Dixon Technologies Initiating Coverage - MarketsMojo.com
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16 OCT 2019 Company Report Buy Target Price: Rs 3,649 CMP : Rs. 3,005 Potential Upside : 21% MARKET DATA No. of Shares (Cr) : 1.13 Market Cap (Rs Cr) : Rs. 3,395 Dixon Technologies Free Float : 56% Avg. daily vol (6mth) : 6526 52-w High / Low : 3230/1831 Bloomberg : DIXON IN Sector: Consumer Durables Promoter holding : 38.92% FII / DII : 7.23%/ 22.38 % Powering Durable Brands Price performance 120 80 40 Jul-18 Dec-18 May-19 Oct-19 BSE Sensex Dixon Technolog. Financial Summary (Consolidated) Shareholding pattern Y/E Net Sales EBITDA PAT EPS Change P/E RoE Core RoCE EV/EBITDA Jun-19 Q-o-Q Chg March (Rs Cr) (Rs Cr) (Rs Cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (%) (%) (x) Promoters 38.92 (0.01) FY18 2,853 112 61 54.8 26.5 61.1 23.7 34.9 32.8 FIIs 7.23 1.19 FY19 2,984 135 63 55.9 2.1 42.1 18.2 27.4 19.5 MFs / UTI 22.29 (1.43) FY20E 3,868 181 98 86.6 54.7 34.7 22.9 28.6 18.6 Banks / FIs 0.09 0.05 FY21E 4,754 227 129 114.0 31.7 26.4 24.0 30.4 14.5 Others 31.47 0.2 Source: Company, Axis Securities CMP as on Oct 16, 2019 Hiren Trivedi - CM Research | hiren.trivedi@axissecurities.com | (+91 22 4267 1759) 2
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Investment Rationale Sector: Consumer Durables Dixon Technologies (Dixon) is a leading manufacturer of products for consumer durable brands in India. It has ~9.3% share in Electronic Manufacturing Services providing cost efficient, end to end solutions to MNC’s and domestic OEM’s. Dixon’s products include (i)consumer electronics - LED TVs, (ii) home appliances - Washing Machines, (iii) lighting products - LED bulbs (iv) mobile phones and (v) CCTV & DVR. The company also provides repairs and refurbishment services through its Reverse logistics segment. Dixon is a leading player in Flat Panel Display (FPD) TV with 50%+ market share; in LED Lighting it accounts for ~35%+ domestic volumes and commands 40%+ share in the Washing Machines EMS market. Its key customers include Panasonic, Philips Lighting India, Xiaomi, Samsung, Flipkart, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Lloyds, Haier, Reliance Retail, Wipro, Syska, Polycab and Bajaj Electricals. We expect revenues/earnings to grow at CAGR of 26% / 42.8% respectively over FY19-21E driven by Higher contribution from Faster adoption of consumer Strong growth led by backward Increasing EMS opportunities FPD TV, Lighting & Washing durables by younger population integrated cost effective across segments and higher Machines segments; recovery in propelled by increase in manufacturing and diverse share of ODM revenues Mobiles and strong growth in disposable income product offerings Security Systems We initiate coverage with “BUY” rating and a target price of Rs 3,649 i.e. 21% upside (implies 32x FY21E) * OEM / OEM – Original Equipment Manufacturer / Original Design Manufacturer | EMS – Electronic Manufacturing Services 3
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Investment Rationale Sector: Consumer Durables Higher growth in global and domestic CEA market Indian CEA (Consumer Electronics and Appliances) market is expected to grow at a faster pace of ~19% CAGR between FY19-21E while the global CEA market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~8% between FY18-24E Global *EMS/^ODM market is expected to grow at CAGR of 8.5% between FY19-21E, while India’s EMS/ODM segment is expected to grow at 32.4% CAGR in the same period as many OEM’s outsource their manufacturing requirements in line with their strategy of keeping asset light business model High growth in consumer electronics and increasing EMS presents a huge opportunity for players like Dixon Increasing trend towards ODM manufacturing augur well for Dixon Dixon, a cost efficient solution provider and a leader in ODM segment is well equipped to capitalize on rising OEM’s demand for ODM Company’s ODM share increased from ~15% in FY17 to 38% in FY19 owing to its focus on developing value added products for its customers (20+ ODM products developed) ODM business fetches ~200-300 bps higher margins than OEM business; EBITDA Margins expanded by 92 bps over FY17-FY19 In Home Appliances ODM share continues to be 100%, in lighting its ODM revenue stood at 71% (vs. 40% in FY18), and Consumer Electronics ODM share is 9% (vs. 6% in FY18) which is likely to improve further as Dixon has converted large customer Panasonic from prescriptive mode to ODM mode ^ODM =Original Design Manufacturer |*EMS – Electronic Manufacturing Services 4
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Investment Rationale Sector: Consumer Durables Backward integration- improving cost efficiencies & enhancing product offerings Developed capability in manufacturing critical components, thereby strengthening relationship with customers Reduced dependency on third party suppliers leading to cost efficiencies Increased number of product offerings within key segments like LED lighting, washing machines and FPD TV Ability to provide value added ODM solutions to clients, thus leading to improved margins in key segments Governmental thrust on domestic manufacturing Local manufacturing to get a boost from Government steps to promote India as hub for innovation, design and manufacturing Setting up port-based electronic manufacturing clusters to support local manufacturing and exports Governments thrust on Electricity For All is expected to provide an impetus for increasing demand for consumer durables in rural and semi- urban areas Government push for energy efficient products via Domestic Efficient Lighting Programme (DELP), UJALA have resulted in higher demand for lighting segment The recent customs duty increase on CCTV cameras/DVR’s to 20% from 15% will promote local manufacturing and discourage imports 5
