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Leaders in Commercial Real Estate Finance INVESTORS North America Public and Private Pension Plans Europe Insurance Companies $16.9 Billion Middle East Ultra-High-Net-Worth in AUM 1 Asia Family Offices Asset Managers www.ACORECapital.com ©2020 ACORE Capital. Registered trade/service marks are the property of ACORE Capital. All rights reserved. 1Assets under management” are comprised of a number of components, including certain subordinate debt investments and capital commitments related thereto, a whole loan facility commitment, and certain other whole loan investments and senior debt investments. Certain assets under management are managed on a non-discretionary basis for an institutional investor, while others are managed on a discretionary basis for other institutional investors. Figures include both funded and committed unfunded amounts, as of 12.31.19.
Contents How to contact us Senior Editor, Real Estate Jonathan Brasse jonathan.b@peimedia.com, +44 20 7566 4278 Editor Evelyn Lee evelyn.l@peimedia.com, +44 20 3640 7511 Debt Senior Special Projects Editor Graeme Kerr ISSN 1558–7177 • MAY 2020 graeme.k@peimedia.com, +44 20 3862 7491 Special Projects Editor James Linacre james.l@peimedia.com, +44 20 7566 5465 Senior Reporters Arshiya Khullar akhullar@peimedia.com, +1 212 796 8324 Insight The RED 50 Kyle Campbell kyle.c@peimedia.com, +1 646 545 4428 Reporter Christie Ou 2 Real estate debt news timeline 16 Capital raising steps up a gear christie.o@peimedia.com, +852 2153 3247 Contributors A year in the industry This year’s debt fund ranking reflects Mark Cooper, Daniel Cunningham, a market with more capital than Daniel Humphrey Rodriguez, Jesse Koppi, Stuart Watson EDITOR’S LETTER before and reveals a new top player Managing Editor, Production: Mike Simlett The more things change... 4 in the sector. Head of Production: Greg Russell Production Editors: Daniel Blackburn, Adam Koppeser Copy Editors: Eric Fish, Nicholas Manderson Analysis Art Director: Mike Scorer Head of Design: Miriam Vysna Senior Designer: Lee Southey 5 Debt’s first true test Designers: Denise Berjak, Pio Blanco Head of Marketing Solutions, Real Assets Group: Covid-19 presents challenges but Nick Hayes nick.h@peimedia.com, +44 20 7566 5448 disciplined lending provides support Marketing Solutions Manager: Annie Liu ARA Venn on market momentum annie.l@peimedia.com, + 852 2153 3843 Subscriptions and reprints Paul House and ARA AM’s subscriptions@peimedia.com Mark Ebbinghaus discuss debt Customer Service opportunities 6 customerservices@peimedia.com Editorial Director: Philip Borel Director, Digital Product Development: Debt’s new frontiers Amanda Janis Seeking fresh pockets of value 9 Director of Research and Analytics: Dan Gunner Managing Director, Americas: Colm Gilmore Yardi Systems on data-driven Managing Director, Asia: Chris Petersen Chief Commercial Officer: Paul McLean decisions Data Chris Barbier considers risk 30 Chief Executive: Tim McLoughlin management in tough times 12 Virus won’t stop debt market Fundraising dips Edmond de Rothschild fund to But data show large funds continue For subscription information visit launch despite covid-19 15 to be raised perenews.com Investors have RE debt appetite Funds aim high Survey results show institutional Funds in market are seeking to raise demand for more risk 29 almost $55 billion 32 May 2020 • Debt 1
Insight A year in real estate debt Managers tested new strategies, ventured into new regions – and more than one targeted a billion-euro fundraise Amundi raises €1bn French asset manager Amundi raised more than €1 billion for its first real estate debt strategy, which had launched in May. At the time, the fund had deployed €180 million across six loans in France, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy, with an average LTV of 58 percent and a blended spread of around 230bps. The loans were issued against a variety of asset classes including offices, retail and hospitality. APR 2019 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Generali launches Bain forms debt JV debut fund Bain Capital formed a half-billion- Generali Real Estate dollar venture to acquire distressed launched its first real estate debt with a New York vehicle to invest lender. The Boston-based group is in commercial real allocating capital to the partnership estate debt across from its credit platform’s distressed and Europe. Generali special situations strategy. Bain was far raised about €1 from the only firm interested in non- billion from the performing loans, with real estate funds group’s insurance that included distressed debt as part of companies, with their mandate closing on $18.75 billion another €500 million through H1. expected to be raised from third- APG ventures into real estate debt in APAC party investors over Pension fund manager APG Asset Management the next couple entered into a partnership with Australian of years. Generali commercial real estate debt manager MaxCap Real Estate Debt Group to invest up to A$600 million ($418 million; Investment Fund €370 million) in the sector, marking the investor’s will invest in senior entry into the asset class in Asia-Pacific. APG made property loans across a A$300 million initial commitment to the JV and Europe. can re-up to a total commitment of A$600 million. 2 PERE • May 2020
Insight Chenavari seeks LaSalle targets €1bn £350m for beds- LaSalle Investment focused fund Management set its sights Chenavari Investment on raising €1 billion for a Managers was raising fourth mezzanine lending capital for a new debt fund vehicle in its European predominantly focused on property debt fund the private rented sector program, LaSalle Real and student housing Estate Debt Strategies across the UK and Spain. IV, which would be the Chenavari set a target largest fund yet in the Multifamily breakthrough targeted of £350 million ($458 series. It would also be Qualitas launched Australia’s first dedicated million; €394 million) the first in the series to built-to-rent debt fund, Qualitas Build-to-Rent for the vehicle by final be euro-denominated, Impact Fund, in a bid to tap into the country’s close in September 2020. reflecting growing emerging multifamily sector. The Melbourne- Chenavari Real Estate demand from continental based manager plans to raise A$1 billion ($659 Fund III will originate European investors and million; €607 million) from institutional investors. predominantly stretched LaSalle’s increasing focus The vehicle is expected to provide financing to senior debt and profit- on continental European build-to-rent projects in major cities in Australia participating whole loans. lending deals. via senior loans to developers. OCT NOV DEC JAN 2020 FEB MAR CBRE GI expands into European debt ICG focusing on ICG raises £500m Property investment manager CBRE Global Investors made alternatives first close a significant push into the European real estate debt market ICG-Longbow is The London-based with the acquisition of London-based credit specialist deploying its fifth asset manager Laxfield Capital by parent CBRE Group. Laxfield has £818 UK property debt announced its latest million of assets under management in the UK. For CBRE vehicle, which closed round of successful GI it represents an expansion of existing real estate credit in November after fundraising for its strategies. It has been investing in debt in the Americas raising £928 million. real estate lending since 2009. The focus will be on program with a first asset classes that are close of its fourth expected to benefit senior debt vehicle from demographic or raising £500 million structural tailwinds that of investor capital. are weakly correlated ICG-Longbow to the economic Senior Debt cycle. UK Real Estate Programme Vintage Debt Investments IV is expected to V will originate reach a final close predominantly whole in the final quarter loans secured against of 2020, with a UK commercial hard-cap set at £1 property. billion. May 2020 • Debt 3
