COVID-19 Outbreak: Analysis of Global Aviation Operation - March 16, 2020

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COVID-19 Outbreak: Analysis of Global Aviation Operation - March 16, 2020
COVID-19 Outbreak:
Analysis of Global Aviation
Operation

             March 16, 2020
COVID-19 Outbreak: Analysis of Global Aviation Operation - March 16, 2020
Contents

Summary

COVID-19 Aviation Impact: Top News this Week

Brief: COVID-19 Outbreak and Global Aviation Operation

• Overview – Latest situation

• Covid-19: US travel ban on European countries comes into force

• CARDI Analysis

• Prediction

COVID-19 Forces Airlines to Start Pulling Down Capacity

• Overview

• What Happened to Major Airlines

• Trends of Completed Flight in Major Airports

• Flight Utilization in Major Countries/Regions

• Freight Capacity in China

• Forecast
COVID-19 Outbreak: Analysis of Global Aviation Operation - March 16, 2020
Since the China-US travel ban was announced on January 31,
the United States has extended travel restrictions to the
Schengen area, Britain and Ireland following the outbreak of
COVID-19 worldwide. At the same time, multiple airlines and
airports carried out massive flight reductions: for example, and
Jeju Airport in South Korea announced to cut all flights.

Here we, VariFlight, compared the epidemic situation and data
(like CARDI index) between China and rest of world, to help
people understand the global traffic and economic trends.
AIRLINES

3/10/2020 Qantas cuts almost a quarter of all flights and says its CEO will stop
taking a salary
Qantas has announced sweeping cost-cutting measures in light of the
worsening novel coronavirus crisis, including slashing almost a quarter of all
flights for the next six months and significantly reducing executive pay.

3/13/2020 LOT Polish Airlines to suspend all flights as country closes borders
LOT Polish Airlines is temporarily suspending all of its flight operations, after
Poland announced to close its borders and halt international travel amid the
Coronavirus crisis.

3/13/2020 ANA, JAL expand flight cuts as coronavirus hits travel demand
All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines said Friday they will cancel more
domestic flights as travel demand is drying up in the wake of the global
coronavirus outbreak.

3/14/2020 American Airlines reduce international capacity by 75% year over
year -- from March 16 to May 6
American Airlines anticipates its domestic capacity in April will be reduced by
20% compared to last year and May’s domestic capacity will be reduced by 30%
on a year over year basis.

3/14/2020 Delta, American, United in White House talks to receive
government support
Delta, American Airlines and United Airlines, the three largest U.S. airlines, are in
talks with the U.S. government about potential assistance amid a dramatic
drop-off in air travel demand due to the coronavirus outbreak, the carriers said
on Friday.

3/15/2020 Air New Zealand cuts international flights by 85%
The kiwi airline has suspended trading on the New Zealand Stock Exchange, will
reduce capacity on domestic flights by 30% and international flights by 85%.
AIRLINES – Contd.

3/15/2020 Alitalia: Passengers are required to wear protective breathing
masks on board. Alitalia informs passengers that, before boarding, they will be
required to have their own protective mask to be worn in case a large number
of travelers on board would not allow to respect the 1-meter interpersonal
safety distance.

3/15/2020 airBaltic Suspends All Flights Until Mid April
airBaltic will suspend all flights from March 17th until the middle of April, in a
move to combat changing conditions resulting from the coronavirus, which will
include international flights with passengers being contacted directly by the
airline to rearra

3/15/2020 KLM to cut 2000 jobs & will suspend up to 40% of flights
KLM’s CEO, Pieter Elbers, delivered the news that 1,500 to 2,000 jobs would be
cut in light of the coronavirus situation and 30-40% of flights will be suspended
as the airline fights to manage its costs and avoid financial ruin.

3/15/2020 Virgin Atlantic boss seeks 7.5 billion-pound UK airline bailout
Virgin Atlantic’s chairman Peter Norris will write to British Prime Minister Boris
Johnson on Monday saying the country’s airline industry needs emergency
government support worth 7.5 billion pounds or risks the loss of tens of
thousands of jobs.

3/15/2020 Delta reduces U.S.-Europe flying starting Monday; suspends JFK to
Mumbai
Delta will significantly reduce its U.S. to Europe flying beginning Monday, March
16, following the U.S. government directive restricting travel between the U.S.
and Europe.

