DroughtScape WINTER 2022 - National Drought Mitigation Center
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DroughtScape WINTER 2022 QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER How bad was it? Quarterly and annual drought and impact summaries highlight extremes National Climate Assessment taps NDMC expertise Tonya Haigh, NDMC Social Science coordinator, is a coauthor for the Northern Great Plains Region What does drought look like for you? Choose from several ways to share photos and observations DROUGHT SCIENCE PLANNING SENSE
About the cover Drying pond in Sandy Creek Environmental Park in Durham, North From the Director Carolina, December 14, 2021. Photo submitted by a CMOR user. Contents I hope all of you reading the first 1 From the Director DroughtScape of 2022 have had a happy and productive New Year so 2 4th quarter climate summary far. Unfortunately, drought conditions don’t reset with the turn of the calendar 4 Annual climate & drought summary or the change of a season. Just over 55% of the Lower 48 was experiencing 8 4th quarter drought impact summary moderate drought or worse as of Jan. 11 Annual drought impact summary 18, 2022, the week that drought coverage set a U.S. Drought Monitor-era 14 Drought Center develops new record. Starting on Sept. 29, 2020, objective blend tools drought has covered at least 40% of the Lower 48, a streak of 69 weeks. 15 U.S. Drought Monitor email alerts As the NDMC’s Brian Fuchs put it Mark Svoboda recently, we are seeing that drought now 16 Which reporting system is right for comes in all shapes and sizes, and at any you? time. And we are seeing how drought contributes to disasters across a broad scope. Long-term drought conditions in Colorado have been cited 18 Statewide CMOR use produces as a contributing factor in the recent rapid wildfire that claimed over 900 clear picture of drought in North homes in the Boulder area this winter. The conditions that contributed to Dakota this USDM-era record-long period of drought, as well as scores of impacts that have resulted from it, are cataloged in our annual climate 20 NDMC’s Haigh contributes to and impact summaries. Our climatologist, Curtis Riganti, and impacts National Climate Assessment specialist, Denise Gutzmer, also zero in on recent trends with the quarterly climate and impact summaries. Each is well worth the read. Along with a look back at 2021, this issue of DroughtScape ndmc@unl.edu Cory Matteson, Editor highlights several ways in which the NDMC is helping inform everyone from experts to the general public about drought conditions, and how they can help us better pinpoint where drought is developing and how drought.unl.edu it is affecting people who live there. I’m extremely excited to announce that the Drought Center recently launched its new weekly and gridded long- and short-term @DroughtCenter objective blends maps, which will help provide USDM authors with an early point of reference each week as they develop the latest Drought Monitor map. While they are upgraded versions of maps that USDM @DroughtCenter authors requested at the very first U.S. Drought Monitor Forum, they are available for anyone to view at ndmcblends.unl.edu. We strive to go.unl.edu/droughtflix share our science with the public, which is why we also developed a tool that lets you receive email alerts when drought conditions change in your neighborhood. Learn how to sign up for the Drought Alert go.unl.edu/supportndmc Request on page 15. And on page 16, learn how you can best submit drought conditions observations to a number of drought monitoring networks. Then read how North Dakota’s state climatologist worked with the NDMC’s Kelly Helm Smith to streamline the drought reporting process using the Condition Monitoring Observation Reports system (page 18). State climatologists: If that gives you any ideas about how you could use CMOR, reach out. We’re here to help. ❍ The University of Nebraska–Lincoln is an equal opportunity educator and employer. © 2022 National Drought Mitigation Center DROUGHTSCAPE 1 Winter | 2022
FOURTH QUARTER OF 2021 CLIMATE SUMMARY Southern Plains saw more drought in 4th quarter of 2021 By Curtis Riganti NDMC climatologist Drought classifications are based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Details on the extent and severity of drought are online: droughtmonitor.unl.edu. The outlook integrates existing conditions with forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. National Summary I n the final quarter of 2021, drought conditions developed or worsened in parts of the central and southern Great Plains, particularly in eastern Colorado, western Kansas, the Texas Panhandle, and western Oklahoma. Drought also developed and worsened in northern Louisiana (and Change in U.S. Drought Monitor categories between September 28, 2021 and the adjacent ArkLaTex region), December 28, 2021. Warm colors represent worsening drought conditions, and western Mississippi, and the cool colors represent improved drought conditions. Carolinas and Virginia. Drought conditions improved in parts of the northern Great Plains and Upper moderate drought grew from about Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, particularly in Iowa, 79 million to about 100 million over northwestern Maine, south-central Minnesota, and the Dakotas, though the final quarter. Wisconsin, and parts of central conditions mostly worsened in Montana. Above-normal Wisconsin. West of the Continental Precipitation precipitation occurred in the final Divide, drought conditions generally quarter in northeast Illinois, northern stayed the same or improved, with Indiana, northwest Ohio, and During the final quarter of 2021, the largest improvements coming in southeast Lower Michigan. Wetter- very dry weather enveloped eastern northwest Montana, Idaho, than-normal conditions also Colorado and adjacent southwest Washington, and Oregon. occurred in North Dakota and Nebraska, western Kansas, New northwest Minnesota. Largely driven Drought Mexico, western Texas, and western Oklahoma. This dryness set the by storm systems in December, stage for several wildfire and dust above-normal precipitation fell During the last quarter of 2021, storm events during December across much of California, Nevada, moderate drought coverage storm systems; please see the 2021 northern Utah, parts of western increased from 40.05% to 46.23% Annual Climate and Drought Colorado, far northwest Washington, near the end of December. Despite Summary, also in this issue of southeast Idaho, and southwest the increase in overall drought DroughtScape, or the December Wyoming. These December storm coverage, other drought categorical 2021 Climate and Drought Summary systems helped to deposit large coverages remained near constant for further information on these snowpacks after what had been a or decreased. Severe drought events. After a wet August slow start to the high elevation snow coverage was mostly unchanged, associated with Hurricane Ida, season in the West. Precipitation in dropping slightly from 30.61% to Louisiana and Mississippi and Hawaii ended up being a bit above 30.3% . Extreme drought coverage southwest Alabama saw much drier normal or near normal in most areas dropped from 19.32 to 11.7%, and than normal weather from October for the final quarter, following a very exceptional drought coverage through December. Drier-than- wet December; much of the state dropped from 6.07 to 1.3%. The normal weather also occurred in the had been in drought entering population experiencing at least Winter | 2022 2 DROUGHTSCAPE
