Dublin Office Market Overview - Research, Q4 2021 Special Focus: Latest Trends in the Grey Market - Knight Frank

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Occupier Trends     Investment Trends   Market Outlook

Dublin Office

                                                         knightfrank.com/research
Market Overview
Research, Q4 2021

Special Focus: Latest Trends in the Grey Market
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          OVERVIEW Q4 2021
                                                                                  15%+
                                                                               Forecast GDP growth in 2021

                                                                   As high value adding sectors continue to create
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Once again Ireland is excelling in terms of recovery, productivity growth, job creation and
                                                                   jobs and global trading partners also experience
                                                                                                                                                                                                         consequently tax in-take which creates a very positive backdrop for continued success in 2022.
                                                                    a strong recovery. Inflationary pressures now a
                                                                              key challenge across all sectors.

                                                                                           PAGE 3

                                                                                                                                                                                              ECONOMY                                                                uu                             adjusted for jobs lost or on hold due
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sectors that traditionally                            to Covid-19.
                                                                                                                                                                                              The Irish economy continues to recover at
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              require office space have
                                                                                                                                                                                              a pace that exceeds that of other EU and                                                              A very positive impact of growth

€746m                                                                                                                                                999,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              seen a strong increase in
                                                                                                                                                                                              global economies. Well established drivers                                                            and employment generation across
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               employment. There are
                                                                                                                                                                                              such as the strength of the multi-national                                                            key economic sectors has been the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             almost 52,000 more people
    Invested in Dublin office
 assets in Q4, taking total office
                                                                                                                                                      sq ft                                   sector, the level of employment creation in
                                                                                                                                                                                              high value adding sectors along with the
                                                                                                                                                                                              pace of the rebound in consumer spending,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              employed in Professional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Services and ICT than before
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   the pandemic.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    highest tax in-take on record in 2021.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Department of Finance data for 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    shows that the total tax take was up
 investment to €1.5bn in 2021.
                                                                                                                                                       Office market take-up, bringing        have put Ireland firmly on track to deliver
    Blackstone’s purchase of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         uu
                                                                                                                                                      the total for the year to 1.6m sq ft,   strong double-digit growth of an estimated
  The Serpentine Buildings in
                                                                                                                                                        slightly ahead of our forecast        15.6% for 2021.                                                                                                  ECONOMIC GROWTH
Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, which is let

                                                               5 KEY
                                                                                                                                                      of 1.5m sq ft. KPMG’s decision to                                                     employed across the Finance, Insurance                                2021 & 2022
to Meta (Facebook), for €395m                                                                                                                                                                 Modified domestic demand – which
                                                                                                                                                       take 289,000 sq ft at Harcourt                                                       & Real Estate sector and almost                                                  2021E             2022F
   was the largest deal of the                                                                                                                                                                reflects growth in just the domestic
                                                                                                                                                     Square was the largest deal of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            52,000 additional employees across

                                                            TA K E A W AY S
quarter and the year and further                                                                                                                                                              economy – is expected to have
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        IRELAND               15.6%               7.6%
                                                                                                                                                       year and reflects the underlying
 reflects the depth of interest in                                                                                                                                                                                                          the Professional Services and ICT
                                                                                                                                                          confidence in the market.           increased by over 5% in 2021, with                                                                       EUROZONE                   5.0%          4.3%
   prime Dublin office assets.                                                                                                                                                                                                              sectors compared to the end of 2019.
                                                                                                                                                                                              over 6% forecast for 2022 reflecting
                                                                                                                                                                    PAGE 4                                                                  The Industry sector, which includes                             UK                    6.9%          4.7%
             PAGE 10                                                                                                                                                                          an effective return to pre-pandemic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Pharmaceuticals, while less office focused                      US                    5.6%          3.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                              spending levels by consumers.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            in terms of property requirements, now
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          CHINA                   8.0%            5.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                              The longer than expected need to work         also employs 20,000 more people than
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         GLOBAL                   5.5%            4.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                              from home where possible and the              before the pandemic.
                                                                                                                                                                                              emergence of hybrid working models has                                                                E = estimate, F = forecast.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            It is no surprise that unemployment has
                                                                                                                                                                                              not impacted employment growth across                                             CPI                 Source: Knight Frank Research, OECD, IMF, World Bank,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            fallen considerably to 5.1%, and 7.5% if                Department of Finance, Central Bank of Ireland/ESRI.
                                                                                                                                                                                              most sectors. With the exception of the
                                                                                                                                                                                              Accommodation & Food as well as the
                                                                                                                                                                                              Administrative sectors of the economy,