3/15/2020 United Airlines pares London and Dublin flights as US travel ban
widens United Airlines has nixed some flights to London and Dublin following
the US government’s expansion of its travel ban to include passengers arriving
from the UK and Ireland.

3/15/2020 Emirates not suspending all flights amid coronavirus outbreak
In a statement issued on the site on Sunday, Emirates refuted the rumours that
Emirates was suspend all flights on - adding that there was no truth to the
rumours circulating on social media.

3/16/2020 SAS to halt most traffic, temporarily lay off 10000 staff
SAS said this would trigger temporary lay-offs of up to 10,000 employees, or
90% of the airline’s total workforce.
AIRPORT

3/10/2020 LAX screeners in self-quarantine amid coronavirus fears; airport
workers urge more training
Additional screeners at Los Angeles International Airport are in self-quarantine
and may be at risk of developing the new coronavirus because of their
interaction with two screeners who tested positive last week for COVID-19.

3/12/2020 Guam airport starts fever scans weeks after COVID-19 outbreaks
Healthcare workers start screening passengers Thursday at the A.B. Won Pat
International Airport using temperature scanners due to COVID-19 concerns.

3/13/2020 13 airports that will let Americans in from Europe after Trump's
coronavirus travel ban kicks in
Donald's Trump's European travel ban has kicked in, but it has emerged that
Americans flying home will only be allowed to travel through 13 airports and
they will not be tested for coronavirus when they land at the border.

3/13/2020 Changi Airport's passenger traffic fell 32.8% in February amid
COVID-19 outbreak Changi Airport saw a 32.8 per cent year-on-year decline in
passenger movements in February as air travel demand continues to be
impacted by the COVID-19 situation.

3/13/2020 Delhi Airport restricts entry to duty-free zone Indian Customs has
restricted passenger entry in Delhi Airport's duty-free zone as the country
accelerates efforts to contain the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak.

3/15/2020 JFK, Newark airports see large crowds under new coronavirus
'enhanced screenings'
Americans returning from Europe found themselves in a crowded hell of delays
and long lines Saturday night at the 13 airports selected to handle their
incoming flights under new rules enacted by the Trump administration to
combat the spread of the COVID-19.

3/16/2020 Atlanta airport says operations normal amid coronavirus travel
turmoil Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport on Sunday reported
normal operations as airlines and passengers navigate new travel restrictions
enacted to limit the spread of the coronavirus.
CHINA

3/10/2020 Shanghai airports strengthen measures
The new measures require that all travelers from countries severely affected by
the virus arriving at the city's airports be subject to epidemiological
investigation.

3/10/2020 CAAC: New measures aim to bail out airlines hit hard by outbreak
China will reduce its airport and air control fees by 10 percent for domestic and
overseas airlines, as well as those from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.

3/12/2020 Guangzhou airport enhances screenings
New measures have been introduced at Guangzhou Baiyun International
Airport in Guangdong province to prevent the coronavirus from being
imported to the Chinese mainland as confirmed cases outside the country
continue to grow.

3/12/2020 CAAC: the civil aviation sector handled 8.34 million passenger trips
in February
Statistics from the administration show that the civil aviation sector handled
8.34 million passenger trips in February, dropping 84.5 percent from the same
period of last year. And cargo transport fell by 21 percent year-on-year to
297,000 tons last month

3/12/2020 CAAC: The whole industry recorded the heaviest single-month
financial loss last month
The whole industry also recorded the heaviest single-month financial loss of
24.59 billion yuan (nearly US$3.53 billion) over last month, 20.96 billion yuan of
which came from the airlines' deficit.

3/13/2020 CAAC: Measures taken to reduce cases from inbound flights
The Civil Aviation Administration of China will work with the departments of
foreign affairs, customs, public security, health and immigration, as well as the
Beijing municipal government to strengthen the management of international
flights.

3/14/2020 Beijing Daxing redirects international flights to Capital Airport
All international flights arriving in Beijing will land at the Capital International
Airport, including those previously landing at the city's southern Daxing
International Airport, in a bid to contain surging cross-border infections.