December. East-central Alaska saw above-normal precipitation during the final quarter, while parts of southeast Alaska were a little drier than normal. Parts of southern and northwest Puerto Rico were drier than normal, and very dry weather continued in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Temperature A large portion of the contiguous U.S. experienced warmer-than-normal temperatures during the fourth quarter of 2021. In particular, roughly the central third from the Mississippi River to the Continental Divide was unusually warm, with widespread temperature readings from 4 to 6 degrees above normal and scattered readings from 6 to 8 degrees above normal, particularly in Texas. The eastern U.S. was also warmer than normal, though temperatures there were generally 2 to 4 degrees warmer High Plains Regional Climate Center than normal, with some anomalies Standardized precipitation index for October through December 2021. This statistic shows how unusually high or low precipitation totals were for October of 4 to 6 degrees above normal in through December, compared to normal October through December the Midwest and in western precipitation totals for a location. Pennsylvania and New York. Far northern Montana, northern California, and northwest Washington saw temperatures near or below normal, and temperatures in much of Nevada, southern California, and south Florida were near normal for the final quarter. ❍ High Plains Regional Climate Center December 2021 monthly temperature anomalies compared to normal values for December (in degrees Farenheit). DROUGHTSCAPE 3 Winter | 2022
2021 ANNUAL CLIMATE & DROUGHT SUMMARY Western drought persisted through much of 2021 By Curtis Riganti NDMC Climatologist A cross much of the U.S., moderate and severe drought coverage increased during 2021, while coverage of extreme and exceptional drought decreased slightly. Within the year, a few local significant drought events came and went as well. On the whole, drought continued in the West, though this improved somewhat during the second half of the year. Drought also occurred over the central and southern portions of the western Great Plains, primarily in the winter and early spring, then again late in autumn, with a reprieve in the form of wet conditions in between. Widespread drought formed and dissipated in Hawaii. Other extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies, such as Hurricane Ida in Drought category changes between the U.S. Drought Monitor maps valid on the eastern U.S., anomalous cold in December 29, 2020 and December 28, 2021. Warm colors represent worsening the central and southern U.S. in drought conditions, and cool colors represent improved drought conditions. February, and anomalous warmth across a large swath of the country in December, occurred in 2021 and will be detailed herein. From the last drought conditions also occurred in the month. The persistent cold USDM map of 2020 to the first eastern Colorado and adjacent weather and winter precipitation USDM map of 2022, moderate portions of western Kansas and (much of it in the form of snow) was drought coverage increased from Nebraska. Over the entirety of the impactful, particularly in Texas and 40.97 to 45.82%, severe drought first quarter of 2021, the northern Oklahoma. Widespread power coverage increased from 28.61 to Great Plains and Upper Midwest outages and pipe bursts occurred in 29.35%, extreme drought coverage were generally a few degrees the southern Great Plains as a result decreased from 18.56 to 10.33%, warmer than normal. A corridor from of the cold snap, with some of the and exceptional drought coverage eastern Wyoming into the Texas power outage problems extending dropped from 8.26 to 1.3%. Panhandle saw temperatures farther north in the Great Plains. From January through March, generally 2 to 4 degrees colder than Parts of the central Great Plains, drought that was ongoing at the normal during this period. In the particularly Nebraska, southeast beginning of the year evolved in eastern U.S., temperatures generally Wyoming, northeast Colorado, and some regions. Drought conditions were near normal or 2 to 4 degrees northwest Kansas, saw above- generally worsened in south Texas, warmer than normal. Despite the normal (or much above normal) where extreme drought expanded aforementioned overall statistics, precipitation between January and and exceptional drought was February 2021 was anomalously March, primarily driven by wet introduced. Some improvement to cold over a large portion of the Great conditions in March. drought conditions occurred in Plains and western portions of the From April through June southwest and central parts of Midwest. A large expanse saw (hereafter referred to as the “second Arizona. Improvement to drought temperatures at least 9 degrees quarter”), very dry weather occurred conditions occurred in Hawaii during below normal for February, from in parts of the Upper Midwest and the first quarter of the year. Drought central Montana southward to north northern Great Plains, and in parts conditions worsened in the western Texas and eastward to Illinois and of the northwest U.S., particularly Dakotas and in adjacent northeast Wisconsin. Within this area, a few the northern Sierra Nevada, Montana. Parts of Washington and spots in eastern Nebraska and Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Oregon saw improvement to drought central Montana came in at 15 and Montana. Dry weather also conditions, and improvement in degrees or more below normal for occurred in eastern Kentucky and Winter | 2022 4 DROUGHTSCAPE
adjacent states and in northern New England. Above-normal precipitation occurred in southeast New Mexico, parts of north-central and west- central Texas, and the Gulf Coast region of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. During the second quarter, temperatures were generally 1 to locally 5 degrees warmer than normal west of the Continental Divide and north of Interstate 80. Temperatures from central Texas into the Southeast were generally 1 to 3 degrees below normal. In June, warmer-than-normal temperatures were spread across much of the contiguous U.S., with the exception of the south-central and southeast regions. The northern Great Plains and the West, in particular the northwest states, were much warmer than normal in June, with many sites recording temperatures at least 6 degrees above normal. The above-normal precipitation in south Texas and the Edwards U.S. Drought Monitor map for December 28, 2021, the last USDM map for 2021. Plateau removed much of the drought in this region by the end of the second quarter, leaving a couple spots along the Rio Grande in During the third quarter of 2021 quarter, temperatures in the moderate long-term drought at the (July-September), drought continued southern U.S. were generally within end of June. Drought areas had also to expand and intensify in the a couple degrees of normal. mostly retreated west out of the northwest U.S. and in Minnesota, Temperatures were mostly warmer Texas Panhandle, and some while conditions improved markedly than normal in the north-central and improvement to conditions also in Arizona and southern Utah. Short- western U.S., with most areas occurred in the Permian Basin. term drought also began a quick coming in between 2 and 4 degrees Drought conditions expanded in onset in late August and September above normal. Parts of California, New England during the second in the southern Great Plains and in Oregon, Montana, Utah, South quarter, with some severe drought parts of eastern Colorado, Dakota, North Dakota, and northern developing in Maine and northern southwest and western Nebraska, Minnesota