Covid-19 in the Horn of Africa
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NO. 20 MAY 2020 Introduction Covid-19 in the Horn of Africa Gaining Trust in a Crisis Annette Weber On reaching the Horn of Africa, the corona virus will have encountered countries already facing a multitude of challenges. Prolonged armed conflict, drought and insecurity have turned more than eight million people into refugees in their own countries, and a further 3.5 million have fled to neighbouring countries where they live in overcrowded refugee camps. All the countries in this region are in a fragile state of political transformation or have been severely weakened by war and govern- ment failures. They possess neither the capacity to contain the Covid pandemic nor to mitigate the resulting unemployment, poverty and hunger. In order to guard against jeopardising the process of democratisation in Sudan and Ethiopia, special emphasis should be placed on social security systems and gaining the trust of the population. This requires an emergency aid package from abroad that will ensure the economic survival of all countries in the region. However, long-term support should be conditional on guaranteeing that most of the investment goes into developing state capacities for critical infrastructure and social security. The legitimacy of the government and the the longer the executive retains supreme degree of trust the population has in its power. For example, the government in leadership are key to effectively combating Somalia is preventing journalists from Covid-19 and coping with its consequential being critical in their reporting. The govern- losses. These factors will determine whether ment in Ethiopia is blocking Internet com- a country can enforce life-saving measures munication in certain parts of the country. or whether social unrest breaks out. Fears are also growing that Prime Minister How a country is governed now will shape Abiy Ahmed will impose a state of emer- the relationship between the state and the gency to further postpone elections, dis- population in the aftermath of the pandemic. solve parliament and appoint a caretaker Although there is currently strong support government. This would damage the gov- for incumbent governments, approval may ernment’s legitimacy and make reconcilia- start to wane if there is an upsurge in infec- tion more difficult in this politically and tion rates, starvation or riots. ethnically fragmented country. Meanwhile, the danger of authoritarian Drastic measures to prevent the virus regimes becoming entrenched increases from spreading have been taken by all the
countries in this region. There is a very real The situation in neighbouring Ethiopia
risk that food shortages, starvation, looting is somewhat different. Up until March,
and social unrest will lead to state failure Ethiopian Airlines continued to fly to China
and armed conflicts. The longer the restric- daily. The government was late in appeal-
tions apply and the more people govern- ing to the population to stay at home. In
ments are unable to feed, the more un- contrast, Ethiopian manufacturing busi-
stable the region will become. nesses reacted quickly. Textile factories
switched production to protective face
masks. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is play-
Current Situation in the Horn ing the role of a regional crisis coordinator.
Ethiopian Airlines are flying aid deliveries
Many countries in the Horn of Africa are to the continent via Addis Ababa. Abiy
still in the early stages of the pandemic. Ahmed has also successfully presented him-
Although the number of cases is low, so is self in the media as a representative of the
the level of testing, making it difficult to continent, mobilising the necessary aid in-
draw any accurate conclusions. vestments through op-eds and letters. In the
Sudan’s response to the outbreak was country itself, however, confidence in the
Rapid. The government closed its borders government is waning, at least in some
before a single case of Covid had been iden- quarters. Rumours of dictatorial measures
tified in the country. Night-time curfews and pending arrests of political opponents
apply throughout Sudan and a comprehen- are rife, especially on the Internet.
sive lockdown was imposed in the capital, The situation is most desperate in Soma-
Khartoum. The Sudanese prime minister is lia and Southern Sudan. Acute conflicts
still riding on a wave of support from the in both these Horn countries have caused
population. The experience of the country’s mass displacement and there is little hope
recent overthrow and renewal has largely of political rapprochement or a ceasefire,
united the Sudanese people. Nevertheless, like the one currently in place in Sudan.
the government’s position is built on sand, Despite the peace treaty, the population’s
as it cannot fully rely on its institutions trust in its former opponents in South
which are still mainly staffed by members Sudan is fragile. Violent clashes between
of the old regime. enemy groups continue to take place. More
Acts of sabotage and disruption by rep- than half of the population is dependent
resentatives of the old regime are increas- on food aid and a functioning health sys-
ing. For example, General Hamad, the gov- tem has not yet been set up. More than 2.2
ernor of the capital, refused to enforce a of the 12 million inhabitants mainly live
ban on assembly for mosques in Khartoum. in neighbouring countries as refugees and
Islamists from the ranks of the former Bashir around 1.5 million are displaced in their
regime are holding demonstrations against own country. Humanitarian aid organisa-
the Prime Minister’s government and call- tions are overseeing the provision of sup-
ing for the military to take power. Attacks plies, partly under the protection of the
on state institutions in protest at restric- UN peacekeeping mission UNMISS. Since
tions on free movement and government the government has, yet again, outsourced
curfews have been reported in the north, the provision of basic supplies for its popu-
and could increase nationwide. The balance lation to international aid organisations,
of power between the military and civilians it is not expected to take on management
in the transitional government still remains tasks in this crisis. The government in Juba
finely poised. Moreover, the armed oppo- is unlikely to use the crisis to build con-
sition has also responded positively to the fidence and its legitimacy is therefore likely
United Nations Secretary-General’s appeal to dwindle further.
