FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the e-commerce boom - PRICE AND PREJUDICE - HubSpot

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FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the e-commerce boom - PRICE AND PREJUDICE - HubSpot
Issue 37 / February 2018

FOLLOWING          PRICE AND           KEEP IT
AMAZON             PREJUDICE           GROWING
Tapping the        Is value making a   The case for taking
e-commerce boom    comeback?           risk in retirement
FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the e-commerce boom - PRICE AND PREJUDICE - HubSpot
EDITOR’S LETTER
 Issue 37 / February 2018

                                                                                  T
                                                                                               HE BEST-PERFORMING STOCK ON THE
                                                                                               FTSE ALL SHARE LAST YEAR wasn’t the
                                                                                               UK’s answer to Facebook or Google, nor was it
                                                                                               a miner riding a price rebound in its
                                                                                  underlying commodity. Amid all the talk of a sector in
                                                                                  long-term decline, the index’s top-performer in 2017 was
                                                                                  actually high-street stalwart Games Workshop, with gains
 FOLLOWING
 AMAZON
 Tapping the
                    PRICE AND
                    PREJUDICE
                    Is value making a
                                        KEEP IT
                                        GROWING
                                        The case for taking
                                                              of more than 300 per cent. While the manufacturer of fantasy board games is
                                                              by no means a typical store and it makes approximately 70 per cent of sales
 e-commerce boom    comeback?           risk in retirement

                                                              from overseas, it still demonstrates what investors could be missing out on if
                        ISSUE 37                              they tarnish an entire sector with the same brush, as Rebecca Jones finds out
                                                              in this issue’s cover feature.
                                                                 If you like the idea of finding value in out-of-favour stocks, the
                                                              good news – according to an article from Cherry Reynard – is that
                                                              the conditions look extremely favourable for this type of investing.
CREDITS                                                       However, Adam Lewis says the bad news is that all the easy gains in UK
                                                              small caps, which have a higher exposure to the UK consumer, may
                                                              have already been made. I look at the other side of the coin as I search for
TRUSTNET MAGAZINE (FORMERLY                                   the best way to tap into the unstoppable rise of internet shopping.
INVESTAZINE) IS PUBLISHED BY                                     In our regular columns, John Blowers floats the idea of maintaining
THE TEAM BEHIND FE TRUSTNET IN
SOHO, LONDON.                                                 the same level of risk throughout your retirement, MitonOptimal’s
                                                              Paul Warner reveals why he is adding Montanaro UK Income to his SRI
WEBSITE: WWW.TRUSTNETDIRECT.COM                               Balanced Growth portfolio and Gervais Williams names three stocks he
EMAIL: EDITORIAL@FINANCIALEXPRESS.NET
                                                              is backing in another out-of-favour sector – oil.
CONTACTS:
                                                                Enjoy reading,
Anthony Luzio
Editor
T: 0207 534 7652

Art direction & design
Javier Otero
W: www.feedingcrows.co.uk

Editorial
Gary Jackson
Editor (FE Trustnet)
T: 0207 534 7680
Rob Langston
News editor
T: 0207 534 7696
Lauren Mason
Senior reporter
T: 0207 534 7625
Jonathan Jones
Reporter
T: 0207 534 7640

Sales
Richard Fletcher
Head of publishing sales
T: 0207 534 7662
Richard Casemore
Account manager
T: 0207 534 7669

Photos supplied by Thinkstock                                                                  In association with:
and Photoshot
Cover illustration: Javier Otero
FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the e-commerce boom - PRICE AND PREJUDICE - HubSpot
IN THIS ISSUE

    8

   22

                                                                                                    28

DEATH OF THE HIGH STREET Rebecca Jones says the long-term decline of traditional retail doesn’t make
it a no-go area for investors P. 2-5 / AIM FOR THE STARS James Henderson believes the AIM index contains
the next generation of UK companies that could drive the economy for years to come P. 6-7 / PRICE AND
PREJUDICE There are signs the out-of-favour value strategy is coming back into fashion, writes Cherry
Reynard P. 8-10 / REGARDS FROM SHANGHAI Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust’s James Anderson says
Alibaba represents the future of retail P. 12-13 / FOLLOWING AMAZON Anthony Luzio seeks out the best
way to tap the e-commerce boom P. 14-16 / FUND, PENSION, TRUST Polar Capital UK Absolute Equity, F&C
Responsible Income and Capital Gearing Trust find themselves under the spotlight this month P. 18-20 /
MISSED THE BOAT? Anyone who thinks Brexit worries have created a value opportunity in UK small caps may
be a year too late, warns Adam Lewis P. 22-26 / KEEP IT GROWING The notion of de-risking your pension pot
as you approach retirement may have had its day, writes John Blowers P. 28-31 / WELL-OILED Miton’s Gervais
Williams names three oil producers set to benefit from the commodity’s price recovery P. 32 / WHAT I BOUGHT
LAST MitonOptimal’s Paul Warner says Montanaro UK Income is suitable for the group’s SRI portfolios even
though it isn’t marketed for this purpose P. 33
FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the e-commerce boom - PRICE AND PREJUDICE - HubSpot
YOUR PORTFOLIO

2                    trustnet.com
FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the e-commerce boom - PRICE AND PREJUDICE - HubSpot
/ UK RETAIL /

                The retail sector as we know it is
                changing beyond all recognition,
                but this doesn’t make it a no-go
                   area for investors, writes
                         Rebecca Jones

                 U
                            K RETAILERS AREN’T HAVING A
                            GREAT TIME OF IT. Over the past
                            decade, brands once synonymous with
                            everyday British shopping habits – from
                            Marks & Spencer to Tesco to department
               store goliath Debenhams – have reported sales figures
               that have become weaker and weaker. Despite a
               difficult backdrop, however, some unexpected
               winners are beginning to emerge in this new retail
               landscape – if you know where to look.

               ONLINE OR BUST
               The arch nemesis of the high street is, undoubtedly,
               the internet. Online retailers have made sourcing and
               purchasing even the most obscure items effortless,
               leaving little reason for consumers to tackle high street
               crowds. Areas that have been hit particularly hard
               by this trend include books, media and electronics
               – products that arguably only the most eccentric
               consumers refuse to source from Amazon or iTunes.
               The demise of entertainment retailers including Virgin
               Megastores (later Zavvi) and HMV between 2009 and
               2014 is testament to this, while Dixons is clinging on by
               its fingernails after the collapse of Comet in 2012.
                  Fashion retailing is one of the more recent victims.
               An area once thought to be safe from the online
               juggernaut due to the vagaries of size and fit that
               were most efficiently navigated onsite has been
               transformed by companies making it easier than
               ever to find the perfect outfit. Keith Ashworth-Lord,
               manager of the Sanford DeLand UK Buffettology
               fund, explains: “In fashion, the trend is absolutely
               away from bricks and mortar, towards online. I only
               have to look at my daughter who orders three sizes
               of something then sends two back the next day to see
               that. When the market cap of ASOS overtakes Marks
               & Spencer, that tells you something.”
                  While fending off the internet giants, high street
               retailers have also had to contend with rising rents.
               Ashworth-Lord says that property values in many
               prime central retail locations have rocketed, hurting
               larger firms with big stores such as M&S, Debenhams
               and House of Fraser (the latter two recently issued
               crippling profit warnings). According to Gervais
               Williams, manager of the Miton UK MicroCap trust,
               this has compounded other cost concerns: “We’ve

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FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the e-commerce boom - PRICE AND PREJUDICE - HubSpot
been very cautious on this sector
for a long time – there are a lot of
headwinds. In the UK we’ve got the
minimum wage rising quite fast
at the moment, which affects a lot
of counter staff at retailers, adding
more pressure.”

