European CFO Survey A new wave - of optimism Spring 2021 - CFO Programme - Deloitte
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European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism Contents 01 Optimism – though much 06 Will inflation pick up? COVID harm remains Page 12 Page 05 02 Fresh hopes 07 Conclusion: a dynamic period ahead Page 06 Page 13 03 Turning the COVID page 08 The Deloitte European CFO Survey Page 07 Page 14 04 Different recovery patterns 09 Endnotes Page 09 Page 16 05 Wary and yet bold – investments 10 Contacts and hiring intentions Page 17 Page 11 02
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism Foreword 01 As part of our broader commitment to supporting business leaders across the globe in their strategic decision-making, we are pleased to 02 present the thirteenth edition of the Deloitte European CFO Survey. 03 Since 2015 the survey has given voice twice a year to about 1,500 Chief Financial Officers from across Europe. The report provides an overview of CFOs’ hiring and investment intentions, their views on critical business risks and strategic priorities, and the factors they currently consider vital for success. Due to its wide geographical reach, 04 the consistently high number of participants across a range of different industries, and the privileged viewpoint of CFOs, it provides insights into how European companies view the economic environment and how they are reacting to it. 05 Although the COVID-19 pandemic has yet to be overcome and European countries remain under lockdown, this edition of the survey uncovers a new sense of optimism. Many companies seem already to have turned the page on COVID and are now focusing on the post-pandemic reality. This is not true, however, for all companies. Much of the 06 ability of businesses to emerge from the crisis in a stronger position depends on their capacity to invest wisely – in people as well as in technology. The willingness to invest is indeed on the rise. But perhaps most vital of all is the ability to look further down the line and formulate a bold longer-term strategic vision. In this regard CFOs have an 07 important role to play, providing the information and tools that can enable companies to take sound decisions. We hope you find the views set out in the report bring an interesting dynamic to your discussions and trigger further debate. To discuss any specific aspects of the report, please contact one of our Deloitte leaders. 08 09 10 Rolf Epstein Leader CFO Program, Germany 03
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism 01 With strict lockdown measures still 02 in place across Europe, vaccines being distributed slowly in many 03 countries, and still high levels of new COVID-19 infections, it would be easy to be gloomy about 04 European economic prospects. But financial executives across 05 the continent take a quite different view, as the results 06 of the latest Deloitte European CFO survey reveal. 07 08 09 10 04
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism Optimism – though much COVID harm remains 01 Europe in March 2021 might not seem to have advanced much a year since COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic. Stringent policy measures to restrict people’s behaviour are largely still in place across the region. 02 03 The Oxford stringency index, a composite measure Figure 1. One year after the COVID-19 pandemic struck, Europe is yet to unlock. that records the strictness of lockdown policies Stringency index Mobility adopted, was only slightly below its level in April 2020 when Europe faced the first wave of the pandemic 90 10% 04 (Figure 1, left axis). According to Google’s mobility data, visits to retail and recreational locations (such 80 as restaurants, shopping centres or cinemas) and -10% movements in transport hubs (such as underground, 05 bus or train stations) were more than 40 per cent and 70 35 per cent below the pre-COVID level, respectively.1 -20% To some extent, Europeans are even less active than they were in March 2020 (Figure 1, right axis). Although 60 06 mass vaccination campaigns have begun everywhere, -30% 50 the pace of vaccine rollouts varies considerably, with most European countries lagging far behind the United 07 Kingdom in terms of coverage. 40 -40% 30 -50% 08 20 10 -60% 09 0 -70% Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 10 Stringency index Mobility Source: Deloitte’s calculations. Stringency Index: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index , data downloaded on April 7th, 2021. Mobility data: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/?hl=en , data downloaded on April 8th 2021. Average values of mobility data for visits to “retail/recreational activities” and “movements in transit stations” across all countries part of the European Economic Area (EEA) plus Russia, Switzerland and the UK. 05
