell@aberdeenstandard.com
guidance from Governor Lowe around financial stability. More interesting
was the reference to tightening financial conditions through higher funding
costs for banks. With household leverage a key issue for the RBA and
funding pressures coming through from overseas markets acting as a
headwind for Australian lending, we continue to feel the RBA will look at
weak domestic inflation and wage growth and keep policy rates unchanged.
We remain overweight Australian bonds on a cross-market basis.
US
UNDERWEIGHT

                                                                                                                                                                                           OVERWEIGHT
                                                                                      NEUTRAL
 Market Prices & Moves (as at mid-April 2018)                                                   Weightings

 Instrument                       Current        1 month ago        3 months ago                Fundamentals                                                           UNDERWEIGHT

 10-year UST                       2.78%         2.87% (-9bps)      2.55% (+23bps)              Sentiment                                                                 NEUTRAL

 30-years breakeven                2.12%        2.12% (+/-0bps)     2.04% (+8bps)               Valuation, technical & supply                                          UNDERWEIGHT

 DXY Index                         89.59        89.90 (-0.35%)      90.97 (-1.52%)              Summary                                                                UNDERWEIGHT

   SLI Rates US Treasury Forecasts – 6-months forward                                           Low inflation is embedded across the US yield curve.
                                                                                                How tolerant will bonds be of a steady acceleration in core CPI?
       4.0                                                                                        %
                                                                                                 4.00
       3.5
                                                                                                 3.50
       3.0                                                                                       3.00

       2.5                                                                                       2.50

                                                                                                 2.00
       2.0
                                                                                                 1.50
       1.5
                                                                                                 1.00
       1.0                                                                                       0.50

       0.5                                                                                       0.00

                                                                                                -0.50
       0.0                                                                                              2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
              0           5         10        15        20           25          30
                95% confidence upper bound   Current   6m fwd      Central View                       Core CPI yoy    3m annualised Core CPI                      6m annualised Core CPI
              Source: Bloomberg                                                                    Source: Bloomberg

Fundamentals                                                                                Valuation, technical & supply
Trade war fears have emerged as the Trump regime has initiated                              While the Federal Open Market Committee failed to endorse four
a tariff ‘tit-for-tat’ spat with China. The impact on risk markets has                      rate hikes during 2018, bonds failed to react to the uplift in
been relatively muted overall and Federal Reserve (Fed) chair                               forecasts for 2019/20 and continue to fight the extent of the
Jerome Powell’s latest economic assessment paid the issue little                            tightening cycle. Ten-year Treasury yields have settled around
attention. Core economic conditions have remained upbeat albeit                             2.80% and are struggling to meaningfully breach this level.
with some softening in surveys (although these remain at high                               Almost the opposite effect is underway at 30-year part of the
levels and consistent with 4% annualised GDP). Inflation data                               curve as the long bond keeps getting drawn back to 3% through
continue to suggest a steady increase in the pace of core inflation,                        repeated yield curve flattening. Ten-year yields have broken
but within market expectations. The unemployment rate is                                    above their post-Trump election spike while the 30-year yield
dallying with a breach of 4% but hourly earnings have failed to                             remains within that range. At the moment, pressure from heavier
accelerate above 3% as yet.                                                                 supply and balance sheet adjustment is not acting as a significant
                                                                                            restraint.
Sentiment
Investor sentiment remains relatively muted after price action                              Summary
in March that squeezed positioning both outright and through                                Everyone is more cautious of the outlook as the developing
yield curve flattening. This whipsaw move back from February is                             narrative of a fiscal growth push, higher Treasury supply and
a reminder that bond behavior has not become more                                           (maybe) higher inflation took a sharp knock during March. All of
even-handed and still suggests a disbelief that inflation will                              this was a reminder that bond behaviour continues to lean
increase. Protectionist policies on trade combined with higher                              heavily towards a more dovish stance and a belief that capacity
Fed rate expectations should have led the curve to steepen but                              pressures will not produce more inflation. We disagree.
flattening remains the consistent response. Positioning has felt                            Meanwhile, the bond supply that will test investor appetite will
more balanced in April; however, pension fund demand remains                                not arrive until late 2018 – and the European Central Bank
an influence.                                                                               continues to tread a very patient path towards tapering its QE
                                                                                            programme. We expect steady rate rises from the Fed and
                                                                                            inflation to continue to rise – this combination should ultimately
                                                                                            undermine bonds.
UK
UNDERWEIGHT

