Examining Sociospatial Polarization in Halifax: What Scale Matters? - Jill Grant
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Examining Sociospatial Polarization in Halifax: What Scale Matters? Victoria Prouse PLAN6000 Independent Project Dalhousie University School of Planning Supervisor: Dr. Jill Grant Course Instructor: Farhana Ferdous December 2013
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Generous funding support for this project was provided by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada through a Joseph Armand Bombardier Graduate Scholarship (Master’s). This research contributes to the Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership (NCRP), led by Dr. David Hulchanski of the University of Toronto. The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada also provides funding for the NCRP and its initiatives. I am exceedingly grateful for Dr. Jill Grant’s guidance and feedback throughout this project, and throughout the Master of Planning Program. I am thankful for Dr. Howard Ramos’ assistance with the quantitative components of the study. I extend much appreciation to Siobhan Witherbee and Kirk Brewer for creating GIS maps to show my data, and to Paul Shakotko’s and Dr. Martha Radice’s valuable insight that influenced the conceptual foundation for this project. Finally, I am appreciative of my parents’ endless love and support in all my endeavours. I am deeply indebted to my grandmother, Marilyn Coffman, for her indispensible direction with assignments throughout my university career. I would also like to thank Aron Coccimiglio for his constant encouragement throughout this project. ii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Due to privacy concerns, individual-‐level census data is unavailable for public use. Aggregated census data – compiled at the census tract and dissemination area levels – is used as a proxy to portray socioeconomic conditions within these administrative units. Literature shows that despite widespread usage of aggregated census data, researchers and policymakers fail to critically assess the limitations and embedded assumptions of this method. How does the aggregation of data to arbitrarily defined geographic units affect the socioeconomic portrait they produce? My research elaborates on findings from Prouse et al’s (Forthcoming) report for the Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership (NCRP) exploring Halifax’s geography of income inequality and polarization. The report revealed mixed trends in the overall CMA, with no strong evidence of increasing income polarization at the census tract level. In many cases, trends were ambiguous and diverged from hypotheses derived from local understandings of the lived reality of these spaces. Though Halifax is consistently portrayed in literature as a relatively egalitarian city compared to larger Canadian CMAs, observed circumstances – including concentrated poverty in Halifax’s public housing projects and gentrification in the North End – suggest otherwise. Prouse et al hypothesized that the study parameters – using census tracts as the units of analyses – could explain discrepancies between census data indicators and qualitative observations of socioeconomic conditions. Hence, in this study, I explore the dynamics and nature of sociospatial polarization at the dissemination area level. In particular, I sought to determine whether greater evidence of sociospatial polarization is evident at the DA level than at the CT level: thus determining which scale is more appropriate to observe Halifax’s socioeconomic conditions. Using the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) as a theoretical lens, I analyzed differences between conditions at the CT and DA levels. The MAUP is a phenomenon occurring when census data is collected for individuals but is reported for administrative units possessing modifiable boundaries. Data aggregation mutes extreme values and obscures diverse socioeconomic conditions occurring within these units. The MAUP is a particular issue for smaller municipalities and rural areas, since administrative units are formed on a larger scale than in big cities with higher population densities. Hence, homogeneous clusters of individuals often form at a scale smaller than the administrative unit boundaries, causing diverse clusters of socioeconomic conditions to form within them1. I conducted statistical and spatial analyses on ten socioeconomic indicators, comparing their characteristics, relationships, and spatial patterning at the CT and DA levels. Descriptive statistics showed that for all indicators, DA level data is more dispersed from the CMA average than at the CT level; many DAs have extreme values that are muted when these values are aggregated with adjacent DAs to form CTs. 1 Lebel, A., R. Pampalon, and P. Villeneuve. 2007. A multi-‐perspective approach for defining neighbourhood units in the context of a study on health inequalities for the Quebec City region. International Journal of Health Geographers iii
