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ENHANCING NDCS: A GUIDE TO STRENGTHENING NATIONAL CLIMATE PLANS BY 2020 WRI.ORG | NDCS.UNDP.ORG Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 i
ABOUT THE AUTHORS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Taryn Fransen is a Senior Fellow in the We would like to thank the following individuals and institutions for reviewing an earlier Global Climate Program at the World draft of this document: Felicity Morrison, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Resources Institute. Strategy, United Kingdom; Ma. Corazon H. Dichosa, Department of Trade and Industry, Philippines; Cyril Loisel, European Commission; Ron Benioff, LEDS Global Partnership; Contact: taryn.fransen@wri.org Nedal Katbeh-Bader, Minister’s Advisor for Climate Change, Palestine; Ella Havnevik Giske, Ministry of Climate and Environment, Norway; Sabyr Assylbekov, Ministry of Ichiro Sato is a Senior Associate with the Ecology, Kazakhstan; Lukasz Latala, Ministry of Environment, Poland; Ministry of Natural Climate Program and the Sustainable Finance Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus; Rob Bradley, NDC Center at the World Resources Institute. Partnership; Takeshi Kuramochi, New Climate Institute; Natallia Kliavets, Republican Center for Hydrometeorology, Belarus; Yamil Bonduki, UNDP; Michael Comstock, Contact: ichiro.sato@wri.org UNDP; Katharina Davis, UNDP; Maria Eugenia Di Paola, UNDP; Rohini Kohli, UNDP; Kelly Levin is a Senior Associate with Ana Maria Nunez, UNDP; Bahareh Seyedi, UNDP; Alexandra Soezer, UNDP; Kimberly the Global Climate Program at the World Todd, UNDP; Krib Sitathani, UNDP; Mary Awad Menassa, UNDP; Verania Chao, UNDP; Resources Institute. Susanne Olbrisch, UNDP; Fernando Garcia Barrios, UNDP; Bernd Hackman, UNFCCC Secretariat; Niranjali Amerasinghe, World Resources Institute; Pankaj Bhatia, World Contact: kelly.levin@wri.org Resources Institute; Mathilde Bouye, World Resources Institute; Rebecca Carter, World Resources Institute; Subrata Chakrabarty, World Resources Institute; Yamide Dagnet, David Waskow is the Director of the World Resources Institute; Apurba Mitra, World Resources Institute; Eliza Northrop, International Climate Initiative at the World World Resources Institute; Katie Ross, World Resources Institute; Neelam Singh, World Resources Institute. Resources Institute; Ranping Song, World Resources Institute; Joe Thwaites, World Resources Institute; Jacob Waslander, World Resources Institute, and Jesse Worker, Contact: david.waskow@wri.org World Resources Institute. David Rich is a Senior Associate with In addition, we deeply appreciate support during the editing and publication process the Global Climate Program at the World from Billie Kanfer, Carlos Muñoz Piña, Aishwarya Ramani, Emilia Suarez, Caroline Taylor, Resources Institute. and Romain Warnault. Contact: david.rich@wri.org This report was generously supported by the Japan International Cooperation Agency and by the German government. This project is part of the International Climate Initiative Sadya Ndoko is a Technical Consultant with (IKI). The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear the Global Support Programme on National Safety (BMU) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Adaptation Plans at UNDP. Bundestag. Contact: sadya.ndoko@undp.org Julie Teng is a Technical Specialist working on climate change adaptation at UNDP. Contact: julie.teng@undp.org Design and layout by: Billie Kanfer billie.kanfer@wri.org
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Foreword 3 Executive Summary 11 Introduction 21 Establishing a Process for NDC Enhancement 29 Designing an Enhanced Mitigation Component of an NDC 45 Designing an Enhanced Adaptation Component of an NDC 57 Communicating an Enhanced NDC Transparently in Accordance with the Paris Rulebook 65 Conclusions 67 Abbreviations 67 Endnotes 68 References
FOREWORD Next year, 2020, is a key milestone. For the However, for many countries, this ambition must first time since 2015, countries will put forward be met with financial, technological, and capacity- enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions building support. We stand ready to support (NDCs) that go beyond current national climate countries in this process. We echo UN Secretary- plans and bring us closer to the Paris Agreement General António Guterres’ call for countries goals of de-carbonizing economies and improving to lay out a course to enhance their NDCs and resilience. Now more than ever, ambitious action is work towards “net-zero” emissions. This guide is urgently needed to address the global climate crisis designed to assist those who are exploring how to and keep global temperature increases in check. answer that call. This first round of NDC enhancement comes at a We invite countries to work through a step-by-step crucial time. The effects of climate change are being process to identify their best options for enhancing felt around the world in a wide range of forms, NDCs, to learn from country experiences, and to including increased frequency of extreme weather, put forward enhanced NDCs in the next year at a biodiversity loss, rising sea levels, and prolonged key moment for the Paris Agreement—and for our droughts. shared future. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we have only until 2030 to slash emissions nearly in half and limit global warming to 1.5°C. We need rapid and bold paradigm shifts in energy and land use, as well as in areas like industry and infrastructure, in order to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate Andrew Steer Achim Steiner change and achieve our sustainable development President Administrator objectives. This level of ambition must guide the World Resources Institute United Nations NDC enhancement process in 2020. Development Programme (UNDP) New analysis by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and UN Climate Change (UNFCCC) confirms that a significant number of countries are committed to enhancing NDCs. This publication guides governments through this process. The NDC enhancement process is also an opportunity for countries to demonstrate their climate leadership while advancing development benefits—such as improved health, access to clean energy, and economic growth—in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Enhancing NDCs can help capture some of the estimated USD 26 trillion in economic benefits associated with taking ambitious climate action between now and 2030. Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report aims to help government officials identify options for enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in line with the Paris Agreement. It offers guidance on establishing a process for NDC enhancement, enhancing mitigation and adaptation components of NDCs, and communicating NDCs transparently. Additionally, it reflects on aligning NDCs with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and on the role of finance in NDC enhancement. Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 3
