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COVID-19
Executive Briefing
Understand the COVID-19 outbreak and its impact
on the global economy
Last Updated: January 19, 2022
Fifty-second in the series
Copyright @ GlobalData PLC. All rights reserved.
Reproduction of part or all of this contents without permission is prohibited.
Key developments
▪ The virus has now spread to 199 countries with more than 270 million confirmed cases and more than 5.3
Infection rates continue to increase Slide 5
million deaths.
The US recorded the highest number of infections ▪ The number of confirmed cases in the US is over 50 million, with more than 800,000 deaths. Deaths in the US
Slide 6 – 9
and cases in India continue to rise and India are the highest.
▪ China has administered the most single doses of COVID-19 vaccines worldwide, followed by India and the US.
Total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered has
▪ China leads top economies in the percent of population that received one dose and two doses of vaccine.
surpassed total confirmed cases of COVID-19 Slide 10 – 16
▪ Gibraltar leads in fully vaccinating the largest percentage of its population, but herd immunity threshold
needs to be re-evaluated.
▪ Positive GDP growth is forecast in all countries; 2022 consensus forecast for global GDP growth is currently
Worldwide GDP forecast looks positive Slide 18 – 20
4.5%.
▪ According to the OECD, the nations stood at 5.5% in November 2021 as compared to 5.7% in October 2021.
Unemployment continues to be high Slide 21
Unemployment rate among G7 nations declined from 4.7% in October 2021 to 4.5% in November 2021
Top countries’ response to COVID-19 ▪ Managing lockdown and recovery measures in the world’s largest economies. Slide 22 – 27
▪ Asian nations top of GlobalData’s COVID-19 economic recovery scorecard
Economic recovery Slide 29 - 50
▪ Successful distribution of vaccines has resulted in an upwards revision of GDP growth
▪ Concern over the spread of COVID-19 remains volatile, so does the business optimism
GlobalData polls ▪ Hiring prospects continue to improve in 2022 Slide 52 – 60
▪ Offices are expected to return to at least 50% capacity in the next 3-6 months
Sector impact ▪ Sector insight summaries; cross sector indices Slide 62 - 75
2
Contents COVID-19 Infection Update ▪ Spread of COVID-19 ▪ Testing statistics by country ▪ COVID-19 vaccine Economic Impact ▪ Overview of top economies ▪ Stock market indices and GDP ▪ Unemployment GlobalData’s economic recovery scorecard ▪ Economic recovery across major nations GlobalData Polls ▪ Business optimism and future of work Sectoral Impact ▪ Sector insight summaries ▪ Cross sector indices ▪ Sector winners and losers Appendices
1. COVID-19 Infection Update
Infection Rates Continue to Rise
Impact of COVID-19 +/- change between 30 November and December 19, 2021
as of December 19, 2021
Deaths Recovered In Treatment
12,623,908 new cases in the
300 past 20 days
COUNTRIES/TERRITORIES AFFECTED
250 199
CONFIRMED CASES
200 274,679,470 + 12,623,908
Note: Confirmed cases of COVID-19 does not represent the true
extent of cases in each country. The number of confirmed cases is IN TREATMENT
Millions
150 heavily dependent on the extent of testing. 125,444,602 + 12,475,862
RECOVERED
100 143,880,898
DEATHS
50 5,353,970 + 148,046
0
Mar 20 Apr 20May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21Mar 21 Apr 21May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21Dec 21
Note: Recovered cases data is not available since Aug’2021
Source: GlobalData; 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE 5
COVID-19 is a Worldwide Problem
Affected Countries
as of December 19, 2021
Confirmed Recovered Deaths
Cases
United States 50,846,828 12,497,981 806,439
+2,431,229 -- +28,339
India 34,740,275 30,974,748 477,422
+159,443 -- +8,632
Brazil 22,212,343 18,100,232 617,754
+127,594 -- +3,378
United Kingdom 11,425,657 24,692 147,679
+1,181,041 -- +2,426
Russia 10,037,546 5,629,581 291,336
+600,896 -- +22,631
Turkey 9,173,089 5,478,185 80,415
+400,747 -- +3,780
France 8,730,140 415,705 122,478
+998,789 -- +2,481
Germany 6,812,746 3,659,510 108,285
+987,120 -- +7,225
Iran 6,170,979 3,467,765 131,083
Note: +57,787 -- +1,372
Confirmed cases of COVID-19 do not represent the true extent of cases in each country. The number of
confirmed cases is heavily dependent on the extent of testing. Spain 5,455,527 150,376 88,708
Recovered cases data is not available since Aug’2021 +301,604 -- +700
Source: GlobalData; 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE 6The United States Continues to Report the Highest Number of Total Confirmed Cases Globally
COVID-19 Confirmed Case Trajectories for Countries With The Highest Infection Numbers
Cumulative confirmed cases, by days since 100th case for top five countries by confirmed cases till the 660th day, as of December 19, 2021
50,000,000 Note: Confirmed cases of COVID-19 do not
represent the true extent of cases in each
45,000,000 country. The number of confirmed cases is
heavily dependent on the extent of testing.
40,000,000
35,000,000 United States
Confirmed cases
30,000,000 India
25,000,000 Brazil
20,000,000 United Kingdom
Russia
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640 660
Source: GlobalData; 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE 7GlobalData Pharma Analysis 14-Day Average Rates of Total Confirmed Cases, New Cases, and Deaths Per
▪ In the 4 weeks leading up to December
One Million Population
20, the UK reported the highest rates of Trends for top infected countries, 14-day average rates per one million population for Nov 22–Dec 19, 2021
new cases among the top 10 infected as of December 20, 2021
countries. While the UK’s fall wave has
Total Confirmed Cases, per 1
200,000
been driven by the Delta variant, more Nov 22–Dec 5
Million population
than 10,000 new Omicron cases were Dec 6–Dec 19
150,000
confirmed in the country as of
yesterday. Members of the Scientific
100,000
Advisory Group for Emergency warn
that hospital admissions could reach 50,000
3,000 per day without new measures to
curb the spread. 0
▪ France reported the second highest rate United Kingdom United States France Argentina Turkey Brazil Germany Iran Russia India
New cases, per 1 Million
1,400
of new cases among the top 10 infected
1,200 Nov 22–Dec 5
countries. As in the UK, France’s surge is population
Dec 6–Dec 19
driven by the Delta variant, although 1,000
Omicron has now gained a foothold 800
there. In response to the growing 600
Omicron threat, France has imposed 400
strict travel restrictions on UK visitors.
