FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the e-commerce boom - PRICE AND PREJUDICE - HubSpot
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Issue 37 / February 2018 FOLLOWING PRICE AND KEEP IT AMAZON PREJUDICE GROWING Tapping the Is value making a The case for taking e-commerce boom comeback? risk in retirement
EDITOR’S LETTER Issue 37 / February 2018 T HE BEST-PERFORMING STOCK ON THE FTSE ALL SHARE LAST YEAR wasn’t the UK’s answer to Facebook or Google, nor was it a miner riding a price rebound in its underlying commodity. Amid all the talk of a sector in long-term decline, the index’s top-performer in 2017 was actually high-street stalwart Games Workshop, with gains FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the PRICE AND PREJUDICE Is value making a KEEP IT GROWING The case for taking of more than 300 per cent. While the manufacturer of fantasy board games is by no means a typical store and it makes approximately 70 per cent of sales e-commerce boom comeback? risk in retirement from overseas, it still demonstrates what investors could be missing out on if ISSUE 37 they tarnish an entire sector with the same brush, as Rebecca Jones finds out in this issue’s cover feature. If you like the idea of finding value in out-of-favour stocks, the good news – according to an article from Cherry Reynard – is that the conditions look extremely favourable for this type of investing. CREDITS However, Adam Lewis says the bad news is that all the easy gains in UK small caps, which have a higher exposure to the UK consumer, may have already been made. I look at the other side of the coin as I search for TRUSTNET MAGAZINE (FORMERLY the best way to tap into the unstoppable rise of internet shopping. INVESTAZINE) IS PUBLISHED BY In our regular columns, John Blowers floats the idea of maintaining THE TEAM BEHIND FE TRUSTNET IN SOHO, LONDON. the same level of risk throughout your retirement, MitonOptimal’s Paul Warner reveals why he is adding Montanaro UK Income to his SRI WEBSITE: WWW.TRUSTNETDIRECT.COM Balanced Growth portfolio and Gervais Williams names three stocks he EMAIL: EDITORIAL@FINANCIALEXPRESS.NET is backing in another out-of-favour sector – oil. CONTACTS: Enjoy reading, Anthony Luzio Editor T: 0207 534 7652 Art direction & design Javier Otero W: www.feedingcrows.co.uk Editorial Gary Jackson Editor (FE Trustnet) T: 0207 534 7680 Rob Langston News editor T: 0207 534 7696 Lauren Mason Senior reporter T: 0207 534 7625 Jonathan Jones Reporter T: 0207 534 7640 Sales Richard Fletcher Head of publishing sales T: 0207 534 7662 Richard Casemore Account manager T: 0207 534 7669 Photos supplied by Thinkstock In association with: and Photoshot Cover illustration: Javier Otero
IN THIS ISSUE 8 22 28 DEATH OF THE HIGH STREET Rebecca Jones says the long-term decline of traditional retail doesn’t make it a no-go area for investors P. 2-5 / AIM FOR THE STARS James Henderson believes the AIM index contains the next generation of UK companies that could drive the economy for years to come P. 6-7 / PRICE AND PREJUDICE There are signs the out-of-favour value strategy is coming back into fashion, writes Cherry Reynard P. 8-10 / REGARDS FROM SHANGHAI Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust’s James Anderson says Alibaba represents the future of retail P. 12-13 / FOLLOWING AMAZON Anthony Luzio seeks out the best way to tap the e-commerce boom P. 14-16 / FUND, PENSION, TRUST Polar Capital UK Absolute Equity, F&C Responsible Income and Capital Gearing Trust find themselves under the spotlight this month P. 18-20 / MISSED THE BOAT? Anyone who thinks Brexit worries have created a value opportunity in UK small caps may be a year too late, warns Adam Lewis P. 22-26 / KEEP IT GROWING The notion of de-risking your pension pot as you approach retirement may have had its day, writes John Blowers P. 28-31 / WELL-OILED Miton’s Gervais Williams names three oil producers set to benefit from the commodity’s price recovery P. 32 / WHAT I BOUGHT LAST MitonOptimal’s Paul Warner says Montanaro UK Income is suitable for the group’s SRI portfolios even though it isn’t marketed for this purpose P. 33
/ UK RETAIL / The retail sector as we know it is changing beyond all recognition, but this doesn’t make it a no-go area for investors, writes Rebecca Jones U K RETAILERS AREN’T HAVING A GREAT TIME OF IT. Over the past decade, brands once synonymous with everyday British shopping habits – from Marks & Spencer to Tesco to department store goliath Debenhams – have reported sales figures that have become weaker and weaker. Despite a difficult backdrop, however, some unexpected winners are beginning to emerge in this new retail landscape – if you know where to look. ONLINE OR BUST The arch nemesis of the high street is, undoubtedly, the internet. Online retailers have made sourcing and purchasing even the most obscure items effortless, leaving little reason for consumers to tackle high street crowds. Areas that have been hit particularly hard by this trend include books, media and electronics – products that arguably only the most eccentric consumers refuse to source from Amazon or iTunes. The demise of entertainment retailers including Virgin Megastores (later Zavvi) and HMV between 2009 and 2014 is testament to this, while Dixons is clinging on by its fingernails after the collapse of Comet in 2012. Fashion retailing is one of the more recent victims. An area once thought to be safe from the online juggernaut due to the vagaries of size and fit that were most efficiently navigated onsite has been transformed by companies making it easier than ever to find the perfect outfit. Keith Ashworth-Lord, manager of the Sanford DeLand UK Buffettology fund, explains: “In fashion, the trend is absolutely away from bricks and mortar, towards online. I only have to look at my daughter who orders three sizes of something then sends two back the next day to see that. When the market cap of ASOS overtakes Marks & Spencer, that tells you something.” While fending off the internet giants, high street retailers have also had to contend with rising rents. Ashworth-Lord says that property values in many prime central retail locations have rocketed, hurting larger firms with big stores such as M&S, Debenhams and House of Fraser (the latter two recently issued crippling profit warnings). According to Gervais Williams, manager of the Miton UK MicroCap trust, this has compounded other cost concerns: “We’ve trustnet.com 3