Percentages of visible minorities across DAs had the greatest difference in dispersion of all indicators with DA level proportions being 81% more dispersed than at the CT level. I also compared differences in relationships between indicators using Pearson’s Bivariate Correlations and Ordinary Least Squares Regression tests. Results from these tests were consistent with those in literature, thus affirming the influence of the MAUP on Halifax’s census data. At the CT level, we obtain stronger correlations between variables and a more robust regression model than at the DA level. The muted CT values follow more consistent trends than engendered by the extreme outliers at the DA level where it becomes more difficult to generalize relationships with definitive conclusions. However, the tests show a more complex portrait of socioeconomic conditions and relationships at the DA level; more relationships are deemed ‘statistically significant’ – we can confidently ascertain a linear relationship exists between them – than at the CT level. I observed similar trends in the spatial analysis. Stronger dichotomies between contrasting conditions emerged in the CT level maps, with categories split at a large scale. The DA level maps show a diverse mosaic with DAs displaying adjacent contrasting socioeconomic conditions. At the DA level, we observe polarized adjacencies: spatially proximal concentrated clusters of contrasting conditions. Polarized adjacencies are obscured when the extreme DA values are combined to create values for the overall CT. Sociospatial polarization emerges much more frequently through polarized adjacencies at the DA level. Though the CT and DA level values have relatively similar frequency distributions across indicators, the extreme cases at the DA level are crucial determinants of the nature and severity of Halifax’s sociospatial polarization. They contribute to polarized conditions in many of the city’s CTs, causing areas exhibiting extreme deprivation and poor socioeconomic conditions to appear less severe. Thus, the CT model is suitable for economists and statisticians who seek a stronger general model with a more parsimonious causal structure, or for the NCRP researchers wishing to derive general comparative paradigms for neighbourhood change. However, for the purposes of policymakers, scholars, and practitioners concerned with socioeconomic inequality and polarization trends, polarization is portrayed much more intricately through the DA level. All indicators, their relationships with each other, and their spatial manifestations are recognized, even if their impact is relatively small when tests are conducted for the CMA as a whole. When we restrict analysis to conditions within the CT, these weaker relationships encourage extreme polarized adjacencies between DAs and have significant implications on the lived experiences of residents. Therefore, researchers and policymakers must be wary of the embedded limitations of using administrative unit data to represent individual-‐level conditions. In urban policy, census data is used for informing policy changes, forecasting growth projections, allocating community infrastructure, amenities, and services, and creating sustainable municipal visions for the future. Misrepresentation of these data yields deleterious consequences, including the misallocation of services. Findings emphasize the importance of robust data collection measures for small geographic units. iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................... 1 2.0 Background .......................................................................................... 4 2.1 Socioeconomic Conditions in Canadian Cities: Situating Halifax in the Literature ................................................................. 4 2.2 Conceptualizing “Neighbourhood” ................................................ 6 2.3 Neighbourhood Scale and the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) ......................................................................................... 7 2.4 Sociospatial Polarization and its Micro-‐Determinants .................. 10 2.5 Neighbourhood Polarization and the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem ........................................................................................ 11 2.6 CMA Size and the MAUP ................................................................ 12 2.7 Socioeconomic Trends in Halifax: A Media Review ....................... 13 3.0 Purpose ................................................................................................ 14 3.1 Research Questions ...................................................................... 15 4.0 Method ................................................................................................ 15 4.1 Study Rationale .............................................................................. 15 4.1.1 Study Concept .............................................................. 15 4.2 Data Organization .......................................................................... 16 4.2.1 Data Collection ............................................................. 16 4.2.2 Data Selection .............................................................. 