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Investment Rationale… Sector: Consumer Durables Cost advantage over China India’s labour cost at $1.7/hour is almost half vis-à-vis China at $3.3/hour making India an attractive manufacturing destination China is witnessing sharp increase in labour cost as workers focus on highly skilled jobs resulting in lack of manpower at low end of manufacturing value chain Indian manufacturing costs to moderate due to economies of scale, government support (SLNP, Customs duty, Subsidies) and availability of skilled & semi-skilled manpower Strong client relationships, Acquisition of new customers Dixon has strong relationship with existing customers, for e.g. half-a decade with Panasonic, almost 10 years with Philips Similar to global EMS peers Dixon derives higher revenue share from anchor customers, however its constant endeavour is to acquire new customers through new segments and increase offerings within existing segments (e.g. in Lighting segment its anchor customer Philips now contributes ~45% to the segment revenues vs. ~90% earlier) Recent client additions (during FY19) include Xiaomi, Panasonic-Anchor, Syska, Samsung, Flipkart, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Lloyds, Wipro 6
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Investment Rationale… Sector: Consumer Durables Leading EMS solutions provider Dixon is a leading player in Flat Panel Display (FPD) TV with 50%+ market share, in LED Lighting it accounts for ~35%+ domestic volumes and commands 40%+ share in the Washing Machines EMS market. Proximity of manufacturing plants to OEM’s, end to end services including ODM solutions, cost efficient production along with reverse logistics has led to Dixon becoming a preferred EMS partner with strong client relationships Key customers include Panasonic, Philips Lighting India, Xiaomi, Samsung, Flipkart, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Lloyds, Haier, Reliance Retail, Wipro, Syska, Polycab and Bajaj Electricals Cost efficient manufacturing with lean working capital management Optimum utilisation of assets :Flexible manufacturing lines with standardised equipment used for diverse products has led Dixon to derive benefits of scale while remaining asset light leading to cost efficiencies Lean working capital : Dixon has maintained lean working capital despite increasing product offerings within segments and addition of new product segments due to efficient inventory management and favourable credit terms from suppliers New client addition along with capex and expenditure related to ramp up in capacities to led to stretching of working capital in FY19 Improved collections and efficient inventory management along with asset light nature of the business will allow Dixon to maintain lean working capital days going forward 7
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Higher growth opportunity led by strong domestic CEA market Sector: Consumer Durables Growth of Indian CEA market Indian CEA market to grow at faster pace Global demand for consumer electronics goods is set to grow FY21E due to: Innovative product offerings leading to faster replacement FY20E of consumer goods Adoption of smart technologies integrated into the product FY19 Proliferation of e-commerce The global consumer electronics market was valued at $ FY18 1,172 bn in 2017 as per Zion Market Research, is expected (Rs bn) to touch $1,787 bn by 2024 at CAGR of 6%. FY17 Global consumer electronics growth is expected to be driven by increasing demand from Smartphone, Television, DVD FY16 Players, Refrigerators, Washing Machines, Digital Cameras, and Hard Disk Drives FY15 Indian CEA market grew at CAGR of ~14% between FY13- FY19, is expected to grow faster at CAGR of 19% between FY14 FY19-21E, from Rs 4,178 bn in FY2019 to Rs 5,940 bn in FY2021E due to FY13 Increasing working population Early adoption of consumer goods 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Easy availability of finance Total CEA Market Consumer Electronics Appliances Source: Company, Axis Securities 8
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Indian EMS/ODM growth to outpace Global EMS/ODM growth Sector: Consumer Durables Global EMS/ODM Market by Value Indian EMS/ODM Market by Value 800 10.0 670 8.1 700 615 569 8.0 600 502 532 6.1 455 478 500 436 444 6.0 4.7 ($ bn) ($ bn) 400 3.8 4.0 3.0 300 2.2 1.6 1.9 200 2.0 1.4 100 0.0 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Global EMS/ODM market to grow at CAGR of 8.5% between OEM’s preference for strategic tie-up with EMS players like FY19-21E led by OEM’s focus on : Dixon to meet domestic demands will lead Indian EMS/ODM Differentiation via new product innovation market to grow at robust 32.4% during FY19-21E Brand building India’s EMS market is just 0.6% of the global EMS market and Marketing and distribution is expected to reach 1.6% by CY2021, aided by Global EMS market growth will be driven by higher electronics Rising per capita income and affluent middle class consumption by end user industries like IT & Telecom, Consumer Increasing nuclear families Enhanced features and availability of finance leading to early Electronics, Automotive, Healthcare and Industrial. adoption of consumer electronics Top categories that are expected to drive Indian EMS segment Make In India thrust are Mobile phones, Telecom, Consumer electronics and Subsidies and incentives by central/state governments Appliances Rationalisation of duties and taxes Dixon being the 2nd largest EMS company to benefit from robust growth in domestic EMS demand Source: Company, Axis Securities 9