been very cautious on this sector for a long time – there are a lot of headwinds. In the UK we’ve got the minimum wage rising quite fast at the moment, which affects a lot of counter staff at retailers, adding more pressure.” POUND SALE In addition to these longer-term challenges, the UK’s vote to leave the EU in June 2016 – and the subsequent sharp devaluation of the pound – has hurt businesses across the board, although once again, it’s retailers that are taking the heat: “I think sterling was overdue a correction, but for businesses that import a lot of what they sell – and that is predominately retailers – that has been a problem, without doubt,” says Ashworth-Lord. Williams concurs, adding the currency hedges that savvy importers may have purchased pre-Brexit will now likely be expiring, adding further cost-woe for some retailers. Perhaps more important, however, is the effect that shrinking sterling has had on the “Games Workshop is totally fan- UK consumer. Inflation has been glued to the floor since the Bank based. The people that buy this of England embarked on its titanic product would find this store if it was 100ft underground” monetary stimulus programme in 2009, however Brexit has pushed it back up to pre-crisis levels of more than 3 per cent. While this in itself is not bad news, wage stagnation back-to-basics German discounters SURVIVORS AND THRIVERS has provided a double whammy: Aldi and Lidl have stolen a march Despite all this doom and gloom, “Simply put, wages are not rising on British stalwarts such as Tesco managers insist there is hope for as fast as prices and that squeeze is and Sainsbury’s. Williams explains: Britain’s high street retailers. Perhaps onerous. Sterling has strengthened “It used to be that people looked for unsurprisingly, one of the most of late, but despite this – and rising the widest range. Now many are important survival factors is an employment – the consumer is happy with smaller local retailers online offering. Ashworth points struggling,” says James Henderson, [where] you don’t need to choose to Next – one of the few fashion manager of the Henderson from 15 types of pepper.” retailers that is holding up in the Opportunities Trust. While this has not yet extended current environment – as a case Even more worrying for far beyond groceries, Williams in point: “The trend is very clearly investors, though, is the most says this could be a trend to watch: towards online and what we have recent trend to emerge among “There’s a pattern where people are to look for as investors are the consumers: that of not – in-fact – getting tired of having too many businesses that are best placed to consuming. This is most evident things. I think they are changing withdraw from the high street. For in the supermarket sector, where their behaviour a bit.” me, Next fits this bill. The average 4 trustnet.com
/ UK RETAIL / there are plenty of bricks and In no company is the specialist mortar retailers that are growing dynamic more evident than fantasy – and playing to the consumer board game manufacturer Games squeeze is key. His holdings in Workshop – the best performing Shoezone, convenience store chain stock on the FTSE All Share last McColl’s and Bargain Booze-owner year – and a standout performer Conviviality have performed well for Ashworth-Lord: “That is really thanks to a combination of renting specialist and totally fanbased. units in cheaper areas, discounting The people that buy this product and an astute awareness of would find this store if it was 100ft customers’ needs. Matt Hudson, underground.” co-manager of the Schroder UK As Games Workshop shows, a Opportunities fund, points to B&M strong brand encouraging a loyal – an everyday essentials retailer customer base still has a role to that is expanding fast: “B&M is play in retailing – despite price putting down more space, but it becoming ever more important. buys in bulk and sources well from For Hudson, urban streetwear Asia. It’s a price-competitive model label Superdry is another good set up to ensure that low price is example. Launched in 2004, the passed on to consumers, and they brand has grown through the seem to like that.” label-love of the mid 2000s to emerge as a staple for mid-level SPECIAL SAUCE consumers, while its expansion Businesses that provide specialist into Asia and the US is providing products and services are also more support. “In the UK, [Superdry] likely to thrive and Henderson and only has 100 stores, but the real Hudson point to Halfords as an strength has been the way it has example: “Halfords is a destination distributed the brand globally. rental lease on its stores is around if you want to motor or bicycle, so It’s on trend with the growth of seven years, so it can get out pretty it has a role as a high street retailer athletic leisurewear and we’ve quickly, while it is growing purely as it is not something that’s easy seen lots of stocks in that area do through online sales.” to do online. Specialists can buck really well,” Hudson says. Shutting up shop isn’t the only trends more easily than generalists,” The future of UK retailers is option. As Henderson observes, Henderson argues. perhaps more uncertain than it has ever been. The pace of growth in online retail has caught many investors by surprise and if Moore’s PERFORMANCE OF STOCKS VS INDEX IN 2017 Law is anything to go by, it’s not going to slow down. The more 350% Games Workshop (311.01%) short-term headwinds buffeting 300% ConvivialityRetail (93.93%) the sector – namely the post-Brexit 250% McolsRetail (48.84%) consumer squeeze – will die down. FTSE All Share (13.10%) However, retailing is going through 200% a fundamental shift and investors 150% must ensure they pick the winners. 100% Hudson summarises: “The most important thing is that retailers 50% acknowledge these changes in 0% consumer behaviour, how they -50% impact their businesses and have the flexibility to take on that 7 b ar r ay n l g p t v c Ju Oc Ap No De n1 Fe Au Se Ju challenge. Those that can embrace M M Ja Source: FE Analytics the change will survive.” trustnet.com 5
For promotional purposes AIM FOR THE STARS James Henderson of the Henderson Opportunities Trust says the AIM index contains the next generation of UK companies that could drive the economy for years to come T HERE ARE ALWAYS strong headwinds, with a companies such a good hunting MONEY-MAKING slowdown in economic activity ground for opportunities, despite INVESTMENT predicted. There is also the the economic backdrop. ASOS had OPPORTUNITIES structural challenge caused by a value of a few million pounds in waiting out in the yesterday’s strong franchises 2005 and it now has a market value market and it is only lack of rapidly being reduced to today’s of £5bn (Source: Bloomberg, February imagination and idleness that stop tired business models. 2018). It is still listed on AIM. us professional investment Think how Ladbrokes Many of the new, young managers from taking them. This is dominated the betting market companies on AIM will fail but a fact I have needed to remind only for its market share to this will primarily not be the myself about in recent months. The be eaten away by the online fault of the economy – rather UK can appear depressing with the platforms or the way internet their inadequacies as a business. Brexit debate ratcheting up to the clothes retail business ASOS went In the same way the winners will point of angry disagreement in from a start-up to having a market succeed because of their own which everyone will be a loser and capitalisation nearly the same as efforts and excellence of product. where real wages are falling. The Marks and Spencer. It is refreshing every time to meet large consumer stocks, property It is the rapid speed of change and talk to a new young company companies and utilities are facing that is making some AIM-listed on AIM. 6 trustnet.com
