Covered Bonds Outlook Midyear 2021: Credit Stable Despite Waning Support - Antonio Farina Marta Escutia Andrew South - S&P Global

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Covered Bonds Outlook Midyear 2021: Credit Stable Despite Waning Support - Antonio Farina Marta Escutia Andrew South - S&P Global
Covered Bonds Outlook Midyear 2021:    Antonio Farina
                                       Marta Escutia

Credit Stable Despite Waning Support   Andrew South
                                       July 23, 2021
Contents

Key Takeaways          3
Economic Conditions    4
Credit Performance     8
Issuance              11
Harmonization         15
Ratings Outlook       16
Related Research      20

                           2
Key Takeaways
    We expect investor-placed issuance to stay depressed until 2023 as the unprecedented monetary policy
    support aimed at combating the COVID-19 pandemic unwinds.
    Economic conditions are supportive and long-term scarring to the economy should be limited by Europe's
    coordinated fiscal and monetary policy response, enabling the region to close the output gap by 2024.
    Eurozone inflation has spiked since the start of the year due to one-off factors. However, we expect the
    momentum to abate through to the end of 2021. The ECB will likely continue net asset purchases through 2023
    and refrain from hiking rates before late 2024.
    We expect only a limited credit impact on prime residential mortgage loans once this fiscal and regulatory
    support wanes, because payment moratoria have already expired in several European countries, and there is
    still no evidence of any cliff effects in the labor market from the phasing out of short-time work schemes.
    We expect a more severe impact on the performance of commercial real estate assets, especially for the retail
    and lodging sectors, but cover pools’ exposures are limited.
    Our outlook remains stable, because the credit enhancement available to most of the programs that we rate
    significantly exceeds the level required to maintain the current ratings. The presence of unused notches
    reduces the risk of covered bond downgrades even if there are limited downgrades of issuing banks.

                                                                                                                    3
Economic Conditions | The Recovery Is Now Moving To Services
– Increasing vaccination rates are allowing European governments to gradually lift social-distancing restrictions.
– Services sectors are catching up with construction and manufacturing, where momentum has slowed due to semi-conductor shortages.
– The main risks stem from the impact of COVID-19 variants and financing conditions when central banks reduce their bond purchases.

                                                                                                                 Eurozone PMI Highlights Sectoral Rotation From Industry To
Infections Are Low But Rising Again In Parts Of Europe
                                                                                                                 Services-Led Growth Has Started
                                 U.S.       U.K.        European Union          South America        Asia                                                               PMI manufacturing      PMI services

                         1,000                                                                                                                    70

                          900
                                                                                                                                                  60
                          800

                                                                                                                    Index: above 50 = expanding
 New cases per million

                          700                                                                                                                     50
                          600
                          500                                                                                                                     40

                          400
                                                                                                                                                  30
                          300
                          200                                                                                                                     20
                          100
                            0                                                                                                                     10
                                 0         10        20         30         40         50        60          70
                                                                                                                                                  0
                                        Share of population that received at least one vaccine dose (%)
                                                                                                                                                   08/2019   11/2019   02/2020   05/2020    08/2020   11/2020   02/2021   05/2021

Latest data as of July 17, 2021. Source: Our World In Data, S&P Global Ratings.                                  PMI--Purchasing managers' index. Source: IHS Markit, S&P Global Ratings. Economic Outlook Europe Q3
                                                                                                                 2021: The Grand Reopening, June 24, 2021.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4
Economic Conditions | Long-Term Scarring Likely To Be Limited

                                                                 Next Generation EU: Cumulative GDP Impact By 2026 Under Our
                                                                 High-Impact Scenario
– We expect eurozone economic growth of 4.4% this year and           Percentage point
                                                                     increase
  4.5% in 2022, after a 6.7% contraction in 2020.                        20
                                                                                                                                                             FINLAND

– External demand remains dynamic as the eurozone's main                 15
                                                                                                                                          SWEDEN
                                                                                                                                                                            ESTONIA
                                                                         10
  trading partners, like the U.S. and China, recover from the            5                                     North Sea
                                                                                                                                                                            LATVIA

  pandemic and vaccination rollouts continue to pave the                 0
                                                                                   IRELAND
                                                                                                             DENMARK
                                                                                                                                                                            LITHUANIA
                                                                                                             NETHERLANDS
  way for a sustainable reopening of the economy.
                                                                       Atlantic Ocean