200
▪ The US reached a grim milestone last 0
week, surpassing 800,000 total deaths
Deaths, per 1 Million
United France Germany United States Turkey Russia Argentina Iran Brazil India
from COVID-19. After trending Kingdom
population
downward earlier in the fall, daily 4,000 Nov 22–Dec 5
confirmed cases are once again rising 3,000 Dec 6–Dec 19
and exceeded 202,000 on December 15. 2,000
Daily confirmed deaths have averaged 1,000
over 1,000 during the past several
0
weeks. Brazil Argentina United States United Russia France Iran Germany Turkey India
Kingdom 8
Source: GlobalDataDeaths in the US and India are the highest
COVID-19 Death Trajectories for Select Countries
Seven-day rolling average of new deaths, by days since 5th death for top five countries by variant of concern (Delta variant) till the 660th day, as of December 19, 2021
5000
4500 Note: COVID-19 deaths do not represent
the true extent of deaths in each country.
4000 The number of deaths is heavily
New Deaths (7 day rolling average)
dependent on the extent of testing and United States
3500 the attribution criteria used by each
country. United
3000
Kingdom
India
2500
2000 Germany
1500 Denmark
1000
500
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640 660
Days since 5th death
Source: GlobalData; 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE 9Testing for COVID-19
Tests Per Million of Population for Top Economies and Positive Test Rates
as of December 19, 2021
Tests Per million of Population for Top Economies Positive Test Rates (%)
United States 2,094,852 Brazil 33.91
China 170,266 Mexico 24.42
Japan 226,999 Spain 8.24
Germany 1,069,683 Germany 7.60
India 481,964 United States 7.33
United Kingdom 5,582,617 Japan 6.02
France 2,770,342 India 5.22
Italy 2,156,216 France 4.83
Brazil 308,138 Russia 4.28
Canada 1,341,625 Italy 4.13
Russia 1,607,465 Canada 3.73
South Korea 361,312 South Korea 3.05
Spain 1,416,194 United Kingdom 3.01
Australia 2,025,823 Australia 0.49
Mexico 124,924 China 0.04
Note: Positive test rate is derived by this formula: (total confirmed cases/total tests) x 100. For Test Per Million of Population for Top Economies, additions to the previously reported values are in a darker
shade. Canada, Japan, and South Korea reports data related to number of people tested.
The number of the arrow indicates the change in position (shown only for upward movement). For example, Germany and Russia has moved up one place since the last update.
Source: GlobalData; Government/Ministry of Health websites 10COVID-19 Vaccine Availability by Country
Pfizer/BioNTech Leads in Overall Approvals for COVID-19 Vaccines within Top Economies
as of December 19, 2021
Comirnaty EpiVacCorona Ad26COV Recombina Kconvac
BBIBP- COVID-19
(BNT162b2 CoronaVa Covaxin (Vector State CoviVac S1 Ad5-CoV nt COVID- (Shenzhen ZyCoV-D
mRNA-1273 AZD-1222 Sputnik V CorV vaccine 2
) c (Sinovac (Bharat Virology and (Chumako (Johnson (CanSino 19 Vaccine Kangtai (Zydus
(Moderna) (AstraZeneca) (Gamaleya) (Sinophar (Sinopharm
(Pfizer/ Biotech) Biotech) Biotechnology v Centre) & Biologics) (Chinese Biological Cadila)
m Group) Group)
BioNTech) Center) Johnson) CDC) Products)
US ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
China ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖
Japan ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
Germany ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
India ✖ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔
UK ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
France ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
Italy ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
Brazil ✔ ✖ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
Canada ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
Russia ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
South Korea ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
Spain ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
Australia ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
Mexico ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✖ ✖
11
Source: GlobalData Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center, Accessed December 19, 2021 ✔ Approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) ✖ Under review or not yet approvedChina Leads in Number of COVID-19 Vaccinations, While
▪ China has administered the Gibraltar Leads in Vaccinations Per 1,000 Population
most single doses of COVID- Top 10 Countries/ Regions, Total COVID-19 Top 10 Countries/Regions, COVID-19 Vaccine Doses
19 vaccines worldwide, Vaccine Doses Administered (N) Administered Per 1,000 Population
as of December 19, 2021 as of December 19, 2021
followed by India and the US.
However, the US has lost its
China 2674 Gibraltar 3182
position in top 10 countries
globally in the vaccination India 1373 Cuba 2458
rate per 1,000 population.
United States 494 Chile 2260
▪ Gibraltar has administered Brazil 325 United Arab Emirates 2252
the most single doses of
Indonesia 258 Malta 2069
COVID-19 vaccine per 1,000
Market
Market
population worldwide, Japan 198 Uruguay 2000
followed by Cuba and United
Arab Emirates. Germany 141 Iceland 1978
Mexico 140 Cayman Islands 1959
Russia 140 China 1920
Pakistan 138 Israel 1846
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Doses Administered (Millions) Doses Administered (Per 1,000 Population)
Note: Figures represent men and women, all ages. 12
Source: GlobalData; Our World In DataChina Leads Top Economies in Percent of Population that Received One Dose of Vaccine; and in
Percent of Population that Received Two Doses of Vaccine
% of Population Received One Dose and % of Population Received Two Doses for Top Economies
as of December 19, 2021
% of Population Received 1 Dose % of Population Received 2 Doses
China 84.8 China 83.1
South Korea 84.4 South Korea 81.2
Spain 82.6 Spain 80.4
Canada 82.5 Canada 79
Japan 79.4 Australia 78.2
Italy 79.3 Japan 77.6
Australia 78.8 Italy 73.5
France 77.6 France 70.4
Brazil 77.3 United Kingdom 70.4
United Kingdom 75.4 Germany 70.4
United States 72.7 Brazil 67.5
Germany 72.6 United States 61.8
Mexico 62.8 Mexico 52.8
India 59.4 Russia 43.3
Russia 49 India 40.3
Source: GlobalData; Government/Ministry of Health websites; Our World In Data 13Gibraltar Leads in Fully Vaccinating the Largest Percentage of
Its Population But Herd Immunity Threshold Needs to be Re-evaluated
▪ Globally, Gibraltar has the largest
percentage of its population to Top 10 Countries/ Regions, Proportion of the Population Fully Vaccinated (%) vs Herd Immunity Threshold,
have received all required doses of Men and Women, All Ages
as of December 19, 2021
the prescribed vaccine, followed by
United Arab Emirates and Malta.
