Government Bonds Outlook - Quarter 2 2018 - Aberdeen Standard Investments
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Government Bonds Outlook Quarter 2 2018 The views represented are those of the Standard Life Investments Rates team. Aberdeen Standard Investments is a brand of the investment businesses of Aberdeen Asset Management and Standard Life Investments. This document is intended for institutional investors and investment professionals only and should not be distributed to or relied upon by retail clients.
Outlook Summary UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT NEUTRAL Summary Rates US Summary - UNDERWEIGHT Page 2 Philip Laing Everyone is more cautious on the outlook as the developing story of a fiscal Investment Director – Head of Rates growth push, higher supply and (maybe) higher inflation took a sharp knock +44 (0)131 245 4516 during March. All of this was a reminder that bond behaviour continues philip.laing@aberdeenstandard.com to lean heavily towards a more dovish stance and a belief that capacity pressures will not produce more inflation. We disagree. Meanwhile, the Jack Kelly bond supply that will test investor appetite will not arrive until late 2018 Investment Director – Global & European Funds – and the ECB continues to tread a very patient path towards tapering its +44 (0)131 245 6883 QE programme. We expect steady rate rises from the Fed and inflation to jack.kelly@aberdeenstandard.com continue to rise – this combination should ultimately undermine bonds. Liam O’Donnell UK Summary - NEUTRAL Page 3 Investment Director – Gilt Funds +44 (0)131 245 6342 The BoE monetary policy decision in May is finely balanced following softer liam.o.donnell@aberdeenstandard.com growth and inflation data, and recent intervention from Governor Carney. Even if the MPC chooses to persist with its supply-side argument and raise Aaron Rock rates, we think it is unlikely it will be able to follow this up with another Investment Director – Gilt Funds hike this year. We maintain the view it is too optimistic on the strength of +44 (0)131 245 2864 the economy and the path of Brexit negotiations. For us, the distribution aaron.rock@aberdeenstandard.com of possible Brexit outcomes remains wide and UK economic activity will likely stagnate and continue to underperform other developed economies whilst uncertainty persists. We anticipate using the less supportive technical Ross Hutchison environment over this quarter to reinstate our strategic bias for holding Investment Director – Gilt, Global & European Funds overweight gilt positions versus other developed markets in the context of a +44 (0)131 245 1440 rising yield enviornment. ross.hutchison@aberdeenstandard.com Findlay Hyde Europe Summary - UNDERWEIGHT Page 4 Investment Analyst – Gilt Funds Data remain firm in Europe and its strength is broad-based, both in terms +44 (0)131 245 8369 of internal and external demand, and is fairly uniform across the bloc. findlay.hyde@aberdeenstandard.com Continued strong growth cannot coexist with ultra-low policy dovishness ad infinitum. The market now expects no movement on policy rates until near the end of Draghi’s tenure (late 2019). Draghi has almost been too successful in suppressing expectations and we expect to see a continuation Inflation of the renewed volatility in bunds. Despite unhelpful market positioning, we expect core European bonds to sell off. Katy Forbes Investment Director – Inflation Funds Japan Summary - UNDERWEIGHT Page 5 +44 (0)131 245 1552 katy.forbes@aberdeenstandard.com Our overall positioning bias remains the same: we prefer underweight exposure to JGBs given the asymmetry around pricing. Despite reasons to Adam Skerry believe the inflation trajectory in Japan remains firmly below target, there Investment Director – Inflation Funds are features of BoJ policy and the JGB market that suggest asymmetry +44 (0)131 245 6177 around an underweight position and curve steepeners.The BoJ’s adam.skerry@aberdeenstandard.com comprehensive review led to the introduction of Yield Curve Control and a new paradigm of thinking. We think that the explicit desire for steeper Tom Walker curves, and the BoJ’s longer-term willingness and ability to allow long-end Investment Director – Inflation Funds yields to edge higher will continue to support this trade. Our base case is not +44 (0)131 245 2692 for JGBs to be higher in yield or for inflation to hit target imminently, but we tom.walker@aberdeenstandard.com think the asymmetry means the risks for yields are to the upside. Connor Godsell Australia Summary - OVERWEIGHT Page 6 Rates Graduate Recent minutes from the RBA meeting reinforced its view that the most +44 (0)131 245 0583 likely path for interest rates is up. This comes as no surprise given previous connor.godsell@aberdeenstandard.com guidance from Governor Lowe around financial stability. More interesting was the reference to tightening financial conditions through higher funding costs for banks. With household leverage a key issue for the RBA and funding pressures coming through from overseas markets acting as a headwind for Australian lending, we continue to feel the RBA will look at weak domestic inflation and wage growth and keep policy rates unchanged. We remain overweight Australian bonds on a cross-market basis.
US UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT NEUTRAL Market Prices & Moves (as at mid-April 2018) Weightings Instrument Current 1 month ago 3 months ago Fundamentals UNDERWEIGHT 10-year UST 2.78% 2.87% (-9bps) 2.55% (+23bps) Sentiment NEUTRAL 30-years breakeven 2.12% 2.12% (+/-0bps) 2.04% (+8bps) Valuation, technical & supply UNDERWEIGHT DXY Index 89.59 89.90 (-0.35%) 90.97 (-1.52%) Summary UNDERWEIGHT SLI Rates US Treasury Forecasts – 6-months forward Low inflation is embedded across the US yield curve. How tolerant will bonds be of a steady acceleration in core CPI? 4.0 % 4.00 3.5 3.50 3.0 3.00 2.5 2.50 2.00 2.0 1.50 1.5 1.00 1.0 0.50 0.5 0.00 -0.50 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 95% confidence upper bound Current 6m fwd Central View Core CPI yoy 3m annualised Core CPI 6m annualised Core CPI Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Fundamentals Valuation, technical & supply Trade war fears have emerged as the Trump regime has initiated While the Federal Open Market Committee failed to endorse four a tariff ‘tit-for-tat’ spat with China. The impact on risk markets has rate hikes during 2018, bonds failed to react to the uplift in been relatively muted overall and Federal Reserve (Fed) chair forecasts for 2019/20 and continue to fight the extent of the Jerome Powell’s latest economic assessment paid the issue little tightening cycle. Ten-year Treasury yields have settled around attention. Core economic conditions have remained upbeat albeit 2.80% and are struggling to meaningfully breach this level. with some softening in surveys (although these remain at high Almost the opposite effect is underway at 30-year part of the levels and consistent with 4% annualised GDP). Inflation data curve as the long bond keeps getting drawn back to 3% through continue to suggest a steady increase in the pace of core inflation, repeated yield curve flattening. Ten-year yields have broken but within market expectations. The unemployment rate is above their post-Trump election spike while the 30-year yield dallying with a breach of 4% but hourly earnings have failed to remains within that range. At the moment, pressure from heavier accelerate above 3% as yet. supply and balance sheet adjustment is not acting as a significant restraint. Sentiment Investor sentiment remains relatively muted after price action Summary in March that squeezed positioning both outright and through Everyone is more cautious of the outlook as the developing yield curve flattening. This whipsaw move back from February is narrative of a fiscal growth push, higher Treasury supply and a reminder that bond behavior has not become more (maybe) higher inflation took a sharp knock during March. All of even-handed and still suggests a disbelief that inflation will this was a reminder that bond behaviour continues to lean increase. Protectionist policies on trade combined with higher heavily towards a more dovish stance and a belief that capacity Fed rate expectations should have led the curve to steepen but pressures will not produce more inflation. We disagree. flattening remains the consistent response. Positioning has felt Meanwhile, the bond supply that will test investor appetite will more balanced in April; however, pension fund demand remains not arrive until late 2018 – and the European Central Bank an influence. continues to tread a very patient path towards tapering its QE programme. We expect steady rate rises from the Fed and inflation to continue to rise – this combination should ultimately undermine bonds.