                         €57.50 psf                                                                               812,000 sq ft                                                               all other sectors now employ more people             Irish consumer price inflation (CPI) and harmonised index of consumer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    prices (HICP), monthly 2018 - 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                              than before the pandemic.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             HICP          CPI
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             6%
                        prime rents held firm at this level in 2021 and are                                       was reserved at the beginning of 2022, reflecting the pace of                                  uu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5%
                        expected to increase to €62.50 psf by mid year.                                                  recovery in demand towards the end of 2021.
                                                                                                                                                                                                Double digit growth for                      4%
                                             PAGE 5                                                                                         page 4                                             2021 as Ireland’s recovery                    3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                  continues at pace.                         2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 uu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -1%
                                                                                                                                                                                              In particular, the sectors that require        -2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2018                    2019                    2020                         2021
                                                                                                                                                                                              office space have experienced a very
                                                                                                                                                                                              considerable increase in employment.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: CSO/Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                                                                                                              There are now almost 24,000 more
4                                                                                                                                                                                                            5

19.6% compared to 2020, with the               OCCUPIER TRENDS                                             the year as a whole to one hundred and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               uu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              A decline in the amount of space on
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                uu
income tax take up almost                                                                                  forty-one, one hundred and two (72%) of                                                                                                            the grey market, along with increased
                                               Despite the setback presented by the
€4 billion, reflecting the type of                                                                         which were signed in the second half of                                                           KPMG and TikTok                                  take-up and delays to the completions             We forecast that prime
                                               Omicron variant in Q4, which stalled a
roles created across the economy.                                                                          the year.                                                                                    completed the two largest                             pipeline have all contributed to the              rents will reach €62.50
                                               return to the office for many, occupier
VAT receipts increased by 24.3%                                                                                                                                                                            occupier deals of the                              decline in the vacancy. The expectation             psf by mid-year and
                                               activity increased considerably.                            79% of activity in Q4 was in the City                                                                                                                                                                 €65.00 psf by the end
and the corporation tax in-take by                                                                                                                                                                        year. Both deals signed                             is that the vacancy rate will continue to
just under 30%.                                Total take-up for 2021 reached just over
                                                                                                           Centre followed by the South and West
                                                                                                                                                                                                           in Q4 and given their                              decline in 2022.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       of the year.
                                                                                                           Suburbs which accounted for 7% of take-
                                               1.63m sq ft, a little ahead of our forecast                                                                                                                 scale, reflect a vote of
Inflationary pressures are inevitable                                                                      up each. The TMT sector continues to                                                                                                                                                                                 uu
                                               of 1.5m sq ft made this time last year.                                                                                                                   confidence from two key                              Rents
and will be a key challenge for the                                                                        lead occupier demand with that sector                                                           sectors (Professional
domestic and global economies in               Take-up                                                     representing 42% of take-up in Q4.                                                            services and TMT) in the                             Prime rents remained firm throughout
2022. The risk of higher interest rates                                                                    Professional Services made up 31% of                                                         underlying fundamentals                               2021 at €57.50 psf. Delays to the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            OUTLOOK
                                               999,000 sq ft of space transacted in Q4 –
is on the horizon and for the first time                                                                   take-up followed by Finance and Other                                                        of the economy as well as                             construction pipeline, compounded by          The lifting of almost all Covid-19
                                               twice the amount that transacted in Q3
in over a decade will play a role in                                                                       which comprised 8% each.                                                                      the growth prospects for                             inflationary pressures in the construction    restrictions will allow for a much broader
                                               (436,000 sq ft).
investor decision making.                                                                                                                                                                                    their own sectors.                               as well as all other sectors, are expected    return to the office and a wider opening
                                                                                                           There was 812,000 sq ft of space
                                               The largest transaction in Q4 was                                                                                                                                                                              to see prime rents increase in 2022.          of the economy. This is expected to allow
Overall however, economic conditions                                                                       reserved at the beginning of 2022 and an                                                                            uu
                                               KPMG’s decision to pre-let 289,000 sq ft                                                                                                                                                                                                                     occupiers to act on demand requirements
in Ireland are in a very favourable                                                                        estimated 3.5m sq ft of active demand                                                                                                              Upward pressure on rents will be led by
                                               at Harcourt Square, which they are due                                                                                                                                                                                                                       which have evolved over the last two
position as we enter 2022. Job                                                                             in the market. 84,000 sq ft is reserved at                                                                                                         demand for new or redeveloped buildings
                                               to occupy in 2026. TikTok’s decision to                                                                                                               Vacancy                                                                                                years which they have not been able to
creation across office-based sectors                                                                       the Exo Building in Dublin 1, 73,000 sq                                                                                                            which meet sustainable credentials and
                                               take 216,000 sq ft of space at The Sorting                                                                                                                                                                                                                   progress with.
throughout the pandemic is expected                                                                        ft at Dockline and 62,000 sq ft at No.3                                                   The vacancy rate has fallen to 9.8% from                 which offer occupiers the best options
                                               Office was the second largest deal.                                                                         I N T E N D TO I N C R E A S E H O L D I N G S
to result in pent-up demand for office                                                                     Dublin Landings, both also in Dublin 1.                                                   10.5% at the end of Q3 2021. It peaked at                for hybrid working spaces and flagship        Our expectation is that activity in 2022 will
space as employees re-emerge from              Apart from these two large deals in Q4,                     In Dublin 2 there is 60,000 sq ft reserved                                                10.6% in the middle of 2021 following the                space in line with their brand and            gain considerable momentum from the
                                                                                                                                                                                        NO CHANGE
home over the coming months, even              there were fifty-four other deals signed,                   at 12 Dawson and another 80,000 sq ft at                                                  lowest level of demand on record in the                  growth strategies, a key part of which is     end of Q1 onwards with take-up forecast to
allowing for hybrid working models.            bringing the total deals completed for                      One Park Place.                                 I N T E N D TO D E C R E A S E         first
                                                                                                                                                                                            HOLDING S half of 2021.                                           attracting and retaining talent.              reach 2m sq ft for the year as a whole.

