ENVISIONING THE FUTURE OF EDUCATION AND JOBS - Trends, data and drawings - OECD.org
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ENVISIONING THE FUTURE OF EDUCATION AND JOBS Trends, data and drawings
ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION
Envisioning the Future of Education and Jobs: Trends, Data and Drawings is the product of a collaboration between the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UK-based charity, Education and Employers.
The core of this publication, the text and figures concerning trends, is taken from the 2019 edition of the OECD publication, Trends
Shaping Education. The figures at the bottom of pages 5 and 13 are taken from the 2018 edition of Education at a Glance: OECD
Indicators. The figures at the bottom of pages 7, 9, 11 and 15 are based on data from the 2015 cycle of the OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment (PISA). Text concerning employers and employment is provided by Education and Employers.
The children’s drawings that appear in this publication were elicited as part of the Drawing the Future survey, which was conducted
in 2017 by the Education and Employers charity, in partnership with the National Association of Head Teachers (UK), the University
College London Institute of Education, Tes Global and the OECD Directorate for Education and Skills. The survey asked primary
school children aged 7 to 11 to draw a picture of the job they want to do when they grow up. To determine the factors influencing
career choices, the survey also asked participants whether they personally knew anyone who did the job, and if not, how they
knew about the job. Over 20 000 entries were received from the United Kingdom and from Australia, Belarus, Bangladesh, China,
Colombia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Romania, Russia, Switzerland, Uganda and Zambia.
More recently, children attending the primary school in Davos, Switzerland, were also asked to draw their future job. One of their
drawings appears on the cover.
This publication was produced by Andreas Schleicher, Marilyn Achiron, Tracey Burns, Cassandra Davis and Rebecca Tessier at the
OECD Directorate for Education and Skills, and by Nick Chambers at Education and Employers. The report was designed by ChoYou.
This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not
necessarily reflect the official views of the member countries of the OECD.
This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of
international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without
prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
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2 © OECD 2019
FOREWORD
Revolution. Contained within that often-frightening word is another, less-destabilising
one: evolution. If we look at this fourth Industrial Revolution as the end result of a series
of advances propelled by the force of global trends, then we have a better chance of
meeting the challenges it presents, rather than being ambushed by it. We will also be
better equipped to help our children prepare for their future.
This report, the product of a collaboration between the Organisation for Economic
Andreas Schleicher
Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UK-based charity, Education and Director, Education and Skills
Employers, offers a glimpse of how children see their future, and the forces that, if properly OECD
understood and harnessed, will drive them forward to realise their dreams. Through
concerted actions by educators and business leaders, we can help our children develop
the kinds of skills needed not only to weather, but to take advantage of this revolution.
The future will be about pairing the artificial intelligence of computers with the cognitive,
social and emotional capabilities of humans, so that we educate first-class humans, not
second-class robots. It is our responsibility, as concerned adults, to acknowledge and
understand the trends that are shaping this industrial revolution, and to impart that
understanding to our children as early as possible. It is our responsibility, in other words,
to help our children get ready for their future. Nick Chambers
Chief Executive Officer
Education and Employers
© OECD 2019 3
GLOBALISATION
It’s a small world
Everywhere on earth, people are on the move. Air transport of International migration has soared over the past decades too.
passengers worldwide has steadily increased from just over 300 People cross borders for different reasons – to flee conflict, to
million in 1970 to almost 4.1 billion in 2017. The expansion of air seek a better life, to preserve ties to their culture of origin, or to
networks is the result of liberal air regulations and the rise of low- study. Between 1990 and 2017, the total number of international
cost carriers. Air freight (the transport of goods by plane) too has migrants grew from 153 to 258 million people, an increase of 69%.
increased over twelve-fold since 1970. Today, international migrants account for just over 3% of the world’s
population.
These numbers are expected to keep rising, with the strongest
growth coming from Latin America and Asia. Although OECD With global mobility on the rise, classrooms are becoming ever more
countries still account for over half of all air transport, their share diverse. How can education systems better prepare for the inflow
of the total has declined over time. Newly advanced economies, of students from various backgrounds, socio-economic classes and
including those of Brazil, Russia, India and China, have contributed cultures? Are our education and labour systems able to adequately
massively to the recent growth of air transport. recognise prior learning and qualifications?
