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vol 38 | Quarter 1 2020 ENERGY news Decarbonising Australia’s Energy System official journal of the australian institute of energy aie.org.au Q1 2020 | ENERGYNEWS |1
contents Energy News 6 14 International Standard Serial Number, National Library of Australia: BloombergNEF Hydrogen's ISSN 1445-2227 forecasts potential Print Post Approved No: PP 100000796 REGISTERED OFFICE AND POSTAL ADDRESS Australian Institute of Energy PO Box 576, Crows Nest NSW 1585 Tel: +61 2 9431 8694 or 1800 629 945 aie@aie.org.au www.aie.org.au ABN 95 001 509 173 20 22 Decarbonising Siemens Energy EDITORIAL mining Transition Radar ENERGYNEWS is published by the Australian Institute of Energy (AIE) and is provided to all members as part of their membership subscription. Non-members may obtain copies of this journal by contacting the AIE Secretariat or the Editor: editor@aie.org.au Articles from AIE members and non- members on energy matters, letters to the editor, personal notes and 25 28 photographs of those involved in the energy sector are welcomed. Publication of articles submitted is at the sole and absolute discretion of Q&A with Rooftop solar the Australian Institute of Energy. The Jessica Shaw MLA potential editor reserves the right to amend and reduce the length of articles as required and takes full responsibility for any accidental errors. Statements made in the journal do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute. Unless otherwise stated, Regular Features all currency denominations are in Australian dollars (AUD). 1 presidents report 49 PODCASTS ADVERTISING Members and non-members 42 AIE Branch NEWS 52 CALENDAR may place paid advertisements in ENERGYNEWS on behalf of themselves or their organisations. Advertisements can include products, services, consulting, positions vacant and required. Discounts are available for members and for all advertisements repeated in two or more issues. Advertising rates are listed at www.aie.org.au/energy- news-journal Q1 2020 | ENERGYNEWS | 3
President’s Message Promoting understanding and awareness of energy issues and the development of responsible energy policies in Australia aie President’s Message Welcome to the Australian Institute of Energy's first quarterly journal of 2020 A lot has happened since our last issue of The AIE plays an important role in providing ENERGYNEWS. The AIE has started the decade an independent forum in which to build with a fresh new look and has welcomed a new, understanding and awareness of energy issues and dynamic and gender-diverse team on the AIE promote the development of responsible energy National Board. policies in Australia. I would like to thank Leigh Morpeth for his service We recognise that the recent Coronavirus as President over the last two years, and his (COVID-19) pandemic is a major concern for our continuing support in the role of Vice President. members and is causing disruption across the I would also like to thank retiring directors Denis nation. We will be taking appropriate measures Cooke and Albert Thompson. We are grateful that in response to advice from the Australian both Denis and Albert continue to be involved in Department of Health and the World Health their local branches. Organisation, including postponing some of our The National Board met in February 2020, and planned events. I was delighted to welcome our new directors We will also be looking at alternative forums Glen Currie, Kylie Wilkie, Samantha Christie and for discussion of critical energy issues and new Nicholas Gurieff. opportunities to deliver value to our members. The board has a number of projects in the pipeline In this issue of ENERGYNEWS we explore the that we are excited to share with you over the major issue of decarbonising Australia’s energy coming months, including a new website and sector. These include BloombergNEF’s outlook for membership offering. transitioning to low carbon technologies, BDO’s view on opportunities for decarbonisation in Australian mining, and the prospects for hydrogen as a low carbon energy carrier. We also interview Jessica Shaw MLA on the findings of Western Australia's inquiry into microgrids and the potential they offer for improving electricity supply reliability in remote regions while helping integrate distributed energy resources such as rooftop solar, storage systems and EVs. The findings of the inquiry are timely, as across Australia bushfire-affected areas look to build resilience and reduce cost. Katharine McKenzie, AIE National President president@aie.org.au An energy policy specialist and commercial The new AIE National Board photographed by lawyer, Katharine has extensive experience across fellow board member Charles Rendigs: (left to the electricity and gas sectors. She is presently right) Samantha Christie, Mena Gilchrist (Hon. Secretary), Leigh Morpeth (Vice President), Principal Policy Adviser to the Western Australian Stephanie Moroz, Glen Currie (Hon. Treasurer), Energy Minister, and sits on the WA Government’s Katharine McKenzie, Jeremy Schultz, Kylie Energy Transformation Taskforce and Renewable Wilkie, Steve Blume and Nicholas Gurieff Hydrogen Council. 4 | ENERGYNEWS | Q1 2020
News IN BRIEF GREEN SCHEMES IN THE PILBARA Western Australia’s remote Pilbara is fast becoming the favoured location for projects looking to install large renewable arrays, some of which will be used to generate ‘green’ hydrogen. The region’s plentiful solar hours, wide open spaces and proximity to major resource projects are driving the interest. In February, ARENA announced it would part-fund a feasibility study by Yara Pilbara Fertilisers to explore making green hydrogen work at industrial scale. The Pilbara-based Asian Renewable Energy Hub and Murchison Renewable Hydrogen projects are also looking to generate hydrogen Jeff Connolly, Siemens (left) from renewables for local and export use. And this month, Rio Tinto and Terry Kallis, Hydrogen said it would invest $100-million in a solar and storage scheme to Renewables Australia, shake help power its Pilbara-based electricity network and Koodaideri iron hands on the Murchison project ore mine. EV NUMBERS ON THE RISE WORLDWIDE There are now over 7.9 million electric vehicles on the road worldwide, according to a survey by the Germany-based Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW). Global numbers of EVs rose by 2.3 million in 2019 compared to the previous year. China remains the undisputed world leader with over 3.8 million e-cars on the road, followed by the US with nearly 1.5 million. In terms of registrations, more than one in every two new passenger cars in Norway is electric. This 57% share is the largest worldwide. By comparison, EVs account for 3% of new registrations in Germany, 5% in China and 2% in the US. Tesla proved the most popular EV for buyers in 2019 with 361,000 of its EVs registered worldwide: zsw-bw.de/mediathek/ Tesla’s Model 3, currently the datenservice best-selling EV worldwide GE’S BATTERY BLACK-START AGN PLANNING GLADSTONE HYDROGEN PLANT BREAKTHROUGH AGIG-owned Australian Gas Networks (AGN) is planning a GE has successfully completed a hydrogen plant in the Queensland port of Gladstone, home first-of-its-kind backup support to three LNG export terminals. The $4.2-million plant will be system by deploying a battery Australia’s first renewable hydrogen production facility able energy storage to black start a to deliver up to 10% blended hydrogen across the city’s total heavy-duty gas turbine. A black 770 residential, small commercial and industrial customer start consists of rebooting an idle base. Construction is set to begin in November with the plant power plant without support from expected to be fully operational by December 2021. Earlier this the grid in the event of a major month, AGN was allocated $1.28 million in ARENA funding to system disruption or a system- establish the Australian Hydrogen Centre (AHC) that will study wide blackout. To do this, operators injecting renewable hydrogen into gas distribution networks in typically use a dedicated diesel South Australia and Victoria. generator. GE’s 7.4 MW battery- based energy storage system was paired with the GE 7F.03, a 150 MW simple cycle gas turbine at Entergy Louisiana’s Perryville Power Artist's Station in the US to black start the impression facility. The project demonstrates of AGN’s the complementary nature of gas- Gladstone powered energy and battery storage hydrogen for system reliability. facility Q1 2020 | ENERGYNEWS | 5