POUND SALE
In addition to these longer-term
challenges, the UK’s vote to leave
the EU in June 2016 – and the
subsequent sharp devaluation of
the pound – has hurt businesses
across the board, although once
again, it’s retailers that are taking the
heat: “I think sterling was overdue
a correction, but for businesses that
import a lot of what they sell – and
that is predominately retailers – that
has been a problem, without doubt,”
says Ashworth-Lord. Williams
concurs, adding the currency hedges
that savvy importers may have
purchased pre-Brexit will now likely
be expiring, adding further cost-woe
for some retailers.
   Perhaps more important,
however, is the effect that
shrinking sterling has had on the              “Games Workshop is totally fan-
UK consumer. Inflation has been
glued to the floor since the Bank
                                               based. The people that buy this
of England embarked on its titanic             product would find this store if it
                                               was 100ft underground”
monetary stimulus programme in
2009, however Brexit has pushed it
back up to pre-crisis levels of more
than 3 per cent. While this in itself
is not bad news, wage stagnation            back-to-basics German discounters       SURVIVORS AND THRIVERS
has provided a double whammy:               Aldi and Lidl have stolen a march       Despite all this doom and gloom,
“Simply put, wages are not rising           on British stalwarts such as Tesco      managers insist there is hope for
as fast as prices and that squeeze is       and Sainsbury’s. Williams explains:     Britain’s high street retailers. Perhaps
onerous. Sterling has strengthened          “It used to be that people looked for   unsurprisingly, one of the most
of late, but despite this – and rising      the widest range. Now many are          important survival factors is an
employment – the consumer is                happy with smaller local retailers      online offering. Ashworth points
struggling,” says James Henderson,          [where] you don’t need to choose        to Next – one of the few fashion
manager of the Henderson                    from 15 types of pepper.”               retailers that is holding up in the
Opportunities Trust.                           While this has not yet extended      current environment – as a case
   Even more worrying for                   far beyond groceries, Williams          in point: “The trend is very clearly
investors, though, is the most              says this could be a trend to watch:    towards online and what we have
recent trend to emerge among                “There’s a pattern where people are     to look for as investors are the
consumers: that of not – in-fact –          getting tired of having too many        businesses that are best placed to
consuming. This is most evident             things. I think they are changing       withdraw from the high street. For
in the supermarket sector, where            their behaviour a bit.”                 me, Next fits this bill. The average

4                                                                                                            trustnet.com
FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the e-commerce boom - PRICE AND PREJUDICE - HubSpot
/ UK RETAIL /

                                                      there are plenty of bricks and               In no company is the specialist
                                                      mortar retailers that are growing         dynamic more evident than fantasy
                                                      – and playing to the consumer             board game manufacturer Games
                                                      squeeze is key. His holdings in           Workshop – the best performing
                                                      Shoezone, convenience store chain         stock on the FTSE All Share last
                                                      McColl’s and Bargain Booze-owner          year – and a standout performer
                                                      Conviviality have performed well          for Ashworth-Lord: “That is really
                                                      thanks to a combination of renting        specialist and totally fanbased.
                                                      units in cheaper areas, discounting       The people that buy this product
                                                      and an astute awareness of                would find this store if it was 100ft
                                                      customers’ needs. Matt Hudson,            underground.”
                                                      co-manager of the Schroder UK                As Games Workshop shows, a
                                                      Opportunities fund, points to B&M         strong brand encouraging a loyal
                                                      – an everyday essentials retailer         customer base still has a role to
                                                      that is expanding fast: “B&M is           play in retailing – despite price
                                                      putting down more space, but it           becoming ever more important.
                                                      buys in bulk and sources well from        For Hudson, urban streetwear
                                                      Asia. It’s a price-competitive model      label Superdry is another good
                                                      set up to ensure that low price is        example. Launched in 2004, the
                                                      passed on to consumers, and they          brand has grown through the
                                                      seem to like that.”                       label-love of the mid 2000s to
                                                                                                emerge as a staple for mid-level
                                                      SPECIAL SAUCE                             consumers, while its expansion
                                                      Businesses that provide specialist        into Asia and the US is providing
                                                      products and services are also more       support. “In the UK, [Superdry]
                                                      likely to thrive and Henderson and        only has 100 stores, but the real
                                                      Hudson point to Halfords as an            strength has been the way it has
                                                      example: “Halfords is a destination       distributed the brand globally.
rental lease on its stores is around                  if you want to motor or bicycle, so       It’s on trend with the growth of
seven years, so it can get out pretty                 it has a role as a high street retailer   athletic leisurewear and we’ve
quickly, while it is growing purely                   as it is not something that’s easy        seen lots of stocks in that area do
through online sales.”                                to do online. Specialists can buck        really well,” Hudson says.
  Shutting up shop isn’t the only                     trends more easily than generalists,”        The future of UK retailers is
option. As Henderson observes,                        Henderson argues.                         perhaps more uncertain than it
                                                                                                has ever been. The pace of growth
                                                                                                in online retail has caught many
                                                                                                investors by surprise and if Moore’s
              PERFORMANCE OF STOCKS VS INDEX IN 2017                                            Law is anything to go by, it’s not
                                                                                                going to slow down. The more
  350%                 Games Workshop (311.01%)                                                 short-term headwinds buffeting
  300%                 ConvivialityRetail (93.93%)                                              the sector – namely the post-Brexit
  250%                 McolsRetail (48.84%)                                                     consumer squeeze – will die down.
                       FTSE All Share (13.10%)
                                                                                                However, retailing is going through
  200%
                                                                                                a fundamental shift and investors
  150%                                                                                          must ensure they pick the winners.
  100%                                                                                          Hudson summarises: “The most
                                                                                                important thing is that retailers
   50%
                                                                                                acknowledge these changes in
    0%                                                                                          consumer behaviour, how they
  -50%                                                                                          impact their businesses and have
                                                                                                the flexibility to take on that
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                                                                                                challenge. Those that can embrace
                       M

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Source: FE Analytics                                                                            the change will survive.” 