Highlights Executive Summary Context ▪▪ At the Paris climate negotiations in 2015, countries The Paris Agreement established a series agreed to establish 2020 as a key milestone in the of five-year cycles to increase ambition, global effort to fight climate change. As part of the including through NDCs that would grow regular five-year cycles to strengthen ambition laid more ambitious over time. Countries also out in the Paris Agreement, countries are requested specifically agreed on 2020 as a critical next step in the Paris process. Countries with an NDC time to put forward nationally determined contributions frame ending up to 2025 are requested to commu- (NDCs) by 2020. nicate new ones by 2020 (UNFCCC 2015a). Those ▪▪ The rationale for updating NDCs, and particularly countries whose NDCs have a time frame ending up to 2030, in turn, are requested to communicate or for enhancing mitigation ambition, is greater than update their NDCs by 2020. This guidance refers to ever: The latest climate science underscores the the process of developing new or updated NDCs as need for ambitious, immediate action to keep the “NDC enhancement.” Paris Agreement goals within reach; technological advances increasingly facilitate ambitious action; It is imperative that the NDC enhancement and the alignment between ambitious climate process deliver greater mitigation ambition. Scientific evidence suggests that the window of action and socioeconomic benefits is increasingly opportunity to limit the global mean temperature well documented and understood. well below 2°C, or 1.5°C, is closing rapidly (IPCC ▪▪ This guidance provides a structure to help 2018). Hence, it is crucial that countries enhance the mitigation ambition of their NDCs by 2020. countries think through the process of enhancing their NDCs along three dimensions: mitigation, NDC enhancement also provides an impor- adaptation, and transparent communication. tant opportunity to make adaptation plan- ▪▪ With regard to mitigation, this guidance places ning more robust and to advance transpar- ent communication of the NDC. Enhancing a priority on enhancing ambition and reducing the adaptation component of an NDC can increase emissions to achieve the temperature goals in the the visibility and profile of adaptation to achieve Paris Agreement, while noting that NDCs can also balance with mitigation, strengthen adaptation be enhanced to strengthen implementation in action and support, provide inputs to the global various ways. stock-take, and enhance learning and understand- ing of adaptation needs and actions. Enhancing ▪▪ Enhancing an adaptation component of an NDC transparency can clarify the emissions level implied depends strongly on a country’s objectives with by the NDCs, facilitate global aggregation of NDCs’ regard to adaptation and the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) effect, their sectoral and the NDC and other adaptation-related processes. GHG coverage, and their underlying assumptions ▪▪ Clear communication of NDCs builds trust and and methodologies, among other elements. facilitates effective implementation. Guidance on communication—or clarity, transparency, and understanding—is based on the Paris Agreement Work Program adopted in 2018. 4
There are many additional reasons to This overarching framework will be supple- enhance NDCs in 2020: mented by more detailed guidance on par- ▪▪ ticular sectors and themes. These subsequent Taking advantage of major technological modules will address electric power generation and advances use, transportation, agriculture, forest and land ▪▪ Avoiding carbon lock-in use, oceans, short-lived climate pollutants, and ▪▪ Reducing transition costs potentially other sectors. ▪▪ Aligning with carbon neutrality and long-term strategies Summary of the Guidance ▪▪ The guidance first presents considerations Building on action by subnational and nonstate for establishing a process to enhance NDCs, actors and then guides countries through the main ▪▪ Seizing opportunities for economic growth and development components of NDC enhancement: mitiga- tion, adaptation, and transparent commu- ▪▪ Maximizing synergies with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) nication (Figure ES-1). Each section presents the rationale for enhancing that component as well ▪▪ as guidance on taking stock of the current situation Attracting climate finance and investment and identifying options for enhancement. Finally, ▪▪ Bolstering implementation it includes examples of additional resources that ▪▪ countries can consult throughout the process of Building broader buy-in from key ministries enhancement. and stakeholders Establishing a clear and inclusive process to About This Guidance enhance the NDC is a vital first step (Figure The objective of this guidance is to help ES-2). In establishing such a process, countries countries design an enhanced NDC for should consider how to ensure coherence with communication to the UNFCCC by 2020. national planning processes, gain support from The guidance proposes an overarching framework affected constituencies and those who will imple- that countries can use to think through the process ment the NDC, define institutional arrangements to of, and options for, updating their NDCs. Its use ensure leadership and coordination, engage stake- is entirely voluntary; countries are free to use it in holders, and develop a work plan with defined roles whole or in part and to adapt it to their national cir- and responsibilities to undertake the enhancement. cumstances as relevant. The guidance is intended For both mitigation and adaptation, countries to complement, but not substitute for, NDC provi- should explore how climate actions in the NDC can sions in the Paris Agreement and the Paris Agree- also help the country achieve national development ment Work Programme. objectives, including implementation of the SDGs. Figure ES-1 | Elements of the NDC Enhancement Process Designing an enhanced mitigation component of an NDC Establishing a process for Communicating an NDC enhancement enhanced NDC transparently Designing an enhanced adaptation component of an NDC Source: Authors. Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 5
Figure ES-2 | Steps to Establish an NDC Enhancement Process 1 2 3 4 5 ESTABLISH PLAN FOR SECURE HIGH-LEVEL DEFINE DOMESTIC DESIGN A INSTITUTIONAL STAKEHOLDER BUY-IN OBJECTIVES WORK PLAN ARRANGEMENTS ENGAGEMENT ▪▪ Prime minister’s or ▪▪ Lead institution ▪▪ Civil society ▪▪ Driving action ▪▪ Roles and president’s office responsibilities ▪▪ Intra-governmental ▪▪ Academia ▪▪ Directing finance ▪▪ Key ministries coordination ▪▪ Private sector ▪▪ Timeline and ▪▪ Generating political milestones ▪▪ Alignment with ▪▪ Subnational actors support development ▪▪ Monitoring ▪▪ Trade unions ▪▪ Mainstreaming objectives mechanisms climate change ▪▪ Vulnerable populations ▪▪ Reflecting mitigation and adaptation in key sectors Source: Authors. In this guidance, enhanced mitigation ambition is defined to mean that the ▪▪ Apply the following diagnostic questions at the sectoral and cross-sectoral level with a view enhanced NDC, if fully implemented, both to identify and fill gaps in the NDC and to results in lower cumulative emissions than enhance its existing elements: the fully implemented initial NDC (Fransen et al. 2017). Countries should undertake the steps Improving Paris alignment described below with a view toward promoting this □□ oes the NDC as a whole, and its treatment D result. of each sector individually, lead to a Countries can undertake the following steps trajectory that aligns with the benchmarks to identify options for mitigation