Feature The first phase of the transition is about electricity, not primary energy By Seb Henbest, Chief Economist, BloombergNEF 6 | Energy News | Q1 January 2020
Feature are highest at and make up 21% of total around 63%. It installed capacity and 13% of can also help generation. to explain why In 2018 a record 108 GW of solar many of the PV was deployed worldwide, as world’s most well as 50 GW of wind power. eminent energy In 2019 the industry looked on experts have track to beat all records with underestimated 121 GW of PV and 67 GW of the growth wind. This year, we estimate to date of another 138 GW of PV and 70 renewable GW of wind. But how might this energy, and its continue? future potential. The New Energy Outlook (NEO) If we consider is BloombergNEF’s annual that the long-term analysis of the future electricity of energy. It draws together sector the work of over 65 in-house consumes analysts across the world to about 38% describe a future, least-cost, of fossil electricity system. fuel production – and that Often we hear that wind and The headline conclusion is renewables make up 25% solar might be great and that a combination of cheap of electricity, and wind and growing fast, but despite years renewables, batteries, and other solar PV make up 25% of that of deployment and government new sources of flexibility grow – it is easy to see how these support they are still just 1% worldwide to reach almost 50% technologies can get lost in the of primary energy and so can’t wind and PV in the electricity noise of a much larger primary possibly replace fossil fuels in supply by 2050, with solar energy analysis. the world energy economy. growing from around 2% to 22% Renewables are certainly not Primary energy might be the of electricity, and wind from 5% the one-size-fits-all solution that right lens through which to to 26%. enthusiasts sometimes claim. think about energy when there In contrast, the share of fossil However, if we think of the are few alternatives to fossil fuels in power declines to energy transition in phases, then fuels, or if you’re an oil, gas, 31% from 63% today while we need to think of wind, PV or coal company, for which hydro and nuclear see modest and lithium-ion battery storage primary energy describes the growth or remain flat, the as ‘Phase I’ decarbonization product you sell. However, the former constrained by resource technologies that, if deployed world economy does not run on availability, the latter by a to their full potential, can make primary energy, it runs on final combination of high costs and a a big dent in greenhouse gas energy. That’s the energy we lack of flexibility. emissions and buy us time to consume to heat and light our develop something else for At its core, NEO is a story of buildings, run our vehicles, and ‘Phase II’. technology disruption and power industry. The world has been adding nothing reflects this better The major difference between than solar PV. Since 1976 we more renewable power capacity primary and final energy is waste than fossil fuel power capacity have seen a rapid fall in the heat, though there are also some since 2015. Today, renewables price of crystalline silicon PV losses from energy transport. (excluding large hydro) account modules, down from US$80/W Altogether, around a third of for almost 68% of new additions, to US$0.27/W in 2018, and primary energy is lost before it can do anything useful. “In Australia, one in five households already has rooftop Thinking about the world in PV. In the state of South Australia, it is one in four with terms of primary energy also masks the important role of rooftop PV accounting for more than half the system load electricity where heat losses at certain times” Q1 2020 | ENERGYNEWS | 7
Feature around US$0.25/W in 2019. where wind parks can be its equity hurdle rate of return. Just since 2010 PV module developed economically. Overall, When we do this, we find that prices have fallen 85%. Driving onshore wind energy has a 15% the cost of renewable projects this are manufacturing scale learning rate. have now fallen to such an and ongoing deployment. The In recent years, the cost of extent, that today two-thirds relationship between price and offshore wind has come down of the world population live volume can be represented by faster than most expected. somewhere where wind or PV, or an experience curve. This is due to the combination both, are the cheapest new-build For PV, the experience curve of larger turbines offering electricity option. And in Japan, describes a 28.5% decline in cost better park layouts and fewer Poland or Turkey where coal for every doubling of capacity. foundations, and less cabling remains cheaper, or in Russia That’s perhaps not as steep as and maintenance. Larger where gas remains cheaper, equivalent curves seen in the projects are also pushing the 1 this first tipping point in the semi-conductor industry, but it’s GW mark offering economics economics is imminent. of a similar order of magnitude. of scale. Finally, growing global We are also seeing firm How long this relationship will supply chains and developer downward pressure on new hold is unknown, but bottom-up experience and improved wind and PV project costs from analysis looking at innovation policy design are boosting the more and more capacity being in PV manufacturing on a economics. awarded via tender or auction. component-by-component Both solar PV and wind are the Here, competition between basis makes us confident that product of large-scale modular developers continues to reveal the industry won’t hit technical manufacturing industries incredibly low prices, which in limitations anytime soon. that find continuous micro- turn has squeezed margins all along the supply chain. Looking out to 2025 and innovations in production 2030, we expect all-in cost efficiency, materials and Most recently, on 21 November of energy from new solar PV energy use. The cost of these 2019, the Dubai Energy and to drop another 14% and 22% technologies declines with Water Authority awarded a respectively. every unit deployed. And this contract for 800 MW of PV to Saudi-based ACWA Power and “If we expect renewable technology costs to continue to Kuwait-based Gulf Investment Corporation with an impressively decline along their experience curves, then it’s a matter of low bid of US$16.95/MWh. when, not if, new-build wind or PV drops below the cost of This followed the lowest bid on running existing, commissioned coal and gas plants” record of US$16.30 (¤14.80/ MWh) from French developer Wind technology has also been is