EMERGING BRANDS 2020 Social Data Analytics - Support the restaurant industry while discovering new favorites! - Personica
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EMERGING BRANDS 2020 Social Data Analytics Support the restaurant industry while discovering new favorites! Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 6
Support a Small Brand, Gain a New Favorite – Now More Than Ever As many industries reel from the biggest business challenge HATTIE B’S HOT CHICKEN - Pickup + Delivery in modern times, consumers have the power to influence DISH SOCIETY - Curbside Pickup + Virtual Farmers Market the success of their favorite and local restaurants. Although BARTACO - Curbside Pickup + Delivery MENDOCINO FARMS - Contactless Pickup + Delivery in-store dining has been curtailed, off-premise dining TUPELO HONEY - Curbside Pickup + Delivery enables guests to procure delicious and nutritious meals LUKE’S LOBSTER - Curbside Pickup + Delivery (Portland) from local brands, even during the shelter in place scenarios BABALU TACOS AND TAPAS - Temporarily Closed that are playing out all over the country. Restaurant patrons WAGAMAMA - Temporarily Closed still have a choice and their ratings and reviews inform both TOCAYA ORGANICA MEXICAN - Pickup + Delivery fellow diners and the brands themselves. THE LITTLE BEET - Temporarily Closed TRUE FOOD KITCHEN - Temporarily Closed Each year Fishbowl builds a list of exciting brands that are MILK BAR - Delivery available poised for success in the year ahead. When the list was SUB ZERO NITROGEN ICE CREAM - Online order initially compiled via survey nomination and analysis in LEMONADE - Curbside Pickup + Delivery January 2020, Covid-19 was not factored into the equation. ABUELO’S - Pickup + Delivery Times have changed quickly – the restaurant industry taking BIBIBOP ASIAN GRILL - Temporarily Closed some of the biggest financial hits. DIG INN - Pickup + Delivery GRABBAGREEN - Pickup + Delivery Many Americans are supporting the industry by treating LUCILLE’S SMOKEHOUSE BBQ - Pickup + Delivery themselves to a regular routine of takeout (and tipping PLAN B BURGER BAR - Pickup + Delivery delivery people well!). By placing takeout/delivery orders or PUNCH BOWL SOCIAL - Temporarily Closed buying gift cards that can be used in the future, customers TROPICAL GRILLE - Pickup + Delivery can help many brands stay in business and be ready to TACODELI - Online Order for Pickup thrive when some form of normalcy returns. Although KEKE’S BREAKFAST CAFE - Online Order for Pickup ordering from any restaurant helps the overall industry, the THE SIMPLE GREEK - Online Order for Pickup TATTE BAKERY - Online Order for Pickup stellar list of this year’s Emerging Brands should not be ROTI - Contactless Pickup + Delivery missed. Many order takeout and delivery, some are offering KURA REVOLVING SUSHI BAR - Temporarily Closed specials and meal kits. Unfortunately, some are temporarily BLACK ROCK BAR AND GRILL - Pickup + Delivery closed – but are eagerly awaiting the rebound. Not only will DOS TOROS TAQUERIA - Pickup + Delivery takeout meals and gift card purchases help these smaller brands remain in operation, customers can add variety to their routines and discover new favorites. It’s time for a win. For the full original report, please read on! Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 2
OVERVIEW Emerging Brands in the restaurant industry are chains with 5-50* US units that exhibit a strong promise of potential growth in the near future and embrace progressive developments that are innovative and unique. They generate excitement – consumers want to ‘discover’ them and they feel ownership as the brands grow. The 2020 list was developed using survey analytics to garner nominations from industry experts, food enthusiasts, industry execs, advisors and thought leaders. We also studied blogs, industry publications and media mentions. We then leveraged our proprietary social data software to analyze more structured reviews, check-ins and ratings. We used this rich data source to see how brands are positioned against one another and evaluate growth in consumer enthusiasm over the past two years, as indicated by ratings and frequency trends. Their