F-15 Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System
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UNCLASSIFIED
RCS: DD-A&T(Q&A)823-485
Increment 1 Only
F-15 Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System (F-15
EPAWSS)
As of FY 2021 President's Budget
Defense Acquisition Management
Information Retrieval
(DAMIR)
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Table of Contents
Common Acronyms and Abbreviations for MDAP Programs 3
Program Information 5
Responsible Office 5
References 6
Mission and Description 7
Executive Summary 7
Threshold Breaches 9
Schedule 10
Performance 12
Track to Budget 13
Cost and Funding 13
Charts 22
Risks 24
Low Rate Initial Production 26
Foreign Military Sales 27
Nuclear Costs 28
Unit Cost 29
Cost Variance 32
Contracts 35
Deliveries and Expenditures 36
Operating and Support Cost 37
UNCLASSIFIED 2
UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPA WSS December 2019 SAR
Common Acronyms and Abbreviations for MDAP Programs
Acq O&M - Acquisition-Related Operations and Maintenance
ACAT - Acquisition Category
ADM - Acquisition Decision Memorandum
APB - Acquisition Program Baseline
APPN - Appropriation
APUC - Average Procurement Unit Cost
$B - Billions of Dollars
BA - Budget Authority/Budget Activity
Blk - Block
BY - Base Year
CAPE - Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation
CARD - Cost Analysis Requirements Description
CDD - Capability Development Document
CLIN - Contract Line Item Number
CPD - Capability Production Document
CY - Calendar Year
DAB - Defense Acquisition Board
DAE - Defense Acquisition Executive
DAMIR - Defense Acquisition Management Information Retrieval
DoD - Department of Defense
DSN - Defense Switched Network
EMD - Engineering and Manufacturing Development
EVM - Earned Value Management
FOC - Full Operational Capability
FMS - Foreign Military Sales
FRP - Full Rate Production
FY - Fiscal Year
FYDP - Future Years Defense Program
ICE - Independent Cost Estimate
IOC - Initial Operational Capability
Inc - Increment
JROC - Joint Requirements Oversight Council
$K - Thousands of Dollars
KPP - Key Performance Parameter
LRIP - Low Rate Initial Production
$M - Millions of Dollars
MDA - Milestone Decision Authority
MDAP - Major Defense Acquisition Program
MILCON - Military Construction
N/A - Not Applicable
O&M - Operations and Maintenance
ORD - Operational Requirements Document
OSD - Office of the Secretary of Defense
O&S - Operating and Support
PAUC - Program Acquisition Unit Cost
UNCLASSIFIED 3
UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
PB - President's Budget
PE - Program Element
PEO - Program Executive Officer
PM - Program Manager
POE - Program Office Estimate
RDT&E - Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation
SAR - Selected Acquisition Report
SCP - Service Cost Position
TBD - To Be Determined
TY - Then Year
UCR - Unit Cost Reporting
U.S. - United States
USD(AT&L) - Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology and Logistics)
USD(A&S) - Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition and Sustainment)
UNCLASSIFIED 4
UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Program Information
Program Name
F-15 Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System (F-15 EPAWSS)
DoD Component
Air Force
Responsible Office
Col Jesse F. Warren Phone: 478-926-2901
235 Byron Street Fax: 478-926-3996
Suite 19A
DSN Phone: 468-2901
Robins AFB, GA 31098
DSN Fax:
Date Assigned: June 28, 2019
jesse.warren@us.af.mil
UNCLASSIFIED 5
UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
References
SAR Baseline (Development Estimate)
Component Acquisition Executive (CAE) Approved Acquisition Program Baseline (APB) dated November 2 2016
Approved APB
Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (Acquisition) (ASAF(AQ)) Approved Acquisition Program Baseline (APB) dated January
30, 2020
UNCLASSIFIED 6
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F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Mission and Description
The F-15 is the most versatile fighter in the world today. A mainstay in both air to air and air to ground operations domestic
and abroad. Upgrades to the F-15 are critical to maintaining its viability past 2040. The proliferation of fourth generation
enemy aircraft, sophisticated "double-digit" anti-aircraft missile systems and other enemy systems pose a significant threat
to F-15 survivability. The F-15 Eagle Passive Active Warning and Survivability System (EPAWSS) program replaces the
existing functionally obsolete F-15 self-protection system. F-15 EPAWSS is an electronic warfare system which includes
electronic detection and identification, internal countermeasures, associated antennas, and countermeasures dispensing.
The EPAWSS upgrade will significantly improve the F-15's capability to autonomously and automatically detect, identify and
locate Radio Frequency (RF) threats as well as provide the ability to deny, degrade, deceive, disrupt and defeat radio
frequency and electro-optical / infrared threat systems within highly contested environments.