fundamentally different from Akuo Energy which won 150 MW getting cheaper. The price of large, fuel-based power plants in Portugal’s first solar auction in wind turbines is down 40% which are pieces of complex August. since 2010 on a per megawatt system engineering, and where Already this year we have basis with an experience curve 50% of the lifetime cost of seen 63 GW of new renewable of around 11%. But while unit a coal plant and 70% of that capacity awarded via auction – declines are less impressive than for gas plants are due to fuel more than ever before – with a PV, wind remains competitive prices, themselves subject to further 97 GW announced for with solar energy because each commodity cycles. future rounds. The lowest bid MW of wind yields more energy. By taking technology costs, for new onshore wind energy to This improvement in capacity balance of plant, operations, date is in Mexico where Italian factor comes from taller turbines maintenance and financing costs utility Enel won a total of 593 that can access faster wind into account, we can calculate MW, including a bid of US$17.70/ speeds, and bigger swept-area- the levelized cost of electricity MWh. to-power-output ratios that (LCOE) for new renewable and These prices need to be read increase the energy captured fossil fuel assets alike. cautiously as they hide a long list where the wind is weaker. The LCOE is the average offtake of contract particularities that Newer turbine models are also price needed across a project obscure the full lifetime cost of widening the range of locations lifetime for a developer to meet the projects. For example, some 8 | ENERGYNEWS | Q1 2020
Feature bids are for delivery in future In China, our calculations time-of-use load shifting, large years and developers can bake- suggest new onshore wind will reservoir hydro and pumped in an expectation of cheaper be cheaper than running existing hydro, network interconnection, equipment; projects also usually coal-fired power as early as and gas peaker plants that run have a longer life than the length 2024. And in the US, which has on-call for a small number of of contracts awarded; and some the cheapest gas in the world, hours per year, can all offer include inflation factors or new-build wind and PV look flexibility. differential tariffs. However, even likely to be cheaper than running However, the most compelling if we levelize these bids, they most existing combined-cycle technology story is lithium-ion remain incredibly cheap and the gas plants by 2030. batteries. Batteries can shave costs are generally much lower As these critical points are peaks and can help PV meet than those of new coal or gas reached, renewables can start demand when the sun has gone plants. to take market share from down, and wind meet demand commissioned coal and gas when it’s not blowing. However, If we expect renewable most importantly, like PV and technology costs to continue to plants, which consequently wind, lithium-ion batteries are decline along their experience see lower capacity factors and getting cheaper, fast. curves, then it’s a matter of higher generation costs. The price of a lithium-ion battery when, not if, new-build wind But there is an obvious problem pack is down 87% since 2010 on or PV drops below the cost of – wind and PV are not always a volume-weighted basis from running existing, commissioned available – so looking at the US$1,160/kWh to US$156/kWh, coal and gas plants. LCOE alone is not enough. according to BloombergNEF’s This second ‘tipping point’ Ultimately what’s needed is December 2019 annual survey. happens at different times in additional flexibility, both on the At the same time, battery energy different countries, depending supply and the demand side to density and cycle life continue on the quality of renewable help support variable renewables to improve – the former up more resources and fuel prices, but and ensure security of supply. than 67% since 2011. Like PV and it happens sooner than most Demand response, including wind, this decline in costs is the people might think. both capacity turn-down and result of manufacturing scale Q1 2020 | ENERGYNEWS | 9
Feature and innovation, with battery depending on what’s available. ELECTRIC VEHICLES pack demand rising 100-fold They are also being used in The fall in battery prices is the from 2010 to 2018. some markets by large energy result of growing demand from The relationship between price users to lower demand charges, the EV industry. EV sales growth and volume here describes and grid operators to avoid slowed a little in 2019, but we an 18% learning rate, so as costly network upgrades. still expect a record 2.2 million manufactured volume increases However, in the future we vehicles, up from 1.9 million in over time, we expect costs expect most batteries will find 2018, and just over 1 million in will continue to fall to around value in load shifting – that is, 2017. At the end of Q3 2019 US$94/kWh in 2024 and charging when renewables are there were 6.5 million EVs on the US$62/kWh in 2030. Right abundant and prices low, and road, over half of those in China. now there is 366 GWh per discharging during high value The uptake is being driven year of commissioned lithium- hours when renewables are in part by tighter tailpipe ion battery manufacturing offline and prices spike as more emissions standards in US, capacity worldwide. Based on expensive generation ramps up. China and Europe that require manufacturer commitments, by We can already see a pipeline auto manufacturers to sell more 2022 that number is set to rise of co-located renewables-plus- EVs to balance sales of their more than three-fold to 1,239 storage projects. If the battery internal combustion engine (ICE) GWh. is small enough, these can be models. There are currently 370 battery- “The most compelling technology story is lithium-ion electric and plug-in hybrid batteries. Batteries can shave peaks and can help PV meet EV models on the market demand when the sun has gone down, and wind meet worldwide, and by this time next demand when it’s not blowing. Most importantly, lithium- year there will be 428. ion batteries are getting cheaper, fast” More models means more choice, and more likely a buyer will find an EV option that suits To give a sense of future scale- competitive today, while lower their needs. On the other side of up, in 2018 demand for lithium- cost, larger batteries are starting the ledger, purchase subsidies, ion batteries for electric vehicles to look in the money. tax breaks and scrappage overtook demand for lithium- schemes are helping drive Our calculations suggest the ion batteries for consumer consumer uptake. Governments cost of co-located wind-plus- electronics, and in most markets are also starting to send longer- storage and PV-plus-storage EVs currently only make up 2% term signals to the market. projects with larger four-hour or less of the on-road fleet. So far, 13 national governments, storage systems will fall over While lithium-ion battery as well as 30 states and 40% by 2030. chemistries aren’t always municipal governments, have a perfect fit for stationary That means renewable energy announced phase-out plans for energy storage applications in can reach more high-value hours ICE vehicles. Norway is the most the power sector, they have a when they would otherwise be ambitious country-level target, significant cost advantage over unavailable, competing directly aiming to ban ICEs by 2025. other technologies. Today, a with new coal or gas projects for Other European countries four-hour lithium-ion battery capacity by the mid-2020s. such as Denmark, Sweden and system charging from the grid Netherlands are aiming for In India, for example, we think has an average levelized cost 2030, and the UK, France and these co-located systems will of around US$167/MWh, and as Canada for 2040. Cities tend to look more economic than new battery costs decline we expect be more ambitious, with Madrid, pithead coal-fired generation by this to fall to US$79/MWh by Rome, Athens and Mexico City 2024. 2030. aiming to be ICE-free in six Today, most business cases And by the mid-2030s batteries years. Los Angeles, Cape Town for large-scale batteries rely charging either from the grid and Brussels are some of those on stacking revenues from a or from a co-located coal asset aiming for 2030. combination of energy, capacity could be cheaper then running Around 30% of the cost of a and ancillary service markets, existing coal or gas plants. battery EV is the battery pack, 10 | ENERGYNEWS | Q1 2020