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Enhancing capabilities through backward integration Sector: Consumer Durables Segment Backward Integration Advantage - Dixon Segments Key Products offerings Plastic moulding, Increased capacity will cater Home Appliances LED TV’s–19’’to 65’’& 4K2K technology, Home Theatres– 2.1& panels, control table, to 33% of the Indian Market Consumer Electronics ( Washing Machines) 4.1channel, FPD, Smart TVs twin tubs, Motors requirement, Value Addition Increased ODM share to Sheet metal, plastic LED Lights, Ballast, Tube lights, Batten, Down lighters, CFL/LED Lighting 90%, led to customer Lighting Products moulding and wound Drivers ( LED bulbs, battens ) additions, enabled providing components end to end solutions Became largest LED TV Mfg Home Appliances Semi-automatic washing machine ranging from 6.2kg to 8.2kg Backlight units, plastic in India, capacity can cater Consumer Electronics moulding, circuits, to 26% of Indian market Mobile Phones Feature & smart phones (2G, 3G, 4G/LTE, VoLTE & CDMA) (FPD TV's) LCM, SMT needs, Improvement in Margins Security Systems CCTV Cameras, DVRs Critical components that Mobile Phones Repair –mobile phones, LCD/LED TVs, LED panel, home theatre, PCB Manufacturing contributes to ~50% of the Reverse Logistics ( Feature & Smart phones) computer peripherals and other devices value addition in a phone Strategic product portfolio diversification CFL Lighting, Washing CCTV, Colour TV Reverse logistics Machines Digital Video Recorder 2017 1994 2007 2008 2010 2010 2016 LCD TV LED TV Mobile Phones 10
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Dixon’s manufacturing strength in key segments Sector: Consumer Durables Dixon manufactures majority of end product components Dixon is able to offer cost effective solutions due to: in-house : Backward Integrated manufacturing 60% of LED Lamps (components like Circuits & Plastic moulded parts) Flexible manufacturing lines used for diverse products with 50% of Washing Machines standardised equipment 32% of LED TV’s Economies of scale Availability of skilled man power Domestic Domestic/ Dixon Dixon Imported Imported/ Dixon Domestic 10% Imported 12% 12% Imported 10% 30% 10% 11% 5% Semi Automatic 30% LED Lamps LED TV 50% 9% Washing Machines 25% 56% 30% Circuit Plastics LED Others Circuit Plastics BLU LED Glass Others Plastic Parts Electronic motor Gear Box Timers Others 11
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Well diversified leading EMS player Sector: Consumer Durables Dixon’s market leadership in key segments Key EMS players and their offerings EMS Market Focus & Segment Companies Offerings Products Share Competence Consumer Electronics (FPD TV's) 50% + Global companies Lighting (LED Lights - volumes) 35%+ Home Appliances (Semi Automatic Washing Machines) 40%+ S/w Develop, Global & Indian Mobiles, Set top Jabil, product design, market - technical - Boxes, Telecom Foxconn, Flex , Level of diversification – Dixon vs. Peers Sanmina , Wistron prototyping, SMT, High Value add solutions, PC's, PCBA, logistics products Desktops Washing Lighting LED TVs Mobile Machine products Large Indian Companies Dixon Tech High High High Medium ELIN India - - Low - H/w design, S/w Mobile, Lighting NTL, SFO Techno., MEPL Low develop, assembly, Domestic market - Products, Medical ELIN , PG Group, prototyping & Value add products & Defence, DetlaLight - - Medium - Kaynes, Dixon testing WM,FPD TV’s Opetiemus - - - High NTL Small Indian Companies - - Medium - electronics Noble Low Medium - - SGS Tekniks, Local markets & LED Lighting , Sheet metal, plastic Amara Raja exports medical electronics, Videotex Medium - - - moulding, Electronics, Hical -Low value HUPS systems, transformers Tech products inverters Vimal Plast - Low - - Source: Company, Axis Securities Dixon’s leadership in key segments stems from integrated manufacturing capabilities across its business segments. 12
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Governmental thrust on Domestic Manufacturing Sector: Consumer Durables Make In India Ease of doing business - Aiding FDI Inflows *M-SIPS: capital subsidy of 20% in SEZ (25%-non SEZ areas) India is among the top 10 countries globally, showing Electronics manufacturing clusters: Financial assistance of up to improvement in World Bank’s ease of doing business index 50% and 75% of project cost for setting manufacturing clusters jumping 23 notches to 77th place in 2019 Preferential market access: government to prefer domestically manufactured products FDI inflows in electronics in India increased 2.3X in 2018-19 at Phased Manufacturing program: Government providing tax $ 451.9 mn vs.$196.9 mn in 2017-18 led by initiatives like reliefs and rationalisation of customs duty National Policy on Electronics - $400 bn turnover in domestic 100% FDI in Electronics Systems design & manufacturing sector - electronics manufacturing by CY2025 automatic route Promote EMS activities such as engineering and design of PCBs, PCB assembly 100% FDI In contract manufacturing -automatic route Led Lighting – lighting up manufacturing in India Rationalization of duties & taxes – a shot in the arm With energy saving as objective, under #SNLP over 85.67 lakh Cut in duty of Open Cell to 0% from 5% - to promote local street lights in 1400 cities across India have been replaced as manufacturing of LED TV’s of July 2019 – aim to replace 1.34 cr street lights Customs duty hike on Washing Machines (less than 10 kg) from Under ^UJALA scheme total 34.76 crore LEDs distributed to 10% to 20% will make domestic production competitive rural households through EESL –target of 77 cr LED lights to be distributed going forward Customs duty increase on CCTV cameras/DVR’s to 20% from Subsidies, incentives led to reduction in price of 9W led bulb to 15%, will promote local manufacturing and discourage imports ~Rs 70 vs Rs 160 thus prompting higher adoption aided by Reduction of Corporate Tax rate to 22% (15% for new units) power for all initiative of government Local production +demand generation+ attracting capital = Growing opportunities for Dixon *Modified Special Incentive Package Scheme(M-SIPS) ^ UJALA- Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All,#SLNP - Street Light National Programme 13