– Long-term scarring to the economy should be limited by                                     BELGIUM                         GERMANY
                                                                                                                                                   POLAND

  Europe's coordinated fiscal and monetary policy response,                             LUXEMBOURG
                                                                                                                                         CZECH

  enabling the region to close the output gap by 2024.
                                                                                                                                          REP.
                                                                                                                                                                                     SLOVAKIA

                                                                                                        FRANCE                          AUSTRIA

– The Recovery and Resilience facility could add 1.3%-3.9%
                                                                                                                                                   HUNGARY      ROMANIA
                                                                                                                                                                                     SLOVENIA
                                                                                                                                                                                     CROATIA
  to eurozone GDP over the next five years, marking a shift in                                                                                                                        Black Sea

  the type of fiscal support.                                       PORTUGAL
                                                                                                SPAIN
                                                                                                                                ITALY
                                                                                                                                                                 BULGARIA

– While at the start of the crisis governments concentrated
  on maintaining household incomes and companies' access                                                 Mediterranean Sea

  to finance, they are now looking to restart growth through                                                                                                      GREECE

  large investment programs.                                                                                                             MALTA
                                                                                                                                                                            CYPRUS
                                                                                                                                                                                            CYPRUS

                                                                 S&P Global Ratings’ estimate of Recovery and Resilience Facility component of the plan. Source: S&P Global
                                                                 Ratings. Economic Outlook Europe Q3 2021: The Grand Reopening, June 24, 2021.

                                                                                                                                                                                                     5
Economic Conditions | The ECB’s New Inflation Strategy Signals
Smooth Tapering
– Consumer prices have been rising on the back of higher energy prices, but these effects will likely slow in the second half of this year.
– The ECB’s new strategy addresses shortcomings in how it targets inflation and will likely make it more comfortable about tapering.
– We still expect the ECB to continue net asset purchases through to 2023 and refrain from hiking rates before late 2024.

Headline Inflation Increased Mainly Due To Energy Prices, While                                            Covered Bonds Constitute Almost 10% Of Cumulative Net
Underlying Inflation Remains Subdued                                                                       Purchases Under The Asset Purchase Program

                                            Headline inflation          Core inflation                               PEPP (left scale)          APP (left scale)   Covered bonds as % of the APP (right scale)

                          3                                                                                         4500                                                                              25
                                                                                                                    4000
Year on year change (%)

                                                                                                                    3500                                                                              20
                          2
                                                                                                                    3000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      15
                                                                                                                    2500

                                                                                                            Bil.€

                                                                                                                                                                                                           %
                          1
                                                                                                                    2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                    1500
                          0                                                                                         1000                                                                              5
                                                                                                                    500
                          (1)                                                                                          0                                                                              0
                          May 2015   May 2016   May 2017     May 2018   May 2019     May 2020   May 2021                   2016          2017          2018        2019        2020         2021

Sources: Eurostat, S&P Global Ratings. European Economic Snapshots, July 9, 2021, and The ECB’s New        Sources: European Central Bank, S&P Global Ratings.
Strategy Signals Smooth Tapering And Cautious Greening Ahead, July 9, 2021.

                                                                                                                                                                                                               6
Economic Conditions | Economic Rebound Supports Housing Market
– Short-time work and furlough schemes, increased savings, and loose monetary policy kept housing demand afloat in 2020 and 2021.
– The expected sustained recovery in the economy and employment will support the housing market beyond 2021.
– Structural changes in a post-pandemic housing world are possible, but we still expect cities to remain attractive to homeowners.

House Prices Are Still Growing Fast In Europe…                                          …Despite Banks Tightening Credit Standards To Limit Credit Risk

                                                                                                                                          Credit standards next quarter   Credit standards last quarter
 Netherlands                                                                                                                        50

                                                                                        Net %age of banks reporting a tightening
                                                                                                                                    40
           U.K.
                                                                                                                                    30

                                                                                                  of credit standards
       Ireland                                                                                                                      20

                                                                                                                                    10
           Italy
                                                                                                                                     0

         Spain                                                                                                                     (10)

                   0          2           4            6           8     10   12   14                                              (20)
                                                            %

To May 2021. Sources: National statistical offices, Nationwide (U.K.).                  Sources: ECB, S&P Global Ratings.

