Goldman Sachs Seventh Annual European Chemicals Conference - London, 16 March 2018 - K+S Aktiengesellschaft
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K+S Aktiengesellschaft Goldman Sachs Seventh Annual European Chemicals Conference London, 16 March 2018 Thorsten Boeckers, CFO Martin Heistermann, Senior Investor Relations Manager
K+S Group Disclaimer No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information or opinions contained in the Presentation or on its completeness, accuracy of fairness. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its respective directors, officers, employees, agents or advisers as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in the Presentation and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of them for any such information or opinions. In particular, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on any projections, targets, ambitions, estimates or forecasts contained in this Presentation and nothing in this Presentation is or should be relied on as a promise or representation as to the future. This presentation contains facts and forecasts that relate to the future development of the K+S Group and its companies. The forecasts are estimates that we have made on the basis of all the information available to us at this moment in time. Should the assumptions underlying these forecasts prove not to be correct or should certain risks – such as those referred to in the Annual Report – materialise, actual developments and events may deviate from current expectations. Given these risks, uncertainties and other factors, recipients of this document are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forecasts. This Presentation is subject to change. In particular, certain financial results presented herein are unaudited, and may still be undergoing review by the Company’s accountants. The Company may not notify you of changes and disclaims any obligation to update or revise any statements, in particular forward-looking statements, to reflect future events or developments, save for the making of such disclosures as are required by the provisions of statue. Thus statements contained in this Presentation should not be unduly relied upon and past events or performance should not be taken as a guarantee or indication of future events or performance. This presentation has been prepared for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer, an invitation or a recommendation to purchase or sell securities issued by K+S Aktiengesellschaft or any company of the K+S Group in any jurisdiction. K+S Group 2
K+S Group Content A K+S’ Unique Strategic Position 1 Potash and Magnesium Products 2 Salt B Current Trading C Outlook K+S Group 3
K+S Group A fresh perspective on our existing portfolio Production Customer focus focus Key financials 2017 (€m) • MOP 1,428 39% 1 • Premium Fertilizers 225 16% Agriculture • Fertigation Revenue EBITDA- Revenue EBITDA share Margin • Chemical 1,176 32% Potash Salt 2 20% • Pharma • Ind. Specialties 238 Industry • Food Processing Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA- + share Margin 566 16% 18% 3 • De-Icing 104 Communities Revenue EBITDA Revenue share EBITDA- Margin 4 • Consumers 454 57 13% 12% Consumers Revenue EBITDA Revenue share EBITDA- Margin K+S Group 4
K+S Group 'One K+S' creates the most value for all stakeholders • "Customer first" approach reflected in new business cut along customer segments Customers • Spotlights on our hidden champions • Measureable synergies from leveraging our scale Shareholders • Ample growth and profitability opportunities identified • Reduced complexity, less overhead • More attractive career options in integrated Employees business • Clear commitment to our production sites • Clear commitment to sustainability • Continued, value-adding investments in Society Germany and abroad K+S Group 5
