DESIGN FORECAST 2022 - Southsource
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Everything we do is guided by our mission: To create a better world through the power of design. Atlantic Park, Virginia Beach, Va. On the cover: Willis Tower, Chicago 2
DESIGN FORECAST 2022 Despite ongoing challenges, an enduring resilience is defining the built environment. After almost two years of pandemic-infused stops that promote wellness, buildings that have and starts, we’re seeing you, our clients, usher in a low-carbon footprints, and connected communities new era with a new kind of resilience. We’re witnessing that embrace inclusivity for everyone. optimistic investments and plans to define the future of buildings and places with projects that respond Holistic design for the human experience to the new way that people work and live and that The most valued places prioritize the human reflect the most influential issues we’re facing today experience, which is why human experience in climate change, inclusion, and community. This design is such a powerful opportunity for you and optimism is happening in spite of the pandemic, not your communities. By taking a holistic approach because we’ve gotten past it. to design, Gensler is creating places that feel inclusive, healthy, and purposeful — places that Innovation is accelerating honor local context, while considering the health The challenges you face remain significant. Across of occupants and planet alike. industries and time zones, companies like yours are feeling the pinch of supply chain woes and labor This year’s Design Forecast focuses on design shortages. Climate change and its economic fallout strategies that will define the future of the human have become a constant threat. Issues of equity experience for the coming years. You’ll find and inclusion remain top of mind. strategic advice, research, data, and projects from all 28 of Gensler’s practice areas. We hope the And yet, there’s reason to be hopeful. The past two trends in this publication will help you prepare years have shown how tough times can accelerate for a new era of human experience. innovation. New tools, techniques, and research have been able to bring people back together in purposeful, inclusive, and resilient spaces. Experience is the key to reinvigorating physical spaces — especially the workplace — and if you’re looking to bring people DIANE HOSKINS ANDY COHEN back to the office or any physical space, you must FAIA, IIDA | Co-CEO FAIA | Co-CEO create destinations rather than obligations. People are looking for twice the experience as before. Shaping the future of cities Likewise, cities must also look at the challenges they face through the lens of human experience. To position themselves as places where people want to live, cities must create convenient and walkable 20-minute neighborhoods, healthy green spaces 4 5
DESIGN FORECAST 2022 A NEW ERA OF HUMAN EXPERIENCE The resiliency and innovation we’ve witnessed across industries has given us a roadmap for how to move forward. AT&T Discovery District, Dallas 6 7
We’re setting a In the past two years, the world has faced generational We’re not in the clear yet. Global instability, climate change, and challenges. Lives have been changed, and that change is social inequity remain difficult challenges, while the longer impacts here to stay. And yet, optimism is in the air. of COVID — supply chain issues, labor shortages, and inflation — new stage for how Design has offered innovative solutions to many of the challenges are driving competition as the world learns to live with some form of the virus for the foreseeable future. we live now. we’ve been facing, and the resiliency and innovation we’ve witnessed across industries has given us a roadmap for how to move forward. Our resourcefulness is slowly, but surely lifting the heavy veil of While we are being confronted with tough new realities, we see a bright future ahead. It’s a future where human experience is defined the pandemic. through the power design in the spaces we frequent, the communities in which we live together, and the air we breathe. Real estate is the stage on which life is lived, and because of that, its value is directly tied to how we experience the spaces where we live, work, and play. The path forward is the one designed with people at the center. Riverfront Jacksonville Master Plan, Jacksonville, Fla. 8 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | A NEW ERA OF HUMAN EXPERIENCE 9
3 The impacts of DESIGNING A MORE RESILIENT SUPPLY CHAIN ECOSYSTEM THE CRITICAL ROLE OF THE OFFICE FOR TALENT RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION COVID continue We are taking action to improve the long-term resilience and sustainability of the building industry supply chain. Organizations of all kinds are seeing large amounts of turnover in their staff. According to a survey by PwC of to disrupt the Across industries and time zones, our clients are facing delays and 1,000 U.S. workers, some 65% are looking for a new job. Competition for talent is at an all-time high, and until global supply chain bottlenecks in the shipping of construction materials and furnishings companies can fully staff up, they remain in limbo. for their properties. This is resulting in construction delays and ballooning costs. At Gensler, we are taking action to improve the We see design playing a significant role in attracting and retaining top and transform the long-term resilience and sustainability of the building industry supply talent. In a time of increased hybrid and flexible work schedules, the X chain by developing a new blueprint for specifying quality, low-carbon physical workplace remains a critical asset. This is where companies can workplace. products. These new “green specifications” prioritize materials that support and improve the health, happiness, productivity, and overall reduce construction-related emissions, and promote locally extracted well-being of employees. In our 2021 U.S. Workplace Survey, Gensler and manufactured materials. This initiative will help businesses avoid researchers found that employees at top-performing companies in the the fallout of unexpected bottlenecks by creating new systems U.S. consider their organization’s workplace to be the best place for With the pandemic entering its third year, we’re that help to ensure the long-term health of our clients’ portfolios with a wide range of activities. In fact, top-performing companies are three beginning to see new impacts of the virus, including properties that already meet emerging safety, health, compliance, times as likely to increase their real estate footprint in the coming years. Top-performing companies are supply chain issues, labor shortages, and inflation — sustainability, and insurance requirements. By reimagining the office as a destination rather than an obligation, three times as likely to increase their all of which are driving competition for materials, and by creating a space that embodies company values and culture, real estate footprint. talent, and resources like never before. companies can attract new hires while inviting existing team members back into an environment that truly prioritizes the human experience. Source: Gensler U.S. Workplace Survey 2021 Organon, Jersey City, N.J. In the war for talent, the workplace must appeal to new and existing employees as a destination rather than an obligation. Gensler designed Organon’s activity- based-workplace with a variety of settings and features to support employee needs, choice, and flexibility during COVID. 10 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | A NEW ERA OF HUMAN EXPERIENCE 11