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Labour cost advantage to aid local manufacturing Sector: Consumer Durables India’s labour cost is among lowest in the world Indian manufacturing costs to moderate due to economies of 50 scale, government support (SLNP, Customs duty, Subsidies) 40.5 China’s salaries, since 2013 have risen between 21% to 41% in 38.0 its manufacturing hubs and expected to increase further due 40 worker’s preference for hi-tech jobs (USD/hr) 30 24.0 India is better placed to attract OEM’s as China’s cost to rise due 20.7 to withdrawal of subsidies, shift to higher level jobs and higher 20 rate of increase in labour costs 9.4 Low cost of production in India will incentivize brands to 10 3.3 1.7 manufacture locally/depend on domestic manufacturers 0 Dixon is well placed to cater to brands being an end-to-end cost efficient solutions provider in FPD TV’s, LED Lamps & Washing US Germany Japan S.Korea Taiwan China India Machines segment Labour and Overheads cost differentials favour manufacturing in India Increasing Average Manufacturing wages in China 20 19% 80000 16.5% 72,088 *LOH as % of total cost 15 13% 13% 60000 12.5% 64,452 12% (CNY/Year) 59,470 55,324 10 51,369 40000 46,431 41,650 36,665 5 30,700 20000 26,599 0 FY14 FY17 FY21E 0 India China 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Deloitte Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index 2016 ,National Bureau of Statistics China, Company , Axis Securities.,*LOH = Labour & Overheads 14
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Lower Penetration & Low localization –huge opportunity Sector: Consumer Durables Penetration of Consumer Durables Huge potential for higher penetration 100% 89% 85% Government’s thrust on Electricity For All is expected to provide an 80% 70% impetus for increasing demand in rural and semi-urban areas 60% 60% Easy availability of credit, increasing urbanisation, will lead to higher demand 40% 30% 25% TV industry in India is estimated to grow from Rs 660 bn in CY2017 to 17% 20% 20% 10% reach Rs 862 bn in CY2020 4% 0% Dixon has the largest TV manufacturing capacity in India at 36 lakh TV Washing FPD TV Room AC Air Cooler Refrigerator sets per anum Machine Large opportunity for EMS players like Dixon in under penetrated India Global segments like Washing Machines (60% scope) and FPD TV’s (~30% scope) Localization levels in appliances Increased scope for localization Washing Machine 65 Rising cost of imports (increased customs duties) to push brands to 35 increase their localization content to fulfil growing demand for consumer FPD TV 30 70 goods 90 Lower cost, end to end solutions, innovative product offerings, value Air Coolers 10 added aftermarket services to aid higher localization Residential ACs 65 Dixon better placed than peers to capitalize on growing localization 35 needs of customers due to Refrigetaor 70 30 Leading EMS manufacturer in three segments 0 20 40 60 80 100 Fungible manufacturing capabilities across segments Fully backward integrated facility Localisation levels in Appliances Import Strong R&D capabilities to offer innovative value added solutions Source: Company, Axis Securities 15
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Rising affluence - driver of increasing consumption Sector: Consumer Durables Increasing per capita income leading to higher discretionary spends Key Drivers of Demand 3500 65% of the consumer durables demand comes from first time 3000 buyers as per industry reports Rising affluent middle class population is estimated to form ~69% 3,023 2500 2,791 2,578 of total population by 2020 (In USD) 2,379 2000 2,199 2,036 1500 2,014 Changing lifestyle causing early adoption of white goods in young 1,762 1,640 1,610 1000 population, a strong demand generator 500 Increasing Per Capita Income in India leading to higher spends on 0 aspirational goods including consumer durables like FPD TV’s, CY 14 CY 15 CY 16 CY 17 CY 18 CY 19E CY 20E CY 21E CY 22E CY 23E Washing Machines and Mobile phones Source: IMF Wide spread affluence to drive consumer spending across India Elite and affluent households—will become the largest combined segment by 2025, accounting for 40% of consumption compared with 27% in 2016 The number of cities having greater than 40% elite and affluent households will increase to 48 in 2025 (vs. Nil in 2016) while cities having 21-40% elite and affluent households will increase to 270 in 2025 ( vs. 64 in 2016) Source: BCG Centre for Customer Insight 16
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Company Profile Sector: Consumer Durables Dixon Technologies started manufacturing operations in the year 1994 with production of colour TVs Has over the years evolved into fully integrated end-to-end product and solution provider to OEM’s ranging from global sourcing, manufacturing, quality testing and packaging to logistics Dehradun (4 Units) Diversified into 5 segments like LED TV, Smart TV, LED bulbs & Tube Noida (4 Units) lights, down lighters, Semi-Automatic Washing machines, Feature phones & Smart Phones, CCTV camera’s & DVR’s, with various offerings in each segment Dixon has 10 state of the art manufacturing facilities supported by 3 R&D centres (2 in India and 1 in China) that focus on value addition to its products Strategic location of plants: Near customer’s facility ensuring prompt response to clients manufacturing Tirupati (2 Units) requirements Manufacturing Units In proximity to Chennai & Krishnapatman ports - ability to cater to South East Head Office Asian markets through exports Having flexible and cost efficient manufacturing capabilities with availability of skilled and unskilled manpower Plant Location Products manufactured currently Year Estb Focus on making Tirupati a mother plant Noida-I LED bulbs, LED drivers, PCB assembly of Airconditionals 1996 Area 12 acres, 2 lakh sq feet construction space Noida-II Mobile phones 2016 Focus Product & Geographical expansion Noida-III Reverse logistics, LED Bulbs 2009 Benefits SGST exemption for 8 years (refund method) Noida-IV LED bulbs and parts 2009 Subsidies on land rent, electricity & water Proximity to Chennai port ( ~ 136 kms) Dehradun - I facility LED bulbs, Battens, T-LEDs, Down Lighter, Ballast, etc. 2007 Dehradun - II facility Semi -automatic washing machines 2010 Products LED TV’s; Dixon expanded capacity from 2.4 mn to 3.4 mn p.a CCTV’s capacity 6 lakh per month Backward integration of plastic parts,Sheet metal DVR’s capacity 1.5 lakh per month Dehradun - III facility 2009 components Dehradun -IV facility Washing Machines 2018 Planned Fully Automatic Washing Machine line with 5 lakh units annually Tirupati LED TVs; Security systems (CCTVs, DVRs) 2017 Expansion Source: Company, Axis Securities 17