▪ Gibraltar has the Gibraltar 119%
unusual distinction of
United Arab Emirates 92%
vaccinating over 100% of its
population most likely because it Malta 90%
is administering doses
to individuals who are traveling to Portugal 88%
Gibraltar for vacation or for work,
but are not technically counted Cayman Islands 88%
Market
as residents, thus the vaccination
rate can be 100%. Chile 87%
Cambodia 84%
Singapore 83%
China 83%
Brunei 83%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Proportion Fully Vaccinated (%)
Fully Vaccinated Herd Immunity Threshold
14
Source: GlobalData; Our World In DataAt Present Rate, It Will Take 273 Days to Fully Vaccinate 85% of
▪ At its present rate, the US will have the Total Population in the United States
been able to administer two doses as of December 20, 2021
of any vaccine to 85% of its entire
population within 273 days, a 400 Days to Reach % Receiving One Dose
timeframe which is continually
Days to Reach % Receiving Two Doses
drawn out due to decreasing 339
350
vaccination rates in adults, as it
appears that those willing to
receive a vaccine have already 300
273
received one. However, this rate
may increase significantly upon 250 238
EUA for children under the age of
Days
12 to be vaccinated. 200
▪ Importantly, a significant
146
percentage of adults in the US 150 131
remain hesitant to receive a COVID- 115
19 vaccine, with some surveys 100
indicating that up 30% of US adults
would “probably” or “never”
50
receive a COVID-19 vaccine. This
trend may dampen the benefit of
the vaccine rollout and may make -
the herd immunity target of 70% 75% 85% 95%
difficult to achieve. Percentage of Adult US Population Vaccinated
Note: Estimates were calculated for the US using a combination of publicly available information and data from GlobalData’s COVID-19
dashboard, including the number of individuals in the US having received one or two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, the number remaining to be
vaccinated, and the current vaccination rate.
15
Source: GlobalData; Our World In Data
https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/03/05/growing-share-of-americans-say-they-plan-to-get-a-COVID-19-vaccine--or-already-have/The US and Israel Are Seeing an Increase in Hospitalizations Due to the
GlobalData Pharma Analysis Delta Variant and Infections in Unvaccinated Individuals
▪ These charts depict the rate of Trends for Hospitalizations Rates vs Vaccine Implementation for the US and Israel
as of December 20, 2021
hospitalization versus the vaccine
rollout for the US and Israel.
▪ Both countries have shown
decreases in hospitalization
following vaccine implementation,
but with different initial results,
particularly as the Delta VoC has
taken hold.
▪ The daily hospitalization rate for
both countries stabilized and
subsequently decreased;
however, vaccine hesitancy and
removal of social distancing
measures caused increases in
hospitalizations, which are now
declining again, more so in Israel
than the US.
▪ The increase in hospitalizations was
worrisome as it was close to the
peak observed early in 2021. The
majority of hospitalizations and
deaths are occurring in unvaccinated
individuals, though the Delta and
Omicron variants are easily spread 16
regardless of vaccination status.
Source: GlobalData2. Economic Impact
Equity indices│ After a widespread crash, markets have returned to pre-COVID valuations
As of January 18, 2022. Indexed to 100 on January, 2020
Index Index
US (S&P 500 Index) China (Shanghai SE Composite) Japan (NIKKEI 225) Germany (DAX)
150 150
100 100
50 50
Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22
Index Index
150
India (NSE CNX NIFTY) France (CAC 40) UK (FTSE 100) Brazil (IBOVESPA) 150
100 100
50 50
Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22
Index Index
150 Italy (FTSE MIB) Canada (S&P/TSX 60) Russia (IMOEX) South Korea (KOSPI) 150
100 100
50 50
Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22
Source: GlobalData 182022 GDP growth is forecast to be positive in all countries
Maximum, Minimum and Mean of all new GDP growth estimates by week, as of January 10, 2022
World US China Japan
10 10
5 5
0 0
Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
10
Germany India UK France
10
5 5
0 0
Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
10
Italy Brazil Canada
10
5
5
0
0
Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
Note: GlobalData use a consensus-based forecasting methodology for its key macroeconomic indicators, which combines and standardizes inputs from up to 32 different contributors. 19
Source: GlobalData; BloombergConsensus expects a global recovery
Estimated 2022 GDP Growth
GDP data as of January 10, 2022
Real GDP Growth (%) Rate Projections Countries have positive GDP growth
Mean Estimate ▪ According to China’s General Administration of Customs, the country’s trade surplus rose to
4.2% $676.4 billion in 2021, the highest since records began in 1950. Exports during the year rose
Canada
by 29.9%, driven by higher shipments of mechanical and electronic products. (Jan 14)
1.2%
Brazil ▪ According to the ONS, the UK’s economy grew by 0.9% in November 2021, surpassing its
Italy 4.2% pre-pandemic level GDP. (Jan 14)
3.9% ▪ The World Bank projects that the Vietnamese economy will grow by 5.5% in 2022, following
France an estimated 2.6% growth recorded in 2021. (Jan 13)
4.7%
UK ▪ According to the World Bank, real GDP growth rate of the Indian economy is forecast at 8.3%
7.9% in FY22 and by 8.7% in FY23. (Jan 11)
India
4.0% ▪ US investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates that the Chinese economy will grow by 4.3%
Germany in 2022, which is a downward revision from its previous estimate of 4.8% due to expected
3.0% restrictions on business activity to contain the spread of the Omicron variant. (Jan 11)
Japan
5.0% ▪ UK thinktank, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), projects global
China economy growth at 4% in 2022, compared to an estimated 5.1% growth in 2021. (Jan 1)
4.5%
US ▪ Japanese government forecasts that the economy will grow by 3.2% in the fiscal year
4.5% 2022–23, which is an upward revision from the 2.2% previously estimated. (Dec 29)
Worldwide
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% ▪ Germany's Bundesbank projects that the economy will expand by 4.2% in 2022, which is
lower than its June projection of 5.2% due to supply-side constraints and spread of the new
variant. (Dec 17)
Note: GlobalData use a consensus-based forecasting methodology for its key macroeconomic indicators, which combines and standardizes inputs from up to 32 different contributors.