3/16/2020 China Southern to resume set of international flights
China Southern Airlines, the largest airline by fleet size in Asia, plans to resume
international passenger flights to a number of regions starting on Friday, with
demand to Australia and New Zealand becoming robust.
GOVERNMENT

3/13/2020 Norway to temporarily shut its airports
Norway is to temporarily close its airports from 16 March as part of wide-
ranging restrictions aimed tackling the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

3/13/2020 Netherland bans flights from China, Italy, South Korea
The Netherlands will begin banning the arrival of flights from several countries
among the most affected by the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak. The decision
will affect flights from China, Hong Kong, Iran, Italy and South Korea

3/13/2020 EU suspends aviation slots rule as coronavirus hammers airlines
The European Union will suspend a rule requiring airlines to run most of their
scheduled services or else forfeit landing slots, to give carriers some breathing
space as the coronavirus crisis deepens, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said on
Tuesday.

3/13/2020 Thailand: Travellers from 4 nations must show medical certificate
before boarding flights to the country
Travellers from China, including Macau and Hong Kong, Iran, Italy and South
Korea are now required to present a medical certificate proving they are not
infected with COVID-19 before boarding their flight to Thailand.

3/14/2020 Latvia to suspend all international passenger transportation
In order to prevent the further spread of the Covid-19 cornavirus outbreak in
the country, the government today had decided that all international passenger
transportation will be suspended from March 17 to April 14.

3/14/2020 Vietnam to refuse visitors from UK, Schengen countries
Vietnam will deny entry and stop issuing tourist visas to citizens from Europe's
Schengen visa-free area and Britain starting from Sunday (Mar 15), amid
concerns over the spreading coronavirus, its foreign ministry said.

3/14/2020 UAE temporarily suspends visas as COVID-19 declared pandemic
Effective March 17, the UAE has temporarily suspended all visas to all foreigners,
with the exception of diplomatic passport holders, as part of the nation’s
attempt to curb the spread of the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19).
GOVERNMENT – Contd.

3/15/2020 Jordan suspends flights, close borders to stop the coronavirus
spread
Jordan said on Saturday it would halt flights, close its land borders and shut
down schools, places of worship and public gatherings to stop the spread of
novel coronavirus.

3/15/2020 Saudi Arabia suspends all international flights for two weeks
An official at Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has confirmed that all
international flights to and from the kingdom will be suspended for two weeks
beginning at 11am on Sunday, March 15, reported official news channel Saudi
Press Agency (SPA).

3/15/2020 Singapore imposes new requirements for visitors from ASEAN
countries, Japan, Switzerland and UK
From 11.59pm on March 16, travellers entering Singapore with recent travel
history to ASEAN countries, Japan, Switzerland or the UK in the last 14 days will
have to comply with a new 14-day stay-home notice.
TRAVEL

3/11/2020 Business travel sector to lose US$820 billion in revenue on
coronavirus hit: industry group
The global business travel sector is expected to take a revenue hit of about
US$820 billion, with China accounting for nearly half of the losses, as
corporates curb travel plans in the face of the coronavirus epidemic, an industry
body said on Tuesday.

3/12/2020 Travel industry under siege as coronavirus contagion grows
The fallout from the coronavirus spread across the Pacific on Friday, with
Australian travel firms issuing profit warnings and Japanese carriers cutting
capacity, while U.S. airlines rushed to cut flights to Europe in the wake of new
travel restrictions.

3/12/2020 US ban on European visitors escalates travel industry pain
President Donald Trump's 30-day ban on most Europeans entering the United
States is the latest calamity for a global travel industry already reeling from
falling bookings and canceled reservations as people try to avoid contracting
and spreading the corona

3/12/2020 Flight Centre to close 100 stores, travel companies pull guidance
Three ASX-listed travel companies with a combined market capitalisation of
$2.72 billion have all pulled their profit guidance today as border and flight
restrictions block the possibility of meaningful predictions.

3/16/2020 More travel companies cut exec salaries, withdraw earnings
guidance Corporate Travel Management (CTM) has suspended its earnings
guidance for the 2020 financial year, as well as actioning several plans to
manage costs against the reduced corporate travel activity.