enhance- for achieving Paris Agreement temperature ment and reflect them in their NDCs (Fig- goals? ure Es-3): eflecting new developments, R ▪▪ Take stock of recent developments, including updated GHG inventories, trends in key innovation, and best practices □□ Does the treatment of the sector in the sectoral indicators, changes in national initial NDC reflect up-to-date assumptions policies and measures, actions and plans by regarding available technologies and their nonstate and subnational actors, and economic costs? and technology trends. National emissions projections should also be updated as feasible □□ Does the NDC as a whole, and its treatment and relevant. of each sector individually, reflect the ▪▪ Take stock of long-term objectives and benchmarks to inform NDC enhancement. relevant plans, policies, and measures that are being implemented and considered These include the the global and sectoral at the national level or that ought to benchmarks for mitigation to achieve the be considered based on available best temperature goals in the Paris Agreement, as practices? well as the SDGs and other global and national □□ Does the NDC as a whole, and its treatment frameworks and plans. Review the global of each sector individually, reflect the emissions and associated sectoral benchmarks relevant climate action commitments being associated with the temperature goals in the made by nonstate and subnational actors in Paris Agreement and consider their relevance the country? in the particular country. 6
Figure ES-3 | Steps to Enhance Mitigation in the NDC 1 2 3 4 5 REFLECT TAKE STOCK OF TAKE STOCK OF LONG- IDENTIFY OPTIONS AGGREGATE, ITERATE, ENHANCEMENTS PROGRESS TO DATE TERM OBJECTIVES FOR ENHANCEMENT AND REFINE IN NDC ▪▪ GHG, sectoral, and ▪▪ Global and ▪▪ Improve Paris ▪▪ Aggregate impact on ▪▪ GHG target socioeconomic sectoral mitigation alignment GHG emissions other ▪▪ Sectoral, non-GHG projections benchmarks ▪▪ Reflect new select indicators target(s) ▪▪ National policies ▪▪ SDGs and other global developments, ▪▪ Iterate to refine list of ▪▪ Policies and measures frameworks innovation, and best enhancement options ▪▪ Subnational and non- practice ▪▪ Alignment with long- state commitments ▪▪ Long-term, low-GHG term goals emission development ▪▪ Maximize benefits ▪▪ Development strategies ▪▪ Fill gaps objectives ▪▪ Long-term national ▪▪ Mitigation finance ▪▪ Address finance development plans and implementation issues Source: Authors. Maximizing the benefits as GHG reduction potential, feasibility, and benefits and costs. To the extent feasible, □□ Does the NDC as a whole, and its treatment aggregate the impacts of the proposed of each sector individually, maximize enhancement opportunities and iterate the synergies and reduce potential conflicts previous steps to refine and finalize the list of with development objectives, including mitigation enhancements. ▪▪ climate resilience? Determine how to reflect enhancements in a Filling the gaps revised NDC, whether in the form of a GHG target, a sector-specific non-GHG target, □□ Does the NDC address all relevant sectors, policies and actions, or a combination of the subsectors, and gases? above. ddressing finance and A The following steps can guide countries in implementation issues determining the treatment of adaptation in an enhanced NDC (Figure ES-4): □□ ▪▪ Could the NDC better reflect finance needs for NDC implementation and/or policy Explore the purposes of including an actions to align finance flows with climate adaptation component in the NDC: As goals? a starting point, a UNFCCC decision on adaptation communication (UNFCCC decision □□ Does the NDC address important cross- 9/CMA.1) identifies the following objectives: sectoral interactions? □□ Increasing the visibility and profile of □□ Could the NDC otherwise facilitate adaptation and its balance with mitigation. strengthened implementation? □□ Strengthening adaptation action and reate a list of mitigation enhancement C support for developing countries. options on the basis of the diagnostic questions. □□ Providing inputs to the global stock-take. ▪▪ Refine the list of mitigation enhancement options on the basis of selected criteria, such □□ Enhancing learning and understanding of adaptation needs and actions. Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 7
▪▪ Determine whether to include an adaptation component in the NDC: While integrating country’s adaptation communication, it must be clearly indicated, and the information should be adaptation into the NDC is voluntary, many stored in the UNFCCC registry for adaptation countries opted to do so in the first submission communication. ▪▪ of NDCs. Analyze relevant links, synergies, trade-offs, ▪▪ Based on the results of previous steps, identify elements to be included and how to enhance and opportunities to streamline with other them: As a starting point, the following domestic and international processes; for elements drawn from the UNFCCC decision instance, national adaptation plans (NAPs), 9/CMA.1 on Adaptation Communication national communications (NCs) to UNFCCC, (UNFCCC 2019) could be considered, each with mitigation planning, national or sectoral associated options for enhancement (see main development planning processes, the 2030 text): Development Agenda (SDGs), and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015– □□ National circumstances, institutional 2030. arrangements, and legal frameworks ▪▪ Determine whether the adaptation component in the NDC constitutes the country’s adaptation □□ Impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities communication solely, in part, or not at all. If □□ National adaptation priorities, strategies, the adaptation component in the NDC is the policies, plans, goals, and actions Figure ES-4 | Steps to Enhance Adaptation in the NDC 1 2 3 4 5 DETERMINE WHETHER DETERMINE IDENTIFY ELEMENTS INTEGRATE THE TO INCLUDE ANALYZE LINKS WITH RELATIONSHIP TO BE INCLUDED AND SELECTED ELEMENTS ADAPTATION IN THE OTHER PROCESSES TO ADAPTATION HOW TO ENHANCE INTO THE NDC NDC COMMUNICATION (AC) THEM Examples of functions ▪▪ National adaptation ▪▪ Sole component of AC ▪▪ See main text for details ▪▪ New elements served by including plans ▪▪ Part of AC ▪▪ Updated elements adaptation: ▪▪ National ▪▪ Not related to AC ▪▪ Raising visibility and communications profile ▪▪ Mitigation planning ▪▪ Bolstering action and ▪▪ National/sectoral support development planning ▪▪ Providing inputs to the ▪▪ SDGs global stocktake ▪▪ Sendai Framework for ▪▪ Facilitating learning Disaster Risk Reduction and understanding Note: These steps are explained in the chapter “Designing an Enhanced Adaptation Component of an NDC.” Source: Authors. 8