4 © OECD 2019
GLOBALISATION It’s a small world
More people on the move
Estimates of international migrant stock by region of destination, 1990-2017
300
250
MILLIONS OF PEOPLE
200
150
100
Note: Northern
50 America includes
Bermuda, Canada,
Greenland, Saint Pierre
0 and Miquelon, USA and
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 Mexico.
Source: Trends Shaping
Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania Education, OECD 2019
(UN data).
Growth in international or foreign enrolment in universities worldwide (1998 to 2016)
Number of foreign students enrolled in OECD and non-OECD countries
OECD Non-OECD
5.5
Total: 5.0
5
4.5
MILLIONS OF MOBILE STUDENTS
4 Non-OECD: 1.5
3.5
3
2.5 OECD: 3.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: OECD/UIS/
Eurostat (2018).
© OECD 2019 5
ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY
A change in the weather
The impact of climate change is already seen in higher temperatures, so that our economies and societies can withstand environmental
rising sea levels and more frequent extreme weather events. The shocks and bounce back from them as quickly as possible.
number and severity of natural disasters recorded per year has been
How can education systems help young people develop a greater
steadily rising over the past century. 2018 saw hurricanes, floods,
awareness of the connections between their daily decisions and
droughts and wildfires take thousands of lives.
possible long-term consequences, not just for themselves but for
But efforts to mitigate climate change may be bearing fruit, for society as a whole? What kinds of jobs will a more environmentally
example in the growing use of renewable energy, and in students’ sensitive economy need, and what is the best way to prepare
greater awareness about environmental issues. In addition to limiting students for them?
climate change, it will be increasingly important to build resilience
6 © OECD 2019
ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY A change in the weather
Natural disasters worldwide
Number of recorded events, 1900-2018
600
500
400
Note: Includes those
from drought, floods,
300
biological epidemics,
extreme weather,
extreme temperature,
200 landslides, dry
mass movements,
extra-terrestrial
100 impacts, wildfires,
volcanic activity and
earthquakes.
0 Source: Trends Shaping
Education, OECD 2019
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
(Emergency Events
Database).
Environmental awareness and optimism
OECD average, 2006 and 2015
2006 2015
The consequences of clearing forests for other land use
environmental issues and
something or are familiar
are able to explain them
Students who know
ENVIRONMENTAL
with the following
AWARENESS
The increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Nuclear waste
The use of genetically modified organisms
Air pollution
following environmental issues will
get better over the next 20 years
Students who believe that the
Clearing of forests for other land use
ENVIRONMENTAL
OPTIMISM
Extinction of plants and animals
Water shortages
Nuclear waste
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Source: OECD, PISA
% STUDENTS
Database.
© OECD 2019 7
DIGITALISATION
Data makes the world go round
In 2017, three out of four 16-74 year-olds who accessed the news. Access to information at lower or even no cost is doubtless
Internet used it daily or almost every day – to connect with friends a positive trend; but it can be difficult to determine the quality
and social networks, look up information or access a variety of online and veracity of the information posted on the Internet. Search
services, such as Internet banking. Digital engagement is generally algorithms, which tailor their findings to individual interests, and
higher among younger adults than among older ones, although the the growth of social networking platforms, like Facebook and
differences between age groups are less pronounced today than Twitter, mean that people are more likely to communicate in online
they were 10 years ago. echo chambers, associating with those who hold similar opinions
and beliefs.
Digitalisation can challenge traditional assumptions of civic
participation and public deliberation too. Over the past decade, What are the media and digital literacy skills that citizens need
the number of individuals reading or downloading the news on to navigate through “digital” democracies? Is digital citizenship
line increased by about 40% on average across OECD countries. different from its traditional form?
By 2017, 65% of individuals used the Internet to keep up with the
8 © OECD 2019
DIGITALISATION Data makes the world go round
Reading the news online: Is this for real?