20
Source: GlobalData; national statistics offices; World Bank; IMFUnemployment rate declines marginally
Job Trends
as of December 14, 2021
Unemployment headlines
▪ According to the OECD, the unemployment rate in OECD nations stood at 5.5% in November 2021, compared to 5.7% in October 2021. Unemployment rate among G7
nations declined from 4.7% in October 2021 to 4.5% in November 2021. (Jan 17)
▪ The unemployment rate in the Euro area stood at 7.2% in November 2021, a marginal decline from 7.3% in October 2021, according to Eurostat. The rate declined during the
month in France (7.5% in Nov vs 7.6% in Oct), Germany (3.2% vs 3.3%), Spain (14.1% vs 14.4%), and Italy (9.2% vs 9.4%) among others. (Jan 13)
▪ 123,000 full-time jobs were added in Canada in December 2021, with the unemployment rate declining to 5.9%, according to Statistics Canada. 55,000 jobs were added in
the goods producing sector, 27,000 jobs in the constructions sector, and 17,000 jobs in the educational services during the month. (Jan 8)
▪ According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, the unemployment rate declined to its lowest level since January 2021, to 6.5% in November 2021 from 7.4% in October
2021. The number of people out of work were at 3.16 million during the month, which is 345,000 less compared to last month. (Jan 7)
▪ According to the US Labor Department, 199,000 jobs were added in December 2021, with the unemployment rate declining by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% in the US. Labor
force participation rate stood at 61.9% in December 2021, which was unchanged from the previous month but 1.5 percentage points lower when compared to February
2020. (Jan 7)
▪ The unemployment rate (adjusted values) in Germany declined to 3.2% in November 2021 from 3.3% in October 2021. The unemployment rates among men and women
stood at 3.6% and 2.9%, respectively, during the month according to Destatis. (Jan 4)
▪ According to the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the unemployment rate increased to a four-month high of 7.9% in December 2021, up from 7% in November
2021. The unemployment rate in urban and rural areas rose to 9.3% and 7.3%, respectively, in December 2021 from 8.2% and 6.4% in the previous month. (Jan 3)
▪ According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, 366,100 jobs were added in the country in November 2021, with the unemployment rate declining by 0.6 percentage points
over the previous month to 4.6%. (Dec 16)
21
Source: GlobalData; International Labour Organization; US Department of Labor; Goldman Sachs; IMFResponse to COVID-19: US and China
United States China
Confirmed cases 50,846,828 Confirmed cases 100,285
Deaths 806,439 Deaths 4,634
Recovered 12,497,981 Recovered 87,245
Managing lockdown Managing lockdown
▪ Wearing of masks in indoor public places has been made mandatory for all in ▪ The country gradually started easing restrictions from the city of Xi’an in the Henan
California, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Province. (Jan 16)
Washington. Indoor mask wearing is mandatory for unvaccinated people in ▪ Anyang, home to 5.5 million people in the Henan Province, has been put under
Connecticut. (Jan 14) lockdown. Total number of residents under strict quarantine in China increased to
▪ Canada and Curacao moved to the 'Level 4: COVID-19 Very High' category on Jan 20 million. (Jan 13)
10, 2022. (Jan 11) ▪ China bans four more flights operated by Air Canada from Vancouver to China from
Jan 17 onwards. (Jan 12)
▪ Major European nations including France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the
Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK continue to remain in the US ▪ China imposed travel curbs by suspending ticket sales for passenger trains from
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s Level 4 list. (Jan 5) the port city of Tianjin to the capital Beijing, after 21 COVID-19 cases were
reported in the port city. (Jan 10)
▪ Azerbaijan, Moldova, Mongolia, Romania, the Bahamas, Sint Maarten, Kenya, and
Suriname were moved to the 'Level 3: COVID-19 High' category. (Jan 5) ▪ Locked down the city of Xi’an and Yuzhou in the Henan Province. (Jan 5)
Recovery measures Recovery measures
▪ Overall fiscal stimulus worth $903.4 billion (6.1% of GDP).
▪ The Federal Reserve announced in December 2021 its plans to end its
pandemic-era bond purchases in March 2022, paving the way for three interest ▪ The People's Bank of China slashed its one-year loan prime rate by 5bps to 3.8% in
rate hikes by the end of 2022. (Dec 15) December 2021, to support growth amid property debt woes and persistent
COVID-19 outbreaks. (Dec 20)
▪ Overall stimulus package worth $7.8 trillion (37.2% of GDP).
Source: GlobalData; Client & Subject Matter Expert Interviews; Press Articles; OECD 22Response to COVID-19: Japan and Germany
Japan Germany
Confirmed cases 1,729,030 Confirmed cases 6,812,746
Deaths 18,375 Deaths 108,285
Recovered 858,305 Recovered 3,659,510
Managing lockdown Managing lockdown
▪ All cross-border returnees or travelers to Japan from countries where Omicron ▪ Effective January 9, 2022, Germany added 39 countries to the list of high-risk
variant is dominant are required to self-quarantine themselves in their own areas. Travelers from these countries will face tighter entry restrictions upon their
residence or accommodation from Jan 15 onwards. (Jan 15) arrival in Germany. (Jan 8)
▪ Extends entry ban on non-resident foreigners until the end of Feb 2022. (Jan 11) ▪ The UK, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zimbabwe,
▪ Effective Dec 5, 2021, Japanese nationals travelling to Japan from India, Greece, and South Africa moved to list of high-risk areas from Jan 4. (Dec 31)
Romania and four US states (Colorado, Hawaii, Minnesota, and New York) will have ▪ Officials have further tightened domestic restrictions nationwide. Individuals will
to undergo tightened quarantine regulations. (Dec 5) be asked to present proof of a booster vaccine to access certain non-essential
venues. Vaccinated and recovered individuals will also need to produce negative
▪ Effective from Dec 2, 2021, Japan has expanded its travel ban on foreigners with
COVID-19 test result to access these venues. (Jan 8)
Japanese resident status from ten southern African countries including South
Africa, Eswatini, Namibia, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Lesotho, Angola, ▪ Nationwide lockdown announced for all unvaccinated people banning access to all
Botswana and Zimbabwe. (Dec 1) except the essential services. (Dec 3)
Recovery measures Recovery measures
▪ Total stimulus package worth $3.4 trillion (67.6% of GDP). ▪ Approved a stimulus package worth $1.6 trillion. (41.8% of GDP)
▪ The Bank of Japan left its key short-term interest rate unchanged at -0.1% and kept ▪ The government is expecting to pay out about EUR22 billion (US$26 billion) as
the target for the 10-year Japanese government bond yield at around 0% in part of COVID-19 relief from January 2021 and June 2021 to companies and self-
December 2021. (Dec 17) employed people. (Nov 16)
Source: GlobalData; Client & Subject Matter Expert Interviews; Press Articles; OECD 23Response to COVID-19: India and UK
India United Kingdom
Confirmed cases 34,740,275 Confirmed cases 11,425,657
Deaths 477,422 Deaths 147,679
Recovered 30,974,748 Recovered N/A
Managing lockdown Managing lockdown
▪ As per India's revised travel guidelines (taking effect from January 11, 2022) all ▪ Restrictions eased in Wales— the number of people allowed in outdoor events
international passengers will be required to undergo home quarantine for seven increased to 500 from 50 from January 15 onwards, crowds are allowed to return
days, even if they test negative upon arrival at airport. (Jan 8) to sport events from January 21 onwards, nightclubs will reopen, and gathering in
pubs is no longer limited to six people from January 28 onwards.
