FIXED NETWORK DATA TRAFFIC: WORLDWIDE TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2016-2021 - analysysmason.com
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Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021
RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT
FIXED NETWORK DATA TRAFFIC: WORLDWIDE TRENDS AND
FORECASTS 2016–2021
RUPERT WOOD
analysysmason.com
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016
Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021
About this report
This report analyses fixed data traffic trends worldwide, and draws GEOGR APH IC AL COVER AG E KEY METR ICS
out implications for fixed and mobile operators, as well as content
players. 8 regions worldwide: Overall national and per
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE): broadband (BB) subscriber data,
It is based on several sources, including: Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey year total and year end
Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP): Internet, managed IP, multicast
Analysys Mason’s internal research, including broadband and Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, South data
next-generation access (NGA) forecasts, 4K forecasts, wireless Korea
NGA and non-NGA split
traffic forecasts, Connected Consumer survey Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP):
China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia Median usage
operator and regulator data Latin America (LATAM): Brazil Fixed—mobile traffic ratios
ongoing engagement with stakeholders in the fixed telecoms Middle East and North Africa Asymmetry ratios
(MENA) Internet bandwidth per
sector.
North America (NA): USA subscriber, average and busy
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): South hour
WHO SHOULD R EAD T HIS R EPOR T Africa Global split by device (TV, mobile
CTO and strategy teams in fixed network operators (FNOs) Western Europe (WE): France, device, PC, other)
This report will help them to understand how to tie their NGA conversion (and hence Germany, Italy, Nordic countries,
ARPU uplifts) to changes in usage demand, and in emerging markets, to understand Spain, UK
how soon patterns of consumption could encourage fixed broadband (FBB) take-up.
CTO and strategy teams in MNOs
The ability to substitute fixed (to gain greater share of wallet) is at the core of mobile
revenue growth. MNOs urgently need a holistic fixed—mobile view of data consumption
in order to plan for mobile and/or new fixed network investment.
CTO and strategy teams in Content / TV businesses
Rapid shifts to non-linear viewing present uncertainty for the continued use of RF (on
unidirectional broadcast networks). More rational use of network options is possible,
and spectrum used for RF could be of greater use to MNOs, for example.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016 2
Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Contents [1]
7. Worldwide trends 19. Central and Eastern Europe
8. Worldwide: Broadcast substitution, 4K and new emerging economy fibre 20. Central and Eastern Europe: Strong FMC effects in EU states will be offset
investment are driving fixed traffic growth by slower growth in Russia
9. Worldwide: Emerging markets will contribute 46% of Internet traffic by 21. Central and Eastern Europe: Peer-to-peer still affects the shape of traffic
2021 growth
10. Worldwide: Increasing availability of affordable fixed broadband in emerging 22. Middle East and North Africa
markets is triggering key changes in Internet usage
23. Middle East and North Africa: Where fibre is in place, usage is high, but
11. Worldwide: Fixed broadband data growth is approaching that of mobile; limited investment elsewhere holds traffic back
mobile networks’ share of data traffic will plateau
24. Middle East and North Africa: Lack of disclosure of usage may tells its own
12. Worldwide: NGA usage levels already demonstrate very strong cord-cutting story
tendencies
25. Sub-Saharan Africa
13. Worldwide: Larger screens – not mobile devices – are now the largest
26. Sub-Saharan Africa: Fixed broadband plays only a minor role in the SSA
drivers of traffic growth
telecoms landscape
14. Worldwide: Virtual reality should accelerate data usage, particularly on
27. Emerging Asia–Pacific
home connections
28. Emerging Asia–Pacific: Chinese usage dominates the regional totals
15. Worldwide: Busy-hour share, asymmetry ratios, and mean:median ratios all
show slow, long-term trends 29. Emerging Asia–Pacific: China and Malaysia’s markets already resemble
developed economies in terms of take-up and usage
16. Western Europe
30. Developed Asia–Pacific
17. Western Europe: Services, not networks, drive traffic growth
31. Developed Asia–Pacific: Fixed data traffic growth will overtake that of
18. Western Europe: Southern Europe has not yet had the surge in usage
mobile
experienced in Northern Europe
32. Developed Asia–Pacific: Large screens and 4K will stimulate growth in
traffic
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016 3Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Contents [2]
33. North America
34. North America: While underlying demand for online video is strong, growth
will be inhibited by cableco bundling strategies
35. Latin America
36. Latin America: The strength of growth is related to FTTP investment, which
is patchy in the region
37. Forecast methodology and assumptions
38. This report measures and forecasts IP data generated by fixed broadband
connections
39. The report covers three broad classes of data traffic: Internet, managed IP
and multicast IPTV
40. The methodology focuses on shifts in video consumption and technologies
41. About the authors and Analysys Mason