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FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the e-commerce boom - PRICE AND PREJUDICE - HubSpot
For promotional purposes

                AIM FOR
               THE STARS
        James Henderson of the Henderson Opportunities Trust says
      the AIM index contains the next generation of UK companies that
                 could drive the economy for years to come

  T
             HERE ARE ALWAYS         strong headwinds, with a             companies such a good hunting
              MONEY-MAKING           slowdown in economic activity        ground for opportunities, despite
              INVESTMENT             predicted. There is also the         the economic backdrop. ASOS had
              OPPORTUNITIES          structural challenge caused by       a value of a few million pounds in
              waiting out in the     yesterday’s strong franchises        2005 and it now has a market value
market and it is only lack of        rapidly being reduced to today’s     of £5bn (Source: Bloomberg, February
imagination and idleness that stop   tired business models.               2018). It is still listed on AIM.
us professional investment             Think how Ladbrokes                   Many of the new, young
managers from taking them. This is   dominated the betting market         companies on AIM will fail but
a fact I have needed to remind       only for its market share to         this will primarily not be the
myself about in recent months. The   be eaten away by the online          fault of the economy – rather
UK can appear depressing with the    platforms or the way internet        their inadequacies as a business.
Brexit debate ratcheting up to the   clothes retail business ASOS went    In the same way the winners will
point of angry disagreement in       from a start-up to having a market   succeed because of their own
which everyone will be a loser and   capitalisation nearly the same as    efforts and excellence of product.
where real wages are falling. The    Marks and Spencer.                   It is refreshing every time to meet
large consumer stocks, property        It is the rapid speed of change    and talk to a new young company
companies and utilities are facing   that is making some AIM-listed       on AIM.

  6                                                                                            trustnet.com
FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the e-commerce boom - PRICE AND PREJUDICE - HubSpot
/ JANUS HENDERSON /

   For a start, Brexit is unlikely to           in the early days with absurd                                  There will be many
be mentioned. The successes come                valuations that proved to be                                 disappointments, but the next
in many different areas of activity.            businesses of no value, followed by a                        generation of dynamic UK
Tonic water producer Fevertree                  mining boom when the hype did not                            companies that will play their
and robotics company Blue Prism                 match the reality, resulting in heavy                        part in driving the UK economy
were two of the stars last year, while          losses for investors. These two events                       forward, regardless of Brexit and
Scapa, an industrial tape company,              dragged down the AIM returns.                                politicians, can be found on the
and Johnson Services, a laundry                 The returns since the 19th year                              over one thousand companies
business, have given very strong                anniversary have seen substantial                            that are on AIM. AIM can
returns recently. Success, like failure,        growth driven by a diverse range of                          therefore play an important part
comes in many different areas. An               stocks (see bottom chart).                                   in a well-balanced portfolio.
interesting characteristic of Scapa
and Johnson Group is that they
were both once quoted on the main
market. They had become problem-                          PERFORMANCE OF INDEX MAY 1997 TO MAY 2016
riddled old companies, but the
move to AIM and new management                   300%                                        FTSE AIM All Share -TOT Return IND (Rebased 100)
teams meant they rediscovered their
                                                 250%
purpose and drive. This shows it
is not only young companies that                 200%
succeed on AIM, old companies can                150%
reinvent themselves. It is the lighter
regulations and lower costs that                 100%                                                                                           -21.6%
mean some companies leave the                     50%
main market to join AIM and these
                                                   0%
can be important factors in their
recovery plans.
                                                  M 7
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                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
                                                   ay
   What, therefore, is the process for
                                                  M

finding a successful investment on              Source: Datastream, as at 12 May 2016. Rebased to 100, as at 12 May 1997
AIM? Given there is no blueprint
for success, there is no process for
finding a successful investment
other than doing the research. If you                     PERFORMANCE OF INDEX MAY 2016 TO NOV 2017
stay open to new ideas and then see
                                                 160%
a lot of companies already quoted                                     FTSE AIM All Share -TOT Return IND (Rebased 100)                          +44.5%
on AIM or coming to AIM every                    150%
so often, through elements of luck               140%
and hard observation, the successful             130%
investment will be found.                        120%
   AIM has had a good year but this              110%
has not always been the case: in fact            100%
the AIM index was down from its                   90%
launch in 1997 to May 2016 (see
                                                  80%
chart top-right).
                                                       16

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   The reasons for this were that
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investors had chased fashion. There
were too many tech companies                    Source: Datastream, as at 21 November 2017. Rebased to 100, as at 12 May 2016

Before investing in an investment trust referred to in this document, you should satisfy yourself as to its suitability and the risks involved,
you may wish to consult a financial adviser. [Past performance is not a guide to future performance]. The value of an investment and the
income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. [Tax assumptions and reliefs depend upon
an investor’s particular circumstances and may change if those circumstances or the law change]. Nothing in this document is intended
to or should be construed as advice. This document is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment. It does not form part of
any contract for the sale or purchase of any investment. [We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer
service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.]
Issued in the UK by Janus Henderson Investors. Janus Henderson Investors is the name under which Janus Capital International Limited
(reg no. 3594615), Henderson Global Investors Limited (reg. no. 906355), Henderson Investment Funds Limited (reg. no. 2678531),
AlphaGen Capital Limited (reg. no. 962757), Henderson Equity Partners Limited (reg. no.2606646), (each incorporated and registered in
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trustnet.com                                                                                                                                        7
FOLLOWING AMAZON Tapping the e-commerce boom - PRICE AND PREJUDICE - HubSpot
YOUR PORTFOLIO

           PRICE
       AND PREJUDICE
             Cherry Reynard says there are signs the out-of-favour
               value strategy could be coming back into fashion

    T
              t has been an              growth when it was hard to come       Estimates suggest that the
              uncomfortable time to      by in most other areas of the         consumer discretionary sector
              be a value manager         market. At the same time, banks       is now trading at a discount
              and even the most          and mining companies have             of around 25 per cent relative
              ardent followers of the    appeared too precarious for most      to industrials, yet there is no
discipline may be wondering              investors’ tastes.                    meaningful difference in earnings
whether it has had its day. After          The question then, with many        growth or future prospects.
almost a decade when the value           of the factors that have driven the      Value has started to fare better
style has lagged its peers, is it time   outperformance of growth styles       since the start of 2018, but Stephen
to admit defeat? Or could it be that     reversing, is whether this will       Peters, portfolio manager at
the underperformance is simply           change as the environment does?       Barclays Wealth and Investment
down to monetary policy and the          The US 10-year treasury yield, for    Management, points out that
scales will start to tip back now        example, is now edging towards 3      January 2017 saw a similar trend
that interest rates are rising?          per cent, having been as low as 2     before growth reasserted itself.
  Over the last 10 years, the MSCI       per cent in September 2017. This      At the same time, markets have
World Value index has delivered          means risk-averse investors no        shown that they can be insensitive
a total return 125.26 per cent,          longer have to look to the equity     to valuations for extended periods.
compared with 183.56 per cent            market for income.
from the equivalent growth index.                                              TURNING THE CORNER
Against an uncertain economic            FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS                 Nevertheless, asset allocators are
backdrop, investors have favoured        At the same time, economic            starting to adjust their portfolios
reliable growth with little concern      growth is no longer scarce. The       and there is a recognition the
for how much they paid for it.           IMF recently upgraded its global      environment may have finally
Few were willing to take a risk on       growth forecast to 3.9 per cent,      turned. James Klempster, head
unloved “value” names, such as           aided by US tax cuts and a buoyant    of portfolio management at
banks or mining companies.               Chinese economy. Companies are        Momentum Global Investment
                                         generally operating in a favourable   Management, says he normally
PROXIES                                  environment, meaning investors        maintains a balance between
Certainly, the monetary                  should no longer have to pay          equity and growth styles in
policy environment has been              higher prices for growth stocks       his portfolios, but is starting
contributory. Falling interest rates     when “weaker” companies are also      to tilt them towards value:
and the resulting low bond yields        delivering the goods.                 “Growth has been at the fore for
have made bond proxy sectors               This can be seen in the valuation   a number of years and has had a
attractive. This has driven the          differential between sectors          phenomenal time, but is now quite
performance of companies that            such as consumer discretionary        concentrated and value has been
delivered dependable earnings            companies and industrials.            left behind – it is bifurcated.”