K+S Group We will implement our new strategy in two phases Phase 1: Transformation Phase 2: Growth 2017 2020 2030 Reduce indebtedness Tapping the full potential of our existing assets Realize synergies Exploring new adjacent growth areas Advance corporate culture Increased share of specialties Shaping the organization and focusing towards our clients Net debt/ halved Investment grade rating EBITDA-Ambition €3bn EBITDA vs. H1/2017 achieved in 2023 ROCE >15% Synergies >€150m Revenue growth >4% beyond 2030 K+S Group 6
K+S Group Phase 1: We will transform ourselves and create a solid financial base Strengthen Shaping the financial base organization Realize Synergies Customer first: Lift our potential Operations: Lean management • Focus on customer segments Agriculture, Industry, Operations: Digital mining Communities and Consumers to better penetrate high-margin, Procurement non-commodity business > € 150m Evaluate tailings piles optimization p.a. run rate after inflation Increase financial transparency by 2020 YE Sales excellence • Make performance transparent along new customer segments Supply chain and logistics G&A optimization Build ‘One Company’ • Commit to existing portfolio Reduce indebtedness • Break up silos and create the foundation to generate synergies K+S Group 7
K+S Group We aim for a positive free cash flow in 2019 Phase 1: Transformation Phase 2: Growth Free cash flow bridge approximation 2016-2020 Based on current portfolio – inorganic growth not included Ambition + CapEx Investment grade rating + Werra + Bethune achieved in 2023 - FX Fully invested in - WC best class assets EBITDA €3bn like Bethune ROCE >15% Actual 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2030 2016 Massive positive swing in free cash flow K+S Group 8
K+S Group Phase 2: Growth opportunities in our Customer Segments Revenue shares and CAGR 2016-2019-2030 Growth initiatives from 2020 7% 5% Organic ~€11bn 2% Inorganic • Tapping the potential of existing assets and expansion options • Expand offering of specialty fertilizers 45% • Develop strong position in fertigation • Develop advanced business models (e.g. agro- platform in Africa) 8% • Strengthen portfolio of specialty industrial products • Expand offering for the pharma industry 35% €3.5bn 43% • Grow into Asia Agriculture 37% 9% 28% • Leverage branding capabilities in consumer salt Industry 33% 6% 10% • Grow into Asia 12% Consumers 13% 10% • Strengthen position in existing markets Communities 17% 17% 4% 2016 2019 2030 K+S Group 9
K+S Group What we’ve done – what our next steps are Update on Shaping 2030 ! Setting up project management ! Preparing to decide on new organization and reporting lines Ongoing tasks ! Start of bottom-up validation of synergies (> €150 m by 2020) ! Management remuneration (LTI) linked to share price performance ! First concept about future organization and KPIs ! Bottom-up validation of synergies done – confident to reach at least € 150 m ! Projects to lift synergies are starting Next to come ! Final concept about future organization incl. KPIs done ! Sustainability targets and KPIs defined. Possible use of solid residues clarified We will keep you posted with updates on our Strategy in H1/2018 and at a CMD at 5 Sept 18 K+S Group 10
K+S Group Content A K+S’ Unique Strategic Position 1 Potash and Magnesium Products 2 Salt B Current Trading C Outlook K+S Group 11
Potash and Magnesium Products Long-Term Dynamics Positive for Fertilizer Less arable land – Potash is indispensable for plant growth but more protein consumption per capita Jahr 1960 2010 2050 Global population development 3.0 billion 6.9 billion 9.7 billion Arable Land per capita 4.300 m2 2.100 m2 1.800 m2 Protein per capita 60 g/ day 80 g/ day 130 g/ day1 “The growth and yield of plants are limited by the nutrient which is in shortest supply” Sources: UN, World Population Prospects, 2012 Revision, UNDP, 2013; FAOStat 2014 Justus von Liebig, 'The Natural Laws of Husbandry', 1863 FAO 2014 - forecasts based on the expected increase in animal protein K+S Group 12