3/16/2020
Hong Kong’s battered tourism sector hit a new monthly low with arrivals
plunging to 199,000 – daily average for early 2019
 Hong Kong’s battered tourism sector hit a new low amid the coronavirus
epidemic in February when arrivals slumped to 199,000 – the daily average in
the first half of last year.
BUSINESS AVIATION

3/11/2020 Singapore outlines COVID-19 measures for bizav
The Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) has laid out a series of
requirements for business aircraft to enter the country amid the ongoing
COVID-19 outbreak around the globe. Starting at 11:59 p.m. local time on
March 12, all air crew and passenger

3/11/2020 Business jet operators see demand surge on U.S. travel
restrictions, coronavirus
New U.S. restrictions on Europeans entering the United States are fueling
additional bookings for business jet flights, which were already in higher
demand this year because of coronavirus, executives said on Thursday.

3/11/2020 EBACE business aviation show axed over Swiss restrictions
Business aviation exhibition EBACE 2020 has been cancelled as a consequence
of the coronavirus situation, more than two months ahead of its scheduled
opening date. The event was due to take place in Geneva from 26-28 May.
Overview – Latest situation

          Basic Reproduction Number (R0) and Aircraft Movements of
              Hard-Hit Countries/Regions (>100 Confirmed Cases)
                                  (Mar 15, 2019)

      Countries/Regions        Confirmed Cases     R0     Aircraft Movements
Italy                              24747           2.33          1035
Iran                               13938             0             67
South Korea                         8236           0.45          1362
Spain                               7753             0           8433
Germany                             5864           3.77          6916
France                              5423           5.21          5862
USA                                 3482            4.7         97405
Switzerland                         1563           4.45          2125
Japan(incl Diamond Princess)        1514             0          10553
UK                                  1372           232           8396
Netherlands                         1135           176           2466
Norway                              1077           1.41          2509
Sweden                              1023           1.19          1641
Belgium                              886             0           1040
Denmark                              864           4.63          1239
Austria                              860           8.91          1247
Malaysia                             428             0           3391
Qatar                                401            63            923
Canada                               343            15           9280
Greece                               331           103           1333
Australia                            272             0           6729
Czech                                253           5.82           452
Portugal                             245           8.87          1977
Finland                              243           1.73          1126
Singapore                            226            14           1396
Slovenia                             219            9.5            60
Bahrain                              214             0            232
Israel                               213           0.93           236
Brazil                               200           8.17          9077
Covid-19:
US travel ban on European countries comes into force

IATA director general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac stated (12-Mar-2020) the US
Government's decision to introduce restrictions on travel between the US and
Schengen market "will create enormous cash-flow pressures for airlines".
The US-Schengen market was worth USD20.6 billion in 2019, and it is expected
the markets which will experience the heaviest impact are going to be US-
Germany (USD4 billion), US-France (USD3.5 billion) and US-Italy (USD2.9 billion).
US President Donald Trump‘s travel ban on 26 European nations has come into
force in the US, as part of a contingency plan to tackle the coronavirus crisis. The
ban went into effect at midnight on Friday, but only after the original
announcement sparked chaos at a number of European airports as Americans
sought ways to return home before it went into effect.
The ban stops most non-Americans who have been in Schengen Area from
entering the United States.

外国人不少都知道 Schengen 是 Travel Free,所以没必要提。
The Trump administration on Saturday expanded travel restrictions from Europe
to include the UK and Ireland works to slow the spread of coronavirus.
The ban on foreign nationals entering the US from UK or Ireland will begin at
midnight on Monday, Vice President Mike Pence said.
It comes on top of restrictions on entry into the US from 26 countries in Europe
that Trump announced on Wednesday. President Donald Trump also said he was
considering restrictions on travel within the United States, though didn't specify
details of the potential domestic bans.
CARDI Analysis

By comparing the daily number of seats on flights operated between US and
major European countries as well as transatlantic routes in 2019 and 2020
provided by Airsavvi , we make the CARDI (Real-time Dynamic Indicators of
Novel Coronavirus Affecting Airline Operations) to quantitatively analyze the
impact of the epidemic and observe real-time changes of the curve.
There is no obvious decrease of seats provided on operated flights in UK, France,
Germany and Spain. However, Italy has witnessed rapid seat declines due to the
severe impact of the epidemic and the unprecedented lockdown of the country
from March 8. It’s predicted that other countries will also experience more
serious reduction in future flight operations.