8                                                                                                     trustnet.com
THE VALUE TRADE

trustnet.com                     9
/ THE VALUE TRADE /

                 PERFORMANCE OF INDICES OVER 10YRS                                         difficult. Peters says: “It will be
200%
                                                                                           interesting to see how some of the
                 MSCI AC World Growth (183.56%)                                            top-performing managers of the
150%
                                                                                           last few years and small- and mid-
                 MSCI AC World Value (125.26%)
                                                                                           cap focused managers do.”
                                                                                              There is a more nuanced point
100%
                                                                                           about active versus passive if
                                                                                           the environment is moving to
80%                                                                                        favour value, says Peters. Many of
                                                                                           the value names are to be found
80%                                                                                        among the largest companies
                                                                                           such as those in banking, mining
                                                                                           and the oil & gas sectors. Active
                                                                                           managers tend to hunt around
    8

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                                                                                           small and mid cap names and
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                                                                                   Fe
Source: FE Analytics                                                                       don’t see as many opportunities
                                                                                           to add value among their larger
                                                                                           counterparts. Fund managers

       Fund managers would need to
                                                                                           would need to be willing to rotate
                                                                                           towards the sectors that have

       be willing to rotate portfolios
                                                                                           struggled since the financial crisis
                                                                                           if they start to outperform and may
       towards the sectors that have                                                       end up looking more passive.
                                                                                              Value has had “dead cat bounces”
       struggled since the financial                                                       before, but this time feels different.
                                                                                           Monetary policy is shifting and
       crisis if they start to outperform                                                  this is finally being felt in bond
                                                                                           markets. All this influences
       and may end up looking more                                                         sector preferences among equity

       passive
                                                                                           investors and may tip the balance
                                                                                           towards value.

   He believes the gap is wider
in some countries than others,
adding: “We need to be careful
about regional allocation. Growth
in the US has done well and there
are more question marks over
valuations than in the UK or
Europe. That said, we believe there
are good opportunities in value-
driven strategies everywhere.”
   Which value managers are
likely to benefit most from this
environment? Proponents of this
style tend to fall into “extreme”
and “value-lite” approaches.
Peters says managers such as Old
Mutual’s Richard Buxton and
Jupiter’s Ben Whitmore – who
have long term contrarian styles
with a value tilt – stand to perform
well in this type of value-driven
market. However, their approach
is not so assiduous as to only
function in a “value” environment.
   At the same time, there are
managers who will find it more

10                                                                                                                 trustnet.com
REGARDS
                  from
               SHANGHAI
         I’ve seen the future and it probably works.

     I
              ’M WRITING AN           shopping day anywhere in the             Alibaba’s rise encapsulates the
              HOUR AFTER THE          world be it online or traditional.       ascent and challenges of the power
              PRIVILEGE OF A          Alibaba expects to process 360,000       of technology, its scale signals
              MEETING WITH            transactions a second in the coming      the awesome power of a small
              JACK MA. The            24 hours. No other company in the        number of giant corporations and
founder of Chinese internet giant     world comes close to this scale.         its example is a harbinger of an
Alibaba was in especially ebullient     Singles Day and Alibaba                age of Chinese progress and global
mood as he was preparing for the      symbolise developments that are          leadership that is barely grasped in
start of Singles Day – a company      transforming our economic and            even the most ambitious forecasts.
invented occasion that now attracts   social lives. The forces set in motion      Why does Alibaba promote
a TV audience twice the size of the   are highly likely to dominate            Singles Day? It’s great publicity
US Super Bowl and dwarfs any other    our lives and financial markets.         for sure and probably helps boost

12                                                                                                    trustnet.com
/ BAILLIE GIFFORD /

the business overall. But that’s not                                                           internet technology in the world.
the point. As Mr Ma explained it’s                 JAMES ANDERSON                              China’s physical infrastructure
a stress test for the future. In about             Investment Manager                          is also modern and often superb.
eight years’ time Alibaba thinks it                James graduated BA in History               Education levels are generally high.
                                                   from Oxford University and after
will be dealing with such volumes                                                              Social solidarity is strong.
                                                   postgraduate study in Italy and
every normal day – around 10-12                    Canada he gained an MA in
                                                                                                  So why would China stop
times current average levels. The                  International Affairs in 1982. He           growing? As I discussed with
logistics systems need to learn                    is a Trustee of the Johns Hopkins           Jack Ma, shouldn’t we instead be
how to cope. Alibaba’s human and                   University. He joined Baillie Gifford       thinking that China has every
machine scientists need to see how                 in 1983 and became a Partner in             chance of being as rich as America
such unparalleled data sets can be                 1987. He headed our European                on a per capita basis? Although this
sorted and interpreted to further                  Equity team until 2003 when he              will take time to come to fruition,
strengthen links to individual                     co-founded our Long Term Global             if 7% annual growth continues for
customers.                                         Growth strategy and has been the            another decade then even Anglo-
  At present the US and China                      Manager and then Joint Manager              American commentators might
                                                   of Scottish Mortgage Investment
compete for global leadership in                                                               have to acknowledge a shifting
                                                   Trust since 2000.
machine learning and artificial                                                                world order. In any case pessimism
intelligence. But it’s likely that in                                                          about world growth would have
the next decade Chinese leadership                                                             proven rather exaggerated.
will become firmly established.                likely to be helpfully symbiotic                   For markets it’s only companies of
As Martin Lau of Tencent (the                  than damagingly exclusive. That’s               the significance and scale of Alibaba,
other Chinese technology giant                 great for us all. In healthcare the             and tectonic shifts in perception
to have added a mere $200 billion              combination of data empowering                  such as China potentially becoming
of market value in 2017) puts it,              personalised medicine, and the                  as rich as America on a per capita
scale is more of an advantage to               collapse in the price and rise                  basis, that are worthy of attention.
China in a data age than it was in             in performance of genomic                       There’s a persistent illusion that
the manufacturing era. And in turn             sequencing, will permit far earlier             the normal is of relevance. It isn’t.
data is the most important factor of           and better diagnosis of health                  It matters not one iota to long-run
production in our new economy.                 problems. Advances in gene therapy              market returns that British GDP
From the delivery of food through              and synthetic biology ought to                  turns out to be a decimal point or
to autonomous driving, this gives              match cures with diagnosis for all              two higher or lower than expected.
brilliant and blindingly ambitious             their societal challenges.                      It’s only of interest to traders,
Chinese entrepreneurs a giant                     But let’s refocus on the specifics of        speculators and investment banks if
canvas to work on.                             Alibaba and the Chinese economy.                quarterly earnings reports exceed or
  There follow wider and beneficial            Alibaba recently celebrated its 18th            disappoint expectations. As recent
consequences. It’s already clear               birthday. Revenue growth was 61%                academic research has confirmed,
that Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu and               in the quarter to September 2017.               most stocks don’t even outperform
a host of their smaller and usually            As the company points out, China’s              bonds over their lifetime. Just
affiliated brethren are expanding              per capita GDP has compounded                   ignore the daily nonsense. Throw
progress in data into early                    at an annual rate of 14% over the               market forecasts in the nearest
explorations of the potential to               last 18 years. This means that the              bin. Investment life is best lived in
improve healthcare and education               average citizen is almost 10 times              the exponential extremes. We’re
after the paralysis of recent decades.         better off than when Alibaba was                lucky to live in an era where
In these contexts parallel efforts             born. With its help, China now                  companies and economies can
in China and America are more                  possesses the most advanced mobile              grow to the sky.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RISK FACTORS
This article is issued by Baillie Gifford & Co Limited and does not in any way constitute investment advice. All information is sourced from
Baillie Gifford & Co and is current unless otherwise stated.
The views expressed in this article should not be considered as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment.
Some of the views expressed are not necessarily those of Baillie Gifford. Investment markets and conditions can change rapidly, therefore
the views expressed should not be taken as statements of fact nor should reliance be placed on them when making investment decisions.
This article contains information on investments which does not constitute independent investment research. Accordingly, it is not subject
to the protections afforded to independent research and Baillie Gifford and its staff may have dealt in the investments concerned. Please
remember that the value of a stock market investment and any income from it can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the
amount invested. The trust invests in overseas securities. Changes in the rates of exchange may also cause the value of your investment
(and any income it may pay) to go down or up. The trust invests in emerging markets where difficulties in dealing, settlement and custody
could arise, resulting in a negative impact on the value of your investment.
The trust’s risk could be increased by its investment in unlisted investments. These assets may be more difficult to buy or sell, so
changes in their prices may be greater.

