Global fi rms in 2020 The next decade of change for organisations and workers A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit - SHRM
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Global firms in 2020 The next decade of change for organisations and workers A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit Sponsored by
Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
Preface
Global firms in 2020: The next decade of change for organisations and workers is an Economist Intelligence
Unit report, sponsored by the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM). The Economist
Intelligence Unit conducted the survey and analysis and wrote the report. The findings and views
expressed in the report do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor.
The report’s quantitative findings come from a survey of 479 senior executives, conducted in June and
July 2010. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s editorial team designed the survey. Laura Moustakerski was
the author of the report and Gilda Stahl was the editor. Mike Kenny was responsible for the design.
To supplement the quantitative survey results, the Economist Intelligence Unit conducted in-depth
interviews with relevant experts. We would like to thank all interviewees for their time and insights.
September 2010
© Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 1Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
Interviewees
Thierry Baril Donna Miller
Executive Vice-president, HR Human Resources Director, Europe
Airbus Enterprise Rent-A-Car
Mary Barra Shiv Nadar
Vice-president, Global HR Chairman and Chief Strategy Officer
GM HCL Technologies
Michael Beer Robert Orth
Professor Emeritus Director Human Resources, Australia, New Zealand
Harvard Business School IBM
Chairman
TruePoint Frank Persico
Vice-president of Workforce Learning and Development
Lazlo Bock IBM
Vice-president People Operations
Google Sir Martin Sorrell
CEO
Stephen Burnett WPP
Associate Dean of Executive Education
Kellogg School of Management Tony Voller
Northwestern University Senior Vice-president
EMEA Human Resources and Global Talent
Ajay Dhir Intercontinental Hotel Group
Group Chief Information Officer
Jindal Steel Jim Wall
Managing Director-Talent
Nandita Gurjar Chief Diversity Officer
Senior Vice-president Deloitte
Group Head HR
Infosys Bin Wolfe
Asia-Pacific People Leader
Jeff Joeres Ernst & Young
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Manpower
2 © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
Contents
Preface 1
Executive summary 4
Introduction 7
The global organisation 8
Expanding into emerging markets 8
The benefits and pitfalls of size 9
Forced conversation at Google 9
Localising management 10
Local authority, central oversight 11
Engineers unite at GM 12
Effects of change on workers 13
Shifting demographics 13
The fluctuating workforce 14
IBM: Watching workers 15
Diversity becomes more diverse 16
Training in soft skills 17
Implications for executives 18
Understanding the worker 18
Building a collaborative corporate culture 19
Tapping into the global talent pool 20
Enterprise Rent-A-Car: Super recruiter 21
Conclusion 22
Appendix 23
© Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 3Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
Executive summary
O ver the past decade, executives have witnessed a significant transformation of their companies.
Firms have embraced the Internet for both commerce and communication. Globalisation, increasing
economic interdependence between nations and a financial crisis have forced management to act—and
workers to adapt—quickly. Considering the speed of change over the last ten years, what will the typical
company look like in 2020? And what can corporate leaders do to prepare the workforce for change?
Over the next decade, changes in the way companies operate will not be revolutionary or disruptive;
they will be an extension of the evolution already visible at many firms today. According to research
conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit, companies will become larger and more global in the
next ten years, handling operations in more countries than they do today. Despite rapid expansion, they
will also be more globally integrated, with better information flow and collaboration across borders.
They will be less centralised, but will not be fully decentralised. Local operations will be free to move on
opportunities that further the global organisation while headquarters will continue to play an important
role in setting the tone and values of the company.
Companies will also be flatter. Employees will be given greater decision-making responsibility, often
at an earlier stage in their careers. Companies will favour a more fluctuating workforce, to better match
shifting talent needs across global operations. But this will have a cost: the average worker will feel
reduced loyalty to the organisation, which may lead to greater employee churn.
The rise of emerging markets, the global financial crisis and demographic pressures are among the
forces driving companies to expand overseas. As they do so, they will:
l Take on more contingent workers. The proportion of contingent to permanent workers will shift in
favour of the former. The workforce will be larger and spread over more countries, making crossborder
communication more important—and more challenging. Seventy-five percent of survey respondents
expect their company to enter or compete in more foreign markets over the coming ten years (only
16% do not expect to; the remainder are unsure). Yet most survey respondents see significant
cultural and linguistic barriers to hiring globally, and most do not believe their company excels at
collaboration.
l Localise management. Companies will continue to localise the management of overseas operations to
leverage native managers’ keener cultural understanding of customers and employees. But in a world
where cross-border interaction is expected to become more intense, a global outlook will be just as
4 © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010Global firms in 2020
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important as local knowledge. Managers with high potential will still take on overseas assignments to
broaden their experience. The difference, say interviewees for this report, will be that these moves will
tend to be short-term, and managers will move from emerging markets to developed markets rather
than merely the other way around.
Fifty-four percent of survey respondents expect management to be more international in composition;
39% expect managers to better represent the countries where the company does business; and 32%
expect managers to travel more frequently among overseas offices. These expectations are much
more striking among the interviewees, who place local knowledge and a global perspective as two of
the most important qualities of a modern manager. They see localisation, coupled with short-term
international movement, as critical to establishing an integrated global culture. Taken alone, neither
localisation of overseas management nor the placement of expatriate managers from headquarters
into overseas operations builds a common culture. And it is this unified culture that will define
successful global companies.
