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ESI Bulletin ESI Bulletin on ESI’s Research Roadmap for FY2021-FY2025 The lights of the urban nightscape in Singapore. Photo by Guo Xin Goh from unsplash.com (Permission under Unsplash License) INTRODUCTION • P r o g r a m m e 1 : Te c h n o l o g y 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine This issue introduces the new assessments and decarbonisation has driven skyrocketing prices of research roadmap of the Energy pathways energy resources and minerals, such Studies Institute (ESI), which will as oil, gas, coal, aluminium, and iron shape much of the research output • Programme 2: Energy consumption ore, which made many countries from the institute over the coming and life-cycle accounting rethink and prioritise their energy four years. • Programme 3: Strategies of other security. Energy diversification, As Southeast Asia’s first think-tank countries devoted to analysing energy issues, In this issue ... • Programme 4: Security of supply ESI has played an important role in Introduction…….................…..................1 energy policy research and thought • Programme 5: Carbon pricing and leadership since its establishment climate finance Programme 3: Decarbonisation strategies in November 2007. To ensure that of other key economies…...................... 3 its research agenda and network Given the current evolving global and domestic energy landscape, Programme 4: Security of Supply ........ 5 stay relevant amid the global energy transition and directly address higher these programmes are especially Programme 5: Carbon Pricing and priority policy questions in Singapore’s timely. The Intergovernmental Panel Climate Finance..................................... 8 decarbonisation development, ESI on Climate Change (IPCC) urged immediate and deep decarbonisation, Staff Publications..................................11 has drawn up its five-year Research Roadmap (FY2021-FY2025). The assessing the global greenhouse gas Staff Presentations and Moderating.... 12 roadmap comprises five research emissions should be reduced by 25- programmes developed based on 43% by 2030 to limit global warming Staff Media Contributions.....................13 discussions with government and to around 1.5-2°C, in the Working Recent Events...................................... 15 industry stakeholders. Group III report released in April
Image by Gerd Altmann from pixabay.com (Permission under Pixabay License) including various energy sources, trading partners, and This research programme will objectively characterise transportation routes, became more important to secure and assess the energy security of supply risks and the reliable sources of energy. implications of both current and potential risks in selected decarbonisation pathways. Programme 5 covers Carbon In the domestic context, in 2020, Singapore pledged to pricing and Climate Finance. Within the context of peak its emissions at 65 MtCO2e around 2030, halve Singapore in 2022, carbon pricing has taken a new level emissions from this peak to 33 MtCO2e by 2050, and of importance with the commitment to a new carbon achieve net-zero emissions as soon as viable in the tax trajectory locking in significant price increases. This second half of this century. Furthermore, the government programme will explore carbon pricing and climate/green announced it would raise the climate ambition to financing strategies to enable Singapore to accelerate achieve net-zero emissions by or around mid-century at progress towards decarbonisation while maintaining its Budget 2022. Singapore Energy 2050 Committee also economic competitiveness. emphasised that transformational changes in Singapore’s energy landscape are required for meeting the net-zero The articles in this issue, written by Programme Leads, emissions target in its report, “Charting the Energy expand on each of the newly launched research Transition to 2050,” published in March 2022. programmes, laying out a roadmap of the work and insights that our researchers will be turning their As the first step following the ESI Research Roadmap, attention to in their work. We expect these research six research projects under Programmes 3, 4 and 5 programmes and projects to appropriately address the were launched on 1 April 2022 with support from the challenges and opportunities that the rapidly changing Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). The other two global energy landscape could create for our government, Programmes have not yet started but are expected businesses, and society. The research outcomes will be to be conducted when we have secured the required communicated to government agencies and the public funding and resources. through various channels, such as reports, policy briefs, Programme 3 focuses on the Strategies of Other academic publications, and workshops. Countries with respect to long-term energy policy. We hope you find these articles interesting and welcome Its objective will be to examine how key global your views and comments. decarbonisation trends and their associated regulatory changes, policy levers, and contexts impact Singapore’s Assoc. Prof. Lee Poh Seng climate action trajectory and global competitiveness. Executive Director of ESI Programme 4 primarily focuses on the Security of (On behalf of the ESI Bulletin Team) Supply. Global energy supply chains have always been important, especially for Singapore, where we are so heavily dependent on fuel and energy imports. ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 2
Programme 3: Decarbonisation strategies of other key economies Dr. YAO Lixia, ESI Senior Research Fellow CIC Zero carbon park in Hong Kong. Photo by Jude Joshua from pixabay.com (Permission under Pixabay License) Introduction several key economies, with particular focuses on the In 2020, the Singapore government set the climate goal regulatory changes and levers utilised by jurisdictions to to halve emissions from the peak by 2050 and then reach support the integration of low-carbon alternatives. With net-zero emissions as soon as viable in the second half this said, this programme identifies how international of the century. Subsequently, in 2022, the government changes will affect Singapore, and what lessons can announced a plan to review the current climate goal and be learnt. Geopolitical consideration for Singapore for set more ambitious targets that bring the net-zero target various energy options will also be examined. to “by or around mid-century.” Under this background, this programme addresses low-emission development Two projects are under this programme: Carbon Neutral strategies (LEDS) of key economies to obtain implications Strategies of Other Key Economies (Project 3.1); and for Singapore’s LEDS. Many countries around the world Decarbonisation Strategies of Other Key Economies are developing and implementing LEDS. These seek to (Project 3.2). ESI is aware of ongoing efforts by MTI, achieve economic, environmental and social development NCCS and MSE in identifying key priorities and emerging goals while reducing long-term greenhouse gas emissions issues affecting Singapore over the medium to long term, and increasing resilience to climate change impacts. such as population and climate change. The project leads are ready to assist in order to deliver policies that are in the long-term interest of Singapore. The below sections Overarching Policy Objective of introduce the two projects, respectively. Programme The overarching policy objective is to examine how Project 3.1: Carbon Neutral Strategies key global decarbonisation trends and their associated regulatory changes, policy levers, and contexts impact of Other Key Economies Singapore’s climate action trajectory and global Key economies studied under this project are Indonesia, competitiveness. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, China, Japan, South Singapore is committed to achieving net-zero carbon Korea, the United Kingdom, and South Africa, which emissions in the second half of the century. This have announced plans to achieve net-zero or climate programme analyses the decarbonisation roadmap for neutrality. The main objectives are to review net-zero ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 3
Poster during climate change protest in Berlin. Photo by Etienne Girardet from unsplash.com (Permission under Unsplash License) targets based on their scope of greenhouse gases and and achieving their goals, particularly those who have sectors, and assess and predict whether these economies pledged net-zero targets. plan to use international carbon offsets, and if near-term or interim sectoral or economy-wide emissions reduction Project 3.2: Decarbonisation Strategies targets or actions or legislated carbon budgets will be set. Further, if the jurisdiction plans to cap its use of of Other Key Economies offsets to a certain percentage of its yearly emissions, Key economies studied under project 3.2 are Indonesia, whether they are a buyer or seller country, and who they Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, China, Japan, South Korea, are working with to secure such projects. India, the United States, and European Union. This project constitutes three parts. First, it examines the Specific tasks include selecting the most relevant domestic decarbonisation strategies of the selected key methodology or methodologies to evaluate the net- economies to assess whether they are successful in their zero or carbon-neutral strategies, reviewing regulatory low carbon energy transition. The second part looks into changes and policy levers in key jurisdictional contexts how the respective strategies of the key jurisdictions/major that have been applied to set them on the pathway to emitters shape their engagement/collaboration with other net-zero, and determining the major political, economic countries within the context of global energy transition and regulatory challenges to achieving net-zero emissions and international climate action. The third and final part in these economies. It further examines their progress explores the lessons and implications for Singapore. and prospects in following through with their strategies ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 4
Specific research questions to be addressed are: What Approach/Methodology Adopted are the decarbonisation strategies of key jurisdictions/ The research of this programme will be qualitative in large emitters that would have an impact on the pace nature. Firstly, the literature review is needed to be of the global low carbon energy transition? And what done before a further assessment is conducted. The are the lessons learnt and how can they be applied to review includes but is not limited to politically pledged Singapore? With these questions in mind, the main tasks or government announced net-zero targets, LEDS, and under project 3.2 include: examining the decarbonisation decarbonisation strategies of the identified economies. strategies of the jurisdictions identified; examining the Secondly, an assessment framework will be developed for choices of these economies, such as available options, reviewing decarbonisation and carbon-neutral strategies, motivations, constraints and opportunities; examining regulatory changes and policy levers, and their trade- key low-carbon technology, including hydrogen, carbon offs. These are desktop research based on primary and capture, utilisation and storage, and clean energy secondary sources. Thirdly, field research is also needed grids; assessing how the countries’ renewable energy to identify and engage with local/international/regional and decarbonisation strategies could have an impact experts of the identified economies. It is noteworthy that on their use of fossil fuels and fossil-based activities; the study will be a stand-alone project, with information and assessing developments at specific periods, i.e. drawn from publicly available analysis and information 2030, 2040, 2050, and where relevant, 2060. With all sources, as well as information drawn from discussions these works done, this study will identify the underlying with various experts. institutional, political, economic, and other factors that promote and/or constrain progress and the path taken. Lessons learnt and implications for Singapore will be Conclusion discussed then. All in all, project 3.1 is more focused on the study of several key economies’ policies and plans on halving Both projects will identify the lessons of each target emissions from the peak by 2050 and then reaching net- country’s decarbonisation strategies and policies and zero later this century, while project 3.2 is to examine discuss what lessons are applicable to Singapore and how these key economies are shaping the global low what are the implications of their renewable energy use carbon energy transition and international climate action and decarbonisation strategy for Singapore. Both projects with their decarbonisation strategies. The two projects will also provide recommendations that may be applicable overlap for some of the jurisdictions proposed, and there to Singapore in light of its national circumstances and could be synergies, such as deeper analysis and more prevailing priorities. In the meantime, both projects aim insightful discussion based on broader perspectives and to develop and implement communication, education different research methodologies. outreach, and community engagement plan to support new or updated climate strategies and policies of Singapore. Programme 4: Security of Supply Dr. Christopher LEN, ESI Senior Research Fellow Introduction a low-carbon economy. This is particularly through the Singapore is a geographically small, resource-constrained decarbonisation of Singapore’s energy sector, where and energy import-dependent country. As a result, its about 95% of Singapore’s electricity is generated using survival and economic competitiveness are dependent natural gas. However, Singapore’s