Insight Editor’s letter The more things New York 130 West 42nd Street Suite 450 change… New York NY 10036 T: +1 212 633 1919 London 100 Wood Street London EC2V 7AN T: +44 20 7566 5444 James Linacre Hong Kong james.l@peimedia.com 19F On Hing Building 1 On Hing Terrace Central Hong Kong T: +852 2153 3240 S PERE uddenly, coronavirus has changed everything. Or has it? Covid-19 isn’t Published 10 times a year by PEI Media. To find out more about stopping firms such as Edmond de Rothschild from launching a real estate PEI Media visit thisisPEI.com debt fund according to its original timetable. And while the pandemic may © PEI Media 2020 well represent the first true test of Europe’s private real estate debt fund industry since it emerged in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, conservative lending No statement in this magazine is to be construed as a recommendation practices during that time ought to mean real estate debt fund managers prove to buy or sell securities. Neither stable throughout the current crisis. this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced or transmitted As in all times of change, where some see challenges, others will see opportunities. “ As in all times in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including Debt funds are likely to receive a boost from of change, photocopying, recording, or by any information storage or shrinking bank appetite. Commercial real estate debt is also able to offer the lower risk where some retrieval system, without the prior permission of the publisher. strategies which investors may desire after see challenges, Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, the publisher and contributors accept this period of volatility. Real estate debt was undergoing others will see no responsibility for the accuracy of the content in this magazine. some notable changes even without the opportunities ” Readers should also be aware that external contributors may coronavirus complication. Our second represent firms that may have an interest in companies and/or annual global private real estate debt fund capital raising ranking – the RED 50 their securities mentioned in their – shows the largest managers have been able to raise even more capital. contributions herein. And while many of those managers are the usual suspects, there are also new Cancellation policy You can entrants to shake things up. For one, Blackstone is no longer top of the pile. cancel your subscription at any time during the first three months New York does remain the leading debt fundraising center, however, and of subscribing and you will North American firms continue to dominate the RED 50. With $156.9 billion receive a refund of 70 percent raised, and some 62.4 percent of that by North America-based firms, the extent of the total annual subscription fee. Thereafter, no refund is of the change does, perhaps, remain limited. available. Any cancellation request If other managers follow Edmond de Rothschild’s lead and proceed with their needs to be sent in writing to the subscriptions departments fund launches as planned, then it could be another busy year for the market. It (subscriptionenquiries@peimedia. all depends on the extent to which things really will change. Because sometimes, com) in either our London or New York offices. the more things change, the more they stay the same. Printed by Stephens & George Ltd stephensandgeorge.co.uk James Linacre 4 PERE • May 2020
Analysis Private real estate debt is facing its ‘first true test’ Disciplined lending throughout the cycle should stand the non-bank lending space in good stead, writes Daniel Cunningham T he covid-19 crisis rep- Wallace notes that debt specialists the situation. Wallace explains: “Activ- resents the first major should treat data from the listed prop- ity levels will be lower than in previous test of Europe’s private erty sector with caution: “It can hint quarters and the market will be shallow real estate debt industry at the differential between sectors and for some time. Many on the borrower since it emerged in ear- risk types. But there is always enhanced and lender sides will take a wait-and- nest during the current volatility on the listed side, so we need see approach. Some deals will continue property cycle, the global co-head of to be careful about translating falls on to go ahead, although it is too early to alternatives research and strategy at the listed side to the debt side of the say on what terms. The pipeline of new asset management company DWS tells market.” deals is likely to be lower. sister publication Real Estate Capital. “There is an expectation that mar- Simon Wallace says the alternative Better prepared gins will increase, although we will see property lending market has experi- Europe’s real estate debt market is slow differentials between sectors. Lower enced strong growth in the last decade, as lenders and borrowers take stock of loan-to-values will be a common re- but that conservative lending practices sponse among lenders.” ought to mean real estate debt fund However, Wallace also says that the managers prove stable throughout the real estate industry entered the current current crisis. He adds that it could crisis in much better shape than it did prove to be a catalyst for further growth during previous market shocks: “The as investors seek a haven for capital. industry has been disciplined on the Speaking about the outlook for Eu- leverage side, and there is low vacancy rope’s real estate debt markets in light “Some deals will in most sectors, aside from retail, and of the coronavirus pandemic, Wallace less development in the pipeline.” admits it is too early for lenders to have continue to go An increase in loan defaults is to be a clear view: “It is exceptionally diffi- expected, though the extent is “very cult to have an understanding of where ahead, although difficult” to ascertain. “Hopefully, the pricing and values are right now.” it is too early to say industry has learned lessons about how Although Q1 real estate market to deal with such situations,” he says. data in April will hint at how property on what terms. The On the longer-term view, Wallace values are shifting, Wallace warns that notes that the consensus among eco- valuers will not yet have clarity due to a pipeline of new deals nomic forecasts is for a strong upswing lack of transaction evidence. in the aftermath of the crisis. “We will need to look beyond the is likely to be lower” “Yes, we’re experiencing severe dis- Q1 data, and it will be important to ruption now, but this is a long-term communicate as much as possible with SIMON WALLACE asset class,” he says. “We need to look valuers, brokers and industry analysts,” DWS beyond the next six months to the next he says. five or 10 years.” ■ May 2020 • Debt 5
