Corporate Plan 2017 - NBN Co
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Contents PART A: PLAN OUTLINE 5 PART B: CORPORATE PLAN 25 1 Corporate Plan summary statement 26 2 Background, performance and objectives 30 2.1 Background 30 2.2 Strategic imperatives 30 2.3 Performance to date 32 2.4 Objectives ahead 33 3 Market overview 34 3.1 Market trends 34 3.2 Australian market overview 35 4 Operating plan 36 4.1 Product and customer strategy 36 4.2 Network technology planning 40 4.3 Network deployment 41 4.4 Key enabler organisational functions 43 5 Operational and financial multi-year forecasts 46 5.1 Premises Ready for Service (RFS) 47 5.2 Underserved areas 49 5.3 Premises Activated 50 5.4 ARPU and speed tier mix 51 5.5 Subscriber payments and operating costs 51 5.6 Capital expenditure 52 5.7 Long-term financial outlook 54 5.8 Sources of funding 55 5.9 Subsidiaries 56 6 Risk management 58 6.1 Risk management framework 58 6.2 Overview of risks 59 6.3 Risk details and mitigation 60 glossary 64 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 1
Legal notice Introduction achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or This 2017 Corporate Plan has been achievements expressed or implied by prepared by nbn co limited (nbn or the the Estimates. Company) for its shareholder ministers, Senator the Hon Mitch Fifield and While the Estimates are based on the Senator the Hon Mathias Cormann best considered professional (Shareholder Ministers) as required by assessment, the management team and the Public Governance, Performance officers (as defined in the Corporations and Accountability Act 2013 (Cth) Act) of nbn do not give any guarantee (PGPA Act) (in particular section 35(1) or assurance to any third party that the (b) and 95(1)(b) of the PGPA Act), the results, performance or achievements Public Governance, Performance and expressed or implied by the Estimates Accountability Rule 2014 (Cth) (PGPA will actually occur, and such Estimates Rule), the Commonwealth Government should not be relied on or considered to Business Enterprise Governance and be a representation of what will happen Oversight Guidelines (August 2015) (GBE by any third party. Guidelines) and Australian Government policy as communicated to nbn by the Other than as required according to Commonwealth from time to time Reporting Obligations, nbn and its (together, Reporting Obligations). officers have no obligation to update the Estimates based on circumstances, The reporting periods covered by this developments or events occurring after plan are FY17 to FY20 inclusive. The first the publication date of this document. reporting period covered by this plan is FY17. The fourth, and last, reporting This plan also contains Estimates in period covered by this plan is FY20. respect of periods after 30 June 2020, including in section 5.7 (Long-term Disclaimer financial outlook). Management and the Board do not give any guarantee or This plan contains various long-range assurance that the results, performance plans, projections, high level estimates or achievements expressed or implied and other forward looking information by such Estimates will actually occur. (Estimates). Those Estimates are based on the best considered professional © 2016 nbn co limited assessment of present economic and ABN 86 136 533 741 operating conditions, present Australian All rights reserved. Government policy, and a number of assumptions regarding future events and actions which, at the date of this ‘nbn’, ‘Sky Muster’, ‘bring it on’, and the Aurora device are trademarks of nbn co limited. document, are expected to take place. The Estimates involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors beyond control that may cause nbn’s actual results, performance or 2 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
About nbn nbn was established in 2009 to design, build and operate Australia’s new high-speed broadband network. Underpinned by a purpose to connect Australia and bridge the digital divide, nbn’s key objective is to ensure all Australians have access to fast broadband as soon as nbn is wholly-owned possible, at affordable prices, by the Commonwealth and at least cost. of Australia To achieve this objective, nbn has been structured as a wholesale-only, open- access broadband network available on equivalent terms to all access seekers. This is intended to level the playing field in Australian telecommunications, creating real and vibrant competition within the industry. nbn is a Government Business Our goal Enterprise (GBE) incorporated under is to activate the Corporations Act 2001 and pursuant to the PGPA Act. 8 million homes and businesses by 2020 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 7
Connecting Australia and bridging the digital divide nbn exists to construct and It will be the nation’s first national operate Australia’s high-speed wholesale-only, open-access broadband network with a commitment to deliver broadband network. It is the access to at least 25 megabits per most comprehensive and largest second (Mbps) downstream to all infrastructure development in premises and at least 50 Mbps Australia’s history, using world- downstream to 90 per cent of fixed line class technologies to provide premises.1 This ambition for universal connectivity is unique to Australia access to fast broadband to every considering its expansive geography home and business in Australia. and population. nbn’s goal is to activate eight million homes and businesses by 2020. 8 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