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Management Team Sector: Consumer Durables ♦ Has more than 2 decades of experience in the EMS industry. He has held positions like chairman of the Sunil Vachani, Executive Chairman Electronics and Computer Software Export Promotion Council of India and Co-Chair of the CII ICTE Committee. He is currently the vice president of CEAMA Atul B. Lall, ♦ 26+ years of experience in the EMS industry; significant contribution to the overall growth of the Company Managing Director and successful completion of IPO, he is responsible for company’s overall business operations Saurabh Gupta, ♦ Over 17 years of experience in finance & strategy. He is associate of the ICAI & an MBA from MDI, Chief Financial Officer Gurgaon. Honored with Business World-Yes Bank most promising Future CFO in Large Corporate category Mr. Vineet Kumar Mishra, ♦ Over 22 years experience in the manufacturing industry; worked with Samsung India, Hotline Witties President - COO Lighting Electronics and Onida Savak ♦ Around 3 decades of experience in factory operations, manufacturing, supply chain, global sourcing, and Mr. Pankaj Sharma, business development. Has worked with Bestavision Electronics, Samsung, Jain Tube Company , Bigesto President - COO Mobile Phone Foods, Satkar Exports,Shirllon ♦ More than 30 years of experience in the field of plastics moulding. He has worked with Dipty Lal Judge Mr. Rajeev Lonial, Mal, Noble Moulds, Evershine Moulding, Ever Shine Plastic Industries, Essen Fabrication & Engineering and President COO Washing Machine Shree Krishna Keshav Lab ♦ He has a rich and extensive experience of 28+ years of across Manufacturing, Technology, Business Mr. Abhijit Kotnis, Development and sourcing fields. He was associated with Videocon Group for close to three decades in President COO Television various roles Source: Company, Axis Securities 18
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Key clients across various segments Sector: Consumer Durables Segments Key Clients Consumer Electronics Lighting Products Home Appliances Mobiles Security Systems 19
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Consumer Electronics Sector: Consumer Durables FPD TV market (mn units) EMS Opportunity in FPD TV 30 12.5 26.2 10.8 25 10.0 (mn Units) (mn Units) 20 17 7.5 15 5.0 4.2 10 5 5 2.5 0.1 0 0.0 FY13 FY18 FY21E FY13 FY18 FY21E Replacement demand, multiple TVs in household and upgradation to Consumer Electronics segment revenue growth new features is expected to drive FPD TV market growth at CAGR of 15.5% in volume terms and 14.3% CAGR in value terms between 1600 FY18-21E OEMs focus on marketing & rural penetration will lead the EMS/ODM 1,194 segment in consumer electronics industry to grow at a CAGR of 37% 1200 1,073 thus providing huge opportunity to Dixon 845 (Rs Cr) Dixon is the leader in FPD TV ODM segment with 50%+ share, while 776 770 800 698 the nearest competitor’s share stands at ~ 8% Further the contract with Xiaomi to manufacture TV’s is expected to drive revenues in the consumer electronics segment going forward. 400 We expect revenues to grow at 14% CAGR and stable margins between FY19-21E The key brands catered to by Dixon include Xiaomi, Panasonic, Marq, 0 Koryo, Lloyd, TCL, Philips etc. FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Source: Company, Axis Securities , LCM = Liquid Crystal Monitor , SMT= Surface Mount Technology 20
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Lighting Products Sector: Consumer Durables LED Lighting volume growth As per TechSci, the Lighting products market in India is expected to 1600 1482 grow at CAGR of 24.6% during CY2016- CY2022 touching $ 3.76 bn The demand for LED is expected to be driven by: Increasing adoption due energy savings & longer life of LED lighting vis- 1200 (mn Units) a-vis incandescent lighting Government initiatives like Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All (UJALA) 800 664 scheme, Street lighting National Program (SLNP) – for replacing old bulbs by LED lights 400 Higher adoption due to increasing affordability as EESL offers subsidy on LED lights to the end customer 67 The EMS/ODM segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 43.9% in 0 FY13 FY18 FY21E value terms thus providing huge opportunity to Dixon Dixon caters to major brands in the lighting segment viz Panasonic – Lighting Products segment revenue growth Anchor, Bajaj, Wipro, Syska, Usha, Polycab, Jaguar, C&S, RR Cables, Luminous 1000 919 Dixon’s capacity of 20 mn bulbs p.m can cater to ~54% of Indian 774 market requirement 800 Dixon is among the top 5 global manufacturers in terms of scale in LED Bulbs 600 551 (Rs Cr) Dixon caters to 90% of Philips lighting requirements –it is also planning 430 to increase the relationship and supply LED’s for exports 400 308 301 71% of Dixons revenues are on ODM basis vs. just 4% in FY14 200 Dixon witnessed margin improvement from 3.1% in FY17 to 7.18% in FY19 due to innovative product offering and increase in ODM share 0 We expect revenues to grow at 19%CAGR and margins the range of 7.2-7.3% between FY19-21E FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Source: Company, Axis Securities 21