                                                                                                                                                                                                          7
Credit Performance | Expect A Limited Increase In NPLs
Mortgage Arrears Should Remain Well Below The Levels
Experienced A Decade Ago                                                                       Unemployment rate            Doubtful mortgage rate
                                                                                               Forecast                     Doubtful loan rate       − Collateral performance has been
Spain                                                                    Greece                                                                        remarkably stable since the onset of
    30                                                                      50                                                                         the pandemic, with residential
    24                                                                      40                                                                         mortgage arrears generally steady or
    18                                                                      30
                                                                                                                                                       decreasing.
                                                                                                                                                     − Short-time work schemes in the
%

                                                                          %
    12                                                                      20
                                                                                                                                                       eurozone's largest economies have so
    6                                                                       10
                                                                                                                                                       far prevented an unemployment surge,
    0                                                                         0                                                                        and mortgage payment deferral
     2005      2008     2011     2014      2017     2020     2023              2005     2008       2011     2014     2017       2020      2023
                                                                                                                                                       schemes have prevented borrowers
Italy                                                                     Ireland                                                                      from falling into arrears.
                                                                                                                                                     − We expect only a limited credit impact
    20                                                                      20
                                                                                                                                                       on prime residential mortgage loans
    16                                                                      16                                                                         once this fiscal and regulatory support
    12                                                                      12                                                                         wanes, because it will happen against
                                                                                                                                                       a background of a strong economic
%

                                                                          %

     8                                                                        8
                                                                                                                                                       rebound.
     4                                                                        4

     0                                                                        0
      2005     2008     2011     2014      2017     2020     2023                     2011         2014       2017          2020          2023

Sources: OECD, National Central Banks, S&P Global Ratings. Covered Bonds Must Adjust To A New Reality After COVID-19, June 30, 2021.

                                                                                                                                                                                                 8
Credit Performance | Strong Job Market Supports Residential
Assets
– There is still no evidence of any cliff effects in the labor market from the phasing out of short-time work schemes, and only about 2% of
  the eurozone's active population was using these schemes during the third wave of lockdowns.
– Payment moratoria have already expired in several European countries, without a meaningful hike in delinquencies.

Only A Small Part Of The Active Population Is Still On Furlough                                     Eurozone Unemployment To Recover To Its Pre-COVID-19 Levels
Employment-equivalent measure                                                                       By The Second Half Of 2022
                                                  Apr-20     Apr-21                                             Germany       France       Italy     Spain   Netherlands     Eurozone      U.K.

                          18                                                                               18

                          16                                                                               16

                          14                                                                               14
 % of active population

                          12                                                                               12

                          10                                                                               10

                                                                                                       %
                          8                                                                                 8

                          6                                                                                 6

                          4                                                                                 4

                          2                                                                                 2

                          0                                                                                 0
                               Germany   France            Italy         Spain   Weighted average                   2019           2020            2021f     2022f         2023f        2024f

Source: National Labor Ministries, Eurostat, S&P Global Ratings calculations.                       f--Forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

                                                                                                                                                                                                  9
Credit Performance | Commercial Mortgages Under Pressure But
Cover Pool Exposure Is Limited
                                                                    Eurozone Commercial Real Estate Prices Grew Faster Than
                                                                    Residential Real Estate Prices Before The Crisis
– Secular trends--such as the rise of working from home and the                      Residential real estate prices             Commercial real estate prices
  growth of e-commerce--and commercial real estate prices
  outpacing residential prices before the pandemic, have clouded         10
  the outlook for segments of the commercial real estate sector.          8
  Retail and lodging are more at risk, while it is still early to         6
  assess the long-term impact on offices.                                 4
– That said, the supply-demand mismatch in retail real estate is          2
  much more significant in the U.K. than it is in continental             0

                                                                    %
  Europe. And even before COVID-19, many key European office             (2)
  markets were undersupplied, manifested in low vacancy rates
                                                                         (4)
  and increasing rents, and ever-declining yields.
                                                                         (6)
– While we believe that commercial real estate asset
                                                                         (8)
  performance may deteriorate, we do not anticipate this
                                                                        (10)
  significantly impairing the credit quality of the covered bonds
  that we rate, due to the availability of credit enhancement to        (12)
                                                                                2006     2008     2009   2011     2012   2014    2015    2017    2018    2020
  absorb losses and the limited exposure to sectors that we
  consider to be more at risk.
                                                                    Source: ECB, S&P Global Ratings.