16 4.2.3 Data Preparation .......................................................... 18 4.2.3.1 Statistical Analysis ............................................ 18 4.2.3.2 Spatial Analysis ................................................ 18 4.3 Data Analysis ................................................................................. 18 4.3.1 Statistical Analysis ........................................................ 18 4.3.1.1 Descriptive Statistics ........................................ 18 4.3.1.2 Pearson’s Bivariate Correlation ....................... 18 4.3.1.3 Ordinary Least Squares Regression .................. 19 4.3.2 Spatial Analysis ............................................................ 19 5.0 Findings ................................................................................................ 20 5.1 Statistical Analysis ......................................................................... 20 5.1.1 Descriptive Statistics .................................................... 20 5.1.2 Pearson’s Bivariate Correlation ................................... 22 5.1.3 Ordinary Least Squares Regression .............................. 25 5.2 Spatial Analysis .............................................................................. 26 5.2.1 Description of Spatial Trends ....................................... 48 5.2.1.1 Relative proportion of individuals classified as low-‐income (LICO) ............................................................... 48 5.2.1.2 Relative employment rate for residents over 15 (EMPLOY) 5.2.1.3 Relative proportion of individuals over 25 without a high school diploma (NOHSD) .................................. 48 v
5.2.1.4 Relative average individual income for residents over 15 (AVGINC) .......................................................... 49 5.2.1.5 Relative proportion of residents over 15 separated, divorced, or widowed (SDW) ........................... 49 5.2.1.6 Relative proportion of persons living alone (PLA) ………………………………………………………………………49 5.2.1.7 Relative proportion of lone-‐parent families (LPF) ………………………………………………………………………50 5.2.1.8 Relative proportion of visible minorities (VM) ………………………………………………………………………50 5.2.1.9 Relative proportion of owned private dwellings (OWNED) ………………………………………………………………………50 5.2.1.10 Relative dwelling density (DWELDENS) ………………………………………………………………………50 6.0 Discussion ............................................................................................ 51 6.1 Scale Discrepancies and the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem ........ 51 6.2 Understanding the nature and dynamics of sociospatial polarization in Halifax ....................................................................................................... 52 6.2.1 Case Studies of Polarized Dissemination Areas within Census Tracts ........................................................................... 57 6.2.1.1 Census Tract 10 ................................................ 57 6.2.1.2 Census Tract 108 .............................................. 58 6.2.1.3 Census Tract 21 ................................................ 59 6.2.1.4 Census Tract 25.01 ........................................... 60 6.2.1.5 Census Tract 114 .............................................. 61 7.0 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 63 Works Cited ............................................................................................... 66 vi
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Unless otherwise specified, tables and figures are created by the author. Reference Table of Socioeconomic Indicators ................................................ vii 1.1 Settlement Density of Halifax Regional Municipality, 2012 ...................... 1 1.2 Neighbourhood Map of Halifax CMA core ............................................... 2 1.3 Distribution of Census Tracts by Income Category of Individuals ages 15 and over, 1970-‐2010 .................................................................................................. 3 1.4 Change in Census Tract Average Individual Income, 1980-‐2010 ............... 3 2.1 Gini Coefficient Values for NCRP Study Cities ........................................... 5 2.2 Testing for the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem: Methodological Approaches in the Literature ......................................................................................................... 9 4.1 Reference Table of Socioeconomic Indicators .......................................... 17 5.1 Descriptive Statistics by Scale .................................................................... 20 5.2 CT Level Pearson’s Bivariate Correlation Coefficients ............................... 22 5.3 DA Level Pearson’s Bivariate Correlation Coefficients .............................. 22 5.4 Comparing Linear Relationships between Proportion of Low-‐Income Residents and Percentage of Owned Dwellings at the CT and DA Level ................................ 23 5.5 Comparing LICO Bivariate Correlation Coefficients at CT and DA Level .... 24 5.6 OLS Regression of LICO on Material, Social, and Physical Characteristics . 