▪ An air bubble arrangement between India and Saudi Arabia was effective from
January 1, 2022. (Dec 24) ▪ Restrictions eased in Scotland—the limit on the number of people in outdoor
events lifted from January 17 onwards, though the COVID-19 certification scheme
▪ Several Indian states (including Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Jharkhand,
remains in place.
and Karnataka, among others) extended their existing COVID-19 restrictions until
January 31, 2022. (Dec/Jan) ▪ England to scrap Plan B measures from January 26 onwards, which includes
compulsory face coverings in all indoor public places. Everyone must show vaccine
▪ Extends ban on scheduled international passenger flights till Jan 31, 2022. (Dec 9)
status or negative test result when entering nightclubs or any large-scale events,
▪ On November 30, 2021, India removed Bangladesh from its list of "at-risk" people should work from home, and all school staff and pupils must take two
countries. (Dec 1) lateral flow tests a week.
Recovery measures ▪ The UK govt. raised the official COVID-19 threat level from three to four on a five-
▪ Benchmark repo rate was kept unchanged at 4% in the Reserve Bank of India’s point scale due to the emergence of highly transmissible new strain. Score of five
December 2021 meeting. (Dec 8) indicates the healthcare system to be overwhelmed. (Dec 12)
▪ Approved total stimulus package worth $418.2 billion (16.3% of GDP). Recovery measures
▪ Stimulus package worth $995.9 billion. (37.8% of GDP)
▪ The Bank of England increased the bank rate by 15bps to 0.25% in December 2021
Source: GlobalData; Client & Subject Matter Expert Interviews; Press Articles; OECD for the first time since the onset of the pandemic, as inflation pressures mounted 24
in the country. (Dec 16)Response to COVID-19: France and Italy
France Italy
Confirmed cases 8,730,140 Confirmed cases 5,389,155
Deaths 122,478 Deaths 1345,641
Recovered 415,705 Recovered 4,147,979
Managing lockdown Managing lockdown
▪ Approved a law that requires people to have a vaccine certificate to enter public ▪ Super Green Pass has been made mandatory on all forms of public transport from
venues. (Jan 16) January 10 onwards and commuters are obliged to wear FFP2 mask. The pass is
▪ Imposed a mandatory 10-day quarantine on unvaccinated travelers coming to also required to access indoor and outdoor public venues. (Jan 10)
France from the US, as the French authorities have added the US to the COVID-19 ▪ All workers above 50 years of age in both the public and private sectors will only
red list of countries. (Jan 2) be able to access their workplaces with a Super Green Pass from February 15
▪ Remote working made compulsory where possible and indoor public events onwards. (Jan 5)
gathering limited to 2,000 people from January 3 onwards. (Dec 28) ▪ Travelers from Singapore will no longer be permitted to travel to Italy for
▪ French government has introduced a new list marked 'scarlet' that includes 10 non-essential purposes as the latter’s authorities have placed Singapore on the list
southern African countries including South Africa, Lesotho, Botswana, Zimbabwe, of countries that are highly affected by COVID-19 (List E). The tightened rules will
Mozambique, Namibia, Eswatini, Malawi, Zambia, and Mauritius. According to the remain effective until January 31, 2022. (Dec 18)
Interior Ministry, scarlet list countries are where there is a particularly active ▪ Extended the COVID-19 state of emergency until March 2022. Non-vaccinated
circulation of the virus and/or discovery of a variant likely to present a risk of people are required to show a proof of negative COVID-19 test (Green Pass) to
increased transmissibility. (Dec 4) access any local transport or public venues. (Dec 14)
Recovery measures Recovery measures
▪ The overall French stimulus package is worth $725.9 billion (28.0% of GDP). ▪ Announced stimulus package worth $1.1 trillion (60.9% of GDP).
▪ The government announced a new package of EUR20bn (US$23.67bn) to provide ▪ Approved stimulus package worth $48.7 billion to support the economy. (May 20)
aid to small businesses and sectors that have been widely impacted due to the ▪ Approved a stimulus package worth $37.7 billion to support the economy. (Mar
coronavirus pandemic. (Oct 29) 19)
Source: GlobalData; Client & Subject Matter Expert Interviews; Press Articles; OECD 25Response to COVID-19: Brazil and Canada
Brazil Canada
Confirmed cases 22,212,343 Confirmed cases 1,889,428
Death 617,754 Deaths 30,097
Recovered 18,100,232 Recovered 1,406,372
Managing lockdown Managing lockdown
▪ According to a new ordinance, international travelers must present proof of ▪ The Canadian government removed several entry exemptions for travelers who are
COVID-19 vaccination, a negative test result taken within 72 hours of boarding, and not fully vaccinated. (Jan 14)
a completed health declaration to enter Brazil. (Dec 22) ▪ Travel between Israel and Canada, for both Israelis and foreigners, is permitted as
Israel scraps its 'red list’. (Jan 6)
▪ Unvaccinated travelers arriving to Brazil by airplane must undergo a mandatory
five-day quarantine at their destination from December 11 onwards. (Dec 10) ▪ Lifts travel ban on foreigners from ten African countries including South Africa,
Mozambique, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Eswatini, Namibia, Nigeria, Malawi,
▪ Brazil announced on November 26, 2021, that the country's air borders with South and Egypt. (Dec 17)
Africa, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia and Zimbabwe have been closed.