                                                                                                                                                                10
Issuance | Central Bank Funding And Deposit Growth Depress
Issuance
– Non-standard monetary policy measures, such as the ECB’s TLTROs, have partly substituted investor-placed covered bonds as a bank
  funding tool during periods of market turmoil.
– European households accumulated excess savings of about 12 percentage points of disposable income, limiting wholesale funding needs.

Eurozone Financial Institutions’ Use Of Term Funding From Central                                    Deposit And Loan Book Growth Are Beginning To Normalize
Banks Has Ticked Higher Once Again                                                                   12-month lending and deposit growth, Eurozone real economy
                                         MRO        LTRO                                                                               Loans                     Deposits
          2.5                                                                                             12

                                                                                                          10
          2.0
                                                                                                           8

          1.5
Tril. €

                                                                                                           6

                                                                                                     %
                                                                                                           4
          1.0

                                                                                                           2
          0.5
                                                                                                           0

          0.0                                                                                             (2)
             2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021                                    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

LTRO--Long-term refinancing operations. MRO--Main refinancing operations. Source: European Central   Real economy includes households and nonfinancial corporates. Source: European Central Bank.
Bank.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    11
Issuance | Retained Issuance Likely To Play A Larger Role For Longer
– The ECB may need to stimulate demand at least until 2023, so we expect retained covered bond issuance to play a significant role for the
  next few years.
– It is unclear what investor appetite for covered bonds will be once monetary policy intervention wanes.

                                                                                           Retained Issuance Surged In March 2020 At The Expense Of
Strong Take-Up Of ECB Funding Drives Down Issuance
                                                                                           Investor-Placed Issuance
                              Jan-20        Apr-21      Change in issuance                                                                                         Benchmark, investor-placed                                               Other

                   -10%
                                                                                                       600
                                    +0.8%
            500                                       -2.9%
                                                                                                       500
            400
                                                                    -3.5%                              400

            300

                                                                                              Bil. €
                                                                                                       300
   Bil. €

                                                                                -2.8%
            200                                                                                        200

                                                                                                       100
            100

                                                                                                        0
              0

                                                                                                                      Jun-12
                                                                                                                               Nov-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-17
                                                                                                                                                                   Jul-14

                                                                                                                                                                                              Oct-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct-20
                                                                                                             Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                 Sep-13
                                                                                                                                                          Feb-14

                                                                                                                                                                            Dec-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Feb-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Dec-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-21
                                                                                                                                        Apr-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-18
                                                                                                                                                                                     May-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 May-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Aug-16
                  France            Italy            Germany       Spain     Netherlands

Sources: ECB, S&P Global Ratings.                                                          12-month rolling benchmark issuance. Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Global Ratings.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12
Issuance | Regulatory Developments Could Spur Sustainable
Covered Bond Growth
                                                                       Sustainable Covered Bonds Represent A Growing Share Of New
                                                                       Issuance
                                                                              18
– Sustainable covered bonds grew to almost 17% of overall
  issuance so far in 2021, from less than 5% in 2018.
                                                                              16
– Despite limited pricing differentials compared with vanilla
  issuance, sustainable covered bonds benefit from strong                     14
  investor demand and a supportive regulatory environment.
                                                                              12
– The EU has recently approved or amended several regulations,
  including the benchmark regulation, the regulation on                       10
  sustainability-related disclosures in the financial services

                                                                          %
  sector, and the taxonomy regulation for climate change, which                8
  establishes the list of activities considered environmentally
                                                                               6
  sustainable.
– These initiatives provide greater clarity for market participants,           4
  allowing issuers to plan the necessary investments required to
  set up a green or social covered bond issuance program.                      2

                                                                               0
                                                                                         2017               2018               2019               2020            2021 YTD

                                                                       Based on benchmark investor-placed issuance only. 2021 YTD figures as of July 16, 2021. Source: S&P Global
                                                                       Ratings.

                                                                                                                                                                                    13
Issuance | European Investor-Placed Issuance Volumes Set To
Remain Subdued For The Rest Of 2021
European Investor-Placed Benchmark Covered Bond Issuance

                                     Year to date        Rest of year       YTD deal count (right scale)                                 – Issuers' continued access to cheap central
         160                                                                                                        160                    bank funding and strong deposit growth will
                                                                                                                                           continue to substitute for some European
         140                                                                                                        140                    covered bond issuance in the short term.

         120                                                                                                        120
                                                                                                                                         – However, issuers will likely still come to
                                                                                                                                           market occasionally in order to maintain
         100                                                                                                        100                    investor relationships for the longer term.