Analysis K E Y N O T E I N T E R V I E W Debt opportunities, risk premia and market momentum Growing investor interest and increasing market momentum in real estate debt have prompted a new partnership, say ARA Venn’s Paul House and ARA Asset Management’s Mark Ebbinghaus Global expansion is on the menu for demand on the credit side. Some of SPONSOR ARA Asset Management, which is ac- our investors actually prefer to invest ARA VENN tive in 100 cities in 28 countries and has in debt, but we had never really been been investing in European real estate able to cover that. So, we have broad- equity for some time. However, the at ARA Venn, discuss the opportunities ened out our expertise within the wider Singapore-based group has been look- on offer in European real estate debt. platform, bringing people on that have ing for product line expansion, which a deep experience in credit, and this led it to join forces with Venn Partners, a London-based European real estate credit specialist to create ARA Venn. Q What were the drivers behind this partnership? Mark Ebbinghaus: Our move into new partnership is a significant step forward. ARA has taken a majority stake in Europe was very much investor-led Paul House: Our business commenced Venn and will work closely with ARA and we have seen significant quantities in 2009 and our investment manage- Venn to grow the scale and scope of of capital progressively deployed, not ment efforts began in 2012. Since then, its operations. Mark Ebbinghaus, ARA only to the UK but continental Europe we have built a business with about £5 Asset Management’s European chief over the last five years. We have seen a billion ($6.4 billion; €5.8 billion) of as- executive, and Paul House, managing lot of interest in Europe and the UK sets under management and committed partner and head of the CRE business from our Asian investors and a lot of capital, purely focused on real estate 6 PERE • May 2020
Analysis credit in both commercial and consum- er residential areas. What we noted in our own capital raising is that firms like us have been in an increasingly competitive market for capital as investors look to rationalize the number of managers they deal with while still wanting to access a choice of different products, so we were looking to align ourselves with a partner who would help us expand and with whom we would have a good cultural fit. As ARA looks to grow in Europe, we think we are in a good position to help foster that growth. ME: I’ve known the Venn team for over five years and we have developed a Q How will investors respond to the increasingly volatile environment driven by the reaction to covid-19? ME: We think at least in the near term there is going to be relative close relationship and understand each polarization between those investors that are proactive and those that other well. We tend to think about are reactive, it is likely that there are going to be few leaders and more things quite deeply and for us the cul- followers in these uncertain times, decision making is also likely to be ture, alignment and really wanting to pushed out for many. work together is critical. It’s not just a It is in our view likely that the market will continually evaluate and numbers game. eventually ‘come to a landing’ on the competing impacts of, on the one hand, as to whether we are in a near term (temporary), medium term or Q What characterizes the transactions you are targeting? more permanent change in risk premia environment, requiring a higher rate of return for a given level of risk, leading to asset pricing contraction pressures, and on the other hand, the impact of what is likely to be an PH: On the CRE debt side, we are unprecedented level of monetary and fiscal expansion leading to asset raising capital for our latest fund for pricing stimulus and lower required rates of return pressures. deployment in the UK and Europe, We feel that participating in the markets via debt is likely to receive supported by ARA. We are looking for strong levels of support, particularly as bank appetite contracts and those mid to upper single digit total returns, with firepower are likely to be well positioned to optimize performance. predominantly from whole loans but Investors are likely to support trusted managers with strong sponsorship with the ability to take some junior po- and deep market insight that have scale and scope to capture market sitions as well. opportunities. We are targeting mid-sized private equity or institutional-sized family of- PH: On a more lasting note, the extreme volatility that investors are fices who are investing in value-add experiencing in the global capital markets – in both the equity and the debt real estate opportunities. We are able capital markets, is happening post a long stretch of relatively low volatility to go higher in loan to value than bank and consistent moves higher in asset prices. The sharp volatility experience lenders, as we typically try not to com- from the global pandemic can lead to investors seeking lower risk strategies pete with banks given their pricing ad- that are available in the private debt markets of which CRE debt is part of. vantage at lower LTV loans. The types In addition, the public policy reaction that is currently underway – of deals we would look to do are often being a decline in central bank interest rates plus higher fiscal spend – is a with some form of value-add aspects. trend that spells of continued low interest rates in sovereign debt is likely We are looking at a building in to spill over to corporate debt. With the backdrop of high volatility, the Spain right now, located in the CBD opportunities that emerge from the dislocation plays to the benefit of of Madrid. It has an existing tenant private funds that we manage as we retain the ability to pivot to capture the but the building could use some im- best investments as they emerge. Investors with the memory of the 2008 provements. Some capital expenditure crisis will recall that post that event, significant opportunities were captured will improve its sustainability rating in the years that followed. as well as its aesthetic quality and add May 2020 • Debt 7