Never has there been a Extreme weather events — including heat waves, droughts, and floods — are now commonplace, and the grave impact of climate change will continue to have To become carbon neutral, we need greater opportunity for the a profound impact on human life. to eliminate or offset building industry to act For those of us in the real estate sector, rising sea levels and extreme weather events are also putting property portfolios at risk. Even so, many in the industry have yet to admit that buildings are as responsible for the impact of both operating and on climate change. carbon as cars. embodied carbon. The Gensler Cities Climate Challenge (GC3) is our commitment to achieving carbon neutrality in all our work within a decade. It is also 39% a rallying cry to our industry, our clients, and our colleagues. Constructing and operating buildings The real estate industry makes up 39% of global carbon emissions accounts for nearly when accounting for construction and building performance. Most carbon 40% of global reduction efforts in the building sector have focused on operational carbon emissions. efficiency, but we can no longer ignore that building materials account for half of a building’s total lifetime carbon footprint. To become carbon neutral, we need to eliminate or offset the impact of both operating and embodied energy. 28% 11% Building Building Materials & Operations Construction Source: Architecture 2030 The Old Post Office, Chicago (rooftop) Adapting and reusing existing buildings is a critical step on the path a net zero future. Chicago’s Old Post Office, designed by Gensler and Hoerr Schaudt Landscape Architects, is the largest adaptive reuse project in the U.S. By reusing the existing structure and materials, we saved 87% of construction waste from the landfill. 12 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | A NEW ERA OF HUMAN EXPERIENCE 13
The challenges cities face now are not new, but they have taken on new sense of clarity and urgency because of the context in which we face them. 49 % Only 49% of people feel optimistic about their city’s future. Source: Gensler City Pulse Survey Fall 2021 Design will be the instrument of change in our cities and spaces. We believe that design has the power to transform lives. The challenges we face now are not new, but they have taken on new sense of clarity and urgency because of the context in which we face them. Over half the world’s population now lives in cities. This massive shift will continue, so that by 2050 almost 70% of people will live in major urban centers around the world. This influx, combined with the impacts of COVID, climate change, and issues around social equity, have led to new scrutiny of urban life. According to the Gensler Research Institute’s City Pulse Survey, less than half of the people we surveyed in 15 locations felt optimistic about their city’s future. To position themselves as places where people want to live, cities must embrace design as a way to create better experiences. Only then will we be able to create convenient and walkable 20-minute neighborhoods, healthy green spaces that promote wellness, buildings that have low- carbon footprints, and connected communities that embrace inclusivity for everyone. Design is unique in its ability to address changing expectations and tackle the toughest challenges facing cities. We know we can make a difference. Fifth + Broadway, Nashville, Tenn. As we help our clients address climate change, social equity, supply chain issues, and labor shortages, we have to be smarter and more purposeful This entertainment district in the rising city of Nashville addresses some of what than ever before, and laser-focused on the human experience. people want from their cities: convenience, community, and accessibility. Fifth + Broadway weaves together a mixed-use ecosystem of workplace, residential, sports and music venues, restaurants, and retail. 14 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | A NEW ERA OF HUMAN EXPERIENCE 15
DESIGN FORECAST 2022 SECTION PAGES 16-39 40-101 102–149 150–175 SECTORS 1 2 3 4 CITIES WORK LIFE HEALTH PRACTICE AREAS STYLE AVIATION CONSUMER GOODS BRAND DESIGN HEALTHCARE CITIES & URBAN DESIGN ENERGY CULTURE & MUSEUMS SCIENCES CRITICAL FACILITIES FINANCIAL SERVICES DIGITAL EXPERIENCE DESIGN SENIOR LIVING EDUCATION F O U N D A T I O N S, A S S O C I A T I O N S & O R G A N I Z A T I O N S HOSPITALITY WELLNESS GOVERNMENT & DEFENSE MIXED USE & RETAIL CENTERS MEDIA RESIDENTIAL O F F I C E B U I L D I N GS : D E V E L O P E R RETAIL O F F I C E B U I L D I N GS : R E P O S I T I O N I N G SPORTS PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT PROFESSIONAL SERVICES REAL ESTATE & CONSULTING TECHNOLOGY 16 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | TABLE OF CONTENTS 17
DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | CITIES THE FUTURE OF CITIES ENHANCING THE URBAN EXPERIENCE Great neighborhoods, employment opportunities, affordability, and multimodal transportation are the foundations of a great city. But cities have their work cut out for them. The lasting impacts of COVID, and the health scare that came with the virus, have led people to question urban living. To position themselves as places where people want to live, cities must embrace design as a way to create better experiences. Health and wellness will continue to be a priority. To attract talent, cities and urban developers must focus on affordability and racial and socioeconomic disparities. Concepts like the 20-minute neighborhood will continue to gain traction, as will new more-accessible modes of transportation. Finally, as the effects of climate change cause larger and more- damaging weather events, investments in weather mitigation strategies and sustainable building practices will continue to reshape the urban experience for the better. AV I AT I O N CI T IES & U R BA N D ES IG N CR I T ICAL FACIL I T IES E D U C AT I O N 16 17
DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | CITIES 01 02 03 A FLEXIBLE PUBLIC REALM 20-MINUTE NEIGHBORHOODS CLIMATE ACTION DEMANDS WILL DELIVER A MORE WILL DRIVE EQUITY WILL ADVANCE THE PATH RESILIENT FUTURE TO NET ZERO For the 20-minute neighborhood to Cities have an opportunity to take be applied through a lens of equity, In the face of pressure to reduce the positive parts of our urban investment strategies from both the their carbon footprint, airports, pandemic experience — open streets, public and private sector need to academic campuses, and data centers outdoor dining, fewer cars — and be put in place. This investment will will continue to embrace new bring them forward to create a more attract development to these neigh- carbon-neutral and sustainability resilient future with people at borhoods in ways that residents can goals that will allow them to set the center. benefit from and participate in. industry standards. 04 05 CITIES AND ORGANIZATIONS INNOVATION DISTRICTS WILL FOCUS ON REGENERATION WILL CONTINUE TO THRIVE AND REUSE Campus planning used to be To respond to climate change, inward focused; now, institutions cities and organizations must strive are looking at how they interact to create sustainable, regenerative with surrounding communities. environments that make more To spur innovation and create new efficient use of existing spaces and synergies, developments have materials, thereby reducing waste expanded from single-use facilities and carbon emissions. to mixed-use ecosystems. Here are five key metatrends impacting the cities sector, and how design is responding: Confidential Mixed-Use District previous page: Block 7, Abu Dhabi 18 19