Enabling an exciting future for Building momentum to deliver high- all Australians speed broadband to all Australians The nbnTM network will allow Australia In FY16 the number of premises Ready to unleash its full digital potential. It will for Service (RFS) more than doubled transform the nation and fundamentally to 2.9 million – 138 per cent growth enable Australia to become a more on the previous year. Activations also connected, more competitive, and more than doubled with 1.1 million more innovative nation. premises now activated – 126 per cent growth on the previous year. It will help bridge the digital divide between city and country; young and This reflects strong growth in the old; and Australia and the rest of the company’s capacity to scale and deliver. world. Of the rollout completed at the Challenges, however, remain with the end of FY16, 70 per cent is in non-metro continued scaling of RFS and activation and regional Australia aligned with nbn’s capacity over the next two years. purpose to connect Australia and bridge the digital divide. This is underpinned by the continued progression of the fixed line and Fixed Wireless programs and the launch of Sky MusterTM satellite services. This vital infrastructure will help change the way businesses operate and how people live their lives, connecting people, promoting social inclusion and equal opportunity. It enables the use of new technologies and applications, stimulating At peak, a new home improvement and innovation across or business is forecast a wide range of industries such as to be activated every 3 education, health, entertainment, media, commerce and community services. seconds World-class network technology 2 The nbnTM network comprises world- class technologies that are designed to significantly lift broadband capability across Australia. By 2020, the use of these technologies are projected to deliver beyond nbn’s minimum commitments. It is intended that nearly half of the fixed line footprint will have the potential to access Gigabit wholesale services and the majority able to access 50 Mbps or better. The nbnTM network is being built to meet today’s needs, while including capacity and upgrade paths to allow for future evolution in demand. 1 The nbnTM network is being designed to provide these peak speeds to nbn’s Retail Service Providers at nbn’s network boundary. 2 Based on an eight hour working day and five day working week. © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 9
Momentum has been established in FY16 Sky MusterTM Major HFC satellite delivery product agreement launch in executed April 2016 with Telstra More than HFC product one in four launch in can order an June 2016 nbnTM service One new activated Established 60 household or three key business every operating 12 seconds agreements in FY162 Today, nearly two thirds Fibre to of the nation the Node are in design, launched in construction September or already 2015 eligible for an nbnTM service 2 Based on an eight hour working day and five day working week. 10 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
Pursuing unprecedented scale Construction rate to more than double from FY16 to reach peak in FY18 Incremental premises made RFS 4.0 3.7m 1.7million 3.5 3.0 2.5m 2.5 2.1m 2.0 1.7m 1.5 premises made Ready 1.0 0.6m 0.7m for Service in FY16. 3.0x 0.5 0.0 as many as in FY15 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Premises activated to grow more than three times from FY16 to FY18 nearly doubling year-on-year Incremental premises activated 2.5m 2.5 2.1m More than 2.0 600,000 1.5 1.2m 1.2m 1.0 0.6m 0.5 0.3m premises activated in FY16. 0.0 2.2x as many as in FY15 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 By FY20, revenue will have grown by 12 times on FY16 Annual Revenue $5.0b 5 FY16 revenue 4 $3.7b up 157% to 3 $421m $1.9b 2 $0.9b 1 $0.4b $0.2b 0 compared to FY15 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 11
Deploying world-class network technology FTTP – Fibre-to-the-Premises FTTN – Fibre-to-the-Node FTTP deploys fibre optic cable to the FTTN deploys fibre into neighbourhoods household or business. As at 30 June and then leverages existing copper 2016, 1.4 million FTTP premises are RFS. infrastructure to the premises. This FTTP will continue to be deployed to reduces the time and cost associated with new developments through the local network and lead-in construction. Greenfields program. Since the launch in September 2015, End users with a strong interest in fibre 663,000 premises are RFS on the are offered the Technology Choice FTTN network. program which provides end users the option to switch access technology Current service offerings are up to 100/40 at their expense. Mbps, although observed speeds reflect purchased speed tiers. Current wholesale service offerings are up to 1 Gbps/400 Mbps. HFC – Hybrid Fibre Coaxial FTTB – Fibre-to-the-Basement3 HFC technology leverages existing fibre and cable networks to deliver FTTB deploys fibre optic cable to the fast broadband. basement of a building, utilising existing wiring in the building for connections to In June 2016, HFC commercial services apartments or offices eliminating the were launched in Redcliffe, Queensland. need for in-building design and End users experienced trial speeds of construction works. up to 100/40 Mbps.4 FTTB allows multi-dwelling units, DOCSIS 3.1 will provide capability to such as apartment complexes and office increase wholesale download speeds blocks, to receive fast broadband with of up to 1 Gbps. current wholesale services offering up to 100/40 Mbps. As at 30 June 2016, FTTB has been deployed to more than 900 buildings. 3 FTTB is included in FTTN statistics throughout the Corporate Plan. 4 Experience and Trial Speed Disclaimer: end-user experience, including speeds actually achieved, depends on the nbnTM technology used and factors outside nbn’s control like your broadband plan, provider, equipment and software. Trial speeds were achieved by end users in the context of a trial and may not reflect nbn’s wholesale speed tiers or the speeds that will be experienced by end users. 12 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
