COVID-19 in African cities - Impacts, Responses and Policies Recommendations - United Nations Economic ...
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COVID-19 in African cities Impacts, Responses and Policies Recommendations ©Yahya Burugu/Mathare Roots Initiative
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES Impacts, Responses and Policies CONTRIBUTORS Supervision : Oumar Sylla, Edlam Abera Yemeru, Jean Pierre Elong Mbassi Contributors: Claude Ngomsi, François Yatta, Dmitry Pozhidaev, Lucia Kiwala, First published by United Nations Human Settlements Robert Ndugwa, Donatien Beguy, Programme (UN-Habitat) 2020 Dennis Mwaniki, Christophe Lalande, All rights reserved Gianluca Crispi, Marco Kamiya, Muhammad Gambo, Marios Pournaris, Jack Zulu, Yohannes Ghebru Disclaimer: The designations employed and the pre- Editor: Dr. Joseph Maseland sentation of material in this publication do not imply Reviewers: Xing Quan Zhang, Lucia the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part Kiwala, Benedict Arimah, Omoayena of the secretariat of the United Nations concerning the Odunbaku legal status of any county, territory, city or area or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers Published by: UN-HABITAT, UNCDF, or boundaries regarding its economic system or degree UCLG-Africa, UNECA of development. Excerpts may be reproduced without Layout: Michael Lusaba authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations Human Settlements Programme, the United Nations and its member states.
Table of Contents Executive summary 2 Introduction 4 1.African urbanization: A huge risk factor for COVID-19 7 1.1. Rapid and unplanned urbanization 7 1.2. Prevalence of slums and informal settlements 8 1.3. Access to basic services in urban areas 9 1.4. Informal employment, poverty and inequality 10 1.5. Density, mobility and market places: Contagion opportunities 11 2.The impacts of COVID-19 on cities 12 2.1. Health systems and coping measures 12 2.2. Economic and financial impacts 13 2.3. Potential impacts on the housing sector 16 2.4. Observing social and physical distance 16 2.5. Food security challenges in cities 17 2.6. Governance and institutional dimensions 18 2.7. Information Inequality 18 2.8 Increased vulnerability of women 19 3.Responses in addressing COVID-19 20 3.1. National responses in brief 20 3.2. Local and regional governments’ responses 22 4. Conclusions and recommendations 24 4.1. Conclusions 24 4.2. Policy Recommendations 24 Bibliography 27 References 29
Executive Summary COVID-19, a global pandemic declared urban population lived in slums or Other challenges include elevated risks by the World Health Organization informal settlements, which translates of eviction and homelessness, food (WHO), is crippling the global economy into about 257 million people across insecurity and information inequalities and upending people’s lives thereby the whole of Africa. Only 55% and especially among women. As first threatening sustainable development 47% of Africa’s urban residents have responders in tacking the urban impacts across all its dimensions. Africa is also access to basic sanitation services and of COVID-19, local authorities are key facing the dire consequences of the hand washing facilities respectively. actors in taking measures to tackle crisis, necessitating timely responses, Furthermore, most urban residents rely the crisis, yet many face capacity recovery and rebuilding policies and on the informal sector that employs constraints including a loss of up to 60% strategies. Globally, urban areas are the 71% of Africans, making them highly of their revenues. epicentres of the epidemic accounting vulnerable to loss of income and unable for the vast majority of the confirmed to abide by restrictions and lockdown To promptly and adequately address COVID-19 cases. This report looks at the measures. African cities often have the challenges of COVID-19 pandemic impacts, responses and policy pathways high population densities coupled in Africa at the urban scale and through related to COVID-19 in the context of with overcrowded public transport and local governments, six key responses cities in Africa. marketplaces making social distancing are recommended for short, medium almost impossible. These factors and long term interventions led by Africa is currently experiencing the combined make Africa’s cities hotbeds national and local governments with most rapid urban growth in the world. for COVID-19. the support of the African Union, The urban population increased more United Nations System and Regional than 10 times in six decades, from 53 COVID-19 has registered adverse Economic Communities (RECs)1. Apply million to 588 million during the period impacts in cities in multiple ways. local communication and community from 1960 to 2020.1 African cities are With Africa having low ratios of health engagement strategies 2. Support epidemiological foci of for COVID-19 professionals and hospital beds and SMEs and the informal economy 3. like other urban areas globally. However, most of its stock of pharmaceuticals Deepen decentralized responses the quality and nature of Africa’s being imported, health systems are to COVID-19 through strengthening urbanization exacerbates transmission highly constrained in their response local government capacities 4. Target rates of infectious diseases like to COVID-19. Inhabitants of slums informal settlements through data COVID-19 and makes containment and and informal settlements face driven contextualized measures 5. response measures considerably more heightened challenges in accessing Establish mechanisms to promote rapid difficult. healthcare services and products. access to housing and prevent forced From an economic perspective, urban evictions 6. Integrate urban planning The COVID-19 risk factors are acute based enterprises and sectors have and management as key priorities in African cities in part due to the undergone drastic reductions and for recovery and rebuilding strategies largely unplanned and poorly managed closures especially SMEs which have a towards long-term resilience. urbanization process resulting in constrained ability to absorb shocks.. widespread informal settlements Widespread loss of employment income and severe infrastructure and service has been registered with informal sector deficits. In 2019, about 47% of Africa’s workers being especially vulnerable. 1 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision, in https://population.un.org/wup/ 2