Percentage of individuals reading/downloading the news on line, 2005 and 2017
100
90
2005 2017
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Note: Where the data
10 for countries were not
consistently available in
0
the same years, figures
Norway
Germany
Hungary
Turkey
Italy
Iceland
Korea
Luxembourg
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
Estonia
Czech Republic
Netherlands
Switzerland
Lithuania
United Kingdom
Latvia
Spain
OECD average
Greece
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Poland
Austria
Canada
Portugal
Belgium
Japan
Ireland
France
New Zealand
Mexico
from the closest year
are used.
Source: Trends Shaping
Education, OECD 2019
(OECD data).
Amount of time students spend on the Internet
PISA 2015 At school Outside school, weekday Outside school, weekend
Hours per week PISA 2012 At school Outside school, weekday Outside school, weekend
40
35
30
25
Note: To obtain the
weekly average, the
20 response categories
were recoded with the
15 middle values (e.g. "31-
60 minutes per day"
was recoded as "45.5
10
minutes per day") and
then multiplied by 5 if
5 they refer to a school
day and by 2 if they
0
refer to a weekend day.
Only countries and
Uruguay
Hungary
Italy
Sweden
Denmark
Chile
Costa Rica
Australia
Netherlands
Estonia
New Zealand
Russia
Slovak Republic
Spain
Czech Republic
Iceland
Austria
Portugal
OECD average-27
Singapore
Poland
Croatia
Finland
Latvia
Belgium
Greece
Israel
Ireland
Mexico
Macao (China)
Chinese Taipei
Switzerland
Slovenia
Hong Kong (China)
Japan
Korea
economies with
comparable data from
PISA 2012 and PISA
2015 are shown.
Source: OECD, PISA
2015 Database.
© OECD 2019 9THE 4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
New opportunities
Work has changed. Only a few decades ago, most work was not of AI technologies, measured by inventions patented in the top five
computer-based. But the use of information and communication international patent offices, increased by an average of almost 11%
technologies per hour worked more than doubled across most annually between 1991 and 2015.
OECD countries between 1995 and 2014, and has only increased
What does all of this mean for young people? Among other things, it
since then. The way work is organised is changing too, as remote
implies that a familiarity with technology, mathematics and science
working is now possible for more and more people. At the same
would be useful for many jobs they might do later on. But the
time, the rise of the “gig economy” means that work is no longer
Drawing the Future survey and PISA both show that children’s socio-
tied to a steady job. In 28 out of 33 OECD countries where data
economic background and gender have an effect on their career
were available, labour market insecurity rose between 2007 and
aspirations. Gender stereotyping is particularly evident when it
2015, meaning that the expected loss in earnings associated with
comes to science careers. Though both girls and boys may expect
potential unemployment went up, on average.
to work in a science-related career, they tend to see themselves in
This insecurity is likely to be exacerbated by the progress made very different fields.
in artificial intelligence (AI). Machines that are able to perform
Increasing competition in global research fuels the push for countries
cognitive tasks are expected to become especially important in key
to constantly innovate to maintain their competitive position. Does
sectors, such as healthcare (cancer detection), transport (driverless
education foster and value the creativity necessary to be innovative?
cars) and the environment (smart energy consumption). The growth
10 © OECD 2019THE 4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION New opportunities
The growth of AI technologies
Number of patents in artificial intelligence technologies, 1991-2015
Note: Data refer to
20 000 the number of IP5
patent families in
18 000 artificial intelligence
(AI), by filing date and
16 000
inventor’s country,
14 000 using fractional
Number of patents
counts. AI refers to the
12 000 "Human interface" and
"Cognition and meaning
10 000 understanding"
categories in the ICT
8 000 patent taxonomy as
described in Inaba and
6 000
Squicciarini (2017).
4 000
2014 and 2015 figures
are estimated based on
2 000 available data for those
years.
0 Source: Trends Shaping
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 Education, OECD 2019
(OECD data).
Expectations of science-related careers among boys and girls
OECD average
Students who expect to work as...
...science and engineering professionals ...health professionals
...information and communication technology (ICT) professionals ...science-related technicians or associate professionals
Boys 12.2 5.9 4.8 2.1
0.4
Girls 5.3 17.4 0.8
Source: OECD, PISA
2015 Database, Tables
0 5 10 15 20 25 %
I.3.11a-d.