low-carbon energy on having a secure and reliable energy supply. As a transition journey would depend on two key external low-lying city-state and small island, the government factors which would affect its security of supply, namely recognises that the country is one of the most vulnerable the global geopolitical environment and the pace of to climate change. Climate change is regarded as an progress in the development of low-carbon energy existential threat, noting that rising temperatures and technologies. reduced rainfall would affect the country’s water supply and biodiversity, increase the energy demand for cooling Low-Carbon Energy Transition and pose implications for public health. Furthermore, 30% Singapore is a signatory to the Paris Agreement and of the country is less than 5 metres above Singapore has submitted its enhanced Nationally Determined Height Datum, and therefore, any increase in sea levels Contribution (NDC) and Long-Term Low-Emissions caused by climate change constitutes an immediate Development Strategy (LEDS) document to the UNFCCC. threat.1 The enhanced NDC states an absolute emissions target to peak emissions at 65 MtCO2e around 2030, while the In recognising the importance of a collective global LEDS published in 2020 states Singapore’s aspiration to response to reduce global concentrations of greenhouse halve emissions from its peak to 33 MtCO2e by 2050, gasses, Singapore is doing its part to address climate to achieve net-zero emissions as soon as viable in the change by making a great effort to transition towards second half of the century.2 In 2019, the government ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 5
An LPG tanker ship sailing under the flag of Singapore. Photo by Thanasis Papazacharias from pixaby.com (Permission under Pixabay License) announced “four switches” – consisting of solar, regional transition also presents an opportunity for Singapore power grids, low-carbon alternatives, and natural gas to position itself as a technology frontrunner and be a – to guide and transform Singapore’s energy supply living lab for innovative energy solutions.6 towards a cleaner, affordable, and reliable energy future.3 To decarbonise the power sector and provide greater Research Programme on Security resilience and stability, the government, in October 2021, announced its intention to import up to four gigawatts of Supply of low-carbon electricity by 2025, which will constitute Against this background, the Energy Studies Institute’s around 30% of Singapore’s electricity supply in 2035.4 Programme on Security of Supply supports the government’s efforts at reshaping Singapore’s future In February 2022, Mr. Lawrence Wong, the Minister for energy supply. The objective of the research is to help Finance, announced during his Budget Speech that the Singapore understand and manage its energy security government would raise Singapore’s climate ambition to risks during this low-carbon energy transition period. achieve net-zero emissions “by or around mid-century,” Under this Programme a project titled International beyond the earlier commitment under LEDS to achieve Security of Supply examines the international security of the same target “as soon as possible.” This decision the energy supply in the context of the “four switches.” aligns Singapore’s goal with the Glasgow Climate Pact, This qualitative study focuses on geopolitical and and the review is based on the improving outlook on low- technological considerations, opportunities, and potential carbon technologies and the carbon market. According solutions related to Singapore’s energy supply options, in to Mr. Wong, “[g]reen technologies have been improving the areas of grid connectivity in the region, low-carbon by leaps and bounds. Alternative low-carbon solutions, technology solutions, such as solar, hydrogen, and like carbon capture, utilisation and storage, hydrogen, are carbon capture and storage (CCS), as well as regional starting to look more plausible,” while “[c]arbon markets gas developments. It explores how global supply chain are also growing steadily.”5 risks such as resource and techno nationalism, Great Power rivalry, environmental, social and governance This view is supported by the Energy 2050 Committee (ESG) considerations, access to technology, and critical report, commissioned by Singapore’s industry regulator metals and minerals needed for low-carbon energy Energy Market Authority (EMA). The report released in systems, will affect Singapore’s decarbonisation goals. March this year affirmed the net-zero feasibility of the Singapore power sector by 2050. It also noted that Another project, ASEAN Energy Interconnection and while uncertainties such as external geopolitical trends Energy Security, looks into the viable pathways, and low-carbon technological advancements could lead opportunities, and technical, economic, and geopolitical to changes in Singapore’s decarbonisation plan, this prospects for a regional power grid between Singapore ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 6
Transmission towers. Photo by Lucie Hosová from unsplash.com (Permission under Unsplash License) and its ASEAN partners. This study which will be findings from this Programme—which focuses on the quantitative in nature, will examine the potential and impact of external geopolitical trends and technological challenges to the implementation of the four switches, developments for low-carbon energy systems—will with a focus on regional interconnections. This project contribute to Singapore’s long-term low-carbon energy will develop a model to analyse the viable pathways ambitions. for regional power interconnections, including sub- regional and bilateral connections, between Singapore 1 National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS), Impact of Climate Change and its ASEAN partners in the context of energy and Adaptation Measures, https://www.nccs.gov.sg/faqs/impact-of-climate- security, environmental sustainability and energy change-and-adaptation-measures/ (accessed on 1 April 2022). equity considerations, as well as opportunities for 2 NCCS, Singapore’s Long-Term Low-Emissions Development Strategy, 1 April regional cooperation on this front between Singapore 2020. https://www.nccs.gov.sg/media/publications/singapores-long-term-low- emissions-development-strategy (accessed on 1 April 2022). and its surrounding neighbours. As part of this study, the economic and geopolitical implications regarding 3 Energy Market Authority (EMA), Advancing Singapore’s Energy Transition Towards a More Sustainable Future, 25 October 2021, https://www.ema. the applications of hydrogen, CCS, energy storage, gov.sg/media_release.aspx?news_sid=20211025JxngSPJ9UClo (accessed and carbon markets in power generation will also be on 1 April 2022). examined. 4 Vanessa Lim, “Singapore Intends to Import 30% of Its Electricity Supply from Low-Carbon Sources by 2035”, CNA, 25 October 2021, https://www. Conclusion channelnewsasia.com/singapore/electricity-imports-singapore-low-carbon- sources-2035-2266036 (accessed on 1 April 2022). As a small state, Singapore is a “taker” of events and 5 Vanessa Lim, “Budget 2022: Singapore to Progressively Raise Carbon Tax trends, whether political, economic or technological. to Reach Net-Zero Target ‘by or around Mid-Century’”, CNA, 18 February Therefore, it is important for the public to understand 2022, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/carbon-tax-net-zero- target-emissions-singapore-green-plan-2506496 (accessed on 1 April 2022). and for policy-makers to keep abreast of energy-related developments at the regional and international levels in 6 EMA, Charting the Energy Transition 2050, March 2022, https://www.ema. order for our country to stay relevant and respond to gov.sg/energy-2050-committee-report.aspx (accessed on 1 April 2022). and, where possible, shape such developments through international and regional cooperation. The research ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 7