Prediction
Combining the CARDI and actual data in China, we make a forecast of the flight
operation between the Schengen area and the US. We predict that it will reduce
to 70% this week and decline rapidly in the next 10 days or so. After that, it will
remain stable at 50% for quite a long time.
Scope of analysis: Operated flights between the Schengen area and the US.
(March 11-April 11)
The wide ranging effects of the Coronavirus COVID-19 on the global aviation
continue unabated, a growing number of airlines have unveiled measures to
combat the effects of the COVID-19 epidemics, including grounding aircraft,
cutting capacity, and furloughing staff.

Since March 2020, the number of airports in mainland China that have reduced
flights by more than 50% year-on-year has begun to decrease, while the number
of airports in other countries and territories has been gradually increasing.
•
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  •

                                                                                                                                                              10%
                                                                                                                                                                    20%
                                                                                                                                                                          30%

                                                                                                                        -40%
                                                                                                                               -30%
                                                                                                                                      -20%
                                                                                                                                               -10%
                                                                                                                                                         0%

                                                       -100%
                                                                                                     20%

                                                               -80%
                                                                      -60%
                                                                             -40%
                                                                                      -20%
                                                                                                0%
                                                                                                                                              2020/1/1

                                                                                                           China
                                                                                     2020/1/1
                                                                                                                                              2020/1/3
                                                                                     2020/1/3
                                                                                     2020/1/5                                                 2020/1/5
                                                                                     2020/1/7                                                 2020/1/7
                                                                                     2020/1/9                                                 2020/1/9
                                                                                                                                             2020/1/11

                                                                                                                                                                                the earliest.
                                                                                    2020/1/11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  North America
                                                                                    2020/1/13                                                2020/1/13
                                                                                    2020/1/15                                                2020/1/15
                                                                                    2020/1/17                                                2020/1/17
                                                                                    2020/1/19                                                2020/1/19
                                                                                    2020/1/21                                                2020/1/21
                                                                                    2020/1/23                                                2020/1/23
                                                                                    2020/1/25                                                2020/1/25
                                                                                    2020/1/27                                                2020/1/27
                                                                                    2020/1/29                                                2020/1/29
                                                                                    2020/1/31                                                2020/1/31

                                                  CA
                                                                                                                   AA

Data source: Airsavvi | Published by VariFlight
                                                                                     2020/2/2                                                 2020/2/2
                                                                                     2020/2/4                                                 2020/2/4
                                                                                     2020/2/6                                                 2020/2/6                          hour regular monthly remuneration

                                                                                                                   DL

                                                  MU
                                                                                     2020/2/8                                                 2020/2/8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   What Happened to Major Airlines

                                                                                    2020/2/10                                                2020/2/10
                                                                                    2020/2/12                                                2020/2/12
                                                                                                                                             2020/2/14

                                                                                                                   UA
                                                                                    2020/2/14

                                                  CZ
                                                                                    2020/2/16                                                2020/2/16
                                                                                    2020/2/18                                                2020/2/18
                                                                                    2020/2/20                                                2020/2/20
                                                                                    2020/2/22                                                2020/2/22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  YoY Flight Operation Changes in Major Airlines

                                                                                    2020/2/24                                                2020/2/24
                                                                                    2020/2/26                                                2020/2/26
                                                                                    2020/2/28                                                2020/2/28
                                                                                     2020/3/1                                                 2020/3/1
                                                                                     2020/3/3                                                 2020/3/3
                                                                                     2020/3/5                                                 2020/3/5
                                                                                     2020/3/7                                                 2020/3/7
                                                                                     2020/3/9                                                 2020/3/9
                                                                                    2020/3/11                                                2020/3/11
                                                                                                                                                                                Delta Airlines will park 300 aircraft given the decision to cut 40% of its

                                                                                    2020/3/13                                                2020/3/13
                                                                                    2020/3/15                                                2020/3/15
                                                                                                                                                                                flights including the discontinuation of services to Europe until mid-April at

                                                                                                                                                                                Short of furloughing staff, United Airlines has offered its widebody pilots a
                                                                                                                                                                                month off in April at a salary equivalent to 50 working hours, short of the 80-
Europe
•        Following its announcement of a 25% cut of short- and medium-haul
         capacity, Lufthansa Group now has 150 aircraft on the ground, including 25
         widebody units and 125 smaller aircraft, including narrowbodies and
         regional jets.
•        British Airways is cutting its European capacity to reflect falling demand, and
         will also suspend flights, ground aircraft, and layoff staff.
60%

