Demographic Change and Urban Transportation Systems: A View from India
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Urban Transportation Systems:
A View from India
Sain, Soumit
Keuschen, Thomas
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ISSN 1866-0304Sain, Soumit/Keuschen, Thomas/Klumpp, Matthias
Demographic Change and Urban Transportation Systems: A View from India
FOM Hochschule für Oekonomie & Management
ild Institut für Logistik- & Dienstleistungsmanagement
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung
Band 25, Juli 2012
ISSN 1866-0304
Essen
Forschungsförderung (LOGFOR Projekt) durch:
Die Autoren danken Sascha Bioly für Korrekturhinweise zu dieser Publikation.Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change II
Table of content
List of abbreviations ..................................................................................................... III
List of figures ............................................................................................................... IV
List of tables .................................................................................................................V
Abstract/Zusammenfassung ........................................................................................ VI
1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1
2 Basics of Urbanisation ....................................................................................... 2
2.1 Background ....................................................................................................... 2
2.2 Mega-Cities ....................................................................................................... 3
3 An Overview of India (Before 1991 and after 1991) ........................................... 4
3.1 Development and State of the Art ...................................................................... 4
3.2 Demographic and Social Structure in India ........................................................ 6
3.3 Urban Transportation System of India: A View from the Indian Automotive
Sector................................................................................................................ 7
3.4 Demographic Change and it’s Effects on the Urban Transportation System ...... 8
4 Logistics Concepts for Urban Transport........................................................... 10
4.1 Short Term Concepts ...................................................................................... 10
4.1.1 Bundling: Citylogistics .............................................................................................. 10
4.1.2 Technology: E-Mobility ............................................................................................. 10
4.1.3 Social Intelligence: Transport Buddy........................................................................ 11
4.2 Long Term Concepts ....................................................................................... 11
4.2.1 Infrastructure: Smart Metering ................................................................................. 11
4.2.2 Markets: Grid Pricing ................................................................................................ 12
4.2.3 Planning: Urban Greenfields .................................................................................... 12
4.3 SWOT-Analysis: Urban Transport Systems India ............................................ 13
5 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 14
References ................................................................................................................. 15Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change III List of abbreviations GDP........................ Gross Domestic Product SWOT..................... Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change IV List of figures Figure 1: India: Gross Domestic Product....................................................................... 5 Figure 2: Population Development in India .................................................................... 6
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change V List of tables Table 1: Development of Mega-Cities from 2007 to 2025 ............................................. 3 Table 2: SWOT-Analysis Urban Transport Systems India ........................................... 13
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change VI Abstract This research paper deals with the specific question of demographic developments in India, which are in many parts reciprocal developments for example compared to Ger- many. In India the trend of bigger urban areas (urbanization) is a large challenge for transport systems. A contribution of a general development in India, particularly the pollution and econom- ic development, are the objectives of the following paper. Furthermore this paper illus- trates future urban transport systems under the specific logistics point of view. As method a SWOT analysis is applied. Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Forschungsarbeit beschäftigt sich mit der besonderen Frage der de- mographischen Entwicklung in Indien, welche in weiten Teilen reziprok zur Entwicklung beispielsweise in Deutschland verläuft. Insbesondere der Trend zu immer größeren Ballungszentren (Urbanisierung) wird Indien in Zukunft gerade für urbane Transport- systeme vor sehr große Herausforderungen stellen. Dafür skizziert der Beitrag die allgemeine Entwicklung in Indien, insbesondere die Be- völkerungs- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung. Anschließend werden Konzepte für zukünftige urbane Transportsysteme vorgestellt und eine SWOT-Analyse aus logistischer Sicht vorgestellt.