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Home Appliances Sector: Consumer Durables Washing Machine market growth As per Frost & Sullivan Report semi-automatic washing machine 12 dominates the category with 56% volume market share 9.9 10 Dixon having dominant market share in EMS is better placed to cater to global brands which may not have semi-automatic washing machines (mn Units) 8 6.5 in their product portfolio 6 With a strategy to drive top-line and margin growth Dixon plans to 3.8 manufacture fully automatic washing machines adding to product 4 diversification 2 The key brands serviced by Dixon for semi-automatic washing machine 0 include Samsung, Panasonic, Godrej, Marq, Koryo, Thomson, Akai etc. FY13 FY18 FY21E Increasing product awareness, rising rural penetration (first time Home Appliances Revenues witnessed steady growth buyers), affordable pricing and availability of finance to drive washing machines market growth at a CAGR of 15.1% in volume terms to 9.9 400 374 mn units and 16.3% CAGR to Rs 163.7 bn in value terms between FY19-21E 300 More companies opting for outsourcing to cater to local market & 250 exports will lead to EMS/ODM segment growth at CAGR of 41% (Rs Cr) between FY19-21E 188 200 Dixon derives 100% revenues from Washing Machines on an ODM 131 basis and offers the largest bouquet of ODM models in WM segment 107 100 85 Dixon is the leader in Semi Automatic Washing Machine EMS market with ~42% share 0 We expect revenues to grow 13% CAGR with improvement in margins between FY19-21E FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Source: Company, Axis Securities 22
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Mobiles Sector: Consumer Durables Mobile Phone contribution in overall electronics production in India Increasing domestic production & declining imports of mobile sets 400 2,000 2014-15 2018-19 300 1,500 (Mn units) Contribution 9.93% 37.12% (Rs bn) 200 1,000 Number of Mobile Assembly Plants 2 270 100 500 0 0 PMP by the government revived mobile phone manufacturing after shut 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 down of Nokia plant in 2014 Imports ( In mn units) Production (In mn units) Domestic production of mobile phones increased 5x volume wise and Imports (Rs bn) Domestic Production (Rs bn) ~9.6x value wise between 2015-2019 while Imports declined from 216 mn units to just 20 mn India is currently the 2nd largest smart phone handset manufacturing Mobile Phones segment revenues to recover country after China 1000 811 Smart phone users to double in India (829 mn by 2022) and feature 800 phone sales to reach 1bn globally, with higher demand from India 670 presents huge opportunity for players like Dixon 600 (Rs Cr) Dixon’s acquisition of balance 50% in Padget Technologies(JV partner) 400 355 along with backward integration in mobile PCB’s will enable it to cater to growing opportunity 200 We expect mobile segment revenues to grow at 32% CAGR during 20 FY19-21E led by recovery in the segment and acquisition of new 0 clients FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Source: Company, Axis Securities, PMP = Phase Manufacturing Program 23
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Security Systems (CCTV & DVRs) Sector: Consumer Durables As per I.H.S market study the organized market for surveillance Key Demand Drivers equipment was ~Rs 3500 cr in CY2017 and expected to touch Rs 5,000cr – Rs 6000 cr in CY2020 led by increasing use of Increasing safety & surveillance measures being adopted by: surveillance technologies in prevention and detection of theft & crime Government Dixon entered security cameras and surveillance systems segment in Corporations FY2018 as JV manufacturer with Aditya Infotech Educational Institutes Aditya Infotech owns CP Plus cameras and is also a distributor for Chinese brand Dahua Technology (largest surveillance brands Residential associations & individuals globally) Declining prices of electronic security systems Dixon’s Security Systems segment witnessed robust growth during FY18-19 and is expected to witness strong growth with improved Installation of surveillance by governments at public places margins Security Systems segment witnessed robust revenue growth Market for surveillance equipment 8000 120 112 6000 6000 80 3500 (Rs Cr) (Rs Cr) 4000 49 40 2000 0 0 2017 2020 FY18 FY19 Source: ICEA, Axis Securities 24
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Reverse Logistics – maintaining customer stickiness Sector: Consumer Durables Reverse Logistics segment accounted for ~1% of revenues in FY19 OEMs prefer EMS players with end to end solutions including reverse logistics for after sales services , repairs & refurbishment Reverse Logistics is an important end-customer support function Dixon provides B2B reverse logistics for Set Top Boxes, Mobile Phones and LED TV panel, CCTVs through 17 service centres spread across different states in India Reverse logistics is supported by R&D team giving the company an advantage for repairs & refurbishment of Mobile phones, LED TV’s and products like STB’s and Computer peripherals unlike competition Return rates of Mobiles (9%), FPD TV (8%), washing machines (8%), STB’s (16%), will lead to growth of the reverse logistics with increasing sales of these products Reverse Logistics Market Share of products in Reverse logistics Market 70 30 60 25 (Vol mn units) 50 34.1 30.4 20 40 27.4 16.1 13.6 (Rs bn) 25.4 15 30 23.9 11.3 10 20 10 9.4 17.6 19.1 7.9 7.9 10 5 2.9 3.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 0.9 1.4 0 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Computer Peripherals WM FPD TV Set Top Boxes Mobile Phones Computer Peripherals WM FPD TV Set Top Boxes Mobile Phones Source: Company, Axis Securities 25
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies SWOT Analysis Sector: Consumer Durables Strength Opportunities An EMS supplier with leadership in Low penetration of consumer 3 fast growing segments durables in India Strong & sticky customer Increasing localization due to Make relationships in India, inherent cost advantage Economies of Scale Opportunities Increasing demand for EMS Cost efficiencies due to backward services integration Strategy of growing ODM revenues Strong R&D capabilities, developed 20+ ODM solutions SWOT Strength Weaknesses Threats Threats Weaknesses Brands resorting to in house production Client concentration, dependence on anchor customers Increase in competition Relatively lower bargaining power Higher imports by OEMs in OEM business Source: Company, Axis Securities 26