Feature so cheaper batteries means ultimately be as important as million barrels of oil per day by cheaper EVs which, according how much load they add. 2040. to our analysis, should reach Many energy suppliers in the Consumers are not just starting upfront price parity with US and Europe already offer to buy EVs, they are also equivalent ICE models as soon EV-specific rate structures that changing the energy system by as 2023. From that point we provide a strong incentive for installing their own PVs, and in expect uptake to accelerate, off-peak charging at night. some places they are also now reaching 30% of new vehicle adding batteries. Small-scale If an EV can be plugged in sales worldwide by 2030, and PV deployed on rooftops and during the 95% of the time a 57% by 2040, up from just 3% commercial buildings has grown today. normal car is stationary, whether strongly in markets with good that’s at home, at work, or out- By 2040, around 42% of cars on solar resources and high, or and-about, then owners can the road in the US are expected rising, retail electricity prices. charge at the cheapest times, to have a plug. In Europe it is In Australia, one in five and the power grid benefits from 38%. Worldwide there are set to households already has rooftop greater demand-side flexibility. be around 576 million EVs on the PV. In the state of South road in 2040. All these EVs do With the growth of close-to-zero Australia where I’m from, it’s one two things: they add electricity marginal cost PV and wind, we in four and rooftop PV accounts demand, and they reduce oil expect these tariffs to shift more for more than half the system demand. vehicle charging to the middle of load at certain times. the day when solar generation is Growth in electric vehicles As solar gets cheaper more accounts for 3,950 TWh, or 9%, at its best. households and commercial of electricity demand in 2050. Growth in EVs, and fuel economy facilities will add PV to offset Again, this differs by region. improvements, mean we think their retail electricity bills. In the US, EVs draw 16% of oil demand from road fuels And as the cost of lithium- electricity in 2050, in Europe should peak around 2030, with ion batteries continues to fall, 15%, in Australia 13%, and in the combination of alternative adding storage alongside PV China 10%. However, the hours drivetrains and growth in shared also starts to look more and of the day when EVs charge will mobility displacing around 15 more attractive. Q1 2020 | ENERGYNEWS | 11
Feature Consumer uptake can be by large amounts of PV during For example, the US energy rapid when price and market the day, supported by wind in transition is dominated by penetration meet critical the evenings and batteries that cheap natural gas which thresholds and a copycat effect charge and discharge over short grows to 45% of generation in drives steep adoption S-curves timeframes. In this new system, 2030 as it replaces aging coal where uptake accelerates back-up and curtailment are a infrastructure. Once new gas from early adopters to the feature, not a bug. plants are commissioned, they mass market, before reaching are cheap to run and tend not Firstly, there are limits to what saturation. to face strong competition wind, PV and batteries can do from battery systems for their Our diffusion modelling for together. This is because there dispatchable hours this side of consumer PV, and PV-plus- are days and weeks during the 2050. battery products, shows that year when wind and PV simply Wind and PV grow too but more by 2050, 10-30% of power can’t produce enough electrons slowly, making up just 35% of capacity assets could sit behind- to meet demand, no matter how electricity by mid-century. In the-meter in major markets, many batteries are installed. China, coal generation grows with electricity demand in the “No longer do large coal or gas plants run around-the-clock short to medium term, but we at high capacity factors, supported by smaller peakers. think China will build its last coal plant by 2025 and sees peak Instead, cheap variable renewables form the backbone of coal generation in 2027. After the system, supported by batteries and conventional plants this, coal declines at around 2% running at low capacity factors” per year, and by 2050, wind and PV makes up 48% of China’s electricity supply. highlighting a massive shift in Some of the peakiest parts of Coal-fired power is the first system value downstream. the load might be met with fossil fuel casualty of the energy Looking at the NEO results at demand response, but that’s transition, according to our a regional and country level limited. That means these modelling – peaking globally in to 2050 shows that Europe systems need to call upon 2026 and falling to just 12% of transitions furthest towards dispatchable back-up. electricity in 2050, from around renewables, and does so fastest. Secondly, there are weeks and 37% today. The combination of low cost months when renewables are bulk renewables, carbon pricing, This transition is most stark running flat out producing more and competitive batteries, in Europe and the US, where electricity than is needed in real propel wind and PV to over 80% coal-fired power continues time and more than the battery penetration by 2050 in some its recent decline, down 90% fleet can store. European states. Those where to 2050 in the US where it’s At these times we have undercut by cheap natural gas nuclear, hydro or biomass can too much capacity and get and renewables, and down 97% play a major role get close to curtailment. But this is still in Europe where coal phase- 100% zero-carbon. An 80% variable renewable energy least-cost, because as PV out plans, cheaper renewables system looks very different from and wind get cheaper, they and batteries, as well as carbon the power systems with which remain competitive despite not pricing, force it out of the mix. we are familiar. producing useable electricity Coal continues to grow in China during every hour of operation, and South East Asia into the No longer do large coal or gas that is, at lower and lower mid-2020s, and India until the plants run around-the-clock at capacity factors. late 2030s. high capacity factors, supported by smaller peakers. Instead, Ultimately, we think almost every The outlook for gas-fired power cheap variable renewables form country could technically get to remains relatively flat, as growth the backbone of the system, around 80% wind and PV before in the US is offset by longer- supported by batteries and reaching seasonal limitations, term decline in Europe where it conventional plants running but most would need to deploy is increasingly beaten on cost by at low capacity factors. This new renewables much faster to the combination of renewables configuration is characterized do so this side of 2050. plus batteries. 12 | ENERGYNEWS | Q1 2020