Workers, who will increasingly be sourced from foreign markets, will be hired and trained to fit into the
global organisation. Among the changes to the workforce that are expected to materialise:
l Increasing workforce flux. More roles will be automated or outsourced, and more workers will be
contingent (contract-based), mobile or work flexible hours: 67% of respondents expect a growing
proportion of roles to be automated (7% expect a growing proportion to be staffed); 62% expect
a growing proportion of workers to be contract-based (12% expect a growing proportion to be
permanent staff); and 61% expect a growing proportion of functions to be outsourced (13% expect a
growing proportion to be brought in-house). This may allow companies to leverage global resources
more efficiently, but it will also increase the complexity of management’s role.
l More diversity. Workers will come from a greater range of backgrounds; those with local knowledge
of an emerging market, a global outlook and an intuitive sense of the corporate culture will be
particularly valued. Fifty-eight percent of respondents expect workers to have more diverse
backgrounds and experience; 48% believe the workforce will become more international in
composition; and 44% say it will become more ethnically diverse. To build on this, many companies
will send employees overseas more frequently, often for short periods, on project-based assignments
or to take part in training.
Interviewees are more definitive in their belief that overseas assignments are critical for employee
development and to entrench the corporate culture into the global organisation. They believe talented
young people will more frequently choose their employer based, at least in part, on international
opportunities.
l Ascendance of soft skills. Companies will focus on building communication skills, cultural awareness
and corporate values through international assignments and by bringing together groups of workers
from different countries and functions into training sessions. Technical skills, while mandatory,
are seen by interviewees as less defining of the successful manager than the ability to work across
cultures and build relationships with many different constituents. People who have local knowledge, a
© Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 5Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
global outlook and an intuitive sense of the corporate culture will have the best leadership potential.
Survey takers rate problem-solving, project-management and interpersonal skills ahead of technical
competence as the most important skills for their organisation’s success over the next decade, ahead
of technical and function-specific skills.
Changes to the organisational structure and workforce will spell new challenges for managers. Among
them are:
l Understanding the worker. While a majority of respondents expect job satisfaction to improve
(39%) or remain the same (17%) over the next decade, the survey reveals a disconnect between
what companies offer to employees and what respondents say their direct reports actually value. For
example, 78% of respondents say decision-making responsibility would be a key factor in deciding to
join a company, yet only 40% believe their own company encourages employees to make decisions.
Respondents say that workers want opportunities for continued learning; performance-related
bonuses; opportunities to work internationally; flexibility to work on different teams; and career
planning. Yet these are all benefits that most feel their own company is negligent in providing. The
benefits that companies are most likely to provide, such as home-working privileges and a casual dress
code, are the benefits that survey respondents value least.
l Tapping into the multi-cultural workforce. Twenty-eight percent of survey respondents say
their company will use IT and social networking tools to tap into the global talent pool over the
coming decade, but it is likely they are underestimating how quickly HR will recognise collaborative
technology as a key component of a global hiring strategy. Interviewee companies are already
leveraging social networking sites, researching which sites are most effective in each market.
Meanwhile, to broaden the talent pipeline and develop new skill sets, some companies are partnering
with schools to develop curricula—both technical and managerial—that prepare students for work in a
multinational, multicultural company.
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Introduction
T he pace of business change over the past decade has been breathtaking. The so-called BRIC countries
(Brazil, Russia, India and China), indeed, a wide range of emerging markets, are seeing rising middle
classes that are eager for new products and services. The Internet has upended traditional industry
models and fuelled the ever-quickening pace of business. Third-generation (3G) and wireless technology
have brought office work everywhere: the cafe, the commute, the dinner table. The phrase “work-life
balance” has become, for its constant disequilibrium, commonplace.
What will the organisation look like in another ten years? The Economist Intelligence Unit surveyed 479
businesspeople around the world and interviewed 15 executives at successful global companies to find out
what they expect.
The challenges they believe companies will face are perhaps paradoxical: workforces will be larger
and more spread out, but they will also have to be more globally integrated; companies will localise
management of operations, but will also need a consistent global brand to attract customers and talent;
companies will try to move quickly on new opportunities around the world, but will also need to act
carefully and mitigate risk; they will depend on worker loyalty and motivation, but will also try to have
a more provisional and contingent workforce; there will be greater diversity in the workforce, but also a
more uniform corporate culture.
It will be a difficult balancing act. Companies that are able to pull it off will be at a distinct advantage.
Who took the survey? heads of business units and other senior managers.
Eighty-nine respondents have human resources
(HR) responsibilities at their organisation. Many of
A total of 479 senior executives participated in the the firms for which they work are mid-sized to large:
“Global firms in 2020” survey, which was conducted by 265 respondents hailed from companies with annual
the Economist Intelligence Unit in June and July 2010. revenue of at least US$500m. For more details on the
Of those who responded, 210 were C-level executives survey sample and results, see the appendix of this
and the remainder were senior vice-presidents, study.
© Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 7Global firms in 2020
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Key points
l Seventy-one percent of survey respondents with less than US$1bn in annual revenue say they will enter and
compete in more foreign markets over the coming decade
l Expat managers have proven to be too expensive and often fail to absorb sufficiently the local culture
l Companies should consider adopting an approach that balances local and central control
The global organisation
A s companies—both large and small—expand into new markets over the next decade, their
organisational structures will evolve in kind. Managers will increasingly be hired locally, as qualified
management talent in emerging markets is more plentiful now than when multinationals first set up shop
there. In addition, expatriate managers have become too costly and have an insufficient grasp of the
local culture. Decision-making, however, will be both localised and globalised. As Michael Beer, Professor
Emeritus at Harvard Business School and chairman of TruePoint, a consulting firm, notes, “Companies
will try to push as much decision-making to local units at the same time that they create global standards,
global processes, global teams.”