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Robust growth in key segments to drive profitability Sector: Consumer Durables Segment wise revenue Break-up Segment wise EBITDA contribution 4,754 5,000 300 3,868 4,000 227 2,890 2,984 200 181 3,000 2,457 135 (Rs bn) (Rs bn) 91 112 2,000 100 1,000 0 0 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E -100 Consumer Electronics Lighting Products Home Appliances Consumer Electronics Lighting Products Home Appliances Mobile Phones Reverse Logistics Security Systems Mobile Phones Reverse Logistics Security Systems Segment wise Margins Key segments viz Consumer Electronics(40% FY19 revenues), Lighting 25.0 (31% FY19 revenues) and Home Appliances (13% FY19 revenues) to 20.0 continue contributing to top-line growth going forward 15.0 Operating efficiencies along with backward integration will lead to 10.0 higher contribution of operating profits by key segments (%) 5.0 0.0 We expect increasing contribution to top-line from mobile segment led by -5.0 growth recovery aided by cost effective backward integration -10.0 Security systems is expected to grow faster (on a low base) with FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E increasing revenue share and improved margins Consumer Electronics Lighting Products Home Appliances Mobile Phones Reverse logistics, a strategic offering to maintain stickiness of OEMs, is expected to return to positive EBITDA with improved margins Reverse Logistics Security Systems 27
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Higher margin on increasing ODM support robust revenue growth Sector: Consumer Durables Healthy top line growth Strong growth in EBITDA 5,000 4,754 250 4.8 6.0 3,868 4.5 4.7 4,000 200 4.2 3.9 3.7 2,853 2,984 4.0 3,000 2,499 150 2.6 181 227 2.5 2.3 2,000 1,410 100 135 1,119 1,220 112 2.0 816 91 1,000 50 59 20 26 32 0 0 0.0 FY16 FY18 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY17 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Net Sales ( Rs Cr) EBITDA ( Rs cr) EBITDA (%) Increasing ODM share in revenues aid margin expansion… We expect top line to grow at a CAGR of 26 % between FY19-21E, on strong growth in key segments Consumer Electronics, Lighting and Home 100 Appliances and new client additions across segments backed by rising 80 wallet share with existing customers 62 Additionally, we expect mobile segment to return to growth path, with (%) 60 78 73 77 85 top-line CAGR of ~32% between FY19-21E led by company’s efforts to 40 add new popular clients Security Systems segment to post robust growth going forward 20 38 22 27 23 contributing ~7% of top-line from current ~3.8% led by growing 15 0 demand for surveillance equipments FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 We expect EBITDA margins to improve driven by higher cost efficiencies ODM Revenue Share OEM Revenue Share and growing share of ODM revenues Source: Company, Axis Securities 28
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Astute working capital management with superior returns profile Sector: Consumer Durables PAT to grow at CAGR of 42.8% Lean working Capital days 150 129 25 98 20 20 19 18 100 61 63 14 13 15 43 47 10 10 10 50 10 7 14 12 5 5 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E PAT (Rs Cr) Improving return ratios superior earnings trajectory New Client addition led to stretching of working capital in FY19 which 50.0 is expected to improve going forward 40.0 Improved collections and efficient inventory management along with asset light nature of the business will allow Dixon to maintain lean 30.0 working capital days going forward The recent government announcement of reduction in corporate tax 20.0 rate is expected to bring down effective tax rate positively impacting 10.0 EPS & Bottom line by ~9%. With superior earnings growth led by strong order book and focus on 0.0 acquiring new clients we expect Dixon to report strong revenue FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E growth. We expect PAT to grow at CAGR of ~42.8% between FY19-FY21E RoE (%) Core RoCE (%) Source: Company, Axis Securities 29
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Valuations Sector: Consumer Durables P/E band Valuation 6000 We estimate Dixon Technologies to post topline CAGR of 26% and bottom-line CAGR of 42.8% over FY19-FY21E 4000 We expect EBITDA margins to improve from 4.5% in FY19 to 2000 4.8% in FY21E due to operating leverage 0 ROE is estimated to increase to 24% in FY21E from 18.2% in FY19, while Core ROCE is expected to increase to 30.4% from Mar-18 Mar-19 Jul-18 Jul-19 Sep-17 Nov-17 Sep-18 Jan-18 May-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-19 27.3% in FY19 driven by improved business performance Price 5x 10x 15x 20x We value Dixon Technologies at 32x FY21E EPS as we expect it to report Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 26%/30%/42.8% 12mth fwd P/E (x) respectively over FY19-21E and thus arrive at a price target of 100 Rs 3,649 ( 21% Upside) 80 60 Risk Factors 40 20 Volatility in raw material prices Competition from domestic and overseas players 0 Forex volatility Mar-18 Mar-19 Sep-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Nov-17 Sep-18 Nov-18 Sep-19 Jan-18 Jan-19 May-18 May-19 Customers resorting to higher in-house manufacturing PE Mean Mean+1Stdev Mean-1Stdev Change in government policies Source: Company, Axis Securities 30