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism Fresh hopes 01 The latest Deloitte European CFO survey reveals great levels of optimism across the region. In all the countries surveyed CFOs who feel more optimistic about their company’s financial prospects outnumber those who are less optimistic, so 02 that the net balance of sentiment is positive everywhere. 03 The overall share of respondents saying they feel less Europe’s CFOs also have high hopes when looking at Figure 2. Business confidence is at its highest since optimistic has more than halved compared to the the next 12 months. Seventy-seven percent of CFOs the beginning of the series. Compared to three months autumn edition, to an all-time low. At the same time, expect the revenues of their companies to increase – ago, how do you feel about the financial prospects for the share of respondents who feel optimistic further 25 percentage points more than in September. Only 11 your company?* 04 increased so that the net balance of sentiment per cent expect them to fall. Again, the improvement 70% is at its highest since the beginning of the series. in sentiment is common to all countries and all sectors The increase in optimism is more pronounced in surveyed. Similarly, expectations on the evolution countries outside the euro area and is led above all of operating margins have improved, reaching their 53% 50% 53% 05 43% by the upbeat mood of CFOs in the UK, where a net highest since 2015. 38% 38% 77 percent of respondents feel more optimistic 35% 33% 25% 25% 26% 25% 24% than three months ago – the highest level across This steep rebound in sentiment might, however, all countries. be considered almost a natural reaction. The dive 18% 19% 06 10% suffered as the global pandemic hit was extremely The improvement in business confidence is evident deep. And despite proceeding at a slower pace 0% too when looking at the results across different than in other advanced economies, the vaccination 9% 07 industries. Even in sectors hit hard by the pandemic, campaign is advancing and indeed accelerating in all -18% 13% 11% 12% such as tourism and travel, and still much affected by European countries, bringing closer the prospect that 18% 23% 22% 25% 23% the restrictions in place, a vast majority of CFOs feel restrictions will be lifted in coming months. Particularly 26% 26% -35% more optimistic than three months ago and view the in those industries operating at rock-bottom levels 36% 08 future confidently. even cautious reopening represents an improvement. -53% It is also the case that companies have adapted to the new environment and found new ways to do business, thus becoming less hampered by restrictive measures. -70% Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring 66% Spring Spring 09 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 More optimistic Less optimistic Euro area (net balance) Countries outside the Euro area (net balance) 10 Source: Deloitte European CFO Survey, Spring 2015 – Spring 2021. Note: In Denmark, Norway, Italy and Poland the question specified a six-month period. *To explore the results country by country, please view the interactive graphs at www.deloitte.com/europeancfosurvey 06
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism Turning the COVID page 01 There are broader signs that many European companies have turned the page on the pandemic and are fully focusing on the emerging business environment. 02 Asked to assess which phase of the COVID crisis their Figure 3. A majority of European companies are already in the Thrive phase, focusing on the organisation has entered, two in three CFOs report post-pandemic future. What phase of the COVID-19 crisis is your organisation in?* 03 that they are already preparing for and shaping the post-pandemic future – what we define as the 5% “Thrive” phase. Only 14 per cent feel they are still in survival mode (Figure 3). 04 Although the positive mood is widespread the data 14% do reveal substantial differences across industries. 05 For example, more than 80 per cent of CFOs in life sciences and health care (LS&HC) consider their organisation to be already in the Thrive phase but only 38 per cent in tourism and travel, where more 06 than half the CFOs say they are still battling to ensure their company’s survival. 66% 07 08 09 Thrive – Preparing for and shaping the post-pandemic future Recover – Learning from the pandemic and recovering 16% Respond – Managing continuity and ensuring company survival 10 Not sure *To explore the results country by country, please view the Source: Deloitte European CFO Survey, Spring 2021. interactive graphs at www.deloitte.com/europeancfosurvey 07