                                                                                                                                                                              OVERWEIGHT
                                                                                            NEUTRAL
 Market Prices & Moves (as at mid-April 2018)                                                         Weightings

 Instrument                       Current        1 month ago               3 months ago               Fundamentals                                            OVERWEIGHT

 10-year UKT                       1.39%        1.49% (-10bps)             1.34% (+5bps)              Sentiment                                                 NEUTRAL

 30-year UKT                       1.77%        1.92% (-15bps)             1.84% (-7bps)              Valuation, technical & supply                          UNDERWEIGHT

 GBP Trade Weighted                79.86        78.19 (+2.14%)             77.80 (+2.65%)             Summary                                                   NEUTRAL

   SLI Rates UK Gilt Forecasts – 6-months forward                                                     Improving real wage growth - spend or save?

         2.5                                                                                             %
                                                                                                        6.00
                                                                                                        5.00
         2.0                                                                                            4.00
                                                                                                        3.00
         1.5                                                                                            2.00
                                                                                                        1.00
         1.0                                                                                            0.00
                                                                                                        -1.00

         0.5                                                                                            -2.00
                                                                                                        -3.00

         0.0                                                                                            -4.00
                                                                                                                2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
            0             10           20             30            40              50
                95% confidence upper bound   Current        6m fwd        Central View                     Real Wage Growth     UK Headline CPI YoY   Average Weekly Earnings 3mYoY
              Source: Bloomberg                                                                         Source: Bloomberg

Fundamentals                                                                                      Valuation, technical & supply
The fundamental outlook for the UK remains uncertain. Brexit                                      The technical backdrop for gilts has been supportive recently, with
headwinds continue to weigh on growth relative to peers, with                                     a dearth of long-dated supply in the final quarter of the fiscal year
1.4% GDP growth in 2017 versus an average 2.4% for other                                          coinciding with the largest asset purchase facility reinvestment
developed market economies. The labour market continues to                                        programme to date, and an improvement in the public finances
impress with robust employment growth, record high vacancies                                      signalling a light issuance calendar for 2018/19. From a general
and tentative signs of wage pressures, providing some justification                               valuation perspective, gilts remain rich at current yield levels as
for the hawkish tone adopted by the Bank of England (BoE) on the                                  they retain a Brexit uncertainty premium. We expect to see some
basis of diminishing spare capacity. Yet inflation continues to fall                              retracement to higher yields and a somewhat steeper curve over
faster than anticipated by the BoE, with the most recent headline                                 the quarter as the supply backdrop improves, including nominal
CPI data printing 0.2% below the MPC’s latest forecast. Stronger                                  curve extension in May. However, any steepening is likely to prove
wage growth and rapidly falling inflation will mechanically ease the                              temporary given firmer government regulation on pension scheme
negative real income burden on households, but we antiticapte                                     behaviour encourages hedging activity and the BoE is committed
the corresponding uplift in consumption is likely to be modest due                                to raising policy rates in the face of weak potential growth.
to lingering Brexit uncertainty.
                                                                                                  Summary
Sentiment                                                                                         The BoE monetary policy decision in May is finely balanced
The agreement of a broadly status quo transition deal has                                         following softer growth and inflation data, and recent
significantly reduced the risk of a cliff-edge outcome to Brexit                                  intervention from Governor Carney. Even if the MPC chooses to
negotiations and has in turn had a negative impact on sentiment                                   persist with its supply-side argument and raise rates, we think it
toward gilts. Recent messaging from the MPC has also added to                                     is unlikely it will be able to follow this up with another hike this
this as it maintains a positive outlook on the economy and                                        year. We maintain the view it is too optimistic on the strength of
continues with hawkish communication despite a weak start to                                      the economy and the path of Brexit negotiations. For us, the
the year for economic activity. However, sentiment towards gilts                                  distribution of possible Brexit outcomes remains wide and UK
remains vulnerable to sudden swings in response to volatility in                                  economic activity will likely stagnate and continue to
risk markets or Brexit negotiations. We anticipate sharp sentiment                                underperform other developed economies whilst uncertainty
swings will continue to characterise the gilt market. This will lead                              persists. We anticipate using the less supportive technical
to volatile price action and frequent positioning squeezes.                                       environment over this quarter to reinstate our strategic bias for
                                                                                                  holding overweight gilt positions versus other developed markets
                                                                                                  in the context of a rising yield enviornment.
Europe
UNDERWEIGHT