/ JANUS HENDERSON / For a start, Brexit is unlikely to in the early days with absurd There will be many be mentioned. The successes come valuations that proved to be disappointments, but the next in many different areas of activity. businesses of no value, followed by a generation of dynamic UK Tonic water producer Fevertree mining boom when the hype did not companies that will play their and robotics company Blue Prism match the reality, resulting in heavy part in driving the UK economy were two of the stars last year, while losses for investors. These two events forward, regardless of Brexit and Scapa, an industrial tape company, dragged down the AIM returns. politicians, can be found on the and Johnson Services, a laundry The returns since the 19th year over one thousand companies business, have given very strong anniversary have seen substantial that are on AIM. AIM can returns recently. Success, like failure, growth driven by a diverse range of therefore play an important part comes in many different areas. An stocks (see bottom chart). in a well-balanced portfolio. interesting characteristic of Scapa and Johnson Group is that they were both once quoted on the main market. They had become problem- PERFORMANCE OF INDEX MAY 1997 TO MAY 2016 riddled old companies, but the move to AIM and new management 300% FTSE AIM All Share -TOT Return IND (Rebased 100) teams meant they rediscovered their 250% purpose and drive. This shows it is not only young companies that 200% succeed on AIM, old companies can 150% reinvent themselves. It is the lighter regulations and lower costs that 100% -21.6% mean some companies leave the 50% main market to join AIM and these 0% can be important factors in their recovery plans. M 7 M 8 M 9 M 0 M 1 M 2 M 3 M 4 M 5 M 6 M 7 M 8 M 9 M 0 M 1 M 2 M 3 M 4 M 5 16 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay ay What, therefore, is the process for M finding a successful investment on Source: Datastream, as at 12 May 2016. Rebased to 100, as at 12 May 1997 AIM? Given there is no blueprint for success, there is no process for finding a successful investment other than doing the research. If you PERFORMANCE OF INDEX MAY 2016 TO NOV 2017 stay open to new ideas and then see 160% a lot of companies already quoted FTSE AIM All Share -TOT Return IND (Rebased 100) +44.5% on AIM or coming to AIM every 150% so often, through elements of luck 140% and hard observation, the successful 130% investment will be found. 120% AIM has had a good year but this 110% has not always been the case: in fact 100% the AIM index was down from its 90% launch in 1997 to May 2016 (see 80% chart top-right). 16 6 Au 6 6 6 No 6 De 6 6 Fe 7 M 7 17 M 7 17 7 Au 7 Se 7 7 No 7 7 The reasons for this were that n1 l1 g1 p1 t1 v1 c1 n1 b1 r1 n1 l1 g1 p1 t1 v1 ay ar ay Ju Ju Oc Oc Ap Se Ju Ja Ju M investors had chased fashion. There were too many tech companies Source: Datastream, as at 21 November 2017. Rebased to 100, as at 12 May 2016 Before investing in an investment trust referred to in this document, you should satisfy yourself as to its suitability and the risks involved, you may wish to consult a financial adviser. [Past performance is not a guide to future performance]. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. [Tax assumptions and reliefs depend upon an investor’s particular circumstances and may change if those circumstances or the law change]. Nothing in this document is intended to or should be construed as advice. This document is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment. It does not form part of any contract for the sale or purchase of any investment. [We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.] Issued in the UK by Janus Henderson Investors. Janus Henderson Investors is the name under which Janus Capital International Limited (reg no. 3594615), Henderson Global Investors Limited (reg. no. 906355), Henderson Investment Funds Limited (reg. no. 2678531), AlphaGen Capital Limited (reg. no. 962757), Henderson Equity Partners Limited (reg. no.2606646), (each incorporated and registered in England and Wales with registered office at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE) are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority to provide investment products and services. © 2018, Janus Henderson Investors. The name Janus Henderson Investors includes HGI Group Limited, Henderson Global Investors (Brand Management) Sarl and Janus International Holding LLC. trustnet.com 7
YOUR PORTFOLIO PRICE AND PREJUDICE Cherry Reynard says there are signs the out-of-favour value strategy could be coming back into fashion T t has been an growth when it was hard to come Estimates suggest that the uncomfortable time to by in most other areas of the consumer discretionary sector be a value manager market. At the same time, banks is now trading at a discount and even the most and mining companies have of around 25 per cent relative ardent followers of the appeared too precarious for most to industrials, yet there is no discipline may be wondering investors’ tastes. meaningful difference in earnings whether it has had its day. After The question then, with many growth or future prospects. almost a decade when the value of the factors that have driven the Value has started to fare better style has lagged its peers, is it time outperformance of growth styles since the start of 2018, but Stephen to admit defeat? Or could it be that reversing, is whether this will Peters, portfolio manager at the underperformance is simply change as the environment does? Barclays Wealth and Investment down to monetary policy and the The US 10-year treasury yield, for Management, points out that scales will start to tip back now example, is now edging towards 3 January 2017 saw a similar trend that interest rates are rising? per cent, having been as low as 2 before growth reasserted itself. Over the last 10 years, the MSCI per cent in September 2017. This At the same time, markets have World Value index has delivered means risk-averse investors no shown that they can be insensitive a total return 125.26 per cent, longer have to look to the equity to valuations for extended periods. compared with 183.56 per cent market for income. from the equivalent growth index. TURNING THE CORNER Against an uncertain economic FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS Nevertheless, asset allocators are backdrop, investors have favoured At the same time, economic starting to adjust their portfolios reliable growth with little concern growth is no longer scarce. The and there is a recognition the for how much they paid for it. IMF recently upgraded its global environment may have finally Few were willing to take a risk on growth forecast to 3.9 per cent, turned. James Klempster, head unloved “value” names, such as aided by US tax cuts and a buoyant of portfolio management at banks or mining companies. Chinese economy. Companies are Momentum Global Investment generally operating in a favourable Management, says he normally PROXIES environment, meaning investors maintains a balance between Certainly, the monetary should no longer have to pay equity and growth styles in policy environment has been higher prices for growth stocks his portfolios, but is starting contributory. Falling interest rates when “weaker” companies are also to tilt them towards value: and the resulting low bond yields delivering the goods. “Growth has been at the fore for have made bond proxy sectors This can be seen in the valuation a number of years and has had a attractive. This has driven the differential between sectors phenomenal time, but is now quite performance of companies that such as consumer discretionary concentrated and value has been delivered dependable earnings companies and industrials. left behind – it is bifurcated.” 8 trustnet.com