Feature In Asia, gas is beaten by cheap loads long distances is going The good news is that ‘Phase coal and renewables. Gas grows to need something with better I’ can buy us time. But only if 0.6% per year, supplying system energy density than a battery. PV, wind, batteries and EVs are back-up and flexibility rather Heating is also highly seasonal deployed as fast, or faster, than than bulk generation in most which means a lot of energy the NEO suggests. At the same markets. However, gas capacity demand is concentrated in a few time, government needs to start doubles to help ensure security months of the year. It also has making a market for the ‘Phase of supply, with combined-cycle a particular intraday pattern, II’ decarbonization technologies. plant up 37%, and peaker units ramping up in the morning as And let the private sector start that can ramp quickly to meet people wake up and turn on investing. daily and seasonal extremes up their heating, and again in the Further information on 350%. evening when they arrive home. BloombergNEF’s New From a climate perspective, the If a country like the United Energy Outlook is available NEO is somewhat optimistic. Kingdom were to shift to 100% at: about.bnef.com/new- It concludes that a least-cost electric heat, the coldest days energy-outlook/ deployment of renewable might drive a three-fold increase energy would keep power in winter peak power demand, sector emissions on track for right at the time when solar a 2-degree trajectory, but only generation is at a nadir. until around 2030. Beyond In industry, high temperature that, decarbonization would heat is required for iron and need to be hastened by policy steel production, chemicals, intervention. To achieve a 1.5 cement, aluminum and glass, degree trajectory as envisaged among others. While electricity by the Paris Agreement will need can technically provide high much more rapid transition than temperature heat, most economics alone can deliver. technology options are still at Achieving net-zero emissions by early stages of development. the second half of the century Furthermore, in chemicals means there is nowhere to hide manufacturing, for example, for those slow on the uptake, fossil fuels also provide the raw and no room for unabated materials, and in iron and steel fossil fuels. In particular, net- production, they are chemically zero emissions targets ask involved in the process itself. serious questions about energy Even in the power sector, transition pathways for industry we’ve seen that around 20% and buildings. of electricity demand is going One pathway is to switch to to be very difficult to supply electricity to hitch a ride on the with wind, PV and batteries – back of the renewable energy our ‘Phase I’ decarbonization juggernaut. As discussed, this technologies – alone. To get to is already well established for net zero we are going to need a road transport, even some of the ‘Phase II’. commercial vehicle segments. Perhaps the answer is nuclear, It is also possible to use more hydro or solar thermal? electricity for space heating in Perhaps it’s carbon capture buildings, as well as low- and with permanent sequestration? medium-temperature industrial Or perhaps we are going to processes. need a clean molecule such However, going electric isn’t a as hydrogen? What we know This article first appeared in universal solution. Yes, there is for sure is that right now, all the January 2020 edition of interesting progress being made the options we can list have Papeles de Energia entitled in short-haul electric aviation limited potential or are far from ‘Perspective on the Energy and shipping, but moving heavy commercially viable. Transition’. Q1 2020 | ENERGYNEWS | 13
The emerging Feature hydrogen market of Australia: a 2020 update By Luigi Bonadio 14 | ENERGYNEWS | Q1 2020
Feature Hydrogen is gathering significant momentum globally as it shifts to becoming an economically- viable and flexible fuel, energy carrier and enabler for the rapid and widespread deployment and international trade of renewable energy. The evaluation of commercial business opportunities for hydrogen will rely on the critical evolution and interrogation of technological, economic, social, environmental and political drivers and barriers. This article provides a broad overview of these drivers and barriers and covers recent developments across the emerging hydrogen industry. TECHNOLOGY Other than in a few isolated cases, most of the necessary technology underpinning the development of a hydrogen industry exists and has been operated safely with acceptable performance on at least the pilot scale. The distributed use of hydrogen as a fuel and energy carrier to service mobility and The market appetite for hydrogen has grown power generation markets leverages off its appreciably with automotive companies, power, extensive utilisation across a number of process gas and water utilities, manufacturers of fertilisers, and manufacturing industries (chemicals, urea and explosives, mine operators and local petrochemicals, hydrogenation of oils, glass, councils now investing in hydrogen plant and pharmaceuticals, microchip cleaning, space hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle trials across industry, turbine cooling). Australia. It also benefits from the various production Many other large and small companies are options available including the gasification of coal, seriously evaluating the scale and timing of their steam reformation of methane, partial oxidation of future investments in hydrogen with a meticulous hydrocarbons, electrolysis of water and biological watching brief on the critical hydrogen production production. The Hazer Group based in Western costs and break even points. Australia has developed a novel process using natural gas and unprocessed iron ore to create a The mobility sector is the early mover in the low cost and low emission ‘clean’ hydrogen. global hydrogen industry led by Toyota, Hyundai and Honda in the light duty vehicle sector and Hydrogen’s versatility lends itself to orderly by Nikola, Toyota and Hyundai in the heavy duty transitions from a high energy dependence on vehicle sector. fossil fuels to renewables and biofuels and from highly centralised to distributed energy systems. There are 432 hydrogen refuelling stations currently in operation worldwide, with 226 planned Hydrogen is safely transported over short and long for commissioning and over 19,500 light duty fuel distances in pipelines via dedicated compressor cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) on the world’s streets units or via compressed or liquid hydrogen tube at the end of 2019 (US: 42%, South Korea: 26%, trailers. It can be safely stored in gaseous, liquid or Japan: 19%, Europe: 13% and China: 1%). Placed solid forms for mobile and stationary applications over short and long periods of time in any location orders dominated by Asian buyers are set to and on any scale, ranging from micro canisters for increase this to over 50,000 by the end of 2020. hand-held mobile devices to large storage vessels Market opportunities exist for both battery electric for bulk transport and intercontinental export. vehicles (BEVs) and FCEVs for short, regular, urban Hydrogen unit operations are integrated with travel. However, owing to high volumetric density the use of dedicated hydrogen lines, valves and and fast refuelling, hydrogen FCEVs are deemed vents with hydrogen flows tightly controlled more suitable for long distance travel of heavy and accurately measured. Hydrogen leaks can duty vehicles such as trucks and coaches. be identified by sensors and ultrasonic gas leak Moreland City Council in Melbourne is trialling two detectors. Toyota Mirai FCEVs. Australia’s third hydrogen Q1 2020 | ENERGYNEWS | 15
