DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK - GOVERNMENT & POLITICS Eric Crampton and Nathan Smith - The New Zealand Initiative
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GOVERNMENT & POLITICS DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK Eric Crampton and Nathan Smith
DEMOCRACY
IN THE DARK
Eric Crampton and Nathan Smith
© The New Zealand Initiative 2020
Published by
The New Zealand Initiative
PO Box 10147
Wellington 6143
New Zealand
www.nzinitiative.org.nz
Views expressed are those of the authors and do not
necessarily reflect the views of The New Zealand Initiative,
its staff, advisors, members, directors or officers.
ISBN About the New Zealand Initiative
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policy and are committed to developing policies that work for all New Zealanders.
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a profound, positive and long-term impact.
Attribution 4.0 International (CC by 4.0)ABOUT THE AUTHOR CONTENTS
Eric is the Chief Economist at The New Zealand Initiative.
With the Initiative, he has worked in policy areas ranging from Foreword 05
freshwater management to policy for earthquake preparedness, and Executive summary 07
from local government to technology policy. He has recently focused Introduction 09
on policy related to Covid-19 response. He served as Lecturer and Senior
Lecturer in Economics at the Department of Economics & Finance CHAPTER 1
at the University of Canterbury from 2003 through 2014, where his Civics 101: What every voter should know 11
academic research included work on the causes and consequences
of voter ignorance. CHAPTER 2
The known unknowns 18
Eric’s columns and commentary appear regularly in New Zealand’s
major media outlets, as well as on his blog, Offsetting Behaviour. CHAPTER 3
Fixing the problem 27
Nathan is The New Zealand Initiative’s Chief Editor. He brings deep Conclusion 35
experience writing about business and policy from his eight years as Appendix 36
a reporter for The National Business Review and holds a Bachelor of Endnotes 40
Communication from Massey University. During his time at the NBR,
he wrote weekly columns on foreign affairs and trade, coordinated the
newspaper’s feature section and covered the country’s most exciting
technology companies and startups.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors acknowledge and thank all those who have generously
assisted with this research and the preparation of this report.
In particular, they thank Oliver Hartwich, Luke Redward,
Joel Hernandez, Briar Lipson, Roger Partridge, Jack Vowles,
Graeme Edgeler, Eldon Paki and Paul Andrews. The authors are solely
responsible for the opinions expressed in this report and any errors
and omissions.
THE NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE 03Foreword
Figures
Democracy is part of our miracle cure for society’s ills. But even if it is
FIGURE 1: How informed do you think you are in deciding civic religion, and elections are not, could representative democracy at least help
how to vote in the next election? 21 its solemn masses. us make decisions about the rough direction
FIGURE 2: How often do you consume written political news of travel for New Zealand?
such as newspapers, news, websites or magazines? 21 Every three years (in New Zealand at least),
FIGURE 3: Can you name all the political parties in the current voters come together to exercise their democratic For that to be true, there would still need to
NZ Parliament? 22 birthright. They cast their votes, decide on be a basic level of political and institutional
FIGURE 4: Under MMP, in what ways can parties gain a seat the direction of the country, and elect their knowledge. Voters would at least need to know
in Parliament? 22 representatives. the rules of the democratic game, and they would
FIGURE 5: Who is the current Minister of Education? 22 need a very rough idea about the political actors
FIGURE 6: Who is the current Minister for the Environment? 22 This is the romantic notion of what democracy and their belief systems.
FIGURE 7: Which parties in the current NZ Parliament voted is – or at least what it should be. It is supposed
for the Zero Carbon Bill which passed in late 2019? 23 to be a government “of the people, by the people Unfortunately, as this report and its survey of
FIGURE 8: Some people say that the best people from all parties and for the people,” as Abraham Lincoln put it in civics knowledge shows, there are wide gaps
should come together and form a permanent, all-party government. the Gettysburg Address. in the public’s understanding of politics. If
Do you agree? 23 it is of any consolation, New Zealand is not
FIGURE 9: How do you feel about the idea of having experts, The idea behind this is already encapsulated in unusual in this respect as similar surveys in
not elected politicians, make decisions according to what they think the word. The people (δῆμος / dêmos) shall have other democracies have come to similar results.
is best for the country? Is this model a very good, good, bad the power (κράτος / krátos) to rule themselves. But does that make it any better?
or very bad model? 23
FIGURE 10: Some countries have a strong leader who doesn’t have There remains one problem, though. For In this election year 2020, we can see how
to bother with a parliament or elections. Is this model a very good, democracy to genuinely bring out and implement elections, which are supposed to be the pinnacle
good, bad or very bad model? 23 the will of the people, the people first need to of the democratic process, actually make
FIGURE 11: Can you name the three branches of government? 24 know what they want. More than that, they need matters worse.
FIGURE 12: In applying the law, do NZ courts have to take into to understand the nature of the problems they
account the political intentions of the Government of the day? 24 face and the proposed solutions. Instead of leading the public towards more
FIGURE 13: Does NZ have a military alliance with the and deeper engagement with policy choices,
United Kingdom? 25 It is easy to understand why such a requirement the pre-election period has been dominated by
FIGURE 14: Which countries form the Five Eyes Alliance? 25 is too much to ask. Even small-scale political stories of politicians’ personal misbehaviour.
decisions, say if a city needs a new school,
require a great amount of information to be The Prime Minister even told voters not to expect
Tables considered properly. a large-scale range of policies from her party this
election. Consequently, she campaigns under the
TABLE 1: Educational attainment across political parties 25 For more complex questions such as dealing with slogan ‘Let’s keep moving’ – as if she was trying
TABLE 2: Civics education in the United States 29 a housing crisis, climate change or a pandemic, to sell gym memberships.
even experts will take years to understand the
issues – and may still disagree on the appropriate Right now, democracy, imperfect as it is, does
courses of action. not live up even to its most basic function.