        9.8%
                                                                  TOP 5 OFFICE LEASING TRANSACTIONS Q4 2021                                                                                                                                 Dublin market vacancy rate

                                                                                                                                                                                                     12%
                                                                   PROPERTY                          TENANT                  SECTOR         SIZE (SQ FT)

                                                                                                                                                                                                     10%
                                                                                                                           PROFESSIONAL
                                                          HARCOURT SQUARE, DUBLIN 2                    KPMG                                      288,500
                                                                                                                             SERVICES
                  Vacancy rate

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               €62.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                     8%

                                                        THE SORTING OFFICE, DUBLIN 2                  TIKTOK                   TMT               216,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     6%

             Take-up by sector                             BUILDING 10, CHERRYWOOD              WE ARE THE PIONEER
                                                                                                                           CO-WORKING            30,558                                              4%
                      Q4 2021                              BUSINESS PARK, DUBLIN 18                   GROUP

                        TMT 42%                                                                                                                                                                      2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                prime rental forecast mid-2022
                                                           ONE PARK PLACE, DUBLIN 2                  LINKEDIN                  TMT               28,506
                           PROF SERVICES 31%

                                FINANCE 8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                     0%
                                                       2 STEMPLE EXCHANGE, DUBLIN 15                  VERITAS                  TMT               27,280                                                      Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4
                                 OTHER 8%                                                                                                                                                                   2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021

                                                  Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                                                                      Source: Knight Frank Research

                                                                                                Office take-up                                                                                                                              Prime rental growth (per sq ft)
                                                                                                 sq ft (millions)

                                                                                                                                                                                                     €80

                                                                                                                                                                                                      €70
                                                                                                                    3.9M
                                                                                                    3.6M                                                                                             €60
                                                                                                                              3.3M
                                                                                                                                                                                                     €50
                                                                                         2.8M
                                                                                  2.7M
                                                                 2.4M                                                                                                                                €40