to declare a temporary ceasefire as a result Of all the countries in the region, Somalia
of the crisis. faces the greatest challenges. A third of all
SWP Comment 20
May 2020
215 million Somalis depend on food aid, 2.6 but not least, the role of external actors
million have become internally displaced during the crisis.
due to war or drought and just under one
million live as refugees in neighbouring Legitimacy, leadership and
countries. The central government in Moga- acceptance
dishu is in political conflict with some of its
federal states. These conflicts are exacerbated State capacities, such as administrative
by hostile camps in the Gulf Cooperation capacity and the ability to maintain critical
Council (GCC). Qatar and Turkey support infrastructure, will be critical in dealing
the central government in Mogadishu, with the virus and the economic and social
while the United Arab Emirates and Saudi ramifications of the pandemic.
Arabia are providing financial support to In its urban centres, the Sudanese lead-
the states. This situation is only widening ership can rely on the sense of unity result-
the gap between the country’s government ing from the successful revolution against
and its states. As a result, capacity-building the Bashir regime. This gives it an advan-
is impossible and measures cannot be im- tage over those countries in which ethnic,
plemented. Meanwhile, the jihadist al-Sha- social or religious differences divide society.
baab is arming itself and carrying out more There is still a fine balance between the
attacks against Somali security organs and civil and military forces in the government,
the African Union (AU) mission. which compels them to act jointly. If the
Complicating factors in the Horn of government does take on coordination
Africa region include the consistently dis- tasks and starts supplying the population
astrous healthcare and the poor health of with necessary provisions, this will help
its inhabitants who often suffer from mal- stabilise the country.
nutrition and tuberculosis. Another enor- If Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy suc-
mous challenge is the high population ceeds in uniting the population with good
density in the urban areas and the refugee crisis management, his Medemer project
camps. The large number of day-labourers (Amharic for synergy or coming together)
and workers in the informal sector with no could bring about social stabilisation even
savings is also a major problem. Because in a period with economic problems. In
people with underlying health issues are Ethiopia, parliamentary elections, original-
particularly at risk from Covid-19, and espe- ly scheduled for May 2020 and then for
cially those over 60, therefore the youth August 2020, have been postponed in-
factor might yet have a positive effect in definitely due to Covid-19. What would
the Horn of Africa. The average age in the have caused criticism and violent reactions
region is less than 20 years. from the opposition a few weeks ago, now
If the state is unable to provide a certain enjoys almost unanimous support.
level of social security, it will be difficult If the prime minister does manage to
to convince the population that it has to navigate Ethiopia through the crisis in a
accept work bans, restrictions on free move- relatively stable manner, his coalition of
ment and curfews because of Covid-19. parties will most likely secure victory in the
upcoming elections. This is an opportunity
that could quickly go begging if he employs
Structural and actor-related repressive politics, like blocking the Inter-
factors net and telecommunications in the state of
Oromia. In order to maintain the legitimacy
How the policies of the actors in the Horn of his government, he must ensure trans-
of Africa will change as a result of the parent communication and include both
Covid-19 crisis depends on various factors: the opposition and the states. However, if
the legitimacy of the government, corre- Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is unable to
sponding economic development and, last convince the populace of the need for the
SWP Comment 20
May 2020
3restrictions and if he is unable to involve habitants, in Somalia this figure is even
the local level in combating the virus, worse at 0.023.