AVIATION B OVERVIEW The aviation industry has been grappling with uncertainty, but it has invested in changes that will further transform the passenger experience. In the coming years, airports will continue to invest in core infrastructure, new technologies, resilience strategies, and “front door” experiences. These public-facing spaces in and around airports can generate new revenue sources and serve as their own destinations, much like town centers. A TRENDS 01 02 03 C Airports are focused on a carbon-neutral footprint Airports will become more like town centers to Growth opportunities for airports are through for the future. generate new sources of revenue. more efficient use of existing space, rather than adding capacity. Social awareness on climate change will push airports to aggressively The idea of diversified revenue generation is moving toward the front push for responsible solutions. This extends well beyond LEED door of the airport, with airports considering how their landside spaces Airports are not feeling the need to add gates to increase capacity. certification. Airport facilities will look to wind, geothermal, and solar can encourage non-travelers to come to the airport. This includes using Rather, the trend is to increase capacity by looking holistically power to not only reduce carbon emissions, but to create self-sustaining adjacent land to create public space, such as public parks, mixed-use at a better passenger experience in the terminal. While that may facilities that do not rely on the grid for power. New carbon-neutral facilities, or amphitheaters. This is the concept of airports as town mean growing holdroom areas, it can also involve the better use and sustainability goals will allow airports to set industry standards. centers, and it’s gaining momentum and will become the norm. of space by using technology to give confidence that passengers will smoothly get from landside to airside. FEATURED PROJECTS A.Clay Lacy Aviation, B. Toronto Pearson International Airport B. JAL Check-in Area, Costa Mesa, Calif. Terminal 1 Redevelopment & Expansion Programme, Haneda Airport, Tokyo Mississauga, Canada 20 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | CITIES | AVIATION 21
D 04 E 05 To support future growth, airports will invest The new focus for airports will be in core infrastructure. for on-the-ground experiences. Airports will invest heavily in the core infrastructure within the terminals, “The airport will no longer be solely a place In lieu of using available funds on building such as upgraded electrical and information technology (IT) to support for coming and going, but a community new airspace and gate capacity, airports future growth. This is important as the industry shifts to a completely will focus on the ground experience, such as touchless process that includes biometric technologies to help speed hub where people come to interact and additional transit systems. Rail can be a up the check-in, screening, and customs processes. Local laws will gather — a new town square in the connectivity point, with public transit systems require terminals to self-generate certain amounts of power. As part heart of the airport.” designed to address door-to-door mobility of its Terminal Modernization Program, Pittsburgh International Airport from home to the airport. Integrating those has established a first-of-its-kind on-site microgrid using solar and — Dialogue Blog by Tim Hudson, “Reimagining the Airport as different modes into a single location and natural gas to fully power the airport terminals, airfield, and the New Town Square” providing smooth connections between them additional buildings. will drive a better passenger experience. FEATURED PROJECTS D. San Francisco International Airport E. JFK Terminal 1 T1 Expansion, San Francisco Redevelopment, New York 22 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | CITIES | AVIATION 23
4 S TR AT E G IES & R E S E A R C H More than half of passengers say queuing at 28% Queueing at boarding has to Border Control & Immigration improve. San Francisco International Airport T1 Expansion, San Francisco Source: Schengen Visa 41 % Strategies for cities and airports Queueing at Boarding to revitalize their facilities in a post-pandemic world 31% Queueing at Security Screening The way people think about travel is changing. At the same time, people are reexamining their 1 2 Passengers’ responses on immediate areas to improve for reducing relationships with their cities. This presents ANCHOR DESIGN IN MAXIMIZE THE BUILDING, queueing at airports an opportunity to rethink how people want to LOCAL CONTEXT NOT THE PASSENGER OR travel in the future. AIRCRAFT COUNT The degradation of airports is typically caused Here are four strategies we’ve developed by the inability to provide basic passenger Most existing airports are constrained for that cities and airports can use to revitalize needs. The opportunity to build a new facility space, particularly on the airside. Elimination Domestic travel demand is on the rise. Passenger revenue in 2022 is expected their facilities in the post pandemic world: or reimagine a terminal may only happen once of a gate could change the space allocated to jump about 67% year-on-year to in a generation, so design anchored in the city within the terminal. Layer in a more efficient Source: Reuters context is critical to long-term relevancy. Cities gate utilization system with quicker aircraft $378 billion. 93 should reimagine airports as modern gateways, turns. This way, the loss of gate capacity could Source: IATA connecting people and building resiliency. be overcome via technology, instead of space, while maximizing passenger comfort. 3 4 EXPERIMENT, TEST, REIMAGINE THE AIRPORT % AND LEARN AS A DESTINATION Spaces within a terminal are typically assigned Instead of trying to move guests away quickly, and rented based on a long-term lease agree- airports can bring the city closer to the 378 ment. Rethinking that lease strategy will allow airport. The airport becomes less about airline for experimentation. Airports could begin to think like modern tech companies where branding and more reflective of the community fabric and regional tourism. The incorporation Domestic travel demand is estimated to reach 93% $ BIL physical space becomes malleable to meet of regional materials, local makers, local chefs, of the pre-pandemic level in 2022 — an improvement operational needs and stay ahead of trends, and live entertainment make the airport of 20 percentage points from 2021. instead of being reactionary. a vibrant destination in itself. 24 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | CITIES | AVIATION 25