© OECD 2019 11LIFELONG LEARNING
Learning to work, working to learn
Although the average retirement age in OECD countries has exit age rose from 62 to about 64 years, on average across OECD
remained relatively stable since 1970, longer life expectancy has countries. At the same time, employment rates for individuals
increased the amount of time in retirement, from an average of aged 55 to 64 increased from 53% to 59%, and for those aged
13 years (for women and men) in 1970 to 20 years in 2015. This 60 to 69, from 20% to almost 26%. There was even a modest,
threatens the financial sustainability of pension systems. As a result, 3% increase in workers aged 70 to 74 during the period. It is
many countries have discontinued early retirement policies and becoming increasingly essential for governments and employers
raised the official retirement age. Some have introduced flexible to offer training programmes to maintain and improve workers’ skills
or partial retirement schemes, or created automatic-adjustment throughout their careers. Linear career paths, and clear distinctions
mechanisms for increases in life expectancy. These are intended to between working and non-working time might be things of the
enable older workers to remain active in the workforce by reducing past – and not only for older people.
their working time and compensating lost income with benefits or
Longer working lives and rapidly changing skill demands increase the
a partial pension.
need for continuous learning throughout life. Should some form of
Indeed, between 2006 and 2016, the effective labour market lifelong learning be compulsory? Should lifelong learning be a right?
12 © OECD 2019LIFELONG LEARNING Learning to work, working to learn
Working later in life
Senior and elder (50-74 years) labour participation rates (% of the age group), 2006 and 2016
2006 2016
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: Trends Shaping
50-54 55-64 65-69 70-74 Education, OECD 2019
(OECD data).
1
In 2016 Ireland produced
Public expenditure on training programmes for the unemployed as a percentage of GDP (2015) a modified GNI (GNI*) that
was recommended by the
Economic Statistics Review
Group and is designed to
% 0.7
exclude globalisation effects
that are disproportionately
0.6
impacting the measurement
size of the Irish economy.
2
Reference year is 2014.
0.5
3
Reference year is 2011.
Notes: Countries are
0.4 ranked in descending order
of public expenditure
on training programmes
0.3
as part of active labour
market programmes as
a percentage of GDP.
0.2
Lithuania was not a member
of the OECD at the time
0.1 this graph was prepared.
Accordingly, Lithuania
does not appear in the list
0 of OECD members and is
not included in the zone
Germany
Italy
Norway
Hungary
Denmark
Finland
Ireland1
Austria
France
Portugal
Switzerland
Belgium
Sweden
OECD average
Spain
New Zealand2
Greece
Chile
Canada
Estonia2
Netherlands
Lithuania
Israel
Latvia
Luxembourg
Korea
Slovenia
United States
Czech Republic
Australia
Japan
Poland
Slovak Republic
United Kingdom3
Mexico
aggregates.
Source: OECD (2018),
Labour Market Programmes;
Public expenditure and
participant stocks on LMP.
© OECD 2019 13COLLABORATION AND CO-OPERATION
Working together to create new opportunities
Since the 1960s, many western democracies have moved towards Changing demographics, and a greater emphasis on teamwork,
a multicultural accommodation of increasing ethnic, religious both in school and at work, mean that social skills are becoming
and linguistic diversity. The logic of minority-rights protection is more highly prized in society – and more essential to acquire at the
not restricted to immigrant communities. In fact, it is not even youngest possible ages.
restricted to minorities. Since the early 1990s, an increasing
In a world in which most people will have to collaborate with people
number of countries worldwide have adopted laws to ensure
from different cultures, do education systems have an obligation
equal representation for women in national parliaments, either by
to help young people learn how to appreciate a range of ideas and
setting up candidate gender quotas or reserving seats for women
perspectives – some of which may be far from their own?
in parliament.
To thrive in increasingly diverse classrooms and workplaces,
students and workers need to be able to collaborate with others
who might not look or think like them, or share their beliefs.
14 © OECD 2019COLLABORATION AND CO-OPERATION Working together to create new opportunities
Objective: 50/50
Number of countries with laws defining gender quotas in national legislatures worldwide, 1990 – 2014
Legislated candidate quotas Reserved seats
60
Number of countries
50
40 Note: The figure
includes only quotas
30
introduced at the
national level. It does
not include voluntary
20 party quotas because
the adoption year
10 varies across parties in
a given country.
