Executive Overview The Market Outlook - Air Force Magazine
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Executive Overview
The Market Outlook
In terms of worldwide military fiscal-year basis. The latter repre- suggests that the US will account for
budgets, the unmanned aerial vehicle sents the value of UAV systems de- 65% of the RDT&E spending on
(UAV) segment has been one of the livered during a particular calendar UAV technology over the next dec-
most dynamic growth sectors this year (see Figure 3). In rough terms, ade, and about 41% of the procure-
past decade. And during the next dec- the funds “procured” during one year ment (this latter percentage does not
ade we estimate that the sector will result in “delivered: units the follow- take into account potential UCAV
continue to increase by about 79% ing year. (including UCLASS) procurement
overall, going from the current level The most significant catalyst to later in the decade, which is highly
of $6.4 billion to $11.5 billion (see this market has been the enormous speculative at this point and would
Figure 1). If operations and mainte- growth of interest in UAVs by the US drive this number much higher). In
Figure 1
nance expenditures were to be added, military, tied to operations in Iraq addition, there is an indeterminable
these totals would be even greater. and Afghanistan, as well as the gen- “black” US budget for UAVs which
Please note that in our tables and eral trend towards information war- is not accounted for in our unclassi-
charts “procurement” and “produc- fare and net-centric systems. UAVs fied numbers. A tangible example of
tion value” are two different, but re- are a key element in the intelligence, this is the RQ-170 Sentinel program
lated numbers. The former represents surveillance and reconnaissance which only came to light when one of
the annual amount production fund- (ISR) portion of this revolution, and the stealth drones was downed (or
ing included in a particular country’s they are expanding into other mis- came down) in Iranian territory.
annual defense budget, usually on a sions as well with the advent of These US UAV funding shares for
hunter-killer UAVs. Our research R&D and procurement represent
©Teal Group Corporation World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems 2014 Edition
Page 2 Executive Overview higher shares of the market than for market, but several significant play- UAV production forecasts based on defense spending in general where ers in the region, namely Japan and the various program unit forecasts. the US accounts for about 64% of to- China are not especially transparent As can be seen, the procurement as- tal worldwide R&D spending and about their plans compared to Eu- pect of the budget forecast is higher 38% of procurement spending, ac- rope. As in the case of many cutting than the production forecast (by cording to Teal Group’s Interna- edge aerospace products, Africa and value). The procurement forecast tional Defense Briefing forecasts. Latin America are expected to be captures costs other than the acquisi- This difference is due to the heavier very modest markets for UAVs. tion costs alone such as modification US investment in cutting-edge tech- Some warnings are needed when programs, acquisition of system nologies and the marked lag-time in viewing the summary tables and components such as sensors, ground such research and procurement else- charts here. There appear to be wide control stations and support equip- where, especially major aerospace swings and dips in unit acquisition ment. centers such as Europe. This follows over the forecast decade that is not The US lines are derived from the trends in other cutting-edge technol- matched by similar swings in the pro- US budget procurement forecast ogies observed over the past decade duction value. This is primarily due found in the US section, but adapted by Teal Group analysts in such areas to the volatile mini-UAV market to match calendar vs. fiscal year, as as precision-guided weapons, infor- which represents very large numbers well as time-shifted to recognize the mation and sensor technology, and of air vehicles even though unit costs time lag between appropriations and military application of space sys- are extremely low compared to other actual production. The "Rest of the tems. UAVs, especially the endurance World" procurement line is based on Teal Group expects that the sales types. This forecast expects a drop in the production forecast plus a frac- of UAVs will follow recent patterns US mini-UAV acquisition as combat tional addition to account for the of high-tech arms procurement operations wind down in Iraq and Af- other UAV costs. worldwide, with the Asia-Pacific ghanistan, which has a significant ef- area representing the second largest fect on unit numbers though not on market, followed by Europe. Indeed, dollar values. the Asia-Pacific region may repre- The summary tables below in- sent an even larger segment of the clude a budget forecast, as well as World UAV Budget Forecast R&D ($ Millions) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Total USA 2,100 2,161 1,879 1,708 1,739 1,826 1,917 2,013 2,114 2,219 19,676 Rest of World (RoW) 770 805 850 910 1,000 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 1,340 10,575 Total R&D 2,870 2,966 2,729 2,618 2,739 2,976 3,117 3,263 3,414 3,559 30,251 Procurement ($ Millions) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Total USA (less UCAVs) 1,530 1,173 2,052 2,060 2,401 2,830 2,988 3,154 3,330 3,516 25,035 RoW (less UCAVs) 2,010 2,644 2,895 3,711 3,335 3,925 4,291 4,171 4,296 4,425 35,704 Total Procurement 3,540 3,817 4,946 5,771 5,736 6,756 7,279 7,326 7,627 7,941 60,739 ($ Millions) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Total World R&D 2,870 2,966 2,729 2,618 2,739 2,976 3,117 3,263 3,414 3,559 30,251 World Procurement 3,540 3,817 4,946 5,771 5,736 6,756 7,279 7,326 7,627 7,941 60,739 Total 6,410 6,782 7,675 8,389 8,475 9,732 10,397 10,589 11,040 11,501 90,990 World Production Forecast by Type (Units, Air Vehicles) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Mini-UAVs 2,255 1,812 1,712 2,128 2,351 3,251 3,440 3,919 4,187 4,672 29,727 STUAVs 243 207 159 203 219 250 249 240 257 257 2,284 TUAVs 170 127 132 132 168 236 271 260 264 234 1,994 Naval UAVs 38 14 31 45 44 53 43 58 66 60 452 MALE 104 122 75 104 110 95 77 123 125 139 1,074 2014 Edition World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems ©Teal Group Corporation