                                                    2.0M                                                                                                                                             €30
                                                                                                                                                      1.6M
                                                                                                                                          1.5M                                                       €20
             MEDICAL 3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      €10
         CO-WORKING 4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      €0
                   STATE 4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2013       2014       2015     2016    2017    2018    2019    2020       2021    H1 2022F
                                                   2013          2014         2015       2016       2017            2018      2019        2020       2021
Source: Knight Frank Research                     Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                                                                      Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                              2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2022f
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2017
6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   7

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                                    TOP LETTINGS, INVESTMENTS & DEVELOPMENTS IN Q4 2021                                                ULA

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              One & Two Dockland Central

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              George's Quay House                                                                                                                                             Date: Q4 2021

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Date: Q4 2021

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Price: €152,288,000

                                                                                                                                                                       ET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Take-up: 22,959 sq ft

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       HILL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         CONNOLLY                                                                             NIY: 4.76%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                GA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Tenant: Intercontinental Exchange                                           STATION
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Vendor: Hibernia REIT

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 RD
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      TIO N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sector: TMT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Purchaser: Commerz Real AG

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     The Bloodstone Building

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Date: Q4 2021

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                CO

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Take-up: 13,275 sq ft

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                                                        ES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              TR                                                                                                                                                                                                                SH ER IF F ST          Tenant: GLG
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   LS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  No.3 Dublin Landings

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                                                             TE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               EL                 HENRY                                                                                                                                                                                                                  RE ET UP PE
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sector:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    PA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Other                                         Date: Q4 2021

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                                                                       IE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        STREET
                                                                            LD
                                            PHOENIX                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Take-up: 11,295 sq ft

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                                                                                 AV                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       THE

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                                             PARK                                     E                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                CONVENTION
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Tenant: Hannover Re

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    STREET

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         CENTRE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sector: Finance

                                                                                                                                                                                                        KHAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              SMITHFIELD

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                                                                       HEUSTON                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  S QUAY                                                                                                   The Sorting Office
                                                                       STATION                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             R GE                                            C IT Y                                                                                                                                                       76 Sir John Rogerson's Quay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  GE O                                                              QUA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Date: Q4 2021
                                                                                                                                                       VIC TO RIA QU AY                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Take-up: 216,000 sq ft                                                                         Date: Q4 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ARR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               AN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     QUA                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Tenant: TikTok                                                                                 Take-up: 17,067 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         USH               Y                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Tenant: Trinseo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ER’
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     SQ                                                                                                                          Y                                                                                                                                                       Sector: TMT
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        UAY                                                                                              D QU                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sector: Other
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                                       AP                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Marshalsea Court                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ENERGY                                                            8 Hanover Quay
                                  CH                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Date: Q4 2021                                                                                                                                                                                                                          THEATRE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               GE S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        TRINITY                                                                                                                                                                                          Date: Q4 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  TR                                                            Price: €23,600,000                                                                                      COLLEGE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   PEA                                                                                                                                   Price: €46,590,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       EE                                                                                                                                                                DUBLIN                                                              RSE
                                                                                                                                                                                                   THOM                                                     T                                                   NIY: 5.60%                                                                                                                                                                            STR                                                                                                                NIY: 3.32%
                                                                                                                                                                                                              AS S                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             E ET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Vendor: Sonbrook
SOUT H CIR CU LA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   TR   EET                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Vendor: BNP Paribas REIM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Purchaser: Corum

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2 Windmill Lane                                                                                                                      Purchaser: Deka Immobilien

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                PATR I CK S TR E
                                                                                                                        ET                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Date: Q4 2021
                                                                                                                   RE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         GRAFTON
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       The Reflector
                                                                                                              ST                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Take-up: 13,117 sq ft

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                                                                                                           ES

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                                                                                                    JA M                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Date: Q4 2021

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Tenant: Udemy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      DAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Take-up: 16,468 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                        E

                                                       A           D                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sector: TMT

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ON ST
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                 R R O AD