                                                                                                                          No. of deals
                                                                                                                                         – Covered bonds may remain an attractive
Bil. €

          80                                                                                                        80
                                                                                                                                           method to fund at longer maturities than
                                                                                                                                           those offered by central bank schemes.
          60                                                                                                        60
                                                                                                                                         – There will also likely be increasing interest in
          40                                                                                                        40                     covered bonds as a platform for sustainable
                                                                                                                                           (i.e., green or social) issuance.
          20                                                                                                        20

           0                                                                                                        0
                2013         2014         2015        2016         2017        2018       2019        2020   2021

Year to date figures as of July 16 each year. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

                                                                                                                                                                                          14
Harmonization | Pandemic Has Delayed The Transposition Into
National Legislations
Current State Of Covered Bond Harmonization Transpositions
               Law passed
                                                                                                     – The legislative package for the harmonization of EU covered bond
               Proposal in parliament
                                                                                                       frameworks entered into force in January 2020. Member states
               Public proposal                                                                         had until July 2021 to transpose it into national laws, and the new
               Non-public proposal                                                                     measures will apply by July 2022.
               Transposition not undertaken                                                          – The COVID-19 crisis delayed the process in most countries. At the
               Unknown status                                                                          same time, the transposition into law of certain elements, such
                                                                                                       as provisions on extendible maturities and the calculation of
                                                                                                       liquidity buffers, has proven difficult. That's because the directive
                                                                                                       is principles-based, leaving greater room for interpretation at the
                                                                                                       national level.
                                                                                                     – To date, only Germany, France, Denmark, and Latvia have enacted
                                                                                                       the law, but we still think that most member states will be able to
                                                                                                       meet the July 2022 target date.

S&P Global Ratings. Covered Bond Harmonization In The EU Remains A Work in Progress, July 13, 2021

                                                                                                                                                                           15
Ratings Outlook | Ratings Stable Despite Lockdowns And Drop In
Economic Activity
– Since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis we have not downgraded any of the covered bond programs that we rate. We revised outlooks to
  negative on less than 15% of them, and upgraded four of them, due to rating actions on the issuing banks or the related sovereigns.
– Most programs that we rate still have stable outlooks, except those in Spain.

                                                                                                                 Negative Rating Bias Highest In Non-Core Eurozone, Due To
No Downgrades So Far Due To The Pandemic
                                                                                                                 Spanish Sovereign Outlook
                                               Upgrades     Downgrades                                                                       Negative outlook      Stable outlook          Positive outlook
                   20
                                                                                                                               Jun-21

                                                                                                                     Core EU
                   15                                                                                                          May-20
                   10                                                                                                          Nov-19
                                                                                                                               Jun-21
                    5

                                                                                                                     Nordics
No. of programs

                                                                                                                               May-20
                    0                                                                                                          Nov-19

                   (5)                                                                                                         Jun-21

                                                                                                                 Non-core
                                                                                                                   EU
                                                                                                                               May-20
                  (10)
                                                                                                                               Nov-19
                  (15)                                                                                                         Jun-21

                                                                                                                     Non EU
                  (20)                                                                                                         May-20
                                                                                                                               Nov-19
                  (25)
                         2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020   2021                                     0%   10%    20%     30%   40%   50%     60%     70%     80%     90%    100%

Note: Core EU: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, The Netherlands. Nordics: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden. Non-core EU: Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Spain. Non EU: Singapore, South Korea, U.K. Source: S&P
Global Ratings.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      16
Ratings Outlook | Overcollateralization Should Cushion Collateral
Performance Deterioration
Available CE Is On Average More Than Six Times What's Required For The Ratings

                                                        Q1-2021   Q4-2019                       – The credit enhancement available to most of
                                                                                                  the programs that we rate exceeds, on
 Hungary
   Ireland                                                                                        average, more than six times the level
  Finland                                                                                         required to maintain the current ratings.
  Norway
                                                                                                – We have not recorded any material
 Denmark
      Italy
                                                                                                  deterioration in available credit
 Germany                                                                                          enhancement, even when issuers used their
  Belgium                                                                                         programs extensively for retained issuance.
   France
     Spain
                                                                                                – Our rating outlook remains stable, even
  Netherl…                                                                                        though we expect mortgage arrears to peak
        UK                                                                                        in Europe only in 2022.
   Austria
  Singapo…
                                                                                                – We expect a more severe effect on the
  Sweden                                                                                          performance of CRE assets, but they
     Korea                                                                                        generally constitute a relatively small part of
   Greece                                                                                         the cover pools backing programs that we
            0              2             4             6          8         10   12   14   16     rate.