□□ implementation and support needs of, and provision of support to, developing country ▪▪ Integrate the elements selected into the NDC, with new and/or updated content, using Parties existing information according to the sources of information and processes listed above, and □□ implementation of adaptation actions and complementing this with additional analyses plans and consultations when required. □□ adaptation actions and/or economic Finally, countries can enhance the infor- diversification plans, including those that mation in their NDCs to facilitate clarity, result in mitigation co-benefits transparency, and understanding (CTU) in communicating their NDCs and to fos- □□ an assessment of how adaptation ter alignment with the elements of CTU as actions contribute to other international agreed at COP24 (Figure ES-5). This guidance frameworks and/or conventions outlines how countries can fulfill the information requirements agreed to under the UNFCCC, as well □□ gender-responsive adaptation action as provide additional information that facilitates and traditional knowledge, knowledge of even further CTU. indigenous peoples, and local knowledge systems related to adaptation Figure ES-5 | Steps to Facilitate Clarity, Transparency, and Understanding in an Enhanced NDC 1 2 3 4 Use the list of information Collect information during the Communicate the enhanced to facilitate CTU as agreed Elaborate with additional design of the enhanced NDC NDC domestically and to at COP24 to document the information where possible to ease communication internationally enhanced NDC Source: Authors. Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 9
INTRODUCTION Since its adoption in 2015, the Paris Agreement has cleared two major hurdles. First, it entered into force less than a year after it was adopted. Second, in 2018, countries adopted the Paris Agreement Work Programme, fleshing out the details governing its implementation. Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 11
The year 2020 will mark the Paris Agreement’s next NDCs targeted 2030, but some targeted 2025, and major milestone. To achieve its ambitious long- others targeted years beyond 2030 (WRI 2016). In term goals, the Agreement included a five-year cycle recognition of these and other factors, some coun- to increase the ambition of climate action over time. tries have already made changes to their NDCs in Reflecting the urgency of early action, countries advance of 2020 (Box 1). agreed on the following actions by 2020: Countries with an NDC with a time frame up to 2025 are This 2020 round of NDC enhancement would effec- requested to communicate a new NDC, and coun- tively kick-start the Agreement’s mechanism for tries with an NDC with a time frame up to 2030 are enhancing NDC ambition. To set the stage for this requested to communicate or update an existing moment, the Talanoa Dialogue, a year-long, col- NDC (decision 1/CP.21, UNFCCC 2015a). A deci- lective stock-taking process, concluded at COP 24 sion at the 24th Conference of Parties in Katowice, with an invitation to countries to use its outcomes Poland, (decision 1/CP.24) in 2018 explicitly reiter- in preparing their NDCs. The Talanoa process ated this request for NDCs to be brought forward by included an emphasis on the need for increased 2020 (UNFCCC 2018). ambition and the wide range of opportunities for climate action across multiple sectors that can also Several factors motivated countries to agree that provide development, economic, and other benefits 2020 would be the next moment to submit NDCs. (UNFCCC 2018). First, countries’ initial mitigation targets were insufficient to achieve the Agreement’s broader As with each cycle of NDC communication, this goals, as confirmed by a UNFCCC assessment in moment in 2020 offers countries the opportunity to the lead-up to the Paris negotiations (UNFCCC assess whether the mitigation contributions in their 2015c). Second, many countries had prepared their NDCs reflect their highest possible ambition and initial NDCs without adequate time or capacity to whether they could do more to contribute to collec- fully consider key issues. Developing countries, tive efforts toward achieving the long-term goals of in particular, have noted challenges in developing the Paris Agreement. The need to enhance ambition their first NDCs as well as the need for technical has taken on renewed urgency in light of the IPCC assistance to revisit their NDCs based on the Paris special report on 1.5°C, which underscored the need Agreement (UNDP 2016). Finally, the initial NDCs to halve emissions by 2030 (IPCC 2018). did not set a consistent timeline for action: Most 12
BOX 1 | How NDCs Have Changed to Date While the deadline for updating the first NDCs is not Lastly, some countries improved the transparency of the until 2020, several countries have already changed their NDC since the INDC was first submitted. For example, commitments. Some did so when ratifying the Paris Argentina, Canada, Morocco, and Uruguay have now Agreement, when their intended nationally determined specified the level of emissions that will result if their NDCs contributions (INDCs) were converted into NDCs. are achieved. In the case of Argentina, the country moved Encouragingly, some of these changes have led to from a baseline scenario target to a fixed level target (to increased ambition. For example, while Morocco kept not exceed net emissions of 483 MtCO2e by 2030, with a its baseline scenario target type, it increased the target conditional target of 369 MtCO2e by 2030).* This brings ambition, moving from an unconditional 13 percent greater transparency and assurances that a certain level reduction from its baseline emissions in 2030 (and a of emissions will be achieved. Belize communicated the 31 percent conditional reduction target) to a 17 percent anticipated emissions reductions from its actions. reduction (41 percent conditional reduction target). Note: * Determining whether a new option will enhance a Party’s level of ambition can be technically complex. Consider, for example, an NDC that Other countries added new commitments or actions in contains both a GHG intensity target and a renewable energy target. Say the their NDCs. For example, Morocco added a detailed list GHG intensity target is close to current projections of GHG intensity, but the of 55 unconditional and conditional mitigation actions, renewable energy target vastly exceeds current projections of renewable alongside emissions reduction potential and cost estimates energy capacity. In this case, the renewable energy target is the key driver of ambition, and raising it will likely enhance overall ambition. Conversely, if the for 2030. Nepal added a renewable energy target, and GHG intensity target is more aggressive and the renewable energy target less Uruguay added non-GHG targets for energy, transportation, aggressive relative to current projections, raising the renewable energy target agriculture, land use, and other sectors. may not raise the overall level of ambition. The GHG Protocol Mitigation Goal Standard (WRI 2014a) and Policy and Action Standard (WRI 2014b) provide Some countries, such as Argentina, Benin, Canada, Mali, guidance on GHG accounting that can inform analysis of ambition. This content Pakistan, and Uruguay, also chose to include adaptation, or is adapted from Fransen et al. (2017). expand upon its inclusion, as part of their changed NDCs. Source: Fransen et al. 2017; Ge and Levin 2018. Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 13