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Financials (Consolidated) Sector: Consumer Durables Profit & Loss (Rs Cr) Balance Sheet (Rs Cr) Y/E March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Y/E March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Net sales 2,853 2,984 3,868 4,754 Other operating income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total assets 363 535 616 731 Total income 2,853 2,984 3,868 4,754 Net Block 179 241 264 293 Cost of goods sold 2,741 2,850 3,687 4,526 CWIP 12.8 18.8 30.0 32.5 Contribution (%) 3.9% 4.5% 4.68% 4.78% Investments 17.2 9.7 9.7 9.7 Advt/Sales/Distrn O/H 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Wkg. cap. (excl cash) 110 229 256 275 Operating Profit 112 135 181 227 Cash / Bank balance 44.1 36.7 56.6 120.6 Other income 4 6 5 7 Misc. Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIDT 116 141 186 234 Depreciation 15 22 26 34 Interest & Fin Chg. 13 25 26 24 Capital employed 363 535 616 731 E/o income / (Expense) 0 0 0 0 Equity capital 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 Pre-tax profit 88 94 134 177 Tax provision 27 30 36 48 Reserves 304 367 462 589 PAT befor Comprehensive Income 61 63 98 129 Pref. Share Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (-) Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 Minority Interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Associates 0 0 0 0 Other Comprehensive Income (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 0.0 Borrowings 44 141 136 123 Adjusted PAT 60.8 63.3 98.0 129.1 Reported PAT 61 63 98 129 Def tax Liabilities 4.1 16.0 6.7 7.9 Source: Company, Axis Securities 31
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Financials (Consolidated) Sector: Consumer Durables Cash Flow (Rs Cr) Ratio Analysis (%) Y/E March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Y/E March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Sales growth 14.2 4.6 29.6 22.9 Sources 83 96 117 158 Cash profit 89 110 150 186 OPM 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.8 Oper. profit growth 22.8 20.4 34.2 25.5 (-) Dividends 0 3 3 3 COGS / Net sales 96.1 95.5 95.3 95.2 Retained earnings 89 107 147 184 Overheads/Net sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Depreciation / G. block 7.4 7.5 7.6 8.4 Issue of equity 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in Oth. Reserves 55.9 2.7 0.0 0.0 Net wkg.cap / Net sales 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.07 Net sales / Gr block (x) 13.9 10.3 11.5 11.9 Borrowings (2) (2) 5 (3) Others (60) (12) (36) (22) Core RoCE 34.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 Debt / equity (x) 0.13 0.36 0.28 0.20 Effective tax rate 31.0 32.5 27.0 27.0 Applications 83 96 117 158 RoE 23.7 18.2 22.9 24.0 Payout ratio (Div/NP) 0.0 4.3 2.7 2.1 Capital expenditure 4.5 94.6 60.0 65.0 Investments 28.3 (11.0) 0.0 0.0 EPS (Rs.) 54.8 55.9 86.6 114.0 EPS Growth 26.5 2.1 54.7 31.7 Net current assets 21.5 20.0 36.8 29.3 CEPS (Rs.) 67.1 75.0 109.2 143.7 Change in cash 28.8 (7.4) 19.9 64.0 DPS (Rs.) 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Source: Company, Axis Securities 32
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Disclaimer Sector: Consumer Durables Disclosures: The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations). 1. Axis Securities Ltd. (ASL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000297. ASL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. ASL is a subsidiary company of Axis Bank Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd. is a listed public company and one of India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of Asset management, NBFC, Merchant Banking, Trusteeship, Venture Capital, Stock Broking, the details in respect of which are available on www.axisbank.com. 2. ASL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for its stock broking & Depository participant business activities and with the Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and also registered with IRDA as a corporate agent for insurance business activity. 3. ASL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. 4. I/We, Hiren Trivedi– CM, Research, MBA (Finance) author/s and the name/s subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my/our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. I/We (Research Analyst) also certify that no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. I/we or my/our relative or ASL does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also I/we or my/our relative or ASL or its Associates may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Since associates of ASL are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. I/we or my/our relative or ASL or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. I/we have not served as director / officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12-month period. Any holding in stock – No 5. ASL has not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. ASL has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. 6. In the last 12-month period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report, ASL or any of its associates may have: i. Received compensation for investment banking, merchant banking or stock broking services or for any other services from the subject company of this research report and / or; ii. Managed or co-managed public offering of the securities from the subject company of this research report and / or; iii. Received compensation for products or services other than investment banking, merchant banking or stock broking services from the subject company of this research report; ASL or any of its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the subject company of this research report or any other third-party in connection with this report. Term& Conditions: This report has been prepared by ASL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ASL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ASL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Instead of a company visit, we have done a conference call with the company’s management. 33
16 OCT 2019 Company Report Dixon Technologies Disclaimer Sector: Consumer Durables Disclaimer: Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to the recipient’s specific circumstances. The securities and strategies discussed and opinions expressed, if any, in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This report may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. 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