25 5.7 Beta Coefficients of Independent Variables at CT and DA Level for OLS Regression with Y=LICO ............................................................................................ 26 5.8 Relative Proportion of Low-‐Income Residents by CT, 2006 ...................... 28 5.9 Relative Proportion of Low-‐Income Residents by DA, 2006 ...................... 29 5.10 Relative Employment Rate by CT, 2006 ................................................... 30 5.11 Relative Employment Rate by DA, 2006 .................................................. 31 5.12 Relative Proportion of Residents Without a High School Diploma by CT, 2006 ......................................................................................................................... 32 5.13 Relative Proportion of Residents Without a High School Diploma by DA, 2006 ......................................................................................................................... 33 5.14 Relative Average Individual Income by CT, 2006 ..................................... 34 5.15 Relative Average Individual Income by DA, 2006 .................................... 35 5.16 Relative Proportion of Individuals Separated, Divorced, or Widowed by CT, 2006 ......................................................................................................................... 36 5.17 Relative Proportion of Individuals Separated, Divorced, or Widowed by DA, 2006 ......................................................................................................................... 37 5.18 Relative Proportion of Individuals Living Alone by CT, 2006 ................... 38 5.19 Relative Proportion of Individuals Living Alone by DA, 2006 .................. 39 5.20 Relative Proportion of Lone Parent Families by CT, 2006 ....................... 40 5.21 Relative Proportion of Lone Parent Families by DA, 2006 ....................... 41 5.22 Relative Proportion of Visible Minorities by CT, 2006 ........................... 42 5.23 Relative Proportion of Visible Minorities by DA, 2006 ............................ 43 5.24 Relative Proportion of Owned Dwellings by CT, 2006 ............................. 44 vii
5.25 Relative Proportion of Owned Dwellings by DA, 2006 ............................ 45 5.26 Relative Dwelling Density by CT, 2006 .................................................... 46 5.27 Relative Dwelling Density by DA, 2006 .................................................... 47 6.1 Relative Proportions of Socioeconomic Indicators at CT Level ................. 53 6.2 Relative Proportions of Socioeconomic Indicators at DA Level ................. 53 6.3 Proportion of Visible Minority Residents in 2005 ...................................... 55 6.4 DA Indicator Values in Census Tract 10 ..................................................... 57 6.5 DA Indicator Values in Census Tract 108 ................................................... 58 6.6 DA Indicator Values in Census Tract 21 ..................................................... 59 6.7 DA Indicator Values in Census Tract 25.01 ................................................ 60 6.8 DA Indicator Values in Census Tract 114 ................................................... 61 Reference Table of Socioeconomic Indicator Acronyms Component Indicator Description Material LICO Percentage of individuals classified as low-‐income (after tax) NOHSD Percentage of individuals over 25 without a high school diploma EMPLOY Employment rate for individuals ages 15 and over AVGINC Average individual income for individuals ages 15 and over Social SDW Percentage of individuals classified as separated, divorced, or widowed PLA Percentage of individuals not in census families living alone LPF Percentage of economic families classified as single parent VM Percentage of individuals classified as a visible minority Structural OWNED Percentage of private dwellings that are owned DWELDENS Dwelling density (total number of private dwellings divided by total land area in square kilometers) Title Page Image Source: Google Maps, 2012 viii
“The ultimate question is whether a geographical area is an entity possessing traits, or merely one characteristic of a trait itself” (Gelhke and Biehl, 1934, 170) 1.0 INTRODUCTION This report is part of a larger study on neighbourhood change across Canada. The “Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership” (NCRP) examines changing neighbourhood trends in income inequality and polarization in six Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs): Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Montréal, and Halifax Regional Municipality. In 2010, the NCRP released the Three Cities of Toronto, a report documenting patterns of sociospatial polarization in the city from 1970 to 2005. Using time-‐series analysis of census data indicators – age, household structure, immigrant, ethnicity, income, employment, and housing (Hulchanski, 2011) – the report illustrates the changing socioeconomic welfare of neighbourhoods throughout this 35-‐year period. The report relies on what they define as the “Three Cities” framework to explain neighbourhood change on a more general level, where each “city” represents census tracts that are experiencing either increasing, decreasing, or stable income trajectories. In 2013, using the same methodology, the Halifax research team – comprised of academics and community stakeholders – launched a study of the Halifax CMA (Prouse et al, Forthcoming). Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) is the largest city in Atlantic Canada, with a population of 413 700 (Statistics Canada, 2012). In 1996, the City of Halifax amalgamated with the City of Dartmouth, Town of Bedford, and Figure 1.1 Settlement Density of Halifax Regional Municipality, 2012, Calculated Halifax County. from HRM Civic Address Point Data (Witherbee, 2013, in Prouse et al, Forthcoming) Figure 1.1 1
illustrates the disparity in settlement patterns throughout the region. HRM is remarkably diverse, comprised of over 200 distinct communities of urban, suburban, and rural character. Figure 1.2 shows some of Halifax’s neighbourhoods. Figure 1.2 Neighbourhood map of Halifax Census Metropolitan Area core (Witherbee, 2013) Study findings (See Figure 1.3 and 1.4) revealed mixed trends in the CMA overall, with no strong evidence of increasing income polarization at census tract level. Equally mixed findings emerged through analysis of Halifax through the “Three Cities” paradigm, as Halifax’s census tracts showed surprisingly slight changes in income levels from 1980 to 2010. In many cases, trends were ambiguous and diverged from hypotheses derived from local understandings of the lived reality of these spaces. 2
Figure 1.3 Distribution of Census Tracts by Income Category of Individuals ages 15 and over, 1970-‐2010 (Prouse et al, Forthcoming) Figure 1.4 Change in Census Tract Average Individual Income, 1980-‐2010 (Cities Centre, 2013; in Prouse et al, Forthcoming) 3
The research team speculated whether the parameters of the study – specifically, census tracts as the units of analyses– were responsible for discrepancies between study findings and observations of on-‐the-‐ground conditions. The NCRP uses census tracts as proxies for neighbourhoods for all CMAs included in the study. The Halifax research team identified ambiguous census tract (CT) level data as an indicator that this geographic unit is an unsuitable lens through which to interpret neighbourhood change in smaller municipalities like Halifax. The team theorized CT level findings do not accurately reflect on-‐the-‐ground conditions in Halifax’s neighbourhoods. Rather, they suggest a moderated portrait of Halifax’s geography of income created by data smoothing from aggregation of more diverse conditions visible at a finer scale. Further investigation is required to determine if the scale of aggregation of census data yields a crucial methodological limitation. Examining data at the CT level reveals very high-‐income census tracts clustered in the South End and in Bedford, and low-‐income census tracts grouped in the North End and Halifax’s postwar-‐era suburbs. Census tracts with average individual income levels consistent with the CMA average comprise the rest of HRM. However, contextual research of the lived reality of Halifax’s neighbourhoods challenges the legitimacy of this simple pattern. In Halifax, CT boundaries frequently encompass heterogeneous conditions – particularly in Halifax’s suburbs where census tracts are especially large and administrative boundaries lag behind contemporary patterns of population growth between census periods. How does this heterogeneity impact aggregated census data values for each CT? Prouse et al posit that dissemination area level analysis may reveal a more fine-‐grained, complex, and accurate portrait of Halifax’s geography of income inequality and polarization across neighbourhoods. The inconclusive findings engendered the following theoretical questions: how are neighbourhoods defined, and do neighbourhoods function at the same scale regardless of city size? 2.0 BACKGROUND 2.1 Socioeconomic Conditions in Canadian Neighbourhoods: Situating Halifax in the Literature Neighbourhoods are highly complex and peculiar entities. For more than a century, the study of these spaces and their trajectories has captivated and perplexed scholars – both in terms of socioeconomic and cultural transformations occurring within these spaces, and in creating theoretical parameters defining the neighbourhood unit itself. Framed through key themes, studies examining neighbourhood conditions and change in Canadian cities have expanded over the past thirty years. In the 1980s, research emerged examining cities through the lens of urban renewal – specifically inner city revitalization. Ley’s national studies on inner city revitalization (1988) and gentrification (1985) provide comparative, macro-‐level data on socioeconomic change in Canada’s large cities. Filion and Bunting (1990) examine change occurring in the older housing stock of large CMAs. Bourne (1982), Bunting (1984), Filion and Bunting (1990), and Millward and Bunting (1998; 1999) contributed to early Canadian neighbourhood 4
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