finished the quarter 4 to New Hampshire. Drought expanded and adjacent parts of northwest and 6 degrees above normal. Above- across parts of northern Iowa, southwest Kansas. Improvement in normal precipitation (including southern Wisconsin, and northern drought conditions in Arizona and some major events) fell in southeast Illinois, with parts of Chicagoland southern Utah occurred due to a wet Louisiana, southern Mississippi, ending up in extreme drought in the monsoon period. Drought intensity northern Alabama, parts of Georgia, latter half of June. Extreme drought, and coverage peaked in mid to late and central Tennessee. A flood and some exceptional drought, August in Minnesota and Iowa as a disaster occurred in late August in expanded along the Missouri River result of continued dry weather and the western portion of central in parts of the Dakotas and far warmer-than-normal temperatures. Tennessee, in which 20 people died northern Nebraska. Above-normal In September, drought conditions after 10-15 inches of rain fell in precipitation and near-normal began to improve in these areas. parts of the area around Waverly. temperatures in eastern Colorado Very dry weather occurred along the Hurricane Ida struck the Gulf Coast allowed for drought to cease east of North Dakota-Montana border in the of Louisiana and headed northeast, the Front Range of the Rocky third quarter, as well as in the west- delivering flooding rain, powerful Mountains. Drought conditions central Great Plains, particularly in winds, and destructive storm surge began to expand in Minnesota southeast Wyoming, western in the last few days of August. during the second quarter, a sign of Nebraska, eastern Colorado, Flooding, and generally above- conditions that would worsen northwest Kansas, and parts of the normal precipitation, were also a significantly later. As a result of the western Texas and Oklahoma problem in the Northeast after hot and dry weather, drought panhandles and northeast New Hurricane Ida’s remnants tracked conditions expanded and worsened Mexico. By the end of September, there. A tornado outbreak affected in the northwest U.S. short-term drought had expanded parts of eastern Pennsylvania and across these areas. During the third New Jersey, while flash flooding DROUGHTSCAPE 5 Winter | 2022
struck New York City as Ida’s remnants passed through. Far northern New England missed out on the above-normal precipitation, however, and a small area of moderate and severe drought persisted. The final quarter of 2021 was characterized by weather and climate extremes in many areas, as well as an expansion of drought in parts of the Great Plains. With the exception of parts of the West, much of the contiguous U.S. saw warmer-than-normal temperatures from October through December. Temperatures across a large expanse of the Great Plains were 4 to 6 degrees above normal, with localized spots 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Dry weather enveloped eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico, as well as adjacent parts of western Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. When combined with the drier July through Standardized precipitation index for 2021, computed from NWS weather station data. This statistic shows how unusual precipitation totals are for a location, with September in this region and the negative numbers being dry anomalies and positive numbers being wet anomalies. anomalously warm temperatures, short-term drought quickly expanded and worsened in this region, setting the stage for storm systems in December to adversely Valley into the Ohio River Valley, with wildfires also occurred in Kansas, impact the region. Short-term Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma, and Texas. Near the end drought also developed in Louisiana Missouri being hit with numerous of December, very strong winds and Mississippi in the midst of very strong tornadoes and a couple impacted the Boulder, Colorado dry weather in the final quarter. violent tornadoes, which resulted in area, which helped to spread a Some short-term drought also numerous fatalities and widespread wildfire in areas experiencing developed in parts of the Mid- destruction. The second storm extreme drought. This wildfire Atlantic states, where precipitation system roared across the central resulted in a few fatalities and was below normal from October Great Plains and Upper Midwest on widespread destruction. In the midst through the end of the year. As December 15, leading to a myriad of of the destructive December alluded to earlier, much warmer than impacts. Widespread damaging weather in the Great Plains and normal temperatures, particularly thunderstorm winds affected areas Midwest, these storm systems east of the Rocky Mountains, had from central Nebraska and north- helped to deliver heavy mountain many impacts. During October, central Kansas to parts of southern snows to large portions of the West. much of the Great Lakes region saw Minnesota and Wisconsin as a In the last couple weeks of the year, temperatures from 6 to 8 degrees derecho, which was highly unusual drought conditions improved above normal, which delayed the for how far north and late in the year markedly across the region, onset of autumn foliage in parts of it occurred. Within the thunderstorm particularly in California, Nevada, the region. Warm and humid air in line, numerous tornadoes formed, Utah, Idaho, Oregon, and late October helped to fuel a tornado including some in Minnesota, the Washington, though long-term outbreak just to the south of St. first time that December tornadoes drought remained in many locations. Louis, which resulted in several had been observed there. Finally, drought conditions, after strong/intense tornadoes. In Widespread damaging non- worsening in much of Hawaii December, the U.S. (as a whole) saw thunderstorm winds also occurred through the end of November, were its warmest December on record, as in parts of Kansas, Colorado, Texas, removed by the beginning of did many individual states. Two Oklahoma, and Nebraska, which January after widespread significant powerful storm systems traversed induced a widespread dust storm as precipitation. the central U.S. in the middle of strong winds lofted dust in the areas Over the course of 2021, the December. The first resulted in a of the western Great Plains percent coverage of moderate tornado outbreak that affected experiencing short-term drought. In drought hovered within roughly 5% areas from the mid-Mississippi River addition to the dust storm, several of the 40% mark for much of the Winter | 2022 6 DROUGHTSCAPE
peaked at 8.55% in late May, and ended the year with a minimum of 1.59%. In terms of population experiencing moderate drought, the year began with about 70 million people in moderate drought areas. This number fell to about 60 million people in the middle of February, peaked at about 102 million people in late April, and ended the year at roughly 99 million people. At the beginning of the year, about 43 million people were in severe drought areas. This number dropped to about 34 million people in the middle of February, grew to a maximum of about 67 million people in the middle of June, and finished the year at about 56 million people. At the start of 2021, about 23 million people were experiencing extreme drought. The population in extreme drought reached a maximum of about 45 million February 2021 temperature departures from normal (in degrees Farenheit). people in the middle of June, and eventually settled to a minimum of about 18 million people by the end of 2021. At the onset of 2021, year, reaching a low of 36.31% in August, and finished the year at roughly 8 million people were in late May and reaching a high of 30.3%. Extreme drought coverage exceptional drought areas. This 46.53% in early December. Severe began the year at 17.63%, peaked at population grew to about 19 million drought coverage started 2021 at 22.39% in the middle of August, and people by the end of August, then 27.49%, reached a minimum of bottomed out at 11.7% at the end of fell to about 390,000 people by the 24.74% at the end of March, reached the year. Exceptional drought end of the year. ❍ a maximum of 32.65% in early coverage began the year at 7.91%, MONTHLY DROUGHT AND IMPACT SUMMARIES For a more detailed review of conditions, please visit: drought.unl.edu/Publications/MonthlySummary.aspx DROUGHTSCAPE 7 Winter | 2022