▪ The Canadian government announced on Dec 4, 2021, that it would tweak newly
(Nov 30)
implemented restrictions on travel from South Africa, allowing Canadians to return
▪ The Brazilian carrier GOL Linhas Aereas announced that it is resuming its home if they have a negative molecular test taken within two days of departure
international flights to three destinations, Montevideo (Uruguay), Cancún and leave on flights transiting through Frankfurt on or before Dec 13, 2021. (Dec 5)
(Mexico), and Punta Cana (Dominican Rep.) in November 2021. In December 2021,
▪ On November 30, 2021, Canada banned foreign travelers from three more African
GOL envisages resuming flights to Buenos Aires, Argentina. (Nov 11)
countries including Egypt, Nigeria and Malawi over fears of the spread of the new
Recovery measures Omicron variant. (Dec 1)
▪ Brazil's central bank raised the Selic rate by 150 basis points to 9.25% on Recovery measures
December 8, 2021. It was the seventh consecutive interest rate hike in 2021. (Dec
8) ▪ Announced total stimulus package worth $326.1 billion (20.3% of GDP).
▪ Overall stimulus package worth $244 billion (17.8% of GDP). ▪ The Bank of Canada kept its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 0.25%. (Dec
8)
Source: GlobalData; Client & Subject Matter Expert Interviews; Press Articles; OECD 26Response to COVID-19: Russia and Spain
Russia Spain
Confirmed cases 10,037,546 Confirmed cases 5,455,527
Deaths 291,336 Deaths 88,708
Recovered 5,629,581 Recovered 150,376
Managing lockdown Managing lockdown
▪ Foreigners in Russia will be able to obtain a health pass to access public places. This ▪ All European Union and Schengen Area countries (except Switzerland) will
will be valid for six months. (Jan 16) continue to be a part of Spain’s COVID-19 risk list from January 17 to 23. (Jan 16)
▪ Travelers from Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, ▪ Extended health control measures have been imposed against the majority of third
South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe are barred from entering Russia from countries until the end of January 2022. Travelers from third countries who are
November 28, 2021. Russian nationals who have been to one of those countries or in unable to present a valid vaccination certificate will be denied entry when reaching
Hong Kong, China, Israel, and United Kingdom are permitted to enter but will be Spain for travel purposes. (Dec 30)
subject to a PCR test upon arrival and self-isolation until they have a confirmed ▪ Spanish authorities have announced that arrivals from Botswana, Eswatini,
negative result. (Nov 29) Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe will have to
▪ Russian authorities have announced the resumption of air travel with Argentina, quarantine for 10 days, with the possibility to leave isolation after a virus test on
Bangladesh, Brazil, Costa Rica and Mongolia; and also lifted all remaining restrictions day seven. (Nov 29)
on flights with Mexico, Cuba and Qatar from Dec 1, 2021. Trains to Finland to resume ▪ Unvaccinated British tourists will be banned from entering Spain from Dec 1, 2021.
from Dec 12, 2021. (Nov 22) (Nov 28)
▪ Authorities in several regions have extended the “non-working week" till the second ▪ Extended existing travel bans on arrivals from major third countries until
week of Nov 2021. (Nov 8) November 30, 2021. (Nov 1)
Recovery measures Recovery measures
▪ Russian government’s overall stimulus package worth $88.8 billion (6.1% of GDP). ▪ Announced a stimulus of $335.8 billion, equivalent to 26.9% of the country’s GDP.
▪ The Central Bank of Russia raised its benchmark policy rate by 100bps to 8.5% in
December 2021, the highest since September 2017. (Dec 17) ▪ Announced fresh stimulus package towards struggling sectors such as tourism,
restaurants, and small businesses worth $13.3 billion.
Source: GlobalData; Client & Subject Matter Expert Interviews; Press Articles; OECD 273. Sector Impact
Sector Summaries
Sector insight summaries
▪ Airbus now expects commercial aerospace to recover to pre-COVID levels between 2023 and 2025, led by single-aisle extra long-range aircraft.
The potential of further lockdowns and travel bans will impact the Primes unevenly, with Boeing having a higher exposure to the faster
recovering US domestic market. Omicron variant likely to complicate things further, returning to the travel bans of early 2020.
▪ Defense markets, although relatively shielded from both immediate demand and supply side shocks, are looking vulnerable in many parts of the
Aerospace, Defense &
world as national debates are ignited around fiscal priorities. However, countries with large domestic capacity are utilizing defense as a stimulus
Security
measure and to offset impact in related aerospace markets. Both the US & UK defense markets have seen significant uplift as a result.
▪ The future role of the military in supporting civil contingency planning is also under consideration, as is a redefinition of security to implicitly
encompass public health and biosecurity aspects. Western supply chain concerns stemming from Chinese-US rivalry have also been exacerbated
by COVID-19. This will result in greater FDI scrutiny, multi-sourcing, and onshoring in key areas such as microelectronics.
▪ The vaccination rollout in Western countries was leading to an opening up of society, with more social occasions and a return to the office for
some, leading to new incentives to buy more formal clothing, which has helped boost sales of retailers who have a compelling offer. Luxury
Apparel
retailers have seen boosts to sales in the APAC region in particular. As a new variant enters Europe there is the fear of further lockdowns hitting
sales at a peak period – the so-called Golden Quarter, with the prospect of more inflation cutting spending on discretionary items in Q1 2022.
▪ October’s sales finished broadly in line with expectations as inventory issues continued to bite. There was a marginal improvement in the SAAR
for October with the rate easing up to 74.8m from September’s 72.8m. However, for recent context the rate was still the lowest for October
Automotive since 2011 when markets were recovering from the global financial crisis. The sales declines that began in August were a watershed moment for
not only the 2021 outlook, but also for what 2022 and beyond will look like. Initial results for November look to be more of the same, but just
as supply issues are easing the markets have been thrown into more uncertainty due to the looming presence of the Omicron variant.
▪ The volume and velocity of channel shifts amid the pandemic has focused retail banks on operational agility. Redesigning core infrastructure to
be more modular has helped reduce interdependencies between processes, expediting time-to-market and limiting overall complexity and cost.
Banking & Payments As the low interest rate environment continues, agile tech platforms will help banks pivot to new business models, such as Bank-as-a-Service
(Baas) propositions and various types of B2B data sharing and/or enrichment. These alternative monetization strategies will bring data security
and privacy into even sharper focus, while financial wellness and ESG considerations will also become more important post-pandemic.