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism 01 Interestingly, CFOs in retail are particularly bullish, Figure 4. The share of companies in the “Thrive” phase varies substantially across industries with 66 per cent reporting that they are in the What phase of the COVID-19 crisis is your organisation in?* (% “Preparing for and shaping the Thrive phase (Figure 4). By pushing consumers post-pandemic future”) for your company?* 02 towards online shopping the pandemic has forced retailers to invest in and expand their omnichannel capabilities, propelling them towards new ways to serve their clients. Life Science & Health Care 81% 03 Business & Prof. Services 76% Company size also affects the responses. In general, smaller companies (defined as those with annual Technology, Media 74% 04 revenues of up to €100 million) appear to be at an & Telecommunications earlier stage of the recovery, with 22 per cent of respondents reporting that they are still in the Financial Services 72% “Respond” phase. By contrast, only 6 per cent of 05 CFOs in large companies (defined as those with Retail 66% annual revenues of €1 billion or more) are in the same position. Consumer goods 64% 06 Energy & Resources 64% 07 Construction 63% Industrial Products & Services 61% 08 Automotive 57% Transport & Logistics 09 48% Tourism & Travel 38% 10 Source: Deloitte European CFO Survey, Spring 2021. *To explore the results country by country, please view the interactive graphs at www.deloitte.com/europeancfosurvey 08
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism Different recovery patterns 01 CFOs’ views on when their revenues will return to pre-pandemic levels also point to overall improvement. More than 40 per cent of CFOs report that they are already at or above pre-crisis levels – almost twice as many as last autumn, 02 when this figure was only 23 per cent. 03 There are, however, large differences between Figure 5. The larger the GDP drop in 2020, the lower the share of companies that are at or above countries, with, not surprisingly, a smaller share of the pre-pandemic level. CFOs reporting that they are already at or above their pre-pandemic level in economies that took a harder 70% Denmark 04 hit (Figure 5). For example, while almost two-thirds of Russia CFOs in Denmark and Russia say that their revenues Luxembourg are already at pre-crisis levels, less than 30 per cent do 60% 05 Share of companies already at or above pre-pandemic levels Poland Netherlands in Spain, Greece and the UK. Trendline 50% Norway Germany Iceland 06 40% Finland Austria Trendline Sweden Switzerland Italy 07 Spain 30% Greece United Kingdom Ireland Portugal 08 20% 10% 09 0% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% 10 Real GDP annual percentage change 2020 Source: Deloitte European CFO Survey, Spring 2021. GDP data: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2021. Annex Table 1.1.1 accessed on April 9th, 2021. 09
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism 01 Despite the general rise in optimism, some CFOs Figure 6. One-third of respondents don’t expect to get back to pre-pandemic levels until 2022 or later. see a long road to recovery. While, on average, Based on the information you have so far, when do you expect your company to return to a pre-crisis level of about a quarter of respondents expect to return revenue generation? 02 to the pre-crisis activity level by the end of 2021, 3% another quarter expect full recovery will have to wait 100% 6% until 2022, and about 10 per cent of respondents expect a full recovery even later than that (Figure 6). 