Analysis “The covid-19 crisis value for the client, either through in- that it is difficult to predict timing as creased rent or a new tenant. The loan is such a major and this is more in the hands of the medi- size also fits neatly into the fund target cal profession and in the public policy of between €10 million to €50 million, unique event that it arena. What is happening economical- where we see less competition from ly is that the functioning of the market low cost capital providers. is difficult to predict is being severely disrupted and we are We also have a residential lending timing” witnessing a sharp decline in economic business in the UK private rented sec- activity levels. tor, which would be called multifami- Whilst we were late cycle before this PAUL HOUSE ly residential in other markets, where event, this unprecedented interruption we originate and manage a £3.5 billion in economic activity will indeed have PRS lending scheme for the UK gov- an impact, and in our view, it will be ernment. To date, we have lent a little correlated to how long the market is over a billion in this mandate and we are disrupted. The longer the stagnation looking to deploy another £2.5 billion period, the deeper the economic im- over the next few years. For this type of pact is likely to be. assets, we would lend on an LTV of say If we are able to commence trading 60-65 percent. We get a government again in the summer this sharp correc- guarantee on the bonds that we issue tion will reset economic points (for ex- and then we go into the institutional ample, rental rates in the occupational marketplace and fund those positions. market, or capitalization rates for the So, there is a policy angle, which is to Over the next couple of years, we transactional market) however with the support a nascent industry. can broaden out the offer in the plat- short closing we would not foresee a We see potential to develop form, augmented by our capital part- massive move on pre-closing levels as non-government investment mandates ners and our public market experience. the market re-opens. The drag of three in this asset class given its growth pros- For example, ARA Dunedin, which was or four months of inactivity will have pects and the deep technical expertise set up in July 2019 to invest in and man- time impact, but occupational markets and market knowledge that we have age real estate assets in the UK, will be should resume where they left off and gained through our work with the able to co-operate with ARA Venn to the markets that were already under Government program. the benefit of both organizations. pressure, retail for instance, will be Given the size of ARA, scale is crit- more impacted than those that were ME: We see three or four strong prod- ical and, as we all have limited band- trading well before the crisis. uct lines at ARA Venn and we are re- width, we have to focus our energies on However, if the market close period viewing broader opportunities. In ad- scalable opportunities, whether they extends or the return is muted by way dition to the products Paul mentioned, are platforms or products. We believe of continued policy moves to suppress ARA Venn is very strong in the RMBS ARA Venn and the debt arena is abso- the virus transmission (which has a market through their Dutch residential lutely something which is scalable. I drag effect on the economy), then the program, so we will naturally look at think we have the right ingredients to financial cost of this crisis will deepen, the commercial mortgage-backed secu- really leverage a platform which has and there will be a reset in asset values rities market too and look at other gov- had a great start in life, towards bigger and the risk premium required by capi- ernment programs outside UK PRS. and broader initiatives. tal. In this case, we could see some dis- Following this transaction and our tress in the system. current contracted dealflow, we will have some S$90 billion ($63 billion; €58 billion) of real estate AUM worldwide, Q What do you think will be the impact of the current global pandemic on the It is in these times of heighted vola- tility, firms such as ARA Venn are well positioned to use our skill set to re-en- with some half that figure in the public European debt market? ter the market in a timely way and have markets. We are reviewing a whole host PH: Right now, the news flow and mar- the double benefit of prudent but high of opportunities and we will take them ket hope is for a return to a functioning return investments for our investor cli- one at a time, but we think public credit market by summer 2020 – the covid-19 ents and be part of a market that will be funds are quite an exciting space. crisis is such a major and unique event re-establishing itself. n 8 PERE • May 2020
Analysis Debt exploring new frontiers A s real estate markets Capital providers and debt that offer a measure of downside around the world enter protection.” He estimates that around the late stages of a pro- their managers are 80 percent of that capital was allocated longed cycle and brace seeking fresh pockets to the value-add and opportunistic end themselves for the im- of the real estate debt spectrum, target- pact of the coronavirus of value, writes ing double-digit returns. epidemic, investment in real estate debt, Stuart Watson “The sheer weight of capital allo- generally regarded as a lower-risk strat- cated to enhanced return strategies has egy than equity investing, might be ex- created a really dramatic spread com- pected to come to the fore. fundraising activity. “We have seen a pression, and so managers are now find- However, while managers report proliferation of new funds in the US – ing it very difficult to replicate that kind that demand for such investments re- 150 over the last three years and $100 of return without pushing up the risk mains high, PERE figures show global billion-plus of capital allocated to cred- curve. Many of the LPs that allocated to fundraising for the strategy plunged it,” says Todd Sammann, head of credit those strategies are concerned that the in 2019 to $13.7 billion in 29 vehicles, strategies at CBRE Global Investors. risks being underwritten are not being less than half 2018’s $28.6 billion in 54 “That was motivated by a broad view fairly compensated.” funds. In 2017, $42.9 billion was raised that the upside on real estate equity in- Those LPs will therefore be less across 72 strategies. vestment was likely to be muted for the likely to commit capital to high-yield- Debt has always been a much smaller foreseeable future, so it made sense to ing strategies, and that tendency may slice of the real estate investing market focus on current yielding strategies in account for at least part of the slow- than equity. Nevertheless, the level of down in fundraising. Andrew Radkie- global annual commercial real estate wicz, global head of debt strategies at debt origination held steady at just un- PGIM Real Estate, believes that core- der $1 trillion over the past three years, plus lending offers a better risk-adjusted reaching $970 billion in 2017, $993 bil- return than value-add debt investing in lion in 2018 and $971 billion last year. the US at present: “In core-plus we are It appears that for the last two years writing loans at 75 percent loan-to-val- a shrinking group of investors has fa- ue, conservatively leveraging the vehicle vored debt fund vehicles as a means to to enhance returns without increasing access that market. Why has fundrais- risk too much, and at the moment that ing apparently slowed? And in a market is producing a 6-7 percent return in a where commingled funds appear to play market that is deep and liquid.” a diminishing role, which debt strategies CBRE Global Investors’ Sammann are still attracting capital? concurs: “The core-plus part of the market is not subject to the same com- Pushed up the risk curve petitive pressures. There are proba- The US has historically made up Higher returns from development: the London bly half a dozen meaningful funds in Olympia redevelopment (pictured here and the lion’s share of the market, and it on the following pages) is being financed by a the lightly transitional space – assets has remained the principal focus of loan from Goldman Sachs that don’t qualify for bank or CMBS May 2020 • Debt 9