THE VALUE TRADE trustnet.com 9
/ THE VALUE TRADE / PERFORMANCE OF INDICES OVER 10YRS difficult. Peters says: “It will be 200% interesting to see how some of the MSCI AC World Growth (183.56%) top-performing managers of the 150% last few years and small- and mid- MSCI AC World Value (125.26%) cap focused managers do.” There is a more nuanced point 100% about active versus passive if the environment is moving to 80% favour value, says Peters. Many of the value names are to be found 80% among the largest companies such as those in banking, mining and the oil & gas sectors. Active managers tend to hunt around 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 b0 b0 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 small and mid cap names and Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Source: FE Analytics don’t see as many opportunities to add value among their larger counterparts. Fund managers Fund managers would need to would need to be willing to rotate towards the sectors that have be willing to rotate portfolios struggled since the financial crisis if they start to outperform and may towards the sectors that have end up looking more passive. Value has had “dead cat bounces” struggled since the financial before, but this time feels different. Monetary policy is shifting and crisis if they start to outperform this is finally being felt in bond markets. All this influences and may end up looking more sector preferences among equity passive investors and may tip the balance towards value. He believes the gap is wider in some countries than others, adding: “We need to be careful about regional allocation. Growth in the US has done well and there are more question marks over valuations than in the UK or Europe. That said, we believe there are good opportunities in value- driven strategies everywhere.” Which value managers are likely to benefit most from this environment? Proponents of this style tend to fall into “extreme” and “value-lite” approaches. Peters says managers such as Old Mutual’s Richard Buxton and Jupiter’s Ben Whitmore – who have long term contrarian styles with a value tilt – stand to perform well in this type of value-driven market. However, their approach is not so assiduous as to only function in a “value” environment. At the same time, there are managers who will find it more 10 trustnet.com
REGARDS from SHANGHAI I’ve seen the future and it probably works. I ’M WRITING AN shopping day anywhere in the Alibaba’s rise encapsulates the HOUR AFTER THE world be it online or traditional. ascent and challenges of the power PRIVILEGE OF A Alibaba expects to process 360,000 of technology, its scale signals MEETING WITH transactions a second in the coming the awesome power of a small JACK MA. The 24 hours. No other company in the number of giant corporations and founder of Chinese internet giant world comes close to this scale. its example is a harbinger of an Alibaba was in especially ebullient Singles Day and Alibaba age of Chinese progress and global mood as he was preparing for the symbolise developments that are leadership that is barely grasped in start of Singles Day – a company transforming our economic and even the most ambitious forecasts. invented occasion that now attracts social lives. The forces set in motion Why does Alibaba promote a TV audience twice the size of the are highly likely to dominate Singles Day? It’s great publicity US Super Bowl and dwarfs any other our lives and financial markets. for sure and probably helps boost 12 trustnet.com
/ BAILLIE GIFFORD / the business overall. But that’s not internet technology in the world. the point. As Mr Ma explained it’s JAMES ANDERSON China’s physical infrastructure a stress test for the future. In about Investment Manager is also modern and often superb. eight years’ time Alibaba thinks it James graduated BA in History Education levels are generally high. from Oxford University and after will be dealing with such volumes Social solidarity is strong. postgraduate study in Italy and every normal day – around 10-12 Canada he gained an MA in So why would China stop times current average levels. The International Affairs in 1982. He growing? As I discussed with logistics systems need to learn is a Trustee of the Johns Hopkins Jack Ma, shouldn’t we instead be how to cope. Alibaba’s human and University. He joined Baillie Gifford thinking that China has every machine scientists need to see how in 1983 and became a Partner in chance of being as rich as America such unparalleled data sets can be 1987. He headed our European on a per capita basis? Although this sorted and interpreted to further Equity team until 2003 when he will take time to come to fruition, strengthen links to individual co-founded our Long Term Global if 7% annual growth continues for customers. Growth strategy and has been the another decade then even Anglo- At present the US and China Manager and then Joint Manager American commentators might of Scottish Mortgage Investment compete for global leadership in have to acknowledge a shifting Trust since 2000. machine learning and artificial world order. In any case pessimism intelligence. But it’s likely that in about world growth would have the next decade Chinese leadership proven rather exaggerated. will become firmly established. likely to be helpfully symbiotic For markets it’s only companies of As Martin Lau of Tencent (the than damagingly exclusive. That’s the significance and scale of Alibaba, other Chinese technology giant great for us all. In healthcare the and tectonic shifts in perception to have added a mere $200 billion combination of data empowering such as China potentially becoming of market value in 2017) puts it, personalised medicine, and the as rich as America on a per capita scale is more of an advantage to collapse in the price and rise basis, that are worthy of attention. China in a data age than it was in in performance of genomic There’s a persistent illusion that the manufacturing era. And in turn sequencing, will permit far earlier the normal is of relevance. It isn’t. data is the most important factor of and better diagnosis of health It matters not one iota to long-run production in our new economy. problems. Advances in gene therapy market returns that British GDP From the delivery of food