UK UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT NEUTRAL Market Prices & Moves (as at mid-April 2018) Weightings Instrument Current 1 month ago 3 months ago Fundamentals OVERWEIGHT 10-year UKT 1.39% 1.49% (-10bps) 1.34% (+5bps) Sentiment NEUTRAL 30-year UKT 1.77% 1.92% (-15bps) 1.84% (-7bps) Valuation, technical & supply UNDERWEIGHT GBP Trade Weighted 79.86 78.19 (+2.14%) 77.80 (+2.65%) Summary NEUTRAL SLI Rates UK Gilt Forecasts – 6-months forward Improving real wage growth - spend or save? 2.5 % 6.00 5.00 2.0 4.00 3.00 1.5 2.00 1.00 1.0 0.00 -1.00 0.5 -2.00 -3.00 0.0 -4.00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 10 20 30 40 50 95% confidence upper bound Current 6m fwd Central View Real Wage Growth UK Headline CPI YoY Average Weekly Earnings 3mYoY Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Fundamentals Valuation, technical & supply The fundamental outlook for the UK remains uncertain. Brexit The technical backdrop for gilts has been supportive recently, with headwinds continue to weigh on growth relative to peers, with a dearth of long-dated supply in the final quarter of the fiscal year 1.4% GDP growth in 2017 versus an average 2.4% for other coinciding with the largest asset purchase facility reinvestment developed market economies. The labour market continues to programme to date, and an improvement in the public finances impress with robust employment growth, record high vacancies signalling a light issuance calendar for 2018/19. From a general and tentative signs of wage pressures, providing some justification valuation perspective, gilts remain rich at current yield levels as for the hawkish tone adopted by the Bank of England (BoE) on the they retain a Brexit uncertainty premium. We expect to see some basis of diminishing spare capacity. Yet inflation continues to fall retracement to higher yields and a somewhat steeper curve over faster than anticipated by the BoE, with the most recent headline the quarter as the supply backdrop improves, including nominal CPI data printing 0.2% below the MPC’s latest forecast. Stronger curve extension in May. However, any steepening is likely to prove wage growth and rapidly falling inflation will mechanically ease the temporary given firmer government regulation on pension scheme negative real income burden on households, but we antiticapte behaviour encourages hedging activity and the BoE is committed the corresponding uplift in consumption is likely to be modest due to raising policy rates in the face of weak potential growth. to lingering Brexit uncertainty. Summary Sentiment The BoE monetary policy decision in May is finely balanced The agreement of a broadly status quo transition deal has following softer growth and inflation data, and recent significantly reduced the risk of a cliff-edge outcome to Brexit intervention from Governor Carney. Even if the MPC chooses to negotiations and has in turn had a negative impact on sentiment persist with its supply-side argument and raise rates, we think it toward gilts. Recent messaging from the MPC has also added to is unlikely it will be able to follow this up with another hike this this as it maintains a positive outlook on the economy and year. We maintain the view it is too optimistic on the strength of continues with hawkish communication despite a weak start to the economy and the path of Brexit negotiations. For us, the the year for economic activity. However, sentiment towards gilts distribution of possible Brexit outcomes remains wide and UK remains vulnerable to sudden swings in response to volatility in economic activity will likely stagnate and continue to risk markets or Brexit negotiations. We anticipate sharp sentiment underperform other developed economies whilst uncertainty swings will continue to characterise the gilt market. This will lead persists. We anticipate using the less supportive technical to volatile price action and frequent positioning squeezes. environment over this quarter to reinstate our strategic bias for holding overweight gilt positions versus other developed markets in the context of a rising yield enviornment.