Figure 1 | Types of NDC Enhancement MITIGATION AMBITION ADAPTATION Update or add Update or add Update or add information on current & near- monitoring, Strengthen trends, impacts & term planning and evaluation & or add a vulnerabilities action learning plans GHG target Strengthen or add a sectoral non-GHG Update or add target Update or add information on information on gaps & national long-term barriers goals or vision Strengthen or add policies and actions Align IMPLEMENTATION COMMUNICATION implementation of the existing NDC with long-term Add actions Provide basic information to Provide goals or measures additional to strengthen enhance clarity, detail implementation transparency & understanding Source: Fransen et al. 2017. Defining NDC Enhancement On mitigation, the guidance aims to help countries identify opportunities to strengthen the ambition The term NDC enhancement captures the idea of of their NDCs, given the very large emissions gap NDC progression inherent in the Paris Agreement, between the current global emissions trajectory starting with the invitation to communicate new or and the pathway consistent with achieving the updated NDCs in 2020 (Fransen et al. 2017). This Paris Agreement’s goals. We define strengthened guidance considers the following dimensions of mitigation ambition as when an enhanced NDC— NDC enhancement—mitigation (noting that mitiga- including its complete set of mitigation targets and tion enhancements can increase ambition and/or actions, and assuming full implementation—results facilitate enhanced implementation), adaptation, in lower cumulative emissions than the existing and communication—taking into account that the NDC. To determine the effect of NDC enhancement objectives and requirements under the Paris Agree- on mitigation ambition, the cumulative impact of ment vary across these components (See Figure 1). all changes to the NDC, including their overlap with Ideally, the NDC enhancement process will bring one another, must be considered (Box 2; Fransen NDCs more closely into alignment with the goals of et al. 2017). Aside from their effects on ambition, the Paris Agreement, maximize the benefits of the enhancements related to mitigation can also have NDC for development and resilience, incorporate the effect of facilitating stronger implementation, relevant opportunities to strengthen implementa- if countries commit to specific policies and mea- tion, and improve transparency. sures in support of existing targets, including those related to financial flows, coordinated implementa- tion, and greater integration with development. 14
On adaptation, the guidance walks countries guidance on communication is based on the ele- through options for enhancing various elements, ments of clarity, transparency, and understanding taking into consideration their objectives in includ- (CTU) adopted at COP 24 in Katowice (UNFCCC ing adaptation in the NDC as well as the relation- 2018) ship between their NDC and their adaptation communication, building on other processes such These elements of NDC enhancement are neither as the National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). mutually exclusive nor interchangeable. It may be appropriate for a country to enhance its NDC across Finally, enhanced communication is essential “to more than one of these dimensions. build mutual trust and confidence and to promote effective implementation” (UNFCCC 2015b). Our BOX 2 | Terms Related to NDC Enhancement New or updated NDC: From the COP decision adopted action(s) articulated in the original NDC. In determining the together with the Paris Agreement (1/CP.21), these effect on mitigation ambition, it is important to consider the terms refer to the request in the COP decision to Parties cumulative impact of all changes to the NDC, including the concerning NDCs in 2020. A new NDC is one subsequent to extent to which they overlap with each other as well as the the initial NDC when a Party’s initial NDC contains a time targets, policies, and measures in the existing NDC.* frame up to 2025. An updated NDC is one communicated by Note: * Determining whether a new option will enhance a Party’s level of a Party whose initial NDC contains a time frame up to 2030. ambition can be technically complex. Consider, for example, an NDC that contains both a GHG intensity target and a renewable energy target. Say the Enhanced NDC: In this guidance, a new or updated GHG intensity target is close to current projections of GHG intensity, but the NDC that improves upon the initial NDC with respect to renewable energy target vastly exceeds current projections of renewable mitigation (ambition and/or implementation), adaptation, energy capacity. In this case, the renewable energy target is the key driver of and/or communication. ambition, and raising it will likely enhance overall ambition. Conversely, if the GHG intensity target is more aggressive and the renewable energy target less NDC with enhanced mitigation ambition: In this aggressive relative to current projections, raising the renewable energy target guidance, this refers to an NDC that, if fully implemented, may not raise the overall level of ambition. The GHG Protocol Mitigation Goal would result in lower cumulative emissions than the fully Standard (WRI 2014a) and Policy and Action Standard (WRI 2014b) provide implemented existing NDC. It is important to note that a guidance on GHG accounting that can inform analysis of ambition. new, updated, or enhanced NDC may not necessarily lead to Source: Fransen et al. 2017 and authors. enhanced mitigation ambition. The baseline for determining this is the complete set of mitigation target(s) and/or Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 15
Why Enhance NDCs in 2020 around the world. Broadly, the study finds: Renew- able power generation costs continue to fall and The rationale for enhancing the mitigation ambition are already very competitive to meet needs for new of NDCs sooner rather than later is threefold: The capacity. Competitive procurement—including window for climate stability is closing, countries auctions—accounts for a small fraction of global have a growing number of opportunities to enhance renewable energy deployment. Yet these mecha- their ambition, and countries that act ambitiously nisms are very rapidly driving down costs in new will benefit. markets. Global competition is helping to spread The window for climate stability is closing the best project development practices, reducing technology and project risk and making renewables The IPCC has emphasized that large-scale, immedi- more cost-competitive than ever before. In devel- ate transformation is necessary to keep the goals oped countries, solar power has become cheaper of the Paris Agreement in reach. Warming is likely than new nuclear power. For example, the cost of to reach 1.5⁰C as early as 2030 if it continues to a lithium-ion battery pack fell to US$176/kwh in increase at the current rate; CO2 emissions, in turn, 2018, down from $577/kwh in 2014 when many must be slashed by almost half from recent levels INDCs were being developed (Goldie-Scot 2019). by that same year to avoid such an outcome (IPCC 2018).1 Current NDCs are not consistent with these Many countries have made significant progress on goals (Rogelj et al. 2016). Delaying the process of NDC implementation, and some are on track to increasing ambition until 2025 or beyond will dra- meet or exceed their existing targets, including six matically constrain options for achieving the Paris of the G20 countries (UNEP 2018; den Elzen et al. goals. It will mean needing to achieve even more 2019), countries committed to a variety of climate rapid decarbonization, at greater cost, while rely- actions, including post-2020 greenhouse gas ing on unproven technologies. Laying out a more (GHG) reductions. The 2020 process for enhancing ambitious