Introduction COVID-19 has produced adverse impacts at an unprecedented scale and the pandemic is likely to set off a historic global economic recession. So far, the measures taken worldwide to contain the spread of COVID-19 have affected the global value chains of manufacturing, transportation, retailing and consumption. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the anticipated recession of ‘The Great Lockdown of 2020’ is estimated at -3% compared to -0.1% during the global financial crisis of 2009.4 According to The world is facing an the International Labour Organization unprecedented health crisis due (ILO), an estimated 1.6 billion people © UN-HABITAT/Julius Mwelu to the spread of COVID-19. So employed in the informal economy - or far, the world has recorded over nearly half the global workforce - could seven million confirmed cases see their livelihoods destroyed due to the decline in working hours brought and over 400,000 fatalities.2 In on by lockdowns and curfews aimed at just a few months, the pandemic curbing the spread of COVID-19. has dramatically transformed the way people live, work, shop and © UN-HABITAT/ Benedict Otieno socialize globally. Urban areas are the epicentres of the epidemic and over 95% of the confirmed COVID-19 cases are in urban In Africa, where 163,699 positive cases areas.3 were recorded as of 31 May 2020,5 the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) estimated considerable economic damage, social costs and compromised overall well- being. The average GDP growth in Africa in 2020 is expected to fall from 3.2% to 1.8% but may contract even further. 2 Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science Engineering (2020) COVID-19 Dashboard; https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map. html 4 IMF (2020) World Economic Outlook (Chapter 3 UN-Habitat (2020) UN-Habitat COVID-19 1 The Great Economic Lockdown); https:// Response Plan; https://unhabitat.org/sites/ www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/ default/files/2020/04/final_un-habitat_ WEO/2020/April/English/text.ashx?la=en covid-19_response_plan.pdf 5 Africa CDC Dashboard, http://africacdc.org/ covid-19/ 4
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES Major economic sectors had already This inter-agency coordination platform been adversely affected with the global on risk communication and community The informal sector fall in oil prices which accounts for 40% engagement stated that the population which employs of region’s exports. The informal sector most at risk are those who depend 71 % which employs 71% of Africans could heavily on the informal economy, occupy face dire consequences, with up to areas prone to shocks, have inadequate 25 million people possibly falling into access to social services or political extreme poverty. As elsewhere, urban influence, have limited capacities of Africans could face areas in Africa are the main hotspots for and opportunities to cope and adapt dire consequences, the spread of COVID-19 and therefore with inadequate or no access to require specific focus as the region technologies. Migrants are also part of with up to 25 million defines and implements a continental this group and, according to the United people possibly falling response to the crisis. Nations Capital Development Fund into extreme poverty. (UNCDF),7 the flow of global remittances Estimates show that about 47% of to low- and middle-income countries Africa’s urban population live in slums may fall by about one fifth in 2020. or informal settlements in 2019, which translates into about 257 million urban So far, different measures have been residents living in slums or slum-like taken by national, sub-national and local conditions across the whole of Africa governments to contain the epidemic (Figure 3). Such conditions contribute and to address its impacts on vulnerable to accelerating COVID-19 transmission groups and on national economies. and present major challenges for Their implementation involved the response measures. The United Nations development of technical partnerships, socio-economic framework for the including the private sector and civil immediate response to COVID-19 society. After close to two months of considers the urban informal sector implementing COVID-19 responses, and the self-employed as among the some countries among those that ‘at risk’ population groups experiencing imposed a partial or full lockdown a high degree of socio-economic and restrictions on movements have marginalization. This is also the view of announced measures to reopen their the Regional Risk Communication and economies. UNECA8 is advocating for Communication Engagement working an effective COVID-19 lockdown exit group (RCCE). 6 strategy to mitigate the risks and protect vulnerable people. 6 RCCE (2020) COVID-19: How to include marginalized and vulnerable people in risk communication and community engagement; https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/COVID-19_ CommunityEngagement_130320.pdf 7 UNCDF (2020) COVID-19 changing the landscape for migrants and remittances; https://www.uncdf. org/article/5606/covid-19-changing-the-landscape-for-migrants-and-remittances 8 UNECA (2020) COVID-19: Lockdown exit strategies for Africa 5
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES © UNHabitat/Kirsten Milhahn The pandemic is an opportunity for economic response and recovery; and 3) This report reviews the key impacts a new generation of multilateralism ‘Recovering better’. of COVID-19 on African cities as well based on the subsidiarity principle and as the response measures taken so for effective decentralization to ensure African capital cities have proven to be far to identify innovative practices, that attention to the needs of citizens the main entry points and epicentres of solutions and opportunities to inform is incorporated in all governance COVID-19 and they are now the hubs and improve current and future recovery mechanisms and levels. At the country for the conception, implementation and and rebuilding strategies. In doing so, it level, UN Country Teams are working monitoring of COVID-19 responses. The draws on the call by the United Nations with donors to build partnerships with COVID-19 pandemic has shown that for the scaling up of international national and local governments, as well African Governments need to revisit solidarity and political commitment as communities and the private sector their urbanization perspectives and to ensure that people everywhere to ensure that the SDGs remain on track highlight the factors and actions that will have access to essential services and and that no one is left behind at the make their cities more resilient to future social protection. This is important to country or local level while addressing shocks and crises. To do so, they need strengthen multi-sectoral and multi- the COVID-19. to embark on interventions that improve dimensional international cooperation the planning and implementation of in supporting the region and its country Conscious of the importance of synergy existing policies with local authorities responses but, more importantly, to of actions, the UN Secretary-General, as their key partners, and recognize advance post-pandemic socio-economic António Guterres, has asked the the strategic role of community recovery and resilience. international community to focus on engagement in addressing and reducing three critical areas of action: 1) Tackling the pervasive urban, social and spatial the health emergency; 2) Addressing inequalities. the social impact of the pandemic, the 6