Corona could fast become a catalyst for Healthcare in Eritrea is similar to that
growing conflicts that would break out of Ethiopia. However, the country has per-
along ethnic and religious lines. sisted with its isolationist position, despite
Covid-19 presents the Somali govern- the Corona crisis. Not even the aircraft with
ment with existential challenges. Even aid supplies from Chinese billionaire Jack
before the pandemic, approval of President Ma, which were to be distributed across
Mohamed Abdullahi Famajo’s government Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa, received a
was not overwhelming. The country has landing permit in Eritrea.
almost no functioning critical infrastruc- In Sudan and South Sudan, the dis-
ture, a third of the population is dependent crepancy between official spending on
on food supplies, and furthermore, there is the healthcare sector and shortages on the
an open conflict with al-Shabaab. In addi- ground is particularly striking. According
tion, the lockdown in place for troops from to the World Health Organization, Sudan’s
the African Union Mission (AMISOM), is budget, at 6.34 percent of GDP, is not far
weakening the response to al-Shabaab. Apart short of the average for member states of
from disputes between the central govern- the Organization for Security and Coopera-
ment and the states, its repressive approach tion in Europe (OSCE); in Southern Sudan,
to the media and journalists has made the as much as 9.76 percent of GDP is allocated
task of building trust more difficult. to healthcare. In fact, there are 0.43 doctors
The new government in South Sudan for every 1,000 inhabitants in Sudan, and
was not officially sworn in until 22 Feb- 0.15 in South Sudan. For comparison, the
ruary 2020, right at the very beginning of density of doctors in member states of the
the pandemic. Since it gained independ- Organization for Economic Cooperation
ence from Sudan in 2011, the county has and Development (OECD) is an average of
been governed by rivals, President Salva Kiir 2.89 per 1,000 inhabitants. This seems to con-
and Vice President Riek Machar. The gov- firm the suspicion that the healthcare sys-
ernment alliance failed twice because of tem is particularly susceptible to corruption.
wrangling between the two camps. The The gap between the numerically small
result was bloody civil wars that left South elite and the majority of the population
Sudan in extreme poverty, with ethnic is also clearly evident in healthcare. While
disparity and no critical infrastructure for there is little investment in the domestic,
health, education and transport. public health sector, the elite mainly go
abroad to receive treatment, and the travel
Healthcare restrictions put in place due to Covid-19 and
the global overload of health systems are
All the countries in the Horn of Africa are currently making it difficult for them to
suffering from a serious shortage of medical travel abroad. That is when the need to in-
care and equipment. vest in your own country becomes more
With 557 ventilators and over 570 in- obvious.
tensive care beds, Ethiopia is well ahead of For transition governments, in particu-
all the other countries in the region. Sudan lar, this situation also represents an oppor-
has 80 ventilators and 200 intensive care tunity to combat corruption in the health-
beds, but only 40 of them are in public care system. Strategic investments in social
hospitals. Somalia has 25 intensive care systems that are supported by the popula-
beds, but not a single ventilator, and South tion and controlled locally could now set an
Sudan has 24 beds and 4 ventilators. important course for the future.
Although Ethiopia has invested more in However, if governments are unwilling
health and education in recent years, the to take responsibility for public healthcare,
country only has 0.1 doctors per 1,000 in- this could lead to widespread opposition to,
SWP Comment 20
May 2020
4or even attacks on, wards where Covid-19 This will require coordinating the UN
patients are being treated. As with Ebola, organisations. It will be important for coun-
there would also be a risk of corona testing tries in the region to develop a functioning
stations being attacked, as they are con- supply infrastructure and to build up stocks.
sidered places which spread the virus.
Factors that serve old, colonial patterns Economy
make things worse: the lack of solidarity in
Europe, the racist treatment of Africans in Lockdowns and border closures will mean
China and disturbing statements by French that economies that are already weak will
doctors that Africa would make a good test- face more overwhelming challenges and
ing ground for Covid vaccines. The anony- will slip into recession.
mous racist abuse on the Internet and Although a large portion of the population
verbal attacks by Donald Trump on Tedros works in agriculture, on average, half of gross
Ghebreyesus, the former Foreign Minister national product (GNP) is generated in cities.
of Ethiopia and now Director General of the If food prices are to rise as a result of short-
World Health Organization, are also seen ages, this will initially affect the urban popu-
on the continent as humiliating. In Africa, lation hardest, since they already lack the
xenophobic reactions are felt by the Chi- income they need to survive the lockdown.
nese, Europeans and humanitarian aid Regional trade in goods, although small,
workers who are being blamed for intro- has also been restricted by the Covid meas-
ducing the virus. This, in turn, affects the ures. When Somalia closed its border, trade
supply of healthcare. People might even in the common stimulant Qat collapsed,
refuse to receive humanitarian aid by inter- and Kenyan and Ethiopian cultivators were
national organisations as a result of the left without any income.
behaviour described above and for other A downturn in the global economy ap-
reasons: the spread of conspiracy theories, pears inevitable. The fall in the price of oil
shutting down journalists, the lack of trust could have positive effects, for example by
in state media, non-transparent communi- lowering fuel prices. However, since major
cation by the authorities and the repressive lenders are located in the Gulf States, an eco-
enforcement of curfews. nomic downturn in these countries will also
have a negative impact on the Horn of Africa.