B CITIES & OVERVIEW Cities are at an inflection point. As concerns about URBAN DESIGN global health continue and remote work trends take hold, people are beginning to question the need to live in big cities, especially as urban centers struggle with issues of affordability, low levels of transit ridership, overcrowding, and more. Cities can use this moment to imagine a new community-focused model for growth, one that is more convenient, inclusive, resilient, and healthy. TRENDS A 01 03 More cities will think regeneratively Equity and accessibility will to combat climate change. continue to define the 20-minute neighborhood. To address climate change, pollution, and natural resource depletion, a more regenerative, The 20-minute neighborhood concept resilient approach is required to planning and is a tool to create social cohesions and developing cities. Urban centers with circular strengthen sense of community, so equity metabolisms, or “circular cities,” minimize is a critical part of the conversation. sprawl, repurpose waste, and increase bio- Equitable transportation, housing, employ- diversity. Green infrastructure and natural ment, and technology infrastructure are resource conservation are critical strategies. key parts to well-rounded neighborhoods. The engineered urban environment should Investing in accessible and affordable be in balance with the carrying capacity high-speed internet as a public utility of natural systems. is critical. 04 02 Investing in parks and flexible To reimagine downtown streets can create healthier cities. cores, cities will need to adopt a mixed-use mindset. Designers and urbanists will continue to prioritize pedestrian-oriented urban spaces The trend away from single-use Central over car-centric developments, which means Business Districts (CBDs) into places with a outdoor spaces will be a key ingredient. greater mix of uses will continue. Diversity Access to nature through landscaped public in building types and uses, and diversity at plazas, green spaces, sidewalks, and urban many different levels (city, neighborhood, parks increases health benefits and creates building) are key. For example, more residential community by reducing stress and depres- and pedestrian-oriented uses with more sion, promoting positive emotions, and green space can be infused into CBDs to make facilitating cognitive functioning. Privately them more inclusive, resilient, sustainable, owned public spaces (POPs) that connect and healthy. Cities should also adopt mixed- to the public realm also help in creating income and multigenerational communities these healthy places. to become more diverse and inclusive. “Because remote workers can now go pretty much anywhere, cities are going to have to start focusing on attracting residents, particularly millennials, and that means providing that smaller city experience, and not just focusing on attracting businesses.” FEATURED PROJECTS — Sofia Song, Global Cities Lead, Gensler A. Confidential B. Al Bustan, Madinah, Mixed-Use District Saudi Arabia 26 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | CITIES | CITIES & URBAN DESIGN 27
05 D Rising cities will provide compelling alternatives. Rising cities are booming as people seeking more value and space look to relocate from large cities to more affordable, less dense places. To be a compelling alternative, a rising city should build arts and culture, look for ways to create more equity and diversity, and celebrate its local DNA in new developments. C 06 Mobility’s next phase will advance our cities. From e-scooters to e-bikes, improvements in vehicles powered by an electric motor and battery are transforming first- and last-mile mobility. Beyond the benefits for tackling climate change, the shift to electrification has even broader implications for how we might reimagine our urban environments and city streets. For example, gas stations and parking garages could be repurposed for new uses that promote health and wellness. Using mobility innovation as a catalyst, we can remake our cities toward a much more human-centric model. FEATURED PROJECTS C. Adams Street D. The Ave on Chicago Activation Study, Avenue, Chicago Phoenix 28 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | CITIES | CITIES & URBAN DESIGN 29
STR A T E G I E S & R E S E A R C H Of those who want to move out of their city, most intend to move in the next year within their metropolitan area. “ To address climate change, Source: Gensler City Pulse Survey Fall 2021 12 % pollution, and natural resource 44 % Not sure 47 % depletion, we must take a more Within a 33 % year Within 10 % metropolitan area Over a regenerative, resilient approach year Different country to planning and developing I INTEND TO MOVE IF YOU WILL MOVE OUT OF YOUR our cities.” CURRENT CITY, IN THE NEXT... Queueing at HOW FAR WILL YOU Boarding MOVE? Source: Dialogue Blog by Carlos Cubillos and Daquan Zhou, “Why Circular Cities Play a Critical Role in Restoring Ecologies” 31 % 23 % Different region Not sure An average of 55% of people in the 10 cities we surveyed said their city Only one in eight urban residents are 37% of respondents are living is becoming less affordable. considering moving to a larger city; the most paycheck to paycheck. popular destination is a smaller city. 55% Source: Gensler City Pulse Survey Fall 2021 Source: Gensler City Pulse Survey Fall 2021 Source: Gensler City Pulse Survey Fall 2021 37 % 30 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | CITIES | CITIES & URBAN DESIGN 31
CRITICAL OVERVIEW As demand for data continues to surge with no With no decrease in demand for data, as well as FACILITIES end in sight, data centers are playing an increasingly critical role in enabling and scaling rapid change. increasing demand for colocation and hybrid cloud opportunities, the data center market is poised The shape, location, and size of these facilities are adapting to handle greater volume and improve for growth over the next several years. speed-to-market capabilities, while becoming more — CRN resilient to meet market demands to address climate change. A C TRENDS 01 B 02 03 04 Hyperscale leads the charge. Edge data centers are the Net zero strategies will Immersive cooling could next frontier. influence design. reshape the industry. Spurred by explosive demand for digital cloud services, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google now account for 50% of all investments in Data center clients are marrying hyperscale The market is increasingly demanding a more In seeking new ways to decrease carbon data centers across the globe, and they are rapidly expanding their cloud computing with edge computing, sustainable approach to the creation and impacts and make data centers more footprints. For hyperscale data centers, the focus on simplification, which locates more processing power closer operation of data centers, which have a massive efficient, designers are beginning to look scale acceleration, and infrastructure optimization will continue as to the end user. This is improving perfor- carbon footprint. This demand is leading many closer at immersion cooling, an approach speed-to-market is more important than ever. mance, reducing costs, and helping to fuel large data center clients to embrace low-impact that submerges servers in liquid to cool the growth of next-generation technologies materials, heat-waste recovery, and emerging them. This technology has the potential to and applications such as 5G and Internet technologies, such as liquid cooling and radically change the shape, location, and of Things (IoT). renewable energy. size of data centers. FEATURED PROJECTS A. Databank - Georgia B & C. Future Digital Tech Data Center, Data Systems Atlanta 32 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | CITIES | CRITICAL FACILITIES 33