Executive Overview Page 3
(Units, Air Vehicles) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total
HALE — 1 3 11 11 15 14 16 22 24 117
UCAVs — — — — 2 5 16 16 23 17 79
Total 2,810 2,283 2,112 2,623 2,905 3,905 4,110 4,632 4,944 5,403 35,727
($ Millions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total
Mini-UAVs 168 144 138 166 188 251 269 308 323 373 2,329
STUAVs 111 91 73 97 105 113 112 113 121 122 1,057
TUAVs 530 394 407 393 499 715 809 763 789 686 5,982
Naval UAVs 530 170 323 439 402 466 394 563 627 579 4,493
MALE 1,972 2,343 1,444 1,959 2,048 1,704 1,393 2,262 2,302 2,582 20,009
HALE — 75 200 1,000 920 1,260 1,210 1,390 1,920 2,150 10,125
UCAVs — — — — 300 750 2,050 2,050 2,800 2,200 10,150
Total 3,311 3,218 2,585 4,054 4,462 5,259 6,237 7,449 8,881 8,692 54,146
Figure 2
World Production Forecast by Region (less UCAVs)
(Units, Air Vehicles) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total
USA 1,052 1,054 999 1,134 1,345 1,579 1,779 2,103 2,111 2,625 15,781
Rest of World (RoW) 1,758 1,229 1,113 1,489 1,558 2,321 2,315 2,513 2,810 2,761 19,867
Europe 573 427 351 436 533 757 729 685 769 846 6,106
Mid-East 604 250 250 285 192 121 381 479 639 514 3,715
Africa 91 80 77 12 24 178 170 77 94 94 897
©Teal Group Corporation World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems 2014 EditionPage 4 Executive Overview
(Units, Air Vehicles) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total
Asia-Pacific 361 399 392 749 771 1,071 977 1,234 1,227 1,226 8,407
Americas 129 73 43 7 38 194 58 38 81 81 742
Total 2,810 2,283 2,112 2,623 2,903 3,900 4,094 4,616 4,921 5,386 35,648
($ Millions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total
USA 1,790 1,755 758 1,650 1,530 1,135 1,155 1,830 2,180 2,700 16,483
Rest of World (RoW) 1,521 1,463 1,827 2,404 2,632 3,374 3,032 3,569 3,901 3,792 27,513
Europe 456 409 627 872 857 918 852 964 1,014 979 7,949
Mid-East 401 315 428 420 377 508 434 541 549 507 4,481
Africa 37 34 22 26 45 55 69 75 69 69 500
Asia-Pacific 416 475 531 1,051 1,307 1,717 1,499 1,656 1,998 1,965 12,615
Americas 211 229 219 35 45 177 178 333 272 272 1,969
Total 3,311 3,218 2,585 4,054 4,162 4,509 4,187 5,399 6,081 6,492 43,996
Study Parameters
The aim of this study is to exam- is the military requirements for re- and TUAV in size, typically small
ine the future worldwide market for connaissance and strike UAVs. The enough to be lifted by a human, but
unmanned aerial vehicles. Teal study does not cover target drones, too large to be launched by hand.
Group already covers the UAV mar- nor does it cover terminal attack Typically launched by a bungee or
ket in its World Missiles & UAVs drones which are more properly cat- similar system, and deployed at bat-
Briefing which examines the UAV egorized as loitering missiles. It does talion level. A typical example
market on a program-by-program ba- not cover any form of lighter-than-air would be the Boeing/Insitu
sis. The aim of this study is to com- vehicle such as aerostats, blimps, and ScanEagle or the German Luna.
plement the WMUB by examining so on. Due to the requirements orien-
the market from a different perspec- tation of the study, it is organized on Tactical UAVs (TUAVs)—A
tive, namely national requirements. a regional/country basis. Countries UAV used for reconnaissance by
This approach has been taken be- which have been assessed to have a Army formations of regiment, bri-
cause a study based on existing pro- likely UAV requirement are in- gade, or division size, with endur-
grams has distinct limitations. Unlike cluded; those with a low probability ance of several hours and operating
more established markets such as of acquiring UAVs are not included. radius of 200 km or less. Some typi-
missiles or aircraft, the UAV market From a technical standpoint, the cal examples are the British Watch-
is so new and undeveloped that an- market has been divided into various keeper, US Shadow, French Cré-
other approach to market assessment categories that are common in the in- cerelle/Sperwer, and Israeli
is necessary. dustry. Some of these begin to blend Searcher.
The approach taken in this market together at the margins, but the cate- Naval VTUAVs—A tactical ver-
is requirements-driven and from the gories are useful both in terms of re- tical-take-off UAV adapted for ship-
micro-perspective. Rather than use a quirements assessments and costing board use with a customized ground
macro-approach consisting of an es- estimates. The categories are: controls station for shipboard opera-
timate the current market size and an tions. This does not include small
extrapolation of growth rates from Micro UAVs—A UAV small
enough to be held in the palm of the tactical UAVs or MALE UAVs op-
that point, the study examines likely erated by navies from shore bases or
requirements for UAVs on a country- hand, usually weighing less than a
kilogram. ships. Typical examples are the
by-country basis and estimates the Schiebel Camcopter and the MQ-8
likely scale and pace of acquisitions. Mini UAVs—A UAV small Fire Scout.
The reason for this is that the market enough to be launched by a person;
is very new and so past trends pro- typically deployed by army units at MALE UAVs—A Medium Alti-
vide little guidance for the future. platoon or company level. A typical tude/Long Endurance UAV with en-
The primary forecasts are based on example is the AeroVironment RQ- durance of about 24 hours and long
UAV deliveries, not orders or budget 11 Raven. Sometimes called “Over- range capability, generally used for
appropriations. In the US case where the-Hill” UAV or "back-pack" UAV operational reconnaissance. Typical
more data is available, both budget examples are the Predator and
and production forecasts are pro- Small Tactical UAVs (STU- Heron.
vided. The primary focus of the study AVs)—A UAV between mini-UAV
2014 Edition World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems ©Teal Group CorporationExecutive Overview Page 5
HALE UAVs—A High Alti- UCAVs—Uninhabited Combat not included in this category, but in
tude/Long Endurance UAV with en- Air Vehicle, a high performance their original platform/size category.