                                             INHA                                                                                                                                                       L                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Tenant: Wix
                            O L D KI L M A

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                                                                                                                                                                                              BON                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        AN                                            Sector: TMT                               10 Hanover Quay

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                                                                                                                                                                               M                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GOVERNMENT                                                                                                   CA                                                                            Date: Q4 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    MERRION                                                             NA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       BUILDINGS                                    SQUARE                                                                   L                                                                   Size: 69,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                   The 8 Building                                                               KEV                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   M                                          ST
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Developer: Kennedy Wilson
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                                                                                                                                                                                   Take-up: 7,989 sq ft                                                                                  ET                                                                                                                                                                                                                              RE
                                                                                                                                                                                   Tenant: Banach Technology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     UPP
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        GREEN                                                                                                                                 ET                                         84-93 Mount Street
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                                                                                                                                                                                   Sector: TMT                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   R
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Price: €35,000,000                                             UE
                                                                                                                                                                                  T                                                                                                                                                               CUFFE ST                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  BA TH AV EN
                                                                                                                                                                           R   EE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Fitzwilliam 27                                                             NIY: 4.73%
                                                                                                                                                                      ST                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Vendor: Henderson Park
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Size: 145,313 sq ft                                                        Purchaser: Patrizia

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                                                                                                             ULA                                                                                              Take-up: 13,286 sq ft                                                                                                                                           GARDENS
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                                                                                                                                                                                                              Tenant: Infineon Technologies
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                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sector: TMT                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          DIN

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Harcourt Square                                                                                           RE ET

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Date: Q4 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                6 Pembroke Row
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Take-up: 288,500 sq ft

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        FI
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Date: Q4 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ND
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Tenant: KPMG
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Size: 26,716 sq ft

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sector: Professional Services
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Developer: MKN Property Group

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   40 Mespil Road
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Take-up: 16,092 sq ft                                                                                                                            35 Shelbourne Road
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Tenant: Huawei                                                                                                                                   Date: Q4 2021
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                                                        KEY                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sector: TMT                                                                                                                                      Take-up: 25,198 sq ft
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                One Park Place                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Tenant: Just Eat

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                                                                                  LETTINGS                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Date: Q4 2021                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sector: TMT
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Take-up: 28,506 sq ft                                                                              40 Mespil Road

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 TIN
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                                                                                  INVESTMENTS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Tenant: LinkedIn                                                                                                                                                   ES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Date: Q4 2021
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                                                                                  DEVELOPMENTS                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sector: TMT                                                                                        Take-up: 11,377 sq ft                                                     ST

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Tenant: Crowe                                                               PP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The Serpentine Buildings

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     SE
                                                                                  DART RAIL LINE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              45 Mespil
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sector: Professional Services                                              Date: Q4 2021                                                                                 Date: Q4 2021
                                                                                  LUAS TRAM LINE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Take-up: 13,554 sq ft                                                                         Price: €395,000,000
                                                                                  LUAS TRAM LINE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Tenant: Cairn Homes                                                                           NIY: 4.04%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sector: Finance                                                                               Vendor: Serpentine Consortium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Purchaser: Blackstone
8                                                                                                                            9

                                                                                                                                                                                                  SPECIAL FOCUS
OFFICE DEVELOPMENT
The impact of delays to the office                                                                                                                              S P E C I A L F O C U S : L AT E S T T R E N D S
construction pipeline became very evident                                                                                                                                IN THE GREY MARKET
at the end of Q4, with a number of large
buildings which were due to complete
                                                                                                                                      Quite an amount of space was earmarked                 which has made them realise that they
delayed into Q1 2022.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             uu
                                                                                                                                      for the grey market prior to Covid-19,                 need to retain some space in order to
Three large pre-let buildings (One Wilton                                                                                             with fast growing technology companies                 accommodate this expansion, regardless
Park, Spencer Place and Boland’s Quay)                                                                                                tending to take excess space in order                  of whether they plan on adopting                      Looking ahead, the best
which total just under 800,000 sq ft are                                                                                              to facilitate medium term growth.                      hybrid working or not. For companies                 grey space is transacting
now due to complete in Q1. 169,000 sq                                                                                                 Furthermore, Covid-19 has also been a                  transitioning to hybrid working, some                   quickly. Older stock,
ft at The Exo Building is also now due to                                                                                             catalyst for financial services companies              overestimated the proportion of their                  with older fit-out may
complete in Q1.                                                                                                                       to review legacy footprints and expedite               workforce that would work remotely on                find it difficult to be sub-

