ESG TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2020 - RIAA MEMBER ONLY WEBINAR 5 February 2020 Presenters: Responsible Investment ...
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ESG TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2020 RIAA MEMBER ONLY WEBINAR 5 February 2020 Presenters: Enrico Colombo - Sustainalytics Morgan Ellis – MSCI ESG Research Australia Erin Levey – ISS ESG Helena Fung – FTSE Russell Responsible Investment Association Australasia
RIAA - ESG TRENDS TO WATCH 2020 10 for 2020: Creating impact through thematic investing Enrico Colombo – Manager, ESG Research Lead APAC 5 February 2019
About Sustainalytics » A global leader in ESG research, ratings and engagement » Coverage universe of over 12,000 global equities » 600+ staff in 16 offices » Over 600 institutional clients across 22 countries © 2020 SUSTAINALYTICS CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY 2
Our flagship thought leadership report for the year ahead 10 for 2020 is the sixth edition in the series » 10 ESG-inspired investment themes to consider in 2020 and beyond » 10 chapters organized under four themes » 10 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that can be addressed » 10 profiles of relatively well-positioned companies Download the full report from our website: https://www.sustainalytics.com/ESG-research/#ourpublications © 2020 SUSTAINALYTICS CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY 3
Ten storylines for investors in 2020 and beyond Theme Summary SDG Company The f if th generation wireless technology - 5G - promises theoretical peak speeds of 10 Gbps, 9 - Industry, Innovation and Cisco Systems 5G which is 10 times f aster than 4G's peak Inf rastructure Inc Digitalization, automation and electrif ication are reshaping the mining industry, and of f ering the 8 - Decent Work and Economic Anglo American Digitalization of mining twin promise of cost reductions and ESG improvements Growth Plc Global competition, ef f icient resource utilisation and the need f or improved productivity are driving 8 - Decent Work and Economic CNH Industrial Industrial automation increased automation in the machinery sector Growth NV Connected medical Connected medical devices of f er the potential to improve patient care while lowering costs 3 - Good Health and Well-Being Royal Philips NV devices Some brands are pivoting towards slow f ashion to gain a competitive advantage and mitigate 12 - Responsible Slow f ashion Kering SA environmental and social risks Consumption and Production Shipping f irms f ace pressure to mitigate environmental impacts as the IMO has adopted a AP Møller - Cleaner shipping 14 - Lif e Below Water resolution to cut sulphur and other emissions Mærsk AS Leading banks are incorporating biodiversity assessments into their decision-making process f or De Volksbank Banking on biodiversity 15 - Lif e on Land debt f inancing NV Batteries can help electricity grids regulate f requency and help renewables compete with gas by Energy storage 7 - Af f ordable and Clean Energy Acciona SA f acilitating capacity reserve Some oil and gas majors are investing in an array of low-carbon products, including alternative Big oil transition 13 - Climate Action Total SA energy assets, to diversif y revenue streams Reinsuring climate Some reinsurers are already warning that climate change could render property insurance 11 - Sustainable Cities and Swiss Re Ltd change unaf f ordable f or large segments of the population Communities © 2020 SUSTAINALYTICS CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY 4
Digitalisation of mining Out of sight, not out of mined Forecast capex in the global mining 160,000 industry 140,000 » Automation, electrification and digitalisation offer the possibility 120,000 Capex (USD mn) 100,000 of cost reductions and improved sustainability performance 80,000 (e.g. safety, energy use, water efficiency). 60,000 40,000 » Use of AI to develop optimisation models that boost value 20,000 extraction and productivity across the mineral production chain. 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 » Applications of blockchain for responsible sourcing of minerals. Copper Gold Iron ore Metallurgical coal Nickel Zinc Other Source: Sustainalytics, based on data from S&P Global Market Intelligence » Forecast USD 5.4bn, or 6.4%, drop in capex budget across the industry, placing larger companies at relative advantage to 60.0 Overall Unmanaged RIsk Score 50.0 invest in mining technology projects. 40.0 » Australian miners are early adopters of leading practices in 30.0 automation and digitalization of their assets. 20.0 10.0 » Potential contribution to SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic 0.0 Gro th . © 2020 SUSTAINALYTICS CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY 5