Executive Summary
Program Highlights Since Last Report
F-15 Eagle Passive / Active Warning and Survivability System (EPAWSS) is an ACAT IC program entering the formal
acquisition reporting process at the EMD phase. The MDA authorized entry into EMD on November 2, 2016.
The program's last SAR identified a Significant Nunn-McCurdy PAUC breach due in part to the removal of F-15C costs /
quantities. It also reported that electronic warfare hardware and test jet modifications were pacing the program. Although
both areas showed improvement during this reporting period, previous delays had a compounding negative effect on parallel
test and integration activities and drove a significant schedule extension (+39 months) and cost overrun (+$250M to
+$300M). This drove APB schedule breaches for Initial Operational Test & Evaluation Start, FRP Decision, and F-15E and
F-15C Required Assets Available. As a result, the program updated its APB to account for F-15EX EPAWSS kit costs and
quantities to reflect the current force structure plan, and re-baselined APB schedule events. From an electronic warfare
hardware perspective, the program made significant progress by completing priority design verification and system
hardware characterization testing as well as producing 16 of 20 required shipsets. From a test jet modification perspective,
three of the six test jets inducted into the modification line to date are now complete. The sixth test jet is on-track to be the
first to finish the modification on schedule. The final two EPAWSS test jet modification inductions will occur later in FY
2020. With electronic warfare hardware and test aircraft more readily available, the program is ramping up flight and
hardware-in-the-loop testing in preparation for a tailored Milestone C decision in October 2020.
There are no significant software related issues with this program at this time.
UNCLASSIFIED 7
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F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
History of Significant Developments Since Program Initiation
History of Significant Developments Since Program Initiation
:---_ic-, Significant Development Description
August 2015 DAE approved Milestone A authorizing entry into the Technology Maturation and Risk Reduction
Phase, release of the Request for Proposal for EMD, and delegated the program to the Air Force.
September 2015 Technology Maturation and Risk Reduction contract award.
July 2016 Preliminary Design Reviews completed.
November 2016 MDA approves Milestone B.
November 2016 EMD contract award.
February 2017 Critical Design Review completed.
September 2018 Tailored Acquisition Strategy Approved to use two Decision Points in-lieu of single Milestone C.
April 2019 EPAWSS first flight
June 2019 Significant Nunn-McCurdy PAUC Deviation reported to Congress
UNCLASSIFIED 8
UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPA WSS December 2019 SAR
Threshold Breaches
APB Breaches
Schedule r-
Performance E.
Cost RDT&E r-
Procurement E
MILCON r-
Acq O&M E
O&S Cost
Unit Cost PAUC
APUC r-
Nunn-McCurdy Breaches
Current UCR Baseline
PAUC None
APUC None
Original UCR Baseline
PAUC None
APUC None
UNCLASSIFIED 9
UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPA WSS December 2019 SAR
Schedule
SAR Baseline Current Objective II APB Objective and Threshold Current Estimate • Current Estimate ',Breach)
15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25
, , ,
F-15 EPAWSS
Milestone A
•
Preliminary Design Review
Milestone B
Critical Design Review
Milestone C
ICT&E Start
Full Rate Production Decision
F-15E P.AA
F-15C RAA
•
Decision Point#2
Schedule Events
SAR Baseline Current APB
Current
Events Development Development
Estimate
Estimate Objective/Threshold
Milestone A Aug 2015 Aug 2015 Aug 2015 Aug 2015
Preliminary Design Review Jul 2016 Jul 2016 Jul 2016 Jul 2016
Milestone B Nov 2016 Nov 2016 Nov 2016 Nov 2016
Critical Design Review Mar 2017 Mar 2017 Sep 2017 Feb 2017
Milestone C Jul 2019 Oct 2020 Apr 2021 Oct 2020
10T&E Start Sep 2020 Apr 2023 Oct 2023 Apr 2023
Full Rate Production Decision Jan 2022 Apr 2024 Oct 2024 Apr 2024
F-15E RAA Jul 2022 Apr 2025 Oct 2025 Apr 2025
F-15C RAA Jun 2023 N/A N/A N/A
Decision Point #2 N/A May 2022 Nov 2022 May 2022
UNCLASSIFIED 10UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Change Explanations
(Ch-1) The program's current estimate for Milestone C changed from July 2019 to October 2020, Initial Operational Test &
Evaluation start from July 2021 to April 2023, FRP decision changed from July 2022 to April 2024, F-15E RAA changed from
November 2022 to April 2025 primarily as a result of electronic warfare hardware delivery delays due to design maturity and
producibility challenges. These delays left the program with insufficient quantities of hardware to support parallel installation,
integration, and test activities.The resulting inefficiencies had a compounding effect on the program's overall schedule.