42. About the authors
43. About Analysys Mason
44. Research from Analysys Mason
45. Consulting from Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016 4Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021
List of figures [1]
Figure 1: Total global fixed IP traffic, by type, 2015–2021 Figure 15: Average Internet usage per FBB connection, selected Western
Europe markets, year-end 2015
Figure 2: Total fixed Internet traffic, by worldwide region, 2015– 2021
Figure 16: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband
Figure 3: GDP per capita, gigabytes per capita and relative mobile share of connection, Western Europe, 2014–2021
traffic, selected markets, December 2015
Figure 17: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, Central and Eastern Europe,
Figure 4: Fixed and mobile Internet data growth, and mobile share of total, 2014–2021
Japan, 2H 2010–2H 2015
Figure 18: Total IP data traffic, by type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–
Figure 5: Mobile share of Internet traffic, selected regions, 2015–2021 2021
Figure 6: Average monthly data traffic per NGA connection (including non- Figure 19: Average Internet usage per FBB connection, selected Central and
Internet), selected operators, year-end 2015 Eastern European markets, year-end 2015
Figure 20: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband
Figure 7: Average blended, NGA and non-NGA Internet traffic per connection,
connection, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2021
worldwide, 2015–2021
Figure 21: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, Middle East and North Africa,
Figure 8: iPlayer share of TV content requests by device (excluding unknowns) 2014–2021
Figure 9: Device share of overall IP traffic, including mobile network traffic, Figure 22: Total IP data traffic, by type, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–
worldwide, 2014–2021 2021
Figure 10: Busy and average hour bandwidths per connection, busy/average Figure 23: Average Internet usage per FBB connection, selected Middle East
ratios, USA and Western Europe, 2015–2021 and North African markets, year-end 2015
Figure 11: Upstream share of Internet traffic, developed regions and worldwide, Figure 24: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband
2015–2021 connection, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2021
Figure 12: Mean and median usage per connection, Western Europe, 2015– Figure 25: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–
2021 2021
Figure 26: Total IP data traffic, by type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2021
Figure 13: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, Western Europe, 2014–2021
Figure 27: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband
Figure 14: Total IP data traffic, by type, Western Europe, 2014–2021 connection, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2021
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016 5Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021
List of figures [2]
Figure 28: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014– Figure 42: Scope of this forecast
2021
Figure 43: Simplified diagram of three classes of fixed IP data traffic
Figure 29: Total IP data traffic, by type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2021 Figure 44: Fixed data traffic forecast methodology
Figure 30: Average Internet usage per FBB connection, selected emerging Asia–
Pacific markets, year-end 2015
Figure 31: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband
connection, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2021
Figure 32: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–
2021
Figure 33: Total IP data traffic, by type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2021
Figure 34: Average Internet usage per FBB connection, selected developed
Asia–Pacific markets, year-end 2015
Figure 35: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband
connection, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2021
Figure 36: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, North America, 2014–2021
Figure 37: Total IP data traffic, by type, North America, 2014—2021
Figure 38: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband
connection, North America, 2014–2021
Figure 39: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, Latin America, 2014–2021
Figure 40: Total IP data traffic, by type, Latin America, 2014–2021
Figure 41: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband
connection, Latin America, 2014–2021
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016 6Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Worldwide: Fixed broadband data growth is approaching that
of mobile; mobile networks’ share of data traffic will plateau
Normal growth in average usage on an already-installed base of Figure 4: Fixed and mobile Internet data growth, and mobile share of total, Japan,
devices is about 30—35% per annum. Supernormal patterns of 2H 2010–2H 2015
growth are often achieved through the introduction of new classes 140% 20%
120%
of devices. In developed markets, the smartphone boom is nearly 15%
Mobile share of
Internet traffic
100%
Annual RoG
over, and in the absence of compelling new classes of mobile 80%
10%
devices, the rate of mobile traffic growth is returning to normal. 60%
From a volume perspective, the most significant new consumer 40% 5%
20%
devices to date are connected TVs. This means that some of the
0% 0%
strong growth rates are shifting to fixed networks. Looking ahead,
2H 2010
1H 2011
2H 2011
1H 2012
2H 2012
1H 2013
2H 2013
1H 2014
2H 2014
1H 2015
2H 2015
NGA networks have the capacity to support new indoor services at
very low additional cost.