trustnet.com                                                                                                                             13
YOUR PORTFOLIO

                 FOLLOWING
                  AMAZON
              Anthony Luzio seeks out the most effective way to tap
                          into the e-commerce boom

                                        and shoulders above all others –       One number that isn’t so

W
             ITH TRADITIONAL            Amazon. And the figures speak        impressive is the bottom line.
              HIGH STREET               for themselves: for every dollar     While Amazon has recently begun
              STORES IN LONG-           spent online in the US last year,    to turn a profit, this is mainly
              TERM DECLINE, the         Amazon captured 53 cents. It         down to Amazon Web Services,
natural place for investors to turn     accounted for 4 per cent of total    the company’s cloud-computing
to is online retail. But just because   retail sales and is expected to      unit. It still loses money from its
e-commerce has dealt a fatal blow       bring in $200bn in 2018.             retail operations and it is this,
to many of the shops we grew up           As Janus Henderson’s John          combined with a $650bn market
with, does this automatically           Pattullo put it: “We were at an      cap and P/E of above 200, that
make it a good investment?              Amazon Disruption Day run by         has led some investors to call it
  When it comes to internet             Morgan Stanley recently – we         overvalued.
shopping, one name stands head          went with trepidation and we
                                        came back pretty scared. Even
                                        the thought that Amazon is
                                        going to move into something
                                        like the pharmaceutical sector
                                        causes that sector to sell off and
                                        companies to start consolidating
                                        on the back of it.”

14                                                                                                 trustnet.com
/ E-COMMERCE /

  However Tom Slater of the
Scottish Mortgage Investment               “We were at an Amazon
Trust says investors need to look
at the bigger picture and that with
                                           Disruption Day run by Morgan
companies such as Amazon, it is
about where they will be in five
                                           Stanley recently – we went with
years’ time at the very least.             trepidation and we came back
                                           pretty scared”
  “I think there’s this idea
that Amazon isn’t interested
in making money because it
has persistently low margins,”
he explains. “I see it slightly          “If you go to the biggest day of         value. Like Amazon, he notes it
differently, which is that it takes    Chinese retail, Singles Day, there         continues to reinvest its increasing
the profits from things that           are $25bn of sales on Alibaba’s            free cash-flow into new markets.
are working and invests them           website,” says Slater. “If you got           “Alibaba is still in the early
extremely aggressively in new          every website in the US on Cyber           phase of monetising its customer
areas. I would be astonished if        Monday, they took $6bn.”                   base and increasing engagement
its books business, for example,         While these figures are                  as it continues to increase its
didn’t have extremely attractive       impressive on their own, what is           data management capability and
margins given its global market        truly staggering is that within the        network reach,” he says.
share. It’s just that you never see    next decade Alibaba expects to see           “The diversification of revenue
that, and that’s why looking at        sales on this scale every day and is       streams is creating strong captive
short-term earnings multiples can      currently using the levels seen on         eco-systems, which will continue
be quite dangerous.”                   Singles Day to stress-test its service.    to engage and grow its customer
  He adds that you do not need to        Aside from the growth of                 base further. The high investment
delve too deeply into the numbers      online shopping, Alibaba is also           will pay dividends in the medium
to see the benefits of this strategy   benefiting from the growth of the          to long term as net profits
– Amazon’s revenue growth              Chinese middle class. As Scottish          continue to see steady and healthy
hasn’t fallen below 20 per cent in     Mortgage’s James Anderson notes            absolute growth, which we believe
the past 10 years, and the figure      on page 12, China’s per capita             the market is underappreciating.”
for 2017 stands at 31 per cent         GDP has compounded at an
compared with about 6 per cent         annual rate of 14 per cent over
for the wider market.                  the past 18 years, helping Alibaba
                                       to drive revenue growth of
OPEN SESAME                            61 per cent in the quarter to
To consider just how far Amazon        September 2017.
can go, we need to address the           It is currently on a P/E of
falsehood at the beginning of          just over 40 with a market cap of
this article – that the company        $450bn and Gary Greenberg, head
stands head and shoulders above        of emerging markets at Hermes,
the competition when it comes          believes it has scope to
to online retail. The truth is its     create further
scale is dwarfed by its Chinese
counterpart, Alibaba.

trustnet.com                                                                                                       15
/ E-COMMERCE /