Banking on biodiversity Living Planet Index, 1970-2014 100% The next frontier in green financing 90% 60% of vertebrate animal species extinct since 1970, and 1 million 80% species are at risk of extinction Index value (1970 = 100%) 70% » Strategic consideration of biodiversity can help reduce risk and 60% 50% create new opportunities for banks to provide financial services 40% to sustainable agricultural firms. 30% 20% » Biodiversity is the backbone of natural systems that underpin 10% 0% economic activity, and its loss is a critical but often overlooked macroeconomic risk. Source: Reproduced by Sustainalytics based on data from the Living Planet Index » Intensive agricultural practices are central drivers of biodiversity 5.0 loss, while demand for sustainable agriculture is increasing. 4.5 ESG Integration - Financials Unmanaged RIsk Score, 4.0 3.5 » Sustainable agriculture may be the main solution for improving 3.0 2.5 crop yields and increasing pollinator numbers. 2.0 1.5 1.0 » State-owned, cooperative and development banks are pioneers 0.5 0.0 in integrating biodiversity protocols in blended finance facilities. » Potential contribution to SDG 15 Life on Land . © 2020 SUSTAINALYTICS CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY 6
Insuring a volatile planet Climate impacts threaten reinsurers Number of relevant natural loss events, 1980-2018 900 » Natural loss events grew 2.5 times in 1980-2018, and global Number of relevant natural loss events 800 700 insured losses topped USD 300 bn in the last five years. 600 » The insurance industry is threatened by climate change and 500 400 may be hitting its capacity to take on more climate risk. 300 200 » Insurers and reinsurers are responding by improving the 100 accuracy of models to reduce losses, and adjusting 0 underwriting standards and premiums to better price risk, while also warning about affordability issues. Source: NatCatSERVICE, Sustainalytics » Companies are increasing use of catastrophe bonds and exploring resilience bonds as risk transfer and sharing tools. » More innovation ahead in climate-related insurance products to mitigate the volatility of payouts for natural events losses. » Potential contribution to SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities . © 2020 SUSTAINALYTICS CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY 7
Legal Disclaimers Copyright © 2020 Sustainalytics. All rights reserved. Part of this presentation may contain Sustainalytics proprietary information that may not be reproduced, used, disseminated, modified nor published in any manner without the express written consent of Sustainalytics. Nothing contained in this presentation shall be construed so as to make a representation or warranty, express or implied, regarding the advisability to invest in or include companies in investable universes and/or portfolios. The information provided in this presentation is not intended to be relied upon as, nor to be a substitute for specific professional advice and in particular financial ad ice. The information is pro ided as is and, therefore Sustainal tics assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions. Sustainalytics accepts no liability for damage arising from the use of this presentation or information contained herein in any manner whatsoever. This presentation is not contractual. © 2020 SUSTAINALYTICS CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY 8
For more information, please contact: Enrico Colombo Manager, ESG Research Lead APAC enrico.colombo@sustainalytics.com www.sustainalytics.com
2020 ESG TRENDS TO WATCH Morgan Ellis Vice President, ESG Research © 2020 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
2020 ESG trends to watch • Re-valuing real estate • Climate change innovators • The new human capital paradox • New terms for capital • Keeping score on stakeholder capitalism 2
Re-valuing real estate Investing in the eye of the hurricane 3
Re-valuing real estate: Investing in the eye of the hurricane Exposure to regulations and climate hazards, by real estate market The chart shows the top 21 U.S. cities represented in the MSCI Global Property Index (those with at least 60 geocoded assets covered in the index), classified by the type of regulatory requirements adopted by each and the level of physical risk to which the cities are exposed. The following physical risks were assessed: hurricanes, water stress, and wildfire. Sources: MSCI Real Estate, MSCI ESG Research LLC, American Council for Energy-Efficient Economy, World Resources Institute (WRI), U.S. Department of 4 Agriculture, U.S. Forest Service, MunichRe. Data as of Dec. 31, 2018.