Potash and Magnesium Products Unique Portfolio Makes us More Robust Health Care & Industrial Nutrition Broad portfolio of specialty products products 0.8 Industrial potash Flexibility KCL (MOP) 3.2 6.7 Kieserite Stability Specialties 2.7 Korn-Kali Partly following different trends and seasons SOP Basis: 2017 Sales volumes in million tons South America Close proximity to our main customers Europe 16% provide logistical advantages 59% Asia 17% Shipments to overseas customers at competitive costs from Hamburg harbor Other 8% Strong and long-standing customer Basis: 2017 Revenues relationships K+S Group 13
Potash and Magnesium Products Potash Price Comparisons MOP gran. Europe vs. Brazil (Source: FMB) US$/t €/t 600 600 Brazil 500 (US$/t, Granular, cfr) 500 400 400 300 300 Europe (€/t, Granular, cfr) 200 200 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 K+S average selling price versus selected peers (local currencies) K+S K+S Basis: Q1 2014 Basis: Q1 2012 Peers Peers Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 K+S Group 14
Potash and Magnesium Products New approach to environmental challenges works Track Record Saline wastewater significantly reduced ! Implementation of measures to limit the Amount in million cubic meter risk of outage days 20 ! KCF 1 commissioned (reduction of saline wastewater by 20%) ! K+S mandated advisor K-UTEC to carry 14 out a concept to further reduce saline wastewater 7 7 ! Expansion of tailings pile capacity 5.5 Hattorf (Werra): ‘Early commencement’ granted ! K+S reaches settlement with BUND ! Thuringian municipality of Gerstungen 1997 2006 2016 2017 2018 and K+S end their long-lasting dispute Discharge Deep-well Measures Gap ! Preparing for future approval procedures and further wastewater reductions 1) Kainite Crystallization and Flotation Facility K+S Group 15
Potash and Magnesium Products Bethune … up and running "With Bethune, the most modern potash facility in the world, we are pushing into a new dimension. We are now producing potash on two continents,“ said Dr. Burkhard Lohr (CEO of K+S). K+S Group 16
Potash and Magnesium Products Bethune - Strengthening our Global Presence Expanding our current production portfolio in Germany with a North American production site Second source supplier Securing a good asset base with competitive production costs Sales and distribution through existing distribution structures of the K+S Group Exclusive outline agreement with Koch Fertilizer about supply and sales of Potash fertilizers in the US China India North America Regional growth projects in China and SEA South East Asia Flexible multi-product strategy South America K+S Group 17
K+S Group Content A K+S’ Unique Strategic Position 1 Potash and Magnesium Products 2 Salt B Current Trading C Outlook K+S Group 18
Salt Long-Term Dynamics in Salt Demand Demand driven by … Product category Winter weather conditions De-Icing Infrastructure development Consumer Increasing standard of living Food processing Population growth Economic growth and Industrial industrialisation Urbanization Chemical Low single-digit demand growth p.a. to 2018 1 1 Source: Roskill K+S Group 19
Salt Inevitable for life De-Icing Consumer Food processing Industrial Chemical Main Applications: Main Applications: Main Applications: Main Applications: Main Applications: Winter road Table salt Food processing Water treatment Chemical industry maintenance Dishwasher care industry Drilling fluids Chlor-Alkali services Baking industry Animal feed processes (→ PVC) Water softening Commercial users Condiment and Infusion, dialysis Polycarbonates , Pool chlorination Private preservative agent solutions MDI (Isocyanat) Body care households Pharmaceuticals (→ plastics, synthetic resin) Preserving of fish Dyeing works Synthetic Soda Ash (→ glass) Leather treatment K+S Group 20