durance of a day or more and long UAV designed primarily for ground
range capability, generally used for attack. Tactical UAVs and MALE
strategic reconnaissance. The Global UAVs with secondary strike capa-
Hawk is a typical example. bility such as the MQ-9 Reaper are
Forecast Assumptions
Forecasting is by its nature, an art, such as future conflicts, major politi- claim that this is the only possible
not a science. To stretch this analogy cal upheavals, etc. The branches on scenario, or the only plausible fore-
further, the forecasts in this report the limbs represent variations within cast. In recent years, UAV acquisi-
should be regarded as “impression- these major scenarios influenced by tion has been very strongly affected
ism” not “realism.” The numerical new technologies, local political de- by war-related demands of the US
forecasts in this report may seem to velopments, and so on. At one ex- armed forces in Iraq and Afghani-
provide a highly detailed “realistic” treme is the possibility of global Ar- stan. Our presumption is that future
portrayal of the market. The reader mageddon in which case, zero UAVs US involvement in Iraq will be very
should not be fooled by the seeming will be built; on the other extreme is modest and confined mainly to UAV
precision of these numbers. By its na- the Nirvana of global peace and tran- surveillance missions and that US
ture, this forecast is based upon as- quility in which case, zero military commitments in Afghanistan will ta-
sumptions, summaries, and simplifi- UAVs will be built. There are endless per off over the next few years. The
cations which invariably involve variations in between with varying forecast does not include any new
large margins of imprecision. numbers of UAV systems likely to be major regional conflicts that might
Forecasting can be viewed meta- built. Our forecast is only one possi- spur UAV sales, although such
phorically as a tree. We have a fairly ble branch of the many potential events are quite likely, such as poten-
solid knowledge of the trunk, that is, branches of the tree. Many other pos- tial US involvement in Syria/Iraq.
the recent size of the market over the sible forecasts are plausible given More drastic international events
past few years. The future can be different scenarios or assumptions. such as a potential conflict over dis-
viewed as the limbs- the limbs repre- We attempt to make clear our as- puted islands in the East China Sea
senting major alternative scenarios sumptions and rationale in each of are not considered in this scenario.
the sections in this report. We do not
Cost Evaluation
The cost of UAV systems can be and a weapon system cost of modular payloads. Finally, the num-
assessed in a wide variety of ways in- $131,821,000. ber of air vehicles per system varies
cluding the basic “fly-away” cost of A second problem in estimating so that some systems include four air
the system, the cost of a system in- future UAV spending is the variety of vehicles but other packages might in-
cluding spares and support, the cost systems on offer. Some tactical clude six or eight. Some systems can
of a system including these costs plus UAVs are quite elementary with sim- include one ground control station
a share of the RDT&E spending, and ple commercial-off-the-shelf TV (GCS) while others can include two
these costs plus operations and cameras while others have elaborate or more. In order to provide a basic
maintenance expenses. So for exam- sensor suites. Likewise, UAV sys- idea of UAV costs based on public
ple, the RQ-4 Global Hawk in FY12 tems vary enormously in complexity budget data, the table below summa-
had a fly-away cost of $103,675,000 and some systems include multiple rizes some recent cost data from US
UAV programs.
System Cost Notes
USMC Dragon Eye Mini-UAV system $154,000 (FY06) two air vehicles and one GCS
USMC SURSS Mini-UAV system $140,078 (FY08) three a/v and one GCS
US Army RQ-7A Shadow $14,900,000 (FY09) three a/v, two GCSs, other equipment
USN MQ-8 Fire Scout $13,550,000 (FY07-12 avg.) system program cost; air vehicle cost
$191,985 in FY12
USAF MQ-1B Predator $3,810,000 (FY09) air-vehicle fly-away cost
USAF MQ-9 Reaper $12,214,000 (FY12) air-vehicle fly-away cost
©Teal Group Corporation World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems 2014 EditionPage 6 Executive Overview
System Cost Notes
US Army MQ-1C Grey Eagle $5,404,900 (FY12) air-vehicle fly-away cost
USAF RQ-4 Global Hawk $103,700,000 (FY12) air-vehicle fly-away cost
A further complexity in assessing ing economies-of-scale once produc- The cost fluctuations of the Predator
cost is the time factor, with innumer- tion ramps up to optimal levels, in- MALE UAV provide an example of
able variables affecting price includ- creasing complexity of the aircraft, this. The following charts lists fly-
added features, and inflation factors. away costs through time:
USAF RQ-1/MQ-1 Predator Fly-Away Price
FY99: $7,632,800
FY02: $2,909,000
FY03: $3,727,000
FY04: $4,459,000
FY05: $4,924,000
FY06: $3,664,000
FY07: $4,263,000
FY08: $5,561,000
FY09: $3,810,000
The cost of imported UAV sys- local technology and other features. The program included a require-
tems presents its own set of complex- Some insight into the complexity of ment for the O&M and spares costs
ities. The contracts are seldom re- these issues can be gained from the for 10 years of operations at a level
leased in public beyond bare-bones few large UAV sales that have been of 2,000 flight hours per aircraft. The
information about the number of air- publicly detailed. In 2011, the French program also included a requirement
craft acquired or the overall price of Senate released cost data about the for "Francization," i.e., the incorpo-
the program. In addition, import pro- competition between the IAI Heron ration of French subsystems. The
grams contain a varied mixture of TP and the General Atomics MQ-9 cost per flight hour was assessed as
content, sometimes being a straight- Reaper Block 5 for the French in- €6,000 for the Reaper and €7,150 for
forward off-the-shelf acquisition, but terim MALE UAV requirement. the Heron TP.
in other cases including provisions Both offerings covered seven air-
for training, spares, incorporation of craft, two GCSs and initial spares.
MALE UAV Cost Comparison: French Interim MALE Program (2011 €millions)
Type: Heron TP MQ-9 Reaper
System costs: 177 67
Initial client costs: included 4
FMS cost: included 3
System subtotal: 177 74
O&M, spares 10 years: 143 135
Program subtotal: 320 209
Francization: 50 88
Total 370 297
Due to the complexity of these the value of tactical UAV market, as well as variations between domes-
cost issues, a simplified cost forecast each air vehicle has been assigned a tic production systems and imported
has been used here. Costs have been cost of $2 million ($10 million @ systems. A sample of price ranges
estimated for specific categories of five air vehicles per system) even used in this study is listed below.
UAV systems, and a portion of the though the actual cost of the air vehi- Once again, it is important to empha-
system costs have been assessed cle is typically less than $2 million. size that this is not an assessment of
against each UAV. So for example, a This study also presumes that UAV the cost of each aircraft, but rather an
typical tactical UAV system might costs will vary from region to region, attempt to create an assessment of the
cost about $10 million and have five in part due to a varying mixture of cost of the aircraft plus a portion of
air vehicles. As a result, to formulate more and less sophisticated systems the system cost.