LATE TO THE PARTY
After looking at how far the likes           “It is not just about having
of Alibaba and Amazon have
come already – both have gone up             lorries. Clothing retailers need
more than 10-fold since Slater first
added them to Scottish Mortgage,
                                             the returns sorted, dispatched
for example – some investors who             to a dedicated steam room, re-
                                             hung, bagged and returned”
are wistful of missing out on the
easy money may be tempted to
look for the next big thing instead.
   However Catherine Yeung,
Fidelity’s investment director           BACK HOME                                “We have witnessed significant
in Hong Kong, says this is an            ASOS and Boohoo are the               improvements in online
extremely risky strategy as the          e-commerce leaders in the UK, but     transaction security and growth in
scale of the forerunners means           neither has the scale of Amazon       credit payment options, with firms
they are effectively running an          or Alibaba, although both have        such as Worldpay and Experian
“e-commerce monopoly”.                   similarly weighty P/E ratios.         benefiting from the growth of
   She pointed to what happened             Many fund managers believe a       payments online,” he adds.
with Chinese online retailer             better way to play the theme of          There is no doubt the internet’s
JD.com – which has a market cap          online retail is through investing    stranglehold on retail will tighten
of $60bn – when it tried to expand.      in its “picks and shovels” instead.   over the long term, nor is there
   “One of its spin-offs is called VIP      Nigel Thomas, manager of AXA       much doubt about who the major
Shop whose market share is in the        Framlington Select Opportunities,     players will be. The question
low teens,” she explains. “In June       notes 40 per cent of the products     is whether you think they are
it has its equivalent to Alibaba’s       delivered by ASOS are returned,       worth the sky-high multiples
Singles Day and this quarter is          which has led to the growth of        they command. You can opt for
where it had its highest sales. But      reverse logistics companies.          one of the satellite industries that
Alibaba just came in over the top           “It is not just about having       supports the e-commerce boom,
and there was nothing it could do.”      lorries, vans and distribution        but with a smaller company there
                                         centres. Clothing retailers need      is the risk its business model will
                                         the returns sorted, dispatched to     be disrupted by the next big thing
                                         a dedicated steam room, re-hung       – much like the high street itself.
                                         and bagged, and returned
                                         to the retailer,” he says.
                                         “We invested in Eddie
                                         Stobart Logistics, which
                                         has expanded into this
                                         area, leveraging its
                                         expertise in distribution
                                         centres and ‘middle mile’
                                         haulage.”
                                            Thomas says payment
                                         is another crucial area of
                                         e-commerce.

16                                                                                                   trustnet.com
IN FOCUS

Fund

POLAR CAPITAL UK
ABSOLUTE EQUITY                                                                                 moments – of 5.73 per cent is
                                                                                                higher than the 1.12 per cent
                                                                                                average. However, many absolute
                                                                                                return funds have posted a higher
Guy Rushton’s fund is the best-performer in its sector                                          maximum drawdown in the past
since launch, but it may not be suitable for every                                              three years, with several hit by
                                                                                                double-digit losses.
absolute return investor                                                                          Rushton has put this risk to good

T
                                                                                                use and the fund’s Sharpe ratio – a
        HE POLAR CAPITAL UK              lowest was 7.49 per cent, its                          measure of risk-adjusted returns
        ABSOLUTE EQUITY FUND             performance in 2016.                                   – of 2.08 is by far the highest in
        was launched little over           Of course, the IA Targeted                           the peer group. JPM Global Macro
three years ago but has generated        Absolute Return sector is a mixed                      Opportunities in second place has
what is by far the highest total         bag of funds with aims ranging                         a score of 0.86.
return of the IA Targeted Absolute       from extreme capital preservation                        The fund was awarded the
Return sector over this time.            through to aggressive bets against                     highest score of five FE Crowns
  Between launch on 29                   equities. The Polar Capital fund                       when it first became eligible for
September 2014 and the end of            has surged to the top of the                           the award in January, as a result
January 2018, Guy Rushton’s              performance table because of its                       of its superior performance in
£502.8m fund made 115.2 per              focus on equities, which offer the                     terms of stockpicking, consistency
cent, compared with just 8.83 per        potential for high returns but with                    and risk control.
cent from the sector average and         correspondingly high levels of risk.                     Charles Younes, research
39.10 per cent from the fund in            For example, the fund’s                              manager at FE, said: “The long/
second place, JPM Global Macro           annualised volatility since launch                     short equity Polar Capital fund
Opportunities.                           is 10.75 per cent, the fifth-highest                   returned a positive performance
  Polar Capital UK Absolute Equity       score in the sector, where the                         of 47.51 per cent last year with its
aims to deliver positive absolute        average stands at just 1.75 per                        stockpicking and long exposure to
returns over 12-month periods by         cent. Likewise, its maximum                            materials, IT and financials paying
investing on a long/short basis,         drawdown – the amount investors                        off. But this is a highly volatile
mainly in UK equities, although it can   would have lost if they bought                         strategy, which does not suit every
take a small exposure to European        and sold at the worst possible                         investor profile.”
and global equities as well.
  Data from FE Analytics shows
the fund has succeeded in its
12-month positive absolute return                PERFORMANCE OF FUND VS SECTOR SINCE LAUNCH
target on a rolling basis in every
                                         120%                   Polar Capital UK Absolute Equity (115.2%)
one of the 29 months of relevant
track record. Its highest 12-month                              IA Targeted Absolute Return (8.83%)
                                         100%
return stands at 47.51 per cent,
which it achieved in 2017; the           80%

                                         60%
FILE
                                         40%
 MANAGER: Guy Rushton
 LAUNCHED: 29/09/2014                    20%
 FUND SIZE: £502.8m
                                          0%
 OCF: 1.15% (plus 20%
 performance fee)                        -20%
 FE CROWN RATING:
                                               4

                                               5

                                                              r

                                                                        l

                                                                              t

                                                                                      6

                                                                                            r

                                                                                                  l

                                                                                                         t

                                                                                                                 7

                                                                                                                       r

                                                                                                                             l

                                                                                                                                   t

                                                                                                                                       8
                                                                      Ju

                                                                                                Ju

                                                                                                                           Ju
                                                                            Oc

                                                                                                       Oc

                                                                                                                                 Oc
                                                            Ap

                                                                                          Ap

                                                                                                                     Ap
                                             t1

                                            n1

                                                                                    n1

                                                                                                               n1

                                                                                                                                     n1
                                          Oc

                                          Ja

                                                                                  Ja

                                                                                                             Ja

                                                                                                                                   Ja

                                         Source: FE Analytics

18                                                                                                                          trustnet.com
/ FUND, PENSION, TRUST /

Pension

F&C RESPONSIBLE
INCOME                                                                                     More recently, given the ongoing
                                                                                        uncertainty surrounding Brexit
                                                                                        and the impact of weaker sterling
                                                                                        on domestic consumer spending,
Despite being limited in the type of stocks this fund can                               Stanley has favoured UK stocks
hold, it has still outperformed its sector in the short term                            with strong balance sheets and
                                                                                        attractive dividends.