Expanding into emerging markets
Companies cannot help but feel the impact of a globalised economy. Previously inaccessible markets are
opening up for companies to tap new customers as well as new talent. New competitors are emerging
from unexpected places. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s survey respondents, the
Over the next ten years, my organisation will…
Agree (companies Agree (companies Agree (all
over US$1bn under US$1bn companies, %)
revenue, %) revenue, %)
…enter/compete in more foreign markets 80 71 75
…source more goods and services from foreign markets than our home market 61 48 54
…encounter our strongest competitors in foreign markets 57 50 53
…receive more revenue from foreign markets than our home market 55 46 50
…hire more people in foreign markets than in our home market 67 35 49
…invest more in foreign markets than in our home market 59 40 48
…produce more goods and services in foreign markets than in our home market 59 38 47
…receive more financing from foreign investors than our home investors 38 37 38
…conduct more R&D in foreign markets than in our home market 35 28 31
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit survey, July 2010.
8 © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010Global firms in 2020
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domestic market is shrinking in significance relative to foreign markets, as sources of revenue, talent and
competition.
It’s no surprise that the trend is especially strong among large organisations that have the resources
to expand. What is striking is that small and medium-sized companies will find more growth opportunities
abroad: 71% of respondents with less than US$1bn in annual revenue say they will enter and compete
in more foreign markets over the coming decade, and 50% believe their strongest competitors will be
overseas.
The big emerging markets have long been targets for foreign direct investment (FDI). They were places
to manufacture for export or to build a “presence”. Those investments are now paying off: China, India
and others are evolving into fully functioning, complex economies with large middle-classes, talented
workforces and sources of finance.
Companies are spreading investment over more emerging markets, instead of concentrating on one
(traditionally China). This is to mitigate risk, but also because many emerging markets are seen as strong
bets: 68% of respondents agree with the statement, “We must spread our portfolio of operations over more
countries.”
The benefits and pitfalls of size
There will be benefits to having a larger, more global organisation, such as the ability to trial new products
and services in one market before rolling them out globally. The same applies to internal human resources
(HR) processes. “We have all these little Petri dishes in which you can try new things,” says Laszlo Bock,
vice-president of people operations at Google, the California-based Internet search and advertising
technologies corporation. “We can try managing the Paris office differently from the New York office. We
Forced conversation at Google “owners”, participants are expected to bring their own leadership
challenges to the training. “By actually reinventing the course
content, they have an immediate practical application of it,” he says.
People tend to fall back on hierarchical modes of working, notes The programme assembles people across functions and
Laszlo Bock, vice-president of people operations at Google, the geographies, each cohort a microcosm of the larger company. For
California-based Internet search and advertising technologies many, this is their only experience working with people outside their
corporation. “As you get bigger as an organisation, you have to work function. The close relationships that result tend to last, even when
harder and harder, and more deliberately, to unpack the biological participants return to their home offices.
and cultural trappings that people normally bring with them,” Formal mentoring can feel contrived. “We find it’s more helpful
he says. The company has a leadership training programme—the to create an environment where you allow people to discover that
Advanced Leadership Lab—designed to create meaningful personal even though they do completely different jobs (one’s in engineering,
connections across its global operations. one’s in sales and one’s in finance), there is actually a lot they’re
The programme aims to have people “think like owners” rather experiencing in common and they form their own networks,” says Mr
than employees. Employees, Mr Bock explains, “assume other people Bock. “That also runs more efficiently from a company perspective
will take care of things. They assume there’s some infrastructure because you don’t need hundreds of coaches. You have your leaders
for them. They don’t look at every activity in the company and think becoming coaches for one another, which also has the virtue of
first, ‘I’m responsible for everything, whether it’s my job or not.’” As letting them develop a new skill for themselves.”
© Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 9Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
can roll out a new benefit in Europe and see how people react and if it’s valued. If it works, great. You roll
it out globally. If it doesn’t, then it stays local or you stop doing it.”
However, there are downsides. More people will work odd hours in order to connect with colleagues
and clients worldwide. Companies will struggle to create and maintain a single brand experience—for
customers and workers—over far-flung operations. They will need to integrate new people quickly while
keeping a sense of community within a dispersed workforce.
“As you get bigger, you feel more removed from other people. You find that people are a little more
anonymous, a little less likely to lend a helping hand, and innovation comes a little less naturally,” says
Mr Bock. “It becomes easier for people to join and say, ‘I’m just going to worry about what’s going on in the
Hamburg office. I’m not going to worry about what’s going on in Paris, let alone Hyderabad.’” To counteract
this, the company advocates communication and transparency.
Localising management
Over the next decade, companies will continue to localise the management of overseas operations.