03 24% 90% Expectations are particularly low in the tourism sector where no company has already returned to 80% 04 pre-pandemic levels and only 15 per cent expect to do so by the end of this year. A relative majority (40 per cent) expect full recovery by 2023. CFOs in 70% 24% the automotive sector are also more likely to see a 05 slow road to recovery, with only 19 per cent reporting that they are already at pre-crisis levels and another 60% 36 per cent expecting to bounce back by the end of 2021. At the other end of the spectrum, three-quarters 50% 06 of CFOs in the financial sector say they are already at pre-crisis levels or expect to be by the end of the year. 43% 40% 07 30% 08 20% 10% 09 0% Already at or above pre-crisis By the end of 2021 In 2022 In 2023 In 2024 or later 10 Source: Deloitte European CFO Survey, Spring 2021. Percentages calculated excluding respondents answering “No idea”. *To explore the results country by country, please view the interactive graphs at www.deloitte.com/europeancfosurvey 10
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism Wary and yet bold – investments and hiring intentions 01 As in the previous edition of the survey, CFOs remain concerned about a possible weakening in demand and about the overall state of the economy. CFOs see a little less uncertainty than in the autumn but a net balance of 65 per cent still 02 consider the current levels of economic and financial uncertainty as high or very high. 03 And yet their investment intentions have surged, with to over 3,000, representing over US$ 103 trillion in case in only one country. From an employment almost half the CFOs planning to increase their capital assets under management.3 The increasing pressure perspective, these positive signals on employment are expenditures (CAPEX) over the next 12 months, and only on companies to achieve sustainability goals means in welcome as the COVID-19 pandemic has taken its toll on 04 14 per cent planning a reduction. The last time that CFOs turn more investment in analytics, efficient equipment workers – especially women and young workers.4 showed a similar willingness to invest was in March 2018, and environmentally friendly buildings, to name just not only well before the pandemic, but also before trade a few. The combination of the two trends, digital and Figure 7. The outlook for capital expenditures turns positive. 05 wars and rising geopolitical tensions on the world stage environmental, means future investment levels are began to heighten uncertainty (Figure 7). likely to be higher than in the recent past. In your view how are capital expenditures for your company likely to change over the next 12 months? (% net balance)* Two trends may spur investment A brighter outlook for employment 40% 06 As the pandemic is far from over and there are plenty The outlook for employment also show clear signs of 32% 32% of risks to the economic recovery, companies’ plans to improvement. A net balance of 24 per cent of CFOs expect 30% 26% 27% 24% increase their CAPEX are a positive sign. This seems to increase their workforce over the next 12 months, with more than a rebound from last year’s depressed levels, 43 per cent expecting an increase against 19 per cent 20% 16% 17% 07 when many cut their spending plans. COVID-19 brought expecting a decrease. This represents not only the first 10% 8% 8% with it new demands related to workers’ and customers’ positive balance for employment in two years but also the -7% -35% -11% safety as well as a need to increase digital interaction. All of this requires investment in new equipment, second highest level since the beginning of the series in 2015. The outlook is positive across all industries – even 0% 08 automation and digital technologies. those worst hit by the pandemic. The hiring intentions of -10% CFOs in tourism and travel, for example, are among the -20% Perhaps surprisingly the pandemic has also increased most bullish, with a net balance of 36 per cent planning to 09 the attention paid to environmental issues, adding a add to their workforce. Companies in the “Thrive” phase -30% sense of urgency to efforts to shift away from fossil are more likely to be bullish on employment, but the net fuels. Major economies have announced plans to balance of intentions is positive too among companies -40% Autumn Autumn Autumn Autumn Autumn Autumn achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, providing a long- that are not yet out of the worst phase of the crisis. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 10 term signal on the direction of travel.2 The number of And in one-third of the countries surveyed CFOs investors who have signed up to the UN Principles for mention shortages of skilled labour as one of their top Source: Deloitte European CFO Survey, Autumn 2015 – Spring 2021. *To explore the results country by country, please view the interactive graphs at Responsible Investments (PRI) has further increased three concerns – whereas in the autumn that was the www.deloitte.com/europeancfosurvey 11