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 1 1 Introduction With globalization, circling in the nook and corner of this world, perspective of doing business has dramatically changed over the last few years. Furthermore with this glob- al issue, the coordination of undertaking global business is also witnessing changes within changes in countries’ demographic structures. These potential changes within the social and demographic structures over the last years have witnessed severe impli- cations within logistics and urban transport systems throughout world. Taking this as- pect into account this paper addresses the change in demographic structures and its effect within the urban transportation system in modern India as one of the largest countries and economies of the world. This paper is based on desk based literature research as part of the methodology. This is a descriptive study based on the observation of the authors on the field trips to India in the last few years. Based on the observation of the author, the paper is conceptual- ise to find the inter-linkage and correlation between the demographical structures and its implication within the urban transportation system in India. The structure of the paper is as follows: After the small introduction and the objective, the next section will provide a brief and comprehensive overview of India before the time frame 1991 and after 1991 (the begin of liberalization policies). After which the following section will provide a comprehensive overview of the demographic and social structures of India where cultural and social aspects will be described in detail. Follow- ing which the next section will provide a brief overview of the urban transportation sys- tem of India where the automotive industries of India will be highlighted as it reflects the change and its demographical implication. The next section will focus on highlighting the inter-linkage between the demographical change and its effect within the urban transportation system in modern India which will then followed by a some recommen- dations and remedial solutions from the logistical side. Following this part the paper will then conclude with some possible outlook and future potential.
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 2
2 Basics of Urbanisation
2.1 Background
A Challenge in the 21st century is the urbanisation. With a fast rate the world’s popula-
tion growths.1 But what is the urbanisation exactly? In literature many definitions exist. 2
A multidimensional phenomenon and a continuing process are characteristics for ur-
banisation,3 and it is complex to describe what this is exactly.4 In the 1950s and 1960s
the concept of urbanisation described by sociologists more than a simple agglomera-
tion already. It is more than a migration from rural to urban; the concept of urbanisation
gives also evidence for social behaviour.5 Many publications use the definition of the
Department of Economics and Social Affairs which has two different areas: (1) The
urban and rural areas and (2) Urban agglomerations. In 2007 following information in
(1) was exemplary used:6
■ Urban and rural population and the percentage urban
■ Percentage of the population residing in urban areas
■ Urban, rural and total population by country
■ Total population by country
■ Average annual rate of change of the urban, rural and total population
■ Urbanisation rate or average annual rate of change of the percentage urban
■ Average annual rate of change of the percentage rural
In 2007 the following indicators were covered in area urban agglomerations (2):
■ Total population of each urban agglomerations
■ Average annual rate of change the population of each urban agglomerations
■ Percentage of the urban and total population residing in each urban agglomera-
tions
First Urbanisation is a demographic condition, namely the percentage of urban to total
population on of a country which is expressed in degree of urbanisation. Second urban-
isation is a demographic process which illustrates the dynamics of the growth rate. 7
1
Cp. Glaeser, E., L./Shapiro, J. M. (2003), p.139; Narasaiah, M. L. (2001), p.16; Sidhu, H. K. (2007), p.
49; United Nations (2011), p.2-4; United Nations (2008), p.2.
2
Cp. Jenkins, P.et al. (2008), p.9; Öhngren, B. (1981), p.188; Potter, R. B. et al. (2008), p.382.
3
Cp. Annez, Clarke, P./Buckley, R. M. (2009), p.1; Zhu, Y. (1999), p.15.
4
Cp. Heineberg, H. (2006), p.30.
5
Cp. Anderson, N. (1959), p.5; Schnore, L. F. (1994), p.37.
6
Cp. United Nations (2008), p.63.
7
Cp. Spreitzhofer, G. (2011), p.1.Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 3
2.2 Mega-Cities
In literature a homogeneous definition of megacity is not available. One reason is the
interdisciplinary character; cultural geographer, social scientists, historians and urban
researchers deal with this topic exemplary.8 From population threshold as low as five
million,9 eight million10 or ten million11 the definitions vary.12 Megacities can be under-
stood as quantitative dimensions of population and space extensions of cities. 13 The
challenge for today and the future are a sustainability development. 14 In this paper a
mega-city is defined as a big city with more than 10 Million inhabitants. The following
table illustrate the development of megacities from 2007-2025:15
Table 1: Development of Mega-Cities from 2007 to 2025
2007 2025
Rank Urban agglomeration Popu- Rank Urban agglomeration Popu-
lation lation
1 Tokyo, Japan 35.7 1 Tokyo, Japan 36.4
2 New-York-Newark, USA 19.0 2 Mumbai, India 26.4
3 Mexico City, Mexico 19.0 3 Delhi, India 22.5
4 Mumbai, India 19.0 4 Dhaka, Bangladesh 22.0
5 Sao Paulo, Brazil 18.0 5 Sao Paulo, Brazil 21.4
6 Delhi, India 15.9 6 Mexico City, Mexico 21.0
7 Shanghai, China 15.0 7 New York-Newark, 20.6
USA
8 Calcutta, India 14.8 8 Calcutta, India 20.6
9 Dhaka, Bangladesh 13.5 9 Shanghai, China 19.4
10 Buenos Aires, Argentina 12.8 10 Karachi, Pakistan 19.1
Source: United Nations (2008), p.10.