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES 1. African urbanization: A huge risk factor of COVID-19 The confirmed COVID 19 cases in 1.1. Rapid and unplanned urbanization Africa have reached the number of 163599 on the 31 of May While Africa is still the least urbanized continent, it is urbanizing very 2020.9 The number of confirmed rapidly. UN population projections show that, in 2020, 44% of Africa’s total cases increased by 2,038% population lives in areas defined as urban, compared to only 19% in 1960.10 with the disease spreading from This translates suggests a 10-fold increase, from 53 million urban residents in 1960 to 588 million in 2020. It is projected that the number of Africa’s airports to the major cities and urban residents will increase to 1.5 billion by 2050 and that Africa will pass then to secondary and third-tier the tipping point of 50% urban population around 2035. Small- and medium- cities. Subsequently, COVID-19 sized cities are the fastest growing ones and concentrate most of the urban in Africa, especially in its population in Africa. In 2018, only 221 African cities’ populations exceeded initial phases, is mostly a city- 300,000, while more than 10,000 cities and towns had less than 300,000 based disease. The quality and inhabitants. These towns face pronounced urban planning and management nature of Africa’s urbanization capacity challenges which may also constrain COVID-19 responses. presents specific challenges for addressing the pandemic. The type of urbanization in Africa both exacerbates transmission rates of Africa will pass the infectious diseases like COVID-19, tipping point of 50 and makes containment and response measures difficult. Some of the key factors for this include % the pace and extent of planning of urbanization, the dominance urban population of informal settlements, the around 2035 basic services and infrastructure deficits, the persistence of informal employment, among Historically, urbanization has been a transformative force of change and others. This section highlights is closely associated with structural transformation, innovation, economic these elements briefly given the growth and improved well-being. Cities enable the expansion of the implications for Africa’s response, productive sectors of the economy which is key in driving growth and decent recovery and rebuilding strategies. job creation. However, with inadequate urban planning and management, and where severe infrastructure and service deficits prevail with limited productive job opportunities and inadequate housing, urbanization can pose as risk factor. COVID-19 has vividly revealed that the characteristics of African urbanization have exacerbated the vulnerability of cities to the pandemic’s impacts, as many of these stem from systemic shortfalls in urban planning and management. 9 Word Health Organization (WHO) 10 UNDESA, 2018 7
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES One of the revealing trends regarding the state of urban 1.2. Prevalence of slums and informal planning in Africa is the low number of urban planning settlements experts available in the region. According to UN-Habitat and the African Planners Association,11 countries such As deliberated, informality in human settlements is prevalent in as Mauritius, Nigeria, South Africa and Zimbabwe have the region. In the East and West Africa regions, at least half of relatively high numbers of registered planners per 100,000 the urban population lives in slums or informal settlements. The inhabitants if compared with Burkina Faso, Malawi and same is true for about 3 out of 5 urban residents in Central Africa Uganda. However, in comparison with Australia, the United (see Figure 1). In absolute numbers, West Africa has the highest Kingdom and the United States of America, the ratios count of slum residents, while Southern Africa has the lowest, 94 of registered planners per 100,000 are very low. This million and 11 million people, respectively. has implications for the extent to which urban growth is planned in advance and fosters chaotic and unplanned development. Beyond the expertise, and even where Figure 1. Distribution of slum population in Africa urban planning policies and regulations are in place, poor enforcement is also a key challenge. 300 A further key challenge is that of gaps in financing the investments needed in Africa’s rapidly growing cities. As much as USD 93 billion (about one-third of which is for 225 maintenance) is required annually to finance the urban Total slum population (millions) transition in Africa, but this amount has an estimated 40% financing gap.12 Cities lack sufficient autonomy to mobilize and use revenues or incur long-term debt to support their development. Cities and local governments are not 150 financially equipped to respond to people’s needs and to provide better living conditions for all. In addition, they now face the added burden of responding to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. 75 Moreover, African local authorities and city managers usually lack the tools and capacities to handle equitable delivery of quality services or the means to effectively intervene in various crisis situations. While they may have 0 the mandate to lead immediate responses, this is typically Eastern Central Northern Southern Western Africa Sub-Saharan not accompanied by adequate financial, technological Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa and human resources or institutional and regulatory frameworks. This poses serious challenges in the Data source: Global Urban Indicators Database, UN-Habitat, 2020 context of the current COVID-19 and any future infectious epidemics or external crises. People living in slums and informal settlements are at heightened risk of contracting the COVID19. Whereas social and physical distancing and hand washing are essential precautions against 11 UN-Habitat and APA (2013) The state of planning in Africa; https:// spreading COVID-19, in urban slums where physical space is unhabitat.org/the-state-of-planning-in-africa constrained, rooms are often shared and poorly ventilated, while 12 Foster, Vivien; Briceno-Garmendia, Cecilia. 2010. Africa’s Infrastructure: A Time for Transformation. Africa Development water and sanitation services are inadequate or absent. Forum. World Bank. 8
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES 1.3. Access to basic services in urban areas Access to safe water, sanitation and Figure 2: Access to safe water in Africa other hygiene facilities is especially 87 critical to protecting populations during infectious disease outbreaks. Access to clean drinking water is considerably high % African urban population with access to improved drinking water which collection did not exceed a 30-minute round trip. in African urban areas. In 2017, 87% of the total African urban population had access to improved drinking AFRICAN URBAN RESIDENTS HAVE NO water which collection did not exceed ACCESS TO SAFE WATER SERVICES (69M) a 30-minute round trip.13 There are, however, regional differences, with Southern Africa having the highest level of access (99%) and Central Africa the lowest (73%). In absolute numbers, 6M about 69 million African urban residents have no access to safe water services, most of which are in Central Africa (22 NORTHERN million), West Africa (21 million) and AFRICA East Africa (19 million). UN-Habitat’s database shows that only 55% of all Africa’s urban residents have access to basic sanitation services, (i.e. improved sanitation facilities not shared with other households) 44% in sub- Saharan Africa) and access to hygiene facilities is low in Africa since only 47% of all urban residents have basic hand 21M washing facilities in their homes (37% in sub-Saharan Africa). This presents challenges for preventing the spread of WESTERN COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. AFRICA 22M 1M 19M CENTRAL SOUTHERN EASTERN AFRICA AFRICA AFRICA 13 UN-Habitat (2020) Urban Indicators Database 9