Climate change innovators Spotting the sleeping giants 5
Climate change innovators: Spotting the sleeping giants Green revenue vs. low-carbon patents of companies The chart shows cumulative figures for all patents and low-carbon technology patents from the European Patents Database for the calendar years 2013-2017 and green revenue figures from MSCI ESG Research Sustainable Impact Metrics. Data is for companies that were 6 constituents of the MSCI ACWI Investable Market Index (IMI) as of Nov. 30, 2019, and for patents that were filed during the time period specified and were still effective as of Nov. 30, 2019.Source: MSCI ESG Research
The new human capital paradox Juggling layoffs against shortages 7
The new human capital paradox: Juggling layoffs against shortages MSCI ESG industries by average talent requirements and labor intensity The chart shows MSCI ESG industries plotted by their average talent requirements (from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data on business segments' average employee salary and education level) and average labor intensity (revenue per employee). Data is for constituents of the 8 MSCI ACWI Index as of June 30, 2019. Source: MSCI ESG Research
Thank you! Here’s a summary of recent ESG Research papers, blogs and podcasts Research ESG now papers Blogs podcast • 2020 ESG trends to watch paper • 2020 ESG trends to watch • Episode 63: Indigenous inclusion and carbon offsets can go hand-in- • Women on boards: 2019 progress • CEO Pay: Trick or Treat? hand report • Episode 62: Investors and world • Is climate-change risk all about leaders are finally freaking out • Human capital risks in a changing fossil fuels? Think again about the climate crisis… world • Is the US tech sector ignoring • Episode 61: Wildfire in Australia • China through an ESG lens minority talent? poses problems for all, and a quick take on how we learned to stop • Climate risk in private real estate • Underwater assets? Real estate worrying and love social media for portfolios: What’s the exposure? exposure to flood risk the 2020 election • Episode 60: Diversity data matters • Banking on ESG: Examining the • Looking inside ESG indexes more for investors than financial financial relevance of ESG to banks metrics can show, and the decision by Boeing to halt production of the 737 Max 9
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Responsible Investment Agenda 2020 5 February 2020 By Erin Levey – Vice President, Client Services, Asia Pacific ISS-ESG.COM
RI IN 2019 SOCIAL LICENSE AND BROKEN CONSUMER PROMISES B E T T E R T R A N S PA R E N C Y Vale Facebook Uber Consumers and stakeholders demand a higher level of transparency as the Poor human far-reaching impacts of corporate Infringement of privacy rights due Health diligence impacts behaviour become abundantly clear Health impacts Poor human rights due Anti-competitive diligence behaviour Poor labour standards Alphabet Amazon M O S T C O N T R O V E R S I A L C O M PA N I E S Infringement of privacy Poor labour standards • Vale • Uber • Amazon Poor Poor human Poor human Poor human environmental due rights due rights due Anti-competitive rights due • Facebook • Alphabet diligence diligence diligence behaviour diligence Health impacts 2
RI IN 2019 SOCIAL LICENSE AND BROKEN CONSUMER PROMISES ESG TRENDS ENVIRONMENT SOCIAL GOVERNANCE Bribery Pollution 50% 60% Health impacts 40% 40% 50% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% Infringement of Poor human rights due 20% Poor privacy diligence 10% Anti- Depl etion of 10% Accounting 0% environmental 0% 0% competitive biodiversity Fraud due diligence behaviour Discriminati on Poor labour standards Climate change Money Source: ISS ESG Source: ISS ESG laundering Source: ISS ESG 3
CLIMATE CRISIS T H E S TA N D O U T LO N G - T E R M R I S K T H AT T H E WO R L D I S FA C I N G A R E C O M PA N I E S P R E PA R E D ? of global companies are considered well 6% positioned to mitigate climate risk and seize opportunities related to the transition to a low-carbon economy 97% of Australian listed companies don’t demonstrate strong action to reduce climate impacts 4
CLIMATE CRISIS T H E S TA N D O U T LO N G - T E R M R I S K T H AT T H E WO R L D I S FA C I N G WHERE TO FOR INVESTORS? • Collaborative action via Australian Sustainable Finance Initiative (ASFI) • TCFD – a tool to assess the climate risks of portfolios • Shareholder democracy and climate voting policies 5