4TH QUARTER 2021 DROUGHT IMPACT SUMMARY Drought improved in the West, Northern Plains, but flared in the Southern Plains, Mid-Atlantic By Denise Gutzmer NDMC Drought Impacts Specialist T he NDMC added 329 impacts to the Drought Impact Reporter in the last quarter of 2021 as a hot, dry year wound down. So much of the U.S. West was in drought, and it was such an intense level of drought, touching every aspect of life in the West from agriculture and water supplies to recreation and human health. California had the most impacts with 128, recording many water restrictions and supply issues. La Niña forecast for winter, into spring This year was the second year of a La Niña with a 90% chance of La Dried pond in Sheridan County, North Dakota, December 3, 2021. Photo submitted Niña conditions prevailing through by a CMOR user. the Northern Hemisphere winter and into spring 2022 during March through May, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center and reported by Lower Colorado River precipitation being responsible for the snow drought. Several ski Reuters on Nov. 11. The pattern is linked to floods and drought. Basin agreement resorts in northern Utah had not opened in early December due to the Water authorities from Arizona, absence of snow. Most ski resorts Drought concerns in the Nevada and California signed an agreement on Dec. 15, voluntarily in the Rockies were eagerly awaiting snow to open. California resorts, western U.S. offering to reduce their share of water to be taken from the Colorado too, were needing snow to open. Hay supplies, drought, dairies in the California River to keep Lake Mead fuller, as reported by Associated Press. The West, ranchers 500+ Plan requires that the states As the Golden State entered its Cattle ranchers and dairy farmers take 500,000 acre-feet less in 2022 water year with low reservoirs, these in the Great Plains and West struggled and 2023, depending on water usage are some of the events that occurred to feed their herds after a hot, dry and conservation in the area, with the in the last quarter of 2021: summer. Pasture and hay growth aim of averting mandatory cuts in the were poor with over a third of U.S. hay- near future. States must also make a California statewide drought growing areas in drought across the financial investment, and the federal emergency declaration West to the Northern Plains. Hay for government would also contribute. sale was hard to find, and some Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a Snow drought in the livestock were being sold early. statewide drought emergency for The challenges were greater for California on Oct. 19 and urged dairy operators. Many California dairy farmers could not grow half western U.S. more water conservation. Fifty of the Golden State’s 58 counties had their feed as usual and bought feed Through early December, winter been in a state of drought at steep prices instead. Many did not bring much snow to the emergency since July, and Gov. operations went out of business or western U.S., as reported by Newsom added the eight remaining were on the cusp of doing so. Associated Press, with warm counties and reiterated his call for temperatures and lack of Winter | 2022 8 DROUGHTSCAPE
water conservation of 15%. During the previous drought, Gov. Jerry Brown mandated urban water conservation of 25%, according to the Los Angeles Times. Low reservoir levels at start of water year The Bureau of Reclamation’s Central Valley Project began the 2022 water year on Oct. 1 with 3.21 million acre-feet of water, for one of the lowest starting points in recent history as drought persisted in California, according to the Bureau of Reclamation. Of the 329 impacts added to the Drought Impact Reporter from October through October atmospheric river helpful, December, most came from California, where the DIR media search and moderation process identified 128 impacts. Colorado and Texas followed with but not an end to drought 40 and 35 impacts, respectively. In late October, an atmospheric river brought abundant precipitation to northern and central California, setting new daily precipitation records and bringing some relief to depleted reservoirs. The AR dropped 8 trillion gallons of rain, leading to the wettest October for Northern California and Nevada in decades, according to SFGate. The fire season was dampened and likely at an end in Northern California. Some water bodies, like Lake Tahoe and Lake Oroville, benefitted from the storms. Some ski resorts in the northern Sierras received 30 or more inches of snow. Drought relief, response and restrictions (23.3%) was the top impact category Ultimately the torrential rain in the October–December 2021 Drought Impact Reporter. was just enough and just in the nick of time, but more storms will be needed, per the Los Angeles Times. to be put in place if the winter Coast in the mid and latter parts of Early December California dryness persisted. December, replenishing some preparations for continued dry The State Water Resources reservoirs and dropping heavy snow. conditions Control Board proposed new By the end of the month, California emergency drought regulations in had received more precipitation Although California received early December to discourage since the start of the water year, some beneficial precipitation in late water waste as supplies were low beginning Oct. 1, than was received October, November was very dry, and the public was falling short of in the previous 12 months, and the Dec. 1 snowpack left much the voluntary 15% water use according to the National Weather to be desired. California cities and reduction urged by Gov. Newsom, Service, as reported by San farms were cautioned that they according to San Mateo Daily Francisco Chronicle. The state’s should not expect to receive water Journal. precipitation volume was already from California’s State Water Project The proposed regulations were 33.9 trillion gallons, exceeding the (SWP) in 2022, as reported by approved in January. 33.6 trillion gallons from the Associated Press News. This is the previous year. On average, California earliest date that the Department of More atmospheric river activity gets about 70 trillion gallons of Water Resources has announced a really deepened the Sierra Nevada precipitation annually. 0% water allocation, indicative of snowpack in December just how serious drought conditions were as the Sierra Nevada held little Atmospheric rivers unleashed snow. Mandatory restrictions were heavy winter storms on the West DROUGHTSCAPE 9 Winter | 2022