Feature refuelling station will be built at the old Bulwer stages of development for the provision of space Island Refinery in Brisbane to fuel QFleet’s FCEVs. heating in commercial buildings and as a source of Other proposed hydrogen mobility projects are industrial process steam and heat. planned for the City of Ballarat and Canberra. Yara Fertilisers, Incitec Pivot and H2 Utility are There is also a growing level of development and trialling renewable hydrogen plants for ammonia trialling of hydrogen fuelled trains, trams, boats, production in Western Australia, Queensland and ships and fuel cell electric planes. South Australia, respectively. BOC, Origin Energy, In the power generation sector, turbines in the Woodside Energy, H2 Utility, Renewable Hydrogen order of 440 MW nominal capacity running Australia and Siemens are planning for the bulk on a mixture of natural gas and hydrogen and export of hydrogen or ammonia. Queensland’s dedicated hydrogen fuelled turbines utilising Minister for State Development, Cameron Dick Wet Low Emissions Technology are being trialled announced at the Central Queensland Hydrogen by Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems, GE Power, Forum on 26 February 2020 that H2 Utility had Siemens Energy and Ansaldo Energia for large purchased a 171 hectare site in the Gladstone State scale, low emissions power generation. Development Area to build and operate a 3 GW Proton-exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells PEM electrolyser for the production and export of remain a relatively expensive cost component in green hydrogen and ammonia. hydrogen systems at $1,000/kW, but have reached energy efficiency and performance targets for ECONOMICS market acceptance, particularly for mobility The net present value and internal rate of return applications. of renewable hydrogen projects and, to a large Jemena, Atco Gas and Australian Gas Networks extent, the growth of a renewable hydrogen (HyPark South Australia and HyPark Gladstone) market are largely dictated by electricity costs. are all investing in trials of hydrogen for natural Utility-scale wind and solar PV farms in specific gas substitution in pipelines, some with the locations across Australia are providing abundant, financial support of government funding. affordable and reliable energy at a low-end The Australian Hydrogen Centre plans to inject levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of $34/MWh and up to 10% renewable hydrogen into the gas $45/MWh, respectively. This represents a LCOE distribution networks of selected towns in the less than coal plants that at best are producing states of South Australia and Victoria by end- power at a LCOE of $60/MWh. 2022. Hydrogen-fired boilers are also in the early Even though the rate of LCOE reductions from Figure 1: Fuel cell market sales by region, MW (2015-2019) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Europe North America Asia RoW Source: The Fuel Cell Industry Review 2019, E4 Tech, 2020 16 | ENERGYNEWS | Q1 2020
Feature solar PV and wind have eased over recent years, PEM electrolyser capital costs are forecast to renewable hydrogen cost is estimated to drop into drop into the range of $400 to $600/kW within the range of $2.0 to $3.2/kg H2 in many locations five years, adding to the viability of large scale across Australia by 2030 and below or close to the hydrogen export projects, the replacement of break-even point for various applications (trucks: diesel generators for remote area power systems $3.6/kg, cars: $2.9/kg, ammonia production: $2.5/ and microgrids and the supplementation of power kg and refinery hydrogen separation: $2.5/kg). across transmission networks for grid firming. The largest known electrolyser located in Namie, An operator of hydrogen refuelling stations in Japan just north of former Fukushima Daichi California is aiming to sell hydrogen over the next nuclear plant, has just started operating at a 3-5 years at US$10/kg (US$0.98 per litre of petrol). nominal capacity of 10 MW. It can produce enough Although FCEVs are relatively expensive lying in hydrogen to full 560 hydrogen FCEVs. Toyota’s the US$40,000 to US$60,000 range, they are new model Mirai FCEV is reported to travel starting to offer total cost of ownership parity 30% further than the standard model per kg of with BEVs for applications that require long range hydrogen consumed. and heavy payload. As such, they are projected to Construction of Air Liquide Canada’s 20 MW be less expensive to run than BEVs and internal (3,000 tonnes per annum) electrolyser system combustion engine (ICE) vehicles within 10 years. in Becancour, Quebec is underway and due for Hydrogen mobility applications are currently completion by year’s end. There are two 20 limited by the prohibitive high cost of hydrogen MW (4,000 normal cubic meter per hour) PEM refuelling stations compared to petrol and diesel electrolyser plants planned for construction in refuelling equivalents. Europe that are estimated to produce hydrogen at The Asia Pacific hydrogen market is accelerating a cost of US$6.0/kg ($9.18/kg). This is predicted to faster than any other (Figure 1) and is estimated to drop by 60% to US$2.6/kg by 2030. reach a value of ¤30 billion ($52 billion) by 2030. The Commonwealth Minister of Energy the Hon. Investors are pinning their hopes for long term Angus Taylor has recently appointed Australia’s financial returns on the continued performance Chief Scientist Dr Alan Finkel to lead a committee and cost improvements stemming from: that will work on reducing electrolytic hydrogen • the development of new, highly specific and production costs in Australia to less than $2.0/kg readily available composite and other materials H2. Dr Finkel is confident that hydrogen can be for catalyst coatings, membranes and storage produced in Australia for as low as $1.20 by 2050. vessels; Dr Finkel has noted that these are critical • the system optimisation of integrated hydrogen projections as “if hydrogen production can achieve systems; and the same level of commercial competitiveness as that achieved by solar and wind generation in • cost reductions from increased manufacturing the electricity sector, it could create a substantial and installed plant capacity and deployment. economic opportunity for Australia, generate The Cooperative Research Centre for Future about 7,600 jobs and add about $11 billion a year in Fuels, CSIRO and many universities and research additional GDP by 2050. If global markets develop organisations across the globe are working faster, it could mean another 10,000 jobs and at on novel materials, system efficiency and cost least $26 billion a year in GDP”. reductions for advanced hydrogen technologies Table 1: Emissions intensity of different hydrogen production routes in Australia Production route Emissions (kg CO2e/kg H2) Electrolysis – renewables 0 Electrolysis – grid 40.5 Coal gasification - with CCS (best case) 12.7 - 16.8 Coal gasification – without CCS 0.71 Steam methane reforming - with CCS 8.5 Steam methane reforming - without CCS 0.76 Q1 2020 | ENERGYNEWS | 17