Programme 5: Carbon Pricing and Climate Finance Dr. David BROADSTOCK, ESI Senior Research Fellow and Dr. KIM Jeong Won, ESI Research Fellow Placards at the People’s Climate March 2017 in Washington DC. Photo by Edward Kimmel (Permission under CC BY-SA 2.0) Introduction Despite a substantial expansion in its use, pricing and Having emerged as perhaps the most serious long-term paying for carbon faces significant challenges including threat to society, the international community rapidly insufficient greenhouse gas emissions coverage and a escalated the scale of effort to address climate change tendency for low prices for carbon. Some countries and issues. Among such efforts, carbon pricing has been companies are still reluctant to introduce carbon pricing. given a central role in mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) Even where carbon pricing is implemented, several emissions - due to its flexibility and cost-effectiveness. At industrial sectors are exempted from the obligation (to the country level, carbon pricing has become recognised protect the competitiveness of industries), and the carbon as a crucial policy instrument. As of 2021, 65 national or price often remains far below the price required to achieve subnational carbon pricing schemes are in effect in the the global 1.5-2oC climate target. These measures can form of carbon taxes and/or emissions trading systems.1 protect domestic industries from losing their economic At the same time, novel carbon pricing mechanisms competitiveness yet undermine the environmental continue to be explored, such as a Carbon Border benefits. In this context, how to balance between meeting Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and an International climate targets and maintaining business competitiveness Carbon Price Floor (ICPF), which have been proposed is a critical question for the governments implementing at the international level and met with some support. or considering carbon pricing. Furthermore, the practice of internal carbon pricing – where companies volunteer or adopt a price for carbon in Adoption and Impacts of Carbon making their business decisions - has seen a significant increase in adoption at the company level. As of 2020, Pricing Since the Nordic countries, including Finland, Sweden, more than two thousand companies reported using or Norway, and Denmark, adopted carbon taxes in the early planning to apply internal carbon prices in the next two 1990s, more and more national and local governments years.2 have introduced carbon pricing schemes. When a ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 8
government reveals its plan to introduce or strengthen improve the quality of air, water, and soil. From the carbon pricing, the society, including businesses, economic perspective, carbon pricing may affect the households, and political entities, may accept the country’s macroeconomy, including economic growth and government’s decision or oppose it, more typically, for unemployment rate. It also may affect the distribution various political and economic reasons. For example, of welfare and economic competitiveness within and the Washington State failed to adopt a proposed carbon across countries since the costs and benefits of carbon tax in both 2016 and 2018 due to the lobby of the fossil pricing are often distributed unequally across society. fuel industry, and France discarded its plan to increase Given that protectionist measures generate a trade-off the carbon tax rate because of the violent protests by between protecting the economy and lowering emissions the yellow vests movement. The government is often coverage and carbon price, it is necessary to extensively confronted with fierce resistance from businesses and evaluate the impacts of existing carbon pricing schemes. the public based on concerns over the cost burden, Furthermore, the carbon pricing schemes need to loss of economic competitiveness, carbon leakage, be continually refined to raise their effectiveness and and regressive distributional impacts. To alleviate these achieve both climate and economic goals based on the concerns and improve the acceptability of carbon assessment of their impacts. pricing, the government complemented carbon pricing mechanisms with protectionist measures. They include The concept of carbon pricing is not limited to government- phased implementation, exemptions for energy-intensive level legislation but also can be applied at the company trade-exposed (EITE) industries, setting a low carbon level. It is called “internal carbon pricing” when a company price with a price ceiling, offering a discount on the voluntarily assigns a unique monetary value to carbon carbon tax rate, providing free allocation of allowances, generated in their business operations. Companies adopt and financial support for vulnerable groups.3 internal carbon pricing to coordinate the identification and management of their GHG emissions reduction targets Implementation of carbon pricing primarily has by shifting capital investments to low-carbon options, and environmental and economic impacts. Environmental to attract environmentally aware investors, stakeholders, impacts can be divided into a decarbonisation effect and consumers. Moreover, companies use internal and other environmental co-benefits. Carbon pricing carbon pricing as a risk management tool, for example, incentivises GHG emitters to change their production to evaluate regulatory risks, such as the possibility of and consumption patterns, reduce their emissions, adoption or tightening of government-led, mandatory and invest in developing low-carbon technologies by carbon pricing.4 As participation of the private sector in putting a price on carbon. Besides, carbon pricing may reducing GHG emissions and expanding climate finance Figure 1. Scope of research projects ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 9