In 2025 the population in India will increase approx. 40 % in comparison to the basic
year 2007. India will have four mega-cities (Rank, City Madras with 10.1 million inhab-
itants).16
8
Cp. Schwentker, W. (2006), p.10.
9
Cp. Krass, F. (2006), p.21.
10
Cp. Silver, C. (2008), p.19.
11
Cp. Heinrichs, D. et al. (2012), p.4; World Health Organization (2009), p.3.
12
Cp. Krämer, A./Kahn, M. H. (2010), p.32; Sorensen, A./Okata, J. (2010), p.6.
13
Cp. Schwentker, W. (2006), p.10.
14
Cp. Ahlering, B. (2000), p.104; Sorensen, A./Okata, J. (2010), p.6; Wheeler, S. (2007), p.863-876.
15
Cp. United Nations (2008), p.10.
16
Cp. United Nations (2008), p.10.Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 4 3 An Overview of India (Before 1991 and after 1991) 3.1 Development and State of the Art An Overview of India (Before 1991 and After 1991) In order to address the main issue within this paper, it is necessary to provide a com- prehensive and a compact overview of India before the period 1991 and after 1991 where the so called liberalization policies took place. This is an important and vital as- pect to observe the political, social, economical and monetary, technological, legal and ecological change that happened after 1991 which transformed a land from ´nothing´ to one of the fastest growing economies of the world at this present moment. India Before The Period 1991 (Pre Liberalisation Policies) Indian economic policies after independence (15 Aug. 1947) was mainly influenced by colonial experience and Fabian socialism. It was more of a protectionist system, with very strong emphasis on import substitution, industrialization under state monitoring, state intervention in all major business levels activity and within the labour market and a strong emphasis on large public sector and five year of central planning concept. Five year planning resembled central planning in the former Soviet Union. Furthermore the government during that time attempted to close the Indian economy to the outside world. The Indian currency, the rupee was inconvertible and high tariffs and import li- censing prevented foreign goods to enter the market. Impact Of Pre Liberalisation Policies Due to these reforms stated above the impact was certainly not positive in terms of growth and prosperity of the Indian economy during that time. The growth rate stagnat- ed to around 3.5 %, large public sector utility based companies like power, steel and communications build large monopoly which led to extensive power accumulation. Fur- thermore infrastructural and urbanization of modern transportation and road systems faced severe setbacks. Also problems within the agricultural sector got wider, highly restrictive and complex labor laws created red tape and bureaucracy within all segment of the government, inadequate infrastructure, failing education, insufficient foreign ex- change reserve and high public spending, high inflation in basic consumer goods and high fiscal deficit are some of the impacts and implications of the pre liberalization poli- cies of the Indian government during this time. India After The Period 1991 (Post Liberalisation Policies) The impacts of the pre liberalization policies led to a substantial change in 1991 leading to the post liberalization policies. The policies catered around opening up the economy
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 5 for foreign companies to enter Indian soil. These happened literally when economic measures were taken in 1991 for a radical change. From the period of 1991 till today this nation has witnessed a steady growth rate of 8 % to 9 % per annum to be the se- cond fastest growing economies of the world. These reforms have also helped India to increase its foreign reserves and have given loads of multinational companies to invest in India in various segments of the industries. Below is an illustration of India’s GDP: Figure 1: India: Gross Domestic Product Source: www.mtholyoke.edu, 13. Jun. 2012. All segments of the industries are growing since the reforms of 1991. Global trade rela- tions have increased with all major industrial nations of the world leading to a strong position of India within the global business world. Economic trends can be observed with a sharp inclination leading to the prosperity of the Indian economy. Problems of the Indian Reforms (1991 – Date) However there are some potential problems of this huge growth rate of the Indian economy after the reforms of 1991. India still suffers the ´3P´ problems which are pollu- tion, poverty and population. India’s population is growing faster that its ability to pro- duce wheat and rice. Furthermore despite of the ´3P´ problems India is facing another problem dealing with corruption which is a very pervasive problem affecting India. An- other potential problem is the disparity of the reforms in India which affects the popula- tion in providing basic needs like income, literacy rates, life expectancy and living con- ditions.