(Ch-2) Decision Point #2 with a current estimate of May 2022 was added in the recent APB update.
Air Force Structure decision removed F-15C EPA WSS production Cost/quantities. As a result, updated APB removed F-
15C RAA milestone.
Notes
Updated Acquisition Strategy approved September 2018 authorizes the program to use two decision points in-lieu of a
single Milestone C decision. For statutory purposes, Decision Point #1 -- which authorizes the start of LRIP hardware and
the standup of an LRIP modification facility -- constitutes Milestone C. Decision Point #2 authorizes the start of LRIP
installations.
Acronyms and Abbreviations
10T&E - Initial Operational Test and Evaluation
RAA - Required Assets Available
UNCLASSIFIED 11UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Performance
Performance Characteristics
SAR Baseline Current APB
Demonstrated Current
Development Development
Performance Estimate
Estimate Objective/Threshold
Sustainment (Ac and Am)
Ao = 99% Am = 90°/0 I Ao = 9r/o Am = 88% TBD = 99% Am = 90%
Classified Performance information is provided in the classified annex to this submission.
CDD dated September 18, 2014
None
Am - Materiel Availability
Ao - Aircraft Availability
UNCLASSIFIED 12UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Track to Budget
General Notes
This section contains Government budget and cost estimates.
RDT&E
Air Force 3600 05 0207171F
657108 EPAWSS Development
Air Force 3600 07 0207171F
676038 EPAWSS Development (Sunk)
Procurement
Air Force 3010 07 0207171F
000075 F-15 EPAWSS Depot (Shared)
Activation
Notes: Funding for Depot Activation begins in FY 2021
Air Force 3010 06 0207171F
000999 Initial Spares/Repair Parts (Shared)
Air Force 3010 01 0207146F
F015E0 F-15 EX (Shared)
Air Force 3010 05 0207171F
Line Item Name
F15EWS F-15 EPAWSS
UNCLASSIFIED 13UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Cost and Funding
Cost Summary
Total Acquisition Cost
BY 2016 $M BY 2016 $M TY $M 101111
Appropriation SAR Baseline Current APB 1 SAR Baseline Current APB
Current Current
Development Development Development Development
Estimate Estimate
Estimate Objective/Threshold Estimate
r- Objective
RDT&E 876.5 1245.0 1369.5 1245.5 911.3 1339.3 1339.3
Procurement 3375.0 3163.3 3479.6 3175.9 4114.2 3945.3 3945.3
Flyaway 2573.5 3192.3
Recurring 2573.5 3192.3
Non Recurring 0.0 0.0
Support 602.4 753.0
Other Support 524.1 654.6
Initial Spares 78.3 98.4
MILCON 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Acq O&M 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 4251.5 4408.3 N/A 4421.4 5025.5 5284.6 5284.6
Current APB Cost Estimate Reference
POE with SAF/FMC and AFCAA sufficiency review dated January 24, 2020
Cost Notes
As a result of F-15 force structure changes, the program's current estimate cost baseline consists of procurement
cost for 144 F-15 EX EPAWSS Group A and Group B kits, development cost for 2 F-15C aircraft, and development,
procurement and installation cost for 217 F-1 5E aircraft (363 in total).
CAPE Cost Risks: A September 2019 POE included the following risks, potential impacts, and approaches to
mitigate these risks:
(1) Program's tailored acquisition strategy provides the opportunity to purchase [RIP hardware prior to a Functional
Configuration Audit / Physical Configuration Audit. If a hardware change is required after purchase, then it will
cause scrap and rework in [RIP. POE included cost for the realization of this risk.
Mitigation Approach: Decision Point #1 (Milestone C) entry criteria requires hardware testing that reduces the
probability and consequence of this risk. Testing includes, but is not limited to: design verification testing,
environment qualification testing, and ground and flight testing.
(2) Program will standup a different [RIP modification facility than what it is currently using for EPAWSS flight test
modifications in EMD. As a result, there is a risk that sufficient [RIP modification line staffing cannot be obtained to
meet program's planned install schedule.
Mitigation Approach: Initial cadre of personnel that will standup EPAWSS [RIP modification facility are currently
working EMD test jet modifications. Program also made adjustments to [RIP plan to space out early aircraft
inductions to allow more time to obtain staffing.
UNCLASSIFIED 14UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
r
Total Quantity
SAR Baseline
Current APB
Quantity Development Current Estimate
Development
Estimate
i
RDT&E 0 2 2
Procurement 413 361 361
Total 413 363 363
Quantity Notes
Total quantity of 363 consists of 2 F-1 5C test jet modifications, 217 F-1 5E production modifications, and 144 Group A and B
kits for F-15EX aircraft.