Food security Many people in the Horn have some
social security in the form of money trans-
The Horn of Africa is persistently afflicted fers from family members working abroad.
by severe droughts, floods and famine; an Since unemployment is increasing world-
infestation of locusts is currently swarming wide, social security, healthcare, tuition
the region and fields cannot be cultivated fees and food security can no longer be
because of armed conflicts. Large swathes financed by remittances from abroad. The
of the population depend on food aid. Gulf States will be particularly relevant for
Ethiopia and Sudan have grain reserves, but migrant workers from the region. After the
these are not sufficient to feed the affected 2008 financial crisis and the Saudi Vision
population for a long period. In both coun- 2030 project, which aims to supply the
tries, less than ten percent of the popula- labour market in Saudi Arabia with local
tion is still dependent on humanitarian aid. workers, Saudi Arabia sent home more than
However, one third of the population of 300,000 people who were working in the
Somalia and 60 percent of South Sudan rely low-wage sector. Even now, thousands are
on external aid. Food prices are expected to being forced to return home to the Horn
rise as logistics centres, ports and transpor- from the Gulf States every week.
tation will all be affected by Covid-19 re- Governments that have so far paid little
strictions. As a result, pinch points and attention to the social security of their popu-
shortfalls in aid deliveries can be expected. lations now have an increasing obligation.
SWP Comment 20
May 2020
5Covid-19 aid packages on social media and the virus is being used
as an opportunity to encourage the use of
The EU, international financial institutions violence against the supposed guilty parties.
and the G20 have taken measures to cushion Since the onset of the Corona crisis, two
the most severe economic declines. The G20 different reactions have been observed in
countries want to introduce debt reschedul- countries with armed opposition groups.
ing for the least developed countries. This In Sudan, some of the armed opposition
will apply to $20 billion of debt and come groups are conducting peace negotiations
into force from May. And it could apply with the interim government and a politi-
to all the countries in the Horn. However, cal solution has become possible. Even
none of these countries was named in rela- those groups that are not currently involved
tion to the debt moratorium announced by in negotiations are following the UN Secre-
the International Monetary Fund (IMF). tary-General’s call for a temporary ceasefire.
Of the €3.25 billion the EU is making The response from jihadist groups such
available to African countries to deal with as al-Shabaab has been quite different, how-
the Covid-19 crisis, for the Horn of Africa, ever. They are highlighting the weaknesses
the majority will go to Sudan (€80 million), of the government and the AU Mission
€10 million will go to Ethiopia, €27 Million with increased attacks on security organs.
to Somalia and €5 million to South Sudan. In March, members of al-Shabaab brazenly
Ethiopia also received €76.5 million from met up for a multi-day strategy conference
the World Bank and South Sudan €7 mil- in Somalia. Al-Shabaab is able to use as
lion. Somalia, in particular, has benefitted political leverage humanitarian and medi-
from the debt relief programme. cal aid for the people suffering in the areas
Access to the international financial it controls.
institutions is particularly difficult for
Sudan. Thanks to its support for jihadist
groups such as al-Qaida and its involvement Recommendations
in attacks against the US embassies in
Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, the US placed The response to Covid-19 from all internal
the Bashir regime on its list of State Spon- and external actors involved in the Horn of
sors of Terrorism (SST) in 1993. Sudan is Africa should not be to rely on more isola-
currently in negotiations with the US ad- tionism, but on more networked thinking
ministration to be removed from the list. and action. Alongside short-term humani-
This would pave the way for debt relief and tarian aid from outside, long-term invest-
urgently needed financial support. But the ment in social security systems is also
negotiations are proving tough and com- required.
plex. With the current pandemic still ram- As can be seen in the Horn of Africa,
pant, it is all the more important to find individual philanthropists such as Jack Ma
alternative ways of providing support to or Bill Gates are providing more visible sup-
stabilise the country. port than state actors. However, in order
to meet the challenges, the work that con-
Conflicts tinues to be done by multilateral organi-
sations financed and controlled by the
The Horn of Africa is the most conflict- member states of the United Nations is
ridden region on the continent. At the same essential.
time, it hosts the most and largest peace
missions, both from the United Nations and What actors in the countries
the African Union. themselves should do
The situation in socially, ethnically or
religiously fragmented societies is currently The governments of Horn countries are
very worrying. Conspiracy theories abound faced with the challenge of how to best
SWP Comment 20
May 2020
6achieve two main goals: regime stability Germany and Europe
and protecting the population. If they now
focus only on keeping themselves in power There are several challenges for Germany
and neglect the population, the crisis could and Europe in dealing with Covid-19 in the
end in chaos. By contrast, investing in their Horn of Africa, but there are also opportu-
healthcare systems and communicating nities.