2014 Edition World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems ©Teal Group CorporationExecutive Overview Page 7
UAV Assessed Cost Ranges ($ in thousands)
Mini-UAV $50,000-65,000
Small Tactical UAV $300,000-500,000
Tactical UAV $1,500,000-4,000,000
Naval VTUAV $8,000,000-15,000,000
MALE UAV $9,000,000-20,000,000
HALE UAV $75,000,000-115,000,000
UCAV $20,000,000-150,000,000
Civil Small/Mini UAV $50,000-200,000
Civil Large UAV $5,000,000-20,000,000
While not ideal, this simplified systems for each individual country international expenditures outside
pricing approach is more practical requirement. the US.
than a more precise, but unwieldy if We do not include operations and For the purposes of this study,
not impossible, approach such as es- maintenance costs associated with lower cost UAVs of less than
timating different costs for different UAV operations in this report as the $10,000 have not been included in ei-
numbers are lacking, especially for ther the market or unit numbers.
Military UAVs
Forecasting the size of the future missions. While UAVs have tradi- the BQM-34 Firebee and its deriva-
UAV market is far more problematic tionally been thought of as an intelli- tives at the time of the Vietnam War.
than in other areas of aerospace tech- gence collection platform, in recent Their mission was primarily strategic
nology. There are several reasons for years they have expanded into poten- reconnaissance. These systems used
this. The most important is that tial combat strike platforms which wet film cameras and infrared line-
UAVs are a revolutionary new tech- could substantially increase their scanners; they had no real-time data
nology. They are not an established market potential. capability. The European NATO
technology (such as missiles, combat countries showed an early interest in
aircraft, etc.) where there are clearly The Past as Prologue tactical reconnaissance drones start-
defined requirements and established It is useful to take a brief look at ing in the 1970s such as CL-89, CL-
bureaucratic organizations that foster the recent history of UAVs to better 289, and the Italian Mirach family.
their procurement. While there has appreciate the current and future Once again, these systems generally
been a considerable amount of atten- market. Drones have been in exist- carried wet film cameras and IR
tion to UAVs in the press, and con- ence since 1917. The first practical lines-canners with no real-time data
siderable experimentation with use for drones was to serve as air de- transmission features. The Israelis
UAVs by many armies, there are still fense targets and numerous target used both the US Firebee and Chukar
an enormous number of unanswered drones were manufactured in the in the 1973 October War and 1982
questions about the nature of UAVs years before World War II. The first Lebanon War.
and their operation that make any armed drones such as the TDR-1 The US Navy again pioneered the
forecasting difficult. Until recently, were developed in World War II and use of armed drones in the form of
the UAV market was relatively first used in combat in the autumn of the QH-50 DASH which was de-
small. In the mid-1990s, for example, 1944 by the US Navy. Early drones ployed aboard destroyers to extend
the market was probably less than were not especially effective due to the range of anti-submarine torpe-
$100 million annually worldwide. It limitations in flight controls and sen- does. More than a thousand were
has expanded more than ten-fold in sors. built, but the type was quickly retired
less than a decade, and currently After World War II, a number of from service due to an extremely
about $6 billion is spent annually countries began to deploy drones for high attrition rate due to accidents.
worldwide on UAVs. As a result, tra- reconnaissance and surveillance pur- Israel acquired a number of drones
ditional methods of estimating mar- poses. The two most common roles from the US in the late 1960s includ-
ket size such as extrapolations based were to serve as the forward eyes of ing both reconnaissance drones, tar-
on past growth rates do not offer a the field artillery and to conduct shal- get drones and early types of decoy
plausible method to assess the future low reconnaissance of enemy posi- drones. Early experiences with these
market size. To further complicate tions. The first extensive operational drones led Israeli firms in the late
matters, UAVs have been proliferat- use of UAVs for reconnaissance pur- 1970s to begin developing small
ing not only in numbers but also in poses can be traced back to US use of
©Teal Group Corporation World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems 2014 EditionPage 8 Executive Overview
RPVs that could provide real-time in- tactical UAVs with real-time data Lebanon Air Campaign 2006
telligence using the new generation transmission capability. During the fighting with Hezbol-
of simple video cameras. Israeli sys- lah in Lebanon in August 2006, the
tems like the Scout and Mastiff were Balkan Lessons Israeli Defense Forces conducted
the forerunners of many contempo- The utility of UAVs in contempo- 1,502 sorties amounting to 16,418
rary tactical drone programs. How- rary conflicts was highlighted during hours of UAV operations of which
ever, contrary to much of the hype the air campaign over Kosovo. The 13,000 hours were intelligence mis-
surrounding this subject, there is lit- new style of warfare is dependent on sions; in contrast, manned combat
tle evidence that there was extensive low casualties, especially politically aircraft conducted 10,337 sorties to-
use of these RPVs in actual combat sticky incidents such as captured pi- taling 12,000 flight hours. This was
in the 1982 war although there was lots. In an age of “information war- one of the first air campaigns where
use of US drones. fare”, someone or something has to UAVs flew more hours than manned
In the wake of the 1982 Mid-East go out and collect the information. In aircraft, The Hermes 450S was cred-
War, the US reinvigorated its own past wars this might have been a ited with 15,000 hours of flight time
RPV programs. However, the US manned reconnaissance aircraft like and other types such as the Searcher-
Army stumbled badly in the real-time the U-2 or SR-71, or a spy satellite. 2, Hermes 450S “Zik” and the
intelligence field in the early 1980s Space based reconnaissance remains Heron-1 “Shoval” accounting for the
with its overly ambitious Aquila pro- important, but UAVs are far more remainder. Besides the tactical
gram, which significantly put back flexible and offer real time imagery UAVs, the IDF also used low-rate
US RPV efforts. immediately after the mission is as- production versions of the Elbit Sky-
Through the 1990s, the UAV mar- signed. In addition, operation at low lark and Rafale Skylite B mini-
ket was very small and was domi- altitudes offers better imagery resolu- UAVs.
nated by Israeli firms, especially Is- tion which is often needed in peace-
rael Aircraft Industries’ Malat keeping operations where individuals Afghanistan and Iraq
branch. IAI Malat represented about and small objects need to be tracked. UAVs have become a ubiquitous
90% of the world production of real- Kosovo saw the use of a wide range feature on the modern battlefield
time UAV systems in the 1990s, a of UAVs including the RQ-1 Preda- since the combat operations in Iraq
telling comment on how small this tor, BQM-155 Hunter, and CL-289 and Afghanistan starting in 2001.
market was in spite of all of the pub- Piver. The US armed forces by 2001 had
licity. Malat's annual business during On the down side, Kosovo also re- started to field a wide array of UAVs,
the period averaged under $100 mil- vealed the vulnerability of UAVs to with the Air Force taking the lead.