40%

20%

    0%

         2020/2/14
          2020/1/9
         2020/1/11
         2020/1/13
         2020/1/15
         2020/1/17
         2020/1/19
         2020/1/21
         2020/1/23
         2020/1/25
         2020/1/27
         2020/1/29
         2020/1/31

         2020/2/10
         2020/2/12

         2020/2/16
         2020/2/18
         2020/2/20
         2020/2/22
         2020/2/24
         2020/2/26
         2020/2/28

         2020/3/11
         2020/3/13
         2020/3/15
          2020/1/1
          2020/1/3
          2020/1/5
          2020/1/7

          2020/2/2
          2020/2/4
          2020/2/6
          2020/2/8

          2020/3/1
          2020/3/3
          2020/3/5
          2020/3/7
          2020/3/9
-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

                                             LH   AF   BA

Other Countries
•        Turkish Airlines will park large proportion of its fleet after it announced it
         will suspend flights to Germany, France, Spain, Norway, Denmark, Belgium,
         Austria, Sweden, and the Netherlands from March 14 until April 17.

40%

30%

20%

10%

    0%
         2020/1/21

         2020/2/20
         2020/1/11
         2020/1/13
         2020/1/15
         2020/1/17
         2020/1/19

         2020/1/23
         2020/1/25
         2020/1/27
         2020/1/29
         2020/1/31

         2020/2/10
         2020/2/12
         2020/2/14
         2020/2/16
         2020/2/18

         2020/2/22
         2020/2/24
         2020/2/26
         2020/2/28

         2020/3/11
         2020/3/13
         2020/3/15
          2020/1/1
          2020/1/3
          2020/1/5
          2020/1/7
          2020/1/9

          2020/2/2
          2020/2/4
          2020/2/6
          2020/2/8

          2020/3/1
          2020/3/3
          2020/3/5
          2020/3/7
          2020/3/9

-10%

-20%

                                             TK   NH   SU

Data source: Airsavvi | Published by VariFlight
•

                                                                                                    10%
                                                                                                          20%
                                                                                                                30%
                                                                                                                      40%

                                                       -50%
                                                              -40%
                                                                     -30%
                                                                            -20%
                                                                                     -10%
                                                                                               0%
                                                                                    2020/1/1
                                                                                    2020/1/3                                                                                                              LCC
                                                                                    2020/1/5
                                                                                    2020/1/7
                                                                                    2020/1/9
                                                                                   2020/1/11
                                                                                   2020/1/13
                                                                                   2020/1/15
                                                                                   2020/1/17
                                                                                   2020/1/19
                                                                                   2020/1/21
                                                                                   2020/1/23
                                                                                   2020/1/25
                                                                                   2020/1/27

Data source: Airsavvi | Published by VariFlight
                                                                                   2020/1/29
                                                                                   2020/1/31

                                                  WN
                                                                                    2020/2/2
                                                                                    2020/2/4
                                                                                    2020/2/6

                                                  FR
                                                                                    2020/2/8
                                                                                   2020/2/10
                                                                                   2020/2/12

                                                  6E
                                                                                   2020/2/14
                                                                                   2020/2/16
                                                                                   2020/2/18
                                                                                   2020/2/20
                                                                                   2020/2/22
                                                                                   2020/2/24
                                                                                   2020/2/26
                                                                                   2020/2/28
                                                                                    2020/3/1
                                                                                    2020/3/3
                                                                                    2020/3/5
                                                                                    2020/3/7
                                                                                    2020/3/9
                                                                                                                            Ryanair may be forced to take unpaid leave due to cancelled flights and

                                                                                   2020/3/11
                                                                                   2020/3/13
                                                                                                                            schedule changes. The reductions are likely to start from March 16 onwards.