                                                                        59%
                                                                                                                                      some of their consolidation efforts.                   a continuous basis and now realise that                let or assigned. There
Three buildings completed in the final                                                                                                However, the latest data shows that the                a greater share will return to the office              could be discounting
quarter of the year, the largest of which                                                                                             amount of grey space* in the Dublin                    than previously thought, resulting in                 on space of that nature
was Fitzwilliam 27 which was developed by                                                                                                                                                    them withdrawing some space from
                                                                                                                                      office market has reached a turning point,                                                                     throughout the year
the ESB. 69,000 sq ft of speculative space                            of City Centre space due in                                     declining for a second consecutive quarter             the market. For others, while hybrid                 particularly if corporate
completed at 10 Hanover Quay while 27,000                                   2022 is pre-let                                           to just under a 1.0 million sq ft in Q4 - an           working may result in less employees in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      occupiers look to
sq ft completed at 6 Pembroke Row (which                                                                                              overall decline of 11%. So, what are the               the office at any given time, companies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   mitigate cost exposure.

                                                                                                              82%
was already let to the OPW).                                                                                                          reasons behind this recent fall and can we             now want to retain the same quantity
                                                                pre-let, while the same figure for Dublin                             expect it to continue?                                 of space but use it differently by
There were no new office completions in                                                                                                                                                                                                                           uu
                                                                1 stands at 370,000 sq ft (spread across                                                                                     adding more space for collaboration,
the suburbs in Q4. Total space completed                                                                                              •	The successful vaccination rollout
                                                                four buildings). There is no space under         of space due to                                                             socialisation, and learning. Some
across the market in 2021 was just under                                                                                                and the phased easing of restrictions
                                                                construction and due to complete in             complete in 2022 is                                                          examples of companies withdrawing                  There is also some evidence of this
1m sq ft, 50% of what was expected to                                                                                                   in the second half of 2021 provided
                                                                the South Suburbs in 2022 which is not           in the City Centre                                                          space from the grey market include                 type of space being handed back to
complete at the beginning of 2021.                                                                                                      companies with an opportunity to plan
                                                                already pre-let.                                                                                                             Bank of Ireland, who having originally             the landlord particularly where a
                                                                                                                                        a gradual return to the office as well as
                                                                                                                                                                                             marketed the entire of 40 Mespil Road,             redevelopment or refurbishment play is
OUTLOOK                                                         The tighter supply pipeline will give
                                                                                                                                        to consider their future occupational
                                                                                                                                                                                             are now understood to be retaining part            possible. This, in conjunction with the
                                                                                                                                        strategies which translated into a
                                                                fewer options for large occupiers looking                                                                                    of the accommodation for their own use.            factors outlined above, is expected to
There is 2.7m sq ft in the pipeline for                                                                                                 marked improvement in occupier
                                                                for new flagship office space in 2022.                                                                                       Likewise, DocuSign withdrew 24,000 sq              accelerate the fall in the amount of grey
delivery in 2022, 2.2m of which is in the                                                                                               activity. In line with what we are
                                                                Large occupiers now need to plan ahead                                                                                       ft of space that they were marketing at 5          space available in Dublin throughout
City Centre.                                                                                                                            witnessing in the traditional leasing
                                                                to ensure that they can secure a building                                                                                    Hanover Quay, while Twitter took back              2022 as the market for grey space
                                                                                                                                        market, there has been a flight to
In terms of space under construction,                           that will meet the requirements of any                                                                                       16,000 sq ft at One Cumberland Place.              experiences further stabilisation.
                                                                                                                                        quality in the market for grey space
less than 500,000 sq ft is due for delivery                     expected productivity and employee
                                                                                                                                        with good quality, modern grey space
this year in Dublin 2 which is not already                      growth going forward.
                                                                                                                                        witnessing robust demand as evidenced
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Volume of grey space available in Dublin
                                                                                                                                        by Wix’s taking of 40,000 sq ft at The
                                                                                                                                        Reflector, while DLA Piper and 2K                    1,200,000