Image by Orlandow from pixabay.com (Permission under Pixabay License) is vital to tackling climate change, more companies potential impacts of an increase in the carbon tax rate need to be encouraged to adopt internal carbon pricing. and the CBAM and ICPF on Singapore’s decarbonisation, To this end, it is necessary to examine the impacts and economic competitiveness, and welfare distribution, under challenges of internal carbon pricing and expand the various scenarios. evidence base for potential adopters that can confirm how it impacts (and improves) corporate environmental The second project, Carbon Pricing Strategies in Other and financial performance profiles. Key Economies, focuses on the experience of other jurisdictions’ adoption and evolution of carbon pricing schemes, including coverage, mechanism, trends in the Research Projects under the carbon price, measures to enhance public and industrial Carbon Pricing and Climate Finance acceptance, and environmental and economic impacts. Programme The selected jurisdictions include Australia, Canada, Against the backdrop discussed above, ESI’s Programme China, European Union, Japan, New Zealand, South on Carbon Pricing and Climate Finance aims to examine Korea, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United carbon pricing and climate financing strategies to enable States. Comparative case studies based on a literature Singapore to accelerate progress towards decarbonisation review will be conducted to understand and contrast the while maintaining its economic competitiveness. Under policy design elements of carbon pricing schemes, and this Programme, two research projects titled Carbon econometric analyses will be employed to assess the Pricing in Singapore and Carbon Pricing Strategies in environmental and economic impacts of carbon pricing Other Key Economies were launched on 1 April 2022. and identify factors that enhance or undermine the Figure 1 presents the scope of these two projects. impacts of carbon pricing mechanisms. In addition, the project addresses corporate behaviour towards internal The first project, Carbon Pricing in Singapore, evaluates carbon pricing by examining the trends in internal carbon the empirical (i.e. ex-post) and potential (i.e. ex-ante) pricing implementation and its impacts. Specifically, it impacts of Singapore’s carbon tax and international will carry out in-depth econometric analyses on the carbon pricing schemes on Singapore’s decarbonisation determinants of internal carbon pricing adoption and and economy, based on various quantitative analyses, price levels, such as corporate governance structures including meta-analysis, econometric analysis, and and national carbon pricing, and the impacts of internal computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. This carbon pricing on corporate environmental and financial project identifies the most relevant methodologies performance, including GHG emissions reduction, energy to measure the effectiveness of the carbon tax in consumption, profits and stock price, and environmental, Singapore. Then, it examines how effective Singapore’s social and governance (ESG) rating. carbon tax was in driving GHG emissions mitigation, including incentivising energy efficiency improvements Both projects cover a similar subject matter but differ and adopting low-carbon technologies, how heavy the in terms of geographic focus and, in turn, the depth impacts of the carbon tax on Singapore’s economic of analysis and specificity of policy prescription they competitiveness were, and which industrial sectors can offer. The two projects are mutually reinforcing have been the most impacted. Moreover, it explores and are expected to provide a more comprehensive the optimal carbon tax rate and emissions coverage to understanding of carbon pricing issues and more practical meet both climate and economic goals by estimating the recommendations for Singapore’s future policy design. ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 10
Conclusion carbon pricing schemes would provide helpful insights The Singapore government launched a carbon tax in into future carbon pricing in Singapore. Key findings from 2019, with a tax rate of S$5/tCO2e for the 2019-2023 the two projects under the Carbon Pricing and Climate period. In February 2022, the government announced Finance Programme will provide recommendations for that the carbon tax rate will increase to S$25/tCO2e in the Singapore government to improve the effectiveness 2024 and 2025, S$45/tCO2e in 2026 and 2027, with a of the carbon tax in achieving both decarbonisation and view to reaching S$50-80/tCO2e by 2030, in order to economic competitiveness. enable the transition to a low-carbon future.5 As other economies have already experienced, a higher carbon 1 World Bank Carbon Pricing Dashboard, https://carbonpricingdashboard. worldbank.org/ (Accessed on 1 April 2022). tax rate may arouse strong opposition from the industry by increasing the financial burden on companies. Thus, 2 CDP, Putting a Price on Carbon: The State of Internal Carbon Pricing by the government needs to consider how the tightened Corporates Globally (London: CDP Worldwide, 2021), 6. carbon tax scheme and the use of carbon tax revenue 3 Jamil Kahn and Bengt Johansson, “Adoption, Implementation and Design can be calibrated to enable companies’ smooth transition of Carbon Pricing Policy Instruments,” Energy Strategy Reviews 40 (2022): 100801. to lower-carbon operations and minimise the impact on Singapore’s near to medium term competitiveness. In 4 Manjyot B. Ahluwalia, The Business of Pricing Carbon: How Companies Are Pricing Carbon to Mitigate Risks and Prepare for a Low-carbon this sense, it is expected that a review of other countries’ Future (Arlington: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, 2017), 5-8. experience of raising the acceptability of carbon pricing 5 National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS), Carbon Tax, https://www.nccs. and a robust assessment of the impacts of existing gov.sg/singapores-climate-action/carbon-tax/ (Accessed on 4 April 2022). Staff Publications Internationally Refereed Journal Articles Journal of Cleaner Production 328 (2021): 129496. Bin Su, B.W. Ang, and Ya-Fang Sun, “Input-Output Analysis of Embodied Emissions: Impacts of Imports Sheng Zeng, Bin Su, Minglong Zhang, Yuan Gao, Jun Data Treatment on Emission Drivers”, Energy Economics Liu, Song Luo and Qingmei Tao, “Analysis and Forecast 107 (2022): 105875. of China’s Energy Consumption Structure”, Energy Policy 159 (2021): 112630. Guoxing Zhang, Yang Gao, Jiexun Li, Bin Su, Zhanglei Chen, and Weichun Lin, “China’s Environmental Policy Zhiguo Wang, Tsan Sheng Ng and Wei Liang Alvin Intensity for 1978-2019”, Scientific Data 9 (2022): 75. Ee. “A System Dynamics Model for Industrial Symbiosis Capacity Formation”, Journal of Simulation (2021): 1-26. Bin Su, Tian Goh, B.W. Ang and Tsan Sheng Ng, “Energy Consumption and Energy Efficiency Trends in ESI Policy Briefs Singapore: The Case of a Meticulously Planned City”, Melissa Low, Tan Jing Ling and Tan Xin