performance in this arena, especially in terms of ratings and review count growth, determined each brands’ inclusion as one of the 30 Emerging Brands of 2020. *Each year the list features a slightly unique twist on the study – from testing consolidated satisfaction algorithms to focusing on specific survey audiences. For the 2020 list, we went ‘back to basics’, dropping the threshold from a max of 75 units back to 50 as we did in our initial years of the report. These smaller brands pack power! INTERACTIVE REPORT In addition to the results published in this summary report, please visit our interactive dashboard for additional insights. https://tinyurl.com/EmergingBrands2020 Username: FishbowlEmergingBrands2020 Password: FishbowlResearchAnalytics Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 3
WHERE ARE THEY NOW? The Emerging Brands Report has a strong track record of choosing brands that thrive. Cava Grill was #3 on the 2019 list but has grown past the ‘emerging’ size – now at 96 locations, up 20% in new stores from 2019 with potential for an even bigger national presence after the Zoe’s Kitchen acquisition in November. True Food Kitchen grew from 23 locations when it made the Top Ten list in 2019, to 41 locations across 17 states with 8+ openings in 2020 - up 78%. 2019’s #10, Punch Bowl Social now has 19 locations, up 19% from the 16 reported in 2019, with 7+ in the works. Cracker Barrel invested up to $140M in Punch Bowl Social in July of 2019. Number 9 in 2019, Bibibop Asian Grill currently has 38 locations with 6+ planned for 2020 – a growth of 27%. Since they landed as number 4 on Fishbowl’s Emerging Brands list in 2019, Dig Inn has gone from 26 locations to 33, mostly across New York and Boston – 27% for the year. EMERGING BRANDS BADGE Emerging Brands are unique restaurant concepts that not only have caught our attention, but spark interest across various demographics and markets. Fishbowl’s Emerging Brands Badge helps highlight the distinctive entities that are helping transform the restaurant industry. This honor is bestowed only upon the small number of concepts included in the annual study. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 4
THE LIST 1 Hattie B’s Hot Chicken 11 | True Foods Kitchen 2 12 | Milk Bar Dish Society 13 | Sub Zero Nitrogen Ice Cream 3 Bartaco 14 | Lemonade 4 Mendocino Farms 15 | Abuelo’s 5 16 | Bibibop Asian Grill Tupelo Honey 17 | Dig Inn 6 Luke’s Lobster 18 | Grabbagreen 7 The Little Beet 19 | Lucille’s Smokehouse BBQ 8 20 | Plan B Burger Bar Wagamama 21 | Punch Bowl Social 9 Tocaya Organica 22 | Tropical Grille 10 Babalu Tacos & Tapas 23 | Tacodeli 24 | Keke’s Breakfast Cafe 25 | The Simple Greek 26 | Tatte Bakery 27 | Roti 28 | Kura Revolving Sushi Bar 29 | Black Rock Bar & Grill 30 | Dos Toros Taqueria Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 4
2020 SEGMENT REPRESENTATION Fourteen industry segments are featured on the 2020 list – the most diverse set of emerging brands to-date. Eight different segments comprise the Top Ten – Asian, Café, Chicken, Mexican, Sandwich, Seafood and Varied Menu. Fast Casual continues to offer the combination of convenience, quality and excitement that patrons crave, while the ease of Casual Dining hasn’t lost its appeal. The Emerging Brands of 2020 appear across 4 service types: Fast Casual (16), Casual Dining (11), Polished Casual (2) and Midscale (1). Like the 2019 Emerging Brands Report, Fast Casual is the leading segment among consumers with 16 brands in the list of 30 and 5 out of the Top Ten. Casual Dining brand presence on our list has grown since 2019 from 8 to 11. Three Casual Dining brands are in the Top Ten. Polished Casual dropped from 4 to 2 in 2020, although both Polished Casual brands (Babalu and Wagamama) and are in the Top 10. Midscale (Keke’s Breakfast Cafe) is new to the list since 2019. Industry Segmentation – Fishbowl Emerging Brands 2020 Asian WAGAMAMA Café THE LITTLE BEET Chicken HATTIE B’S HOT CHICKEN Latin BABALU TACOS & TAPAS Mexican BARTACO TOCAYA ORGANICA Sandwich MENDOCINO FARMS Seafood LUKE’S LOBSTER Varied Menu DISH SOCIETY TUPELO HONEY Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 76