Winter wheat needing Colorado’s Marshall Fire Forest Service on Nov. 29 issued a ban on all open burning and moisture in the Central, On Dec. 30, a small fire rapidly burgeoned into a massive, wind- canceled all burning permits statewide to protect lives, property Southern Plains driven firestorm known as the and forestland, according to WWAY- Marshall Fire between Boulder and TV3 in Leland, N.C. A number of Winter wheat on the Great Denver that consumed nearly 1,100 counties in southern Virginia also Plains has gotten off to a poor start homes and other buildings, adopted burn bans, per WSLS in in some states like Oklahoma where blackened 9.4 square miles and was Roanoke, Va. the small plants did not have robust estimated to have caused $513 For more details, please visit the root systems and will not cope well million in damage, making this the Drought Impact Reporter. ❍ with adverse conditions, as reported most destructive wildfire in by Reuters. Dry soils and lack of Colorado’s history, per Associated snow cover leave the crop Press. vulnerable to winterkill. Drought Warm temperatures and dry affects parts of the Great Plains, conditions primed the landscape for posing a challenge for the wheat this disastrous fire. July through from Colorado and Nebraska to mid-December 2021 was the Texas. warmest and driest on record in High winds from the Dec. 15 Denver, as reported by KDVR-TV FOX windstorm stripped the U.S. Plains 31 Denver. of needed moisture and damaged Developing drought in the winter wheat crop, which was already dealing with dry conditions. the Southeast & fire While some Kansas wheat was blown out of the ground, other wheat was severely damaged, but may be able to recover with the help danger of moisture, per Reuters. Some The southeastern U.S. dried out wheat, whitened and stripped of rapidly in November. The dry leaves, seems to have sustained conditions, on top of the senescing damage by static electricity from vegetation of autumn, meant blowing dust, per a Kansas State heightened fire danger and University extension agronomist. increased fire activity in West In Texas, strong winds blew out Virginia, Virginia and the Carolinas. and killed the wheat, making it a Cities and counties began enacting total loss, according to the Texas burn bans toward the end of Farm Bureau. November. The North Carolina DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER To view all impacts and reports, please visit: droughtreporter.unl.edu Winter | 2022 10 DROUGHTSCAPE
ANNUAL 2021 DROUGHT IMPACT SUMMARY Drought gripped the Western U.S. in 2021 By Denise Gutzmer winter. Some wet winter storms California drought emergency arrived in late October and in declarations NDMC Drought Impacts Specialist December, bringing some needed relief, but more precipitation is Gov. Gavin Newsom declared 2021 was an active year in terms needed to continue the escape from drought emergencies for Mendocino of drought. The drought. and Sonoma counties on April 21 year began with 48.99% of the and added another 39 counties in continental U.S. in drought (D1-D4) Low water supplies in California— northern California and the San on Jan. 1 and stayed around that snowpack melted, but reservoirs did Joaquin Valley on May 10, according level throughout the year before not fill as expected to The Mercury News. No ending at 54.81% on Dec. 31, 2021. mandatory water restrictions were California’s state and federal ordered, as was done during the Roughly half of the Lower 48— water projects both made dire largely the West—was consistently previous drought, because announcements about water Californians were using 16% less in drought throughout 2021. deliveries on March 23 as the winter Most of the 1,202 impacts water than they did in 2013 as season brought scant precipitation, conservation had become a habit. logged in the Drought Impact leaving water supplies short for the Reporter in 2021 were for states Varied drought impacts coming year. Water deliveries for the west of the Mississippi River. Central Valley Project, which were in the West California was the state with the initially set at 5%, were delayed with most impacts with 302 no date set for water release. The documenting numerous water State Water Project revealed a restrictions and water-related issues Drought in the western U.S. reduction in water allocation to 5%, as water supplies were lower than began ramping up in the fall of down from the 10% initial allocation expected after the snowpack 2019. It expanded, intensified and announced in December 2020. resulted in less runoff than remained entrenched through the Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada expected. present. amounted to 59% of historical average on April 1, but melted away California’s drought These are many of the concerns early. The volume of water that was faced in the West during 2021: issues expected to refill reservoirs was dramatically reduced by evaporation Low snowpack in Colorado and parched soil that absorbed the California’s most recent two water and allowed 685,000 acre-feet Snowpack was below normal in years of drought were among the of water to just vanish, per East Bay Colorado for much of the winter of driest in the state’s history. The state Times. Water districts and 2020–21, raising concerns about desperately needed a wet winter to communities ratcheted up water supplies across the state. A end the drought and replenish water conservation requests and mid-March snowstorm brought supplies, but a second year of the La mandates as it became clearer that Colorado to 91% of its median Niña pattern left southern California more conservation was needed to snowpack, but river basins west of and the southern U.S. more likely to extend water supplies in case next the Continental Divide remained up experience dry conditions again this winter was also dry. to 19% below normal, per Colorado DROUGHTSCAPE 11 Winter | 2022
Public Radio. The Colorado Basin wildfire count in the U.S. exceeded wildfires—Dixie, Monument, and River Forecast Center forecast April- 100 blazes for a while in August. Caldor—were climbing the chart of July water supplies ranging from California saw plenty of wildfires the Top 20 Largest California 60-85% of normal in parts of the in August exhibiting extreme and Wildfires kept by Cal Fire. While the basin. Given the low soil moisture new fire behavior never witnessed size of the Dixie and Caldor fires due to 2020 being the second driest before this year. Three massive was certainly significant, their year in Colorado’s recorded history, it was expected that the soil would absorb much of the moisture from snowpack and reduce runoff in 2021. Grim water shortages in New Mexico Most of New Mexico was in exceptional drought during the first quarter of 2021 as winter storms failed to deliver much moisture, presenting problems for water supplies. Low flows on the Rio Grande River, low reservoirs and New Mexico owing water to Texas all meant poor water outlooks for farmers relying on the river for water. For irrigation districts on the California led the nation with 302 impacts recorded in the Drought Impact Rio Grande River, the start to the Reporter. Texas and Colorado followed with 142 and 130 impacts, respectively. season was delayed, deliveries were very low, and the seasons were to end early, per the Las Cruces Sun News. Wildfires in the West Drought and extreme heat contributed to the challenge of fighting wildfires in the West this summer. As August began, eighty- some wildfires flared in the Northwest, largely in western Montana and northern Idaho. The U.S. Forest Service announced its intention in August to fight wildfires more aggressively to protect towns and infrastructure in the West as drought conditions made blazes In 2021, the Drought Impact Reporter recorded 1,202 impacts. harder to control, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. The large Winter | 2022 12 DROUGHTSCAPE