E
                                                                                           Despite the fund’s ethical
       THICAL FUNDS HAVE               cent from the average IA UK Equity               focus, a number of well-known
       A REPUTATION FOR                Income fund and enough to put it in              income generators can be found
       UNDERPERFORMING THEIR           the top-quartile of its sector.                  among its top holdings, such as
MORE CONVENTIONAL PEERS as                The fund opened for business in               banks HSBC and Lloyds, insurers
they have a smaller universe of        1987. It invests in UK companies                 Legal & General and Prudential,
screened stocks to choose from.        whose products and operations                    pharmaceutical GlaxoSmithKline,
As such, ethical funds account for     “are considered to be of long-term               consumer goods company
just £15bn of the total £1.2trn of     benefit to the community at home                 Unilever, mobile phone operator
industry funds under management,       and abroad”.                                     Vodafone and miner BHP Billiton.
or around 1.3 per cent.                   The asset manager noted that                     F&C Responsible Income’s
  However, there are a number of       such companies will generally                    largest sector weighting is to
UK-focused strategies that have        exclude those “considered to be                  financials, which represent 29.4
been able to outperform their          involved with harmful products and               per cent of the portfolio; followed
peers and the FTSE All Share index     practices or trading extensively                 by industrials (11.9 per cent);
despite these restraints.              with oppressive regimes”.                        telecommunications, media &
  One such fund is F&C                    While this limits the type of stocks          technology (10.7 per cent); and,
Responsible Income, formerly           it can hold, avoiding companies                  services (10.5 per cent).
known as F&C Stewardship               that focus on short-term gains at                   The fund can also hold ethically
Income, which offers exposure          all costs helps to keep risk under               screened corporate bonds to help it
to UK equity income with a more        control and the fund is a top-                   meet its income target.
ethical focus.                         quartile performer over three years                 It is currently yielding 3.9 per
  BMO Global Asset Management’s        in terms of suppressing maximum                  cent, which is lower than the 4.12
ethical investing specialist           drawdown and volatility.                         per cent of the sector average. 
Catherine Stanley has headed
up the £330m fund since 2009.
She also runs its £418.4m sister
fund, F&C Responsible UK Equity          PERFORMANCE OF FUND VS SECTOR AND INDEX OVER 3YRS
Growth.
                                       40%                IA UK Equity Income (21.59%)
  F&C Responsible Income has
                                                          F&C Responsible UK Income (25.21%)
made 25.21 per cent over the past      30%
                                                          FTSE All Share (25.85%)
three years, slightly below the FTSE
All Share index’s gain of 25.85 per    20%
cent, but ahead of the 21.59 per
                                       10%
FILE
                                        0%
 MANAGER: Catherine Stanley
 LAUNCHED: 13/10/1987                  -10%
 FUND SIZE: £330m
 OCF: 0.81%                            -20%
 FE CROWN RATING:
                                            5

                                            r
                                           n

                                                                  g

                                                                   t
                                                                   c

                                                                   6

                                                                   r
                                                                  n

                                                                  g

                                                                                               t
                                                                                               c

                                                                                               7

                                                                                               r
                                                                                              n

                                                                                              g

                                                                                               t
                                                                                               c
                                                                 Oc

                                                                                             Oc

                                                                                             Oc
                                         Ap

                                                                Ap

                                                                                            Ap
                                                                De

                                                                                            De

                                                                                            De
                                         b1

                                                                b1

                                                                                            b1
                                                                Au

                                                                Au

                                                                                            Au
                                         Ju

                                                                Ju

                                                                                            Ju
                                       Fe

                                                              Fe

                                                                                          Fe

                                       Source: FE Analytics

trustnet.com                                                                                                            19
/ FUND, PENSION, TRUST /

Trust

CAPITAL GEARING TRUST
Peter Spiller’s trust would add some stability to a portfolio with a high equity exposure

W
            ITH CENTRAL BANKS          market rallies, we believe it is an                  cent from the FTSE All Share and
            AROUND THE WORLD           attractive vehicle for investors                     a volatility score of 13.75 per cent.
            expected to ratchet up     looking for low-volatility long-                       It performed particularly well in
the speed of interest-rate hikes       term capital growth.”                                2008 and 2011 when markets fell,
this year, the bond market looks         The trust’s main aim is to                         making top-quartile returns.
like a poor choice for anyone          preserve capital over the short-                       However, it is a bottom-quartile
looking to shelter their cash          term and generate strong risk-                       performer over one, three and five
from market volatility. However,       adjusted returns over the long-                      years, failing to participate in as
Peter Spiller of the Capital           term. As well as index-linked                        much of the equity market upside,
Gearing Trust is turning to index-     bonds, it is 40 per cent weighted                    and was hit particularly hard in
linked government bonds – which        to funds/equities, further                           2013 around the time of the taper
currently account for 37 per cent      diversified through underlying                       tantrum.
of the portfolio’s assets – in a bid   exposure to property, equities,                        It may be worth pairing the
to maintain his solid track record     private equity/hedge funds, loans                    investment company with other,
of preserving investors’ capital.      and infrastructure.                                  more out-and-out growth-
   Index-linked government bonds         It has an impressive record of                     orientated equity strategies
will protect against a rise in         delivering solid absolute returns                    – though weightings will vary
inflation, something Spiller – along   with considerably lower volatility                   depending on investor risk
with co-managers Alastair Laing        than that of the equity market.                      tolerance.
and Chris Clothier – believes is         For example, it has returned                         The trust’s shares are at a 2 per
likely to persist with global debt     105.94 per cent over the past                        cent premium, according to data
levels “unsustainably high”.           10 years, with an annualised                         from the Association of Investment
   “Their view is that this can        volatility of 8.92 per cent,                         Companies (AIC). It has ongoing
only be remedied by a sustained        compared with a gain of 98.08 per                    charges of 0.86 per cent.
period of inflation and he points to
signs of rising wage growth in the
US as evidence that inflationary
pressures are building,” said                    PERFORMANCE OF TRUST VS INDEX OVER 10YRS
Kieran Drake, analyst at
                                       120%               Capital Gearing Trust (105.94%)
Winterflood Investment Trusts.
   “While the significant allocation   100%               FTSE All Share (98.08%)
to bonds will mean that the            80%
fund is likely to lag strong equity
                                       60%
FILE                                   40%
 MANAGERS: Peter Spiller, Alastair     20%
 Laing & Chris Clothier
 LAUNCHED: 1963                         0%
 PREMIUM/DISCOUNT: +2%                 -20%
 OCF: 0.86%                            -40%
 FE CROWN RATING:
                                           8

                                                     9

                                                                  0

                                                                          1

                                                                                   2

                                                                                           3

                                                                                                   4

                                                                                                           5

                                                                                                                   6

                                                                                                                           7
                                         b0

                                                   b0

                                                                b1

                                                                        b1

                                                                                 b1

                                                                                         b1

                                                                                                 b1

                                                                                                         b1

                                                                                                                 b1

                                                                                                                         b1
                                       Fe

                                                 Fe

                                                              Fe

                                                                      Fe

                                                                               Fe

                                                                                       Fe

                                                                                               Fe

                                                                                                       Fe

                                                                                                               Fe

                                                                                                                       Fe

                                       Source: FE Analytics

20                                                                                                                     trustnet.com
IN FOCUS

             MISSED
            THE BOAT?
Anyone who thinks Brexit worries have created a value opportunity in
     UK small caps may be a year too late, warns Adam Lewis

     I
              NVESTORS IN UK           the time to buy UK small caps and       “Before we go any further, it is
              SMALLER                  that the sector could be due a bout   clear an allocation to UK small
              COMPANY                  of volatility in the short-term.      caps makes sense for any long-
              INVESTMENT                 “Mid and small caps, more           term investor,” Paget continues.
              TRUSTS enjoyed a         generally, witnessed a degree of      “In fact, we would argue they
bumper 12 months last year, as the     mean reversion following painful,     should form a core allocation
sector continued its recovery from     Brexit-induced declines in 2016       within a long-term portfolio.”
the shock of Brexit in 2016.           while many active managers              “However, over the shorter term,
  Having made a meagre return of       in the space boosted returns by       we see a variety of risks, which
3.98 per cent in 2016, the average     shifting their portfolios towards     in the context of narrower than
IT Smaller Companies trust posted      more internationally exposed          average discounts, could dampen
gains of 27.62 per cent last year as   stocks,” says Paget.                  appetite for small caps. For
UK domestic stocks rallied.                                                  example, rightly or wrongly, mid
  As a result, the sector re-rated     A MISSED OPPORTUNITY
heavily, with the average discount     He points to the narrowing
narrowing from 14 per cent at          of discounts over the last 12
the start of 2017 to its current       months as evidence of what may
figure of 9 per cent. Alex Paget,      have been a missed opportunity,
a research analyst at Kepler           with the current figure standing
Partners, says that with the benefit   below the five-year average of
of hindsight, early last year was      about 11 per cent.