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES 1.4. Informal employment, poverty and inequality Informality, underemployment and the public assistance, in cash or in-kind, precarious nature of employment affect to survive. Per a sample survey of five almost all Africans of working age and slums in Nairobi conducted on 22 April most work is self-employment (80% in 2020, 81% of the residents already Africa overall).14 The informal sector suffered complete or partial loss of their is where 71% of African’s work is the jobs and incomes due to COVID-19. mainstay. 15 This poses significant But people have recurrent expenses for threats to families, exposing them to food, energy, water and even in slums food and health insecurity. Containment the rent still comes due at the end of the measures such as lockdowns, curfews month.16 Risks of housing eviction due 81 % and mandatory quarantines are to lack of income and consequential rent extremely difficult to enforce in African arrears are thus high. In Africa, the share cities where most people rely on casual of people renting their accommodation informal work with daily earnings can be as high as 70% in urban areas. covering critical expenses. of slum residents have With nearly half of all Africans still already suffered complete or Unlike inhabitants of countries with living on less than USD 1.25 a day,17 partial loss of their jobs and more advanced economies, informal poverty is also a dominant feature incomes due to COVID-19 economy workers in developing of the continent’s cities. Inequality nations lack the social protection remains a major challenge with South Per a sample survey of five slums in and support mechanisms if they lose Africa has the highest level of income Nairobi conducted on 22 April 2020, their livelihoods. They have neither inequality in the world. Of the 19 safety nets nor alternative incomes most income unequal countries in the and they often lack disposable cash world, 10 are in Africa. Furthermore, to stockpile food. Many of them need inequality is positively correlated with the size of urban settlements, with the larger cities characterized by higher levels of inequality. From an economic development perspective, urbanization yields significantly less value to the GDP in Africa than it does in Asia and the existing GDP growth does not translate into matching improvements in the quality of life. Persistent poverty and inequality also pose challenges for © SHUTTERSTOCK COVID-19 containment and responses given the underlying income and other deprivations. 14 Oxfam (2019), A tale of two continents. Fighting inequality in Africa 15 ECA (2020) COVID-19 in Africa: Protecting Lives and Economies 16 https://covid19africawatch.org/urbanization-and-covid19-in-africa/ 17 UN (2017) Africa Renewal. Combating Africa’s inequalities 10
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES 1.5. Density, mobility and market places: Contagion opportunities Urban areas with populations exceeding accounts for about 42.5% of the total and motorbikes. At peak hours, 500,000 inhabitants typically experience number of cases in Nigeria (2,624 out these urban public service vehicles higher population densities, higher built- of 6,175 reported cases as of 19 May are typically overcrowded making up area densities and overcrowding, all 2020) against zero cases in Maxixe in social distancing during pandemics of which presenting increased COVID-19 Mozambique. impossible. exposure risks. The three largest African cities, Cairo, Kinshasa and Lagos, Despite government efforts to improve Urban marketplaces play a key role have population densities in excess of mobility in Africa by introducing mass in the local economy and revenue 12,000 people per km2 but less built-up and energy-efficient transport such as generation. They are spaces for area per capita at only 54 m2. On the the light rail in Addis Ababa, trams in sociability, meetings, services provision other hand, a small town like Maxixe Casablanca, the underground metro in and marketing besides the sale of in Mozambique, where the population Cairo, Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) in Dar goods and production. In African cities, is below 100,000 has a population Es Salaam and promoting mass use open air marketplaces are typically density averaging about 1,300 persons of bicycles in Ouagadougou, several poorly designed and often informal. per km2 and 528 m2 of built-up area challenges remain. Urban mobility People use inadequate sanitation, per capita (see Fig. 2). The lower systems in Africa are fragmented in clean water is rare and water storage densities translate into significantly their coverage, service is poor, road tanks absent, electricity connections less congestion and lower COVID-19 design usually excludes non-motorized are unreliable, fire safety equipment is exposure risk. The prevailing density modes and pedestrians, and road safety lacking, pathways are narrow and there conditions, as well as the strength of the systems have shortfalls. In the absence is limited space between sellers. Such linkages with infection sources (such of high capacity public transport overcrowded marketplaces enhance the as international travel) could explain the options, mobility in African cities spread of transmissible diseases. current significant variations in reported depends on low- to medium-capacity COVID-19 cases. For example, Lagos informal services, especially minibuses Figure 3: Distribution of population density and built up area per capita in select cities 800 Sinjah, Sudan (pop 10m) Dakar (pop 1-5m) 100 Lagos (pop > 10m) Cairo (pop > 10m) 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Population Density (Person/Km2) Data Source : UN-Habitat Urban Indicators data base, 2020 11
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES 2. The impacts of COVID-19 on cities Cities are the engines of national 1.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people, Governments in Africa have identified economic development and growth. The compared to almost 6.0 in France. and diverted financial resources to productivity in African cities are much Also, 94% of Africa’s total stock of create additional medical care facilities, higher than in rural areas. Therefore, the pharmaceuticals is imported.19 With including repurposing hotels and other COVID-19 lockdowns impacts on African increasing restrictions or outright facilities for group confinements. cities are vast. African cities are home bans on exports of essential COVID-19 African entrepreneurs and governments to more than 588 million people,but supplies, the outbreak of COVID-19 have also started their own production the COVID-19 pandemic is impacting jeopardizes Africa’s access to these of face masks and materials for far more, due to the region’s strong life-saving medical supplies. Africa’s sanitization to reduce the gaps in linkages to rural areas and urban-rural urban dwellers, especially those living supply. connections. in slums and informal settlements, face challenges in accessing healthcare Africa also experienced international Although the urban productivity is