Bringing world-class fast broadband to rural, regional and remote Australians. 5,6 Fixed Wireless Satellite nbn’s Fixed Wireless service enables nbn’s satellites will be among the high-speed broadband to be extended world’s largest and most advanced to Australians outside the reach of the communication satellites. Their fixed line network. This world-class combined capacity will be 135 Gbps, technology provides access to more than 30 times the capacity of the wholesale speeds of up to 50/20 Mbps. interim satellite service. Sky MusterTM, the first of the two dedicated satellites, The Fixed Wireless network is was ranked “world leader” in a report recognised as a leader in terms of comparing 18 international broadband speed, data allowances and affordability service providers based on its when compared to similar networks performance and affordability.6 in other countries.5 In April 2016, nbn launched Sky MusterTM Network deployment is mature. Users commercial services through RSPs. The of the technology are among the most satellite service is a game changer for satisfied nbnTM network users with 75 per rural and remote Australians, providing cent Advocacy at June 2016, a measure access to wholesale speeds of up to 25/5 of users who have already recommended Mbps for Sky MusterTM satellite end users. the nbnTM network to family, friends or colleagues. This measure is reflective of end-user experience across both the Retail Service Provider (RSP) and nbnTM networks. 5 Ovum: “Fixed Wireless Broadband: A global comparison”, 10 July 2015. 6 Ovum: “Satellite Broadband: A global comparison”, 28 April 2016. © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 13
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Adopting innovative technologies A dynamic and rapidly changing Technological innovations to serve environment future demand Technological progress, changing FTTP end-user behaviour and increasing • ‘Next Generation Passive Optical demand are transforming Australia’s Network’ (NG-PON) standard provides society and connectivity needs. the opportunity to increase maximum Uncertainty in future demand stems speeds from 1 Gbps to 10 Gbps. from the changing ways in which FTTN consumers use data and the extent to • G.fast standard, an evolution from which usage trends become mainstream. VDSL2, provides potential speeds Possible drivers of future demand are of up to 1 Gbps7 increased proliferation of connected devices, growth in video streaming and • Fibre to the Distribution Point (FTTdp) new applications. The future is limitless, is a variant of FTTN, which deepens with virtual reality applications, self- fibre into the network and leverages driving vehicles, and internet-connected existing copper for the lead-in. FTTdp is devices potentially growing in demand. currently being trialled, with download speeds observed around 100 Mbps, Many of these trends are emerging and which could be up to 1 Gbps when currently in early stages of development, combined with G.fast.* with the full extent and timing of impact remaining uncertain. HFC In order to balance continuous • Full Duplex DOCSIS 3.1 (FDD) is the next technological progress and changing evolution of DOCSIS 3.1, and will enable end-user demand, the nbnTM network the full symmetric use of the HFC plant is being built to provide flexibility spectrum for both upstream and around upgrade pathways to cater downstream transmission. This will allow for this evolution. the HFC network to match fibre services with multi-gigabit speed tiers (1 Gbps+ A pipeline of innovation is continuously downstream, and 400 Mbps upstream). being tested. New technology creates opportunity to deliver future network Fixed Wireless requirements when they become • Fixed Wireless network throughput can commercially viable. be increased to offer up to 250 Mbps by aggregating multiple radio carriers. Throughput can be increased beyond 250 Mbps in a number of ways, such as using more radio spectrum or increased efficiencies in spectrum management. Satellite • New Satellite technology with 10x capacity increases becoming available. 7 Dependent on distance from the premises to the node. * Refer to disclaimer on page 12. © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 15
Enabling a vibrant retail market Success is underpinned by successful Focused on improving service to RSPs retailers nbn has been working on improving nbn’s products are constructed to allow the service and engagement with RSPs flexibility to tailor residential and RSPs through continuous industry business solutions that best meet consultation to refine processes. individual end-user needs. New products and additional features A single broadband product construct will continue to be launched over time, has been developed across fixed line, developed in close consultation with RSPs. fixed wireless and satellite technologies to make the product set technology- The Customer Experience Metric is agnostic. The product construct offers tracking favourably, meeting a metric peak wholesale downstream speeds of 7.2 out of 10 (FY16), up from 6.6 ranging from 12 Mbps up to 1 Gbps and (FY15). Implementation of continuous upload speeds ranging from 1 Mbps to improvement programs aim to reach 400 Mbps. 8 out of 10 by 2020. Currently more than 50 RSPs are able to provide broadband to their customers on the nbnTM network, with more RSPs engaged indirectly. 16 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