Yi, “Singapore’s Energy Policy 161 (2022): 112732. Carbon Tax Hike and Climate Ambition” ESI Policy Brief 52 (11 March 2022). Lixia Yao and Philip Andrews-Speed, “Engagement with Risk-Exposed Neighbours: The Track Record of David C. Broadstock, Goh Tian and Zhong Sheng, Nuclear Newcomer and Newbuild States”, Journal of “Conceptualising Energy Circularity” ESI Policy Brief 51 World Energy Law and Business 15 (2022): 38-58. (25 February 2022). Fanghua Li, Kena Zhao, Tsan Sheng Ng, Yanjun Dai and Chi-Hwa Wang, “Sustainable Production of Bio-Oil and Books and Chapter Contributions (edited Carbonaceous Materials from Biowaste Co-Pyrolysis”, volumes) Chemical Engineering Journal 427 (2022): 131821. Philip Andrews-Speed and Yao Lixia, “China’s Evolving Energy Relations with the Middle East” in J. Fulton (ed.) Jidong Kang, Tsan Sheng Ng, Bin Su and Alexandre Handbook on China-Middle East Relations (Abingdon: Milovanoff, “Electrifying Light-Duty Passenger Transport Routledge, 2022), 227-44. for CO2 Emissions Reduction: A Stochastic-Robust Input- Output Linear Programming Model”, Energy Economics Alvin Ee Wei Liang and Valerio Isoni, “Environmental 104 (2021): 105623. and Cost Assessment of Spent Methanol via Life Cycle Assessment” in H.H. Khoo and R.B.H. Tan (eds.) Life Kena Zhao, Tsan Sheng Ng, Chin Hon Tan and Chee Cycle Assessment: New Developments and Multi- Khiang Pang, “An Almost Robust Model for Minimizing Disciplinary Applications (Singapore: World Scientific Disruption Exposures in Supply Systems”, European Publishing, 2022), 135-49. Journal of Operational Research 295(2) (2021): 547-59. Valerio Isoni, Khoo Hsien Hui, and Alvin Ee Wei Liang. Guoxing Zhang, Yuqi Jia, Bin Su and Jing Xiu, “Green Principles in Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient “Environmental Regulation, Economic Development and Manufacturing as Seen through the Lens of Life Cycle Air Pollution in the Cities of China: Spatial Econometric Assessment” in H.H. Khoo and R.B.H. Tan (eds.) Life Analysis Based on Policy Scoring and Satellite Data”, Cycle Assessment: New Developments and Multi- ESI ESI Bulletin Bulletin •• April April 2020 2022 •• Page Page 11 11
Disciplinary Applications (Singapore: World Scientific Melissa Low, “Commentary: Bad News for Singapore’s Publishing, 2022), 77-89. Oil and Gas Industry as Young People Shun Fossil Fuels?”, Channel NewsAsia, 13 February 2022. External Reports and Papers Christopher Len, Yao Lixia, Kim Jeong Won, Ashish Mary Ann Quirapas-Franco, “Why Renewable Energy Singh, Leow Foon Lee and Philip Andrews-Speed, “The in Southeast Asia?”, The Philippine Strategic Forum, 28 Impacts of COVID-19 on the Role of Renewable Energy January 2022. in Asia’s Three Largest Carbon Emitting Countries”, Report for Konrad‑Adenauer‑Stiftung (KAS) (2022). David Broadstock, “Why the Jolt in Singapore’s Power Prices”, The Straits Times, 17 December 2021. K i m J e o n g Wo n , “ (ASEAN) ODA (Trends in Environmental Official Development Other Publications (Miscellaneous) Assistance to ASEAN Member States)”, Trends in Global Michael Abundo, Leonard Edward Travis, Mary Ann Environmental Policy 2021-04 (2021): 32-44. Quirapas-Franco, Marianne Eleonor Catanyag, Merylle Papasin and Christen Jan Catanyag, “The Philippines’ External Articles (Commentaries, Op-eds, and Marine Renewables: Sustainable Energy from Ocean Spaces and Resources”, A Stocktake and Options Other Pieces in Non-academic publications) Report for the Philippine Department of Energy. 14 Melissa Low, “Commentary: Singapore’s Climate Ambition Finally Up to Speed with International December 2021. Developments”, Channel NewsAsia, 19 February 2022. Staff Presentations and Moderating 2 March Melissa Low presented “What a Green and and Sustainable Future – in the case of Singapore’s Sustainable Future in Singapore Looks Like” at a Hwa Green Plan 2030” via internet for the Green Climate Chong Humanities Programme Seminar, organised by Financing Course, organised by Singapore Cooperation the Hwa Chong Institution, Singapore. Programme, Singapore. 2 March Zhong Sheng presented “Low Carbon Energy 13 January Melissa Low presented “COP26 and Transition Scenario” via internet at the Working Group on Implications for the Global Energy Transition” via “Preparation of Energy Outlook and Analysis of Energy internet at a Webinar Series on Economic Sustainability Saving Potential in East Asia Region” of the 2nd Meeting - Singapore’s Energy Transition and Carbon Markets of ERIA Research Project FY2021, organised by the Development, organised by Economics Society of Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia Singapore, Singapore. (ERIA), Indonesia. 12 January Alvin Ee Wei Liang presented “Introduction 16 February Philip Andrews-Speed and Yao Lixia to the Embodied Carbon Calculator” via internet at the presented “Engagement with Risk-Exposed Neighbours: 2nd User Experience Test Workshop for the Embodied the Track Record of Nuclear Newbuild and Newcomer Carbon Calculator, organised by ESI, JTC and Singapore States” via internet at an ESI Public Webinar, organised Green Building Council (SGBC), Singapore. by Energy Studies Institute (ESI), Singapore. 12 January Goh Tian presented “Training on How to 9 February David Broadstock presented “Price Recovery Use the Embodied Carbon Calculator” via internet at the of Price Discovery: What Direction Is Singapore’s 2nd User Experience Test Workshop for the Embodied Wholesale Electricity Market Heading” via internet at Carbon Calculator, organised by ESI, JTC and SGBC, an ESI Public Webinar, organised by ESI, Singapore. Singapore. 9 February Melissa Low presented “Building a Green 12 January Archie Lim and Lin Xianlong moderated the and Sustainable Future in Singapore” via internet at the hands-on session via internet at the 2nd User Experience Singapore Kaleidoscope Symposium, organised by the Test Workshop for the Embodied Carbon Calculator, National Institute of Education, Singapore. organised by ESI, JTC and SGBC, Singapore. 25 January Philip Andrews-Speed, Christopher Len 5 January Alvin Ee Wei Liang presented “The Embodied and Mary Ann Quirapas-Franco were discussants at Carbon Calculator” via internet at the 1st User Experience the Prospect for Hydrogen Exports and Implications for Test Workshop for the Embodied Carbon Calculator, Asia Workshop via internet, organised by the Center for organised by ESI, JTC and SGBC, Singapore. Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, DC, USA. 5 January Goh Tian moderated the Q&A session via internet at the 1st User Experience Test Workshop for 17 January Melissa Low presented “Building a Green the Embodied Carbon Calculator, organised by ESI, JTC and SGBC, Singapore. ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 12