EMERGING BRANDS 2020 BY RATING Every guest experience matters. Since many ratings are registered by diners while they are still at the table, every moment counts as well. The quality and quantity of reviews paints a vivid picture of brand health. Two primary metrics used by Fishbowl to measure Brand Value are Average Rating and the number of Reviews per Location. The numerical Rating score assigned by each reviewer is a basic satisfaction metric. The count of Reviews per Location is an indicator of frequency. Hattie B’s Hot Chicken is the highest rated Emerging Brand, with an average rating of 3.4. Other top rated brands are Dish Society, Mendocino Farms and Bartaco. Hattie B’s Hot Chicken also has the highest number of ratings per location at 782.3. Other brands with high numbers of Reviews per Location include Tupelo Honey, Dish Society and True Food Kitchen. Average Rating – Fishbowl Emerging Brands 2020 Average Count of Reviews – Fishbowl Emerging Brands 2020 See our interactive dashboard report to view this metric at a store level. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 5 6
RATINGS OVER TIME TOP TEN EMERGING BRANDS 2020 Another primary indicator of future success and a cornerstone of the Emerging Brands analysis is ratings trends over time. Are ratings remaining strong or dropping in value? Are Reviews per Location growing as consumer enthusiasm builds? Do ratings remain strong despite varying conditions over the course of a year? Note the ratings and review trends illustrated below. Wagamama shows a strong and steady rise in both quality and quantity of reviews. Bartaco and Dish Society show a slow rising trend (an increase of about .2 over the 2 year period) while the very strong ratings speak to the brands’ consistency. Babalu dipped slightly due to some lower than average reviews mid-year, but the overall trend has risen through the rest of the year showing the brand’s resilience. Ratings Over Time – Fishbowl Emerging Brands 2020 See our interactive dashboard report to view this metric for the entire set of Emerging Brands. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 8
GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION - TOP 10 STATES The Emerging Brands are geographically diverse – 515 stores appear in 35 states. Texas, What do reviewers of the Top Ten brands say New York and Florida are home to the highest number of Emerging Brands. Regionally, the most in in each state? Southwest, Southeast and Northeast are home to the highest numbers of locations from the Reviewers in FL rave Top Ten Emerging Brands. about the FOOD. SERVICE stands out in MA and NY. For the full set of 30 Emerging Brands of 2020: Reviewers love the WA and TN have the highest ratings (4.3) and WI has the lowest ratings (2.9). AMBIANCE in FL, MD & TX. Other states with high average ratings are AL, AZ, NC, MS, FL, SC, GA and MD. MD-ers complain about States with the highest numbers of Emerging Brands locations are TX, NY and FL. PRICE while reviewers in TN and FL find the PRICE is worth it. Ratings By State (Full Set) – Fishbowl Emerging Brands 2020 See our interactive dashboard report to filter the ratings map by segment, brand and time period. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 9
WHAT ARE REVIEWERS SAYING ABOUT FISHBOWL’S TOP TEN EMERGING BRANDS OF 2020? Sentiment Analysis Thrilled by the food and charmed by the atmosphere? Waited too long for unfriendly service? Sentiment Analysis was performed Sentiment Analysis – text mining and study of reviews – allows us to understand the why behind on the the ratings. Consumers are in a constant state of evaluating value during a restaurant visit. Five Top 10 Emerging Brands major components contribute to the value equation – food, beverage, ambiance, service and Bartaco price. When the value equation is unbalanced by any component the experience suffers and the Babalu Tapas & Tacos ratings show it. Dish Society Hattie B’s Hot Chicken Luke's Lobster Food mentions top the list of positive mentions for the top 10 Emerging Brands – quality and Mendocino Farms freshness are expected, but it is flavor and uniqueness that win over the discerning reviewer. The Little Beet Good service is a must – one negative interaction can flip a guest experience from good to bad – Tocaya Organica Tupelo Honey and a rating from glowing to scathing. These brands stand out for good service. Ambiance is Wagamama another critical feature that makes these brands special – and the experience unforgettable. Review Sentiment – Fishbowl Emerging Brands 2020 Great Food remains the top quality of emerging brands, followed by Service and Ambiance. See our interactive dashboard report to filter results by segment, brand and time period. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 10