behavior was especially noteworthy. Reclamation announced the first Corn and failed small grains Both the Dixie Fire and the Caldor declared water shortage in the were cut for livestock feed in parts Fire burned from one side of the Colorado River Basin on Aug. 16. of North Dakota and elsewhere. Sierra to the other within weeks of Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will each other, per Los Angeles Times. receive less water in 2022, with Diminished wheat production Fire officials blame drought and Arizona farmers seeing the biggest The planting, growing and climate change for the unheard-of cut in water deliveries as the state harvest were rough for spring wheat fire behavior. gets 18% less of its share of river in the Northern Plains in 2021. While Fire activity was unusually high water. Nevada will lose 7% in 2022, there was not enough moisture for in the Northwest in 2021. More than while Mexico will get about 5% less. germination in some places, hopeful 1 million acres burned in wildfires in farmers planted and waited for rain, Washington and Oregon through Cherished trout streams threatened but the growing season did not offer Aug. 15, compared with about by drought much, per DTN – Progressive 52,500 acres by the same time in Farmer. For some wheat growers, Drought and heat have reduced 2020, according to the Northwest the crop was of better quality and trout streams in the U.S. West to Interagency Coordination Center and better yield than expected, while for slower, warmer ribbons of water reported by KING-TV NBC 5 in others, the wheat was hayed for than usual. Yellowstone National Seattle. Drought allowed the fire feed, abandoned, or zeroed out by Park, Montana and Colorado season to get a head start this year. insurance. ❍ imposed fishing restrictions to limit First ever water shortage declaration stress on the fish during the hotter times of day, but Idaho and in the Colorado River Basin Wyoming did not, per Associated Lake Mead had fallen about 140 Press News. feet since 2000, per USA Today, and was 37% full in early June. The Livestock sales, poor hay growth previous 12 months were some of Extreme heat and drought dried the driest on record across the up pastures, leaving no hay or feed Colorado River Basin. Inflows into for cattle, pushing many cattle Lake Powell from April through July producers from Canada across the were estimated to be just 26% of the U.S. and Mexico to sell livestock, as long-term average, leading to steep reported by Reuters. The liquidation drops in both Powell and Mead, the of breeding stock is expected to two largest reservoirs in the limit cattle production for years, Colorado River Basin. tighten the North American beef As the water level at Lake Mead supply, and increase prices continued its downward trend into consumers will pay, according to record low territory, the Bureau of ranchers and cattle experts. DROUGHTSCAPE 13 Winter | 2022
Drought Center develops new objective blend tools By Cory Matteson NDMC Communications Specialist With funding from the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist, the National Drought Mitigation Center developed short- (left) and long-term (right) T he U.S. Drought Monitor map objective blends of drought-related data to help Drought Monitor authors get a is not strictly objective, in the first glimpse of conditions across the U.S. The products are finer-scale, gridded sense that its authors use versions of the objective blends developed by the Climate Prediction Center expert judgment to reconcile what early in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. different streams of data are saying about drought. They also incorporate expert local interpretations of data, such as how blended several sets of climate and long-term drought, the blends conditions are affecting people and division data together. The “objective provide Drought Monitor authors the environment. But objective data blends” were born. NOAA’s Climate with a helpful reference to glance at is the backbone of the process, and Prediction Center, which developed and build upon. But their usefulness the mix, or blend, of objective data the product based on the authors’ diminished over time as the varies by region and season. input, houses the blends online. resolution of other data improved Since the U.S. Drought Monitor Over the past 22 years, more and the CPC-housed objective went operational in 1999, its authors data have started feeding into the blends remained the same. have followed a similar blueprint for U.S. Drought Monitor process, and “Early on in the process of the examining data they use to build the the network of observers has grown, objective blends, authors were able weekly map that shows the latest leading to a higher resolution to use them as a ‘first guess’ to direct drought conditions across the depiction of drought conditions them to areas that may need to be country and its territories. They study across the country. But the objective investigated further,” Fuchs said. key indices that provide information blend maps remained largely The recently released objective about precipitation, soil moisture, unchanged. This year, the National blends developed by the NDMC, snowpack and other drought Drought Mitigation Center is unlike the CPC originals, are indicators to see where drought changing that with the release of produced with gridded datasets, conditions could develop or persist, newly developed short- and long- which Fuchs said produce a detailed and they compare that information term objective blend tools. picture of drought conditions across with on-the-ground reports. Even NDMC climatologist and the country. The short- and long-term when there were fewer drought longtime U.S. Drought Monitor blends are produced with different indicators, it was a lot to assimilate. author Brian Fuchs said that the percentages and temporal scales of So Drought Monitor authors sought original objective blends served a drought indices that include the to develop a tool that could help unique and helpful purpose, in that Standardized Precipitation Index, the them. The author-led effort, which they provided authors with two Standardized Precipitation- began during the first U.S. Drought maps that they could glance at that Evaporation Index and the NOAH Soil Monitor Forum in 2000, led to the showed both short-term and long- Moisture index. Fuchs said the creation of a weekly product that term drought conditions across the NDMC’s three U.S. Drought Monitor would provide short-term and long- U.S. With only a few days to authors have been using the blends term depictions of drought conditions synthesize numerous datasets into internally for several months to help based on a weighted model that a single map that shows both short- make the USDM maps and they were Winter | 2022 14 DROUGHTSCAPE