through and synthetic biology ought to turns out to be a decimal point or to autonomous driving, this gives match cures with diagnosis for all two higher or lower than expected. brilliant and blindingly ambitious their societal challenges. It’s only of interest to traders, Chinese entrepreneurs a giant But let’s refocus on the specifics of speculators and investment banks if canvas to work on. Alibaba and the Chinese economy. quarterly earnings reports exceed or There follow wider and beneficial Alibaba recently celebrated its 18th disappoint expectations. As recent consequences. It’s already clear birthday. Revenue growth was 61% academic research has confirmed, that Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu and in the quarter to September 2017. most stocks don’t even outperform a host of their smaller and usually As the company points out, China’s bonds over their lifetime. Just affiliated brethren are expanding per capita GDP has compounded ignore the daily nonsense. Throw progress in data into early at an annual rate of 14% over the market forecasts in the nearest explorations of the potential to last 18 years. This means that the bin. Investment life is best lived in improve healthcare and education average citizen is almost 10 times the exponential extremes. We’re after the paralysis of recent decades. better off than when Alibaba was lucky to live in an era where In these contexts parallel efforts born. With its help, China now companies and economies can in China and America are more possesses the most advanced mobile grow to the sky. IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RISK FACTORS This article is issued by Baillie Gifford & Co Limited and does not in any way constitute investment advice. All information is sourced from Baillie Gifford & Co and is current unless otherwise stated. The views expressed in this article should not be considered as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment. Some of the views expressed are not necessarily those of Baillie Gifford. Investment markets and conditions can change rapidly, therefore the views expressed should not be taken as statements of fact nor should reliance be placed on them when making investment decisions. This article contains information on investments which does not constitute independent investment research. Accordingly, it is not subject to the protections afforded to independent research and Baillie Gifford and its staff may have dealt in the investments concerned. Please remember that the value of a stock market investment and any income from it can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount invested. The trust invests in overseas securities. Changes in the rates of exchange may also cause the value of your investment (and any income it may pay) to go down or up. The trust invests in emerging markets where difficulties in dealing, settlement and custody could arise, resulting in a negative impact on the value of your investment. The trust’s risk could be increased by its investment in unlisted investments. These assets may be more difficult to buy or sell, so changes in their prices may be greater. trustnet.com 13
YOUR PORTFOLIO FOLLOWING AMAZON Anthony Luzio seeks out the most effective way to tap into the e-commerce boom and shoulders above all others – One number that isn’t so W ITH TRADITIONAL Amazon. And the figures speak impressive is the bottom line. HIGH STREET for themselves: for every dollar While Amazon has recently begun STORES IN LONG- spent online in the US last year, to turn a profit, this is mainly TERM DECLINE, the Amazon captured 53 cents. It down to Amazon Web Services, natural place for investors to turn accounted for 4 per cent of total the company’s cloud-computing to is online retail. But just because retail sales and is expected to unit. It still loses money from its e-commerce has dealt a fatal blow bring in $200bn in 2018. retail operations and it is this, to many of the shops we grew up As Janus Henderson’s John combined with a $650bn market with, does this automatically Pattullo put it: “We were at an cap and P/E of above 200, that make it a good investment? Amazon Disruption Day run by has led some investors to call it When it comes to internet Morgan Stanley recently – we overvalued. shopping, one name stands head went with trepidation and we came back pretty scared. Even the thought that Amazon is going to move into something like the pharmaceutical sector causes that sector to sell off and companies to start consolidating on the back of it.” 14 trustnet.com
/ E-COMMERCE / However Tom Slater of the Scottish Mortgage Investment “We were at an Amazon Trust says investors need to look at the bigger picture and that with Disruption Day run by Morgan companies such as Amazon, it is about where they will be in five Stanley recently – we went with years’ time at the very least. trepidation and we came back pretty scared” “I think there’s this idea that Amazon isn’t interested in making money because it has persistently low margins,” he explains. “I see it slightly “If you go to the biggest day of value. Like Amazon, he notes it differently, which is that it takes Chinese retail, Singles Day, there continues to reinvest its increasing the profits from things that are $25bn of sales on Alibaba’s free cash-flow into new markets. are working and invests them website,” says Slater. “If you got “Alibaba is still in the early extremely aggressively in new every website in the US on Cyber phase of monetising its customer areas. I would be astonished if Monday, they took $6bn.” base and increasing engagement its books business, for example, While these figures are as it continues to increase its didn’t have extremely attractive impressive on their own, what is data management capability and margins given its global market truly staggering is that within the network reach,” he says. share. It’s just that you never see next decade Alibaba expects to see “The diversification of revenue that, and that’s why looking at sales on this scale every day and is streams is creating strong captive short-term earnings multiples can currently using the levels seen on eco-systems, which will continue be quite dangerous.” Singles Day to stress-test its service. to engage and grow its customer He adds that you do not need to Aside from the growth of base further. The high investment delve too deeply into the numbers online shopping, Alibaba is also will pay dividends in the medium to see the benefits of this strategy benefiting from the growth of the to long term as net profits – Amazon’s revenue growth Chinese middle class. As Scottish continue to see steady and healthy hasn’t fallen below 20 per cent in Mortgage’s James Anderson notes absolute growth, which we believe the past 10 years, and the figure on page 12, China’s per capita the market is underappreciating.” for 2017 stands at 31 per cent GDP has compounded at an compared with about 6 per cent annual rate of 14 per cent over for the wider market. the past 18 years, helping Alibaba to drive revenue growth of OPEN SESAME 61 per cent in the quarter to To consider just how far Amazon September 2017. can go, we need to address the It is currently on a P/E of falsehood at the beginning of just over 40 with a market cap of this article – that the company $450bn and Gary Greenberg, head stands head and shoulders above of emerging markets at Hermes, the competition when it comes believes it has scope to to online retail. The truth is its create further scale is dwarfed by its Chinese counterpart, Alibaba. trustnet.com 15