                                                                                                                                                                            OVERWEIGHT
                                                                                      NEUTRAL
 Market Prices & Moves (as at mid-April 2018)                                                   Weightings

 Instrument                      Current         1 month ago        3 months ago                Fundamentals                                          UNDERWEIGHT

 10-year bund                     0.50%          0.63% (-13bps)     0.58% (-8bps)               Sentiment                                                    NEUTRAL

 10-year BTP                      1.81%          2.00% (-19bps)    1.98% (-17bps)               Valuation, technical & supply                         UNDERWEIGHT

 EUR/USD                           1.24          1.23 (+0.81%)      1.22 (+1.64%)               Summary                                               UNDERWEIGHT

   SLI Rates Bund Yield Forecasts – 6-months forward                                            5-year German bund yield no longer anchored

        2.0                                                                                        0.2

        1.5                                                                                        0.1

                                                                                                   0.0
        1.0

                                                                                                   -0.1
        0.5
                                                                                                   -0.2
        0.0
                                                                                                                                                             ECB decision
                                                                                                   -0.3

       -0.5
                                                                                                   -0.4
                                                                                                                                            December minutes released
       -1.0                                                                                        -0.5
           0            5         10        15          20         25            30                         Sep 17    Oct 17    Nov 17   Dec 17     Jan 18       Feb 18
                95% confidence upper bound   Current    6m fwd     Central View
              Source: Bloomberg                                                                       Source: Bloomberg

Fundamentals                                                                                Valuation, technical & supply
While European economic growth is no longer running at 3%, it is                            Valuations still look expensive, with 2-year rates 20 basis points
still clearly in expansionary mode and sits at odds with the                                below the deposit rate despite very little genuine deflation risk
European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious approach to policy                                   and a clear, albeit gradual, change in language from the ECB
normalisation. As the central bank negotiates the difficult                                 around policy normalisation. QE is not quite disappearing yet,
transition from QE to rates forward guidance, this caution has                              meaning scarcity will continue as a driver for now. A continued
increased. The messaging has been very clear on “persistence,                               appetite for relaxing the deficit rules is negative for bonds. In the
patience and prudence” with regard to policy, which has helped                              very short term, net supply is negative, as redemptions dominate.
stem the sell-off in rates.                                                                 However, this should change over the next three months as
                                                                                            opportunistic syndications in bond issuance prevail.
Sentiment
Market sentiment remains negative on core European bonds and,                               Summary
in particular, Italy, following the country’s inconclusive election.                        Data remains firm in Europe and is fairly uniform across the
This, coupled with the upcoming cessation of QE, is perceived as a                          single currency bloc. The strength is broad-based in terms of
negative combination. However, the key point for us here is that                            internal and external demand. However, continued strong
the Central Bank remains robust in its commitment towards                                   growth cannot coexist with ultra-low policy ‘dovishness’ ad
stemming any standalone peripheral weakness. Scarcity persists                              infinitum. The market now expects no movement on policy rates
in German bunds, but should dissipate as policy tightens.                                   until near the end of Draghi’s tenure (late 2019). Draghi has
Sentiment has proved a powerful barrier to bunds weakening in                               almost been too successful in suppressing expectations and we
response to stronger data.                                                                  expect to see a continuation of the renewed volatility in bunds.
                                                                                            Despite unhelpful market positioning, we anticipate core
                                                                                            European bonds selling off.
Japan
UNDERWEIGHT