Salt Unrivalled Global Production Network Potential Expansion into Asia-Pacific More than 30 assets on 3 continents allow close proximity to Competitive edge: customers in a business that is highly freight-cost sensitive Unique natural hedge Unrivalled global Broad range of products due to variety of production methods production network Best in class supply chain assets and competence Industry best cost production in Chile K+S Group 21
Salt Diverse Regional and Product Portfolio Salt for chemical use Food processing Normalized Revenue Industrial Distribution Consumer 1 De-icing adjusted to normal winter K+S Group 22
Salt Presence in Attractive De-Icing Markets Eastern Canada Scandinavia US East Coast Central Europe Great Lakes Indicative regional strength of winter 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Europe North America K+S Group 23
K+S Group Content A K+S’ Unique Strategic Position 1 Potash and Magnesium Products 2 Salt B Current Trading C Outlook K+S Group 24
K+S Group P&L € million Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 FY/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 FY/17 Revenues 1,096 732 688 941 3,457 1,126 742 723 1,032 3,627 EBITDA 285 83 56 94 519 211 102 77 187 577 Margin 26% 11% 8% 10% 15% 19% 14% 11% 18% 16% EBIT I 218 15 -31 28 229 137 29 12 93 271 Financial result -13 -15 -9 -15 -52 -9 -4 -9 -5 -26 EBT, adjusted 205 0 -41 13 177 129 25 3 87 244 Tax rate, adjusted 28% 29% 34% 23% 26% 27% 24% 33% 66% 41% Net income, adjusted 148 0 -27 10 131 95 19 2 30 145 EPS, adjusted 0.77 0.00 -0.14 0.05 0.68 0.49 0.10 0.01 0.16 0.76 Tangibly improved operating earnings EBITDA and EBIT I, despite €43m effect for Sigmundshall closure Potash pricing continues to recover, SOP prices have bottomed out Higher product availability at the integrated Werra plant; no days of outages in Q4/17 Higher volumes in Salt in Q4 The adjusted key figures only include realized operating forecast hedges of the respective reporting period in EBIT I. In addition, related effects on deferred and cash taxes are also excluded. K+S Group 25
K+S Group Cash Flow and Balance Sheet € million Q1/16 H1/16 9M/16 FY/16 Q1/17 H1/17 9M/17 FY/17 Operating cash flow 294 359 390 445 267 384 383 307 - Investing cash flow -243 -537 -847 -1,222 -212 -410 -623 -697 (pre sale/ purchase of securities) Adjusted free cash flow 50 -178 -456 -777 55 -26 -241 -390 CapEx 280 643 904 1,171 277 410 568 811 Net debt (-) -2,367 -2,860 -3,180 -3,584 -3,614 -3,745 -3,939 -4,141 t/o Net financial debt (-) -1,315 -1,761 -2,052 -2,401 -2,440 -2,592 -2,780 -2,974 Net debt/ EBITDA (LTM) 2.5 3.6 4.9 6.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 7.2 Equity ratio 52% 49% 48% 47% 48% 45% 44% 43% Operating cash flow lower than last year due to higher Working Capital and FX CapEx came down as high investments at Bethune in Canada came to an end; FCF improved significantly Net Debt/ EBITDA peaked in 2017 K+S Group 26
K+S Group Potash and Magnesium Products € million Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 FY/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 FY/17 Revenues 461 371 302 399 1,532 474 387 358 485 1,704 EBITDA 137 50 5 -8 185 81 71 42 74 269 Margin 30% 14% 2% -2% 12% 17% 18% 12% 15% 16% EBIT 102 15 -49 -35 34 42 31 2 6 81 Avg. selling price (€/t) 272 250 239 246 253 260 252 253 250 254 Sales volumes (million tons) 1.69 1.48 1.26 1.62 6.06 1.82 1.54 1.41 1.94 6.71 Cash Unit Costs 1 192 217 236 251 222 216 205 224 212 214 Demand remains strong across all regions ASP slightly up in Q4 (YoY) due to higher product availability and better market pricing; sequentially down as Bethune volumes came in Adverse FX-effect Cash unit costs peaked Production problems at Werra plant addressed 1 (Revenues – EBITDA) / Sales volumes K+S Group 27