shared internally with the full USDM further, and welcomed feedback and the short- and long-term scales at a authoring group during the last suggestions from the drought finer resolution which could be quarter of 2021. The new blends monitoring and climatology helpful in digging into the data went public at the start of 2022, and communities on the new blends. further in an area,” Fuchs said. can be found at ndmcblends.unl.edu. “With the NDMC’s effort, we The work associated with the Fuchs said there are several pending hopefully will go back to utilizing the development of the new objective research questions that will change blends [more] as they are providing blends was funded by USDA’s Office the makeup of the blends even an idea of areas of drought on both of the Chief Economist. ❍ U.S. Drought Monitor feature provides emailed alerts about county-level drought designations NDMC Communications At the Drought Alert Request current conditions reached D3 in site (available here), users select the Maricopa County, and then again if T he latest U.S. Drought Monitor county where they live, or any county conditions improved that led a publishes on Thursday of interest to them in the 50 states. drought monitor author to remove mornings at Then they select a degree of drought D3 conditions from Maricopa droughtmonitor.unl.edu, where users for which they want to receive an County. The automated emails are can find the weekly nationwide email alert. Selecting, for example, tied to the weekly release of the U.S. snapshot of drought conditions, extreme drought (D3) conditions in Drought Monitor and are sent out along with a set of maps, data and Maricopa County, Arizona, would Thursdays at 8 a.m. Central time. ❍ tools that give key context about result in an email being sent if conditions where they live. Now you can also have the latest local information delivered to your inbox. The National Drought Mitigation Center offers county-level email alerts when drought conditions reach or recede from a specific drought designation – moderate drought (D1) to exceptional drought (D4). The feature is called the Drought Alert Request. The product was developed in 2021 as part of the Drought Center’s cooperative agreement with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and is one of several efforts to increase accessibility of U.S. Drought Monitor information for users across the U.S. and its territories. Other efforts have included the development of tribal area maps, state-level drought The Drought Alert Request provides county-level email alerts when impact tables and Spanish-language drought conditions reach or recede from a specific drought designation. editions of the Drought Monitor. DROUGHTSCAPE 15 Winter | 2022
Which reporting system is right for you (and why are there so many)? NDMC Communications Condition Monitoring What’s new with Observer Reports Condition T ools in the Drought Impacts Monitoring Toolkit – droughtimpacts.unl.edu – (CMOR) gather and display what people are saying about drought in different Users can report on dry or wet Observer Reports locations. Several tools, described below, are different ways for conditions, with emphasis on drought impacts, and can upload up (CMOR) for 2022? individuals to share their to five photos. People are experiences. The tools allow people encouraged to file CMOR reports at regular intervals, to build a record ■ We have added a with varying interests and block of questions capabilities to provide information over time. Observers can submit via a browser or mobile app. Anyone about wet and normal related to assessing drought. Comparing information from can submit an observation, with no conditions. This will different sources provides context registration or training required. help users report and validation. Learn more: go.unl.edu/ regularly in wet, CMOR_drought. normal and dry conditions. ■ The block of agricultural questions now asks users to rate conditions on a scale that the U.S. Department of Agriculture uses. Crop and range production questions include a scale from very poor to excellent. Crop producers can also check off information on planting and harvest status. ■ Identifying information. Some contributors don’t want to be publicly identified and others do. The option to provide a screen name lets people choose. ■ Behind the scenes, we are working with states to allow them to tailor a version of the form and map for their needs, Left: A new block of questions helps users report regularly in wet, normal and but with data still dry conditions. flowing into a single Right: CMOR users now have the option to provide a screen name that lets database and onto a people choose how or whether they would like to be identified. nation-wide map. Winter | 2022 16 DROUGHTSCAPE
Left: The Visual Drought Atlas allows users to access photos mapped by U.S. Drought Monitor status, by land use, or by a subjective dry to wet assessment. Another tab shows a map linked to PhenoCam sites. Right: Visual Drought Atlas observers are asked to check a box describing the landscape in their photo. Visual Drought Atlas Community be visible to people assessing drought in your state and across the The National Drought Mitigation Center and partners are working to Collaborative Rain, Hail nation, appearing on our map of drought-related tweets, put your city create a photographic record of and Snow Network and state in the user location field of (CoCoRaHS) what different landscapes look like your Twitter profile and use in dry, normal and wet years. The #drought in your tweet. Tweets that NDMC is building on the trained Volunteer citizen scientists include your photos of field volunteers and archive of Field Days install a special rain gauge and conditions and describe how dry or photos developed by CoCoRaHS and record daily precipitation wet weather is affecting you are the Southern Climate Impacts observations, using either a web particularly valuable. Planning Program. We encourage browser or a mobile app. They have volunteers to upload photos over holidays weekends across the the option to provide additional Support condition monitoring observations growing season, when they may be The Drought Impacts Toolkit on the effects of dry or wet weather. likely to be out with family and and the tools in it that are hosted by The CoCoRaHS organization friends. Upload photos here: the National Drought Mitigation provides excellent community and go.unl.edu/photoatlas Center have been developed with educational messaging, often Mark your 2022 calendars and support from the National Oceanic reinforced by energetic state plan a photo expedition: and Atmospheric Administration’s coordinators. ■ Presidents’ Day: Feb. 21 Sectoral Applications Research Learn more: cocorahs.org ■ Memorial Day: May 30 Program and the National Integrated Tweets ■ Independence Day: July 4 Drought Information System, and ■ Labor Day: Sept. 5 from the U.S. Department of Learn more: If you’d like to increase the odds Agriculture Office of the Chief droughtimpacts.unl.edu/Tools/ that your drought-related tweets will Economist and Risk Management VisualDroughtAtlas.aspx Agency. ❍ DROUGHTSCAPE 17 Winter | 2022
Statewide use of CMOR system helps produce clear, stark picture of 2021 North Dakota drought By Cory Matteson National Drought Mitigation Center details on how they could provide impacts researcher Kelly Helm Smith. valuable information to Drought NDMC Communications Specialist The CMOR-based process of Monitor authors by completing brief providing on-the-ground information surveys that provide key context F rom April 1 to Oct. 31 of 2021, no less than 30.2% of the Lower that Akyüz examined was markedly about current conditions. When users 48 experienced severe drought different from previous efforts to add written descriptions about the (D2) or worse. Drought covered scores gather data across the 19th-largest conditions, and submit photos too, the of states and several regions state with the fourth-smallest data becomes clearer. CMOR reports throughout the growing season, and population and email it to USDM appear on an interactive map layer the spatial scale was evidenced in the authors. One of those efforts, Akyüz that is visible to the general public and 1,550 on-the-ground dispatches said, involved weekly conference calls to U.S. Drought Monitor authors and submitted to the