lion. IAI produced only 600 UAVs contemporary air defenses. A total of Predator has become synonymous
through the beginning of 1998, and 27 UAVs were lost, some to air de- with UAVs in the public mind. The
less than a hundred UAV systems. fense missiles, some to operational relevance of UAVs to the operations
Besides these programs, there was an problems. This was about ten times was due to a variety of factors. Both
established UAV program in Europe, the scale of aircraft losses, though in Iraq and Afghanistan were benign
but this concentrated on the earlier terms of expense, the UAV losses environments from the standpoint of
generation of reconnaissance UAVs were considerably less significant. air defense threats. As compared to
such as the CL-289 Piver which did Furthermore, the loss of a UAV does UAV operations over the Balkans or
not have real-time intelligence capa- not compel a risky search-and-rescue Georgia where UAVs were often
bility. operation as was the case with the shot down, UAVs could operate over
downed F-117 aircraft. Technology Iraq and Afghanistan with virtually
Gulf War Lessons losses are less as well. The Kosovo no opposition. In low-intensity
At the time of the Gulf War, sev- experience raises the question of the peace-keeping operations, the mini-
eral countries had a handful of UAV inclusion of counter-measures on fu- mization of casualties becomes a po-
systems, many having been pur- ture designs. What are the trade-offs litical and tactical necessity. The use
chased as technology demonstrators. in terms of weight, cost, and payload of UAVs becomes especially attrac-
The French operated a handful of to include countermeasures, and how tive for their value in conducting in-
ALTEC Mart systems, while the US might they be activated? It seems telligence operations at no risk to pi-
operated a small number of AAI/IAI likely that countermeasures are not lots. The use of tactical UAVs in-
Malat Pioneers from US Navy battle- worthwhile for small tactical UAVs cluding mini-UAVs reduces the need
ships to provide gun fire correction that are much smaller than contem- of army units to conduct dangerous
and target location data. These rather porary fighter aircraft, but they might scouting and patrolling missions
modest operations in 1991 were be considered on large, high-cost sys- where the risk of ambush is great.
probably the first large-scale use of tems such as the Global Hawk. When reconnaissance missions or
convoys were needed, UAVs could
2014 Edition World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems ©Teal Group CorporationExecutive Overview Page 9
be used to conduct route security and Unmanned Combat Air Vehi- studying air vehicles that perform
to aid in the detection of IEDs. cles (UCAVs) like conventional strike aircraft.
From a political standpoint, the The latest visionary role for Their flight computer is briefed on a
hunter-killer UAV took on enormous UAVs is to replace conventional strike mission, and then the air vehi-
importance. The armed Predator and combat aircraft. Once again, this is a cle flies out to the target and attacks
Reaper UAVs entered service on an revival of an old idea rather than an it, perhaps under human control. The
experimental basis early in the cam- entirely new concept. The US Air Predator mission in Afghanistan sug-
paigns, but became so valuable so Force experimented with Firebee gests that there will probably be sev-
quickly that they fundamentally drones, armed with laser-guided eral types of armed UAVs. The Pred-
changed the nature of air combat in bombs and Maverick guided missiles ator has been used as a “hunter-
peace-keeping operations against in- back in the late 1960s and early killer” UAV that serves both as a re-
surgent forces. Unlike conventional 1970s. The early experiments were connaissance platform and a strike
aircraft, they could be used to main- aimed at developing a surrogate for aircraft, searching out the target be-
tain a continuous, persistent presence attack aircraft, primarily to carry out fore attacking it. A relatively slow
to monitor suspected insurgent areas, dangerous ground attack missions. UAV like the Predator is more versa-
and could conduct precision strikes Today’s futurists see a role for tile than a high speed jet UAV for
when needed. In contrast to conven- UCAVs not only in the ground attack such missions. Indeed, in the forecast
tional strike aviation which is best role, but even as fighter aircraft. period here, the procurement of these
suited to attack conventional military UCAVs became a bit less futuris- hunter-killer UAVs such as the MQ-
formations, the primary tactical mis- tic in October 2001 when UAVs were 9A Reaper is far more significant
sion of the hunter-killer UAVs has used in combat for the first time over than the stealth UCAVs mentioned
been decapitation strikes against the Afghanistan. The US Air Force had below.
command elements of the insurgent been experimenting with a RQ-1 Two jet-powered, stealth UCAVs
force. The substantial value of these Predator armed with Hellfire antitank were under development in the US
missions has been reflected in the missiles earlier. This was more of a for future requirements, the Air
continual increase in the USAF in- technology demonstration effort than Force’s X-45 being developed by
ventory requirements for the Preda- a scheme to actually arm the Preda- Boeing, and the Navy’s X-47 being
tor/Reaper. tor. But when conflict broke out in developed by Northrop Grumman.
The availability of the Predator the wake of the 11 September at- These are sleek, stealthy, unmanned
and Reaper hunter-killer UAVs in tacks, the Predator was deployed to strike jets, and bear little similarity to
US Air Force service has led to a shift the Afghanistan Theater including the ungainly and slow armed Preda-
in combat dynamics in theaters such the armed version. During one mis- tors. Initial flight trials have begun
as Iraq and Afghanistan. While the sion in October 2001, it was used to which should help to clarify the tac-
Clinton administration in the 1990s track the convoy of a senior govern- tical potential of UCAVs. The US
preferred the use of Tomahawk ment official, and then to fire a mis- program has undergone considerable
cruise missiles as a means of project- sile near a bunker where the delega- turmoil over the past few years with
ing power in conflict zones, the Bush tion took shelter. The mission was the Navy now in charge of a rump
and the Obama administrations have not successful, but press accounts demonstration program concerning
shifted in favor of hunter-killer suggest the problem had to do with carrier landing capabilities. It is as-
drones. The Predator/Reaper permits rules of engagement, not with the sumption of this study that the US
persistent surveillance coupled with basic technology. Further armed Air Force UCAV program has gone
near-time target engagement, along UAV operations took place outside “black,” i.e., into the world of secret
with much greater precision in target- the nominal battle areas, such as the compartmented programs.
ing. The US use of Tomahawk cruise attack on an Al Qaeda official in Several of the European air forces
missiles has almost entirely evapo- Yemen in the autumn of 2002. These have expressed interest in UCAVs,
rated, while Predator/Reaper combat first demonstrations of the armed but so far little developmental fund-
use has increased dramatically. In UAV in combat are reminiscent of ing has been committed outside the
2004, the US Air Force was able to the first use incidents of air-to-air United States. France tried to push its
maintain five simultaneous Predator combat in 1914 with pilots dueling Neuron program as the basis for a
combat air patrols (CAP); by 2009 with guns, bricks, and other impro- European UCAV, but Britain has
this had risen seven-fold to 38 simul- vised weapons. They provide only a funded its own Taranis effort and
taneous CAPs; and to 50 CAPs by hint of their future potential. Germany flew its Barrakuda demon-
2011. The first use of the Predator as an strator. France and Britain are com-
armed UAV raises an interesting mitted to a joint UCAV effort under
question about future UCAVs. The the recent Lancaster House Treaty.