25 December Yao Lixia presented “A Study on China’s and the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Investment in Southeast Asia’s Energy Industry” via at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. internet at the workshop on China-ASEAN Economic and Trade Relations Under the Changing Situation of 8 December Mary Ann Quirapas-Franco presented the Century, organised by School of Business, Shantou “Adoption of Distributed Renewable Energy in Rural University, Shantou, China. and Remote Areas in the Philippines” via internet at the ASEAN-India High Level Conference on Renewable 20 December Melissa Low presented “The Paris Energy, organised by the ASEAN Centre for Energy and Agreement and Singapore’s Climate and Energy the Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi, India. Policies” via internet at the NUS Joint Virtual Immersion Programme – India and Singapore, Organised by the 2 December Goh Tian was a discussant at the 2021 National University of Singapore (NUS), Singapore. ADBI Annual Conference: Climate Change Mitigation and Green Finance via internet, organised by Asian 18 December Yao Lixia presented “Chinese Overseas Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo, Japan. Investment and Belt and Road Initiative for Energy Sector in ASEAN” via internet at the 20-21st COTA International 2 December Melissa Low presented “Key Takeaways Conference of Transportation Professionals, organised from COP26” at the Understanding Risk Asia Forum by Chang’an University, Xi’an, China. 2021, organised by Understanding Risk Asia, Orchard Hotel, Singapore. 17 December Christopher Len presented “Energy Security and the Role of the Arctic” via internet at the 1 December Philip Andrews-Speed, Christopher Len Russia-Singapore Arctic Dialogue—The Arctic as a Global and Mary Ann Quirapas-Franco were discussants at the Transport Corridor: Sustainable Arctic Shipping, organised Geopolitics of Hydrogen in Indo-Pacific: Asian Regional by the Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO Views Workshop, organised by CSIS, Washington, DC, USA. Staff Media Contributions David Broadstock was quoted in “Petrol Prices to Remain Might Affect People in Singapore”, Channel NewsAsia, High amid Russia-Ukraine Conflict; Drivers Already 3 March 2022. See https://www.channelnewsasia.com/ Feeling the Pinch”, Channel NewsAsia, 11 March 2022. singapore/ukraine-invasion-russia-higher-prices-petrol- See https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/petrol- food-electricity-singapore-2532281. prices-remain-high-amid-russia-ukraine-war-drivers-feel- pinch-2556771. David Broadstock was quoted in “With Carbon Tax Hikes and Green Bond Issues, Asia’s Oil Hub Singapore Melissa Low was quoted in “The Big Read: Can a Embarks on Low-Carbon Transition”, Net-Zero Business Higher Carbon Tax Lead Singapore to the Promised Daily by IHS Markit, 1 March 2022. See https:// Green Land?”, Channel NewsAsia, 7 March 2022. See cleanenergynews.ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/ https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/big-read- with-carbon-tax-hikes-and-green-bond-issues-asias-oil- higher-carbon-tax-emissions-gst-climate-change-global- hub-sing.html. warming-2541556. Philip Andrews-Speed was interviewed by the New York David Broadstock was interviewed in “Businesses Times on energy ties between Russia and China, 25 Consider Alternative Energy Sources amid Electricity February 2022. Price Hike” of Channel NewsAsia (TV), 6 March 2022. Philip Andrews-Speed was quoted in “Russia Unlikely to Melissa Low was quoted in “The Big Read in Short: Divert to China Gas Meant for Europe amid War Crisis, What a Carbon Tax Hike Means for Everyone”, Today Say Analysts”, Upstream, 25 February 2022. See https:// Online, 5 March 2022. See https://www.todayonline.com/ www.upstreamonline.com/politics/analysts-claim-russia- big-read/big-read-short-carbon-tax-hike-impact-costs. unlikely-to-divert-to-china-gas-meant-for-europe-amid- war-crisis/2-1-1174407. Philip Andrews-Speed was interviewed for a video by Straits Times Digital on nuclear safety in the light of David Broadstock was quoted in “There Goes All My Profit: Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s largest nuclear power plant, Soaring Electricity Bills a Rude Shock for Businesses 4 March 2022. in Singapore”, Channel NewsAsia, 25 February 2022. See https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/ Philip Andrews-Speed was interviewed by S&P Global electricity-bills-businesses-smes-sp-open-market-energy- Platts on China-Russia energy relations after Russia’s prices-2516731. invasion of Ukraine, 3 March 2022. Melissa Low was featured in “Singapore Budget 2022 David Broadstock was quoted in “Higher Prices for Petrol, Forum: Ask the Finance Minister”, Channel NewsAsia Electricity and Food: How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine (TV), 22 February 2022. ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 13
Philip Andrews-Speed was interviewed by Gas Outlook Christopher Len and Mary Ann Quirapas-Franco were on the risk of stranded asset in China’s gas pipeline quoted in “Singapore: Fuelling Demand for Cleaner network, 22 February 2022. Energy”, Reporting ASEAN, 29 January 2022. See https:// www.reportingasean.net/singapore-fuelling-demand-for- David Broadstock was quoted in “Carbon Tax Hike Can cleaner-energy/. Increase Cost of Living for Households, Even with Utility Rebates: Experts”, The Straits Times, 21 February 2022. Philip Andrews-Speed was interviewed by Phoenix TV See https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/carbon-tax- Hong Kong on the impact of the riots in Kazakhstan on hike-can-still-increase-cost-of-living-for-households-over- energy markets, 14 January 2022. next-few-years-even-with-utility-rebates-experts. Philip Andrews-Speed was quoted in “EU Plans May Melissa Low was quoted in “Budget 2022 Paves the Boost Asian Nuclear Ambitions but Progress Likely to Way for S’pore to Move Decisively to Tackle Climate Stutter, Say Analysts”, Eco-Business, 17 January 2022. Crisis”, The Straits Times, 20 February 2022. See See https://www.eco-business.com/news/eu-plans-may- https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/ boost-asian-nuclear-ambitions-but-progress-likely-to- budget-2022-offers-unexpected-but-welcome-steps-for- stutter-say-analysts/. spore-to-tackle-climate-crisis. Philip Andrews-Speed was interviewed by Time Magazine Melissa Low was quoted in “Sharp Hike in Carbon Tax on the impact of Indonesia’s coal export ban, 4 January Due to Acceleration in Global Climate Action, Rise in 2022. Green Tech: Grace Fu”, Today Online, 20 February 2022. See https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/ David Broadstock was interviewed in “Electricity Tariff sharp-hike-carbon-tax-due-acceleration-global-climate- for Households to Go Up by 5.6%, Marking Fourth action-rise-green-tech-grace-fu-1822131. Straight Quarter of Increase”, Channel NewsAsia (TV), 30 December 2021. Melissa Low was quoted in “Emitters Working on Improving Energy Efficiency to Deal with Looming Carbon David Broadstock was quoted in “Electricity, Gas Tariffs Tax Hikes”, Channel NewsAsia, 19 February 2022. See to Increase for Next Three Months amid Rising Costs”, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/carbon-tax- The Straits Times, 30 December 2021. See https:// hike-emitters-improve-energy-efficiency-2508521. www.straitstimes.com/singapore/consumer/electricity- gas-tariffs-to-increase-for-next-three-months-amid-rising- Melissa Low was quoted in “碳税2024年起分阶段调 costs. 