much services and products, notably so in and internal private sector donations higher in Africa, cities’ overall economic the light of the COVID-19 related loss of and interventions in the response to the development level is low as infrastruture incomes. COVID-19 pandemic. Chinese billionaire is inadequate. The coronavirus and owner of Alibaba, Jack Ma donated pandemic has revealed a series of 6 million face masks, 1.1 million testing economic and social ailments in Africa’s Figure 3: Number of hospital beds kit and 60,000 protective gears to Africa. per 1000 people urban areas. This chapter will examine In Nigeria, the organized private sector the economic and social impacts of such as Guarantee Trust Bank (GTB) COVID-19 on African cities. built and transferred Isolation centres equipped with state of the art medical 2.1. Health systems and facilities to the Lagos State Government coping measures whilst other which included prominent citizens followed with generous Africa’s capacity to effectively contain donations to both the State and Federal the pandemic will largely depend on Government purses in combating the proactive responses and the resilience pandemic. of its health systems. While the global 1.8 threshold for health professionals is 23 per 10,000 inhabitants, 13 out of 47 African countries have less than five health professionals per 10,000 of the population.18 In addition, Africa has lower ratios of hospital beds and Number of hospital beds per intensive care units (ICUs) relative to 1,000 people in Africa other regions. On average, Africa has 18 https://www.who.int/workforcealliance/knowledge/resources/GHWA-a_universal_truth_report.pdf?ua=1 19 https://www.aetnainternational.com/en/about-us/explore/living-abroad/culture-lifestyle/health-care-quality-in-africa.html 12
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES 2.2. Economic and financial impacts of COVID-19 2.2.1. Contracted growth of urban For example, Johannesburg and Lagos, 2.2.2. Major cuts in urban jobs and economies the cities with the highest share of livelihoods traded sectors -and major gateways Africa’s cities account for more than for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) In March 2020, the ILO projected that 50% of the region’s GDP.20 At the country into Africa-, are expected to experience COVID-19 could lead to a loss of up to level, this statistic is even higher for negative growth. Nairobi also has a about 25 million jobs in Africa. However, countries such as Botswana, Sudan high share of the traded sector and, as the reality appears more severe and the and Tunisia. As such, the economic a secondary African access point for actual job losses could be significantly contribution of cities in terms of growth, FDI, is expected to contract by 5%. The higher. Urban-based sectors, particularly jobs and revenues is far higher in two other cities in the sample will see a manufacturing and services, which Africa than their share of the national decline of 3 to 4%. The urban economic currently account for 64% of the African population. Given their centrality in contraction will directly reduce GDP , are expected to be hit hard by urban development, the economic shock municipal revenues which, in turn, lead COVID-19 with substantial losses of resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic to less financial resources to deliver productive jobs. has a cascading impact on cities and urban services (see Fig. 4). their functions and vise-versa. In general, urban economies grow Figure 4: Projected growth and growth under COVID-19 conditions in selected African primary cities faster due to their concentration of modern and higher productivity sectors, such as manufacturing, services, 2020 (Projected) 2020 (Under COVID-19) telecommunications, transport etc. As the main economic hubs in most African countries and associated with Dar es Salaam 15 higher growth rates than the national 15 (14.8) average, primary cities will experience Growth in 2020 inder COVID-19, Percentage pronounced economic impacts due to Projected growth in 2020, percentage Nairobi (11.6) Dar es Salaam the lockdown and movement restriction 10 (10.7) 10 measures. As such, the economic Kampala (7.6) contraction will be more distinct in local economies with a higher share Nairobi (6.6) 5 5 of tradable activities, particularly Kampala (4.9) Lagos (3.7) manufacturing and services, and a Johannesburg higher proportion of the GDP or the GVA (1.3) (gross value added) contribution of the 0 0 informal sector, all other factors being equal. Lagos (-2.6) -5 -5 Johannesburg (-5.9) Source: UNCDF computations based on national statistics and IMF growth projections 20 UNECA, 2020 13
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES Small and medium-sized enterprises value and between 60% and 80% of 2.2.3. Shrinking local fiscal space (SMEs), accounting for 80% of total employment in Africa. The sector will employment, are especially vulnerable be hard hit, resulting in loss of income Local governments’ fiscal space has to the impact of the pandemic given for many (see Figure 4).23 The risks are three main components: (a) own their limited capacity to financially compounded by a likely spike in the cost source revenues, (b) fiscal transfers absorb systemic shocks. Particularly of living due to disruptions in supply from higher levels of government, affected are small businesses in trade, chains, threatening the livelihoods and and (c) borrowing. Many economic hospitality, tourism and manufacturing, social welfare of millions of Africans activities are concentrated in urban where a whopping 90% of businesses who depend on small businesses areas and constitute a key revenue expect at least a 10% decrease in their or the informal sector for their daily source of central government. But often 2020 revenues compared to 2019.21 survival. Since most of those working the revenue flows to cities are weak. 85% of Uganda’s SMEs have cash in the informal economy are women Consequently, underfunded cities are coverage sufficient for three months of and girls, particularly in low-paying common in Africa and their lack of operation or less – a situation which occupations such as market vendors, fiscal space for health crises like the is typical across the continent.22 With where women constitute 70% or more, COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating the the lockdowns in many countries the disparities between men and women crisis. Simulations based on data from approaching three months, the recovery based on social norms and gender the Africa Local Finance Observatory prospects for these enterprises are stereotypes are likely to worsen. This show that African local governments, on shrinking fast as they face decreases is also related to increased risk of the average, are projected to experience in their assets, workers, customers, and violence and harassment at work and of a drop in local finances in the order of market shares. stigmatization of certain categories of 65% under the first simulation (worst workers (e.g. immigrants and persons case scenario) and up to 30% under The informal sector represents between with disabilities). the second (best case scenario). This 35% and 50% of the region’s added suggests that, if current trends continue, local authorities could