If voters do not know much about its workings,
Democracy, though appealing in theory, faces and if politicians offer little more than platitudes,
severe practical hurdles. It is no straightforward the country will never have the public discourse
04 DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK THE NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE 05Executive summary
it needs to develop good policies and hold those Perhaps these ideas may initially appear ludicrous
who rule to account. and far-fetched. But isn’t this better than
running a policy-free election campaign for
Citizens and voters should not resign to this sad an apathetic electorate?
state of affairs. We can strive for stronger civic
engagement. But as a prerequisite, we need to Democracy may be an unrealistic, utopian Almost a century ago, American columnist • About a third knew Hon Chris Hipkins
improve our knowledge – and especially our and unworkable ideal. We should not give up H.L. Mencken quipped that democracy is is Minister of Education;
children’s knowledge – of our political system on it though. There are worse alternatives. a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of • Only one in twenty knew David Parker
and our politics. individual ignorance. is Minister for the Environment;
Dr Oliver Hartwich • One in eight could identify all three
This report makes recommendations on Executive Director The century since then brought ubiquitous branches of government;
what New Zealand could try to bolster civics. The New Zealand Initiative radio, and then television. Education levels rose • A fifth knew that courts do not have
For example, we could provide financial substantially. The internet provided everyone to consider the political intentions of the
incentives to keep people informed on politics. with access to a global library. The answer Government of the day when making
to any question about New Zealand’s history, legal decisions;
its constitutional arrangements, voting system • Just over one in five respondents knew
or its government is available for anyone who which political parties voted in favour
cares to ask. of the Zero Carbon Bill;
• 56% of respondents believed New Zealand
Despite this easy information, and despite has a military alliance with the
increases in education levels that should give United Kingdom.
everyone the tools to understand the world,
the state of political knowledge remains These kinds of misperceptions can matter.
consistent with Mencken’s quip. If one does not know which parties are even
in Parliament, how can they successfully reward or
A passing knowledge of the state of political punish parties in the election? Without a working
knowledge could lead to despair – or amazement knowledge of how MMP works, will a voter be able
that policy outcomes have managed to be as to reflect their preferences? If it is assumed the UK
good as they are. will come running to New Zealand’s rescue due to
a fanciful military alliance, will that affect voters’
This report canvasses the state of knowledge preferences about defence and foreign policy?
about civics in New Zealand, and elsewhere.
It draws on both previously published surveys, Civics education at secondary school is relatively
like the New Zealand Election Survey, and a weak, with few students picking up the NCEA
newly commissioned survey of the current state standards that rigorously approach the topic.
of knowledge about New Zealand’s political
and civic institutions. At the same time, the benefits of civics education
may be overstated: decades of instruction in
Our survey, undertaken in January of this civics in the US coincide with very poor political
year, suggested Kiwis might need to do a bit knowledge in that country. And one intriguing
of studying before the coming election: experiment, which added new lessons about the
US Bill of Rights to some civics classrooms, did
• Just under 70% of Kiwis polled could not wind up reinforcing civics knowledge among
name every party presently in Parliament; students: surveyed two years later, they knew
• Less than half understood both ways a no more about it than students who had not
party can enter Parliament under MMP; received the extra instruction.
06 DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK THE NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE 07Weak knowledge about civics can be more This report does not provide any magic bullets INTRODUCTION
Taking our civics for granted
concerning than weak knowledge in other areas. for improving civic knowledge. But it does
Without knowing much about the cars currently propose a few small experiments that could be
on the market, a prospective buyer will have a tried, to see if they work, and while weighing the
pretty strong incentive to become informed: costs. Part of the report’s goal is to spur creative
getting a choice like that wrong can be expensive. ideas among Kiwis to help solve this problem.
We don’t know how lucky we are behind the Netherlands and Sweden) and top
For civics, because each vote has only Strengthened civics instruction could be of the charts for the Institute’s combined overall
infinitesimal effects on political and policy implemented in some schools, with testing two Satirist John Clarke’s character Fred Dagg measure of human freedoms.6
outcomes, the incentive to become informed years later to see if it improved knowledge about reminded New Zealand in 1975 that “we don’t
is far weaker. Problems in the media sector in civics. It would also look at whether the extra know how lucky we are.” It was a bit tongue New Zealand ranked second only to Iceland
general, and specifically the issue most people civics instruction came at the cost of knowledge in cheek. But over the decades since, a variety in the Institute for Economics & Peace’s
have with paying for rigorous journalism, stem about other important things. Pushing on of international league tables show us he may Global Peace Index7 and is the world’s least
from a similar source. Few people are willing to that string has not been particularly fruitful have been a prophet. corrupt country, according to Transparency
bear the costs of being better informed. They elsewhere, but it could work here. International’s Corruption Perception Index.8
make a judgement that such an investment too US-based non-profit Freedom House ranks
often has little tangible return. But it might also pay to try pulling on the civics countries based on their civil liberties and For other indices, New Zealand ranks near
string: giving people stronger incentives to be political rights. In 2019, New Zealand earned the bottom – and thankfully so. For instance,
There is far more discussion of a civic duty better informed. the highest possible score for the political rights the Fund for Peace’s 2020 Fragile States Index
to vote than there is about a duty to cast enjoyed by its citizens and was two points shy ranks New Zealand as the 173rd least failed
an informed ballot, and that is a problem. of a perfect 60 points on civil liberties.1 state, out of 178 overall.
In the same way that each car’s greenhouse
gas emissions has a tiny effect on global Reporters Without Borders placed New Zealand When a country ranks in the top tiers
warming which becomes substantial in the as ninth in the world for freedom of the press, across a wide range of measures of its overall
aggregate, each vote has a tiny effect on with a declining score due not to government institutional quality, with peer countries
political and policy outcomes. And there is censorship of the media but rather due to the sometimes higher on one measure but no country
no equivalent to the Emissions Trading Scheme difficulty of producing quality journalism regularly in front – its citizens really are lucky to
to internalise the externalities that come of in a small market.2 be living in the best place in the world. Everyone
poorly informed ballots. can point out things to improve, but Kiwis
The UK-based think tank Legatum should not lose sight of the big picture.