▪ Supported by stimulus packages, low interest rates, and other unprecedented policy measures across all major markets, the construction
industry is recovering from the severe disruption caused by COVID-19 lockdowns and other containment measures. The infrastructure and
Construction
residential sectors have been picking up quickly, but the commercial and industrial construction sectors have suffered from a drop in
investment, with planned projects being delayed or canceled.
30
Source: GlobalDataSector insight summaries
• Consumers continue to retreat within the home as new COVID-19 variants emerge, further fueling at-home food and beverage consumption.
Consumer Consumers continue to prioritize food staples with a long shelf life, household care products, and will likely remain cautious with their spending
in the future, inhibiting categories deemed ‘non-essential’.
• This year, all channels will continue to gradually recover from the impacts of 2020, though consumers remain cautious of both their social
Foodservice interaction and spend, as new variants continue to emerge. Potential future lockdown measures will put strain on both the profit and cost
sectors and will place a renewed focus on the home delivery channel.
• There is growing pressure on reinsurance rates as the impact of COVID-19 has meant global reinsurers are unable to recover the cost of capital
Insurance in 2020. Demand from primary insurers impacted by COVID-19 is also anticipated to increase the pressure on rates as the cost of claims begins
to mount.
• While companies continue to report recovery in revenues, it continues to be region-specific, with US recovery proving to be more fragile, due to
rising Delta cases. The emergence of Omicron adds further uncertainty.
• Companies are reporting supply chain issues, increasing costs and reducing profitability.
Medical/Healthcare • In Vitro Diagnostics continues to account for the vast majority of COVID-19 medical devices, accounting for 67% of devices in development,
followed by Anesthetic and Respiratory Devices and Hospital IT. This is reflected in device approvals in the last 6 months, with 89% of new
devices being In Vitro Diagnostics, likely as a result of these Class 2 devices being more easily able to obtain approval or emergency use
authorizations compared to other medical devices.
• Prices of all key commodities grew strongly in 2021, helped by rising demand as well as supply constraints in many cases. However, there were
declines in the latter part of the year in gold, platinum, and particularly iron ore. After a steep rise in iron ore prices in the first half of the year,
the iron price fell below $100/t in November due to continued steel production curbs in China as the country looked to reduce pollution and
Mining
power use. In contrast, the price of aluminum and thermal and coking coal have continued to rise, driven by increased demand and supply
constraints. The rise in thermal coal prices was so steep that it led to an intervention by the Chinese government, ordering its major miners to
cut prices and increase output.
31
Source: GlobalDataSector insight summaries
• Surging natural gas prices on European and Asian spot markets have taken the focus away from COVID-19 of late. The two major futures
contracts – TTF and JKM – were still trading at record high levels in November 2021. Crude oil prices, however, tumbled late last month due to
Oil & Gas
concerns over global economic recovery amid the discovery of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. High inflation and uncertainty over near-term
crude demand from the pandemic cloud keep the industry on an edge going into 2022.
• Shelf-stable food and household care packaging continue to be in high demand, while paper & board is anticipated to experience the greatest
Packaging volume growth this year. Manufacturers should continue to develop hygienic packaging formats as well as packaging optimized for the growing
e-commerce channel.
• The race for effective treatments and vaccines continues. Currently there are 6,093 clinical trials for COVID-19 and promising clinical data
continue to emerge for COVID-19 vaccines. While large trials have already had data readouts, vaccine manufacturing is underway and
Pharma
emergency approvals have been given for multiple vaccines. Clinical trials were disrupted at the height of the pandemic. Trial disruption is
levelling off, with 1,072 trials still disrupted and 633 Pharma/Biotech companies and CROs associated with disrupted clinical trials.
• Sustained recovery in electricity demand for most countries has brought the demand close to 2019 levels. Countries like India and China have
Power seen a much faster rebound and demand has risen to levels above that in 2019. Renewable energy capacity addition is estimated to be 4%
higher in 2020 as compared to 2019.
• Supply chain issues, with stock shortages, caused by outbreaks of the virus in various APAC countries closing down factories, and bottlenecks in
shipping, has led to stock disruption and price inflation. Consumers have brought forward buying for Christmas and other Q4 holidays but, their
Retail
discretionary spending is being restricted by higher food and energy costs. This is likely to last well into Q1 2022 placing further pressures on
non-food retailers.
• The sports industry is proving resilient in the face of COVID-19, with over $12.9bn spent on new or existing sponsorship agreements across the
industry. Meanwhile, media rights renewals for major sports and sporting properties remain strong, evidenced by the NFL’s 10 year, $100bn deal
Sports
signed in Q1 2021, while the English Premier League is expected to renew its domestic media rights packages without a tender on the same
financial terms.
32
Source: GlobalDataSector insight summaries
▪ GlobalData has analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the leading companies operating in 17 separate sectors within technology, media, and
telecoms (TMT), with all TMT sectors negatively impacted by COVID-19 in 2020, although IT Services has been the hardest hit.
Technology, Media &
Telecom ▪ Despite this, some areas — including telecom services, some telecom infrastructure, and cloud-based solutions — are holding up well or
growing. Operators moved forward CAPEX to support critical connectivity requirements and are now restarting 5G, Edge Computing and other
initiatives temporarily put on hold or slowed down.
▪ After a summer that created hope for many global destinations due to vaccine rollouts and improved traveler confidence, the outlook now looks
significantly bleaker with the global outbreak of the Omicron variant. As infection rates surge across European countries, a sustained rebound
from the pandemic looks less likely as many destinations reimplement restrictions upon international travel, and the Netherlands goes back into
a national lockdown.
▪ Ski tourism now looks to be a major casualty of the Omicron variant. Skiing hotspots like France, Italy, and Switzerland will be fearing the worst,
Travel & Tourism with many relying on the upcoming winter months to offset some of the losses experienced in the last two seasons. The COVID-19 situation in
Germany could be a key deciding factor on the success of the upcoming European ski season. Germany has more skiers than any other country
in Europe, making this source market incredibly important for ski destinations.
▪ Domestic tourism remains an area of intense focus and has led to significant price surges in some markets. However, travel intermediaries are
engaging in aggressive marketing towards international travel with some advertising for as late as 2023 to increase revenue. However, even
though some borders are re-opening, the pandemic's uncertainty means that many will opt for a staycation in 2022.