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism Will inflation pick up? 01 Talk of inflation has increased lately. The argument is that once vaccines are rolled out and economies reopen, cash-rich consumers will go on a spending spree. 02 At the same time production and transport Figure 9. CFOs’ expectations on the average inflation rate – countries in the Euro area and selected bottlenecks will prevent businesses from satisfying countries outside the Euro area. What do you think the inflation rate (for the Consumer Price Index) will be 03 the sudden surge in demand. Consequently prices in your country in 12 months’ time? will begin to rise. Furthermore, central banks’ balance sheets have expanded substantially in many countries, largely through purchases of rising government debt. 2.50% 04 It is argued that this monetary expansion and rise in government debt could cause a loss of confidence in economic and financial stability, in turn causing prices 2.00% 05 to spiral. The survey does reflect CFOs’ expectation that inflation will rise. Inflation expectations have risen 1.50% 06 in a majority of countries compared to the autumn. But they remain below the levels in spring 2019. Among countries in the Euro area, the expected inflation rate a year from now averages 1.37 per cent, 07 1.00% still well below the European Central Bank’s inflation target of 2 per cent. Thus, across Europe, financial executives do not seem to be planning for a high- inflation environment. 08 0.50% 09 0% Autumn Spring Autumn Spring Autumn Spring 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 10 Sweden Norway Switzerland Euro area Source: Deloitte European CFO Survey, Autumn 2015 – Spring 2021. *To explore the results country by country, please view the interactive graphs at www.deloitte.com/europeancfosurvey 12
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism Conclusion: a dynamic period ahead 01 The world has experienced 12 months like no other in living memory. The ingenuity, resourcefulness and resilience of individuals and 02 businesses has been tested. Workers have adapted to new ways of living and conducting business despite terrible losses, restricted 03 mobility and extraordinarily high levels of uncertainty. Many risks remain but recovery from the pandemic now Nor will the pandemic and the efforts to overcome prove New technologies 04 seems near at hand and CFOs across Europe are looking the only engine of change. Other issues, too, will shape to the future with confidence. coming years, from rising geopolitical tensions to growing awareness of social issues and the complexities of new and ways of working 05 The business environment as the world exits the pandemic, however, is quite different to how it was before working models and forms of interaction. have come into it. COVID-19, while obstructing business, has accelerated change. New technologies and ways of working have come There is much for business executives to analyse and assess, and much that they will need to do. An exciting play. Awareness of 06 into play. Awareness of environmental dangers has risen, and so has the willingness to address these risks. The period of innovation and dynamism appears to lie ahead. environmental dangers drive to leave behind fossil fuels has speeded up. has risen, and so has the 07 willingness to address these risks. The drive to 08 leave behind fossil fuels has speeded up. 09 10 13
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism The Deloitte European CFO Survey 01 Since 2015 Deloitte has conducted the European CFO survey, giving voice twice a year to senior financial executives from across Europe. The data for the 02 Spring 2021 edition were collected in March 2021 and garnered responses from 1,559 CFOs in 19 countries and across a wide range of industries (Figure 9). To explore the results country by 03 country, please view the interactive graphs at www.deloitte.com/europeancfosurvey 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 14