Europe UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT NEUTRAL Market Prices & Moves (as at mid-April 2018) Weightings Instrument Current 1 month ago 3 months ago Fundamentals UNDERWEIGHT 10-year bund 0.50% 0.63% (-13bps) 0.58% (-8bps) Sentiment NEUTRAL 10-year BTP 1.81% 2.00% (-19bps) 1.98% (-17bps) Valuation, technical & supply UNDERWEIGHT EUR/USD 1.24 1.23 (+0.81%) 1.22 (+1.64%) Summary UNDERWEIGHT SLI Rates Bund Yield Forecasts – 6-months forward 5-year German bund yield no longer anchored 2.0 0.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.0 ECB decision -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 December minutes released -1.0 -0.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 95% confidence upper bound Current 6m fwd Central View Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Fundamentals Valuation, technical & supply While European economic growth is no longer running at 3%, it is Valuations still look expensive, with 2-year rates 20 basis points still clearly in expansionary mode and sits at odds with the below the deposit rate despite very little genuine deflation risk European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious approach to policy and a clear, albeit gradual, change in language from the ECB normalisation. As the central bank negotiates the difficult around policy normalisation. QE is not quite disappearing yet, transition from QE to rates forward guidance, this caution has meaning scarcity will continue as a driver for now. A continued increased. The messaging has been very clear on “persistence, appetite for relaxing the deficit rules is negative for bonds. In the patience and prudence” with regard to policy, which has helped very short term, net supply is negative, as redemptions dominate. stem the sell-off in rates. However, this should change over the next three months as opportunistic syndications in bond issuance prevail. Sentiment Market sentiment remains negative on core European bonds and, Summary in particular, Italy, following the country’s inconclusive election. Data remains firm in Europe and is fairly uniform across the This, coupled with the upcoming cessation of QE, is perceived as a single currency bloc. The strength is broad-based in terms of negative combination. However, the key point for us here is that internal and external demand. However, continued strong the Central Bank remains robust in its commitment towards growth cannot coexist with ultra-low policy ‘dovishness’ ad stemming any standalone peripheral weakness. Scarcity persists infinitum. The market now expects no movement on policy rates in German bunds, but should dissipate as policy tightens. until near the end of Draghi’s tenure (late 2019). Draghi has Sentiment has proved a powerful barrier to bunds weakening in almost been too successful in suppressing expectations and we response to stronger data. expect to see a continuation of the renewed volatility in bunds. Despite unhelpful market positioning, we anticipate core European bonds selling off.
Japan UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT NEUTRAL Market Prices & Moves (as at mid-April 2018) Weightings Instrument Current 1 month ago 3 months ago Fundamentals NEUTRAL 10-year JGB 0.03% 0.05% (-2bps) 0.07% (-4bps) Sentiment NEUTRAL 30-year JGB 0.71% 0.76% (-5bps) 0.83% (-12bps) Valuation, technical & supply UNDERWEIGHT USD/JPY 106.89 106.42 (+0.44%) 111.06 (-3.75%) Summary UNDERWEIGHT SLI Rates JGB Forecasts – 6-months forward TANKAN Survey All Enterprise Business Conditions – let the good times roll 2.0 20 10 1.5 0 1.0 -10 -20 0.5 -30 -40 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 -50 -60 -0.5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 95% confidence upper bound Current 6m fwd Central View All Enterprises TANKAN Survey Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Fundamentals appears to have been established as a range at which the BoJ will The economic picture in Japan remains strong, although recent intervene on breaches. The cross-currency basis that drove data has been mixed relative to consensus forecasts. Q4 2017 foreign investors to buy front-dated JGBs hedged has moved back GDP was recorded at 1.6% quarter-on-quarter annualised, the from the most extreme levels. This has reduced the spread eighth consecutive quarter of positive growth. However, this is pick-up, although it remains firmly in positive territory. This expected to fall back towards the ‘potential’ annual growth rate of structural richness continues to distort rate pricing signals from 0.5% through 2018. National inflation is tentatively ticking up (the the front end of the government bond curve. The other side of headline rate was 1.5% year-on-year for February) but weaker that basis, the relative cheapness of some foreign bonds core measures and lacklustre wage pressures both appear to (European government bonds in particular) for yen-based point to a subdued trajectory from here. We continue to believe investors remains a significant marginal mover of global duration. structural headwinds will limit the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to However, looking at the overnight index swap market, we can see reach its 2% inflation target, but underlying economic conditions that no further cuts are priced in, and the first hike of 10 basis are more favourable now than in any time in the recent past. points is not fully priced in until 2021. Sentiment Summary Sentiment is