Institute’s 2019 Global Prosperity Index
placed New Zealand seventh overall, between The bigger worry is the “don’t know” part of
the Netherlands and Germany. New Zealand’s Fred Dagg’s catchy song. New Zealanders don’t
strength was due in part to its high ranking know how they got so lucky. The institutions of
on the quality of governance institutions governance since the reforms of the 1980s, and its
and a strong environment for investment.3 democratic civic institutions, built that prosperity
New Zealand also topped the planet on the and liberty. When Kiwis don’t appreciate what
World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index.4 holds up this wonderful little clubhouse, it’s
a bit too easy to accidentally knock out the
The US think tank Heritage Institute ranks loadbearing walls.
New Zealand second only to Singapore in
economic freedoms.5 And the Canada-based Kiwis have a weak understanding of
Fraser Institute ranked New Zealand just their democratic and civic institutions
behind both Singapore and Hong Kong for and underappreciate the economic foundations
economic freedom but miles above both for that provided three decades of broad bipartisan
personal liberties (New Zealand ranked third consensus about what good policy looks like.
08 DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK THE NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE 09That makes for some fragility. When crises And far too few Kiwis know the difference CHAPTER 1
Civics 101: What every voter should know
require hurdling over a few fences to find a between bits of fence separating long-disused
solution, it’s important to know why the fences paddocks that can be safely removed and the
were there. As G. K. Chesterton warned: sections that are still important. This report
tallies the evidence on what Kiwis know, and
In the matter of reforming things, as do not know, about their civic institutions.
distinct from deforming them, there is one To put it bluntly, the state of knowledge Knowledge about politics and civics is itself • Understand how places in New Zealand
plain and simple principle; a principle which is rather poor – but things can be even something of a political question.10 While the are significant for individuals and groups;
will probably be called a paradox. There worse elsewhere. Initiative has its own views about what people • Understand how the cultures of people
exists in such a case a certain institution or should know, it is important to anchor those in New Zealand are expressed in their
law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a New Zealand’s secondary school students views more broadly. daily lives.
fence or gate erected across a road. The more may encounter some basic civics during their
modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it education if they happen to choose to sit the The school curriculum is a good place to start: By Year 8, students are expected to “understand
and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us right standards. But few students attend these NCEA does teach some civics. The intended how the ways in which leadership of groups is
clear it away.” To which the more intelligent classes. Teachers and schools do have influence learning outcomes, for those who choose to acquired and exercised have consequences for
type of reformer will do well to answer: on what standards are available to be studied take those standards, provide one view of what communities and societies” and “how people
“If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly by students. Making civics lessons compulsory matters in civic knowledge. Similarly, the participate individually and collectively in
won’t let you clear it away. Go away and is a tempting idea, but overseas experience Elections New Zealand website provides a good response to community challenges.”
think. Then, when you can come back and suggests it is no panacea. US students have sat summary of the basics of the country’s system
tell me that you do see the use of it, I may civics classes for decades, but surveys of their of government and elections. When they reach age 15 (Year 10–11), students
allow you to destroy it.”9 political knowledge are not rosy. reach Level 6 of the curriculum. At this
The New Zealand Curriculum sets the vision point, the Social Science field splits into four
It is not necessarily wrong to alter things A plethora of online civics resources is available for what Kiwi students can learn in primary subfields (Geography, History, Social Studies
like New Zealand’s dual-threshold for parties’ for those who are interested. But just as sports and secondary school. The curriculum includes and Economics) and eight domains (Classical
entry into Parliament under the Mixed information online hardly leads to everyone some standards on civics, democracy and the Studies, Geography, History, Legal Studies,
Member Proportional electoral system, or fiscal knowing the tie-breaking rules in World Cup process of government, but there is no dedicated Media Studies, Psychology, Social Studies and
responsibility provisions of the Public Finance cricket, the Electoral Commission’s excellent module for these topics. Sociology). The field also switches from being
Act; or a Reserve Bank Act that gives the Central resources explaining New Zealand’s system compulsory to voluntary. While civics education
Bank more independence within a highly of government and elections are only useful Standards fall into 17 fields, which are then divided is not offered as a dedicated domain, some core
prescribed range of activities. But if someone for those who wish to know. Incentives for into 200 subfields with more than 800 domains. aspects do feature in the “Legal Studies” domain
is unclear why those provisions exist, or the becoming informed are poor. In Years 1–10, the field of “Social Science” is for the three NCEA Levels. Other domains, such
historic role played by Maori electorates, or the compulsory, which is the field most relevant for as Classical Studies and Sociology, include some
powers of the Courts relative to Parliament, civics education at those ages. However, thanks to standards on civics. But these mainly include a
it is far too easy to accidentally torch one of the flexibility of the national curriculum, the entire broad discussion about democracy in Ancient
Mr Chesterton’s fences. Social Science achievement objectives for Years Greece or the examination of a single social
1–13 can fit on a single A4 sheet. institution, for instance.
For example, Level 1 in the New Zealand It is only if students take the Legal Studies
Curriculum, which is taught in Years 1–2, domain at the end of their secondary school
requires students to: education that they will engage closely with
• Understand how belonging to groups civics education. Of course, what is taught
is important for people; during the school term can be beyond what
• Understand that people have different is assessed in the standard. During the 2019
roles and responsibilities as part of their year, students for Level 1 in this domain could
participation in groups; complete standards such as:
• Understand how the past is important • Demonstrate understanding of concepts
to people; of democracy and government;
10 DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK THE NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE 11• Demonstrate understanding of • Evaluate a concept of justice in relation about an example of a restraint on state power While the NZQA data does not show how
foundational concepts of justice; to a specific situation; with arguments and counterarguments about many different Legal Studies units were taken by
• Demonstrate understanding of • Evaluate a concept of law in relation to the scenario. an individual student (only the total number of
concepts of law; a specific situation; students in each unit), it is clear only a handful
• Demonstrate understanding of litigation • Evaluate litigation and dispute resolution To achieve an “Excellence” grade, a student of students will finish their school years knowing
and dispute resolution processes in processes in relation to challenging must show they understand: the rule of a little about New Zealand’s democracy.1112
New Zealand; state power; law, civil liberties, how parliamentary
• Demonstrate understanding of • Evaluate a law-making process in sovereignty functions, the legal relationship
law-making processes; relation to a significant legal issue; between individual versus state power, Some of the things you always wanted
• Demonstrate understanding of • Evaluate systems of government and checks and balances within government and to know about government but were
New Zealand’s system of government their formation. “international versus state power.” afraid to ask
and its formation and operation.