Analysis financing, but where the risk profile is so light as not to necessitate the kind of spreads that are being charged for those much more highly operationally risky value-add strategies. That is where real value lies in US credit.” Meanwhile, at the low-risk end of the market, pension vehicles and insurance companies are responding to rock-bot- tom interest rates by reallocating capital from fixed-income to real estate debt, says Jack Gay, global head of commer- cial real estate debt at Nuveen Real Es- tate: “In the continued lower-for-longer interest rate environment it is harder for them to meet their target returns. If instead of buying treasury securities or investment-grade corporate bonds they move some of that allocation into a senior whole loan mortgage strategy it gives them some yield pickup – perhaps not all that dramatic, but a premium over public securities.” Such investors are less likely to place capital in commingled funds. “We are looking at strategies that would club investors up in that senior whole loans space, or in some cases the mandates would be large enough to do them as a separate account,” adds Gay. The view from Europe On the other side of the Atlantic, Al- lianz Real Estate, the real estate asset management arm of Munich-headquar- tered insurer Allianz Group, is seeking to harness the same trend. It is inviting like-minded third-party investors, prin- cipally pensions and other insurance companies seeking yield to match their liabilities, to participate in its lending platform. It places mainly senior debt on prime real estate with an element of yield-enhancing lending to build- to-core and manage-to-core sponsors. “Relative returns still look quite attrac- tive, especially in what is once again an extremely low interest rate environment where bond levels are below zero,” says head of European debt Roland Fuchs. However, he adds that lower interest rates have impacted absolute returns. “Investors in senior core and core-plus 10 PERE • May 2020
Analysis been getting a fairly significant currency pickup, and many see Europe as at an earlier stage in the cycle.” A number of European investors are showing strong interest in Australia. “For a long time that market was limited to the Australian banks,” says Kavanau. “But stronger regulation introduced in the last couple of years has opened it up for smart capital to go in and make real- ly excellent risk-adjusted returns.” The largely untapped Chinese mar- ket could offer great potential for real estate debt investors, suggests Gretch- en Yuan, executive director at CBRE Capital Advisors Asia: “Between 2020 and 2022, Chinese developers will need to refinance 10 trillion yuan [$1.4 tril- lion; €1.3 trillion] worth of debt. This will provide opportunities for investors to offer development loans or junior and mezzanine debt, and distressed and NPL managers will be in a favorable position to deploy capital. However, investors have been having difficulties lending strategies have had to adapt to financing, where it can generate higher in identifying and accessing institutions the reality that in these times you can- returns by staking large sums to back which can serve as a local platform with not expect a return at the same level as complex high-quality projects, such as fiduciary responsibility and can provide equity by flipping it into debt, as the the £875 million ($1 billion; €946 mil- consistent performance.” first movers into the space did.” lion) loan that it agreed to provide for The behavior of cross-border capital At present the high yielding debt the redevelopment of London’s Olym- in the coming months will likely be af- space in Europe is more compelling pia exhibition center in March. fected by the covid-19 crisis. than that in the US, where the weight “I think we will see the trend contin- “I felt there was going to be renewed of capital has driven down returns, ar- ue where debt fund managers are real- interest in overseas debt markets from gues Richard Spencer, managing di- ly being paid for their origination and US investors, but I am not sure that is rector at Goldman Sachs Merchant underwriting capability,” says Spencer. going to be the case today,” says Dale Banking. Goldman raised $6.4 billion “Sectors where you are just showing Lattanzio, managing partner at real es- for Broad Street Real Estate Credit up with the money will continue to get tate debt advisory platform DRC Cap- Partners III in 2018, creating one of the returns eroded, so LPs need to think ital. “Currencies could re-align, and segment’s largest vehicles. about what they are paying management investors’ attitudes toward different “Whether we are investing more fees for.” regions could change according to how in Europe or the US at any given time economies react as the virus spreads. It is a function of where we see the most Cross-border capital could be the case they are even more in- interesting opportunities,” he says. Michael Kavanau, head of debt and terested.” “RECP III at the moment is rough- structured finance for EMEA at JLL, He is optimistic about the longer- ly 50-50. However, its predecessor, says debt markets are seeing cross-bor- term prospects for the sector, however: RECP II, was more like 80-20 in favor der capital movement as participants “Once the volatility settles, global inter- of the US.” seek diversification and a niche where est rates will still be lower and investors The market for mezzanine lending, they can generate higher returns: “US will still be in need of yield. Meanwhile particularly in the US, has become very capital is looking to invest in Europe, there will have been a tremendous crowded, he observes, with credit funds where investors see better risk-adjusted amount of disruption in public markets, competing largely on pricing. That led returns because of higher pricing. Plus, so real estate and private debt will con- Goldman to pivot towards development if they are dollar investors they have tinue to look pretty attractive.” n May 2020 • Debt 11
Analysis K E Y N O T E I N T E R V I E W Why data drives debt decision-making Yardi Systems’ Chris Barbier considers how access to information can help investors manage risk in turbulent economic times Rapidly-evolving market dynamics, markets are very high, so taking a debt SPONSOR coupled with a heightened perception as opposed to an equity position is a YARDI SYSTEMS of risk, are driving two emerging trends lower-risk alternative. We have seen a within the real estate data management tremendous surge in the number of debt sphere, argues Chris Barbier, industry principal, investment management, at property management software provid- Q What is driving the need for supporting technologies in the real estate debt segment? funds managed by our real estate clients as debt is increasingly treated as an as- set within their portfolios. Now we are er Yardi Systems: a growing need for Because of where we are in the market seeing them putting in place the systems integrated technology platforms that cycle there is an aversion to risk. Every- and reporting around that. enable the same kind of reporting and body thinks there is a correction com- Some managers are using existing analysis for real estate debt as managers ing, and maybe coronavirus will be the legacy systems for managing debt that are already accustomed to utilize for eq- mechanism through which that happens. is old and dated, or they have built their uity investments; and increased demand Investors are concerned about risk expo- own custom systems for managing debt, from institutional investors for managers sure, so they want to be able to analyze while others – some larger than you to provide them with detailed and up- their portfolios in greater depth. would think – are still using Excel. Now to-the-minute data analysis that allows Meanwhile many of our clients are that debt is becoming a larger part of them to gauge their exposure to risk in increasing their allocations to debt portfolios, needs for analysis, account- the light of current events. strategies, because asset prices in most ing and reporting have become more 12 PERE • May 2020