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 6 3.2 Demographic and Social Structure in India Demographical and social structures in India are also dynamically changing over the years. In order to have a comprehensive understanding of the demographical struc- tures in India one needs to understand the complexity of cultural issues within one na- tion. India does not have any one uniform cultural identity … it can be reflected in vari- ous forms. Just to mention some few elements of the Indian cultural traits and charac- teristics it can be observed within the different languages that exist within one nation. India has 22 different languages, different food habits, different religions and unques- tionably different values. Ronen and Shenkar (1985) has clustered countries in respect to similarities in work and behaviour where India is clustered as one on the independ- ent countries as it has unique values, religions and habits which cannot be clustered within one group of nations. With these different values and moral habits, India has and still witnessing some dramatic change within the social structures. The illustration be- low depicts that increase in population over the last years 50 years till 2010. Figure 2: Population Development in India Source: faostat3.fao.org, 13. Jun. 2012. From the figure above it can be seen that India has witnessed a steady and a rapid increase in population in these years leading to non uniformity in prosperity and social well being in the country. Currently India has approximately 1.18 billion inhabitants which is the second largest populated country after China. This is also the country with a very young population as well. Based on some statistical data from the Central Intel- ligence Agency (2011), the medien age of India’s population is 26.2 years. The age structure of this country is as follows: 29.7 % are within the age between 0-14 years, 64.9 % are within the age between 15-64 years. Growth rate of this country is 1.3 % as per 2011. Birth rate is 20.9 births per 1000 inhabitants and death rate is 7.4 per 1000
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 7
inhabitants. It can be seen that India’s population is young compared to Germany
where the median age is 44 years according to 2011 estimation. Urbanisation is India
is 30 % approximately and the rate of urbanisation is 2.4 % (2011 estimation). Com-
pared to that of Germany, urbanisation is 74 % (2011 estimation). These data are all
from Central Intelligence Agency of USA.
Shifts Within The Population Class (Post Liberalisation Policies)
With a population of over 1.2 billion people – approximately 25 times more than the
population of Germany) – this huge number poses a major challenge and threat of
tackling infrastructural problems like urban transportation system and logistics. To care-
fully understand this issue, India has more than 50 % of its population below the age of
25 and more than 65 % below the age of 35. Most urban Indians are well educated,
work for multinational companies predominantly in the information technology sector,
earn a relatively modest salary and enjoy the freedom, the prosperity and the liberty of
a so-called western world.
That means there is a steady increase of Indians who now can be called the middle
class population. These shifts have occurred due to positive economic growth and the
overall success of India’s progress within the global business world. These dramatic
changes within the demographic structures have also led to some potential problems
within India’s urban transportation system.