22                                                                                                 trustnet.com
/ SECTOR PROFILE /

and small caps are likely to be the                            PERFORMANCE OF IA AND IT SECTORS
worst hit if there are any hiccups in
the ongoing Brexit negotiations.”                                         1yr (%)      3yr (%)   5yr (%)   10yr (%)

                                          IA UK Smaller Companies          24.79       58.92      104.23    205.43
GROWING COMPLACENT
More generally, however, Paget            IT UK Smaller Companies          24.6        67.05      117.7     244.57
says there is clearly a growing
sense of complacency among              Source: FE Analytics

investors and this, combined
with high multiples across the
market, leaves equities open to a         Innes Urquhart, a research                doesn’t force managers to buy
correction if there is any change to    analyst at Winterflood, says                and sell shares based on inflows
the status quo.                         another reason why UK Smaller               and outflows, works particularly
   “Smaller companies, with their       Companies trusts trade on wider             well for UK smaller companies, in
higher-beta characteristics, would      discounts is because of the                 particular at the micro cap level.
likely be hit hard in such an           element of illiquidity in their               This contention is backed up
event,” he says.                        assets. In this sense he says the           by the figures. The average fund
   Despite a significant re-rating in   investment trust structure, which           in the IA UK Smaller Companies
2017, the average IT UK Smaller                                                     sector made 24.79 per cent last
Companies discount remains                                                          year, marginally ahead of its
wider than the average for the
investment trust universe – 3.3
per cent at the end of 2017,
compared with 5.1 per cent 12
months earlier.
   To put 2017’s figure in historical
context, the long-run average
discount for the investment
trust universe since the end of
1989 stands at 9.4 per cent. As
such, Winterflood also warns
that with 2018 marking the 10th
anniversary of the global financial
crisis, and with the bull market
now entering its ninth year, there
is reason to believe discounts
could widen again in the not-too-
distant future.

trustnet.com                                                                                                         23
/ SECTOR PROFILE /

IT counterpart. Over longer                    PERFORMANCE OF TRUSTS VS INDEX OVER 10YRS
time periods, however, this
performance gap reverses, and          500%             BlackRock Smaller Companies IT (423.86%)
does so significantly. The average
open-ended small cap fund has          400%             Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust (487.15%)
made 58.92 per cent, 104.23 per
                                       300%
cent and 205.43 per cent over                           FTSE All Share (98.08%)
three, five and 10 years, compared     200%
with 67.05 per cent, 117.7 per
cent and 244.57 per cent from its      100%
closed-ended counterpart.
                                         0%
THE STOMACH FOR IT
                                       -100%
“For those who can stomach
volatility and are willing to
                                            8

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focus on the long-term, we think
Aberforth Smaller Companies
is an interesting proposition at
this stage,” says Paget. “It is the        There is clearly a growing sense
                                           of complacency among investors
most value-orientated member of
either the open- or closed-ended

                                           and this leaves equities open to a
sectors and is managed by a highly
experienced and well-resourced
team with a strong track record.”
   “However, thanks to this                correction
value style (and though it has
outperformed its benchmark), it        (whether that be from an absolute               Winterflood added The
has struggled to keep pace with        or relative perspective) following            Mercantile Investment Trust to
many of its peers over the past five   a long period in the doldrums                 its mid and small cap exposure in
years (and in 2017 in particular).     and, in such an environment,                  the 2018 rebalancing of its model
We think value investing is            Aberforth should be a prime                   portfolio, replacing the River &
due a long-term return to form         beneficiary.”                                 Mercantile UK Micro Cap trust.

24                                                                                                                   trustnet.com
/ SECTOR PROFILE /

  “We have switched to               The best performer
Mercantile Investment Trust,
which we believe offers a better
                                     RIVER & MERCANTILE UK MICRO CAP
value opportunity on its current     River & Mercantile UK Micro Cap is the best performer in the IT UK Smaller
discount of 9 per cent,” says        Companies sector over the last 12 months with a share price return of 63.83
Urquhart. While this discount        per cent. It is also the second best performer in the sector over three years with
has narrowed considerably over       gains of 115.9 per cent, which helps to explain why it moved from a 9 per cent
the last year, he adds that it has   discount to a 16.2 per cent premium in the 12 months to the start of February.
an active buyback policy which       The trust invests in UK companies with market capitalisations of less than
has seen 6.3 million shares, or      £100m, which according to Winterflood makes it ideally suited to the investment
7 per cent of its share capital      trust structure. At the time of going to press, River & Mercantile has just
                                     announced George Ensor will be taking over from manager Philip Rodrigs after
worth £117m, bought back since       the latter left the business following a professional conduct issue.
the start of 2017.
  “Consequently we believe that
downside discount volatility is
relatively limited, which in our     The discount play
opinion, is important at a time      THE MERCANTILE INVESTMENT TRUST
of historically tight discounts
across the sector.”                  Unlike its ultra small-cap cousin, The Mercantile Investment Trust, run by JP
  Winterflood also holds Mike        Morgan Asset Management, targets UK mid and small caps. Its assets of £2.2bn
Prentis’s BlackRock Smaller          mean it is currently the largest of those trusts investing predominately in the UK
Companies trust, the discount        market. Although it sits in the IT All Companies sector, Winterflood added it to the
of which has also narrowed.          small cap part of its model portfolio at the start of the year. The trust struggled
                                     during the second half of 2016 due to an overweight position in UK consumers
However, at 14.8 per cent, he        and underweight position in energy and resources at the time of Brexit, but it is
says it remains wider than its       still ranked first quartile over one and three years.
five-year average, and wider than
the average figure for the sector.
  “There are a number of             The long-termer
strong trusts to choose from         STANDARD LIFE UK SMALLER COMPANIES
in the sector,” Urquhart says.
“We rate Henderson Smaller           While much attention has been focused on the short-term performance of UK
Companies, which has a great         small caps, the product with the best 10-year track record is Harry Nimmo’s
long-term track record and           Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust. The trust is up 487.15 per cent over
trades at a double-digit discount.   this time, compared with 423.86 per cent from the second-best performer –
We also like the Standard Life       BlackRock UK Smaller Companies. Nimmo uses Standard Life’s Matrix as part of
                                     his investment process: a quant-based screening system that highlights high-
UK Smaller Companies Trust,          quality businesses with a competitive advantage which should lead to consistent
although it has moved out to a       and sustainable earnings growth. He is also known for running his winners:
small premium.”                     holding companies through their maturation for as long as he sees value.

26                                                                                                       trustnet.com
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