Feature and optimum pipeline, electrolyser, fuel cell, operates a hydrogen refuelling station to fuel a storage and integrated hydrogen system designs. Toyota Mirai FCEV, demonstrating and raising awareness and community acceptance of the ENVIRONMENTAL technology. Generally speaking, there appears to be greater Certified hydrogen technology training programs market acceptance and a positive reception to the from genuine experts and skills development at economic and environmental benefits of hydrogen. all levels of professional, trades and academic It is clear that renewable hydrogen will provide the education should be implemented as soon as best environmental outcome, even when the land possible. impacts of solar farms and challenges with the recycling of spent solar cells and wind blades are POLITICAL included (Table 1). AIE members will recognise the critical importance Many argue that investment in and adoption of of monitoring technological and regulatory renewable hydrogen should be accelerated ahead developments abroad and the implications of an of the cost curve, due to the broad economic increased reliance on imported crude oil, refined impacts of climate change as the global average petroleum products, industrial chemicals and carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) concentration automotive vehicles and components. soars above 410 parts per million. Although many China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the US, the Australian and global businesses are committing UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and significant resources to the decarbonisation of other European countries are leading the global their operations, over 40% of ASX 200-listed charge in hydrogen with billion-dollar investments companies have yet to set emission reduction in commercial-scale mobility and renewable targets. energy projects. Although renewable electricity generation in Many European countries, India, Mexico and Australia is increasing at over 10% per year California have set dates when the sale of petrol and contributes to over 20% of all electricity and diesel-fuelled ICEs will be prohibited while generation, its contribution to primary energy others have set clear targets on raising numbers of production lies below 1%. It remains an imperative FCEVs and publically-funded hydrogen refuelling to pursue all low carbon technologies as soon as stations. The UK government is currently seeking possible inclusive of hydrogen and carbon capture views on bringing forward the date when sales and storage (CCS) – and possibly nuclear – if we of new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars and vans are to come to terms with the gravity of climate will cease from 2040 to 2035, or earlier if a faster change impacts and the profound challenge ahead transition appears feasible. to ameliorate them. As an importer of automotive vehicles, Australia SOCIAL will inevitably have to develop a hydrogen supply Recent studies and surveys by the University of network to support FCEVs or hydrogen fuelled- Queensland have identified gaps in the knowledge ICEs. Low domestic reserves of diesel fuel, the and understanding of hydrogen technology and cessation of Holden’s domestic operations and what can and cannot be reasonably achieved over Australia’s high dependence and vulnerability short and long terms. Conservative perhaps cynical to Chinese demand for LNG give rise to national energy practitioners continue to harbour deep concern, particularly if we are slow to adapt and felt reservations citing concerns with fundamental respond to international developments. thermodynamic limitations, low efficiencies and In any case, the emergence of a hydrogen relatively high costs associated with hydrogen industry can play a critical role in boosting trade production, compression, storage and conversion. and stabilising the energy security of Australia These concerns mirror the same doubt over the and its neighbours, a key driver that has largely future viability and cost of solar PV systems many been overlooked in recent hydrogen fora and years ago. discussions. Community awareness and acceptance of Many countries – some our not too distant hydrogen as a safe and reliable fuel is mandatory, neighbours – will not be able to generate enough particularly as hydrogen will be utilised in our hydrogen to satisfy their future domestic energy cars, for heating and cooking in Australian homes, needs and will inevitably be heavily reliant on offices and industrial plants in the near term. The hydrogen imports. Net energy importing countries Toyota Hydrogen Centre in Altona, Melbourne such as Japan have articulated geopolitical 18 | ENERGYNEWS | Q1 2020
Feature "Net energy importing countries such as Japan have articulated geopolitical reasons for preferring to source their hydrogen from stable economies such as Australia" reasons for preferring to source their hydrogen Standards Australia has appointed Rachelle from stable economies such as Australia. Doyle from Woodside Energy to lead its ME-093 The recent groundswell of interest in hydrogen Hydrogen Technologies committee charged with is in no short measure the result of the sustained the development, modification and adoption of co-ordinated efforts of the National Hydrogen new and existing Australian and international Taskforce led by the Commonwealth Government’s standards covering hydrogen generation, storage, Alison Reeve, Nicole Henry and Dr Alan Finkel who transport, refuelling, fuel cells and health, safety presented the National Hydrogen Strategy (NHS) and environment. to the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) Deliberations of the ME-093 committee late last year after extensive consultation with are geared to harmonising Australian and government and industry stakeholders. international standards and easing local regulatory In a rare, landmark national achievement, the or compliance barriers to hydrogen project recommendations of the NHS were unequivocally development and operation. Adelaide hosted the and unanimously endorsed and accepted by 5th International HySafe Conference last year with COAG Energy Ministers, presenting opportunities proceedings confirming that hydrogen does not for the accelerated development and scale up of pose any additional safety risk to operators and hydrogen pilot and research projects. consumers over and above conventional fuels. The NHS extends the initiative of State New hydrogen lobby and advocacy groups governments that have scoped out or are developing dedicated hydrogen strategies, including The Australian Hydrogen Council roadmaps and policies to establish frameworks (formerly Hydrogen Mobility Australia), The to support greater market uptake of hydrogen Hydrogen Society of Australia and the Smart and draw private investment into their states Energy Council’s Hydrogen Australia have been economies. formed to advance the cause. Dr Finkel has provided much-needed leadership The local hydrogen industry is poised for in hydrogen over and above his core role as a significant development over the coming years. scientific advisor to government. Although not What is not clear is how quickly it will evolve as a popular perspective to share, he and others a mainstream commercial fuel and commodity have identified that hydrogen demand cannot be and on what scale. This is an area of industry satisfied by renewable hydrogen alone