Expat managers, traditionally sent to instil local operations with practices from the home market, have
proven to be too expensive, and often fail to absorb sufficiently the local culture. Their presence can be
“I believe that demoralising for local talent, suggesting the lack of career path for those outside the home market.
you can’t achieve For Manpower, a US-based employment agency that operates in 82 countries, speed is the issue. Expat
a breakthrough management “ends up being more tacit knowledge transfer and that’s not fast enough”, says Jeff Joerres,
without harnessing Manpower’s CEO and chairman. He finds it more efficient to train a local manager in corporate culture than
the powers of an expat manager in local culture.
localness.” This is not to say that the expat manager will become extinct. But the reasoning behind international
Jeff Joerres, CEO and transfers will be different, as will be those chosen for such moves. There will be more short-term
chairman, Manpower
assignments, with reins handed over to local managers within a year. There will be movement of managers
not only from headquarters to local markets, but the other way around, and between different local markets
as well. “I think you’re seeing a lot more people transferred from the developed world to the developing
world, and vice versa,” says Stephen Burnett, associate dean of executive education at Northwestern
University. “It’s the vice versa that has really changed.”
Managers will be chosen for foreign assignments based on their ability to work across cultures and
learn best practices that can be transferred to other markets. It will be a means of turning a high-potential
manager into a global leader. At Manpower, the Vietnam country manager is spending one month at the
office in Sweden; she previously toured operations in France and Japan. She will be bringing back best
practices to Hanoi, which she will adapt to her market. Mr Joerres believes this method of “dipping”
managers into different settings is the most efficient way to transfer corporate culture. It addresses what
he sees as the company’s primary HR challenge: training leaders fast enough to keep up with the growing
sophistication of the markets where Manpower operates.
Because of their cultural connection, local managers are better able to assess competitors, recognise
and recruit local talent, and identify potential partners, to interact with and appeal to local customers. Mr
Joerres says that when a local manager talks with the government about changes in labour legislation or to
10 © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
a client about productivity, “these are not off-the-shelf, pre-packaged and sterile recommendations. These
are heartfelt, well-thought-out, insightful recommendations based on a true understanding of that market.
I believe that you can’t achieve a breakthrough without harnessing the powers of localness.”
Local authority, central oversight
If managers will be hired locally, will more decision-making be localised as well? About one-half of
respondents (47%) report there will be greater autonomy for local offices, while 31% expect greater
centralisation around headquarters.
Some external factors support a shift towards local authority. If protectionist barriers rise and
government regulation increases, as 66% of respondents expect, companies will have to work more closely
with government agencies. In this scenario, a strong country manager is critical. Furthermore, since most
cross-border trade is intra-company, an increase in trade barriers would hamper a globally integrated
strategy; companies would be inclined to place more stock in individual geographic markets. This would
also raise the profile of the local manager.
But other factors point to a need for greater central control. Rapid growth is fraught with risk. As
companies expand, they must protect the global brand and present a clear image that appeals to customers “In the world
and job seekers. Tony Voller, senior vice-president, EMEA HR and global talent, at Intercontinental Hotel we’re living in
Group, a UK-based global hotel company, says that ten years ago, IHG hotels were largely local units today the words
operating autonomously. “I would say that in some ways we’re becoming a more centralised organisation,” ‘decentralisation’
he explains. This is because customers—particularly in the travel and retail industries—increasingly and ‘centralisation’
expect consistent service globally. “Customers are becoming much more savvy and demanding about need to be thrown
what they require. The challenge for every business is to make sure there is a high degree of consistency.” out completely.”
Mr Voller says that at IHG, “The autonomy that local managers can exercise has to be tailored to specific Michael Beer, Professor
Emeritus, Harvard Business
requirements in that community.” School
Furthermore, many costs are duplicated in a country-based strategy. Most survey respondents see
more frugal customers and leaner budgets as the most lasting legacies of the global financial crisis. Sixty-
seven percent of respondents agree with the statement, “We will have to cut costs significantly to remain
competitive” (26% disagree). Heightened competition also requires companies to hasten innovation,
which entails cross-border collaboration; a strong centre is needed to mandate and facilitate such
connections. Furthermore, stricter regulation in some industries demands more uniform processes and
tighter oversight.
This tension is captured in the survey data. A majority of respondents agree with both of these
contradictory statements:
l We must respond more rapidly to new opportunities, even at the risk of making the wrong decisions
(68%; 26% disagree).
l We must strengthen our decision-making processes, even at the risk of slowing our reaction to new
opportunities (61%; 34% disagree).
© Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 11Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
Engineers unite at GM up front, making sure you’ve got the team that is working together
and has the right common goals, then you leverage the different
collaboration technologies effectively,” she says. Using a global
engineering platform, as well as common communication tools, the
“Ten years ago, we were much more regionally based,” says Mary team collaborates remotely throughout the project. Meeting again at
Barra, vice-president of global HR at GM, a US-based automaker. project milestones allows the team to see prototypes at work in the
Now the company is benefiting from a strong push towards global target environment.
integration. The objectives are saving money, responding faster to By meeting initially in the country of rollout, the team can learn
the market, speeding up the innovation process and producing better from local GM engineers the market’s particular challenges, such as
cars. How does the company operate globally? road quality. When complete, the newly engineered component or
GM maintains six “engineering centres”, in South Korea, China, vehicle is tested in that market. “We can then reuse that engineering
India, Brazil, Germany and the US. These act as magnets for talent solution on other vehicles around the world,” says Ms Barra. “It
in their regions, cultivating relationships with top schools. But not only lowers our cost, but also gives us higher confidence. We’ve
engineers are not restricted to regionally based projects. Teams validated and tested, so we’re going to have higher quality.”
are assembled from across the engineering centres to share in the Cars are becoming more technically complex. There are constant
development and design of new vehicles and sub-systems. advancements in electronics and alternative propulsion, and high
The global team meets face-to-face at the start of each project— demand for engineers who are expert in the field. Ms Barra believes
usually in the country where the innovation or new car will be rolled global collaboration lets GM leverage scarce human resources and
out—and again at key milestones. Ms Barra believes that this initial innovate more quickly, while its regional engineering centres allow it
meeting is critical. “It’s building and establishing those relationships to leverage knowledge of markets.