PLASTIC TURNING THE TIDE ON POLLUTION W H AT • Global plastic supply chains of growing environmental concern, with very little plastic recycled and most plastic waste ultimately stranded • Multiple issues being tackled include lack of accountability throughout supply chains and lack of sustainable or recyclable alternatives • The plastic waste problem thus presents an opportunity to invest in the development of sustainable plastic alternatives in a market that has no choice but to transition 6
PLASTIC TURNING THE TIDE ON POLLUTION C O N S I D E R AT I O N S F O R I N V E S T O R S • Companies with high plastic consumption now face increasing risks, both operational and reputational • Seek disclosure and commitments related to plastic waste consumption, particularly from companies in high-risk industries • New and promising investment opportunities are emerging in the plastic- alternative space 7
LIVE ANIMAL EXPORT AN ARISING CONTROVERSY W H AT • Existing animal rights concerns over the export of live animals amplified by media footage in recent years exposing cruelty in the industry • The live export industry faces mounting pressure to modify its practices, either by stopping altogether or improving conditions • Companies involved, either directly or indirectly, should expect increased scrutiny and face manifold risks 8
LIVE ANIMAL EXPORT AN ARISING CONTROVERSY E N G A G E W I T H C O M PA N I E S • Transparency regarding involvement in the industry, whether direct or indirect • If involved, transparency regarding treatment of animals • Measures to address welfare concerns, such as policies and commitments 9
WANT TO KNOW MORE? D O W N L O A D T H E F U L L R I A G E N D A 2 0 2 0 R E P O R T: https://www.issgovernance.com/governance-exchange/white-papers/ FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL MEDA: T: @ CAERESGResearch L: @ ISS Caer ESG Research 10
ISS – CANBERRA Level 5, 131 City Walk Canberra City ACT 2601 Australia ISS – SYDNEY Suite 102, Level 1, 56 Pitt Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia I S S - E S G . C O M
ESG Trends to watch: 2020 Key trends in sustainable investing Helena Fung, Head of Sustainable Investment APAC, FTSE Russell ftserussell.com 5 February, 2020 FTSE Russell 1
FTSE Russell is not an investment firm and this presentation is not advice about any investment activity. None of the information in this presentation or reference to a FTSE Russell index constitutes an offer to buy or sell, or a promotion of a security. This presentation is solely for informational purposes. Accordingly, nothing contained in this presentation is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of making any investment through our indexes. Views expressed are subject to change. These views do not necessarily reflect the opinion of FTSE Russell or London Stock Exchange Group plc. FTSE Russell 2
Growing institutional investor desire to address climate risk Range of approaches to analyze and integrate climate risk into the investment process – fundamentally driven by carbon emission data CARBON LOW GREEN FORWARD FOOT ENGAGEMENT DIVESTMENT CARBON THEMATIC/IMPACT LOOKING / PRINTING TILTING INVESTING “2OC” INVESTING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIVITIES UNDERTAKEN BY PRI SIGNATORIES 1 60% Percentage of respondents Investment Managers 50% Asset Owners 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Used emissions data or Sought climate Sought climate change Reduced portfolio Targeted low carbon or Established a climate analysis to inform supportive policy from integration by exposure to emission climate resilient change sensitive or investment decision governments companies intensive or fossil fuel investments climate change ma king holdings integrated asset allocation strategy Source: 1) Investor action on climate change, UN Principles for Responsible Investment & Novethic, 2017. FTSE Russell 3