Analysis complex, so it is becoming clear that older technology is no longer adequate. Moreover, managers are not in the software business, so they do not want to spend time and money maintaining legacy systems, and many would like to achieve efficiencies by consolidating into as few technology platforms as possible. However, most managers are not pri- marily investors in debt, and capital pro- viders see real estate debt investments as an asset class that sits alongside real estate equity, so they want a technolo- gy solution where the two are aligned so that they can compare and analyze them side by side with a similar level of detail. Our lender clients are telling us that being able to track the underlying real estate collateral, the covenants that are in place, and how those assets are performing relative to whatever kind of position they took on the debt, is be- coming a more critical analysis than it was previously. Q Yardi has been developing a real estate debt management platform. What have you learned from that process? Q How do the changes taking place in the debt sphere sit within the wider context of the We have built a real estate debt investment management system that can be added on as an optional component to our investment management suite. evolution of data usage in real That went live with our first set of clients in December last year. estate? The feedback we got from the beta testing was that there is a need for an We have seen an increasing number accounting solution for clients that want to service their own loans, that sits of institutional investors and private alongside a solution for managing real estate debt and equity investments equity fund managers seeking to make on a single platform. The debt is the asset instead of the property and the greater use of operational data on both debt management solution provides the tracking for all the information the debt and equity side. They fre- around the debt instrument. quently look to feed that operational Some clients want to be in the business of servicing the loans data together with financial data into themselves, billing borrowers and taking the servicing fees. Others prefer a single consolidated technology plat- to outsource the servicing, but still want that data available to them on form so that it can support data-led the system so that they can analyze it, identify critical dates, and do the business initiatives. necessary reporting. The dynamics of markets are shifting On the debt side we are seeing that there is an accounting piece, which quickly, so investors are becoming more is needed by the accountants, and then there is a transparency piece, which inquisitive about what is driving returns is needed by the asset and fund managers who are responsible for managing and value. A financial or fund report that the debt portfolio and understanding the risks and critical dates. is 30 or 40 days old is no longer useful in We are in controlled release of that product with our first half dozen a lot of cases. They are looking for re- clients and we are expanding the product’s functionality as new use cases al-time information about specific things emerge. We are also starting to see interest from some borrowers too, they are hearing in the news. because within the technology platform they can place the data on the For example, they read about a re- property that they own and operate alongside the data on whatever loans tailer going bankrupt or closing stores are secured against it. That could allow them better visibility of loan and want to know immediately what that covenants and what triggers them so that they are better attuned to critical means for their portfolio if they are in- dates and can manage those covenants more effectively. vested in a fund with a retail component May 2020 • Debt 13
Analysis to it. What impact will that have on re- in the last 18 months toward institu- turns? How much risk is there? And if tions wanting their various operating they are a debt investor, they will want Now that debt is partners to process data on a common to know whether the underlying col- platform. That allows them access to lateral for their loan is impacted by the becoming a larger part the data, and also ensures data govern- reduction in value and cashflow that ance and integrity. They can look at two might come with the loss of a large an- of portfolios, needs for office buildings on different continents chor tenant. managed by different operators and analysis, accounting know that they will be able to look at If the fund manager has that infor- mation at their fingertips, then they can and reporting have the same set of data for both. prepare in advance to respond to that Some of our investor clients also type of question. They can also go a become more complex” care about providing a consistent brand step further and set out what they are experience throughout their properties doing about it. Who might be able to even though they are the institutional step in and take that vacant space? For owner and not the operator, and hav- fund and asset managers, being able to ing a consistent set of performance data access data is critical to getting ahead of helps them to achieve that. Meanwhile the questions that investors might raise. there are efficiencies to be gained by In the past, investors and fund man- having all that data in one place and not agers were removed from that broader having to aggregate it by pulling it from set of data and higher level of detail. disparate sources. They were getting a monthly report from their operating partner in PDF containing data that may already have been stale. Q What will be the next step change for the use of data in the sector? Formerly the operating model Once investors have a consistent and adopted by most institutions was to comprehensive single source of data, leave property management to their they can begin to design and make use operating partners, who would provide of new analytical tools. The next wave them with periodic reports, while the of things to come is the concept of investor or fund manager concentrat- prescriptive predictive analytics. Real ed on the financial results. Now, while estate investors are beginning to think they are still not necessarily involved in about how they can leverage artificial day-to-day operations, they can access intelligence and machine learning to the operational information