CE--Credit enhancement. Q--Quarter. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

                                                                                                                                                17
Ratings Outlook | Unused Notches Partially Mitigate Bank
Downgrade Risk
                                                    Unused Notches By Country

– We continue to expect any potential changes         Average

  in sovereign or issuer credit ratings to be the                                                                                                          FINLAND

  most likely trigger for changes to our covered          4                                                                  NORWAY

                                                                                                                                        SWEDEN
  bond ratings.                                           3

                                                          2
– Currently, rated programs benefit on average            1              IRELAND
                                                                                                             North Sea

                                                                                                            DENMARK

  from 2.4 unused notches--the number of                                                       U.K.         NETHERLANDS

  notches the issuer rating can be lowered              Atlantic Ocean

  without resulting in a downgrade of the                                            BELGIUM                               GERMANY

  covered bonds.
– French, German, and Dutch programs are
                                                                                                      FRANCE                          AUSTRIA
  more protected from the risk of bank                                                                                                           HUNGARY

  downgrades.
                                                                                                                                                                     Black Sea

– Spanish and Italian programs have less of a                                      SPAIN
                                                                                                                              ITALY

  buffer to mitigate the effect of bank
  downgrades and could be immediately
  affected by a sovereign downgrade.                                                                   Mediterranean Sea

                                                    Source: S&P Global Ratings. Global Covered Bond Insights Q2 2021, June 30, 2021.

                                                                                                                                                                                 18
Ratings Outlook | Non-Core European And Public Sector Programs
More Exposed To Sovereign Risk
Most Program Ratings Will Be Unaffected By A Limited ICR Or Sovereign Downgrade
                          4
                                                                                                                                              – Given our current sovereign ratings, covered
                                                                                                                                                bond ratings in most jurisdictions would not
                                                                                                                                                change due to a one-notch downgrade of the
                          3         60.5%              48.8%                   46.5%                    32.6%
                                                                                                                                                sovereign, with some exceptions.
                                                                                                                                              – We would expect mortgage programs in
ICR downgrade (notches)

                          2         75.6%              60.5%                   55.8%                    39.5%                                   Ireland, Greece, Italy, and Spain, as well as
                                                                                                                                                programs backed by public sector assets in
                                                                                                                                                Belgium, France, and the U.K., to be most
                          1         88.4%              70.9%                   66.3%                    44.2%
                                                                                                                                                sensitive to changes in the respective
                                                                                                                                                sovereign ratings.

                          0                            77.9%                   70.9%                    47.7%

                          -1
                               -1     0                   1                       2                        3                       4
                                                      Sovereign downgrade (notches)

Note: Percentage of covered bond program ratings unaffected by an ICR or sovereign downgrade. Unused notches are the number of notches the ICR can be lowered by, without resulting in a downgrade of the covered bonds,
all else being equal. ICR--Issuer credit rating. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19
Related Research

– Covered Bond Harmonization In The EU Remains A Work in Progress, July 13, 2021
– The ECB’s New Strategy Signals Smooth Tapering And Cautious Greening Ahead, July 9, 2021
– European Economic Snapshots: The Economy Is Responding Quickly To The Grand Reopening, July 9, 2021
– Commercial Real Estate In Covered Bonds: Is It Worth The Risk?, July 8, 2021
– Covered Bonds Must Adjust To A New Reality After COVID-19, June 30, 2021
– Global Covered Bond Insights Q2 2021, June 30, 2021
– Economic Outlook Europe Q3 2021: The Grand Reopening, June 24, 2021
– Covered Bonds In New Markets: Expect Only A Gradual Recovery, March 8, 2021
– Sustainable Covered Bonds: Assessing The Impact Of COVID-19, Dec. 1, 2020
– ESG Industry Report Card: Covered Bonds, Nov. 9, 2020

                                                                                                        20
Analytical Contacts

Antonio Farina                   Marta Escutia                       Andrew South
                                                                     Head of Structured Finance Research -
Senior Director, Covered Bonds   Associate Director, Covered Bonds
                                                                     EMEA
+34-91-788-7226                  +34-91-788-7225                     +44-20-7176-3712

antonio.farina@spglobal.com      marta.escutia@spglobal.com          andrew.south@spglobal.com

                                                                                                             21
This report does not constitute a rating action

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