The answer may be a new approach entirely. “In the world we’re living in today, the words
‘decentralisation’ and ‘centralisation’ need to be thrown out completely,” says Professor Beer of Harvard
Business School. “These are opposites that can no longer exist as opposites. Companies will try to push as
much decision-making to local units at the same time that they create global standards, global processes,
global teams.”
Companies should consider adopting an approach that allows for a balance between local and central
control. This will vary by function and country, and will shift as opportunities—or crises—arise anywhere
in the organisation. Direct collaboration and communication between local offices will become more
natural, and the home office will be less of a bottleneck. Indeed, the home office may be transformed: some
respondents expect their company to move headquarters from a slow-growing mature market to a fast-
growing emerging market within the decade. It is more likely, however, that companies will evolve to have
multiple regional headquarters.
In recent years, GM, a US-based automaker, has transformed itself from a regionally based company
to a globally integrated organisation, where regional engineering centres co-ordinate with each other to
design new cars and components. “If you go too far and everything is centralised, it’s impossible for any
group of people in one location to understand and know best how to meet the needs for the diverse markets
around the world,” says Mary Barra, vice-president of global HR at GM. “Yet if you have complete autonomy
at every unit, you’re not going to be as efficient, you’re not going to share best practices.”
12 © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010Global firms in 2020
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Key points
l There will be greater leeway to work from home, make lateral moves and work modified schedules within the
next ten years
l Organisations will seek employees that have a global mindset, people that are able to work across cultures and
are motivated to bring the business to new markets
l Workers will do more project-based work, forming and re-forming into teams rather than having a static role
Effects of change on workers
O ver the coming decade, survey respondents expect employees to work longer hours, retire at an
older age, and experience greater personal and family stress due to work. Given that outlook, it is
unsurprising that 57% of respondents expect there to be less loyalty to the organisation, while only 20%
anticipate greater loyalty.
What other changes are in store in the next decade? There is likely to be greater workforce fluctuation
and a cultural divide between core and contingent workers; more diversity in the workforce, especially
geographic; increased attention paid to soft skills, personal attributes and experience; and people
taking on more responsibility at an earlier stage in their careers.
Shifting demographics
In most developed countries, population growth has slowed or even reversed. The proportion of working-
age people to the general population is shrinking even faster: Japan’s population will contract by 4%
between 2000 and 2020, while its labour force is forecast to shrink three times faster (12%), according
Demographic forecasts for select countries, 2000-20
Total Population Total Change in Private Change Real GDP per Change in real
population, change, labour force, labour force, consumption in private capita, 2020 GDP per capita,
2020 2000-20 2020 2000-20 per capita, 2020 consumption (US$) 2000-20
(m) (%) (m) (%) (US$) per capita, (%)
2000-20 (%)
Brazil 219 27.9 119 46.1 10,250 323 16,350 335
China 1,407 11.0 847 14.0 8,170 1,770 15,770 1,576
Germany 83 0.5 43 0.9 32,740 140 55,310 139
India 1,362 35.6 602 53.8 2,480 711 4,300 812
Indonesia 268 25.1 139 45.6 4,360 816 7,350 852
Japan 122 -4.0 60 -11.5 31,060 50 57,500 56
US 337 19.3 165 15.5 47,440 96 74,750 112
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.
© Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 13Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
to Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts (see table). The US population will grow by 19% over the same
period, thanks largely to immigration, but its labour force will increase by only 16%. These pressures are
forcing companies to seek new labour sources in emerging markets: India’s population will grow by 36%
between 2000 and 2020, and its labour force will be up by 54%.
Multinational companies will have to tread carefully. They will need to integrate new workers into
fast-growth markets and keep workers in slow-growth markets motivated despite the shift away from
their turf. Bias towards either side will be keenly felt.
Age among workers is another factor executives must consider. Baby-boomers in developed countries
are retiring at an older age than previous generations. Says Stephen Burnett, associate dean of
executive education at Kellogg School of Management: “I’ve got all these people that I thought were
going to retire; they’re not. They’re looking at another 10 or 15 years of work—and they’re sitting on
MBAs from 1975. [Companies] have to start paying attention to those people’s development.”
“I’ve got all these Meanwhile, the younger generation, because of its smaller ranks, is filling strategic roles at an earlier
people that I age, with less experience than the previous generation of managers. They must be given accelerated
thought were leadership training. In the last 20 years, the number of workers aged 55 or older in the US has doubled,
going to retire; while that of workers aged 35-39 has dropped slightly.
they’re not.
They’re looking The fluctuating workforce
at another 10 or Intensified competition in low-cost markets and the financial crisis have encouraged a trend towards a
15 years of work leaner, more fluctuating workforce. Sixty-two percent of survey respondents expect a growing proportion
... [Companies] of workers to be “contingent” (ie, contract-based rather than permanently employed). Employees will be
have to start more physically mobile, and better equipped to collaborate virtually over the next decade.
paying attention A flexible workforce will make it easier to scale up or down as business needs dictate—“just in time”
to those people’s resourcing. As Robert Orth, HR director for IBM in Australia and New Zealand, explains, it is not easy to
development.” forecast HR needs, especially in high-tech fields where skills have a short lifespan. The goal is to build a
Stephen Burnett, Associate business model “that is flexible enough that even if you don’t get the forecasting exact, you can find and
Dean of Executive
Education, Kellogg School of move skills and capability at shorter notice.” IBM has designed a system to help manage its increasingly
Management
mobile and flexible workforce (see sidebar).