they need analyze their past investments in both to make key decisions around what debt and equity, together with the out- drives revenue and risk. comes of those decisions, to help them Being able to access asset-level op- make better choices in the future. erational information can help support A couple of our clients are already managers in developing their business starting to experiment with that tech- models. For example, some of our cli- nology, and that is part of the reason ents have invested in commercial real “Real estate investors why they want control over all aspects estate funds for many years but are only of their data. Until now real estate has now beginning to enter the multifamily are beginning to think tended to be a very backward-looking space at scale. Holding and managing industry compared with equity markets, property for the long term in that sector about how they can and we are just starting to think more produces a different set of operational leverage artificial prospectively than retrospectively, and metrics, and if their various operating to consider how we leverage data to partners are providing data on the man- intelligence and help us do that. That is driving further ager’s platform, they can conduct their consolidation in data management plat- own analysis of that data set to inform machine learning” forms because the more systems you their decisions in that space. have, the harder it is to standardize data We have seen an increasing trend for use in predictive technologies. n 14 PERE • May 2020
Analysis Covid-19 won’t stop fund launch Edmond de Rothschild plans to introduce a real estate debt offering on schedule, reports Christie Ou C €10.4bn ovid-19 may have created fundraising. While the former have multiple fundraising hurdles, been affected by slower decision-mak- including a ban on in-person ing processes and greater difficulty in meetings, but Edmond de Rothschild AUM: Edmond de Rothschild Real arranging financing, the latter has been Real Estate Investment Management Estate Investment Management challenged by travel restrictions and so- chief executive Pierre Jacquot says the cial distancing measures that preclude firm is still proceeding with the struc- Types of vehicles in-person meetings with investors. turing and pre-marketing of a €300 mil- €2bn lion pan-European real estate debt fund Opportunity in uncertainty according to its “original timeline.” Despite – or rather because of – the The launch of the vehicle was in the uncertainty, however, EDR is proceed- works as early as October when the firm In open-end vehicles ing with its planned fundraise. Jacquot brought on board Ralf Kind, ex-CEO says: “We think the crisis will generate €8bn of listed German commercial property opportunities of real estate debt deals. company DEMIRE Deutsche Mittel- It is often the case after volatile times.” stand Real Estate. Including Kind, the The vehicle will be the first real es- firm has hired two dedicated profes- tate debt fund for the firm, which al- sionals for the new debt fund, in addi- In closed-end vehicles ready manages a €2.6 billion infrastruc- tion to half a dozen existing real estate ture debt platform. The new product team members who will work on the Geographical split of AUM offering follows EDR’s consolidation business. With a high-yield strategy, the of its three real estate businesses in 50% fund will look at private credit opportu- March under a new global brand – Ed- nities across the capital stack, including mond de Rothschild Real Estate In- senior loans, junior loans, mezzanine vestment Management. On the real es- and preferred equity in Europe. In France tate equity side, EDR manages around EDR is not planning an official €2 billion in open-end vehicles and 20% launch of the fund until mid-2020, €8 billion in closed-end vehicles. however. “There is a lot of prepara- The new brand combines pan-Eu- tion, structuring and research work to ropean fund manager Cording Real be done,” says Jacquot, explaining to Estate Group, French firm Cleaveland In Switzerland PERE why the timeline hasn’t changed. and Swiss-based Orox into a €10.4 “They want to take advantage of this billion pan-European platform. EDR 30% period to also talk to market operators entered the real estate sector in 2012 to help evaluate the situation.” when it acquired Orox. Post-consolida- Having said that, Jacquot admits tion, the firm hopes to double the size covid-19 has made it “uncertain” and In Benelux, Germany and the UK, at of its real estate portfolio in the next “difficult” to execute transactions and 10 percent each three to five years. n May 2020 • Debt 15
16 PERE • May 2020
Analysis Debt May 2020 • perenews.com The 50 biggest debt fund managers Cover story Ready for change? Debt fund capital raising steps up a gear O ur inaugural top to combine the capital raised by Cer- 50 ranking of berus and the two firms above them in global private real the ranking – second- and third-placed estate debt fund Blackstone and PGIM Real Estate – managers pub- to surpass the $19.5 billion raised by lished last year ap- AXA, and even then only by $500 mil- peared to confirm what many already lion or so. believed: debt fundraising had been The Paris-based manager’s debt strong, North American firms were fund capital raising accounts for more dominating, and Blackstone was the than 12 percent of the entire RED 50 top dog. The list this year has built on and 34 percent of the capital raised by that but also provided a twist. firms headquartered in Europe. The Despite slowing, debt fundraising bottom 14 managers globally – all firms remains strong, with more than $40 that raised comfortably more than billion of extra capital raised by this $1 billion each – raised just $200 mil- year’s top 50 compared with the class of lion more between them than AXA. 2019. North American firms continue Two firms from Asia-Pacific – Mel- to dominate, having accounted for 32 bourne-based pair Qualitas and MaxCap out of 50 firms last time and exactly the Investment Management – make the top same this time. However, Blackstone is 50, with the latter a new entrant. There no longer top, with AXA Investment are, however, another six firms from the Managers – Real Assets rocketing to region that would rank within the top 75 the number one spot in 2020. if the RED 50 were to be extended, sug- Furthermore, 10 of the names on gesting that this particular statistic will the list were not in the original RED change in future rankings. 50. That degree of change is often in Real estate debt has room to grow the nature of a young ranking. Two of in Asia-Pacific – particularly in mar- these new names make the top 10 this kets such as China and Australia – as time around, which is more unusual. it does in Europe. North America may Joining AXA Investment Managers continue to be the dominant region – Real Estate near the top of the list is but, as the latest iteration of the RED distressed investment specialist Cer- 50 shows, the picture is starting to berus Capital Management. You have change. ■ May 2020 • Debt 17