STR A T E G I E S & R E S E A R C H Liquid immersion cooling reduces power consumption. Source: Business Wire/Graphic courtesy of 3M By 2023, over 50% of new enterprise IT infrastructure Vapor condenses on coil or lid deployed will be at the 90 condenser edge, rather than corporate Fluid recirculates passive to data centers, up from less bath than 10% today. Vapor rises % to top Liquid immersion cooling systems consume 90% less energy compared to Source: IDC traditional air-based CRAC systems. Heat generated on chip and fluid turns into vapor The cloud is dominating the sector. The global datasphere will continue to grow exponentially. Source: Structure Research Source: IDC Total cloud revenue (in USD billions): Volume of data created and replicated worldwide 2020 – 2026 (Data volume in zettabytes) 600 200 181 $ 526 500 150 147 $ 404 400 120 $ 306 97 300 100 $ 230 79 200 64 $ 170 $ 125 50 41 $ 91 33 100 26 16 18 13 7 9 2 5 0 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 34 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | CITIES | CRITICAL FACILITIES 35
EDUCATION OVERVIEW 02 03 04 Learning institutions are evolving to meet students’ needs and adapt to a hybrid learning experience. As students look to schools not just as places of Equity, safety, and engagement Creating wellness ecosystems on The evolution of the academic learning — but as places to feel safe, engaged, and will be key design considerations. campus is essential. workplace will impact included — there will be an ongoing emphasis on campus planning. educating and nurturing the whole student and To ensure success and address inequities To adapt to the post-COVID needs of students, their well-being. in education, the post-pandemic school will need schools, colleges, and universities need to Academic institutions are taking cues to address both equity and engagement, along explore how the concept of wellness can be from other industries by planning and with safety, belonging, and basic needs. Gensler’s integral to everyday campus life. Whether designing campuses that can welcome A research has shown that the “average learner” designing a new facility, creating a new master faculty and staff into a healthier, more is a myth, and instead of designing one optimal plan, or developing programs, solutions must engaging, and more effective workplace. universal learning experience, it is imperative be holistically student-centric and stigma-free. In addition to workstations and offices, to design for multiple pathways for engagement Building an ecosystem around wellness provides academic institutions should consider a for each student. different access points for students on and toolkit of spaces that support creativity, off campus, and in virtual and physical settings. collaboration, focus, and engagement with students and colleagues. C TRENDS B 01 Future hybrid learning environments must embrace choice. According to Gensler’s Education Engagement Index, 68% of students and 74% of educators want a hybrid approach — a model that includes a combination of in-person and remote learning methods. For schools, this means designing for hyper-flexible and tech-enabled learning environments that can provide students and educators a choice. There is no one-size-fits-all approach. Technology allows institutions “If we are to design for all learners, our goal should not be to design to engage with students in a personalized one optimal and fixed experience for all students, but to design for diverse way, providing flexibility and agility. and evolving ways to engage.” — Dialogue Blog by Erin Cubbison, Patricia Nobre, Kyle Sellers, Allison Bulgart, “5 Considerations for Designing the Future of Higher Education” FEATURED PROJECTS A. University of California, Riverside Student B. Georgetown Day C. Columbia College, Success Center, Riverside, Calif. School, Washington, D.C. Chicago 36 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | CITIES | EDUCATION 37
5 STRATEGIES & RESEARCH 68% of students and 74% of educators Students report a decline in all types want a hybrid approach — a model that of relationships. includes a combination of in-person Source: Gensler Education Engagement Index 2021 and remote learning methods. Source: Gensler Education Engagement Index 2021 PRE-COVID 81% 80% 32% CURRENT 75% 71% 44 % 61% 63 % 59 % 58 % University of San Diego Learning Commons, San Diego EDUCATOR Considerations for designing 24% the future of higher education PEER-TO- STUDENT/ STUDENT/ STUDENT/ 62% PEER INSTRUCTOR MENTOR ADVISOR 25% Our Education Engagement Index 2021 research, which examined the experience of students and educators in learning and 52 % teaching during the pandemic, holds critical considerations for what the future of higher education might look like. Here are five key findings: STUDENT 1 2 3 STUDENTS FEEL LESS INSTRUCTORS MAY NOT DESPITE CHALLENGES, 23% SUCCESSFUL ACADEMICALLY UNDERSTAND THE SCOPE HYBRID LEARNING IS THAN BEFORE THE PANDEMIC OF THE PROBLEM PREFERRED FOR THE FUTURE 62% of the students report feeling less motivated, less engaged, or that they are growing less academically All learning modes suffered as a result of Instructors overestimated students’ self- Although most report that learning was more Fully in-person Fully remote Mixed interaction since before the pandemic. the pandemic, and nearly half (44%) of students reported effectiveness across all six learning effective on campus before the pandemic, classes classes classes now feel less successful academically — modes at home. An empathetic lens for 68% of students and 74% of educators want illustrating the deep impacts on learning. the student experience is necessary as a hybrid approach — a model that includes administrators consider a future of in-person, a combination of in-person and remote mixed-interaction, and online learning. learning methods. Among different learning activities, hands-on and small group activities rank as the most valuable to do in-person on campus. 4 5 Source: Gensler Education Engagement Index 2021 RELATIONSHIPS COLLABORATION IS RANK ACTIVITIES Undergrad Program Community College Graduate/Doctoral CAN IMPACT STUDENTS’ A TOP DRIVER MOTIVATION AND FOR RETURNING 58 % WELL-BEING TO CAMPUS 1 SOCIALIZING WITH OTHERS 39% 54 % Students with positive relationships While the campus is essential for in-person 51 % WORKING IN-PERSON WITH reported higher scores for all motivational classes, it is even more valued for connecting 2 CLASSMATES 41% 51 % and emotional well-being factors. Institutions with others and facilitating daily routines. must recognize the connection between Hands-on activities and small class lectures are 50% the health of relationships and learning among the activities that students said they 3 WORKING IN-PERSON WITH INSTRUCTORS 45% 54 % outcomes, and consider how relationships would return to campus for. can be supported in a hybrid model. 47% HAVING A DAILY 4 SCHEDULE/ROUTINE 41 % 43 % 43% 5 ATTENDING A CLASS 31% 34% 38 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | CITIES | EDUCATION 39
DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | WORK THE FUTURE OF WORK THE WORKPLACE EXPERIENCE The workplace is changing at an unprecedented pace. Across the globe, we’ve seen a fundamental shift in how and where work happens. Amid these profound shifts, organizations, developers, and landlords want to know what they can do to optimize their real estate. What will set them apart is the experience they design for tenants and employees. We know that workers around the world still place a great deal of value in the physical workplace for social interaction, mentorship, deep concentration, and collaborative work. We also know that to compete in a war for talent, companies must also support an ecosystem of workspaces — both in and out of the office — where talent can thrive. This is an opportunity to rethink the physical workplace to offer a unique and fulfilling experience that can attract people, whether that’s through new technologies or new types of spaces. C O NSUMER GOODS ENERGY FINANCIAL S V C S FOUNDATIONS/ASSOCIATIONS GOVERNMENT & DEFENSE MEDIA office bUILdINgs PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT PROFESSIONAL SVCS R E AL ESTATE svcs TECHNOLOGY 40 41
DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | WORK 01 02 03 THE WORKPLACE MUST EXPERIMENTATION, THE NEW WORKPLACE BECOME A COMPELLING PROTOTYPES, AND LEARNING ECOSYSTEM WILL INCLUDE DESTINATION ARE THE NEW NORMAL THIRD SPACES We’re seeing a shift to the new role We’re entering a phase of Today’s workers want an ecosystem of the workplace as a “destination” — experimentation, piloting, and of places to work both in and out of creating experiences that employees learning. The new workspaces must the office. Third places and coworking can’t get working remotely. Top- be driven by purpose and research to spaces are increasingly preferred performing companies understand dig in and figure out what is working, for a variety of work activities. the power of the physical workplace what is not working, and analyze Developers and landlords should for their people to thrive, as well as outcomes. A key piece of successful create spaces such as working lobbies drive creativity and innovation. piloting is to test and measure. or outdoor workspaces. 04 05 THE WORKPLACE WILL PLAY A INVESTMENTS IN HEALTH CRITICAL ROLE IN FOSTERING AND WELL-BEING WILL DELIVER EQUITY AND INCLUSION VALUE FOR EMPLOYEES Companies should extend Employers should focus not equity beyond race, gender, and only on enhancing workers’ physical generations to create equitable work health through biophilia and experiences for employees who wellness design, but also building are working in-person and remotely personal and professional to create a culture of inclusivity relationships for mental well-being. and belonging. Here are five key metatrends impacting the work sector, and how design is responding: Confidential Energy Client, Houston previous page: Trilith Studios, Fayetteville, Ga. 42 43
CONSUMER 03 OVERVIEW A consumer goods organization’s workplace is GOODS Consumer goods companies are now competing for tech talent. increasingly expected to be a conduit to its consumers with engaging touchpoints bridging the gap between The acceleration of e-commerce has consumer goods companies competing for talent that internal and external experiences. Companies are understands and can create virtual experiences — typically the domain of technology companies. beginning to seek out design expertise that begins Facilitating equitable experiences for workers with different styles, skillsets, and preferences with workplace design services and then digs deeper C will be top of mind for companies seeking to ramp up quickly as new talent pours in. — making sustainability commitments outwardly visible, telling comprehensive brand stories, and putting the product development process on full display. A “[T]here is immense hunger from employees to engage on topics that give them a sense of purpose — and decarbonization is a top-of-mind topic for many.” — McKinsey TRENDS B 01 02 04 05 All-in-one real estate can blend Sustainable products will The workplace will continue Real estate will continue product innovation with consumer continue to attract consumers. to morph. to support a brand’s mission engagement. and purpose. A concerted movement is underway to Consumer goods companies are constantly Consumer goods real estate is moving toward decarbonize as many products as possible, searching for new ways to engage customers, There is an increase in demand for curated the development of holistic experience centers. inclusive of the supply chains and workplaces both in person and across various social spaces that celebrate a brand’s heritage These all-in-one sites blend workplace,research, that produce them. Among consumers media platforms. One growing trend in the and history, while also reflecting on the and product showcasing. They help brands on the hunt for ways in which their spending industry is to use the office to create fully future of the business. Within consumer better understand their target audiences and decisions can positively impact the integrated, high-tech broadcast spaces that goods, such spaces serve a dual role, provide consumers with a peek behind the environment, companies that commit to can generate engagement and set unique reinforcing a company’s mission among curtain to learn how their favorite products net zero real estate and workplaces will stages for product stories straight its workers while also conveying it are made. get high marks. from consumers. to consumers. FEATURED PROJECTS A. Knoll Chicago B. Pladis Global 2020 - C. Shiseido Global HQ Showroom, Chicago New HQ Design, Renovation, Tokyo London 44 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | WORK | CONSUMER GOODS 45
ST R A T E G I E S & R E S E A R C H More consumer goods workers would prefer to be in the office full time than in any other industry. “Real estate’s new source of value Source: Gensler U.S. Workplace Survey Summer 2021 is that it is the platform outside Full time in the office of the home for experiences 23% 21% 17 % beyond the virtual.” Source: World Economic Forum article by Gensler Co-CEO Diane Hoskins CONSUMER GOVERNMENT/ GOODS SCIENCES DEFENSE Both supply chain interruptions and the environment are driving COO’s to explore new suppliers, though contingency plans remain underdeveloped. Source: PwC 12% 10% 10 % % 50 Exploring new Exploring new Changing locations Developing suppliers to reduce suppliers for (manufacturing contingency plans ENERGY FINANCIAL MEDIA supply chain environmental/ plants, delivery in case of supply SERVICES vulnerability sustainability centers) due to the chain interruptions reasons pandemic 40 33% 31% 9% 9% 7% 30 29% 27% 27 % 24% 22% 22% 21% 21% 20% 20% 20 18% TECHNOLOGY LEGAL MANAGEMENT ADVISORY 13% 13% 11% 10% 10 9% 9% 7% There are clear differences in work location 0 preferences by industry. We have implemented this Have a plan in place but have not started Developing a plan Considering a plan We do not plan to do this 46 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | WORK | CONSUMER GOODS 47