Mobile share Fixed RoG Mobile RoG
In developed economies, mobile networks’ share of overall data
Sources: MIC, Analysys Mason
traffic will stabilise and will start to decline (at least for the period
prior to any major mass market 5G mobile roll-out). Interestingly, Figure 5: Mobile share of Internet traffic, selected regions, 2015–2021
this is already evident in Japan (see Figure 4). In general, 4G has
25% World
proven largely unable to provide a viable alternative to NGA. Fixed
Mobile share of Internet traffic
broadband usage is setting ever-higher benchmarks for new
20% Developed economies
competitive 5G-based home broadband services, which will
appear before mobile 5G. Even in some emerging markets, the 15%
trends are shifting from mobile to fixed. For example, we estimate China
that fixed data traffic in Brazil is growing significantly faster than 10%
mobile. Emerging economies
5%
Much of the early interest in 5G is in its use as a fixed wireless
Emerging economies
access technology. As and when fixed traffic growth overtakes 0% (excluding China)
mobile, this interest will be reinforced. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016 11Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Worldwide: Larger screens – not mobile devices – are now
the largest drivers of traffic growth
In last year’s forecast, we thought that traffic to mobile devices Figure 8: iPlayer share of TV content requests by device (excluding unknowns)
over broadband/Wi-Fi would continue to grow as a share of fixed 45%
traffic. However, this assumption may not hold. Evidence points to 40%
Share of requests
a phenomenon we now suspect (but cannot easily prove) that it is 35% Smartphones
30%
TV sets, and not mobile devices on Wi-Fi, that are driving most of 25% Tablets
the growth in fixed traffic. Usage in many markets is now far too 20%
high for it to be credible that mobile devices, with smaller screens 15% PCs
and lower-spec codecs, account for much of the growth. 10% TVs
5%
For example, BBC iPlayer stats for TV content showed in 2014 a 0%
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
steady growth in the proportion of requests coming from mobile
devices (tablets and smartphones).1 However, in 2015 this trend
reversed, with the proportion of requests on TV sets (including via Sources: BBC, Analysys Mason
intermediary devices such as set-top boxes and games consoles) Figure 9: Device share of overall IP traffic, including mobile network traffic, worldwide,
starting to rise. Any request trend towards larger screens 2014–2021
accelerates traffic growth, not only because they require the 100% 6.0%
Device share of overall IP traffic
Mobile device
highest bitrates, but because we assume that there is a
80%
Mobile network share
correlation between large screens and long sessions. Netflix 4.5%
PC and other
reported in February 2016 that mobile devices accounted for only 60%
10% of its outbound traffic. Netflix Internet traffic in the USA is 3.0%
about 5—6 times greater than that of all US mobile operators 40% TVs
combined. 20%
1.5%
Mobile network
Analysys Mason forecasts that 4K TVs will account for 60% of TV share Internet
0% 0.0%
sales by 2021, by which time household penetration of 4K TVs will
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
have reached 26%.2
Source: Analysys Mason
1 iPlayer does not distinguish between fixed and mobile networks, but one can estimate with a 2 See Analysys Mason’s 4K (Ultra HD) TV sets will be in 26% of TV households worldwide by 2021:
degree of certainty that around 80% of smartphone traffic and over 90% of tablet traffic is fixed. this presents a revenue opportunity.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016 13Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021
CONTENTS
WORLDWIDE TRENDS
REGIONAL TRENDS
WESTERN EUROPE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
EMERGING ASIA–PACIFIC
DEVELOPED ASIA–PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016 41Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021
About the author
Rupert Wood (Research Director) is the lead analyst for our Fixed Networks, Wireless Networks and Convergence Strategies research
programmes. His research focuses on the economics of next-generation networks and of convergence, and leads Analysys Mason’s traffic
forecasting. Rupert regularly participates at industry conferences, and contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms
subjects. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016 42Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021
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