Digging into the criteria for the Level 1 standard Not every school will offer Social Studies once Guided by the content of the New Zealand
At Level 2, standards include: question – Demonstrate understanding of concepts the field switches to voluntary. If enough students Curriculum, and by the elements emphasised by
• Describe the legal rights and of democracy and government – NZQA’s advice in a school show interest in taking the domain Elections New Zealand, the Initiative believes
personal responsibilities of secondary states that students can achieve an “Excellence” to achieve their NCEA credits, the school might every informed voter should:
school students; grade by discussing any form of government, teach towards the above standards. Another • Know how MMP works and how to vote
• Explain concepts of democracy and including: theocracy, oligarchy, dictatorship option for keen students – should the threshold (see box);
government in a New Zealand context; or another form of democracy. Writing about for adding the domain that year not be reached – • Understand some history of
• Explain concepts of justice; “suffrage, elections, human rights, media, might be to engage with a correspondence course New Zealand’s democracy, including the
• Explain concepts of law; executive power, rule of law and judicial such as Te Aho o Te Kura Pounamu. Te Kura is role of Parliament, voters and the Queen
• Explain litigation and dispute processes and the treatment of minorities” New Zealand’s largest school with about 25,000 of New Zealand;
resolution processes; is also encouraged. students enrolled annually, from early childhood • Have a foundational understanding of
• Describe factors contributing to, to secondary school. In some instances, students the three branches of government and how
and consequences of, crime; For the Level 2 question – Explain concepts of will also study subjects at neighboring schools. they interact with, and are separate from,
• Explain a law-making process; democracy and government in a New Zealand each other;
• Explain systems for the formation of central context – NZQA suggests teaching about: However, the number of students taking the • Know the basics of how Parliament works,
government, and their consequences, in a “the rule of law, separation of powers, liberal Legal Studies domain is vanishingly small. including the role of the opposition,
New Zealand context; democracy, rights and their limitations, Magna voting and voter participation;
• Describe factors contributing to, and Carta and limits on the power of the monarch, The total number of students enrolled in • Understand the basic constitutional
consequences of, crime; relationship between Tangata Whenua and NZQA external examinations in 2019 was principles, including the Treaty, and the
• Describe the application of New Zealand the Crown as regards te Tiriti o Waitangi, 143,509 across about 500 schools. Some of these civil liberties every citizen enjoys;
law to marriage, civil union and de-facto parliamentary sovereignty and statute as schools use an alternative curriculum to NCEA, • Understand the nature and role of
relationships; highest form of law, absence of a fully written such as Cambridge Assessment International the judiciary.
• Describe legal consequences and constitution, role of the courts, delegated Education. Of this, only 7609 internal units
protections relating to domestic violence legislation.” To get an “Excellence” grade at (assessments) were taken as part of the “Legal With this basic grasp of democracy, voters would
and child abuse; NCEA Level 2, a law studies student must use Studies” courses, with the most popular unit be better equipped to vote in an election.
• Describe the objectives and application a specific example of governance, likely based (NCEA Level 2 Explain concepts of law) taken by
of consumer law. on what was taught during the school term. only 684 students. For the unit Explain concepts This report does not provide a complete Civics
of democracy and government in a New Zealand 101 lesson. It outlines the desired learning
And at Level 3: Should a student continue with Legal Studies, context, only 218 students took this standard last outcomes rather than the lesson plans. Resources
• Demonstrate knowledge of the development they can choose from several more complex exam year. The total number includes students who like the Elections New Zealand website are
of the New Zealand legal system; questions at Level 3. For instance: Evaluate a were not assessed in the standard. The NZQA readily available. But a few other New Zealand
• Evaluate a concept of democracy concept of democracy and government in relation says there are many reasons a student may not be institutions should be important parts of an
and government in relation to restraint to restraint on state power. The student can draw assessed on the unit they take. informed voter’s toolkit.
on state power; from media reports or expert commentary
12 DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK THE NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE 13MMP 101 The Act does not bar the Government from Think about purchasing a car. The first bits of
increasing spending or taxes. Doing both at information about the reliability and suitability
In 1993, New Zealand voted to change the Rather, party A will first fill its 36-seat quota the same time can be consistent with balanced of different models for a buyer’s needs would be
electoral system from First Past the Post (FPP) to with the number of electorate MPs (in blue), and budgets and maintaining prudent debt levels. valuable. But, eventually, spending time reading
Mixed Member Proportional (MMP). FPP tends to the remaining 24 seats with list MPs (in red). The Act rather prevents Governments from up on the different options and searching for
generate two-party systems with single-party relying on debt to finance normal operations. the best deal is no longer worthwhile: it’s time
majority governments, though does not always Whether by increasing spending without to make the purchase. For this kind of decision,
do so. MPs from four parties were elected at New increasing taxes, or by substantially cutting taxes not acquiring enough information can be costly.
Zealand's last FPP election. Under MMP, coalition without cutting spending. In private markets where purchases are taken
goverments are more likely as single party home, mistakes are costly. People regularly get
majorities are less likely. The Reserve Bank Act provides the Reserve Bank things wrong, but the incentives for getting the
Under FPP, voters get one vote: for the with operational independence in managing the necessary information to make good decisions
Member of Parliament (MP) representing their country’s money supply. The Act helps to isolate are appropriately aligned.
electorate. The winning party becomes the However, electorate seats are an important the monetary system from politicians who might
Government if it gets more than half of the safeguard for smaller parties. To gain a seat in be tempted to pull monetary levers for electoral But what is the upside to getting more
electorates either by itself or in coalition with Parliament, a party must either: purposes. Before April 2019, the Bank operated information about politics and civics? If a person
other parties. FPP electoral systems tend to 1. Reach 5% of party votes nationally; or under Policy Targets Agreements with the buys the wrong car, they will take home a costly
produce Parliaments consisting of two major 2. Win an electorate seat. Minister of Finance to specify the range within mistake. But what happens if the same individual
parties, in the absence of significant regional which the Bank must keep inflation outcomes, decides never to learn much about civics and
differences. This 5% threshold was created by Germany on average and over the medium term. The then makes a mistake when voting?