There will be greater leeway to work from home, make lateral moves and work modified schedules
within the next ten years. Some will choose to become free agents, working where and when they want.
Nandita Gurjar, senior vice-president and group head of HR at Infosys, an Indian-based technology and
consulting firm whose business is largely in the US, says that time-zone differences can take a toll on
employees. Work-life balance is especially important to younger workers. She believes an increasing
number will choose contract-based work that can be performed remotely. “Organisations will need to
understand how to deal with this group of people whom they have probably never seen.” But she warns:
“If they don’t, they’ll miss out on a very large workforce. Organisations that adapt and are more flexible
will have access to a very intelligent and growing workforce.”
Ms Gurjar acknowledges that most workers will prefer to remain part of the organisation, opting for
more human interaction. “Although there is a lot of social media, it really has not substituted for the
14 © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
IBM: Watching workers potential”, additional leadership-readiness data are incorporated.
The tool can be used by employees to identify and apply for job
openings worldwide, compare their skills against those needed in
other roles and determine what skills they need to develop to move up
In 2004 IBM, a global technology and consulting organisation, the ranks. The tool is used by managers to assemble optimal project
introduced a workforce management system that allows the company teams. And the company uses the tool strategically, for predicting
to oversee its global resources while employees manage their own workforce needs. Each business unit provides a quarterly trend
careers. analysis: which skills are hot, which are on the wane. By comparing
Two-hundred fifty distinct roles (eg, project manager, IT architect) the existing supply of skills and leadership against current demand
were identified across the global organisation and given descriptions. and future trends, IBM can plan its hiring and training needs.
The descriptions comprise skills, which are also defined uniformly “The whole concept was to translate supply chain management
across the organisation. Each role description is “owned” by a thinking into the HR space,” says Frank Persico, vice-president of
practitioner of that job, who updates it as necessary. workforce learning and development at IBM. “It was a two-pronged
The company’s 400,000 employees regularly assess their own impetus, both to better enable supply-demand matching, because
skills, rating each on a scale of 1 to 5. Once approved by their you don’t want people underutilised or worse, a situation where we do
manager, the ratings are integrated into an online tool. The tool not have enough of them. But at the same time, from the employee-
collects other data, such as contact details, billing rates, home office centric view, we wanted employees to understand what they needed
and current project. For the 60,000 employees identified as “high to do to be successful in the roles that they were interested in.”
face-to-face, the teamwork, which comes out of working in an organisation,” she says. “So while there
could be more money and more flexibility in working as a contractor, the fact is that we, as human
beings, like interaction. So even if it moves to a 70:30 [split], you will still have a larger workforce which
will be employee-based.”
Whether workers choose a more flexible arrangement for their own personal reasons or companies
hire more contingent workers for business reasons, there will be a cultural divide between those workers
and core staff. Core talent will derive a disproportionate level of resources and opportunity as companies
strive to earn their loyalty. They will undergo a more rigorous hiring process than previously, but be
rewarded with interesting projects, accelerated leadership development, international assignments and
regular promotions. Companies will be challenged to maintain morale and boost collaboration while
they shift to a more contingent workforce.
Diversity becomes more diverse
Traditionally, a diverse workforce was one that included multiple races and ethnicities. But as companies
expand in a tighter job market, the definition has expanded. “We’ve got to diversify our sources of
talent from almost every measure, whether that’s gender, academic background, socioeconomic status
or immigration status,” says Jim Wall, global managing director of talent and chief diversity officer at
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a professional services firm. ”Our member firms will compete against
other industries for talent and must stand out as employers of choice.” He adds, “Increasingly, we’re
drawing people from the far reaches of the talent pool, places where we would not have traditionally
considered people coming from: engineers, physicians, physicists, and not bean counters, not only
© Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 15Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
accountants.”
A background in another industry, job function or country is valued. “When I say ‘diversity and
inclusiveness’, I’m not talking about political correctness,” says Mr Burnett of Northwestern University.
“Say your client is Coca-Cola, and Coca-Cola operates all over the world. The team that you have to put
together to serve Coca-Cola cannot be a bunch of Americans from Atlanta, Georgia. You have to have
people from absolutely all over the world, and you’re probably going to have to come from a lot of
different practices.” Survey-takers agree (see chart).
International experience (whether through work or school) will be highly regarded. Workers with a
tacit understanding of local cultures will be integral to emerging-market operations. Employees at all
levels of the organisation and in all regions will
How will your organisation’s workers change over the coming ten years?
Select all that apply. Our workers will… be given more opportunities to travel, often on a
(% respondents)
short-term or project basis, or for training.
…become more international in composition More than international experience or
48
…better represent the countries where we do business knowledge, organisations will seek employees
36
with a global mindset, people who are able to
…become more ethnically diverse
44 work across cultures and are motivated to bring
…relocate more frequently among our overseas offices
20 the business to new markets. And even as local
…travel more frequently to our overseas offices
21
expertise is prized, a uniform corporate culture
… have to speak an Asian language will prevail. Employees—wherever they are in the
18
…have more diverse backgrounds and experience world—will be expected to conform to a common
58
set of values and communicate in a common
Don’t know/Not applicable
9 “language of business” (usually English). The
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit survey, July 2010.
most successful employees will be those who
embody their local culture and the values of the global corporation.