notoriously difficult to quantify or measure, but it is Our overall positioning bias remains the same: we prefer clear that there is an increasingly dominant narrative in the underweight exposure to JGBs given the asymmetry around marketplace concerning the growing likelihood of a BoJ policy pricing. Despite reasons to believe the inflation trajectory in Japan exit. We think this is overdone. Although we position for a change remains firmly below target, there are features of BoJ policy and in policy (such as a shifting of the Yield Curve Control (YCC) target the JGB market that suggest asymmetry around an underweight to a shorter maturity or an increase in the 10-year target) such an position and curve steepeners. The BoJ’s comprehensive review announcement is not in our base case forecast horizon of 3-6 led to the introduction of YCC and a new paradigm of thinking. months. Our underweight position would benefit from such a We think that the explicit desire for steeper curves, and the BoJ’s move, while we do not see much room for yields to rally lower longer-term willingness and ability to allow long-end yields to than current levels. edge higher, will continue to support this trade. Our base case is not for JGBs to be higher in yield or for inflation to hit target Valuation, technical & supply imminently, but we think the asymmetry means the risks for YCC continues to anchor 10-year Japanese government bond yields are to the upside. (JGB) yields. Between -10 and +10 basis points around zero
Australia UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT NEUTRAL Market Prices & Moves (as at mid-April 2018) Weightings Instrument Current 1 month ago 3 months ago Fundamentals OVERWEIGHT 3-year ACGB 2.14% 2.17% (-3bps) 2.18% (-4bps) Sentiment OVERWEIGHT 10-year ACGB 2.66% 2.82% (-16bps) 2.75% (-9bps) Valuation, technical & supply OVERWEIGHT AUD/USD 0.776 0.787 (-1.40%) 0.792 (-2.02%) Summary OVERWEIGHT SLI Rates ACGB Forecasts – 6-months forward Australian funding costs have risen despite RBA dovish guidance 3 Month Bank Bills (%) 4.0 2.40 3.5 2.20 3.0 2.00 2.5 1.80 2.0 1.60 1.5 1.40 1.0 1.20 0.5 0.0 1.00 0 5 10 15 20 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 95% confidence upper bound Current 6m fwd Central View 3 Month Bank Bills OIS Curve Pricing over 12 Months RBA Cash Rate Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Fundamentals Valuation, technical & supply Labour market indicators remain robust, with healthy jobs Bonds in general are attractively priced given the current mix of growth and increasing labour force participation likely to support policy rates and low inflation. Smaller current account deficits will domestic demand. Wage pressures remain elusive and reduce bond issuance going forward. The Australian Office of underemployment metrics suggest there is further slack to Financial Management is likely to continue to target longer absorb before we see a significant lift in average pay. This has the issuance as it fills out the bonds curve past 10-years, where we potential to expose vulnerabilities with regards to household see a significant demand for these relatively higher yielding leverage, which has skyrocketed since the financial crisis as house safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, with just one Reserve Bank of prices soared. Over the past few years, the Australian Prudential Australia (RBA) hike priced in over the next 12 months and a high Regulation Authority (APRA) has introduced measures to slowly bar to easing, we prefer forward structures further out the curve remove some of the vulnerabilities from the housing market. where valuations still look attractive. Awkwardly, it could come under additional pressure as the Royal Commission sets its sights on bank lending standards. Summary Meanwhile, previous APRA measures continue to dampen Recent minutes from the RBA meeting reinforced the message that conditions, although the market seems able to withstand both it views the most likely path for interest rates as up. This comes as headwinds for now. no surprise given previous guidance from Governor Lowe around financial stability. More interesting was the reference to tightening Sentiment financial conditions through higher funding costs, which can be Sentiment towards Australian bonds remains positive as seen from the chart below. Although RBA commentary had weaker wage growth and inflation prints continue to push back generally been quite supportive for our ‘on hold’ view as can be fears of policy tightening by the RBA later into 2018. Despite a seen from overnight index swap curve pricing, three-month bank more sanguine policy outlook, shorter-dated bonds have bill lending rates have increased significantly as higher US funding suffered under the weight of financial tightening in the US rates push up global rates. With household leverage a key issue for filtering through into Australian funding markets; however, the RBA and funding pressures coming through from overseas longer-dated bonds are well supported. As always, positioning markets acting as a headwind for Australian lending, we continue remains key and year-to-date price action suggests a return of to feel the RBA will look at weak domestic inflation and wage buyers to the Australian market as investors search for highly growth and keep policy rates unchanged. We remain overweight rated safe havens. Australian bonds on a cross-market basis.
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