UNCLASSIFIED 15UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Cost and Funding
Funding Summary
Appropriation Summary
FY 2021 President's Budget / December 2019 SAR (TY$ M)
-11111
To
Appropriation Prior FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 Total11
Complete
RDT&E 803.5 47.3 170.7 155.4 146.3 16.1 0.0 0.0 1339.3
Procurement 33.0 192.5 276.5 402.6 422.0 415.1 444.9 1758.7 3945.3
MILCON 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Acq O&M 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PB 2021 Total 836.5 239.8 447.2 558.0 568.3 431.2 444.9 1758.7 5284.6
PB 2020 Total 1021.9 285.0 285.3 356.5 357.4 277.2 193.1 483.5 3259.9
Delta -185.4 -45.2 161.9 201.5 210.9 154.0 251.8 1275.2 2024.7
Quantity Summary
FY 2021 President's Budget! December 2019 SAR (TY$ M)
FY FY FY FY FY FY To
Quantity Undistributed Prior Total
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Complete
Development 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Production 0 0 8 17 27 35 44 49 181 361
PB 2021 Total 2 0 8 17 27 35 44 49 181 363
PB 2020 Total 0 18 12 23 27 33 26 25 57 221
Delta 2 -18 -4 -6 0 2 18 24 124 142
UNCLASSIFIED 16UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Cost and Funding
Annual Funding By Appropriation
Annual Funding
3600 I RDT&E I Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation, Air Force
Fiscal
Year
Quantity End Item
Recurring
Flyaway
Non End I
Item
Recurring
Flyaway
TV $1V1
Non
Recurring
Flyaway
Total
Flyaway
r Total
Support
Total
Program
2013 4.7
2014 9.6
2015 37.7
2016 174.4
2017 241.5
2018 202.2
2019 133.4
2020 47.3
2021 170.7
2022 155.4
2023 146.3
2024 16.1
Subtotal 2 1339,3
UNCLASSIFIED 17UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Annual Funding
3600 I RDT&E I Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation, Air Force
BY 2016 $M
1M1111. 1" 111 :a -111Mr
Fiscal End Item Non
Quantity Item Total Total Total
Year Recurring Recurring
Flyaway Recurring Flyaway Flyaway Support Program
Flyaway
2013 4.8
2014 9.7
2015 37.8
2016 172.3
2017 233.8
2018 191.8
2019 124.1
2020 43.1
2021 152.6
2022 136.2
2023 125.7
2024 13.6
Subtotal 2 1245.5
UNCLASSIFIED 18UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Annual Funding
3010 I Procurement I Aircraft Procurement, Air Force -
1111 11111Mr TY $M1
IF Non End 1
Fiscal End Item Non
Quantity Item Total I Total Total
Year Recurring Recurring
Recurring Flyaway Support Program
Flyaway Flyaway
Flyaway
2019 33.0 33.0
2020 8 141.4 141.4 51.1 192.5
2021 17 222.3 222.3 54.2 276.5
2022 27 347.8 347.8 54.8 402.6
2023 35 366.0 366.0 56.0 422.0
2024 44 371.5 371.5 43.6 415.1
2025 49 382.9 382.9 62.0 444.9
2026 56 414.9 414.9 78.8 493.7
2027 58 401.6 401.6 93.1 494.7
2028 52 375.2 375.2 102.0 477.2
2029 15 168.7 168.7 57.8 226.5
2030 44.0 44.0
2031 22.6 22.6
Subtotal 361 3192.3 3192.3 753.0 3945.3
UNCLASSIFIED 19UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Annual Funding
30101 Procurement I Aircraft Procurement, Air Force
1111 111111 BY 2016 $M IMF
it
Fiscal Non End 1
Quantity End Item Non
Year Item Total Total Total
Recurring Recurring
Recurring Flyaway Support Program
Flyaway Flyaway
Flyaway
2019 29.8 29.8
2020 8 125.1 125.1 45.3 170.4
2021 17 192.9 192.9 47.0 239.9
2022 27 295.9 295.9 46.6 342.5
2023 35 305.2 305.2 46.7 351.9
2024 44 303.7 303.7 35.7 339.4
2025 49 306.9 306.9 49.7 356.6
2026 56 326.1 326.1 61.9 388.0
2027 58 309.4 309.4 71.8 381.2
2028 52 283.4 283.4 77.1 360.5
2029 15 124.9 124.9 42.8 167.7
2030 31.9 31.9
2031 16.1 16.1
Subtotal 361 2573.5 2573.5 602.4 3175.9
UNCLASSIFIED 20UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
December 2018 SAR reflected the Air Force's force structure decision to remove production funding for 196 F-15C aircraft.