lose up to Figure 5: Contribution of informal sector output to non-agricultural Gross Value two-thirds of their financial resources. Added (GVA) However, these averages mask strong regional disparities. Figure 5 shows South Africa (2013) 6 the projected COVID-19 impact on the finances of local authorities by region: Burkina Faso (2000) 36 for East Africa USD 51 per capita and Cameroon (2003) 46 North Africa USD 150 per capita. These Senegal (2000) 49 two regions also show the largest Niger (2009) 52 declines in the best-case scenario, assuming that national government Togo (2000) 56 subsidies are maintained at the same Benin (2000) 62 level. Central Africa (USD 21 per capita) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 is projected to experiences the smallest Percentage of national gross value added declines in both scenarios among the five regions, reflecting a smaller Source: UNCDF based on Fourie, Frederick. (2018), The South African Informal Sector: contribution by the informal sector and/ Creating Jobs, Reducing Poverty. Cape Town: HSRC Press. or the impact of the many exemptions that formal businesses do benefit from. 21 Stats SA 2020, UNCDF2020a. 22 UNCDF 2020a 23 See the results of the Ecolog studies. 14
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES Figure 6: Average impact on local and regional Figure 7: Impact on the capital investment of local governments’ finances in the five regions of Africa and regional governments per size of population Central Southern West North East More than Between Between Between More than 100 000 and 200 000 and 500 000 and Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa 100 000 200 000 500 000 1000 000 1000 000 Inhabitants Inhabitants 0% Inhabitants Inhabitants Inhabitants 0% -10% -10% -20% -20% -30% -30% -40% -40% -50% -50% -60% -70% -60% -80% -70% -90% -80% -100% Simulation 1 Simulation 2 Simulation 1 Simulation 2 Source: Data from UCLG, Africa Local Finance Observatory Source: Data from UCLG Africa Local Finance Observatory The sources of revenues that will be The second element is the investment Figure 7 shows that cities with less than hit particularly hard include licenses expenditures of local governments 200,000 inhabitants are most impacted. and fees, local service taxes, user fees, (averaging USD 28 per capita) based The fact that variations in investment property taxes, and other revenues such on central government transfers. The spending in both simulations cover as for example, municipal property rents impacts of COVID-19 range from 63%, if exactly the variation of the number of and fines. These are expected to decline the current situation resumes, to 26% for subsidies from the national government by about 50%.24 With some of these an optimistic scenario. Given the limited shows that these small cities have revenues are intentionally foregone investment budgets in normal times, it no investment capacity. All financial by local governments as part of a is necessary for national governments resources are used for the operation of local economy relief package whereas to provide special grants dedicated to public services. others are dropped precipitously due to investment. diminished economic activity. 24 UNCDF 2020b 15
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES Small- and medium-sized cities, by some African countries in response ranging in size from 0.2 to 0.5 million to COVID-19. In Gabon, insufficient inhabitants, will experience the largest public information on the subsidy proportion of decline in financial criteria affected the implementation resources both due to the shrinkage of rental and mortgage payment of subsidies and transfers from the subsidies, raising the question of lack national government, and weak own of transparency. In Guinea, due to lack resources. of reliable data, the government26 was not able to estimate the total amount 2.3. Potential impacts on the In Kenya, required for the rental subsidies 30.5 % housing sector indicated in the National COVID-19 Response Plan. Adequate housing is essential for social distancing and good hygiene The current health crisis however opens practices. The COVID-19 pandemic is of households were unable prospects for a new type of recovery therefore hitting hardest those living in to pay their rent due to that focuses on creating a different informal settlements and the homeless, job losses attributable to society. It presents opportunities for the exacerbating the seriousness of the pre- Decade of Action to set and reach new COVID-19. existing housing crises already affecting milestones in reducing inequality and millions of people in Africa. As cities in poverty levels and to move towards restrict movements and suspend daily access to adequate housing for all as economic activities, staying at home is well as progressively delivering universal not always an option for all. Homeless human rights everywhere. people are particularly vulnerable to health pandemics and often have pre- 2.4. Observing social and existing health conditions. physical distance The impact of COVID-19 on incomes As part of their COVID-19 pandemic and jobs, particularly for low-income and response plans, African national © UN-HABITAT/Kirsten Milhahn informal workers, will result in mortgage and city governments have put in defaults and rental arrears and may lead Kenya are increasing access to water in place restrictions on movement and to forced evictions. In Kenya, 30.5% of informal settlements and in rural areas socializing. However, in many locations households were unable to pay their by providing water tanks, standpipes these restrictions are only partially rent due to job losses attributable to and by placing sanitizers in public followed, and flaunting social distancing COVID-19.25 Governments across Africa spaces. Gabon and Guinea have called guidelines is worryingly common. The seek to protect those most vulnerable for the suspension of rental fees for needs for many urban residents to to the pandemic. Ghana, Guinea vulnerable households. earn their daily income to pay for rent, and Gabon have announced that the food, school fees, hospital bills and government will cover the water bills of Lack of data on tenants and the other expenses are a clear challenge to its citizens, while ensuring stable water management of rents and mortgages enforcing the restrictions on movement and electricity supply. South Africa and constrain housing subsidies planned and physical proximity. 25 Survey on Socio Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Households Report; https://www.theelephant.info/documents/knbs-survey-on-socio-economic-impact- of-covid-19-on-households-report/ 26 Primature (2020) Plan de riposte économique à la crise sanitaire COVID-19, République de Guinée 16