Under MMP, voters get two votes: for the (from where New Zealand take its MMP system) Remit to the Monetary Policy Committee has
MP representing their electorate and for the to ensure that minor extremist parties don’t gain replaced this model and now defines monetary Some caution is needed when talking about
party they want in Parliament. Unlike FPP, the too much traction. Proportional representation policy outcomes. mistakes in voting. Political partisans would
composition of seats in Parliament is (with a systems without a threshold, or with low claim that voting for their preferred party is
minor exception) determined by the share of thresholds, can yield fragmented legislatures not a mistake. The meaning here is a bit more
party votes gained rather than the number of and difficult coalitions.12 Yet high thresholds risk Don’t know much about civics books nuanced. People can have large differences
electorate MPs. encouraging voters to select parties that do not in values which can reasonably lead to big
The party vote is much more important. mirror their personal views if they worry their Not everything that is important is worth differences in what each sees as acceptable trade-
For example, imagine that in an election, party A preferred party is unlikely to enter Parliament. knowing. It would be impossible for anyone offs. None of that can possibly be a mistake.
receives 30% of the party vote. This would entitle to know everything that matters. People It would be like saying that preferring apples
it to 30% of the total seats in Parliament (36 The Exception: Overhangs triage information all the time. As the world to pineapples is a mistake.
seats) or a bit more when considering the votes Yet, what if party A wins an electorate seat but becomes more complex, the scale of the problem
cast for parties that did not enter Parliament. If, doesn’t receive enough of the party vote to only increases. Most people have a rough But suppose that a person’s values led them
alongside its 30% of the party vote, party A also justify one seat in parliament? In this “overhang,” understanding of how toilets work. But few other to support a lot of government involvement
won 12 electorate seats, this would not mean a parliament gets bigger – by one seat. An overhang than plumbers could draw a reliable schematic in economic regulation and redistribution. In
total of 36 + 12 = 48 seats. of more seats is also possible. to help someone build a toilet from scratch. that case, voting for ACT might be a mistake.
The same is true for everything from computers Similarly, if a person likes multiparty coalition
to car engines, and from historical knowledge governments reliably produced by a Mixed
The Public Finance Act guides how Parliament in balance and that debt be maintained at to the function of civic institutions. Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system,
spends public money. It does not ban prudent levels while providing contingencies it would be a mistake to vote for a return to
Governments from running deficits, nor for emergencies – such as pandemics. In an Economists frame this information problem First Past the Post (FPP).
does it prescribe tax levels. It rather provides emergency, the Government need not maintain as one of rational ignorance. Humans acquire
transparency in Government budgeting. The a balanced budget but should publish its information whenever there is a good reason In neither of those cases are the underlying values
Act requires the Government to explain how it intended path back to more normal and prudent to do so. Yet only up to the point where the a mistake. The problem is that failing to acquire
will raise the funds necessary for its spending debt levels. benefits of getting the next bit of information enough information led to a vote at odds with
plans. It requires that budgets typically be outweighs the cost. the person’s underlying values. It’s like saying
14 DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK THE NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE 15the most important thing about a car is its fuel is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of a new Chevrolet Camaro and who is convinced
efficiency, and then buying a Humvee. There is individual ignorance.” Perhaps that belief is better reports of its poor reliability15 cannot be true will
nothing wrong with buying a Humvee if that grounded in theory than Mencken thought. bear the costs of that decision. Pleasant but false
vehicle best suits a person’s needs. The Emissions beliefs in that environment are costly.
Trading Scheme means each Humvee owner will Unfortunately, the world does not seem to
pay for the carbon costs they impose. But buying work that way. People who follow sports do not At the ballot box, things are a bit different.
one while thinking it is the most fuel-efficient just enjoy speculating about the best opening And the difference matters.
option would obviously be a mistake. batsmen pick for the Black Caps. Unless they
are betting at the TAB, a fan wants to believe
Economists and political scientists have long their preferred team will win and that their own
known that rational ignorance is a large problem strategies would work. They have preferences over
in politics. American economist Anthony Downs their beliefs. And the same holds true in politics.
explained the basic problem in his 1957 Economic
Theory of Democracy. Mancur Olson also teased US-based economist Bryan Caplan described
out some consequences in his 1965 book The Logic preferences over political beliefs as being rationally
of Collective Action. When one vote is unlikely to irrational.13 An incorrect belief about which policies
change the outcome of any large-scale election, the lead to which outcomes, or about which parties are
benefits of acquiring information, or even voting likely to deliver different policies, is not expensive
at all, are limited. Instead of visiting a car yard and to hold. If it makes a person happy to believe that
taking home a car, a person casts a vote for the car the Social Credit Party holds all the answers, it does
that everyone will share. The chances that a single not matter if its theories were refuted by University
vote changes the outcome are worse than the of Canterbury economist Alan Danks in 1955.14
chances of winning a lottery. Given these realities, When the cost of holding a pleasant belief is low,
people will likely know a lot less about any party’s why not? While an economist’s perfect-rationality
policies, or the likely real-world effects of those model has little room for untrue beliefs, a rational
policies, than about the features of their next car. kind of irrationality would allow this when those
beliefs are personally harmless.