As a result, the MDA approved an updated APB that includes 144 F-15EX EPAWSS Group A and B kits in addition to
procurement and installation of 217 F-15E EPAWSS kits.
UNCLASSIFIED 21UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Charts
F-15 EPAWSS first began SAR reporting in December 2016
Program Acquisition Cost - F-15 EPAWSS
Base Year 2016 $M
15
40
0_
0 11
2017 2018 2319
SAR Submission Date
1 Pm Cost (TYS) —0— Acq Cost (BYS) --- Percent Delivered Percent Expended
Original APB included development, procurement, and installation cost for 196 F-15C aircraft and 217 F-15E aircraft
(413 in total). As a result of F-15 force structure changes, the program's updated APB consists of procurement
cost for 144 F-15 EX EPAWSS Group A and Group B kits, development cost for 2 F-15C aircraft, and development.
procurement and installation cost for 217 F-1 5E aircraft (363 in total).
UNCLASSIFIED 22UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Quantity - F-15 EPAWSS
400
300 -
t 200 -
z
100 -
2017 2018 2019
SAR Submission Date
Development QTY - — Production QTY Total QTY
Original APB included 196 F-15C aircraft and 217 F-15E aircraft (413 in total). As a result of an F-15 force structure
change removing 196 F-15C aircraft in-lieu of F-15EX aircraft, the program's updated APB consists of 144 F-15EX
EPAWSS, 2 F-15C test aircraft modifications, and 217 F-15E aircraft modifications (363 in total).
NOTE: 144 F-15EX aircraft represents a minimum projected quantity.
Unit Cost - F-15 EPAWSS
Base Year 2016 $M
14 25
12 20
10
15
3
10
6
5
4
0
2
-5
2017 2018 2019
SAR Submission Date
PAUC BYS PAUC UCRB % Chg PAUC Original % Chg APUC Original % Chg
APUC BYS --e— APUC UCRB % Chg
Original APB included development, procurement, and installation costs for 196 F-15C aircraft and 217 F-15E
aircraft (413 in total). As a result of F-15 force structure changes, the program's updated APB consists of
procurement cost for 144 F-15 EX EPAWSS Group A and Group B kits, development cost for 2 F-15C aircraft, and
development, procurement and installation costs for 217 F-15E aircraft (363 in total).
UNCLASSIFIED 23UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Risks
Significant Schedule and Technical Risks
Significant Schedule and Technical Risks
If the receiver/processor of the radar warning receiver and the electronic counter measure jammer system is
not matured sufficiently such that it can sort through a real world radio frequency environment to separate
threat emitters from background signals by developmental flight test, then it will drive schedule delays.
2. Program's tailored acquisition strategy provides the opportunity to purchase LRIP hardware prior to a
Functional Configuration Audit / Physical Configuration Audit. If a hardware change is required after
purchase, then it will cause scrap and rework in LRIP.
3. Program will standup a different LRIP modification facility than what it is currently using for EPAWSS flight
test modifications in Engineering and Manufacturing Development. As a result, there is a risk that sufficient
LRIP modification line staffing cannot be obtained to meet program's planned install schedule.
UNCLASSIFIED 24UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Risks
Risk and Sensitivity Analysis
Risks and Sensitivity Analysis
IM=MMLarrent Baseline Estimate (January 2020) .
1. If the receiver/processor of the radar warning receiver and the electronic countermeasure jammer system
is not matured sufficiently such that it can sort through a real world radio frequency environment to
separate threat emitters from background signals by developmental flight test, then the program schedule
will be delayed.
2. Program's tailored acquisition strategy provides the opportunity to purchase LRIP hardware prior to a
Functional Configuration Audit / Physical Configuration Audit. If a hardware change is required after
purchase, then it will cause scrap and rework in LRIP.
3. Program will standup a different LRIP modification facility than what it is currently using for EPAWSS flight
test modifications in EMD. As a result, there is a risk that sufficient LRIP modification line staffing cannot be
obtained to meet program's planned install schedule.
Original Baseline Estimate (November 2016)
1. The EPAWSS Original Baseline was set by the MDA in a November 2, 2016 ADM approving Milestone B.
The CAPE review of the cost estimates prepared for the F-15 EPAWSS Milestone B review dated
September 26, 2016 noted the Air Force conducted an analysis of the program staffing levels over time
compared to similar electronic warfare systems. CAPE concluded the staffing levels are reasonable and
achievable. To assess the reasonableness of the SCP and the ICE. CAPE reviewed the technical and cost
data collected from Boeing and BAE Systems in support of the Milestone B decision. F-15 Saudi Arabia
DEWS, from which EPAWSS heavily leverages, shares 87% of the software, 76% of the firmware, and
81% of the hardware with EPAWSS. CAPE noted the DEWS leverage reduces the overall risk for
development and procurement and provides a reasonable analogy for cost estimating.