0 Source: Trends Shaping
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Education, OECD 2019
(World Bank data).
Taking into account others’ interests and performance in collaborative problem solving
Difference in collaborative problem-solving performance between students who agreed/strongly agreed with the
statement "I take into account what others are interested in" and those who disagreed/strongly disagreed with that
statement, after accounting for performance in science, reading and mathematics.
After accounting for gender and students' and schools' socio-economic profile
Before accounting for gender and students' and schools' socio-economic profile
30
Score-point difference
25
Notes: B-S-J-G
(China) refers to
20 Beijing-Shanghai-
Jiangsu-Guangdong
15
(China). Countries and
economies are ranked
in descending order
10 of the score-point
difference between
students who agreed/
5
strongly agreed with
the above statement
0 and students who
disagreed/strongly
disagreed, after
-5 accounting for gender
Norway
Italy
Uruguay
Turkey
Germany
Hungary
Estonia
New Zealand
Russia
United Kingdom
Belgium
Spain
Canada
Costa Rica
Bulgaria
Greece
Chile
Slovenia
Portugal
Sweden
Finland
Netherlands
OECD average
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Thailand
B-S-J-G (China)
Japan
Macao (China)
Iceland
Australia
Montenegro
Denmark
Lithuania
Malaysia
Tunisia
Brazil
France
Singapore
Korea
United Arab Emirates
Hong Kong (China)
Croatia
Mexico
Austria
Latvia
United States
Peru
Chinese Taipei
Israel
Colombia
and students' and
schools' socio-
economic profile.
Source: OECD, PISA
2015 Database, Table
V.5.2d.
© OECD 2019 15GET READY
Linking the world of school with
the world of work
Some 59% of the 7-11 year-olds who participated in the Drawing there was statistically “nothing in common” with adolescents’ career
the Future survey said that they had heard about their preferred aspirations and projected labour market demand. It also found that
job from parents/guardians or other family members. Of those who these young people’s aspirations reflected a narrow view of the
didn’t know someone who did the job, 56% heard about it via TV/ world of work.
film and social media. Less than 1% heard about it from someone
But we can do something about this. Technology now allows us to
who did the job and had visited their school. PISA also finds that
give all children, regardless of their social background, where they
while most 15-year-olds already have an idea about the kind of
live or the jobs their parents do, the same chance to meet people
work they want to do later on, one in three students cites one of
– if not in person, then via the Internet – who do all kinds of jobs,
only 10 occupations.
to help them understand the vast array of opportunities open to
The survey also revealed that the career aspirations of 7-11 year-olds them. It is also essential that employers and educators work far
have little in common with projected labour market demands. One more closely together to help broaden young people’s horizons,
could argue that this is not a cause for concern as children should raise their aspirations, and provide them with the vital work-related
not be encouraged to choose careers at such a young age. But the knowledge and skills that will help them as they make the transition
mismatch between the jobs they preferred and those required in from school to work. Not only will these kinds of efforts give young
the labour market is similar to that found in another Education and people the best possible start in life, they will reduce mismatch
Employers study. That study, entitled Nothing in Common, mapped between young people’s aspirations and the demands of the labour
the career aspirations of 11 000 17-18 year-olds in the United market, thereby ensuring that we have a workforce that will secure
Kingdom against jobs in different economic sectors. It showed that our economic prosperity in the future.
16 © OECD 2019REFERENCES
Chambers, N., J. Rehill, E.T. Kashefpakdel and C. Percy (2018), Drawing the Future, Education and Employers,
London, www.educationandemployers.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/DrawingTheFuture.pdf.
Inaba, T. and M. Squicciarini (2017), “ICT: A new taxonomy based on the international patent classification”, OECD
Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers, 2017/01, OECD Publishing, Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/ab16c396-en.
OECD (2019), Trends Shaping Education 2019, OECD Publishing, Paris,
https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2018-en.
OECD (2018), Education at a Glance 2018: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris,
https://doi.org/10.1787/eag-2018-en.
PISA 2015 database, www.oecd.org/pisa/data/2015database.
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