B ENERGY OVERVIEW A focus on sustainability and energy security will demand new solutions throughout the energy sector. The industry will continue to expand its offerings, including renewable energy, energy efficiency, renewable fuels, smart grid technologies, and energy storage systems as sub-sectors. TRENDS A 01 Investments in a sustainable future have become paramount. A focus on sustainability has become a prerequisite for the oil and gas industry as pressure mounts to promote renewable energy, sustainability, and the energy transition. In the coming years, we will see many more companies embed resilience within projects to minimize environmental impact and increase operational efficiencies. These investments will also include worker health and safety, and community engagement. 02 Artificial intelligence will accelerate energy transformation. Over the next 30 years, energy systems will need to change dramatically to meet climate goals. Decarbonization efforts and renewable energy generation is already growing rapidly. The next step is to leverage AI to enable more efficient and cost-effective decision-making for smart grids, sensor-connected power plants, and wind turbines. Smart technology will help the industry transition quickly and efficiently to a low-carbon global energy system. FEATURED PROJECTS A. Confidential Client, B. Confidential Client, San Ramon, Calif. Midland, Texas 48 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | WORK | ENERGY 49
C STRATEGIES & RESEARCH “Renewable energy generation is growing rapidly, driven by falling costs and growing investor interest.” Source: World Economic Forum Renewable energy development in the Energy-related emissions need to drop U.S. continues to gain pace. 30% below 2019 levels by 2030, and 75% by 2040, to reach net zero in 2050. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence Source: BloombergNEF Operating Planned stand-alone Planned Planned paired storage Drop in emissions by 2030 2020 2021 relative to 2019 60 K 60 K 30 40 K 40 K % to reach net zero Drop in emissions by 2040 20 K 20 K in 2050 relative to 2019 75 0 0 SOLAR WIND STORAGE SOLAR WIND STORAGE 03 04 2022 2023 % to reach net zero Resilience strategies will become essential for Flexible, purposeful spaces are fundamental in 2050 mitigating risk. to future success. 60 K 60 K Rate of emissions reduction to 2030 The energy sector must become increasingly resilient in addressing The energy industry can spur innovation with workplaces that are a aging infrastructure and decarbonization. Additionally, the sector must collection of flexible and purposeful spaces, supplied with optimal prepare for and adapt to risks, such as supply chain disruption, technology. This will create an equitable experience for all workers, 40 K 40 K 3.2 cyberattacks, and the extreme weather associated with climate change. whether they’re participating virtually or in-person. New space The transformation must take into account the inequities among typologies should be introduced as an extension of the workplace low-income communities who might lack the resources to withstand rather than just a transition, with opportunities to pause, have or rebound after crises. a conversation, and work indoors and outdoors. 20 K 20 K % year over year 0 0 FEATURED PROJECT SOLAR WIND STORAGE SOLAR WIND STORAGE C. Confidential Client, Houston 50 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | WORK | ENERGY 51
C FINANCIAL OVERVIEW In an industry where place — and the expectation SERVICES to be present in that space — have defined company culture and the client experience for years, FIRMS financial services firms are redefining how to enable employees to do their best work while reevaluating their real-estate portfolios. As the war for talent heats up, firms have an opportunity to lean into new, culture-defining space typologies to enhance the employee experience. A TRENDS B 01 02 Space and policy can help win the Hybrid work will continue to war for talent in the years to come. reshape the trading floor. Amid upheaval, financial services firms are New technology has enabled hybrid forms of rethinking how they can deepen connections collaboration, and this is influencing the space with employees and attract new talent from itself. Those executing trades will still need the tech sector. Banks have already started dedicated seats on the trading floor, but other to reevaluate their cultures. Some will supporting functions can be more agile on reconnect with the traditional workday prior to the pandemic, while others will embrace the floor, enabling organizations to add new types of spaces, such as informal collaboration 03 the agility and productivity that the pandemic rooms and decompression areas. Financial services firms workplace design for the C-suite is becoming brought to drive innovation and appeal more transparent and accessible. to new talent. Today’s workers expect leaders to be more accessible, and design is shifting to meet this. Executives are embracing a more collaborative workstyle and becoming more visible to the organization. In addition to evolving executives’ individual workspaces, some firms are FEATURED PROJECTS reconfiguring floor plans so that executives are closer to high-traffic zones. A. Elliott Davis B. Confidential C. Hudson River Trading 3 Interiors, Greenville, Financial Services WTC Relocation, S.C. Client, Tokyo New York 52 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | WORK | FINANCIAL SERVICES FIRMS 53
“After seeing first-hand that the pandemic disproportionately affected STRATEGIES & RESEARCH younger workplace generations in terms of advancement and mentorship, financial organizations are doubling-down on spaces for learning, training, and networking with younger workers in mind.” Share of enclosed team rooms will likely increase, while private offices decrease — Gensler Financial Services Industry Briefing, Fall 2021 post-pandemic. Source: Gensler Financial Services Industry Briefing, Fall 2021 D THE DIAGRAMS BELOW SHOW THAT THE SHARE OF ENCLOSED SPACES IS STILL THE SAME — IT’S JUST BEING REPURPOSED TOWARD THE TEAM. PRE-PANDEMIC POST-PANDEMIC Private Enclosed Team Lounges Offices Rooms Top 6 Changes in C-suite Design Source: Gensler Financial Services Industry Briefing, Fall 2021 RANK High 1 L E A D E R S H I P M O D E L I N G O R G A N I Z AT I O N A L C H A N G E 04 05 Frequency 2 D E C E N T R A L I Z E D E X E C U T I V E S E AT I N G Mid The shift from individual to collaboration spaces Firms will continue to integrate ESG goals into Frequency will continue. their portfolios. 3 L O C AT I O N I N S TA C K Low In the post-pandemic era, financial services firms are taking a critical With heightened regulatory, stakeholder, and policy pressures, financial Frequency look at improving enclosed spaces with a shift from “individual” to services firms are grappling with how to respond to Environmental, 4 APPROACHABILIT Y AND SECURIT Y “team.” As firms lean into hybrid working, large, dedicated offices can Social, and Governance (ESG) concerns. Clients are in varying stages no longer be justified. Instead, single-size offices are making way for of maturity in their ESG commitments, but most are seeking guidance 5 COWORKING WITH EXECUTIVES enclosed rooms that are designed with collaboration in mind. for how to integrate their aspirations on climate action and issues of social equity. 6 LEVEL OF SERVICE OR FORMALITY FEATURED PROJECT D. Confidential Financial Client, New York 54 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | WORK | FINANCIAL SERVICES FIRMS 55