Revised Original Estimate (N/A)
1. None
Current Procurement Cost December 2019
1. Program's tailored acquisition strategy provides the opportunity to purchase LRIP hardware prior to a
Functional Configuration Audit / Physical Configuration Audit. If a hardware change is required after
purchase, then it will cause scrap and rework in LRIP. Mitigation Approach: Decision Point #1 (Milestone C)
entry criteria requires hardware testing that reduces the probability and consequence of this risk. Testing
includes, but is not limited to: design verification testing, environment qualification testing, and ground and
,flight testing.
1
2. Program will standup a different LRIP modification facility than what it is currently using for EPAWSS flight
test modifications EMD. As a result, there is a risk that sufficient LRIP modification line staffing cannot be
obtained to meet program's planned install schedule. Mitigation Approach: Initial cadre of personnel that will
standup EPAWSS LRIP modification facility are currently working EMD test jet modifications. Program also
I made adjustments to LRIP plan to space out early aircraft inductions to allow more time to obtain staffing.
UNCLASSIFIED 25UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Low Rate Initial Production
Item —.11111.16, Initial LRIP Decision ' 41E Current Total LRIP
Approval Date 11/2/2016 11/2/2016
Approved Quantity 78 78
Reference Milestone B ADM Milestone B ADM
Start Year 2019 2020
End Year 2023 2025
The Current Total LRIP Quantity is more than 10% of the total production quantity in order to meet IOC requirement of 24
aircraft while providing spares and continued production until the FRP Decision.
Notes
LRIP start moved from CY 2019 to CY 2020 primarily as a result of EMD electronic warfare hardware delivery delays due to
design maturity and producibility challenges. This coupled with better information on projected LRIP aircraft modification
lead times drove the end of LRIP from CY 2023 to CY 2025.
UNCLASSIFIED 26UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Foreign Military Sales
None
UNCLASSIFIED 27UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Nuclear Costs
None
UNCLASSIFIED 28UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Unit Cost
Current UCR Baseline and Current Estimate (Base-Year Dollars)
BY 2016 $M
Program Acquisition Unit Cost
I Current UCR
Baseline
(Jan 2020 APB)
Current Estimate 1 i % Change
(Dec 2019 SAR)
Cost 4408.3 4421.4
Quantity 363 363
Unit Cost 12.144 12.180 +0.30
Average Procurement Unit Cost
Cost 3163.3 3175.9
Quantity 361 361
Unit Cost 8.763 8.798 +0.40
Original UCR Baseline and Current Estimate (Base-Year Dollars)
It BY 2016 $M 191 BY 2016 $M
Original UCR 1. % Change
Current Estimate
I Baseline
(Dec 2019 SAR)
(Nov 2016 APB)
Program Acquisition Unit Cost
Cost 4251.5 4421.4
Quantity 413 363
Unit Cost 10.294 12.180 +18.32
Average Procurement Unit Cost
Cost 3375.0 3175.9
Quantity 413 361
Unit Cost 8.172 8.798 +7.66
Original APB included development, procurement, and installation cost for 196 F-15C aircraft and 217 F-15E aircraft (413 in
total). As a result of F-15 force structure changes, the program's updated APB consists of procurement cost for 144 F-15
EX EPAWSS Group A and Group B kits, development cost for 2 F-1 5C aircraft, and development, procurement and
installation costs for 217 F-15E aircraft (363 in total).