“What you’re looking for is somebody who is of the culture,” says Mr Burnett. “I want somebody
sitting in the Middle East who really understands that market,” he says. “Yet, when I talk to them about
our ethical standards or financial controls or the way we do things in this company, they don’t look at me
like I’m just insane. I can be confident that there might be all kinds of temptations to do things [in the
Middle East] that this company wouldn’t do, and that they’re not going to do them.”
Diversity will not be easy to manage. Asked about the greatest obstacles to hiring globally, survey
respondents pointed primarily to cultural differences (44%), along with differing standards of quality
and language barriers.
Training in soft skills
Corporate culture and soft skills will become a focus of training within the next decade. All engineers
that join Infosys, whether from India, China or elsewhere, undergo a six-month residential training
programme at the corporate university in Mysore. Ms Gurjar says this is “so that they are ready to handle
our global plans”. The original aim of the corporate university was to ensure a standardised level of
technical proficiency. But the firm soon recognised that there was an opportunity to impart more. “We
16 © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
could put in our value workshops,” she says. “We could put in the soft skills. We could put in the cultural
pieces, saying, ‘Most of your clients will be in the US and these are the cultural differences’, or ‘If you’re
working with a European client, these are the cultural differences’. So it allowed us a very good window
into getting them ready for business, not just in technology.”
Workers will do more project-based work, forming and re-forming into teams rather than having
a static role. Problem-solving and project-management skills will be critical, according to survey
respondents. Successful managers will assemble and oversee cross-functional teams rather than an
unchanging set of direct reports. Mr Orth of IBM believes that workers will be defined by their skills and
experience rather than their job titles. “Everybody is looking at résumés to understand that you can work
cross-culturally, that you can work in extended teams, and that you can work in a matrix,” says Mr Orth.
“I think the business world is going like that, and you call it a skill set or a capability that you really need
because that’s how these projects are going to work.”
Bin Wolfe, Asia-Pacific people leader for Ernst & Young, a professional services firm, believes
that China’s economy is changing faster than its culture. A challenge for the country’s relatively
homogeneous workforce is to open up to other cultures. Future managers and leaders in her firm will “Everybody is
need “the ability to work across borders, work multi-culturally, work with different clients, different looking at résumés
people across the firm. I think that’s going to be such an important skill set, whereas it was a lot less to understand
important probably ten years ago.” that you can work
Ajay Dhir, group CIO at Jindal Steel, believes managers in India’s manufacturing industry—which cross-culturally,
lags the IT industry in its level of globalisation—must learn to be more open-minded: “The world is one that you can work
big community now. Indians will invest abroad. People from overseas will invest in India,” he says. in extended teams,
Managers must be ready to work with people from different communities, countries and religions. “In and that you can
India, thinking like an Indian, speaking like an Indian is good,” he says. “But it is not what is required. work in a matrix.”
Robert Orth, Director HR,
You can be an Indian, but think global and speak global.” Mr Dhir says Indian managers, whether at Australia, New Zealand, IBM
home or abroad, must “be more flexible, adopt the local culture, the local way of working, the local way
of thinking and speaking, and not be isolated in groups which are small, isolated communities.” He
believes this is the management training challenge for his company. “You have to be more participative
and inclusive,” he adds.
© Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 17Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
Key points
l To strengthen the global culture, companies will avoid biases that favour the home market in hiring,
promotions and compensation decisions.
l Companies will use technology to interconnect large workforces, but will rely on face-to-face encounters to
foster lasting relationships.
l There is a significant gap between what survey respondents value in a job and what they believe their company
provides.
Implications for executives
R etaining and rewarding the best people has always been one of HR’s main challenges; it will
increase exponentially as the competition for top talent goes global. Yet as the survey reveals, most
companies are ineffective in motivating workers and instilling loyalty:
l 45% of all respondents (and 58% of respondents at large companies) say their company does not
understand what motivates employees.
l 41% of all respondents (and 47% of respondents at large companies) do not believe their company is a
meritocracy.
Understanding the worker
There is a significant gap between what survey respondents value in a job and what they believe their
company provides. Companies are more likely to offer perks that workers value only slightly (such as a
casual dress code and home-working privileges) than those they regard highly (such as decision-making
responsibility, opportunities to work internationally and career planning).
Respondents who say this benefit would have Respondents who say their
a “strong” or “very strong” influence on their current company offers this
decision to join another company benefit
Competitive compensation packages 84 % 51 %
Encouragement of employees to make decisions and take risks 78 % 40 %
Opportunities for continued learning 77 % 57 %
Performance-related bonuses 74 % 49 %
Opportunities to work internationally 69 % 37 %
Flexibility to work with different teams on a per-project basis 56 % 35 %
Career planning 53 % 17 %
360-degree feedback 45 % 25 %
Generous holiday allotment 44 % 38 %
Mentoring 42 % 27 %
Home working arrangements 41 % 41 %
Casual dress code 14 % 51 %
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit survey, July 2010.
18 © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
Thierry Baril, executive vice-president of HR at Airbus, a leading aircraft manufacturer based in France,
notes that the younger generation of workers is more impatient for exciting work and new opportunities,
but also cares about work-life balance. “They are expecting a lot from the company, but I think it’s fair. We
must know it and we must answer to that,” he says. “They want to be developed and they want to receive clear
feedback about their performance and about their potential. They expect someone to really care about them.”