EU Green Taxonomy Defining green Taxonomy of green activities to achieve six environmental objectives • Provide market clarity on ‘green’ and mobilise capital • Intended for use across asset classes and with upcoming regulation on green investment products • To date only 1 of the 6 objectives covered, climate change mitigation, with adaptation soon to come EU Environmental Objectives “If Europe is to mobilise capital at scale for sustainable development, it needs a 1. Climate change mitigation technically robust classification system 2. Climate change adaptation to establish market clarity on what is 3. Sustainable use and protection of ‘sustainable’. This system would cover water and marine resources a wide range of activities, investments and assets that can be clearly linked to 4. Transition to a circular economy, the Paris Agreement and the waste prevention and recycling Sustainable Development Goals 5. Pollution prevention & control (SDGs).” First recommendation of EU High-Level Expert 6. Protection of healthy ecosystems Group on Sustainable Finance FTSE Russell 4
How is the market responding? The transition to a low-carbon economy is well underway Growing Global green economy $4tn Grown as a proportion of the market cap weighted by total market, whilst green revenue share the fossil fuels sector has shrunk Substantial Diversified Represents 6% of Represents all 3,000 the market company sizes; Global companies with capitalization of small, mid and large exposure to the green economy global listed cap companies* Growth of company exposure +20% to the green economy on 2009 Multifaceted Outperforming Diverse industries FTSE Russell’s and sectors green indexes have addressing outperformed their environmental parent benchmark challenges over the last 5 years** Global Broad geographical coverage with US having the largest exposure * Based on FTSE Russell’s calculations. See FTSE Russell’s annual trends report, “Investing in the global green economy: busting common myths”, May 2018 ** FTSE Russell’s broadest green focused indexes outperforming over 5 years to March 2018 FTSE Russell 5
Green Revenues (GR) – What do companies manufacture? FTSE GR classification: 8 sectors / 60 subsectors >98% of total global market cap. (FTSE GEIS) Universe of 13,500 public companies Companies can map to >1 sector / subsector c. 3,000 cos. generating GRs FTSE Russell 6
Integrating climate considerations An evolving landscape • Investor approaches to climate integration are increasing in sophistication Managing Managing risks & risks… opportunities… Transition alignment 7
FTSE TPI Climate Transition Index Overview of index construction FTSE Russell climate tilts FTSE Developed ex- Apply CW exclusion • Carbon Emissions Korea Index • Fossil Fuel Reserves • Green Revenues Management Carbon Quality tilt Performance tilt • Strong tilt applied to • Meaningful over / FTSE TPI Climate emphasise MQ under weights applied Transition Index performance to carbon intensive companies 8
Climate WGBI integrates climate risks in a comprehensive, robust and transparent manner Climate Risk = Transition Risk + Physical Risk ~ Resilience • 50 countries Transition Risk Physical Risk Resilience quantitatively assessed Index (TRI) Index (PRI)* Index** (RI) on the three climate risk pillars (Z scores) • Future carbon • Sea level exposure • Institutional reduction needed resilience • The scores for the 22 to meet 20C • Agricultural exposure • Social resilience countries in the WGBI warming are then used to • Climate related • Economic • Historic trend in natural disaster resilience separately tilt the index carbon emission exposure away from the market • Ecological resilience value weights WGBI TRI PRI RI Climate Market Value * Score Tilt factor 0.25 * Score Tilt factor 1 * Score Tilt factor 1 = WGBI Weight Weight * 3 factors assessing the fundamental risk of climate related risk to the country ** 23 environmental, economic, social & development indicators 9
Conclusions NOT AN EXCUSE There is now a lot of data available FOR INACTION There are a lot of ways to incorporate climate risk depending on your investment approach Differences in outcomes shouldn’t stifle debate NEED FOR Understanding what it means and tailoring to TRANSPARENCY investment approach ON THE DATA One size doesn’t fit all ENGAGEMENT IS Engage with companies, regulators, KEY governments on risk Greater disclosure will improve the whole approach EVOLUTION OF Whole sector becoming more sophisticated as “LOW CARBON” risks become both greater and more INVESTMENT acknowledged FTSE Russell 10
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