/ E-COMMERCE / LATE TO THE PARTY After looking at how far the likes “It is not just about having of Alibaba and Amazon have come already – both have gone up lorries. Clothing retailers need more than 10-fold since Slater first added them to Scottish Mortgage, the returns sorted, dispatched for example – some investors who to a dedicated steam room, re- hung, bagged and returned” are wistful of missing out on the easy money may be tempted to look for the next big thing instead. However Catherine Yeung, Fidelity’s investment director BACK HOME “We have witnessed significant in Hong Kong, says this is an ASOS and Boohoo are the improvements in online extremely risky strategy as the e-commerce leaders in the UK, but transaction security and growth in scale of the forerunners means neither has the scale of Amazon credit payment options, with firms they are effectively running an or Alibaba, although both have such as Worldpay and Experian “e-commerce monopoly”. similarly weighty P/E ratios. benefiting from the growth of She pointed to what happened Many fund managers believe a payments online,” he adds. with Chinese online retailer better way to play the theme of There is no doubt the internet’s JD.com – which has a market cap online retail is through investing stranglehold on retail will tighten of $60bn – when it tried to expand. in its “picks and shovels” instead. over the long term, nor is there “One of its spin-offs is called VIP Nigel Thomas, manager of AXA much doubt about who the major Shop whose market share is in the Framlington Select Opportunities, players will be. The question low teens,” she explains. “In June notes 40 per cent of the products is whether you think they are it has its equivalent to Alibaba’s delivered by ASOS are returned, worth the sky-high multiples Singles Day and this quarter is which has led to the growth of they command. You can opt for where it had its highest sales. But reverse logistics companies. one of the satellite industries that Alibaba just came in over the top “It is not just about having supports the e-commerce boom, and there was nothing it could do.” lorries, vans and distribution but with a smaller company there centres. Clothing retailers need is the risk its business model will the returns sorted, dispatched to be disrupted by the next big thing a dedicated steam room, re-hung – much like the high street itself. and bagged, and returned to the retailer,” he says. “We invested in Eddie Stobart Logistics, which has expanded into this area, leveraging its expertise in distribution centres and ‘middle mile’ haulage.” Thomas says payment is another crucial area of e-commerce. 16 trustnet.com
IN FOCUS Fund POLAR CAPITAL UK ABSOLUTE EQUITY moments – of 5.73 per cent is higher than the 1.12 per cent average. However, many absolute return funds have posted a higher Guy Rushton’s fund is the best-performer in its sector maximum drawdown in the past since launch, but it may not be suitable for every three years, with several hit by double-digit losses. absolute return investor Rushton has put this risk to good T use and the fund’s Sharpe ratio – a HE POLAR CAPITAL UK lowest was 7.49 per cent, its measure of risk-adjusted returns ABSOLUTE EQUITY FUND performance in 2016. – of 2.08 is by far the highest in was launched little over Of course, the IA Targeted the peer group. JPM Global Macro three years ago but has generated Absolute Return sector is a mixed Opportunities in second place has what is by far the highest total bag of funds with aims ranging a score of 0.86. return of the IA Targeted Absolute from extreme capital preservation The fund was awarded the Return sector over this time. through to aggressive bets against highest score of five FE Crowns Between launch on 29 equities. The Polar Capital fund when it first became eligible for September 2014 and the end of has surged to the top of the the award in January, as a result January 2018, Guy Rushton’s performance table because of its of its superior performance in £502.8m fund made 115.2 per focus on equities, which offer the terms of stockpicking, consistency cent, compared with just 8.83 per potential for high returns but with and risk control. cent from the sector average and correspondingly high levels of risk. Charles Younes, research 39.10 per cent from the fund in For example, the fund’s manager at FE, said: “The long/ second place, JPM Global Macro annualised volatility since launch short equity Polar Capital fund Opportunities. is 10.75 per cent, the fifth-highest returned a positive performance Polar Capital UK Absolute Equity score in the sector, where the of 47.51 per cent last year with its aims to deliver positive absolute average stands at just 1.75 per stockpicking and long exposure to returns over 12-month periods by cent. Likewise, its maximum materials, IT and financials paying investing on a long/short basis, drawdown – the amount investors off. But this is a highly volatile mainly in UK equities, although it can would have lost if they bought strategy, which does not suit every take a small exposure to European and sold at the worst possible investor profile.” and global equities as well. Data from FE Analytics shows the fund has succeeded in its 12-month positive absolute return PERFORMANCE OF FUND VS SECTOR SINCE LAUNCH target on a rolling basis in every 120% Polar Capital UK Absolute Equity (115.2%) one of the 29 months of relevant track record. Its highest 12-month IA Targeted Absolute Return (8.83%) 100% return stands at 47.51 per cent, which it achieved in 2017; the 80% 60% FILE 40% MANAGER: Guy Rushton LAUNCHED: 29/09/2014 20% FUND SIZE: £502.8m 0% OCF: 1.15% (plus 20% performance fee) -20% FE CROWN RATING: 4 5 r l t 6 r l t 7 r l t 8 Ju Ju Ju Oc Oc Oc Ap Ap Ap t1 n1 n1 n1 n1 Oc Ja Ja Ja Ja Source: FE Analytics 18 trustnet.com