                                                                                                                                                                                 OVERWEIGHT
                                                                                            NEUTRAL
 Market Prices & Moves (as at mid-April 2018)                                                         Weightings

 Instrument                       Current          1 month ago            3 months ago                Fundamentals                                                 NEUTRAL

 10-year JGB                       0.03%           0.05% (-2bps)          0.07% (-4bps)               Sentiment                                                    NEUTRAL

 30-year JGB                       0.71%           0.76% (-5bps)          0.83% (-12bps)              Valuation, technical & supply                             UNDERWEIGHT

 USD/JPY                          106.89          106.42 (+0.44%)         111.06 (-3.75%)             Summary                                                   UNDERWEIGHT

   SLI Rates JGB Forecasts – 6-months forward                                                         TANKAN Survey All Enterprise Business Conditions
                                                                                                      – let the good times roll
      2.0
                                                                                                         20

                                                                                                         10
      1.5
                                                                                                          0

      1.0                                                                                                -10

                                                                                                         -20

      0.5                                                                                                -30

                                                                                                         -40
      0.0
         0           5       10      15      20         25         30        35        40                -50

                                                                                                         -60
    -0.5                                                                                                  2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
                95% confidence upper bound   Current      6m fwd         Central View                           All Enterprises TANKAN Survey
              Source: Bloomberg                                                                           Source: Bloomberg

Fundamentals                                                                                      appears to have been established as a range at which the BoJ will
The economic picture in Japan remains strong, although recent                                     intervene on breaches. The cross-currency basis that drove
data has been mixed relative to consensus forecasts. Q4 2017                                      foreign investors to buy front-dated JGBs hedged has moved back
GDP was recorded at 1.6% quarter-on-quarter annualised, the                                       from the most extreme levels. This has reduced the spread
eighth consecutive quarter of positive growth. However, this is                                   pick-up, although it remains firmly in positive territory. This
expected to fall back towards the ‘potential’ annual growth rate of                               structural richness continues to distort rate pricing signals from
0.5% through 2018. National inflation is tentatively ticking up (the                              the front end of the government bond curve. The other side of
headline rate was 1.5% year-on-year for February) but weaker                                      that basis, the relative cheapness of some foreign bonds
core measures and lacklustre wage pressures both appear to                                        (European government bonds in particular) for yen-based
point to a subdued trajectory from here. We continue to believe                                   investors remains a significant marginal mover of global duration.
structural headwinds will limit the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to                              However, looking at the overnight index swap market, we can see
reach its 2% inflation target, but underlying economic conditions                                 that no further cuts are priced in, and the first hike of 10 basis
are more favourable now than in any time in the recent past.                                      points is not fully priced in until 2021.

Sentiment                                                                                         Summary
Sentiment is notoriously difficult to quantify or measure, but it is                              Our overall positioning bias remains the same: we prefer
clear that there is an increasingly dominant narrative in the                                     underweight exposure to JGBs given the asymmetry around
marketplace concerning the growing likelihood of a BoJ policy                                     pricing. Despite reasons to believe the inflation trajectory in Japan
exit. We think this is overdone. Although we position for a change                                remains firmly below target, there are features of BoJ policy and
in policy (such as a shifting of the Yield Curve Control (YCC) target                             the JGB market that suggest asymmetry around an underweight
to a shorter maturity or an increase in the 10-year target) such an                               position and curve steepeners. The BoJ’s comprehensive review
announcement is not in our base case forecast horizon of 3-6                                      led to the introduction of YCC and a new paradigm of thinking.
months. Our underweight position would benefit from such a                                        We think that the explicit desire for steeper curves, and the BoJ’s
move, while we do not see much room for yields to rally lower                                     longer-term willingness and ability to allow long-end yields to
than current levels.                                                                              edge higher, will continue to support this trade. Our base case is
                                                                                                  not for JGBs to be higher in yield or for inflation to hit target
Valuation, technical & supply                                                                     imminently, but we think the asymmetry means the risks for
YCC continues to anchor 10-year Japanese government bond                                          yields are to the upside.
(JGB) yields. Between -10 and +10 basis points around zero
Australia
UNDERWEIGHT