                                                                                   2020/3/15
Weekly View on YoY Flight Operation Changes in Major Routes

       TOP20 Domestic Routes                      TOP20 International/Regional Routes

       Routes                         YoY               Routes                       YoY
      CJU-GMP                      -39.20%              KUL-SIN                    -33.80%
       MEL-SYD                      -1.92%             HKG-TPE                     -87.71%
      HAN-SGN                      -26.76%              CGK-SIN                    -47.69%
      BOM-DEL                        4.04%             HKG-PVG                     -94.96%
       CPT-JNB                     -26.38%             CGK-KUL                     -28.95%
      FUK-HND                       -4.08%              ICN-KIX                    -93.93%
      CTS-HND                       -3.06%              LGA-YYZ                     -8.25%
      CGH-SDU                       11.71%             BKK-HKG                     -62.18%
      LGA-ORD                      -30.07%             HKG-ICN                     -99.35%
       LAX-SFO                     -16.69%              ICN-NRT                    -87.67%
       BNE-SYD                      -0.32%             ORD-YYZ                     -12.37%
      BOG-MDE                       -1.31%              BKK-SIN                    -32.39%
      CUN-MEX                       -8.87%             HKG-PEK                     -82.91%
       SHA-SZX                     -73.17%             ARN-OSL                      -8.09%
       PEK-SHA                     -81.98%              KIX-TPE                    -57.62%
       CGK-DPS                       6.41%              KIX-PVG                    -85.77%
      MEX-MTY                       -1.14%              HKG-SIN                    -76.69%
       JFK-LAX                      -5.88%              FUK-ICN                   -100.00%
       JED-RUH                      17.27%              LIM-SCL                    -25.86%
       LAS-LAX                      -8.38%              JFK-LHR                     -5.36%

Data source: Airsavvi | Published by VariFlight        Acquisition time: Mar 9-15, 2020; Mar 3-11, 2019
Trends of Completed Flight in Major Airports

                        AMS                                         ATL
1400                                               3000
1200                                               2500
1000                                               2000
 800
                                                   1500
 600
                                                   1000
 400
 200                                                500

   0                                                     0

                        CDG                                       DXB
1400                                              1200
1200                                              1000
1000
                                                  800
 800
                                                  600
 600
 400                                              400
 200                                              200
   0
                                                     0

                         FCO                                        FRA
 900                                               1400
 800                                               1200
 700
                                                   1000
 600
 500                                                800
 400                                                600
 300
                                                    400
 200
 100                                                200
   0                                                     0

Data source: Airsavvi | Published by VariFlight              Acquisition time: Jan 1 – Mar 15, 2020
Trends of Completed Flight in Major Airports – Contd.

                          HND                                     ICN
 1600                                              1200
 1400
                                                   1000
 1200
                                                    800
 1000
  800                                               600
  600
                                                    400
  400
                                                    200
  200
    0                                                 0

                          LHR                                     PEK
 1400                                             1800
 1200                                             1600
                                                  1400
 1000
                                                  1200
  800                                             1000
  600                                              800
  400
                                                   600
                                                   400
  200                                              200
    0                                                0

Data source: Airsavvi | Published by VariFlight           Acquisition time: Jan 1 – Mar 15, 2020
Aircraft Utilization in Major Countries/Regions

       By aircraft classification
14.00

12.00

10.00

 8.00

 6.00

 4.00

 2.00

 0.00

          Boeing737-800 Winglets                  Boeing777-300ER                        AirbusA320-214
          AirbusA320-214 Sharklets                AirbusA320-232                         Boeing737-800 Winglets Scimitar
          Boeing737-700 Winglets                  Boeing787-9

       By aircraft manufacturer
9.00

8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00

                                     Boeing   Airbus      Embraer       Bombardier       COMAC

 Coverage of actual flight hours and aircraft types in 196 countries. Data Source:AirSavvi
Freight Capacity in China

Forecast
Speed of flight suspension and restoration at the national level is positively
correlated with the epidemic indicators. We will continue to release epidemic-
related indexes to offer ideas for the civil aviation industry on strategic planning.
At present, the economic exchanges between countries still maintain a strong
momentum, which is accompanied by a strong demand for freight. Besides,
insufficient capacity of aircraft bellyhold brings chances for the development of
air cargo.
Disclaimer
  © 2020 VariFlight All rights reserved.
  This material was prepared by VariFlight. Whilst based on information is believed
  to be reliable, no guarantee is given that it is accurate or complete.
  Any opinions, forecasts and assumptions contained in this material are as of the
  date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice.

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