and not development that will hold great interest to AIE well after 2050. members monitoring the energy transition. Commonwealth and the majority of State governments are offering grants to support Luigi Bonadio is a Melbourne-based chemical hydrogen project development including engineer with over 25 years of local and investments of $300 million from the Clean Energy international project management, engineering and Finance Corporation’s Advancing Hydrogen Fund consulting experience. He designs and implements and $70 million from ARENA to support the clean energy and water management solutions development and demonstration of electrolyser for a broad range of government and corporate technologies. clients operating across commercial and industrial, National Energy Resources Australia (NERA) is manufacturing and transport sectors. Luigi sits running a series of hydrogen industry stakeholder on AIE Melbourne’s committee and is Engineers workshops across the country to consider the Australia’s representative on the Standards benefits and efficacy of investments in the Australia ME-093 Hydrogen Technologies formation of hydrogen clusters. Committee and Working Groups 1, 2, 3 and 5. Q1 2020 | ENERGYNEWS | 19
Feature An opportunity for the mining sector to lead in decarbonisation By Catherine Bell, BDO Global Natural Resources Industry Program Market dynamics are shifting fast and there is conference in Cape Town with Justin Boyce Cam, a growing expectation across all industries and M&A Partner of BDO Australia stating: “It’s a very businesses to reduce emissions. difficult equity market for juniors now. There is The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority a dearth of capital for development in public (APRA) and the Australian Securities and markets and fund managers are moving away from Investments Commission (ASIC) have begun mining for reputational reasons”. to weigh in heavily on businesses to become Miners are having to fight hard to prove the value more transparent with shareholders and other of projects, and to ensure that they fulfil the stakeholders on the financial and other impacts on growing Environmental, Social and Governance business of growing climatic events. (ESG) parameters that fund managers are The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has also imposing. This is evidenced by the world’s largest begun to voice a concern over the risks posed by asset manager BlackRock announcing earlier this climate change with Deputy Governor Guy Debelle year that sustainability will be its new standard. quoted as saying “financial stability is better Sherif Andrawes, BDO’s Head of Global Natural served by an orderly transition to the low carbon Resources says that “mining companies must start economy rather than an abrupt disorderly one”. positioning themselves as part of the solution to The global evolution away from fossil fuels is the energy transition, not part of the problem. having a profound impact on traditional business, The energy transition to decarbonise is largely particularly mining. It is requiring a re-think dependent on the mining sector and it will be of business models and the adoption of new the rare earth/battery minerals, and even the technologies, which is never easy, especially for discovery of mineral X, which will be required in those companies that do not have the financial the manufacture of clean energy technologies”. capacity of the major miners. Mining companies have a huge opportunity to But the opportunity cost is becoming too great lead and have historically been very innovative. for any company to ignore. Public opinion around Apart from supplying the minerals required for use the energy transition is also turning investors away in renewable technologies, one area that mining from mining projects and into renewables. It was companies are investing in is the deployment of a recurring theme at the recent Mining Indaba renewable energy microgrids. 20 | ENERGYNEWS | Q1 2020
Feature Rio Tinto has just announced plans to build a solar farm to power its $2.6 billion Koodaideri iron ore mine, something that is envisaged to help power its entire Pilbara network. Mining and exploration group IGO’s managing director Peter Bradford said: “At IGO we believe in the green energy future and are committed to renewable energy sources as we strive to reduce our carbon footprint. The development of this innovative hybrid energy solution (operated by Zenith Energy) will also improve our cost structure with targeted renewable power insertion of up to 50% of demand via the solar PV facility.” IGO has also developed a ‘Proactively Green’ mining concept which enhances its sustainability framework to encompass better resource utilisation, better resource access, use of technology and sensors in exploration and improved land access practices guided by the ‘shared value’ concept. Although capital costs to electrify existing Goldfields CEO Nick Holland has been quoted as underground mines are quite cost prohibitive at saying: “Renewables make for great business – present, the improvements in technology and lower cost and supply security. Independence from reduced costs in the near future means it is very the grid is critical – microgrids are the future!”. likely that it will be commonplace to see new mines being fully electric in Australia. Falling renewable costs, cost and productivity gains, fit for purpose solutions, health and safety, Given the capital intensity of mining, remote market differentiation and increased pressures to operating environments and new technology reduce – and report on – emissions are the drivers solutions coming to market, this is a perfect time that will see more remote mining locations follow for mining companies to re-think their business suit. models and re-position themselves for a low- The tipping point of renewables costs has been carbon future. met in many locations around the world, meaning Mining companies should see the move to that it is now cheaper to deploy renewables than it decarbonise as an opportunity to promote other is to use diesel. aspects of the business – be it the health and Increasingly the solutions coming to market are safety of employees, attracting talent, innovative now more aligned to the needs of mining projects partnerships, becoming environmental stewards of and timelines via purchase power agreements, re- the land they operate and/or opportunities to build deployable solar solutions and mixed technology capacity within remote communities. solutions that ensure reliability. The growing emphasis on miners to demonstrate Opportunities for underground mines to electrify their social license to operate will only increase in are being driven less by emission reduction but today’s global ‘go green’ movement. more by health and safety concerns. The values of consumers, investors and employees The increased awareness around chronic health are shifting, and so too must business. It will be issues associated with the presence of nano diesel the pursuit of satisfying all these while at the particulate (nDPM) matter in underground mines is same time turning a profit that will see mining requiring a solution. That could be electrification, companies re-emerge as business partners for a filtration and/or improved ventilation. green future. “The energy transition to decarbonise is largely dependent on the mining sector... Mining companies must start positioning themselves as part of the solution” Q1 2020 | ENERGYNEWS | 21
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