/ FUND, PENSION, TRUST / Pension F&C RESPONSIBLE INCOME More recently, given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the impact of weaker sterling on domestic consumer spending, Despite being limited in the type of stocks this fund can Stanley has favoured UK stocks hold, it has still outperformed its sector in the short term with strong balance sheets and attractive dividends. E Despite the fund’s ethical THICAL FUNDS HAVE cent from the average IA UK Equity focus, a number of well-known A REPUTATION FOR Income fund and enough to put it in income generators can be found UNDERPERFORMING THEIR the top-quartile of its sector. among its top holdings, such as MORE CONVENTIONAL PEERS as The fund opened for business in banks HSBC and Lloyds, insurers they have a smaller universe of 1987. It invests in UK companies Legal & General and Prudential, screened stocks to choose from. whose products and operations pharmaceutical GlaxoSmithKline, As such, ethical funds account for “are considered to be of long-term consumer goods company just £15bn of the total £1.2trn of benefit to the community at home Unilever, mobile phone operator industry funds under management, and abroad”. Vodafone and miner BHP Billiton. or around 1.3 per cent. The asset manager noted that F&C Responsible Income’s However, there are a number of such companies will generally largest sector weighting is to UK-focused strategies that have exclude those “considered to be financials, which represent 29.4 been able to outperform their involved with harmful products and per cent of the portfolio; followed peers and the FTSE All Share index practices or trading extensively by industrials (11.9 per cent); despite these restraints. with oppressive regimes”. telecommunications, media & One such fund is F&C While this limits the type of stocks technology (10.7 per cent); and, Responsible Income, formerly it can hold, avoiding companies services (10.5 per cent). known as F&C Stewardship that focus on short-term gains at The fund can also hold ethically Income, which offers exposure all costs helps to keep risk under screened corporate bonds to help it to UK equity income with a more control and the fund is a top- meet its income target. ethical focus. quartile performer over three years It is currently yielding 3.9 per BMO Global Asset Management’s in terms of suppressing maximum cent, which is lower than the 4.12 ethical investing specialist drawdown and volatility. per cent of the sector average. Catherine Stanley has headed up the £330m fund since 2009. She also runs its £418.4m sister fund, F&C Responsible UK Equity PERFORMANCE OF FUND VS SECTOR AND INDEX OVER 3YRS Growth. 40% IA UK Equity Income (21.59%) F&C Responsible Income has F&C Responsible UK Income (25.21%) made 25.21 per cent over the past 30% FTSE All Share (25.85%) three years, slightly below the FTSE All Share index’s gain of 25.85 per 20% cent, but ahead of the 21.59 per 10% FILE 0% MANAGER: Catherine Stanley LAUNCHED: 13/10/1987 -10% FUND SIZE: £330m OCF: 0.81% -20% FE CROWN RATING: 5 r n g t c 6 r n g t c 7 r n g t c Oc Oc Oc Ap Ap Ap De De De b1 b1 b1 Au Au Au Ju Ju Ju Fe Fe Fe Source: FE Analytics trustnet.com 19
/ FUND, PENSION, TRUST / Trust CAPITAL GEARING TRUST Peter Spiller’s trust would add some stability to a portfolio with a high equity exposure W ITH CENTRAL BANKS market rallies, we believe it is an cent from the FTSE All Share and AROUND THE WORLD attractive vehicle for investors a volatility score of 13.75 per cent. expected to ratchet up looking for low-volatility long- It performed particularly well in the speed of interest-rate hikes term capital growth.” 2008 and 2011 when markets fell, this year, the bond market looks The trust’s main aim is to making top-quartile returns. like a poor choice for anyone preserve capital over the short- However, it is a bottom-quartile looking to shelter their cash term and generate strong risk- performer over one, three and five from market volatility. However, adjusted returns over the long- years, failing to participate in as Peter Spiller of the Capital term. As well as index-linked much of the equity market upside, Gearing Trust is turning to index- bonds, it is 40 per cent weighted and was hit particularly hard in linked government bonds – which to funds/equities, further 2013 around the time of the taper currently account for 37 per cent diversified through underlying tantrum. of the portfolio’s assets – in a bid exposure to property, equities, It may be worth pairing the to maintain his solid track record private equity/hedge funds, loans investment company with other, of preserving investors’ capital. and infrastructure. more out-and-out growth- Index-linked government bonds It has an impressive record of orientated equity strategies will protect against a rise in delivering solid absolute returns – though weightings will vary inflation, something Spiller – along with considerably lower volatility depending on investor risk with co-managers Alastair Laing than that of the equity market. tolerance. and Chris Clothier – believes is For example, it has returned The trust’s shares are at a 2 per likely to persist with global debt 105.94 per cent over the past cent premium, according to data levels “unsustainably high”. 10 years, with an annualised from the Association of Investment “Their view is that this can volatility of 8.92 per cent, Companies (AIC). It has ongoing only be remedied by a sustained compared with a gain of 98.08 per charges of 0.86 per cent. period of inflation and he points to signs of rising wage growth in the US as evidence that inflationary pressures are building,” said PERFORMANCE OF TRUST VS INDEX OVER 10YRS Kieran Drake, analyst at 120% Capital Gearing Trust (105.94%) Winterflood Investment Trusts. “While the significant allocation 100% FTSE All Share (98.08%) to bonds will mean that the 80% fund is likely to lag strong equity 60% FILE 40% MANAGERS: Peter Spiller, Alastair 20% Laing & Chris Clothier LAUNCHED: 1963 0% PREMIUM/DISCOUNT: +2% -20% OCF: 0.86% -40% FE CROWN RATING: 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 b0 b0 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Source: FE Analytics 20 trustnet.com
IN FOCUS MISSED THE BOAT? Anyone who thinks Brexit worries have created a value opportunity in UK small caps may be a year too late, warns Adam Lewis I NVESTORS IN UK the time to buy UK small caps and “Before we go any further, it is SMALLER that the sector could be due a bout clear an allocation to UK small COMPANY of volatility in the short-term. caps makes sense for any long- INVESTMENT “Mid and small caps, more term investor,” Paget continues. TRUSTS enjoyed a generally, witnessed a degree of “In fact, we would argue they bumper 12 months last year, as the mean reversion following painful, should form a core allocation sector continued its recovery from Brexit-induced declines in 2016 within a long-term portfolio.” the shock of Brexit in 2016. while many active managers “However, over the shorter term, Having made a meagre return of in the space boosted returns by we see a variety of risks, which 3.98 per cent in 2016, the average shifting their portfolios towards in the context of narrower than IT Smaller Companies trust posted more internationally exposed average discounts, could dampen gains of 27.62 per cent last year as stocks,” says Paget. appetite for small caps. For UK domestic stocks rallied. example, rightly or wrongly, mid As a result, the sector re-rated A MISSED OPPORTUNITY heavily, with the average discount He points to the narrowing narrowing from 14 per cent at of discounts over the last 12 the start of 2017 to its current months as evidence of what may figure of 9 per cent. Alex Paget, have been a missed opportunity, a research analyst at Kepler with the current figure standing Partners, says that with the benefit below the five-year average of of hindsight, early last year was about 11 per cent. 22 trustnet.com