That isn’t necessarily a big problem. While rational
ignorance predicts people will not acquire much Gathering extra political information then suffers
information and make a lot of mistakes, it also from a classic externality problem. In private
provides a ray of hope: those mistakes may cancel markets, rational ignorance predicts everyone gets,
each other out. So long as mistakes are not on average, just enough information. But where the
systematic, or weighing more heavily to one side time and effort involved in learning basic civics falls
than another, there may be no need to worry. on the individual, the returns on that investment
accrue to the polity more broadly through a slight
If some voters are well-informed, simply because improvement in outcomes at the ballot box. That
they enjoy politics in the same way others enjoy is a classic recipe for inadequate information. The
following sports teams, then those informed voters standard models predict voters will know little,
wind up making the decision. Uninformed votes relative to what is best for society as a whole.
cancel each other out just as many flipped coins
cancel each other out. So long as the preferences Going beyond basic civics into the policies offered
of informed voters largely coincide with those of by the various parties brings an extra complication
their less-informed neighbours, and less-informed of Caplan’s rational irrationality. It is not just that
voters’ mistakes do cancel each other out, it not enough is known, it’s also that, to paraphrase
might all work out. Early 20th-century American the old saying, much of what people do know
essayist H.L. Mencken insisted that “democracy won’t be so. The shopper who loves the look of
16 DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK THE NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE 17CHAPTER 2 Somin also notes that Americans’ political than placing blame with the agency most directly
The known unknowns
knowledge has barely improved since survey responsible. Voters underestimate the importance
research began in the late 1930s. This is despite large of the Federal Reserve for overall economic
increases in educational attainment over the period. outcomes; underestimate the importance of state
and local government for the quality of public
As bad as this is, there is hope. Perhaps the schools, and underestimate the importance of
What voters don’t know that “a popular government, without popular expectations are a bit too complicated. One does Congress and the President for the budget.18
information or the means of acquiring it, is not need to understand how a Camaro’s engine
The models predict that knowledge about civics but a prologue to farce or a tragedy, or perhaps works to know that it isn’t working. So long as How should the angry voter behave at the
will be rather thin. But what does the data say? both.”16 Less than half of Americans surveyed the car owner can figure out whether Chevrolet ballot box when different bodies are in control
could answer basic questions that Delli Carpini is to blame or if the mechanic who provided the of different parts of the federal and state
It turns out a lot is known about what is not deemed crucial to effective citizenship. last oil change made a mistake, the owner can governments? A 2006 Zogby poll found that less
known. The broad conclusion of decades of research make better decisions next time around. than half of American voters could even name all
into political knowledge is that voters are poorly Respondents could not define terms like liberal, three branches of the federal government.19 If a
informed, and that is not a new phenomenon. conservative, or the Bill of Rights. Neither Similarly, voters might not really need to person does not really know who is responsible
could they reliably identify candidates’ or understand anything about policy or politics for what, it can be easy to blame any problem
parties’ positions on important issues. And if they can see through the window that the on whichever part of government is run by the
An Overview of the State of Citizens’
basic knowledge about the unemployment rate, country is working. If they can tell who to blame party they don’t support – and punish them.
Knowledge About Politics
or how much of the federal budget is devoted for any problems, they can vote the responsible
to big-ticket items, was also wanting. Delli party out of office. This kind of economic
The literature on political knowledge provides
Carpini emphasised the half-full part of the retrospective voting massively reduces the There’s no political ignorance in
fairly compelling evidence for five
glass in reminding that an average score of 50% information problem facing voters and, in theory, New Zealand?
characterisations regarding what Americans know:
represented “an under-informed public, but can encourage good policy outcomes.
1. the average American is poorly informed but
not … an uninformed one.” At this point, it is tempting to lean back and
not uninformed;
Sadly, that’s more complicated than it sounds. have a little chuckle about the silly Americans.
2. aggregate levels of political knowledge
The problem is not new. Surely those kinds of problems aren’t in
have remained relatively stable over the
In the US, voters must figure out if any problem New Zealand, right?
past 50 years;
George Mason University law professor is due to government failure, or if the observed
3. Americans appear to be slightly less
Ilya Somin’s review of the literature17 found only problem could not possibly have been fixed When the band Blam Blam Blam told everyone in
informed about politics than are citizens
38% of Americans in 1964 knew that the Soviet by the government. If the government is to 1981 that there was no depression in New Zealand,
of other comparable nations;
Union was not a member of the NATO alliance. blame, did local government mess something or sheep on its farms, or dole queues, everyone
4. “average” levels of knowledge mask
NATO is a military alliance of US-aligned up, state-level government or the federal listening knew it wasn’t really true. But Kiwis
important differences across groups; and
powers formed to defend against the threat of government? At the federal or state level, is the often look across the Pacific Ocean and think they
5. knowledge is tied to many attributes of
expansionary Soviet communism. Only two problem due to the Executive (the President know an awful lot more about how the world
“good” citizenship.”
years before the 1964 survey, NATO and the or Governor) or to the legislature? Or does the works than voters in the United States. Judged
Source: Delli Carpini, M. X. (2005). An overview of
Soviet Union came within a whisker’s breadth problem cycle back to the Federal Reserve central on outcomes, well, New Zealand certainly seems
the state of citizens’ knowledge about politics. In M. of nuclear war over Soviet intermediate-range bank? Knowing who to blame requires a basic far more functional. But voter knowledge among
S. McKinney, L. L. Kaid, D. G. Bystrom, & D. B. missile installations in Cuba – the Cuban knowledge of civics. Kiwis is a bit of a worry.
Carlin (Eds.), Communicating politics: Engaging the Missile Crisis. Thinking that the Soviet Union
public in democratic life (pp. 27-40). New York: Peter
Lang. Retrieved from http://repository.upenn.edu/
was a part of the Western military alliance American voters struggle even with that simple The country’s best source of data on voter
asc_papers/53 designed to contain and oppose it seems a task. Compared to expert academic political knowledge and preferences, the New Zealand
substantial error. Similarly, and as worryingly, scientists, voters are far more likely to attribute Election Study, remains relatively underexplored.
only 22% of Americans knew, in the mid-1980s, outcomes to politicians – over-rewarding them in But a look through the data provides cause
Michael Delli Carpini’s survey in the box above that standing US military doctrine was to good times, and over-punishing them in bad times. for concern, as do the results of a survey
is sobering reading for those agreeing with use nuclear weapons if the Soviets attacked Worse, they are likely to diffuse responsibility across commissioned by the New Zealand Initiative to
American statesman James Madison’s warning Western Europe. a broad range of governmental institutions rather directly assess Kiwis’ knowledge of basic civics.