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism 01 Sample composition by Sample composition by industry geographic location Industry 02 Country Financial Services 16% Portugal 15% Industrial Products & Services 14% Denmark 9% Consumer goods 8% 03 Germany 9% Technology, Media & 7% Switzerland 8% Telecommunications Sweden 6% Retail 7% 04 United Kingdom 6% Energy & Resources 7% Spain 6% Construction 6% Norway 6% Transport & Logistics 6% 05 Italy 5% Life Science & Health Care 5% Poland 5% Automotive 5% Russia 4% Business & Professional Services 4% 06 Austria 4% Tourism & Travel 3% Iceland 4% Other 13% 07 Netherlands 4% Greece 3% Sample composition by business size Annual revenues Finland 2% 08 Ireland 2% Less than 100 million euro 39% Luxembourg 1% Between 100 and 999 million euro 41% Belarus 0% 1 billion euro and more 20% 09 Acknowledgements We would like to thank all participating CFOs for their support in completing this survey. We would also like to 10 thank the CFO Survey Teams in each of the countries that collected the data from local CFOs, as well as Ram Sahu for the management of the data and Julius Elting, Fraciska Bulang and Alex Boersch for their useful comments on previous versions of the article. 15
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism Endnotes 01 01. Author calculations based on Google’s COVID-10 community mobility reports: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/?hl=en , data downloaded on April 8th 2021. Average values of mobility data for “visits to retail/recreational activities” and “movements in 02 transit stations” across all countries part of the European Economic Area (EEA) plus Russia, Switzerland and the UK. 02. UN Climate Press Release/21 Sep 2020 „Commitments to Net Zero Double in Less Than a Year”, https://unfccc.int/news/commitments-to-net-zero-double-in-less-than-a-year accessed on April 13th, 2021. 03 03. Principle for Responsible Investment, “Annual Report 2020” https://www.unpri.org/about-the-pri/annual-report-2020/6811. article, accessed on April 13th, 2021. 04 04. International Labour Organization (ILO) “ ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. Seventh edition. Updated estimates and analysis” https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_767028.pdf, January 2021. Accessed on April 13th, 2021. 05 06 07 08 09 10 16
European CFO Survey | A new wave – of optimism Contacts 01 Austria Greece Netherlands Spain Gerhard Marterbauer Panayiotis Chormovitis Frank Geelen Nuria Fernandez Partner Wirtschaftsprüfung Partner, CFO Programme Lead Partner, CFO Programme Lead Senior Manager, CFO 02 Deloitte Austria Deloitte Greece Deloitte Netherlands Programme +43 1 537 00-4600 +30 210 6781 316 +31 882 884 659 Deloitte Spain gmarterbauer@deloitte.at pchormovitis@deloitte.gr FGeelen@deloitte.nl +34 9143 81811 03 nufernandez@deloitte.es Belarus Iceland Norway Maria Shachenkova Maria Skuladottir Ragnar Nesdal Sweden Senior Manager, Director Brand, Marketing & Partner, Financial Advisory Henrik Nilsson 04 Audit and Risk Advisory Communications Deloitte Norway Partner, CFO Survey Lead Deloitte Belarus Deloitte Iceland +47 958 80 105 Deloitte Sweden +375 (17) 309 99 00 +354 580 3020 rnesdal@deloitte.no +46 73 397 11 02 mshachenkova@deloitte.by mskuladottir@deloitte.is henilsson@deloitte.se 05 Poland Denmark Ireland Paweł Spławski Switzerland Kim Hendil Tegner Daniel Gaffney Partner, CFO Programme Lead Michael Grampp CFO Programme Lead Partner, Finance & Deloitte Poland Chief Economist, Head of 06 Deloitte Denmark Performance +48 664 199 183 Research^ +45 30 93 64 46 Deloitte Ireland psplawski@deloittece.com Deloitte AG +353 1 417 2349 +41 582 796 817 ktegner@deloitte.dk dgaffney@deloitte.ie Portugal mgrampp@deloitte.ch 07 Finland Nelson Fontainhas Tuomo Salmi Italy Partner, CFO Programme Lead UK Partner, CFO Programme Lead Riccardo Raffo Deloitte Portugal Ian Stewart 08 Deloitte Finland Partner, CFO Programme Lead +351 2135 67100 Chief Economist +358 207 555 381 Deloitte Italy nfontainhas@deloitte.pt Deloitte LLP tuomo.salmi@deloitte.fi +39 028 332 2380 +44 2070 079 386 rraffo@deloitte.it Russia istewart@deloitte.co.uk 09 Germany Ekaterina Trofimova Alexander Boersch Luxembourg Partner, Head of Deloitte EMEA Research Centre Director, Head of Research Pierre Masset Insights in the CIS Michela Coppola Deloitte GmbH Partner, CFO Service Lead Deloitte CIS Research Lead 10 +49 89 29036 8689 Deloitte Luxembourg +7 495 787 0600 Deloitte GmbH aboersch@deloitte.de +352 451 452 756 ektrofimova@deloitte.ru +49 89 29036 8099 pmasset@deloitte.lu micoppola@deloitte.de 17 17
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