vision now, on the other hand, preserves NDCs offers an opportunity to examine the ambi- countries’ remaining options to achieve the Paris tion of the initial NDCs in light of this progress. objectives. Moreover, cities, states, regions, companies, and investors have announced significant new commit- While some countries’ enhancement of ambition ments to climate action that were not reflected in will clearly have greater impact due to the mag- initial NDCs. At the Global Climate Action Summit nitude of their emissions, the range and number alone, 73 of the world’s largest cities committed to of countries that enhance their NDCs can have an carbon neutrality, 150 major corporations commit- important impact on the political momentum for ted to 100 percent clean energy, and 400 investors strengthened ambition globally. Moreover, if a managing $32 trillion in assets committed to an wide array of countries take action in their NDCs in ambitious climate action agenda, alongside over critical sectors like energy, transportation, land-use, 500 other commitments by nonstate actors (Global and agriculture, doing so can reinforce the politi- Climate Action Summit 2018). In this sense, there cal signals and market drivers for change in those is an opportunity to enhance NDCs to reflect the arenas. national, subnational, and nonstate action that is Opportunities to enhance ambition are growing already under way. Since the initial NDCs were developed, innovation At the international level, the Paris Agreement has flourished and technology costs have fallen, has taken effect, and its modalities have largely alongside other developments that can enable taken shape. Likewise, the Montreal Protocol’s countries to enhance their NDCs. The cost of Kigali Amendment has entered into force, defining renewable energy technologies – including battery a schedule for phasing down hydrofluorocarbon storage and charging infrastructure – has declined emissions. dramatically, opening up possibilities in the power and transportation sectors (IRENA 2018) based on Taken together, these factors create many more the latest cost and auction price data from projects options for climate action than countries were able to consider prior to the Paris Agreement. Nevertheless, these developments do not suggest 16
that enhancing mitigation ambition will be easy process than would be possible in cases where sepa- or straightforward. The scale of transformation rate efforts are made for mitigation, adaptation, needed is without precedent, and many countries and development objectives respectively. face substantial political, financial, and capacity- related challenges in delivering it. This guidance Finally, reflecting enhanced ambition in NDCs may proposes that the 2020 NDC enhancement process also afford countries an opportunity to rally stake- can be an opportunity to rally political support holders in support of implementation and to attract to help overcome these challenges, in light of the finance, technology, and capacity-building support growing number of options, and urgent need, for from the international community. enhanced ambition. How Should This Guidance Be Used? Countries that enhance ambition stand to benefit This guidance aims to help countries through the Although enhanced NDCs are critical to meet the process of designing enhanced NDCs for commu- objectives of the Paris Agreement, countries that nication to the UNFCCC, with a particular focus take ambitious action also benefit domestically. on 2020. Whether a country’s current NDC targets They stand to reap the gains not only of being rec- 2025 or 2030, this guidance assumes that countries ognized for their international leadership, but also will build on their most recent NDC in some way, gains in the form of economic growth and develop- rather than starting from scratch. ment benefits. Evidence of the alignment among The guidance provides a framework that countries climate action, economic growth, and development can use to think through systematically how to go benefits continues to accumulate. On the economic about enhancing their NDCs. While it does not go side, the latest analysis estimates that ambitious into detail on particular sectors, the United Nations climate action could generate $26 trillion in net Development Programme (UNDP) and WRI plan economic benefits between now and 2030 and cre- to publish sector-specific modules over the coming ate 65 million jobs in 2030, while avoiding 700,000 months (Figure 2). premature deaths from air pollution (The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate 2018). Use of the guidance is entirely voluntary; countries are free to use it in whole or in part, and to adapt NDCs can also contribute to achieving a wide range it to their national circumstances as relevant. The of development priorities, including those related to guidance is intended to complement, but not sub- the SDGs, as described in Box 3 (WRI n.d.). These stitute for, NDC provisions in the Paris Agreement synergies include sectors that are clearly related to and the Katowice Rulebook. climate action, such as energy, transportation, land use, and ocean issues, as well as relevant intersec- Support for NDC Enhancement2 tions related to poverty, inequality, health, gender equality, and the broader principle embedded in the Several NDC support programs exist to help SDGs of “leaving no one behind” (IPCC 2018). By countries through a range of NDC-related func- undertaking NDC enhancement in consideration tions, including enhancement as well as design, of mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable develop- implementation, and review. For example, the NDC ment benefits in combination, it is possible to create Partnership, a global coalition of countries and greater benefits, make more informed and equitable institutions, works to drive transformational cli- decisions on trade-offs, and design more efficient mate action through sustainable development. The Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 17
Figure 2 | Overview of NDC-Related Guidance by UNDP and WRI DESIGNING (I)NDCS IMPLEMENTING NDCS ENHANCING NDCS Power Transportation Forests Implementing NDCs Agriculture DESIGNING AND PREPARING UNDP et al (forthcoming) INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS (INDCs) Oceans KELLY LEVIN, DAVID RICH, YAMIL BONDUKI, MICHAEL COMSTOCK, DENNIS TIRPAK, Short-lived climate pollutants HEATHER MCGRAY, IAN NOBLE, KATHLEEN MOGELGAARD, AND DAVID WASKOW WRI.ORG | UNDP.ORG Additional sectors and themes Source: Authors. partnership’s Climate Action Enhancement Package Programmer, NDC Pipeline Accelerator, NDC is designed to deliver targeted, fast-track support Market Booster, and NDC Finance Mobilizer. to NDC Partnership members to enhance the qual- ity, increase the ambition, and foster the imple- ▪▪ The NDC Support Programme under UNDP works with countries to advance the mentation of NDCs. Many initiatives, including the implementation of the Paris Agreement and ones mentioned below, support countries with their strategically use their NDCs as a tool for internal resources or with resources designated for realizing inclusive, zero-carbon, and climate- Climate Action Enhancement Package: resilient development. ▪▪ The Africa NDC Hub, established by the African Development Bank, engages ▪▪ The World Bank NDC Support Facility