US Air Force and Navy had been Russia had plans for a number of
©Teal Group Corporation World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems 2014 EditionPage 10 Executive Overview
UCAVs back in the Soviet days, and mission requires a wide range of abil- as was shown in the short Russian-
appears to be getting back into this ities that are not currently achievable Georgian war where Russian forces
business with designs like the MiG with existing technology. The fighter shot down several Georgian UAVs
Skat. mission currently seems the most dis- over the disputed territory of Abkha-
There are three main attractions to tant for a UCAV. zia.
UCAVs. On the one hand, the re- In the case of ground attack mis- The Europeans have tried to create
moval of the pilot promises to reduce sions against a predetermined target, the distinction between surveillance
the size of the air vehicle by eliminat- a UCAV may be attractive as air de- and reconnaissance missions, ac-
ing the space and weight required for fenses continue to become more so- knowledging that slow, loitering
the aircrew and related support sys- phisticated. But in this role, the platforms such as Predator and
tems. In addition, the lack of an air- UCAV will have to compete against Global Hawk are well suited to be-
crew makes the UCAV desirable for missiles. This will come down to life- nign air defense environments. How-
use in international crises where the cycle costs. Is it cheaper to deploy a ever, should the air defense environ-
loss or capture of a pilot would be po- $50-75 million UCAV with an ex- ment turn hot, a fast air vehicle capa-
litically unacceptable. Finally, pected survivability of 15 missions ble of penetrating and surviving air
stealthy UCAVs will be more suita- and high maintenance costs, or to de- defenses would be needed. This was
ble to use in a more threatening air ploy 50-75 $1 million Tomahawk the catalyst behind the EADS-Ger-
defense environment than the benign cruise missiles with relatively low many Barrakuda demonstrator, a pro-
environment over Iraq and Afghani- maintenance costs? This tradeoff will gram which has elicited little or no
stan. be the center of much of the future serious attention. The US Air Force
Although advanced concept debate, assuming UCAV technology is examining similar high sub-sonic,
demonstrations of tactical UCAVs proves practical and affordable. In stealthy penetrator UAVs such as the
will take place in the next decade in view of recent experiences with tac- Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel,
the United States, their actual deploy- tical reconnaissance UAVs, this can- but there is practically no open-
ment is problematic. A brief exami- not be lightly assumed. source information on the scale of
nation of the difficulties the US has Teal Group believes that UCAV their production. Until these pro-
faced in fielding even simple tactical production will be quite small in the grams begin to emerge from the
UAVs should help provide a more forecast period. Our assumption is “black world”, their role in the over-
sober perspective on the practical ob- that the USAF is developing a all UAV market will be very difficult
stacles to such a system. The chal- stealthy strike UCAV to replace the to determine. The US Navy is at-
lenge to the tactical UCAV will come F-117 strike fighter and that it will tempting to address these issues with
from three directions: human, mis- enter production in the forecast pe- its new UCLASS program.
sile, and arms control politics. It re- riod. We expect that “hunter-killer”
mains to be seen when it will be pos- UAVs such as MQ-9A Reaper will New Directions
sible to design and field an integrated prosper, but forecasts for these UAVs A variety of new missions and
computer, flight control, and electro- are included under the relevant UAV new technologies have been sug-
optical sensing system that is as headings since they are based on ex- gested for military UAVs. These are
small, intelligent, and versatile as a isting UAV airframes. worth a brief mention even though
human pilot. There is no existing we are not yet including some of
combination of computers and sen- Future Perils these types in the forecast for reasons
sors of similar size that can duplicate US tactical UAV development of elucidated below.
a pilot under a wide range of real life the current generation has exploited The US Marine Corps has been pi-
conditions. For example, there is lit- the relatively benign air defense en- oneering the use of UAVs for the de-
tle doubt that a UCAV can be built to vironment of the current operating livery of cargo. Demonstrations of
deliver guided weapons against a tar- theaters in Afghanistan and Iraq. In cargo UAVs using an unmanned ver-
get. But what happens when the essence, enemy air defense is basi- sion of the Kaman K-MAX helicop-
UCAV is threatened by hostile fight- cally non-existent except in the crud- ter since November 2011. This re-
ers? Is it simply a sitting duck? This est sense, small arms fire. What hap- quirement was closely tied to the cir-
was certainly the case in Kosovo pens when current UAVs are thrust cumstances in Afghanistan, espe-
where a number of UAVs were shot into a more dangerous air defense en- cially the hazard of moving supplies
down by Serbian helicopters flying vironment? The UAVs of the current by road due to the persistent IED
alongside and attacking them with generation are sitting ducks for exist- threat. It remains to be seen whether
simple door-mounted machine guns. ing missile-based air defense sys- dedicated cargo UAVs will win
Unlike reconnaissance missions over tems, since they are large, slow-mov- much support in other tactical scenar-
a predetermined objective, a fighter ing, and visible to radar. They are ex- ios, and this forecast does not include
tremely vulnerable to enemy fighters,
2014 Edition World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems ©Teal Group CorporationExecutive Overview Page 11
future UAVs in this category due to agencies. The main drawback at the UAVs launched from ground plat-
skepticism over this application. moment is a relatively short endur- forms such as tanks. Some of these
Numerically, mini-UAVs have ance of about 30 minutes due to the are simply a variation of traditional
represented the fastest growing seg- limitations of existing battery tech- mini-UAVs. Others have a configu-
ment of the UAV market in terms of nology. Attempts to build similar ration better suited to such launch
units, though not in dollar terms. hovering UAVs with gasoline en- conditions such as a folded air vehi-
Even though these small UAVs are gines such as the RQ-16 T-Hawk cle within a launch tube that unfolds
limited in their sensors and tend to have not been especially successful its wings and prop after exiting the
offer only a "soda-straw" view, they due to the noise levels. Further ad- tube. These parasitic UAVs are in-
are extremely versatile since they can vances in battery technology may ex- tended for short-term reconnais-
be readily used by small combat units tend the endurance of these mini- sance, and in most cases are expend-
with little need to coordinate their UAVs. However, another key break- able. In this respect, they are more
flights with local air traffic control. through is likely to come in the form like a munition than a conventional
Some infantry officers suggest they of commercialization of the technol- UAV and at the moment we are not
will become as ubiquitous as binocu- ogy into the mass-market. Hobby including them in the forecast due to
lars. One of the most likely growth firms are already starting to produce this.