UNCLASSIFIED 29UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
APB Unit Cost History
AM PAU
-1I
12 A APU',:
10
8
6
4
2
0
•
dtve 61- cc
c, cc
,S> \0 s>
c•`' •3•"'UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
SAR Baseline History
SAR SAR SAR
Current
Item Planning Development Production
Estimate
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Milestone A N/A Aug 2015 N/A Aug 2015
Milestone B N/A Nov 2016 N/A Nov 2016
Milestone C N/A Jul 2019 N/A Oct 2020
IOC N/A Jul 2022 N/A Apr 2025
Total Cost (TY $M) N/A 5025.5 N/A 5284.6
Total Quantity N/A 413 N/A 363
PAUC N/A 12.168 N/A 14.558
UNCLASSIFIED 31UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Cost Variance
1 Summary TY $M
Item RDT&E Procurement MILCON Total
SAR Baseline (Development 911.3 4114.2 5025.5
Estimate)
Previous Changes
Economic +2.2 +15.7 +17.9
Quantity -62.4 -1700.2 -1762.6
Schedule +109.8 +10.5 +120.3
Engineering
Estimating +23.9 -97.1 -73.2
Other
Support -68.0 -68.0
Subtotal +73.5 -1839.1 -1765.6
Current Changes
Economic -0.4 -3.1 -3.5
Quantity +0.1 +959.7 +959.8
Schedule +23.9 +23.9
Engineering
Estimating +354.8 +370.2 +725.0
Other
Support +319.5 +319.5
Subtotal +354.5 +1670.2 +2024.7
Total Changes +428.0 -168.9 +259.1
Current Estimate 1339.3 3945.3 5284.6
UNCLASSIFIED 32UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Summary BY 2016 $M
Item RDT&E Procurement MILCON Total
SAR Baseline (Development 876.5 3375.0 4251.5
Estimate)
Previous Changes
Economic
Quantity -60.4 -1345.4 -1405.8
Schedule +99.2 -22.5 +76.7
Engineering
Estimating +23.2 -54.8 -31.6
Other
Support -62.0 -62.0
Subtotal +62.0 -1484.7 -1422.7
Current Changes
Economic
Quantity +0.1 +732.4 +732.5
Schedule +5.8 +5.8
Engineering
Estimating +306.9 +297.9 +604.8
Other
Support +249.5 +249.5
Subtotal +307.0 +1285.6 +1592.6
Total Changes +369.0 -199.1 +169.9
Current Estimate 1245.5 3175.9 4421.4
Previous Estimate: December 2018
UNCLASSIFIED 33UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
RDT&E $M
Base Then
Current Change Explanations
Year Year
Revised escalation indices. (Economic) N/A -0.4
Quantity variance had no associated cost due to budget already including the quantities +0.1 +0.1
in the test profile. (Quantity)
Revised estimate due to program delays caused by design maturity and producibility +386.9 +442.4
challenges with electronic warfare hardware; which left the program with insufficient
quantities of hardware to support parallel installation, integration, and test activities.
(Estimating)
Revised estimate related to identified cost growth not being captured early enough to -77.1 -84.5
update FY 2020 position. (Estimating)
Revised estimate for SBIR withhold. (Estimating) -3.3 -3.5
Adjustment for current and prior escalation. (Estimating) +0.4 +0.4
RDT&E Subtotal +307.0 +354.5
Procurement $M
Base Then
Current Change Explanations
Year Year
Revised escalation indices. (Economic) N/A -3.1
Total Quantity variance resulting from an increase of 140 aircraft from 221 to 361. +684.8 +896.9
(Subtotal)
Quantity variance resulting from an increase of 140 aircraft from 221 to 361. (+732.4) (+959.7)
(Quantity)
Allocation to Schedule resulting from Quantity change. (Schedule) (QR) (+5.8) (+7.7)
Allocation to Estimating resulting from Quantity change. (Estimating) (QR) (-53.4) (-70.5)
Stretch-out of procurement buy profile due to development delays from FY 2019 to FY 0.0 +16.2
2029. (Schedule)
Revised estimate to reflect actual installation hours for modifying test aircraft from +291.4 +373.0
those estimated at Milestone B. (Estimating)
Revised estimate resulting from the addition of Depot installation lines, which required +59.7 +67.3
space allocation, support equipment and manpower for setup. (Estimating)
Adjustment for current and prior escalation. (Estimating) +0.2 +0.4
Increase in Other Support related to additional procurement quantity, additional +234.7 +298.4
modification location for capacity and resulting support equipment necessary to
support. (Support) (QR)
Increase in Initial Spares related to evaluation of necessary spares on hand. (Support) +14.6 +21.1
Adjustment for current and prior escalation. (Support) +0.2 0.0
Procurement Subtotal +1285.6 +1670.2
(QR) Quantity Related
UNCLASSIFIED 34UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Contracts
Contract Identification
Appropriation: RDT&E
Contract Name: F-15 EPAWSS EMD
Contractor: Boeing (Defense, Space, and Security)
Contractor Location: 6200 James S McDonnell BLVD
Saint Louis, MO 63134
Contract Number: FA8634-17-C-2650
Contract Type: Cost Plus Incentive Fee (CPIF), Cost Plus Fixed Fee (CPFF)
Award Date: November 03, 2016
Definitization Date: December 16, 2016
Initial Contract Price ($M)
1 Target Ceiling Qty Target
Contract Price
Current ContraRTRIce ($M)
Ceiling Qty
Estimated Price At Completion ($M)
Contractor Program Manager
•
478.8 N/A 0 522.4 N/A 0 644.8 644.8
Target Price Change Explanation
The difference between the Initial Contract Price Target and the Current Contract Price Target is due to procuring hardware
associated with dependency programs in July 2018 to drive down modification schedule risk. In addition, the program added
content in March 2019 for Initial Operational Test & Evaluation support and Capability In! Capability Out (CINCO). The
program also added a support and materiel Contract Line Item.