3.3 Urban Transportation System of India: A View from the Indian Automotive
Sector
With the reforms the Indian economy boomed in the last years exponentially leading to
a shift in the middle class population and increased prosperity and well being of the
people. The reforms also had a huge positive effect of various industries within the
country leading to growth, prosperity and creation of jobs. The automotive industry
within India has grown over the last years. Global players like BMW, Daimler, VW, GM,
Toyota and many more have entered the Indian market to participate in the advantages
of this huge customer potential. The implication is that car sales have increased steadi-
ly over the last 10 years since 2000 – clearly demonstrating the increase of the pur-
chasing power of the young Indians. The automobile industry in India is one of the
largest in the world and one of the fastest growing globally. India's passenger car and
commercial vehicle manufacturing industry is the seventh largest in the world, with an
annual production of more than 3.7 million units in 2010. In 2010, more than 3.7 million
vehicles were produced in India which is jump of 33.9% from the previous year. ThisSchriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 8 makes the second fastest growing market in the global business world. According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, annual vehicle sales are projected to increase to 5 million by 2015 and more than 9 million by 2020. By 2050, the country is expected to top the world in car volumes with approximately 611 million vehicles on the Indian roads. The automobile industry has a turnover of more than 35 billion dollars and provide direct and indirect employment to almost 13 million people. The Indian automobile industry is currently experiencing an unprecedented boom in demand for all types of vehicles. This boom has been triggered primarily by two factors: (1) increase in disposable incomes and standards of living of middle class Indian fami- lies estimated to be as many as four million in number; and (2) the Indian government's liberalization measures such as relaxation of the foreign exchange and equity regula- tions, reduction of tariffs on imports, and banking liberalization that has fueled financ- ing-driven purchases. Industry observers predict that passenger vehicle sales will triple in five years to about one million, and as the market grows and customer's purchasing abilities rise, there will be greater demand for higher-end models which currently consti- tute only a tiny fraction of the market. These trends have encouraged many multina- tional automakers from Japan, USA, and Europe to enter the Indian market mainly through joint ventures with Indian firms. 3.4 Demographic Change and it’s Effects on the Urban Transportation System Indian is witnessing a demographical change in a different fashion in comparison to Germany. The population is extremely young as pointed out in earlier in the paper with an average age of 26 years, compared to 44 years in Germany. There are less old people in India than that of Germany. Furthermore, economic growth and success of India, since its post liberalization policies in 1991 sparked a huge will to succeed and enjoy the prosperity and a better life in a country which is predominantly poor. Moreo- ver, the tremendous shift from a lower to middle class, as a result of strong economic success leads to more consumption in all walks of life. Before the reforms of 1991, owning a car is only for the rich and people who could afford it. After the reforms, with tremendous success for a better life and prosperity, young educated Indians would also love to have a small piece of the cake as well. What was not possible some years ago, is now simple possible? Owning a car is a normal aspect of India population and car sales have increased steadily over the last 10 years since 2000 – clearly demonstrating the increase of the purchasing power of the young Indians.
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 9 However there is another side of the story. The major issue and the challenge is that India still could not manage to take a major step in solving the never ending infrastruc- tural problems – in this case urban transportation system. The huge amount of cars, trucks, bikes and other forms of transportation on urban Indian cities has led to capaci- ty and coordination problems of handling traffic on the roads causing huge traffic jams and unnecessary waiting times, accidents and other issues. Taking a simple example, Kolkata (Kalkutta) is one of the largest cities in India with an urban population of approximately 13 Million – transportation problems have long been an agenda for the state government but no such measures were taken – knowing that there was and would be a steady increase of automobiles within the last decade that happened due to overwhelming growth rate of India and prosperity for the upper middle class people. Taking these factors into account, the government of India has taken steps to modernize the urban transport system and to coordinate it in an effective and efficient way. As space for building roads are no longer available due to excessive population, flyovers are being constructed to tackle this huge increase of automobiles. This is to increase capacity and to reduce the problems stated above. The key to success in the industry is to improve labour productivity, labour flexibility, and capital efficiency. Having quality manpower, infrastructure improvements, and raw material availability also play a major role. Access to latest and most efficient technolo- gy and techniques will bring competitive advantage to the major players. Utilising man- ufacturing plants to optimum level and understanding implications from the government policies are the essentials in the Automotive Industry of India. Both, Industry and Indian Government are obligated to intervene the Indian Automotive industry. The Indian government should facilitate infrastructure creation, create favour- able and predictable business environment, attract investment and promote research and development. The role of Industry will primarily be in designing and manufacturing products of world-class quality establishing cost competitiveness and improving productivity in labour and in capital.