areas for mini-UAVS is in the area of such air vehicles for consumers, and Besides armed UAVs, there is a
"quad-copter" UAVs. Most military it is likely that mass market produc- growing assortment of pseudo-armed
mini-UAVs at the moment are based tion will substantially drive down the UAVs. These are primarily missiles
on electric-powered Styrofoam air- unit costs of such systems. Current or loitering munitions that are based
craft. The "quad-copter" configura- military systems cost in the range of on UAV technology. A good exam-
tions are small air vehicles with four $65,000 to $100,000 including four ple is the AeroVironment Switch-
small lift rotors, one on each corner. air vehicles and the hand-held GCS. blade. Although the hardware is
These offer a more stable platform Commercialization of the technology based on mini-UAV technology, the
than more conventional single rotor could drastically reduce the unit cost. mission is different since the air ve-
mini-helicopters. The main attraction It is quite possible that these will be- hicle is primarily intended for a one-
of this class of mini-UAVs is that come ubiquitous over the next dec- way mission and is therefore a mis-
they offer "hover-and-stare" capabil- ade as a standard means of reconnais- sile. Some of these loitering muni-
ity. They can take up position over an sance for infantry squads. Production tions have a nominal "return-to-base"
area and continue to monitor it for the of winged mini-UAVs such as the mode, but their primary role is to act
duration of flight. Early quad-copters RQ-11 Raven have been close to ten- as a surface-to-surface missile. There
took considerable skill to pilot, but thousand, but inexpensive quad-cop- are larger examples of this type of
the current generation are fitted with ters could number in the hundreds of technology such as the Israeli Harop,
a simple inertial measurement unit to thousands. We have not included a and the British Fire Shadow. Finally,
keep them stable. The operator forecast of these here since they fall some non-state groups have adapted
simply indicates the flight path of the below our cost threshold. UAVs into crude cruise missiles by
mission and does not actually fly the A number of firms are developing fitting them with a warhead. Hezbol-
air vehicle with joysticks. "parasite" UAVs, that is, small lah on a number of occasions has at-
These quad-copters are already on UAVs that can be launched from tempted to use small UAVs fitted
the market such as the Datron Scout other platforms. This includes UAVs with a warhead.
and they have already been pur- launched from other UAVs, UAVs
chased by military and government launched from helicopters, and
Civil Government and Commercial UAVs
The market for UAVs outside of The long-term issue is whether growth as access to national airspace
the military is extremely small at the UAVs might blossom in the civil avi- becomes more accessible.
moment, but promises to be one of ation market, matching or exceeding To begin with, it is helpful to dis-
the fastest growing segments in the the scope of military UAVs. While tinguish at least three elements of the
next decade. As airspace opens this is an intriguing issue, this study civil UAV market:
worldwide over the next 10 years, is limited to the likely growth of the
UAVs increasingly will be used in a market over the next decade. Within Government UAVs for uses rang-
variety of new applications in border this time frame, Teal Group believes ing from border security to law en-
patrol, law enforcement, agriculture, that the civil market will remain forcement to research on wildlife.
mapping, and natural resources. small but begin to experience rapid
©Teal Group Corporation World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems 2014 EditionPage 12 Executive Overview
Commercial UAVs for uses in- will be required for their systems. If operate in national airspace in Eu-
cluding agriculture, mapping, and it is required, it could raise the cost of rope or the United States anytime
natural resource extraction support. those systems and undermine their soon.
viability. There also are concerns A 2010 report by the Congres-
Hobbyist UAVs which are mass about the technological maturity of sional Research Service on the De-
produced around the world for low sense and avoid technology although partment of Homeland Security’s
end UAV applications. manufacturers generally seem to Predator UAVs found that “the costs
Of these categories, the third will think it will be available. Even so, the of operating a UAV are more than
be largely ignored in this study as it cost of the technology will also be double the costs of operating a
involves relatively low cost systems critical in determining the viability of manned aircraft.” This is because
ranging from several hundred to sev- commercial systems. UAVs require a significant amount
eral thousand dollars. While these The debate over safety is also of logistical support and specialized
systems may have commercial appli- coming to the fore over the possible operator and maintenance training.
cations such as providing support for spoofing of UAVs. In July 2012, a Operating one UAV requires a crew
real estate agents trying to market University of Texas team was able to of up to 20 support personnel. Nor
properties, generally they go to a dif- take control of a UAV and send it off did the relevant performance justify
ferent market from the higher cost, course using a GPS spoofing device that cost. “The use of UAVs has re-
professional UAVs addressed in this that cost less than $1,000. While that sulted in fewer alien apprehensions
study. can be remedied, fixes will add to the per flight hour than the use of
Teal Group believes that non-mil- cost of UAS. It is not yet clear manned aircraft,” the report noted.
itary government use of UAVs will whether or how the FAA or other As new systems are developed
be the largest single portion of the agency would deal with that potential with more focus on affordability, the
civil UAV market over the next dec- threat. economics of using medium-altitude,
ade due to easier access to airspace The debate over privacy will also long-endurance and high-altitude,
for governmental UAVs as well as have a direct impact on the use and long-endurance UAVs may change
the much higher value of those UAVs applicability of UAS. There is con- in the future particularly as airspace
compared to the small/mini UAVs siderable sensitivity on the issue and opens over time.
that will dominate the commercial it could lead national, state and local The reliability of systems will be
market. governments to enact laws that a serious concern for commercial us-
would undermine the efficacy of ers even if airspace restrictions are
Major Uncertainties about Civil UAS. Some US localities have actu- lifted. They will be reluctant to use
Government/Commercial Mar- ally imposed a ban on the use of the systems until there is little risk of a
ket Development systems or imposed restrictions or crash that would destroy the payload,
The rapidity and degree to which bans on their use by law enforce- particularly with larger more costly
the civil/commercial market devel- ment. UAVs, or that might cause greater
ops will depend on several factors The economics of UAS will also damage to the air vehicle or targets
that are yet to be determined. be a critical factor. It is clear that in- on the ground. Larger companies
Liberalized rules for UAV access expensive UAS systems in the mini may also be reluctant to expose them-
to national airspace worldwide will and small range are often economi- selves to liability that would come
be critical. The degree to which cally viable commercially. They can with such a loss.