18 DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK THE NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE 19Survey says? knew the Party vote determines the composition 2020 New Zealand Initiative survey The full set of questions were:
of Parliament and that the political party with the • Can you name all the political parties in
So, how much of what Kiwi voters should know most votes is likely to get the most seats under The New Zealand Initiative put together nine the current New Zealand Parliament?
about democracy do they really know? MMP.21 And a 2008 Colmar-Brunton poll found basic civics questions and commissioned a phone • Who is the current Minister of Education?
only 30% of respondents understood MMP’s dual- interview poll of 1000 Kiwis over two weeks in • Who is the current Minister for the
The New Zealand Election Survey (NZES) entry threshold into Parliament while barely half January, with four supplementary questions. Environment?
is the country’s most comprehensive regular recognised the Party Vote as the more important.22 • Which parties in the current New Zealand
survey of voter knowledge. The 2017 survey of Many respondents considered themselves to be Parliament voted for the Zero Carbon Bill
3455 Kiwis showed clear deficiencies in the basic The 2008 Election Survey provided a greater range either very well informed (27%) or well informed which passed in late 2019?
understanding of civics. Unfortunately, it did not of questions but also displayed dismal results:23 (40%) in deciding how to vote in the 2020 • Under MMP, in what ways can parties
ask many questions that can be benchmarked • 84% knew that Labour was in the prior election. A further 22% considered themselves gain a seat in Parliament?
against a textbook. government; somewhat informed, 6% not very informed and • Some people say that the best people
• 81% knew that the term of Parliament 4% not at all informed. from all parties should come together and
About five respondents in eight correctly is not four years; form a permanent, all-party government.
recognised that the party vote is more important • 68% recognised that enrolling to vote is Figure 1: How informed do you think you are in Do you agree?
than the electorate vote in determining the compulsory; deciding how to vote in the next election? • Does New Zealand have a military
composition of Parliament. About 25% viewed • 55% could identify the correct thresholds alliance with the United Kingdom?
Not at all informed 4%
both as equally important, 10% thought the for entry into Parliament under MMP; • Which countries form the Five Eyes Alliance?
electorate vote was more important and just • 53% thought the Party Vote is most Not very informed 6%
• In applying the law, do New Zealand courts
over 5% did not know. important in the composition of Parliament; have to take into account the political
• 36% agreed that Treasury is not mainly Somewhat informed 22% intentions of the Government of the day?
It can be difficult to punish or reward incumbent responsible for interest rates; Well informed 40% • Can you name the three branches of
political parties for their performance if an • 28% knew that non-citizens can vote. government?
individual does not know who the MPs are. Very well informed 27% • Some countries have a strong leader who
According to the survey, 20% of respondents could The same survey showed 27% of respondents who 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
doesn’t have to bother with a Parliament
not recall which parties formed the Government support a return to First Past the Post also prefer or elections. Is this model a very good,
after the 2014 election (the answer was the National coalition Governments – which are less likely 62% said they read newspapers, news websites or good, bad or very bad model?
Party, the Māori Party, United Future and ACT). under FPP. On the other hand, 27% of MMP magazines daily. About 22% followed the news • How would you feel about the idea of
Worryingly, 28% said the National Party was not supporters thought a party with 40% of the vote several times a week, 10% less than once a week having experts, not elected politicians,
involved while 7% thought Labour helped to form should receive more than 40% of the seats while and 6% said they never read the news. make decisions according to what they
it.20 One in four knew that both ACT and the 37% said New Zealand has too many political think is best for the country? Would
Maori Party helped to form the Government while parties. And it seems unlikely that they were Figure 2: How often do you consume written this be a very good, good, bad or very
over half thought neither party was involved. considering the minor difference between overall political news such as newspapers, bad model?
party vote share and the share of seats caused when news, websites or magazines? • Do you think that democracy is the best
Ideology can be a shortcut heuristic for voters who some parties receive party list votes but no seats form of Government?
do not follow parties’ policies closely. Yet only in Parliament. Preferences between MMP and Never 6%
71% of respondents correctly placed Labour to the First Past the Post are neither right nor wrong. Less than
10%
The full data is reproduced below, but some
once a week
political left of the National Party. About 18% could But many people seemed happy with a system of the highlights are worth teasing out. For
Several times
not place one or both parties on the axis at all, just very different from their claimed preferences. 22% instance, a worryingly high number of people
a week
under 7% said the parties’ ideologies were identical Daily 62%
(29%) could not accurately name the five political
and 4% placed Labour to the right of National. Unfortunately, the 2017 NZES had few questions parties present in Parliament. Less than half of
about basic civics knowledge, which is why 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% respondents (46%) identified both ways parties
Poor civics knowledge among Kiwis is not the New Zealand Initiative commissioned its can enter Parliament under MMP. To put this in
new. The 2005 NZES showed almost a fifth of own survey. The Initiative’s survey then asked about the perspective, New Zealand’s first MMP election
respondents did not know Labour was a part of current composition of Parliament, basic civics was held in 1996 and the 2020 election will be
the prior Labour-led Government. Also, about half The results are not encouraging. and general political knowledge. the ninth held under that system.24
20 DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK THE NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE 21Figure 3: Can you name all the political parties in the current NZ Parliament? Figure 7: Which parties in the current NZ Parliament voted for the Zero Carbon Bill
which passed in late 2019?
Unsure/refuse 1%
No – can’t name, or got some wrong Unsure/refuse 13%
29%
or missing
Can’t name, or got some wrong
Yes – correcly name National, Labour, or missing 65%
NZ First, Greens and ACT 69%
Correctly name National, Labour,
22%
NZ First and Greens
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Figure 4: Under MMP, in what ways can parties gain a seat in Parliament?24
Unsure/refuse 15%
Figure 8: Some people say that the best people from all parties should come together and form a
Incorrect 14% permanent, all-party government. Do you agree?