                                                                                                                                        Games took 30,000 sq ft and 26,000 sq
                                                                                                                                        ft at 40 Molesworth Street and One Park              1,000,000

                       L ARGEST BUILDINGS C OMPLETED IN 2021                                                                            Place respectively. A further 184,000 sq
                                                                                                                                        ft of grey space was reserved at the end             800,000
                                           BUILDING                                     SIZE, SQ FT                     uu              of Q4 suggesting that a healthy level of

                                                                                                                                                                                     Sq ft
                                                                                                                                        demand will continue into 2022.                      600,000
                               2 CHARLEMONT SQUARE, DUBLIN 2                               170,125
                                                                                                            Dublin’s office supply
                                                                                                                                      •	There is also some evidence of
                                     FITZWILLIAM 27, DUBLIN 2                              145,313             pipeline has been                                                             400,000
                                                                                                                                        companies withdrawing space from the
                                     FITZWILLIAM 28, DUBLIN 2                              135,000          significantly impacted
                                                                                                                                        market. The reasons for this vary from
                                                                                                            by Covid-19 lockdowns                                                            200,000
                                35 SHELBOURNE ROAD, DUBLIN 4                                  87,500                                    company to company. The remarkable
                                                                                                                                        recovery of the Irish economy
                                2 STEMPLE EXCHANGE, DUBLIN 15                                 82,570
                                                                                                                        uu                                                                   0
                                                                                                                                        throughout the Covid-19 pandemic has                               Q4           Q1     Q2         Q3      Q4       Q1        Q2       Q3         Q4
                                                                                                                                        given some companies the confidence                               2019         2020   2020       2020    2020     2021      2021     2021        2021
     Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                                                        to grow their workforces once again           Source: Knight Frank Research

                                                                                                                                      * Ready and available for occupation
10                                                                               11

INVESTMENT MARKET                               3.32%, which reflects the fact that the                      €70m was invested outside Dublin in
                                                building was under rented. Additionally,                     2021, the largest transaction being the
€746m worth of office investments               84-93 Mount Street in Dublin 2, let to the                   sale by O’Callaghan Properties of One
transacted in Dublin in Q4, bringing the        public sector, was purchased by Patrizia                     Navigation Square in Cork to Corum
total for the year to €1.5bn and ending the     for €35m. The vendor was Henderson                           for €60m.
year on a strong note. Spend in the final       Park who also sold Fitzwilliam Hall to
                                                                                                             Looking ahead to 2022, there are three
quarter represented 50% of total office         Sofidy for just over €30m. The largest
                                                                                                             large lot sizes currently available.
investment for the year.                        five deals in Q4 were in the City Centre
                                                                                                             Two of these are on the market; One
                                                locations of Dublin 1, 2 & 4.
The largest deal of Q4 and indeed the                                                                        Spencer Dock, which is the headquarter
year was Blackstone’s purchase of The
                                                                          uu                                 location of PWC in Ireland and Block R,
Serpentine Buildings in Ballsbridge,             Looking at 2021, €1.5bn was                                 Spencer Dock. The third is an off-market
Dublin 4, which is let to Meta (Facebook),        invested in office assets, a                               portfolio in Dublin 2.
for €395m. This deal, along with the              strong performance given
                                                                                                             Strong demand is expected to remain
purchase of One & Two Dockland Central              the limited travel and
                                                                                                             a key feature of the market in 2022 and
for €152m by Commerz Real AG, made up             viewing options available
                                                                                                             the pace at which large lot sized assets
73% of total investor spend on office assets         throughout the year.
                                                                                                             come to the market in order to satisfy
in the Dublin market in Q4.
                                                                          uu                                 this demand will be interesting to watch
Other deals of note in the quarter include                                                                   this year. New buildings with the best
the sale by BNP Paribas REIM of 8 Hanover       92% of the investment made in the                            sustainable credentials, in a City Centre
Quay which is occupied by AirBnB. The           office sector in Q4 was from non-Irish                       location, are expected to test prime
purchase price of €46.6m paid by Deka           investors, reflecting ongoing confidence                     yields at the 3.5% level.
Immobilien represents an initial yield of       in the Irish market.