WHAT ARE REVIEWERS SAYING ABOUT FISHBOWL’S TOP TEN EMERGING BRANDS OF 2020? Unigrams Single words found in review text. Unigrams Bigrams Some of the most commonly found unigrams for the Top Ten Emerging Brands include 2-word phrases found in review text that good/great, chicken, service time, order and delicious. We also see menu items and provide an additional layer of context. ingredients – chicken, pork, tacos, lobster, salad, sandwich and bowl top the list of unigrams. Descriptive words like amazing, tasty, excellent, awesome and friendly demonstrate the experience reviewers have had visiting this set of brands. Single Word Clouds – Fishbowl Emerging Brands 2020 Bigrams Top bigrams illustrating menu items include fried/hot chicken, lobster roll, chicken sandwich, clam chowder, mac cheese, carne asada and pork belly. Reviewers also mention good/great service, and unique offerings such as outdoor seating and gluten free options that enhance their experience and increase their loyalty. These brands are highly recommended in reviews, whether it is a known favorite or reviewers have come for the first time. Bigram Word Clouds – Fishbowl Emerging Brands 2020 Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 11
WHAT ARE REVIEWERS SAYING ABOUT FISHBOWL’S TOP TEN EMERGING BRANDS OF 2020? Text Analysis – Bigrams by Brand Digging deeper into review text data, we can see where the mentions are coming from and where they are most prevalent (see word counts in chart below). For instance – fried chicken mentions come from reviews of Hattie B's Hot Chicken, Tupleo Honey and Mendocino Farms. Luke’s lobster roll is mentioned so often it is the top mentioned bigram of the study. Mac n Cheese mentions are highest at Hattie B's, followed by Tupelo Honey and Luke’s Lobster. Across the entire brand set pork belly rules the 2020 list as one of the top mentioned and utilized ingredients of the year. Since it leads the pack in number of reviews per location, it is no surprise that Hattie B’s dominates the overall bigram mentions – from fried chicken, their branded hot chicken and brand name, to chicken sandwich, reviewers highly recommend this brand. See our interactive dashboard report to filter results by segment, brand and time period as well as hover over bars for brand-specific detail. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 12
TOP 10 LIST 1 Fast Casual New to the Top 10 2019 #11 Founded – Nashville, TN Founders – Nick Bishop, Sr and Nick Bishop, Jr Founded 2012 7 Locations Specializes in hot fried chicken served in a variety of spices and heat levels, with emphasis on quality and flavor. Family owned and operated. Leads the Emerging Brands set in both quality and number of ratings. Sentiment Summary: Hattie B’s fans rave about the hot chicken, fried chicken, mac n cheese, chicken sandwich, potato salad, banana pudding and pimento mac at this Nashville- born favorite. Fans deem it worth the wait, even when it is a long line out the door. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 13
DISH SOCIETY 2 Casual Dining New to the Top 10 2019 #28 Founder – Aaron Lyons 16 Locations Counter service for breakfast, lunch and brunch. Full service dinner and social hour. Dish Society features Farm to Table cuisine in an ‘All Day Diner’ style. Healthful food takes on traditional favorites., using local farms and suppliers including Atkinson Farms, Black Hill Ranch, Ives Creek Organics, and Slow Dough Bread Company, Sentiment Analysis: Fans of Dish Society love the shrimp and gouda grits, chicken biscuits, sweet potato, chicken sandwich, French toast, brisket eggs and belly hash. They discuss the great service and friendly staff – and highly recommend this great experience. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 14