/ SECTOR PROFILE / and small caps are likely to be the PERFORMANCE OF IA AND IT SECTORS worst hit if there are any hiccups in the ongoing Brexit negotiations.” 1yr (%) 3yr (%) 5yr (%) 10yr (%) IA UK Smaller Companies 24.79 58.92 104.23 205.43 GROWING COMPLACENT More generally, however, Paget IT UK Smaller Companies 24.6 67.05 117.7 244.57 says there is clearly a growing sense of complacency among Source: FE Analytics investors and this, combined with high multiples across the market, leaves equities open to a Innes Urquhart, a research doesn’t force managers to buy correction if there is any change to analyst at Winterflood, says and sell shares based on inflows the status quo. another reason why UK Smaller and outflows, works particularly “Smaller companies, with their Companies trusts trade on wider well for UK smaller companies, in higher-beta characteristics, would discounts is because of the particular at the micro cap level. likely be hit hard in such an element of illiquidity in their This contention is backed up event,” he says. assets. In this sense he says the by the figures. The average fund Despite a significant re-rating in investment trust structure, which in the IA UK Smaller Companies 2017, the average IT UK Smaller sector made 24.79 per cent last Companies discount remains year, marginally ahead of its wider than the average for the investment trust universe – 3.3 per cent at the end of 2017, compared with 5.1 per cent 12 months earlier. To put 2017’s figure in historical context, the long-run average discount for the investment trust universe since the end of 1989 stands at 9.4 per cent. As such, Winterflood also warns that with 2018 marking the 10th anniversary of the global financial crisis, and with the bull market now entering its ninth year, there is reason to believe discounts could widen again in the not-too- distant future. trustnet.com 23
/ SECTOR PROFILE / IT counterpart. Over longer PERFORMANCE OF TRUSTS VS INDEX OVER 10YRS time periods, however, this performance gap reverses, and 500% BlackRock Smaller Companies IT (423.86%) does so significantly. The average open-ended small cap fund has 400% Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust (487.15%) made 58.92 per cent, 104.23 per 300% cent and 205.43 per cent over FTSE All Share (98.08%) three, five and 10 years, compared 200% with 67.05 per cent, 117.7 per cent and 244.57 per cent from its 100% closed-ended counterpart. 0% THE STOMACH FOR IT -100% “For those who can stomach volatility and are willing to 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 b0 b0 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 b1 Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe focus on the long-term, we think Aberforth Smaller Companies is an interesting proposition at this stage,” says Paget. “It is the There is clearly a growing sense of complacency among investors most value-orientated member of either the open- or closed-ended and this leaves equities open to a sectors and is managed by a highly experienced and well-resourced team with a strong track record.” “However, thanks to this correction value style (and though it has outperformed its benchmark), it (whether that be from an absolute Winterflood added The has struggled to keep pace with or relative perspective) following Mercantile Investment Trust to many of its peers over the past five a long period in the doldrums its mid and small cap exposure in years (and in 2017 in particular). and, in such an environment, the 2018 rebalancing of its model We think value investing is Aberforth should be a prime portfolio, replacing the River & due a long-term return to form beneficiary.” Mercantile UK Micro Cap trust. 24 trustnet.com
/ SECTOR PROFILE / “We have switched to The best performer Mercantile Investment Trust, which we believe offers a better RIVER & MERCANTILE UK MICRO CAP value opportunity on its current River & Mercantile UK Micro Cap is the best performer in the IT UK Smaller discount of 9 per cent,” says Companies sector over the last 12 months with a share price return of 63.83 Urquhart. While this discount per cent. It is also the second best performer in the sector over three years with has narrowed considerably over gains of 115.9 per cent, which helps to explain why it moved from a 9 per cent the last year, he adds that it has discount to a 16.2 per cent premium in the 12 months to the start of February. an active buyback policy which The trust invests in UK companies with market capitalisations of less than has seen 6.3 million shares, or £100m, which according to Winterflood makes it ideally suited to the investment 7 per cent of its share capital trust structure. At the time of going to press, River & Mercantile has just announced George Ensor will be taking over from manager Philip Rodrigs after worth £117m, bought back since the latter left the business following a professional conduct issue. the start of 2017. “Consequently we believe that downside discount volatility is relatively limited, which in our The discount play opinion, is important at a time THE MERCANTILE INVESTMENT TRUST of historically tight discounts across the sector.” Unlike its ultra small-cap cousin, The Mercantile Investment Trust, run by JP Winterflood also holds Mike Morgan Asset Management, targets UK mid and small caps. Its assets of £2.2bn Prentis’s BlackRock Smaller mean it is currently the largest of those trusts investing predominately in the UK Companies trust, the discount market. Although it sits in the IT All Companies sector, Winterflood added it to the of which has also narrowed. small cap part of its model portfolio at the start of the year. The trust struggled during the second half of 2016 due to an overweight position in UK consumers However, at 14.8 per cent, he and underweight position in energy and resources at the time of Brexit, but it is says it remains wider than its still ranked first quartile over one and three years. five-year average, and wider than the average figure for the sector. “There are a number of The long-termer strong trusts to choose from STANDARD LIFE UK SMALLER COMPANIES in the sector,” Urquhart says. “We rate Henderson Smaller While much attention has been focused on the short-term performance of UK Companies, which has a great small caps, the product with the best 10-year track record is Harry Nimmo’s long-term track record and Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust. The trust is up 487.15 per cent over trades at a double-digit discount. this time, compared with 423.86 per cent from the second-best performer – We also like the Standard Life BlackRock UK Smaller Companies. Nimmo uses Standard Life’s Matrix as part of his investment process: a quant-based screening system that highlights high- UK Smaller Companies Trust, quality businesses with a competitive advantage which should lead to consistent although it has moved out to a and sustainable earnings growth. He is also known for running his winners: small premium.” holding companies through their maturation for as long as he sees value. 26 trustnet.com
You can also read