K+S Group Salt € million Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 FY/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 FY/17 Revenues 595 319 346 502 1,762 611 316 329 507 1,762 EBITDA 150 33 47 93 322 135 29 37 124 325 Margin 25% 10% 14% 18% 18% 22% 9% 11% 24% 18% EBIT 123 5 18 58 204 106 0 17 100 223 Sales volumes (million tons) 7.1 2.9 3.5 5.8 19.4 7.5 2.8 3.5 6.5 20.3 De-icing 4.9 0.6 1.0 3.5 10.1 5.1 0.6 1.0 4.0 10.7 Non de-icing 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.3 9.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.5 9.7 Average selling prices (€) De-icing 64 53 52 59 60 61 54 50 55 58 Non de-icing 122 123 113 124 120 120 122 109 110 115 Non de-icing: Vols up in Q4 (YoY), but prices down due to higher share of chemical/industrial salt De-icing: Better demand in Europe more than offsets weak US-pricing in Q4/17 On track to reach SALT 2020 EBITDA-target of at least € 400m K+S Group 28
K+S Group Debt Instruments (as of Dec. 31, 2017) Bonds Bank loans, Schuldschein Syndicated credit Leasing, others loans line1 € 2.1 about € 765 billion million € 1 billion € 220 avg. maturity: million avg. maturity: expires in 2020 3.75 yrs 2.75 yrs 1 As an alternative instrument a Commercial Paper program is in place K+S Group 29
K+S Group Debt Profile Debt Instruments Bond IV € 500 million (mat. 2018; coupon 3.125%) Schuldschein € 325 million 3.000 (mat. 2019) Loan € 45 million (mat. 2020) 2.500 Schuldschein € 335 million (mat. 2021) Bond III € 500 million 2.000 (mat. 2021; coupon 4.125%) Bond II € 500 million (mat. 2022; coupon 3.000%) Schuldschein € 65 million 1.500 (mat. 2022) Bond I € 625 million (mat. 2023, coupon 2.625%) 1.000 Schuldschein € 40 million (mat. 2023) 500 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 As further liquidity source a syndicated credit line facility amounting to € 1 billion and a Commercial Paper program are in place until 2020 K+S Group 30
K+S Group NetDebt/EBITDA development 8,0 7.2 6.9 7,0 6,0 5,0 X-fach 4,0 3.2 3.3 3,0 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 2,0 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.8 1,0 Legacy 0,0 K+S Group 31
K+S Group Dividend Policy 50% 10% Target payout ratio of 40-50% Earnings-based dividend 45% policy 40% 8% Payout ratio of 40 – 50% of 35% adjusted net profit 30% 6% 25% Dividend proposal for 2017: € 0.35 per share 20% 4% 15% 10% 2% 5% 0% 0% 1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Payout ratio (lhs) Dividend yield (rhs) 2 1 Proposal to the AGM. 2 Based on year-end share prices K+S Group 32
K+S Group Currency Management Transaction Translation Freight/ other costs CAD/EUR USD/EUR USD/CAD USD/EUR K+S Group 33
K+S Group Currency Management 2018 1,25 1,45 Limitation of risk Worst Case Limitation of chance 1,20 1,40 Planned EUR/USD USD/CAD EUR/USD 1,15 1,35 Best Case Best Case 1,10 1,30 Planned USD/CAD Worst Case 1,05 1,25 Limitation of chance Limitation of risk 1,00 1,20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017: Realized average exchange rate: 1.12 EUR/USD (incl. premium) 2017: no operational hedging transactions 2018: Anticipated average exchange rate: 1.15 EUR/USD (incl. premium)¹ 2018: Anticipated average exchange rate: 1.31 USD/CAD (incl. premium)² Hedging of transaction risks, basis USD budget net position Cash flow view: most of anticipated net position hedged Hedging is used if an underlying transaction exists or is expected with great probability ¹ Premise: based on planned rate of 1.20 EUR/USD for 2018; ² Premise: based on planned rate of 1.25 USD/CAD for 2018 K+S Group 34
K+S Group Content A K+S’ Unique Strategic Position 1 Potash and Magnesium Products 2 Salt B Current Trading C Outlook K+S Group 35