高”, 联合早报 (Lian He Zao Bao), 19 February 2022. See https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/singapore/ Philip Andrews-Speed was quoted in “The Tricky Promise story20220219-1244182. of Abated Coal Power”, Eco-Business, 6 December 2021. See https://www.eco-business.com/news/the- Melissa Low was quoted in “Budget 2022: Carbon Tax tricky-promise-of-abated-coal-power/. Set to Rise to S$50-80 by 2030; Watchers Call Surprise Move ‘Bold’, ‘Aggressive’”, The Business Times, 18 Alvin Ee Wei Liang was interviewed by Eco-Business February 2022. See https://www.businesstimes.com. on avoided emissions and how not to overclaim them, sg/government-economy/budget-2022-carbon-tax-set- 3 December 2021. to-rise-to-s25-from-2024-s45-from-2026-s50-80-by-2030. David Broadstock was quoted in “Households on David Broadstock was quoted in “Extension of Temporary Wholesale Electricity Plan See Power Bills Balloon in Scheme to Support Large Electricity Users Brings October”, The Straits Times, 2 December 2021. See Some Relief”, The Straits Times, 15 February 2022. https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/households-on- See https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/extension- wholesale-electricity-plan-see-power-bills-balloon-in- of-temporary-scheme-to-support-large-electricity-users- october. brings-some-relief. Melissa Low was interviewed in “Episode 18: Singapore’s Philip Andrews-Speed was featured in “The Climate Climate Pledges at COP26”, In the News podcast of Conversations: In the Race for Cleaner Energies, Is Power 98, 2 December 2021. Nuclear Power Really Part of the Climate Change Mix?”, Channel NewsAsia podcast, 8 February 2022. Philip Andrews-Speed was interviewed by ASEAN Speaks on the ASEAN power grid and lessons from China for ASEAN’s low carbon transition, 4 February 2022. Philip Andrews-Speed was interviewed by Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) by IHS Markit on global energy security issues in the light of Russia’s potential invasion of Ukraine, 4 February 2022. ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 14
Recent Events Event screenshot. 9 February, Price Recovery or Price On February 9 2022, ESI Senior Research Fellow Discovery: Which Direction Is Singapore’s Dr. David C. Broadstock delivered a public webinar hosted by ESI. The talk was titled “Price recovery Wholesale Electricity Market Heading? or price discovery: Which direction is Singapore’s (Webinar) wholesale electricity market heading?” and attracted Event screenshot. ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 15
Event screenshot. an internationally and professionally diverse online The purpose of the webinar was to help audiences audience. David reviewed Singapore’s electricity understand how the responses to climate reporting market structure, energy balance, and electricity prices, have evolved and how TCFD climate disclosure can and particularly examined the topography of electricity add value to the organisation, to introduce the latest prices in October 2021, when the prices of natural good practices of climate disclosure, and to discuss gas and wholesale electricity prices in Singapore corporates’ perspectives on this issue. The speakers soared. He also projected future topography and provided an overview of TCFD and explained how TCFD volatility of electricity prices until January 2022. Then, could be translated into Singapore’s context. Moreover, he discussed the impacts of electricity price rises they highlighted generic climate-disclosure expectations on Singapore’s business sectors. David cautiously from investors and discussed how TCFD could be used interpreted the analysis results. That is, they showed at the company level with a description of best practices. that the suite of regulatory interventions since October 2021 seems aligned with intended market outcomes, Specifically, Ms. Yulia Dobrolyubova, ERM’s Partner for given that the most severe uncertainties have Corporate Sustainability and Climate Change Services in probably been absorbed. However, price and price Asia Pacific region, and Ms. Seena Dabral, Consulting volatility would generally remain high, so conditions Director at ERM leading Corporate Sustainability and for promoting competition and new market entrants Climate Change Services in Singapore, gave an overview may remain limited. Finally, he cautiously concluded of TCFD and explained how companies could assess electricity price recovery is underway while discovery climate-related risks and opportunities and incorporate of a new ‘steady-state’ is not yet a ‘completed’ process them into their risk management and strategic planning and so cannot be ruled out. processes at the general and local levels, respectively. Mr. Robin Kennish, ERM’s Partner for Corporate 9 December, Task Force on Climate-Related Sustainability and Climate Change Services in North Financial Disclosures (TCFD): Where to Start Asia region, introduced perspectives from the financial and Why Do I Need to Disclose? (Webinar) sector based on the examples of companies in Hong Kong. Finally, Ms. Esther An, Chief Sustainability Officer On 9 December 2021, EIS jointly organised a webinar at the City Developments Limited (CDL), shared the with ERM and the Climate Action SG Alliance titled, CDL’s journey to adopting TCFD and embracing the “Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures TCFD framework into its business as one of the TCFD (TCFD): Where to Start and Why Do I Need to Disclose?”. pioneers in Singapore. ESI Bulletin • April 2022 • Page 16
Contact ● Collaboration as a Partner of ESI (research, events, etc.) ● Media Enquiries ● ESI Upcoming Events ● Join ESI Mailing List Ms. Jan Lui jan.lui@nus.edu.sg Energy Studies Institute National University of Singapore 29 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, Block A, #10-01 Singapore 119620 Tel: (65) 6516 2000 Fax: (65) 6775 1831 Email: jan.lui@nus.edu.sg www.esi.nus.edu.sg The ESI Bulletin on Energy Trends and Development seeks to inform its readers about energy-related issues through articles on current developments. Our contributors come from ESI’s pool of researchers, local and overseas research institutes, local government agencies and companies in the private sector. You can download past issues from www.esi.nus.edu.sg. We welcome your feedback, comments and suggestions. The views expressed in each issue are solely those of the individual contributors. All rights reserved. This Bulletin, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without written permission from ESI. Published by The National University of Singapore ISSN 2424-8169 (print) ISSN 2424-8177 (online)
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