C FOUNDATIONS, OVERVIEW In many ways, associations, nonprofits, and like- ASSOCIATIONS & minded organizations feel socioeconomic changes most acutely because they are so closely embedded ORGANIZATIONS in their local communities. These local ties inspire a greater sense of responsibility for the relationships with their community and for the well-being of their employees. Organizations will continue to leverage their real estate to further their mission, support their members, and encourage citizenship in the community. A TRENDS 01 02 B 03 Virtual programming leads to As the workplace becomes more Data and metrics will drive real expanded opportunities, locally diverse, wellness must be integrated estate decisions. and globally. into a variety of spaces. There is a deepening need for data and Connecting to membership and the broader The future of work involves people being more metrics to understand what like-minded community, convening spaces cast a larger nomadic as they seek out diverse environments “The long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic organizations are doing to better support net, create equitable experiences, and foster in which to work — quiet corners, meeting will keep rippling out across our politics, economy, and their teams and communities in order to a deeper connection through increased rooms, social hubs, and restorative outdoor culture, including affecting the funding landscape drive decisions around their space needs. programming, events, and organizational experiences, which can encourage daily move- Organizations continue to use real estate awareness. A new perspective has evolved, ment, and inspire and delight. This reflective for nonprofits.” to embody the organization’s mission and centered around funding opportunities and period has led organizations to an integration serve its membership in new and innovative outreach. This perspective also strengthens — Anna Galland, former executive director of MoveOn Civic Action, of health and wellness in all aspects of the ways, establishing the office as a social the organization’s mission, while fostering in the Stanford Social Innovation Review workplace, and with more ardent conversations hub with shared purpose and a connection connection to the surrounding communities. around resilience. to the mission. FEATURED PROJECTS A. REACH LA, B. APTA Centennial C. Plywood People, Los Angeles Center Headquarters, Atlanta Alexandria, Va. 56 D E S I G N F O R E C A S T 2 0 2 2 | W O R K | F O U N D A T I O N S, A S S O C I A T I O N S & O R G A N I Z A T I O N S 57
D STRATEGIES & RESEARCH “ This is a time to think about how our cities and communities can be places that celebrate diversity, support our residents, and lead with human experience.” Source: Bevin Savage-Yamazaki, Foundations, Associations & Organizations leader, Gensler The portion of workers who have returned Source: Salesforce Nonprofit Trends Report varies widely by industry — foundations/ associations employees are most likely to have returned to the office. Source: U.S. Workplace Survey Fall 2021 49% HAVE YOU WORKED FROM YOUR OFFICE AT ANY POINT SINCE THE PANDEMIC STARTED? % 100 94 49% of nonprofits said that 89 88 over the past 12 months their 83 83 80 organization has changed its 79 approach to DEI. 74 72 69 60 65 04 Self reflection and recentering leads to higher relevance and purpose. 40 FOUNDATIONS/ASSOCIATIONS 32% MA NA GEM EN T AD VI SO RY FI NA NCI AL S ER VI CE S As advocates and leaders in diversity, equity, and inclusiveness, organizations lead with human experience and continue to quantify impact and increase focus on action by CO NS UME R GO OD S creating a range of DEI policy and design considerations leading to accountability, agency, 20 and a fuller embodiment of their mission. GO VE RNM EN T TE CH NOL OG Y 32% of all nonprofits SC IE NCE surveyed said ensuring the EN ER GY LE GA L ME DI A mental health and well-being 0 of their employees was a FEATURED PROJECT major issue for them over Yes No the past year. D. Oxford Finance Interiors, Alexandria, Va. 58 D E S I G N F O R E C A S T 2 0 2 2 | W O R K | F O U N D A T I O N S, A S S O C I A T I O N S & O R G A N I Z A T I O N S 59
government & OVERVIEW 03 Both government operations and the physical DEFENSE C offices supporting them have entered a new era. Governments will be expected to lead on net zero Security concerns will continue carbon strategies, and their security approaches are to redefine government buildings. evolving to incorporate measures to anticipate and survive climate change events. With walk-in services Increasing numbers of data breaches and going virtual and workers embracing hybrid office more incidents of domestic political unrest will strategies, many agencies will downsize offices and significantly affect the security infrastructure rethink how they allocate real estate in order to of government buildings. Design will play a provide communities with critical services in more key role in maintaining the balance between equitable ways. openness and security, promoting safety and democratic values. Vehicle barriers can take the form of well-designed benches, other street furniture, and landscape features, which can A enhance the public realm. Crowd control barriers can be designed as easily erected elements that interrupt access only when needed. 04 Government will move toward resilient, “net zero ready” facilities. Government facilities have an opportunity to lead on environmentally conscious design and construction, such as mass timber, and many have begun funneling investments in this direction. Businesses and nonprofits will look to governments to “walk the talk” on carbon reduction commitments, and to make green designs publicly visible. Extreme weather events will continue to threaten operations continuity, requiring resilient designs that can adapt to rising waters, high winds, the disruption of energy grids, and other emergencies. Governments that remain operational in times of crisis will gain public trust and, ultimately, save lives. TRENDS B D 01 02 05 Walk-in government services are As governments reevaluate Public-private partnerships will going virtual, prompting redesigns. square footage needs, many will reshape public real estate. downsize offices. Among walk-in services where governments In addition to accommodating business have traditionally had in-person contact with State, federal, and local governments are offices, governments have started to rethink the public — think permit reviews, driver’s diving into a concerted review of their true the use of public property to include space license renewals, and even social services such square footage requirements. Governments for housing and other social needs, often as counseling — hybrid and virtual models are have traditionally adopted conservative real via public-private partnerships. On the taking hold. Governments are reimagining the estate strategies, but now many are embracing local level, awareness is growing around offices that provide such services and reducing hybrid work environments. Many agencies the importance of locating resources close square footage. As this trend plays out, equity are moving forward with renovations, lease to the people who need them; successful concerns will be paramount, as virtual services renewals, and new office construction under implementation of the 20-minute city enhance convenience but risk excluding the assumption that fewer workers will occupy concept will therefore include ready citizens without technology access. the office full time in the future. access to government services. FEATURED PROJECTS A. LA County Department of Mental Health, B. U.S. Embassy, C. Wheaton Town D. City of Austin Permitting and Development Vermont Corridor, Los Angeles London Center, Montgomery Center, Austin County offices, Wheaton, Md. 60 DESIGN FORECAST 2022 | WORK | GOVERNMENT & DEFENSE 61
You can also read