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES 2.5. Food security challenges in cities The COVID-19 pandemic also This is particularly pertinent in countries exacerbates parallel ongoing crises, where health authorities indicated such as the locust invasion and floods in to the general population that fruits East Africa, the Boko Haram violence in and vegetables are key in increasing the Lake Chad region, and insecurity in immunity to COVID-19. Prices of long the Sahel region. According to the May shelf-life foods also increased due to 2020 update on the COVID-19 epidemic higher-income households scrambling by the Global Humanitarian Response to purchase and accumulate household Plan, it is estimated that, in 2019, around buffer stocks as a means of self- The COVID-19 pandemic 135 million people experienced acute insurance against hunger and lockdown also exacerbates food insecurity and a further 183 million uncertainty. The third channel is the parallel ongoing crises, were on the verge of a food crisis, of fact that all school children and the which some 60% in African countries unemployed youths are at home at such as the locust alone.27 Global, regional and national the same time on a 24-hour basis. invasion and floods in food supply chains are disrupted That means an increased reliance on East Africa, the Boko by the current mobility restrictions. food from the household (and not on Haram in Lake Chad Exporters and retailers of food products school meals) on a 24-hour basis. region, and insecurity in and sellers of seeds, fertilizers and Lowest income households, where the the Sahel region. insecticides, are experiencing decreased breadwinners are mostly employed in activity and income. Restaurant and bar the informal sector accompanied with operators also face similar challenges. daily or weekly wages, have seen a Landlocked countries are affected by reduction in the number of meals from shortages and delays in food imports three per day to one meal or maximum and declines in revenue generation two meals per day. through the food trade. Many African countries are now The population group mostly affected providing essential food supply to by COVID-19 restrictions in terms of vulnerable households, targeting mainly food security is the urban poor, who urban informal settlements. Those are not able to afford bulk buy and interventions also aim at ensuring that store their own food for subsistence. people have access to safety nets, but There are three main channels to also seeking to reduce social tensions explain the food restrictions for urban that could trigger food riots and other poor. The first channel has been the security crises. City authorities and local reduction in household incomes due to governments and institutions should be the lockdown for those in the informal supported by their central government sector, especially the self-employed in step-by-step and data-driven with low income sources and no safety approaches to helping the vulnerable net provision. The second channel and in balancing priorities related to is the attendant changes in prices of surveillance, lives and livelihoods. different types of foods resulting from lower supply and leading to scarcity. 27 2020 edition of the Global Report on Food Crises 17
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES 2.6. Governance and National COVID-19 Ministerial social interaction and generate new institutional dimensions Committee, Uganda’s Presidential forms of information inequality such Scientific and Strategic Advisory as, for example, access of students to 2.6.1. Overview of governance Committee and COVID-19 Presidential the Internet, computers or television Task Forces in other countries. In to attend online classes. In Africa, the Despite all its challenges, the COVID-19 South Africa, inter-governmental Statista28 group observed that there pandemic also has the potential to associations such as the South African were nearly 55.3 million TV households transform urban governance. The Local Government Association (SALGA) in 2015, a number which is expected current health crisis has highlighted the have been enlisted to disseminate to rise to almost 75 million by 2021. In critical role of national governments information, support its member East Africa, with a total 2014 population in responding to emergencies in cities, municipalities and advocate for their of 146.9 million and with 33.6 million as well as the equally crucial roles of interests with the national government. households, the TV penetration rate was subnational and local governments Kenya has established collaborative a mere 23%.29 The limited use of the in addressing the pandemic locally. mechanisms between the national and television platform makes a case for the COVID-19 has catapulted non-state county governments. Internet and mobile phones. But Internet actors (civil societies, community-and users in Africa are still comparatively faith-based organizations and the 2.7. Information Inequality few with a 39.3% penetration rate. In private sector) into prominent roles Nigeria, the largest economy and most that underscored the value of societal The challenges posed by the COVID-19 populous country in the region, Internet cooperation. It has also highlighted epidemic go beyond the health system. penetration is just 47%30. the importance of coordination and They include restrained mobility, reduced cooperation among different levels of government and sectoral institutions. © SHUTTERSTOCK 2.6.2. Coordination and cooperation among government levels and sectoral institutions Coordination and cooperation between Internet users in Africa different levels of government is essential when responding to are still comparatively emergencies and crises. Several few with a 39.3 % African governments have established institutional structures to coordinate actions, both vertically and horizontally, between sectoral institutions and ministries. These structures include penetration rate. taskforces such as Equatorial Guinea’s National Coronavirus Surveillance Technical Committee, Ethiopia’s 28 https://www.statista.com/statistics/287739/number-of-tv-households-in-sub-saharan-africa/ 29 https://advanced-television.com/2015/04/17/east-africa-tv-penetration-23/ 30 https://www.statista.com/statistics/484918/internet-user-reach-nigeria/ 18
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES 2.8 Increased vulnerability of women and girls As the pandemic hits low- and middle- education completion. COVID-19 and its income countries within the region the aftermath are only expected to worsen hardest, it is critical that the response Women aged 15 to 49 such outcomes and increase extreme acknowledges underlying inequalities are overrepresented in poverty.34 Women in slums tend to be that place women and girls at even urban slums and slum- in low paid, temporary and exploitative greater risk. The harsh realities of like settings in work, making them more likely to be 80 % gender inequality are particularly ‘working poor’ (employed but earning obvious in slums where the population less than USD 1.90 a day). Many are is most at-risk and least prepared. domestic workers who can’t render services remotely, thereby losing income Most countries have responded to of the 59 developing that enabled them to feed their families. COVID-19 with shelter-in-place orders, countries lockdowns and measures to curtail It is therefore critical that the response the spread. But urban inhabitants, acknowledges underlying inequalities especially slum-dwellers, have a hard that place women at even greater time complying, as their overcrowded risk. Staying at home, handwashing, housing often lacks basic utilities, like maintaining good hygiene and practicing water and sanitation. For women and social distancing is advised. However, girls who live in