K+S Group Guidance 2018: EBITDA1 Significant increase2 € million Main effects: Main effects: - Planning assumption: + Sigmundshall 1.20 EUR/USD Main effects: Main effects: + Potash volumes + Potash prices (outage days) (slight increase) + Tangibly higher salt volumes 577 Main effects: + Higher sales + Cost improvement Actual Bethune Price Volume Currency Other 2018e 2017 effects (net) 1 The basis for EBITDA is EBIT I, that only includes the realized result from operating forecast hedges. 2 Based on average weather conditions in both business units. K+S Group 36
K+S Group Guidance: Housekeeping items FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018e Group Revenues € 3.5bn € 3.6 bn tangible increase EBITDA € 519m € 577m significant increase EBIT I € 229m € 271m significant increase significantly more Financial result € -52m € -26m negative Significant Free cash flow, adjusted € -777 € -390 improvement CapEx € 1.2bn € 811m significant decrease Average fx-rate (EUR/USD) 1.11 1.13 1.20 Production Outage Days (Werra) ~200 days ~25 days 0 days Potash and Magnesium Products Global sales volumes1 ~ 66m tons ~ 69m tons At least stable K+S sales volumes 6.1m tons 6.7m tons significant increase Average selling price 253 €/t 254 €/t slight increase Salt K+S sales volumes 19m tons 20m tons tangible increase t/o de-icing 10m tons 11m tons tangible increase 1 Incl. ̴ 4mt of potassium sulphate and potash grades with lower mineral content K+S Group 37
K+S Group IR Contact Details K+S Aktiengesellschaft Bertha-von-Suttner-Str. 7 34131 Kassel (Germany) E-mail: investor-relations@k-plus-s.com Homepage: www.k-plus-s.com IR-website: www.k-plus-s.com/ir Lutz Grüten Katharina Volkmar Head of Investor Relations Roadshow Management Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1460 Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1100 Fax: +49 561 / 9301-2425 Fax: +49 561 / 9301-2425 lutz.grueten@k-plus-s.com katharina.volkmar@k-plus-s.com Laura Schumbera Martin Heistermann Alexander Enge Junior Investor Relations Manager Senior Investor Relations Manager Investor Relations Manager Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1607 Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1403 Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1885 Fax: +49 561 / 9301-2425 Fax: +49 561 / 9301-2425 Fax: +49 561 / 9301-2425 laura.schumbera@k-plus-s.com martin.heistermann@k-plus-s.com alexander.enge@k-plus-s.com K+S Group 38
K+S Group Financial Calendar CFO Roadshow Frankfurt, MainFirst 15 March 2018 Goldman Sachs 7th European Chemicals Conference with CFO, London 16 March 2018 Non Deal Fixed Income Roadshow Frankfurt, DZ Bank 21 March 2018 Non Deal Fixed Income Roadshow London, Goldman 22 March 2018 Roadshow Paris, Bank of America Merrill Lynch 6 April 2018 Roadshow Zurich, UBS 11 April 2018 Solventis Aktienforum with CFO, Frankfurt 12 April 2018 Roadshow Middle East with CFO, Bankhaus Lampe 19 April 2018 Bankhaus Lampe Deutschlandkonferenz, Baden-Baden 20 April 2018 Quarterly Report Q1/18 14 May 2018 Annual General Meeting 15 May 2018 Half-yearly Financial Report H1/18 14 August 2018 Capital Markets Day in Bethune, Canada (save-the-date) 5 September 2018 K+S Group 39
K+S Group
K+S Group K+S Share K+S ADR K+S Bond 12/2018 K+S Bond 12/2021 K+S Bond 06/2022 K+S Bond 04/2023 • WKN: KSAG88 • CUSIP: 48265W108 • WKN: A1Y CR4 • WKN: A1Y CR5 • WKN: A1P GZ8 • WKN: A2E 4U9 • ISIN: DE000KSAG888 • ADR Ticker-Symbol: • ISIN: XS0997941199 • ISIN: XS0997941355 • ISIN: DE000A1PGZ82 • ISIN: XS1591416679 • Ticker-Symbols: Bloomberg: KPLUY / Bloomberg SDF / Reuters: KPLUY.PK Reuters SDFG K+S Aktiengesellschaft · Bertha-von-Suttner-Straße 7 · 34131 Kassel | Germany · Internet: www.k-plus-s.com Investor Relations · phone: +49 (0)561 / 9301-1100 · fax: +49 (0)561 / 9301-2425 · email: investor-relations@k-plus-s.com K+S Group
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