Contract Variance
Cost Variance Schedule Variance
Cumulative Variances To Date (11/30/2019) -49.4 -20.1
Previous Cumulative Variances -11.9 -17.6
Net Change -37.5 -2.5
Cost and Schedule Variance Explanations
The unfavorable net change in the cost variance is due to electronic warfare hardware delivery delays. It was also effected
by installation delays modifying EPAWSS test aircraft.
The unfavorable net change in the schedule variance is due to electronic warfare hardware delivery delays.
Notes
Six F-1 5E and two F-1 5C aircraft modifications will occur during EMD for development flight testing. The estimated price at
completion has increased due to cost growth primarily caused by electronic warfare hardware delivery delays due to design
maturity and producibility challenges and aircraft modification delays.
UNCLASSIFIED 35UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Deliveries and Expenditures
Deliveries
Planned to Percent
Delivered to Date Actual to Date Total Quantity
Date Delivered
Development 2 0.00%
Production 361 0.00%
Total Program Quantity Delivered 363 0.00%
z
Expended and Appropriated (TV $M)
Total Acquisition Cost 5284.6 Years Appropriated 8
Expended to Date 694.2 Percent Years Appropriated 42.11%
Percent Expended 13.14% Appropriated to Date 1076.3
Total Funding Years 19 Percent Appropriated 20.37%
The above data is current as of February 10, 2020.
UNCLASSIFIED 36UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Operating and Support Cost
Cost Estimate Details
Date of Estimate: January 21, 2020
Source of Estimate: POE
Quantity to Sustain: 363
Unit of Measure: System
Service Life per Unit: 27.00 Years
Fiscal Years in Service: FY 2022 - FY 2048
Operations and Support (O&S) cost based on 2 F-15C aircraft, 217 F-15E aircraft and 144 F-15EX aircraft.
Sustainment Strategy
The EPAWSS will employ a two-level maintenance concept — organic at both the Organizational Level (0-Level) and the
Depot Level (D-Level). EPAWSS contractors will provide Interim Contractor Support until the Government transitions to
an organic capability, anticipated at Initial Operational Capability plus 4 years. Per the Source of Repair Assignment
decision, EPAWSS is designated as a core capability. Warner-Robins Air Logistics Complex is the designated depot for
both the hardware and software maintenance.
Antecedent Information
The Antecedent System is the F-15 Tactical Electronic Warfare System (TEWS) consisting of electronic detection and
identification, internal countermeasures, and countermeasures dispensing. TEWS Source: Air Force Total Ownership
Cost Supply Distribution Table FY 2011 - FY 2015.
Annual O&S Costs BY2016 $K
F-15 EPAWSS F-15 TEWS (Antecedent)
Cost Element
Average Annual Cost Per System Average Annual Cost Per System
Unit-Level Manpower 0.000 0.000
Unit Operations 0.000 0.000
Maintenance 72.780 245.000
Sustaining Support 3.167 11.000
Continuing System Improvements 4.823 47.000
Indirect Support 0.000 0.000
Other 0.000 0.000
Total 80.770 303.000
The EPAWSS and Tactical Electronic Warfare System (TEWS) Operations and Support (O&S) costs are not completely
comparable. Portions of the TEWS system O&S costs are not included in the Annual Costs table because they are
not included in the available historical costs.
UNCLASSIFIED 37UNCLASSIFIED
F-15 EPAWSS December 2019 SAR
Total O&S Cost $M
F-15 EPAWSS
F-15 TEWS
Base Year
Current Development APB
Objective/Threshold
791.6 870.8
1
Current Estimall
791.6
I (Antecedent)
1837.5
Then Year 1255.3 N/A 1255.3 N/A
Equation to Translate Annual Cost to Total Cost
Total Operations and Support (O&S) costs = The annual O&S costs per aircraft * 27 years of service * 363 aircraft.
O&S Cost Variance
BY 2016
Category Change Explanations
$M
Prior SAR Total O&S Estimates - Dec 792.1
2018 SAR
Programmatic/Planning Factors -0.5 Decrease of $234.7M based on cost per flying hour
reduction and operational flight program managed
under own maintenance model. Increase of $234.2M
related to the addition of 144 F-15EX aircraft.
Cost Estimating Methodology 0.0
Cost Data Update 0.0
Labor Rate 0.0
Energy Rate 0.0
Technical Input 0.0
Other 0.0
Total Changes -0.5
Current Estimate 791.6
Disposal Estimate Details
Date of Estimate: September 09. 2016
Source of Estimate: SCP
Disposal/Demilitarization Total Cost (BY 2016 $M):
No additional disposal costs expected due to this modification.
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