is a multi-donor trust fund created and designed national, subnational, nonstate actors, and to help developing countries implement climate private sector representatives on appropriate change targets laid out in the NDCs. Grants policies, strategies, and actions tailored to provided by the facility contribute to activities suit individual needs of African countries to that include capacity building, analytics, enable them to deliver their climate change coordination among development actors, and commitments under the Paris Agreement. financial leverage for climate action. ▪▪ NDC Advance is a platform of the Asian Development Bank aimed at helping its ▪▪ World Resources Institute provides knowledge products and technical support to developing member countries in Asia and the countries focused on NDC enhancement and Pacific mobilize funding to meet their goals related topics, including developing long- under the Paris Agreement. term strategies; adaptation planning; capacity ▪▪ NDC Invest, created by the Inter-American Development Bank and the Inter-American building; and systems for measurement, reporting, and verification. Investment Corporation, serves as a one-stop shop for countries to access resources for transforming their national commitments into achievable investments plans, including NDC 18
BOX 3 | Aligning with and Reflecting SDGs and National Development Goals By addressing intersections between climate objectives. The assessment process can Assessment Institutions Network 2017). action and other national development goals in enhanced NDCs, countries can strengthen also help ensure alignment among the NDC and SDGs and other national development ▪▪ Climate Watch database (WRI n.d.) and the NDC-SDG Connections tool (Stockholm the NDC content itself, as well as broaden buy- objectives. In many countries, the NDCs and Environment Institute n.d.) enable users in and support for the NDC’s commitments. their national development and SDG plans are to examine the ways in which targets and There are two principal ways in which these not adequately linked and sometimes even actions in existing NDCs are relevant for intersections can be addressed: have contradictory objectives; for example, SDG-related objectives, which can then involving strategies for energy sources 1) Assess the development effects of be considered in the development of (renewables or other sources). Alignment potential climate actions and include or enhanced NDCs. is critical to achieving a country’s climate- modify the NDC to maximize benefits related and other goals. 2) Specify targets or actions that reflect Based on an assessment of the development development benefits of climate action The impact assessments can also be used impacts of specific climate-oriented targets to consider ways in which benefits might be The NDC can also explicitly specify targets and measures in the NDC, countries can maximized (e.g., to increase energy access or actions that reflect and aim to maximize modify the NDC to maximize mutual benefits provided as part of a renewable energy the benefits from climate action or reduce with other development objectives and target or action) and instances in which any any trade-offs. These targets or actions address potential trade-offs. Importantly, this trade-offs may need to be addressed (e.g., can be derived from the assessments can be relevant for both the mitigation and impacts on ecosystems or food security of climate actions in the NDC or can be adaptation components of countries’ NDCs. due to bioenergy production). In addition, developed through reference to other Impact assessments can be quantitative—for impact assessments can be helpful in national development plans and strategies. example, quantitative assessments and identifying indicators that a government may For example, NDCs could include targets or modeling have been used often to assess use to measure and assess outcomes from policies for the employment or health effects of climate policies—or qualitative, to determine the implementation of the NDC. Assessing impacts and identifying a comprehensive set of impact ▪▪ increased energy access, particularly through distributed renewable energy, and potential linkages between climate policies indicators can also provide information and and other development objectives and the energy security; ▪▪ increased signals for public and private investment and estimated magnitude of any relevant effects. help steer capital, including low-cost finance, access to affordable, In assessing the effect of climate actions to flow to implementation of NDCs. sustainable transportation and mobility; that might be included in an NDC, it will be Impact assessments and policy decision- ▪▪ improved air quality and health outcomes; necessary to do the following: making for the NDC can draw on the following ▪▪ reduced ▪▪ Clearly damages from climate-related identify the target or policy to be resources that provide guidance for such disasters through adaptation measures, assessed. In some cases, it may be difficult assessments: such as better land-use planning or to undertake quantitative analysis of the ▪▪ Initiative for Climate Action Transparency’s integrated coastal zone management; impact of broad sectoral targets (such as renewables’ share of overall energy), so Sustainable Development Guidance provides guidance for assessing the ▪▪ sustainable food and agriculture systems, particularly through measures that it may be necessary to define policies to environmental, social, and economic increase food security; ▪▪ climate-appropriate achieve the target. impacts of climate-related policies and ▪▪ Clearly identify the impact(s) to be actions, including both qualitative and quantitative assessments (Initiative for green jobs and/or just transition programs and investments; ▪▪ health-related assessed.* Impacts can be derived from the SDG targets or from other development Climate Action Transparency 2018). objectives, such as objectives, including those reflected in a country’s national or sectoral development ▪▪ UNDP Climate Action Impact Tool provides a framework for considering the reductions in local air pollutants linked to GHG reductions or reductions of climate- plans. These could include effects such development impacts, including for the sensitive diseases such as water-borne as those involving health, employment, SDGs, of climate actions at the program illnesses; and food security, energy access, access to and project level (UNDP n.d.). ▪▪ gender-related objectives, such as to sustainable transport, poverty level and inequality, and gender-related objectives. ▪▪ SDG Climate Action Nexus tool provides mapping for the effects of various climate ensure women’s access to clean energy and securing their rights and tenure to Although impact assessments require actions on achieving the SDGs (New land, water, forests, and housing and capacity and resources, they can be helpful Climate Institute n.d.). their access to resilience measures, and ▪▪ International to identify and clarify priority actions of an to promote women’s participation and Labour Organization training leadership in decision-making processes. NDC and to enable effective communication guide on measuring and modeling social among various relevant ministries and Note: * The ICAT Sustainable Development Guidance and employment outcomes of climate agencies about how climate action in the provides options for identifying impacts to be and sustainable development (Green Jobs NDC relates to other national development assessed. Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 19