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 10 4 Logistics Concepts for Urban Transport 4.1 Short Term Concepts From the general logistics management theory several ideas are feasible for short-term adaption to urban transport problems and even have in some cases already been test- ed and implemented in one or another context world-wide. Some thereof will be pre- sented here in order to colour the future picture: Bundling, Technology and Social Intel- ligence. 4.1.1 Bundling: Citylogistics Even from the 1980ies the concept of bundling transports when entering urban areas under the name of citylogistics was developed and known, even piloted and imple- mented. But in a large scale this did not succeed in Europe and America because the density and pressure of urban transport i.e. traffic jams were not severe enough com- pared to the needed investments and co-operation efforts of logistics service providers enabling citylogistics. Therefore for future implementations the lessons learned were: The congestion and also land price pressure has to be very high on logistics compa- nies and especially expected to rise (sharply) further in the future to justify investments in cross-dock facilities and co-operation endeavours. Second strong rules and trust among logistics companies is needed, possibly aided by government agencies or chambers of commerce as intermediaries (also in order to keep official competition watchdogs at bay in this specific case). If this can be solved several logistics service providers would transport their goods destined for one urban area to a nearby cross- dock and then only a smaller number of trucks or other vehicles (even trains or trams) would travel into the city areas from this cross-dock station. 4.1.2 Technology: E-Mobility For decades engineers have dreamt and researched for new propulsion technologies to overcome the main burdens of truck and car traffic, the emissions from burning fuel in those vehicles. Now this dream is in the process of becoming true, zero-emission vehicles enter their commercial market lifetime, an era we call “e-mobility”. But even if in a near or distant future most vehicles are equipped with electric propulsion systems, many hurdles still remain for e-mobility to be the magic solution to urban transport problems: (i) The charging infrastructure has to be build anew, e.g. London plans to sport 1.300 charging stations in 2013 (Siemens AG, 2011) – an eager plan and hard to match for cities in less developed countries. (ii) The production of electricity has to be provided in a renewable fashion – using coal or atomic plants will only deliver half-
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 11 solutions as emissions will occur in other places or risks for society will increase in the case of nuclear energy production. (iii) The problem of limited space and congestion will not be solved by e-mobility. 4.1.3 Social Intelligence: Transport Buddy A new concept could earn promising fruits in developing countries like India: Social networking may expand fast and enable social interaction to provide intelligent transport sharing services: Not only could the old-fashioned idea of “ride-sharing” with cars be revived but people travelling by car or even cycle could act as flexible “internet- activated” transport messengers in urban areas. Such buddy and social network ser- vices have been tested in Germany but are not feasible in European contexts. But communication and especially social co-operation may expand dramatically especially in high-density and high-pollution areas within mega-cities in Asia. A new and person- based integration of communication and transport services using smartphones and e- bikes may be possible and also very social and sustainable. 4.2 Long Term Concepts For a more long-term perspective due to investment needs and building times many logistics options arise for urban areas, again three major concepts are presented here as the most promising for countries like India: Infrastructure, Markets and Planning. 4.2.1 Infrastructure: Smart Metering From electricity infrastructure the concept of smart metering exists: Pricing for users should reflect actual capacity situations as a form of modern yield management. But this requires the necessary payment and documentation infrastructure: Users of transport infrastructure have to be allocated (tracing) and billed (metering) according to their user timeframes and frequencies. This is for example possible with the German toll collect system by the help of satellite GPS recognition of all trucks on motorways but not implemented due to political hesitations and micro-management problems (Which roads in cities?). Nevertheless, this concept could be a major help in future scenarios as users pay higher prices in congested times and lower prices in times without a huge traffic-load for urban infrastructure.
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 12 4.2.2 Markets: Grid Pricing A similar concept used for infrastructure supply is grid pricing as a spot market for transport infrastructure: For example in Germany cargo and passenger train time slots are sold to the highest bidder and therefore favourable track routes as well as preferred times get obvious by higher prices – and providers of infrastructure also receive higher incentives to invest in these areas where demand prices are high. This concept has many problems, e.g. the question of infrastructure ownership and competition – which is usually impossible especially in urban areas as mostly government authorities have a monopoly on infrastructure ownership and also possible (limited) areas for transport infrastructure projects. 4.2.3 Planning: Urban Greenfields A final and very interesting concept is the question of intelligent strategic planning of (new) urban areas: This concept claims city planners to suggest more sustainable transport solutions simply by avoiding transport flows by an intelligent design of loca- tions, e.g. living areas integrated into working areas in order to avoid many people commuting long distances from home to working places. This Greenfield planning has surely limitations, mainly that it is only feasible for new cities or parts thereof – but still it is very interesting as it avoids traffic completely and therefore is the best of all solu- tions. China is pioneering this concept in the design of completely new cities and indus- trial areas in the eastern part of the country away from the densely populated coastal areas.