UAVs are allowed be freely used will do missions that would be considera- As a result, the systems with the
directly affect the economics. In the bly more expensive using a manned most commercial viability for the
United States, the current Certifica- aircraft. In some cases, they can pre- first five years after liberalization of
tion of Authorization (CoA) process vent a pilot from going in harm’s way airspace will be mini and small
is extremely time-consuming and im- to execute that mission. UAVs.
practical. Currently unmanned sys- As the size of the UAV grows, its Many of these systems are new
tems need to be transported by cost-effectiveness appears to decline. and relatively untested. They will
ground to the areas at which they to Systems like the Shadow 200, take time to develop a safety record
be used. For unmanned aerial sys- Reaper, and Global Hawk are simply that insurance companies and users
tems (UAS) to be economically fea- too expensive to have commercial are able to assess. As a result, insur-
sible, there is a need to move to a sig- applications at this point. They have ance costs initially will be high. Re-
nificantly freer use of UAS. high procurement costs, high operat- ducing those costs will require the es-
Sense and avoid technology may ing costs and high cost of telemetry. tablishment of safety records for
be another hurdle. Some UAV man- Nor are they likely to be permitted to UAVs.
ufacturers are very concerned about A study by NASA’s Civil UAV
whether sense and avoid technology Assessment team came to similar
2014 Edition World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems ©Teal Group CorporationExecutive Overview Page 13
conclusions in a study released in there will be an incremental approach The six test sites that the FAA was
August 2006. “A major reduction in that could result in the larger systems supposed to have established by Au-
operating cost is necessary if this being integrated into airspace gradu- gust 2012 were finally announced in
class of vehicles is to become a sig- ally in a process likely to take five to December 2013. The test sites are to
nificant part of the air space,” accord- 10 years. be used to do flights and conduct the
ing to the study. The study noted that research necessary to safely integrate
“metrics such as cost-per-hour for FAA Movement in Allowing US UAVs into national airspace.
UAV use are often misleading in that Commercial UAS Operations There are also extraneous factors
they address only a portion of the to- The FAA is taking measured steps that could affect the speed with
tal cost, i.e., recurring costs of actu- toward allowing commercial opera- which commercial markets develop.
ally flying the vehicle.” tions of UAS in national airspace alt- Serious safety problems or misuse of
Obviously, law enforcement and hough the pace is now quickening. the systems to infringe on people’s
public safety will be an important The first step came with the privacy could result in rules that
market and one of the first to develop FAA’s issuance of type certificates in would undercut development of the
outside of the federal government the restricted category to the Boeing market.
since it will be an early beneficiary of Insitu ScanEagle and AeroViron-
liberalization of air safety rules. ment Puma AE small unmanned air- Progress in International Air-
There will be other markets in agri- craft systems in July 2013. That space Access
culture, oil and gas and mapping. would allow both companies to begin A number of countries are well
UAS commercial operations in the ahead of the United States in provid-
The FAA and Progress in Arctic. ing access to their airspace for com-
Opening National Airspace Before that, private companies re- mercial UAV operations.
The opening of US airspace prom- quired a special experimental air- Many European countries, in par-
ises to be a long, arduous process. worthiness certificate that would pro- ticular, are well ahead of the United
The FAA is adopting a cautious, hibit them from being used commer- States. Generally regulations for
phased approach rather than the cially. UAVs less than 150 kilograms are
faster pace pushed by the aerospace Diversified oil major ConocoPhil- being handled by individual Euro-
industry. lips then began to fly the catapult- pean Union nations. Regulations for
As a result, the timing of the de- launched ScanEagle off the Alaska larger ones are expected to be han-
velopment of US commercial mar- coast in international waters. It was dled by the European Commission.
kets remains uncertain. seeking to observe wildlife and pro- Eventually the European Commis-
Although Congress set September vide support for any emergency re- sion may take on the role of harmo-
2015 as the date for full integration of quirements for oil spill monitoring. nization of the national requirements
UAS into US airspace, it is clear that The FAA followed its moves to to allow a free flow of services across
the FAA will not meet that date. open up the Arctic to commercial borders within the European Union.
Small UAS, defined as being un- UAS operations with the June 2014 United Kingdom, France, Italy,
der 55 pounds, will be the first step in grant of the first-ever over-land re- Germany, Netherlands, Sweden,
integrating unmanned systems into stricted type certificate. AeroViron- Czech Republic, Norway and Swit-
the airspace. Not only is that the mar- ment Puma AE UAS will be allowed zerland are all allowing flights of
ket with the most immediate com- to operate in day-to-day operations at small UAS in their airspace for com-
mercial viability, but that is also the BP Exploration (Alaska)-oper- mercial operations. These are gener-
where the FAA is focusing the first ated Prudhoe Bay oil field on ally restricted to line-of-sight opera-
steps of its phased approach to open- Alaska’s North Slope, the largest oil tions of mini UAVs. Still, this is al-
ing US airspace. field in North America. lowing the creation of a UAS indus-
The FAA is likely to put out a no- As a next step, FAA is considering try in Europe.
tice of proposed rulemaking by late a streamlined approval process for For example, United Kingdom
2014 for small UAS. There will be a flights of small UAVs for filmmak- legislation established four years ago
period of public comment that will ing, utilities inspection, agriculture, allows UAS commercial operations
then last 18 months. That can be ex- and other low-risk operations. The for systems up to 20 kilograms. As of
tended in the event, as expected, that approval of a process for limited ap- mid-2014, some 230 operators were
the rule is contentious. Powerful lob- plications for small UAVs could approved to work under the regula-
bying groups are lined up on both speed up the development of the tions.
sides of the issue. commercial market in the United More broadly, as many as 2,000
It remains unclear exactly how States. commercial UAV operators are now
much the process will be delayed for working in Europe. These are gener-
larger systems. What is clear is that ally very small companies working to
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