Analysis Change 2020 since rank 2019 Manager The Real Estate Debt 1 AXA Investment Managers – Real Assets 2 q Blackstone 3 p PGIM Real Estate 4 Cerberus Capital Management 5 q Intermediate Capital Group 6 q AllianceBernstein 7 q M&G Investments 8 q Goldman Sachs Merchant Banking Division 9 p Bridge Investment Group 10 ACORE Capital 11 q PCCP 12 Mack Real Estate Credit Strategies 13 q Oaktree Capital Management 14 q LaSalle Investment Management 15 p BentallGreenOak 16 p Torchlight Investors 17 p Kayne Anderson Capital Advisors 18 q Brookfield Asset Management 19 p KKR 20 q DRC Capital 21 Aberdeen Standard Investments 22 q CAERUS Debt Investments 23 p DWS 24 vw Rialto Capital Management 25 q Prime Finance Advisor 26 q Nuveen Real Estate 27 q BlackRock PERE’s latest ranking of the largest real estate 28 p Mesa West Capital debt fund managers 29 30 p q Walton Street Capital Cheyne Capital Management 31 p Qualitas 32 vw Square Mile Capital Definitions 33 q Madison Realty Capital 34 MaxCap Investment Management Private real estate debt 35 q Värde Partners For the purposes of the RED 50, this is equity capital raised for a 36 p CBRE Global Investors dedicated program of issuing debt for property deals. The capital 37 Invesco Real Estate is raised primarily in blind-pool limited partnerships. These 38 p JCR Capital Investment Corporation investment programs are further distinguished in that they do not 39 q Tyrus Capital pursue ownership of the assets, but rather the financing of them. 40 q SCOR Investment Partners 41 q Ares Management Corporation Capital raised 42 q Colony Capital This means capital definitively committed to a private real estate 43 Barings direct investment program. In the case of a fundraising, it means 44 q AgFe the fund has had a final or official interim close after January 1, 45 q Atalaya Capital Management 2015. We may count the full amount of a fund if it has a close after 46 LCN Capital Partners this date. And we may count the full amount of an interim close (a 47 q Brunswick Real Estate Capital real one, not a ‘soft-circle’) that has occurred recently, even if no 48 Octopus Real Estate official announcement has been made. We also count capital raised 49 Amundi Group through co-investment vehicles. 50 q Pacific Investment Management Co. New entry p Riser q Faller vw No change 18 PERE • May 2020
Analysis Capital raised Headquarters ($m) What counts? Paris 19,467.05 Structures New York 8,506.00 – Limited partnerships Madison 5,768.27 – Co-investment/sidecar vehicles New York 5,748.85 – Seed capital or manager commitment London 5,162.30 Strategies New York 5,050.00 – Debt issuing funds London 4,794.86 New York 4,706.36 What does not count? Salt Lake City 4,181.00 – Expected capital commitments San Francisco 4,056.45 – Open-end funds subject to conditions on tab 6 Los Angeles 4,043.30 – Public funds New York 3,863.00 – Funds of funds Los Angeles 3,685.00 – Non-discretionary vehicles Chicago 3,624.74 – Secondaries vehicles New York 3,410.33 – Real estate equity funds (core, core plus, value-add, New York 3,042.50 opportunistic) Los Angeles 2,970.00 – Private equity Toronto 2,949.00 – Infrastructure New York 2,887.00 – Hedge funds London 2,875.27 – Capital raised from affiliated entities Aberdeen 2,851.45 – Capital raised on a deal-by-deal basis Dusseldorf 2,693.40 – Private real estate funds for which purchasing debt is part of the Frankfurt 2,569.14 strategy Miami 2,542.00 New York 2,498.38 London 2,435.35 New York remains the leading debt fundraising center (proportion of RED $156.9bn New York 2,428.67 50 total capital raised) Los Angeles 2,263.00 Chicago 2,173.15 Los Other London 2,123.00 Angeles 29% Total capital raised Melbourne New York 2,099.78 2,022.00 10% $3.1bn New York 1,931.00 Melbourne 1,829.83 Minneapolis 1,786.02 London 1,763.95 Average capital raised New York 1,713.00 Denver 1,678.20 62.4% London 1,513.63 Paris 1,493.97 Los Angeles 1,482.50 Los Angeles 1,446.89 Capital raised by North New York America-based firms Charlotte 1,430.46 London 1,427.79 32% 14 New York 1,425.00 New York 1,371.11 Stockholm 1,334.43 Paris London Number of places climbed by Mesa London Paris 1,318.34 1,260.87 14% 15% West Capital, up from 42 to 28. No firm to appear in both editions of Newport Beach 1,249.00 the RED 50 climbed more places Source: PERE May 2020 • Debt 19
Analysis Headquartered in: Asia-Pacific Europe North America 1 AXA Investment Managers – Real Assets Capital raised: $19.5bn Head office: Paris If you’re going to make an entrance, go big. Absent from the first iteration of PERE’s RED 50, AXA Investment Managers – Real Assets has done just that, debuting right at the top of the list with a whopping $19.5 billion of capital raised for real estate debt issuance – barely less than the next three firms combined. It was the first non-banking institution to enter the European real estate debt market in 2005, having raised more than €14 billion across private and listed debt since then. It focuses on conservative loan-to-value, quality assets and growth potential. AXA’s debt funds aim to capture risk-adjusted returns from senior loan real estate investments. Among AXA’s debt funds are its mammoth Commercial Real Estate Senior funds. Commercial Real Estate Senior 9 (CRE 9) closed in 2015 at €2.9 billion, over €1 billion above target, and 2017’s Commercial Real Estate Senior 10 (CRE 10) closed at its cap of €1.5 billion. Both are currently investing, with a new fund launched this year already sized at €904 million. The closing of CRE 10 took AXA IM – Real Assets’ total debt commitments to more than €14 billion and was AXA’s first debt fund to have an initial mandate in the US. The head of commercial real estate private debt is Antonio de Laurentiis. In late 2018 AXA bought a US real estate debt business from Quadrant Real Estate Advisors, acquiring the US debt investment team and a $9.4 billion portfolio of US commercial mortgage loans. 2 Blackstone Capital raised: $8.5bn Head office: New York Making way at the top for AXA is Blackstone, the leader of the 2019 RED 50 list, which moves into second place despite having raised $1.31 billion more than it had for the inaugural list. Its most recent real estate debt fund is Blackstone Real Estate Debt Strategies IV, sized at $285 million but seeking $5 billion. The vehicle will focus on public and private debt globally with an emphasis on the US. The previous fund in the BREDS series – Blackstone Real Estate Debt Strategies III – closed on $4.5 billion in 2016, ahead of its $4 billion target, with a focus on mezzanine and structured lending on well-located, institutional quality real estate. Blackstone Real Estate Debt Strategies II closed a year before that on $3.6 billion. BREDS II and III are both still investing. Blackstone’s real estate debt business provides financing solutions across the capital structure and risk spectrum. It also manages Blackstone Mortgage Trust, a real estate finance company that originates senior loans collateralized by commercial real estate. The firm started investing in real estate in 1991. The real estate debt team is led by Michael Nash, senior managing director and co-founder of the group and chairman; Jonathan Pollack, senior managing director and global head of the group; and Tim Johnson, senior managing editor and global head of originations for BREDS. Blackstone’s real estate debt funds typically target investments with current cashflow, capital protection and high-quality borrowers. 20 PERE • May 2020
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