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 13
4.3 SWOT-Analysis: Urban Transport Systems India
For implementation logistics concepts a Swot-Analysis illustrates the strengths, weak-
nesses, opportunities and threats. Many Authors use the Swot-Analysis for a strategic
decision making.17 In this case the Swot-Analysis was applied for logistics and urban
concepts in India. At first the strengths and weaknesses of India are listed, then the
possible opportunities and threats for sustainable logistics concepts.
Table 2: SWOT-Analysis Urban Transport Systems India
Strengths Weaknesses
- Young and qualified population - Dependent on political decisions
- Economic growth - New qualification concepts in sustainability,
- Process of urbanisation not complete logistics, urbanisation and technology are
- Geographic location (water trails) needed
- Good locations of airports - Improvement of infrastructure expensive and
time-consuming
Opportunities Threats
- Rapid implementation of short-terms- - Long periods for implementation long-term-
concepts possible (E.-Mobility, telematics, concepts
e.g.) - Urban population cannot handle
- Competitiveness in reference to sustainabil- - Risk of obsolescence before implementation
ity, technology and logistics (technology and sustainability)
- Leadership in urbanisation - Put wrong technology (education, invest-
- Creating a sustainable culture ments)
Source: Own Creation.
17
Cp. Keuschen, T. (2010), p.101; Kühne + Nagel International AG (2010), p.4; Lee, K-L./Huang, W-
C./Teng, J-Y. (2007), p.87.Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 14 5 Conclusion Within this paper, the main issue is to address a simple inter linkage between change in demographic structures due to an increase in economic growth and its potential ef- fects on urban transportation system in India and also to recommend some sugges- tions for improvement. To achieve this existing concepts and knowledge from German experiences and re- search results as e.g. within the national excellence cluster ´LogistikRuhr´ and the re- search hub ´Urban Transport Systems´ of the University of Duisburg-Essen is used to transfer knowledge and ideas towards the Indian situation. Furthermore, the paper also addressed the concepts of mega cities and logistics concepts for improving urban transportation system of big cities, specifically focusing on India.
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 15
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13.Jun. 2012Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 18
Die Publikationsreihe
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung / Research Paper Logistics
In der Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung des Institutes für Logistik- & Dienstleistungs-
management (ild) der FOM werden fortlaufend aktuelle Fragestellungen rund um die
Entwicklung der Logistikbranche aufgegriffen. Sowohl aus der Perspektive der Lo-
gistikdienstleister als auch der verladenden Wirtschaft aus Industrie und Handel wer-
den innovative Konzepte und praxisbezogene Instrumente des Logistikmanagement
vorgestellt. Damit kann ein öffentlicher Austausch von Erfahrungswerten und Bench-
marks in der Logistik erfolgen, was insbesondere den KMU der Branche zu Gute
kommt.
The series research paper logistics within Institute for Logistics and Service Manage-
ment of FOM University of Applied Sciences addresses management topics within the
logistics industry. The research perspectives include logistics service providers as well
as industry and commerce concerned with logistics research questions. The research
documents support an open discussion about logistics concepts and benchmarks.
Band 1, 11/2007 Klumpp, M./Bovie, F.: Personalmanagement in der Logistikwirt-
schaft
Band 2, 12/2007 Jasper, A./Klumpp, M.: Handelslogistik und E-Commerce [vergrif-
fen]
Band 3, 01/2008 Klumpp, M. (Hrsg.): Logistikanforderungen globaler Wertschöp-
fungsketten [vergriffen]
Band 4, 03/2008 Matheus, D./Klumpp, M.: Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
in der Logistik
Band 5, 11/2009 Bioly, S./Klumpp, M.: RFID und Dokumentenlogistik
Band 6, 12/2009 Klumpp, M.: Logistiktrends und Logistikausbildung 2020
Band 7, 12/2009 Klumpp, M./Koppers, C.: Integrated Business DevelopmentSchriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 25, Sain/Keuschen/Klumpp: Demographic Change 19
Band 8, 04/2010 Gusik, V./Westphal, C.: GPS in Beschaffungs- und Handelslogis-
tik
Band 9, 04/2010 Koppers, L./Klumpp, M.: Kooperationskonzepte in der Logistik
Band 10, 05/2010 Koppers, L.: Preisdifferenzierung im Supply Chain Management
Band 11, 06/2010 Klumpp, M.: Logistiktrends 2010
Band 12, 10/2010 Keuschen, T./Klumpp, M.: Logistikstudienangebote und Logistikt-
rends
Band 13, 10/2010 Bioly, S./Klumpp, M.: Modulare Qualifizierungskonzeption RFID
in der Logistik
Band 14, 12/2010 Klumpp, M.: Qualitätsmanagement der Hochschullehre Logistik
Band 15, 03/2011 Klumpp, M./Krol, B.: Das Untersuchungskonzept Berufswertigkeit
in der Logistikbranche
Band 16, 04/2011 Keuschen, T./Klumpp, M.: Green Logistics Qualifikation in der
Logistikpraxis
Band 17, 05/2011 Kandel, C./Klumpp, M.: E-Learning in der Logistik
Band 18, 06/2011 Abidi, H./Zinnert, S./Klumpp, M.: Humanitäre Logistik – Status
quo und wissenschaftliche Systematisierung
Band 19, 08/2011 Backhaus, O./Döther, H. /Heupel, T.: Elektroauto – Milliarden-
grab oder Erfolgsstory?