                                                                                                                                                                                      OVERWEIGHT
                                                                                       NEUTRAL
 Market Prices & Moves (as at mid-April 2018)                                                    Weightings

 Instrument                        Current        1 month ago        3 months ago                Fundamentals                                                       OVERWEIGHT

 3-year ACGB                       2.14%          2.17% (-3bps)      2.18% (-4bps)               Sentiment                                                          OVERWEIGHT

 10-year ACGB                      2.66%          2.82% (-16bps)     2.75% (-9bps)               Valuation, technical & supply                                      OVERWEIGHT

 AUD/USD                            0.776         0.787 (-1.40%)     0.792 (-2.02%)              Summary                                                            OVERWEIGHT

   SLI Rates ACGB Forecasts – 6-months forward                                                   Australian funding costs have risen despite RBA dovish guidance
                                                                                                   3 Month Bank Bills (%)
         4.0                                                                                       2.40

         3.5                                                                                       2.20

         3.0                                                                                       2.00

         2.5
                                                                                                   1.80
         2.0
                                                                                                   1.60
         1.5
                                                                                                   1.40
         1.0
                                                                                                   1.20
         0.5

         0.0                                                                                       1.00
            0                 5              10               15                  20                  Jan 17   Mar 17       May 17      Jul 17   Sep 17    Nov 17       Jan 18   Mar 18
                 95% confidence upper bound   Current    6m fwd     Central View                         3 Month Bank Bills           OIS Curve Pricing over 12 Months        RBA Cash Rate
               Source: Bloomberg                                                                    Source: Bloomberg

Fundamentals                                                                                 Valuation, technical & supply
Labour market indicators remain robust, with healthy jobs                                    Bonds in general are attractively priced given the current mix of
growth and increasing labour force participation likely to support                           policy rates and low inflation. Smaller current account deficits will
domestic demand. Wage pressures remain elusive and                                           reduce bond issuance going forward. The Australian Office of
underemployment metrics suggest there is further slack to                                    Financial Management is likely to continue to target longer
absorb before we see a significant lift in average pay. This has the                         issuance as it fills out the bonds curve past 10-years, where we
potential to expose vulnerabilities with regards to household                                see a significant demand for these relatively higher yielding
leverage, which has skyrocketed since the financial crisis as house                          safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, with just one Reserve Bank of
prices soared. Over the past few years, the Australian Prudential                            Australia (RBA) hike priced in over the next 12 months and a high
Regulation Authority (APRA) has introduced measures to slowly                                bar to easing, we prefer forward structures further out the curve
remove some of the vulnerabilities from the housing market.                                  where valuations still look attractive.
Awkwardly, it could come under additional pressure as the Royal
Commission sets its sights on bank lending standards.                                        Summary
Meanwhile, previous APRA measures continue to dampen                                         Recent minutes from the RBA meeting reinforced the message that
conditions, although the market seems able to withstand both                                 it views the most likely path for interest rates as up. This comes as
headwinds for now.                                                                           no surprise given previous guidance from Governor Lowe around
                                                                                             financial stability. More interesting was the reference to tightening
Sentiment                                                                                    financial conditions through higher funding costs, which can be
Sentiment towards Australian bonds remains positive as                                       seen from the chart below. Although RBA commentary had
weaker wage growth and inflation prints continue to push back                                generally been quite supportive for our ‘on hold’ view as can be
fears of policy tightening by the RBA later into 2018. Despite a                             seen from overnight index swap curve pricing, three-month bank
more sanguine policy outlook, shorter-dated bonds have                                       bill lending rates have increased significantly as higher US funding
suffered under the weight of financial tightening in the US                                  rates push up global rates. With household leverage a key issue for
filtering through into Australian funding markets; however,                                  the RBA and funding pressures coming through from overseas
longer-dated bonds are well supported. As always, positioning                                markets acting as a headwind for Australian lending, we continue
remains key and year-to-date price action suggests a return of                               to feel the RBA will look at weak domestic inflation and wage
buyers to the Australian market as investors search for highly                               growth and keep policy rates unchanged. We remain overweight
rated safe havens.                                                                           Australian bonds on a cross-market basis.
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