3 Casual REPEAT WINNER 2019 #2 Founder – Andy Pforzheimer and Sasa Mahr-Batuz, Barteca Restaurant Group 21 restaurants across 12 states. Bartaco is inspired by the beach culture of Brazil, Uruguay and Southern California, featuring upscale street food with a coastal vibe in a relaxed environment. In 2018, Bartaco was acquired by Del Frisco’s Restaurant Group as part of a $325M deal that included both Bartaco and sister company Barcelona Wine Bar (Barteca Restaurant Group). Sentiment Summary: Bartaco reviewers discuss the great customer service and delicious food – from ingredients like pork belly, carne asada, fish, chicken chorizo, rock shrimp and duck featured in tacos and quesadillas to corn, cucumber salad and rice bowls. Fans highly recommend Bartaco and will definitely return, especially for happy hour. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 15
4 Fast Casual REPEAT WINNER 2019 #5 Founded – Bunker Hill in Downtown LosAngeles, 2003 Founders – Mario Del Pero and Ellen Chen. Kevin Miles, formerly of Zoe’s Kitchen, recently named CEO. 30 Locations with 8+ new stores in 2020 Mendocino Farms create a neighborhood gathering place that builds community while serving unique and remarkable sandwiches made from seasonal ingredients. Received investment from Whole Foods Market in 2015, and TPG Growth in 2017. Sentiment Summary: At Mendocino Farms, fans highly recommend the sandwiches and salads – chicken, pork belly, banh mi, chicken salad,steak sandwich, quinoa salad and taco salad are some of the most often mentioned. Another bright spot is the super friendly service – staff that keeps reviewers coming back to this great place that they love. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 16
5 TUPELO HONEY REPEAT WINNER 2019 #26 Casual Founded – Downtown Asheville, NC in 2000 Owner – Stephen Frabitore 18 Locations Creative Southern Food That’s Good for The Soul. Fresh, Southern, scratch-made- reinventing Southern classics. Supports independent and regional business – farms, food vendors, brewers, distillers. Two nationally published cookbooks. Chef Eric Gabrynowicz is a four-time James Beard Award semifinalist, Top Newcomer from Zagat and was voted Food and Wine Magazine's “Peoples Best New Chef - New York.” Sentiment Summary: Tupelo Honey is renown for their fried chicken, fried green tomatoes, Brussel sprouts, shrimp grits, French toast in a great atmosphere. Sunday brunch is a favorite. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 17
6 Fast Casual Founded 2009 in NYC’s East Village, based on their Maine roots REPEAT NEW! WINNER First Time Nomination Founder: Luke Holden 26 Locations Luke’s Lobster features traceable, sustainable seafood from ocean to plate. Luke’s Lobster works directly with fisherman to hand pick the best seafood and shipping directly to their own ‘shacks’, skipping the middleman. Fresh seafood is paired with ‘Maine-style’ sides. Supports coastal communities through their partnership with The Ocean Foundation (https://oceanfdn.org/). Sentiment Summary: Reviewers rave about the fresh lobster rolls, as well as the shrimp and crab. They love the clam chowder, lobster mac and grilled cheese from this super friendly New England favorite that they highly recommend. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 18
7 Fast Casual Founded – 2010 REPEAT WINNER 2019 #8 Founder – Andy Duddleston 11 Locations with at least 4 more planned for 2020 The Little Beet’s goal is to “serve real food deliciously” using seasonal and local ingredients sourced locally by trusted partners. All menu items are gluten-free, and also what Little Beet describes as “guiltin’ free”. The Little Beet has partnered with Atlantic Sea Farms to bring sustainable Kelp to the table. Sentiment Summary: The Little Beet’s gluten free fare features a wide variety of healthy food and vegan options, including brussels sprouts, sweet potatoes, turmeric tahini, pickled onions, beet falafel, cauliflower steak, butternut squash soup and kale salad. Fans love the staff and this fast casual place that they highly recommend. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 19