Successful companies will track employee aspirations and morale through satisfaction surveys, public
forums, regular meetings between employees and their managers, career planning sessions and 360-
degree feedback. In matrix organisations, where people often have two bosses, managers will meet
together frequently to discuss work priorities and development goals for their shared resources.
“The way the workforce has changed, people aren’t necessarily looking for lifetime employment.
They’re looking for opportunities to grow, develop and be challenged,” says Ms Barra of GM. “I think if you
provide that as a company, you’ll retain your talent. If not, I think that more than in the past you’re likely
to risk losing them if other companies can do it better.” She believes that HR will have to partner more “The way the
with functional heads, business line leaders and local managers to ensure that they are “providing good workforce has
developmental assignments, challenging opportunities and an environment where people feel that they changed, people
are empowered and can be held accountable.” aren’t necessarily
Mr Dhir notes that as more companies—particularly IT firms—enter India over the coming decade, they looking for lifetime
will be looking for people with both technical and soft skills. His employees will be attractive targets. employment.
“How do we persuade a person in my IT department not to join an IT company but to remain with me?” he They’re looking for
asks. “It can’t be just because of compensation because the IT company can and will pay more.” He says opportunities to
Jindal Steel must compete by offering a better employee experience. His recipe: understand employees’ grow, develop and
aspirations, create a roadmap for their growth, respect their work-life balance, and provide opportunities be challenged. I
to learn and have new experiences at home and abroad. He says while younger workers may seek higher think if you provide
pay, mid-level managers are apt to consider the total package, including the relative security of working that as a company,
for an Indian firm. you’ll retain your
talent.”
Building a collaborative corporate culture Mary Barra, Vice-president,
HR, GM
According to Robin Dunbar, a British anthropologist, the size of the human neocortex places a limit on
the number of individuals with which interpersonal relationships can be maintained. “Dunbar’s number”
is approximately 150—and that is assuming the group is physically close. How can a global company
of thousands, or tens of thousands, of employees spread over dozens of countries create meaningful
connections?
Successful global companies will use technology to interconnect large workforces smartly. Sixty-two
percent of respondents expect virtual meetings to replace most face-to-face discussions. But in-person
encounters will remain key to foster lasting relationships, say interviewees.
Defining the company’s culture and promoting it globally is another way companies will create a
sense of community. Culture is usually described by a few core principles—excellent service to the client,
support of colleagues, personal integrity and so on. When these are spelt out clearly by top management,
workers worldwide develop a common sense of purpose and belonging. Behaving in accordance with
© Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 19Global firms in 2020
The next decade of change for organisations and workers
these principles will become intuitive, even for those in far-flung locations.
Employees should be brought into the process of defining the culture. At IHG, the CEO and global head
of HR agreed that for the company to become a global leader, “We needed to be clear about what made
us stand out from our competitors for our customers and employees,” says Mr Voller. Managers organised
workshops and spoke with employees to learn from them what it would take for the company to become
great. “We used their input to drive the discussion about what our culture was, what our values are and
what our employee offer is,” including benefits, the recruitment process, the induction and training
process. “We really shaped our culture and processes from that input and it’s served us very well,” he says.
Corporate culture will be used to counteract hindrances in local cultures. “Every national culture
embodies norms that are consistent with effective as well as ineffective managerial behaviour,” says
Professor Beer of Harvard Business School. For example, managers in one country may value rewarding
individual performance and downplay the value of teamwork. In another country, managers may value
teamwork, but be less demanding and tough on individuals to perform. A company with a strong global
culture will mitigate these differences by creating expectations for people to perform both independently
and collaboratively. These principles will be backed by corporate leaders and—just as importantly—be
“You have to find incorporated into compensation and promotion decisions.
a way of thinking To strengthen the global culture, companies will need to avoid biases that favour the home market in
about them [local hiring, promotions and compensation decisions, and in business resourcing and investment. Sir Martin
managers] that Sorrell, CEO of WPP, the world’s largest communications services group, says, “The distribution of resources
takes out of the is still far too oriented to those traditional countries. So you see a greater proportion of salary and bonus
mix any biases you accruals or allocations, positions still oriented towards the mature markets.”
have from your Sir Martin believes part of the problem is that the HR function is typically centralised in the home
national origin.” market. WPP is experimenting with a decentralised HR, moving senior HR executives outside the home
Michael Beer, Professor
Emeritus, Harvard Business
market to high-growth regions. More importantly, local managers are taking on a larger role in identifying
School. and recruiting talent. “It is hopeless to believe that centralised human resources departments can know
what’s going on in every market of the world,” he says. “If we lose a creative person in Barcelona, it’s
difficult to know who would be the best person to replace that person either internally or externally. We
will have to rely increasingly on people in local markets, and it’s a core part of everybody’s job to think
about talent. The human resources people cannot be a crutch.”
Professor Beer says companies should develop global standards by which to assess local managers.
“You have to find a way of thinking about them that takes out of the mix any biases you have from your
own national origin.” Local managers may express themselves differently because of language or cultural
differences. “The challenge is to dig deep and identify the core elements of how you think about success
and make sure those biases don’t come into the selection process,” he concludes.
Tapping into the global talent pool
The effective and efficient use of the global talent pool will be a hallmark of good HR practice in 2020. For
a start, corporate leadership—the CEO and board of directors—must be globally minded themselves. “I
think the days of a purely domestic leader are quickly coming to a close for us,” says Mr Wall of Deloitte. “A
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