            Profile of Investors                                TOP 5 OFFICE INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS Q4 2021
            by location Q4 2021
                                                                                                                                     PRICE
                                                               PROPERTY                         VENDOR            BUYER                           YIELDS
                                                                                                                                   € MILLION
                            US 53%

                                                     THE SERPENTINE BUILDINGS,              SERPENTINE
                                                                                                               BLACKSTONE          €395,000,000     4.04%
                                                             DUBLIN 4                       CONSORTIUM
                                   EUROPE 39%
                                                           ONE & TWO DOCKLAND                                   COMMERZ
                                                                                            HIBERNIA REIT                          €152,288,000     4.76%
                                                            CENTRAL, DUBLIN 1                                    REAL AG

                                                                                                                                        2015 | £31BN
                                                                                                               DEKA IMMO-
                                                      8 HANOVER QUAY, DUBLIN 2            BNP PARIBAS REIM                         €46,590,000      3.32%
                                                                                                                 BILIEN                  2019 | £51BN

                                                   84-93 MOUNT STREET, DUBLIN 2           HENDERSON PARK         PATRIZIA          €35,000,000      4.73%

                                                     FITZWILLIAM HALL, DUBLIN 2           HENDERSON PARK          SOFIDY           €30,350,000      4.20%

                                                Source: Knight Frank Research

                                                                           Dublin office investment volumes (€ billions)

                             IRELAND 8%                                                                                    3.1BN

   Source: Knight Frank Research

        89%
                                                                2.1BN
                                                                                1.9BN
                                                           2020 | £58BN
                                                                                                                                                  1.5BN
                                                                                        1.4BN
                                                            2025 | £71BN                                      1.3BN
                                                   1.1BN                                                                              1.2BN

                                                                                                   0.8BN

                                                  2013          2014            2015    2016       2017       2018         2019       2020        2021
           of spend in 2021 was on
          buildings in Dublin 1,2 & 4           Source: Knight Frank Research
Occupier Trends     Investment Trends   Market Outlook                                           Please get in touch with us
                  Dublin PRS                                                                                                         Dublin Office
                                                                                                                                                                                                           knightfrank.com/research
                                                                                                          knightfrank.ie/research

                  Occupier Study                                                                                                     Market Overview
                  Research 2021                                                                                                      Research, Q3 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Research                                                Offices
                                                                                                                                     Special Focus: Dublin 2 leads the way as the office market rebounds

                  IN ASSOCIATION WITH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Joan Henry, Chief Economist &                           Declan O’Reilly, Director
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Head of Research                                        declan.oreilly@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      joan.henry@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Paul Hanly, Director
   Dublin PRS Occupier                                                                                                              Dublin Office Market
   Study 2021                                                                                                                       Overview Q3 2021                                                                                  Robert O’Connor, Senior Research Analyst                paul.hanly@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      robert.oconnor@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jim O’Reilly, Director
               Occupier Trends            Investment Trends   Market Outlook                                                                                                                                                          Capital Markets                                         jim.oreilly@ie.knightfrank.com
             Ireland
                                                                               knightfrank.com/research

             Investment                                                                                                                                                                                                               Adrian Trueick, Director                                Daniel Shannon, Director
             Market Overview
             Research, Q3 2021

             Special Focus – The Dublin Industrial Property Market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      adrian.trueick@ie.knightfrank.com                       daniel.shannon@ie.knightfrank.com

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Peter Flanagan, Director                                Gavin Maguire, Associate Director
                                                                                                                                                  New Homes                                                                           peter.flanagan@ie.knightfrank.com                       gavin.maguire@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                              Construction Survey
                                                                                                                                                                        2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Ross Fogarty, Director
Dublin Investment Market
Dublin Investments Q3 2021_FINAL.indd 1                                               09/11/2021 15:24

                                                                                                                                    New Homes Construction
Overview Q3 2021                                                                                                                    Survey 2021                                                                                       ross.fogarty@ie.knightfrank.com

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