slums, the challenges 1.2 billion urban-dwellers globally lack are even greater as they face increased access to hygiene and handwashing domestic violence (already being facilities and 2.2 billion urban-dwellers reported) and unpaid care burdens.31 lack access to safely managed sanitation facilities. In the Kibera slum, Women aged 15 to 49 are residents have one latrine for 50 to 150 overrepresented in urban slums and people.35 slum-like settings in 80% of the 59 developing countries (UN-Habitat/ Ultimately, the worst-affected by the UN-Women, 2019).32 In Kibera, Kenya, pandemic will be those facing multiple the world’s fourth-most-populated and intersecting deprivations. Women slum, there are 116 women for every 100 and girls in slums face the double men. The figure is 120+ women per 100 whammy of greater exposure to the men in Gabon, Ghana, and Lesotho.33 virus, given their limited access to Women in slums are worse off than hygiene and space, while each day of their male slum and female non-slum lost income and education multiplies counterparts in access to employment, their vulnerabilities and pushes them health facilities, secure housing and further behind. 31 https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/covid-19-and-lockdowns 32 https://www.unwomen.org/-/media/headquarters/attachments/sections/library/publications/2020/harsh-realities-marginalized-women-in-cities-of-the- developing-world-en.pdf?la=en&vs=747#page=8 33 https://unhabitat.org/covid-19-exposes-the-harsh-realities-of-gender-inequality-in-slums 34 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/33622/Gender-Dimensions-of-the-COVID-19-Pandemic.pdf 35 https://www.fastcompany.com/90483973/what-will-coronavirus-do-to-one-of-africas-largest-slums 19
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES 3. Responses in addressing COVID-19 The Risk Communication and Community Engagement (RCCE) 3.1. National responses in brief task force (2017),36 reflecting on the Ebola responses by humanitarian actors, observed that urban contexts exhibit In their COVID-19 response plans, most African countries high levels of density, diversity, connectivity and change which instituted control measures ranging from restrictions on inter- create complex social dynamics that are constantly changing regional movements to total lockdowns at the local, provincial over time. This is what has also been observed with COVID-19. or national level. Some countries, Algeria for instance, Responses are of different dimensions, continually adjusted established lockdowns on its most highly affected and high- according to the disease’s trend, while alleviating the intrinsic risk areas. Table 1 shows an overview of the interventions by economic and fiscal consequences of responding to the African governments. Almost all African countries formulated demand of neighboring countries to continue trade. response plans and created taskforces to provide policy and strategic guidance to address the pandemic. Table 1. National measures put in place in Africa Measures Country Border closures and suspension of Algeria, Angola, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Cameroon, Chad, international flights Congo, Djibouti, DRC, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zimbabwe Schools closures Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Seychelles, South Sudan, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, State of emergency declared DRC, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Libya, Malawi, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa Lockdowns (total lock down or lock down Total Lockdowns: Angola, Botswana, Cape Verde (Boa Vista under quarantine), of high-risk areas/regions Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea, Liberia, Malawi, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Tunisia, Uganda, Zimbabwe. Partial lockdowns: Algeria (affecting Blida province); Benin (for 15 cities), DRC (Kinshasa), Gabon (Libreville), Ghana (larger Accra), Namibia (Erongo and Khom as regions), Nigeria (Lagos & Abuja), Sudan (Khartoum), Restriction of cross-region/ internal Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Eswatini, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Kenya, movements Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, 36 RCCE (2017) Learning from the Ebola Response in cities research, by L. Campbell and L. M. Morel; in https://www.alnap.org/system/files/content/resource/ files/main/alnap-urban-2017-ebola-communication-community-engagement.pdf 20
COVID-19 IN AFRICAN CITIES Ban on group activities and social Algeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Djibouti, gatherings Equatorial Guinea, Eswatini, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe Night curfews Algeria, Burkina Faso, Chad (select regions), Congo, Egypt, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Niger, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Togo, Uganda, Mandatory quarantine for inbound Benin, Burundi, Central African Republic, Eswatini, Kenya, Mozambique, Niger, travelers Tanzania, Tunisia, Zambia, Compulsory wearing of masks (in entire Countrywide: Cameroon, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, country or high-risk areas) Rwanda. Masks in high risk areas only: Benin, Ivory Coast (Abidjan) Close of all or some non-essential All closed: Cape Verde, Chad, Egypt, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Sao Tome and businesses (incl markets, restaurants, Principe, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, Zimbabwe; Restaurants & bars closed: Algeria, bars or markets) Burkina Faso, Gambia, Kenya, Libya Suspension of public transport or reduced Suspension of public transport: Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, capacity Uganda, Reduction in carrying capacity: Cameroon, Kenya, Mali, Economic relief measures for public Egypt, Gabon, Kenya, Liberia, Mauritania (through WFP), Mauritius, Morocco, and businesses (lowered interest rates, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Togo, Tunisia, Zambia, DRC tax reductions, bail outs of companies/ institutions, cash disbursements, food distribution, free water and electricity, Prisoners freed Ethiopia, Morocco, Nigeria, Tunisia, Cameroon Emergency fund created Ethiopia, Gabon, Liberia, Malawi (through WB), Mali, Mauritania (from WB), Morocco, Namibia, Niger (from WB), Nigeria, Rwanda (through IMF), Sao Tome and Principe (through WB), Senegal, South Sudan (through WB), Tunisia, Zambia, Introduction of new laws or guidelines for Ghana, Liberia, Madagascar, Mali, Nigeria, South Africa, enforcement of measures including price controls Direct health sector actions – financial Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Liberia, Burundi (Bujumbura), Kenya, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, support to ministry of health, health Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, worker recruitments, insurance for frontline workers, personnel equipment, disinfecting of cities, hand washing facilities in public areas Economic measures/cushions (e.g. Mauritius closure of stock markets) Rental subsidies to vulnerable households Gabon, Guinea Source: African countries’ COVID-19 response plans and subsequent measures 21
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