Partially correct –
25% Unsure/refuse 8%
named one method, not both
Correct – win an electorate seat or 46% No 62%
gaining at least 5% of the vote
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Yes 30%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Some Ministers always get more of the limelight Unfortunately, the Initiative’s survey only
but connecting a name to the correct portfolio recorded if respondents gave the right answer.
was difficult for some. About a third correctly said Next time, it will add a follow-up question to ask Figure 9: How do you feel about the idea of having experts, not elected politicians,
Chris Hipkins is the present Minister of Education about the party affiliation of each Minister. make decisions according to what they think is best for the country? Is this model a very good,
while only 5% knew David Parker is the Minister good, bad or very bad model?
for the Environment (46% were unsure). The current Government made the Zero Carbon
Bill an important part of its policy agenda. At Very bad 24%
Knowing who is Minister of what portfolio the close of 2019, the National Party decided Bad 34%
may be useful in a pub quiz. If the policy area to join in supporting the Bill. However, when
winds up being important, and a citizen wants asked which parties voted for that bill, only Neutral 13%
to write to the Minister about it, names are easily 22% pointed to Labour, NZ First, Greens, and Good 18%
searched online. But it can matter in overall National. If National hoped to gain support by
assessments of who to credit, or blame, for voting for the Bill, the survey suggests few voters Very good 6%
policy. If voters strongly support or oppose an noticed. Come the election, some voters may 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
environmental policy, knowing if the Minister either punish or reward the National Party if
for the Environment is a Labour Party MP or they incorrectly think it opposed the Bill.
Green Party MP matters. Figure 10: Some countries have a strong leader who doesn’t have to bother with a parliament or
elections. Is this model a very good, good, bad or very bad model?
Figure 5: Who is the current Minister Figure 6: Who is the current Minister
of Education? for the Environment? Very bad 53%
Unsure/refuse 46% Bad 31%
Unsure/refuse 38%
Incorrect – someone else Neutral 5%
Incorrect – someone else 31% 50%
Correct – David Parker 5% Good 4%
Correct – Chris Hipkins 31%
Very good 0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
22 DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK THE NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE 23A strong majority of respondents (87%) agreed may appeal to would-be technocrats, results may Figure 13: Does NZ have a military alliance with the United Kingdom?
that democracy is the best form of government. be less than desirable.26
But 30% also supported the idea that “the best Unsure/refuse 20%
people from all parties should come together and Taking a wider view on how New Zealand’s
No 24%
form a permanent, all-party government” – a democratic system works, respondents were asked to
notion rather antithetical to modern democracy. name the three branches of government (legislature, Yes 56%
executive and judiciary). Only 12% could do so.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Another positive sign was that 84% said if a And 59% knew that courts do not have to consider
strong-man leader abolished elections, that would the political intentions of the Government of the
be either “bad” or “very bad.” However, 4% kind day when making legal decisions. Figure 14: Which countries form the Five Eyes Alliance?
of liked the idea (see “Lizardman’s constant” in
endnote 20). Respondents were more receptive In New Zealand's Parliamentary system, the Unsure/refuse 20%
(24%) to the idea that experts rather than elected Courts can deem policy to be inconsistent
No 41%
politicians should make decisions according to with the Bill of Rights but cannot overturn Correctly name United States,
what they think is best for the country, while legislation since Parliament is supreme. Judicial United Kingdom, Canada, 38%
Australia and New Zealand
58% viewed it as either a bad or very bad model. decisions about whether legislation aligns with
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
constitutional provisions serve as bulwarks only
The political system does outsource some to the extent that voters notice the findings
decisions to experts. Pharmac’s experts decide and reassess their views of the legislation – and so-called “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing pact. Education or the Minister for the Environment
which drugs should be funded, within the the parties in support of it – in light of those Only 28% could name New Zealand, Australia, to tally a score out of seven rather than out of
amount of money allocated by Parliament. It is findings. Not even knowing the basic structure Canada, the US and the UK. nine, the results are grim.
better for Pharmac to decide which treatments of the government makes that task difficult.
are cost-effective than for Parliament to make While there may not be direct implications The survey data also shows which demographic
those decisions based on which patients are most Another finding in the survey, which may for policy or democratic accountability, characteristics were most associated with higher
politically compelling. An independent Reserve interest the government of the United Kingdom, overestimating the likelihood that the UK would scores, adjusting for all other demographic
Bank makes decisions about monetary policy. It is that more than half of Kiwis, 56%, believe necessarily come to New Zealand’s aid may lead characteristics. Men, older generations,
is plausible that more decisions could be handed New Zealand has a military alliance with the UK. voters to support defence or foreign policies that city-dwellers, university-leavers, daily media
to independent agencies, within bounds set by Another 20% were unsure. Respondents were less they would not otherwise. consumers and folk in lower decile areas scored
Parliament.25 But while a generalised technocracy confident about which countries are part of the higher in the survey, adjusting for everything
Kiwis maintained strong support for democracy. else. (see Table 1A in the Appendix).
Figure 11: Can you name the three branches of government? But knowledge of the country’s electoral system
is weak. The average number of correct answers Education had the largest effect on knowledge.
Unsure/refuse 40% on the nine basic civics questions was 2.9. Even Those with a bachelor’s degree scored about
without questions about who is the Minister of 1.5 more points than those without a diploma.
Incorrect 45%
Correct – Legislature (or Parliament),
Executive, Judiciary (or Courts)
12% Table 1: Educational attainment across political parties
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Educational Green Labour NZF National Other Unsure Total
attainment
None 0 57 6 40 1 14 118
Figure 12: In applying the law, do NZ courts have to take into account the political intentions of the
Government of the day? School Qualification 4 79 12 94 10 16 215
Trade / Diploma 8 98 11 113 5 37 272
No 59%
Degree 30 128 12 123 16 52 361
Yes 22% Unsure 0 7 2 4 0 21 34
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Total 42 369 43 374 32 140 1,000
24 DEMOCRACY IN THE DARK THE NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE 25You can also read