Condition Monitoring with North Dakota’s 53 county to state experts such as Akyuz. Observation Reports (CMOR) system. Extension agents. “She really did a great job in the Californians, Wyomingites, “And I would end up synthesizing beginning of the season,” Akyüz said. Minnesotans, Oregonians and that data ... to respond to the Drought “We knew 2020 was really bad, residents of other drought-affected Monitor [with] a recommended drought especially in western North Dakota, areas across the country shared status,” he said. “So, you can imagine and by the end of 2020, the moisture condition reports and photographs to that would be very time-consuming.” was depleted and most ranches were CMOR. But no state submitted reports From that, the process evolved to overgrazed.” during the growing season at a rate having Extension agents submit Plus, with a La Niña winter, close to that of North Dakota. weekly reports to Akyüz with a Google climatologists were anticipating a dry North Dakotans submitted 803, Forms survey. He would then study the start to 2021. more than half the nationwide total, forms and decide which reports to “We knew the trouble had an overlapping with a period when the copy and paste into his weekly early start, so we started early,” state experienced the worst drought recommendations. Akyüz said. “We started having conditions it has experienced in the 21- “And that was better than the meetings in winter not only with the year history of the U.S. Drought previous method, but still it wasn’t National Drought Mitigation Center Monitor. For three weeks in May, nearly good enough. Then CMOR came.” but also with the state’s emergency 85% of the state was experiencing In early 2021, Akyüz and Miranda managers and the North Dakota extreme drought (D3) or worse (the Meehan, NDSU Extension livestock Department of Agriculture.” largest D3 coverage on record since environmental stewardship specialist, Smith said she appreciated the 2000). The top 29 weeks of D3 or invited Smith to speak to a virtual willingness of the Extension network to worse coverage across North Dakota meeting of Extension agents about adopt a new system. Some occurred in 2021, according to the how CMOR works. She provided downloaded and used a mobile app to Drought Monitor. A concentrated statewide effort before the start of the growing season In 2021, North Dakota experienced the most extreme levels of drought encouraged North Dakota Extension reported in the state since the creation of the U.S. Drought Monitor. Here are specialists to contribute to CMOR, said how some of the 803 Condition Monitoring Observation Reports collected Adnan Akyüz, North Dakota state during the growing season described what that looked like on the ground. climatologist and professor of climatological practice at North Dakota Date: April 1, 2021 State University. Those 803 CMOR submissions, he said, not only helped provide valuable context that shaped his weekly recommendations to U.S. Drought Monitor authors but also County: Golden Valley unlocked aid for the state’s producers from federal assistance programs tied Description: Grasshoppers feeding to the Drought Monitor. on a sunflower. North Dakota’s season-long, statewide effort to submit on-the- ground drought condition reports shows how the CMOR tool can help researchers better understand localized drought impacts, said Winter | 2022 18 DROUGHTSCAPE
submit reports, while others sent information from their computers. “The results from North Dakota in 2021 really demonstrated how effective it is Date: July 26, 2021 County: Grant to have a well-established network with a clearly defined purpose making use of the system,” Smith said. “Adnan and Miranda did a great job of reminding Description: The conditions are Extension specialists to submit weekly severely dry throughout the whole reports, and they helped with some county and beyond. The southern troubleshooting of the system, too.” part of the county originally was For Akyüz, the CMOR archive doing better in terms of moisture would greatly streamline data with significant rainfall received in early June. But they have since eaten synthesis while also allowing him to through those moisture reserves. All continue pointing out to Drought crops are burning up in the constant Monitor authors important heat without any rainfall. descriptions of drought from across the state. “It's a mutual benefit really,” Akyüz said. “You're understanding how the drought is affecting the local conditions that appear on the map, and also to help us identify the areas that need more attention in real time. They also provided the pictures, which is Date: Aug. 16, 2021 sometimes worth more than a million words.” County: Walsh When the growing season concluded, county agents informed Description: Producers are producers that they could take a planting into dry seedbeds. break from CMOR, but Akyüz said Pastures as a whole are very that they will recommend that they short, brown and overgrazed. use CMOR in future seasons. And Some cattle producers are current CMOR reports, he said, will hauling water to livestock. They help future county agents calibrate are running out of hay and the subjective data. They will be able to pastures will not support look at what reports were filed during animals. portions of 2021 when areas of the state were in exceptional or extreme drought. In the middle of the punishing 2021 drought, Akyüz left Fargo to take a driving tour of some of the areas of the state hardest hit by drought. Talking to producers and objective data. It allowed me to producer assistance and aid seeing the drought conditions for capture the concern of the very same programs were triggered by drought himself provided context that other people that are impacted by the conditions experienced across parts objective data cannot, he said. drought. It opened up my mind into of the state during the 2021 growing “It was a tremendous help,” he the minds of the locals. And I think season, “and it’s all because of the said. “I can look at the precipitation my job at that time was to make sure Drought Monitor map that was departure from normal, for example, I that the Drought Monitor author feels driven by CMOR (submissions) and can look at the soil moisture data just the same as I do in my office.” meteorological data,” he said. like the Drought Monitor author can Every time the Drought Monitor “I made a point that their reports do. But what I cannot see is (what I status for North Dakota changed, made a difference,” he said. “And can learn by) tapping into local Akyüz created a PowerPoint then it was reinforced by the director resources such as ranchers and presentation for county agents that of extension services how important farmers. You’ve got to keep in mind included not just the changed map, their reports are, so they became that 90% of the North Dakota but also bullet points that included twice as motivated to participate. I economy depends on agriculture. We anecdotal objective data pulled from think (telling them) week after week are less than 1 million population, and CMOR reports from a particular and letting them know that their we are one of the largest states in the county or region where drought reports really makes a big difference union, and agriculture is everything. status changed. When conditions in their community was the biggest And listening to these reports allowed changed, responses were triggered. motivation factor for the agents to me to see what I couldn’t see by Akyüz said that state and federal participate.” ❍ DROUGHTSCAPE 19 Winter | 2022
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