Band 20, 09/2011 Hesen, Marc-André/Klumpp, M.: Zukunftstrends in der Chemielo-
gistik
Band 21, 10/2011 Große-Brockhoff, M./Klumpp, M./Krome, D.: Logistics capacity
management – A theoretical review and applications to outbound
logistics
Band 22, 11/2011 Helmold, M./Klumpp, M.: Schlanke Prinzipien im Lieferantenma-
nagement
Band 23, 03/2012 Gusik, V./Klumpp, M./Westphal, C.: International Comparision of
Dangerous Goods Transport and Training Schemes
Band 24, 04/2012 Bioly, S./Kuchshaus, V./Klumpp, M.: Elektromobilität und Lade-
säulenstandortbestimmung – Eine exemplarische Analyse mit
dem Beispiel der Stadt Duisburg
Band 25, 07/2012 Sain, S./Keuschen, T./Klumpp, M.: Demographic Change and
Urban Transportation Systems: A View from IndiaArbeitspapiere der FOM
Die 1993 von Verbänden der Wirtschaft gegründete staatlich anerkannte gemeinnützige
FOM Hochschule verfügt über 22 Hochschulstudienzentren in Deutschland und ein weiteres
in Luxemburg.
Als praxisorientierte Hochschule fördert die FOM den Wissenstransfer zwischen Hochschule
Klumpp, Matthias (Hrsg.)
und Unternehmen. Dabei sind alle wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Studiengänge der FOM
auf die Bedürfnisse von Berufstätigen zugeschnitten. Die hohe Akzeptanz der FOM zeigt sich
ild Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung
nicht nur in der engen Zusammenarbeit mit staatlichen Hochschulen, sondern auch in zahl-
reichen Kooperationen mit regionalen mittelständischen Betrieben sowie mit internationalen
Band 25
Großkonzernen. FOM-Absolventen verfügen über solide Fachkompetenzen wie auch über
herausragende soziale Kompetenzen und sind deshalb von der Wirtschaft sehr begehrt.
Demographic Change and
Weitere Informationen finden Sie unter fom.de
Urban Transportation Systems:
A View from India
Sain, Soumit
Keuschen, Thomas
Das Ziel des ild Institut für Logistik- & Dienstleistungsmanagement ist der konstruktive Aus- Klumpp, Matthias
tausch zwischen anwendungsorientierter Forschung und Betriebspraxis. Die Wissenschaftler
des Instituts untersuchen nachhaltige und innovative Logistik- und Dienstleistungskonzepte
unterschiedlicher Bereiche, initiieren fachbezogene Managementdiskurse und sorgen zudem
für einen anwendungs- und wirtschaftsorientierten Transfer ihrer Forschungsergebnisse
in die Unternehmen. So werden die wesentlichen Erkenntnisse der verschiedenen Projekte
und Forschungen unter anderem in dieser Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung herausgegeben.
Darüber hinaus erfolgen weitergehende Veröffentlichungen bei nationalen und internationalen
Fachkonferenzen sowie in Fachpublikationen.
Weitere Informationen finden Sie unter fom-ild.de
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