8 Founded 1992 Founded in London, expanding into US REPEAT WINNER 2019 #18 6 Locations in Boston and New York Recently entered into a US joint venture partnership with Conversion Venture Capital (CVc2) Wagamama’s philosophy is built on ‘kaizen’, meaning ‘good change.’ Inspired by fast-paced, Japanese ramen bars and a celebration of Asian food. Patrons choose rice and noodle dishes, fresh salads and shareable sides in addition to desserts, fresh juices, hot drinks, wine, sake craft Asian beers. Sentiment Summary: Reviewers definitely highly recommend the many varieties of ramen - chicken, shrimp, pork, rib, pork belly and beef. Pad Thai, cauliflower, katsu curry and steak bulgogi are also top mentioned menu items. Reviewers frequently leave a write up after their first time visit – and thanks to the cuisine and great service, reviews mentioning next time promise repeat visits. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 20
9 Founded 2016 REPEAT NEW! WINNER First Time Nomination 17 Locations Founded in Venice, CA by Tosh Berman and Amrou Manaseer Modern Mexican Tocayo Organica offers pure, natural ingredients, 100% free of hormones, steroids and antibiotics. Menu includes salads, tacos, burritos, bowls and quesadillas rooted in traditional Mexican recipes, accommodating vegan, vegetarian and gluten-free dietary choices. Sentiment Summary: The food is beloved and many items are mentioned frequently – plantain chips, chips salsa, carne asada, cauliflower rice, fajitas, black beans, tortilla soup. Styles – such as the keto bowl – are welcomed. Reviewers also respond to specials like Taco Tuesday and free chips. The great service and friendly staff are also reasons why patrons love Tocaya Organica. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 21
10 Founded 2011 REPEAT NEW! WINNER First Time Nomination 5 Locations Acquired by Memphis-based Spell Restaurant Group in October 2019. Babalu offers tapas in a friendly, comfortable environment. Fresh Latin-inspired cuisine and handcrafted cocktails offer an environment based on food, fun, and hospitality. Recent financial restructuring has not impacted ratings – Babulu shows a significantly high trend of rising reviews and frequency. Sentiment Summary: Fans love the tacos - pork belly, fish, shrimp and chicken. Other entrees like the burger, crab croquette, steak and eggs, crab cakes and lamb sliders get raves, along with sides like street corn and Brussel sprouts. The tableside guacamole and great atmosphere make Babalu a favorite. Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 22
FISHBOWL BRAND VALUE ANALYTICS Today, Every Opinion Counts A customer can be your best ambassador or your worst critic. Details of their most recent experience at your restaurant are shared with everyone on social media. Guest ratings and reviews are a tremendous source of unfiltered feedback for you. What your guests are saying can help you uncover issues that may be affecting your business, both positively and negatively. It’s important you know what’s going on. Fishbowl’s Analytics experts can help you find out. Serving Up Insights Fishbowl’s experts analyze social media to give restaurants millions of customer reviews about your brand and your competitors. Fishbowl’s proprietary reports provide strategic and actionable information faster and cheaper than traditional market research. The findings can help you better understand your customers’ perception of your brand, your products, your value, and that of your competitors. Fishbowl’s Research Analysts help you understand not only your ratings, but the why behind them. For two decades, Fishbowl has partnered with thousands of restaurants to help them create data-directed marketing campaigns and menu management solutions that keep their guests connected, informed, and coming back. www.fishbowl.com INTERACTIVE REPORT In addition to the results published in this summary report, please visit our interactive dashboard for additional insights. https://tinyurl.com/EmergingBrands2020 Username: FishbowlEmergingBrands2020 Password: FishbowlResearchAnalytics Emerging Brands 2020: Brand Value via Social Data Analytics 23
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