openly with the population would increase In recent years, Germany has proven to
acceptance for the measures they put in be a reliable partner for those Horn coun-
place and strengthen the legitimacy of the tries in transition. It should, therefore, now
government. Actively combatting corrup- move forward and not shy away from taken
tion, especially in the health sector, should on the role of aid coordinator within the
also be seen as an opportunity to gain the EU. This is especially true in Sudan, whose
population’s trust. In order to do this, situation as a transition state is fragile,
they will need to introduce anti-corruption but has enormous geostrategic importance.
measures, to develop structures and involve Hosting a Sudan conference that would put
the populace in transparently determining together a package of funds from Europe,
the country’s needs. the US, the Gulf States and also from inter-
Overcoming the Corona pandemic will national financial organisations would be a
require solidarity. If this is lacking, for step in the right direction.
example because the population mistrusts Options need to be developed for Sudan
the state power, then the virus quickly that give it to access the IMF’s aid fund
becomes ammunition for those who want despite being on the SST list. Europe could
to exploit it for selfish purposes and pro- also assist Sudan in negotiations to access
mote fragmentation. funds from international development orga-
Widening social safety nets will give nisations and the World Bank. In addition,
the governments greater legitimacy and Germany and Europe could lobby the Paris
increases the population’s trust in them. Club for debt relief. The bulk of Sudan’s
The latter is essential for governments to foreign debt – ranging from $50 to $60
impose and effectively implement measures billion – is owed to members states of the
and restrictions. This is the only way to Paris Club.
mobilise communities to ensure that infec- Debt relief is an important measure
tions are contained in the long-term. As that can be swiftly implemented to give
Ebola has shown, it is the local associations, African states greater financial leeway in
village and religious communities, families the Covid-19 crisis.
and clans that can effectively contribute to However, investments should not be
the containment of the virus and provide made without accompanying control
social support and care. It is, therefore, all mechanisms. Authoritarian and repressive
the more important that representatives governments should not be allowed to use
of religious communities, village leaders, Covid-19 aid measures to help them main-
women and youth associations as well as tain power. It is vital that these investments
neighbourhood committees are involved are tied to expanding social infrastructure
and provided with funds. Even if it were and democratic controls.
desirable to involve the police and military
in logistics and supply, this step must be The United Nations
considered carefully. Each case must be
examined individually to determine the ex- The United Nations should play a proactive
tent to which the security authorities are coordinating role in this acute crisis. It has
regarded as repressive organs that are en- a wealth of experience in coping with crises,
forcing the will of the authoritarian elites, ranging from containing epidemics to man-
or whether they have earned the trust of aging refugee camps and peace missions.
the population. Since the US government has stopped sup-
SWP Comment 20
May 2020
7porting the World Health Organization, it is
imperative that Germany and Europe step
up their efforts to provide multilateral solu-
tions and increase their funding.
AU and IGAD
The task force put together by the African
Union AU Agency for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) could become a perma-
© Stiftung Wissenschaft nent institution once this crisis abates and
und Politik, 2020 set itself the task of improving national
All rights reserved security systems and advancing intercon-
nectedness throughout the continent. The
This Comment reflects
Covid-19 pandemic could become a decisive
the author’s views.
turning point for the regional Intergovern-
The online version of mental Authority on Development (IGAD).
this publication contains The focus of its predecessor, IGADD, founded
functioning links to other in 1986, was on regional development and
SWP texts and other relevant
drought control. Concentrating on these
sources.
tasks would be forward-looking and preven-
SWP Comments are subject tative, in the event of further pandemics
to internal peer review, fact- and climate-related crises in the Horn of
checking and copy-editing. Africa.
For further information on
our quality control pro-
cedures, please visit the SWP
website: https://www.swp-
berlin.org/en/about-swp/
quality-management-for-
swp-publications/
SWP
Stiftung Wissenschaft und
Politik
German Institute for
International and
Security Affairs
Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4
10719 Berlin
Telephone +49 30 880 07-0
Fax +49 30 880 07-100
www.swp-berlin.org
swp@swp-berlin.org
ISSN 1861-1761
doi: 10.18449/2020C20
Translation by Martin Haynes
(English version of
SWP-Aktuell 30/2020)
Dr. Annette Weber is a Senior Fellow in the Middle East and Africa Division at SWP.
SWP Comment 20
May 2020
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