ESTABLISHING A PROCESS FOR NDC ENHANCEMENT 3 A process for NDC enhancement may take into account how to secure high-level buy-in, establish institutional arrangements, engage stakeholders, define objectives for enhancement, and design a work plan. The NDC enhancement process should be inclusive, clear, and coherent with other national planning processes. Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 21
Rationale ments that can be harnessed for this purpose, including those that were used to develop the The process for NDC enhancement will drive the intended INDC. However, given that many of the content of the NDC and will ultimately underpin its INDCs were designed quickly in the lead-up to the successful implementation. NDC enhancement will Paris Agreement, NDC enhancement can also be an benefit from buy-in at the highest levels of govern- opportunity to revisit and improve the NDC design ment and from clear and coordinated institutional process. arrangements. A robust stakeholder engagement process can also greatly strengthen support for the The NDC enhancement process as a forward-look- enhanced NDC. Likewise, explicitly articulating the ing exercise and the NDC enhancement milestone domestic objectives of NDC enhancement can focus for 2020 are only the starting points of the Paris attention on key interventions. Finally, a work plan Agreement’s ambition mechanism. The design of with clear roles and responsibilities will drive the processes to enhance the NDC, including institu- process forward (Figure 3). tional arrangements and stakeholder engagement, would benefit from having this long-term view It may not be necessary to establish new processes included, so that long-term capacity is built, and and institutional arrangements for NDC enhance- governments do not have to start from scratch only ment; some countries may have existing arrange- a few years later for the next NDC cycle. Figure 3 | Steps to Establish a Process for NDC Enhancement 1 2 3 4 5 ESTABLISH PLAN FOR SECURE HIGH-LEVEL DEFINE DOMESTIC DESIGN A INSTITUTIONAL STAKEHOLDER BUY-IN OBJECTIVES WORK PLAN ARRANGEMENTS ENGAGEMENT ▪▪ Prime minister’s or ▪▪ Lead institution ▪▪ Civil society ▪▪ Driving action ▪▪ Roles and president’s office responsibilities ▪▪ Intra-governmental ▪▪ Academia ▪▪ Directing finance ▪▪ Key ministries coordination ▪▪ Private sector ▪▪ Timeline and ▪▪ Generating political milestones ▪▪ Alignment with ▪▪ Subnational actors support development ▪▪ Monitoring ▪▪ Trade unions ▪▪ Mainstreaming objectives mechanisms climate change ▪▪ Vulnerable populations ▪▪ Reflecting mitigation and adaptation in key sectors Source: Authors. 22
1) Secure High-Level Buy-In Identify a lead institution Despite their technical nature, NDCs are inherently If political support for NDC enhancement has political. They commit the countries to climate been secured from the prime minister’s office, action, steer economic and social change, and serve president’s office, or other high-level institution, as an official communication to the UN Climate it can be helpful to situate the lead of the NDC Change Secretariat. Support from the prime minis- enhancement process within that office to maintain ter’s or president’s office to initiate the process can buy in. Alternatively, the institution that has been help those tasked with NDC enhancement to gain initially charged with INDC design and/or NDC cooperation from stakeholders within and outside implementation may be most appropriate to lead of government. Buy-in from powerful ministries, NDC enhancement in an effort to sustain technical such as those in charge of planning or finance, expertise and ensure that the NDC builds on the should be viewed as fundamental. existing processes and available information, such as the bi-annual update reports, the National Com- Unless such ministries are already supportive of munications (NCs) and NAPs. If such an institution enhancing the NDC, it will likely be necessary sits within the environment ministry, ensuring that to explore the benefits and importance of NDC the lead institution has joint responsibility with enhancement to the country. Some countries might finance and/or planning ministries can strengthen find that it is easier to engage and sustain leader- alignment with national budget frameworks, ship if the NDC enhancement process is approached investments, and development agendas (Levin et in the context of development and poverty eradi- al. 2015). Ideally, if time allows, legal mandates cation, linking climate change to other domestic can be established for roles and responsibilities of priorities such as improving access to energy. In both the lead institution as well as others provid- the context of NDC implementation, some coun- ing inputs. Engagement with parliament will be tries have found that having the opportunity to critical for some countries for establishing such announce their intentions internationally can help mandates. Some countries may have mechanisms catalyze the process and attract high-level political to secure such roles and responsibilities on a more attention, building political profile and showcas- rapid timeline, such as through a memorandum of ing leadership (NDC Partnership forthcoming). understanding. Some countries have also found that peer-to-peer exchanges can help pique the interest of the minis- Provide for intra-governmental coordination try of finance. For example, in an exchange between Given the cross-cutting nature of the NDC, it is Honduras and the Dominican Republic, organized critically important for the lead institution or by the NDC Partnership Support Unit, Honduras another body to manage cooperation in the interest gained greater appreciation of the financial oppor- of a whole-of-government approach (Sands et al. tunities related to NDC implementation from the 2012). Coordination across government institutions Ministry of Economy, Planning, and Development as well as relevant planning processes can increase of the Dominican Republic (NDC Partnership efficiency, the quality of inputs, and eventual imple- forthcoming). While this example is with regard to mentation. If a suitable coordination body (e.g., a NDC implementation, lessons may be applicable climate change committee) does not already exist, to engagement of various ministries during NDC the lead institution or another new body can be enhancement processes. made responsible. Ideally, the coordination process 2) Establish Institutional Arrangements will account for The INDC design process illustrated the important role that a lead institution plays in managing the ▪▪ all relevant ministries, including ministries not traditionally associated with the formulation design process, as well as coordinating with affected of climate change policy, such as gender, social sectors, local governments, technical experts, civil development, and health; society, and the private sector. The same is true for NDC enhancement. ▪▪ the roles of parliament and the judiciary, as applicable; Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans by 2020 23
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