▪ Wealth managers are adapting to remote working while managing clients at a key moment of truth: portfolio losses. Millennials are
experiencing their first severe market downturn. Baby boomers will appreciate help on how to manage their investments online and assurance
Wealth Management that digital channels are effective.
▪ Merger and acquisition activity has slowed due to the crisis but has not derailed the giant E-Trade-Morgan Stanley or TD-Ameritrade-Charles
Schwab deals and smaller robo-advisers are increasingly being targeted for acquisition.
33
Source: GlobalDataCross-sector Indices
Most sectors now exceed January 2020 valuations
Comparison of GlobalData’s sector indices since January 2, 2020
• Pharma and Medical’s recovery is based on availability of an effective treatment or
vaccine and the continued recovery of elective surgical procedures and restoration of
Change in Equity Index since January 2020 home healthcare.
• The Tech industry's valuation reflects increased demand for telecoms services, security
Technology
solutions, and cloud-based tools, and speculation that any recovery will require
Healthcare significant technology adoption.
Oil & Gas • Retail stock prices are holding up better than others; markets expect a quicker return
to normal than other sectors.
Packaging • Mining companies have benefited from rising prices for gold and other metals
Construction • In energy markets, Power has fared much better than Oil & Gas. Sustainable energy
Insurance use increased during lockdowns and may feature in many stimulus packages. Oil &
Gas’s short-term woes may continue long into the future if this shift to renewables
Apparel materialises.
Mining • Continued economic uncertainty could have profound effects on global
Banking & Payments Construction. Although construction work is resuming in most major markets, issues
including social distancing measures and supply-chain disruptions prevent activity from
Automotive proceeding at full pace. New projects could also be pushed back or delayed
ADS indefinitely.
Medical • Insurance is impacted on two main fronts, the first being an increased cost of claims
stemming from COVID-19. The second will be through economic recession reducing
Power new business opportunities and impacting solvency ratios through capital market
Retail volatility.
Consumer • Despite major shifts away from on-premise to delivery services, Foodservice is hit due
to lockdown restrictions.
Foodservice • Travel & Tourism is one of hardest hit of all sectors. Confidence in the sector remains
Travel & Tourism low as concerns about the length of the recovery period continue to grow. This
Pharma continues to spill over to Aerospace, but pain is partially mitigated here via exposure
to Defense
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% • Automotive's performance, in a down market, can attributed to hype around the
electric vehicle market's prospects.
as of 29 December 2021. ADS= Aerospace, Defense & Security 35
Source: GlobalDataEquity indices have recovered across sectors
COVID-19 hit all sectors, but recoveries take different trajectories
Aerospace, Defense & Security Apparel Automotive Banking & Payments Construction Consumer Index
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21
Foodservice Healthcare Insurance Medical Mining Oil & Gas Index
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21
Packaging Pharma Power Retail Technology Travel & Tourism Index
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21
as of 29 December 2021, rebased to 100 on 2 Jan 2020. 36
Source: GlobalDataM&A volumes have recovered for many sectors; outlook for 2022 remains strong
Technology acquisitions will led the recovery in H1 2021
• Unlike other indices, the M&A index contains no forward-looking
Change in M&A Index by Sectors since January 2020 sentiment. Equity prices should reflect expectations of future
performance, as will news and company filings. Even the available jobs
Apparel
index represents a company’s confidence in future requirements for
Foodservice staffing levels.
Travel & Tourism • Consequently, the deals index showed the steepest decline since
Automotive January 2020 in the first half of 2020.
Construction • However, the M&A market recovered strongly in the second half of 2020
Consumer and this has continued into 2021.
Packaging
• Business priorities have changed and this will impact acquirer's M&A
strategy. Expect more investments in weak business areas highlighted by
ADS COVID-19 crisis, e.g. digitalization and cybersecurity.
Power • Well-capitalised US and Chinese big tech firms went on a spending spree
Oil & Gas in H2 2020 and this continued in 2021. China's plans will be hindered
Mining due to increased scrutiny by regulators.
Retail • There will be an increase in carve-out deals to divest non-core business
units across sectors, as most enterprises focus on profitability.
Banking & Payments
• Increased M&A activity has driven higher valuations in both the public
Technology and private markets.
Pharma • VC markets saw record levels of activity in 2021, driven by still plentiful
Insurance liquidity and the entry of non-traditional investors.
Healthcare
Medical
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
as of 29 December 2021. ADS= Aerospace, Defense & Security 37
Source: GlobalDataMonthly M&A volumes
Deals index represents volume of completed or announced deals on a monthly basis, rebased to 100 in Jan 2019
Aerospace, Defense & Security Apparel Automotive Banking & Payments Construction Consumer Index
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21
Foodservice Healthcare Insurance Medical Mining Oil & Gas Index
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21
Packaging Pharma Power Retail Technology Travel & Tourism Index
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21
as of 29 December 2021 38
Source: GlobalDataNews, jobs, and filing sentiments have turned positive in most sectors
YTD change in our unique alternative data indices show a recovering trend for most sectors, but not all are equal
Available Jobs News Sentiment Filings Sentiment
Travel & Tourism Apparel Automotive
Technology Travel & Tourism Insurance
Banking & Payments Retail Power
Mining Insurance Pharma
Automotive Foodservice Packaging
Insurance Healthcare Healthcare
ADS Power Construction
Power Packaging Consumer
Healthcare Mining Banking & Payments
Construction Banking & Payments Medical
Medical Consumer Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas ADS Technology
Pharma Automotive Apparel
Packaging Oil & Gas Travel & Tourism
Consumer Pharma Mining
Apparel Construction ADS
Retail Medical Retail
Foodservice Technology Foodservice
0% 50% 100% -20% 0% 20% 0% 100% 200%
As of 29 December 2021; ADS= Aerospace, Defense & Security 39
Source: GlobalDataActive jobs have recovered for most sectors
Jobs index represents adjusted active jobs per company
Aerospace, Defense & Security Apparel Automotive Banking & Payments Construction Consumer Index
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21
Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21
Foodservice Healthcare Medical Mining Oil & Gas Index
Insurance
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21
Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21
Packaging Pharma Power Retail Technology Travel & Tourism Index
250
250
200
200
150
150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21 Jan/20 Jul/20 Jan/21 Jul/21
as of 29 December 2021, rebased to 100 on 1 Jan 2020. 40
Source: GlobalDataYou can also read