Satisfying end users Meeting the needs of Australian Overall Satisfaction from users across broadband users all products is now 7.1 out of 10. The nbnTM network is unlocking previous nbn’s Advocacy, a measure of users who capacity constraints and changing have already recommended the nbnTM consumer behaviours. nbnTM network network to family, friends or colleagues end users download 34 per cent more is at 65 per cent, the same as 12 months than the Australian Bureau of Statistics ago. This measure is reflective of end- (ABS) national average, as at 31 user experience across both the RSP December 2015. 8 and nbnTM networks. Customers have reliable access to the network with uptime at 99.9 per cent across the entire network. 8 ABS 2015. © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 17
Dedicated people making nbn a reality nbn aspires to be one of the This is translating into an engaged best places to work in Australia. workforce with the most recent employee Engagement Score at 68 per cent, up Behind nbn stands a talented, multi- 17 percentage points from 51 per cent last disciplinary team from a wide range year. This puts nbn in the top quartile of of backgrounds and experiences. businesses in Australia and New Zealand Diverse teams are working in the field, for employee engagement scores. in operations centres and in state and head offices. Voluntary turnover is favourable at 7.7 per cent compared to the global industry The Management team aims to provide average of 11.0 per cent as at June 2016.9 an environment that encourages people to perform at their best. Inspirational At nbn we want to continue to create leadership, a collaborative culture a diverse and inclusive workplace and growth in talent is at the heart that accepts, respects and leverages of nbn’s progress. differences. nbn is committed to embracing diversity to help improve business results, create a high- performing culture and attract and retain talented people. 9 Aon Hewitt 2016 Telecommunications and General Industry Survey. 18 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
Board and Management’s message Over the past year, nbn has gained • the successful launch of HFC solid momentum in building a commercial services in June 2016. world-class broadband network By the end of FY20, our goal is for all for all Australians by 2020. Australians to have access to the nbnTM network, with a forecast 11.9 million This comprehensive plan details how we premises Ready for Service and 8 million will deliver on nbn’s 2020 commitment, homes and businesses actively using and follows on last year’s plan. As we the network. expand into more areas of Australia, our knowledge increases along with the To achieve this, significant work is quality of planning. We are proud to say required to build upon the progress that that we exceeded our FY16 targets, with has been made over the last two years. the company recording nine consecutive The unprecedented scale and quarters of meeting our goals. complexity facing the business means that the next two years will be critical nbn’s purpose remains to connect in delivering our plan. Australia and bridge the digital divide. Exponential growth is required to Key achievements during FY16 include: achieve the targets, and FY17 is forecast • more than doubling the Ready to see the biggest growth yet: for Service footprint, enabling • by June 2017, nearly half of Australia 2.9 million homes and businesses will be able to order a service to access the network • the construction and activation rates • more than doubling the number of need to almost double active premises; 1.1 million premises are now using the network • the HFC program will scale exponentially • doubling revenue to $0.4 billion in FY16 from $0.2 billion in FY15 • the second satellite Sky MusterTM II is scheduled for launch in October 2016. • the successful launch of commercial FTTN products in September 2015 We look forward to growing the conversation in the community about how • the successful launch of the Sky the nbnTM network can be leveraged to MusterTM satellite in October 2015 unlock Australia’s digital potential. • the successful launch of Sky MusterTM commercial services in April 2016 Dr Ziggy Switkowski AO Bill Morrow Chairman Chief Executive Officer © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 19
nbn’s Management team Experienced leadership team behind nbn. Bill Morrow Stephen Rue John Simon Chief Executive Officer Chief Financial Officer Chief Customer Officer Appointed in December Appointed in July 2014 Appointed in 2013, effective April 2014 January 2013 Mr Morrow is well known Prior to joining nbn, Mr Simon is an for his global experience Mr Rue spent 17 years established executive in leading complex in various leadership roles in the converged ICT turnarounds and as at News Corp Australia market, with over 30 one of the global including a decade as years’ experience. telecommunications Chief Financial Officer. industry’s most Prior to nbn, Mr Simon experienced executives. He also served as a spent the previous 11 years Director on a number working for Singtel Optus Prior to nbn, he served of associated boards in various roles across as CEO of Vodafone including Foxtel, Fox strategy, product and Hutchison Australia Sports, REA Group sales management and in Sydney and CEO of and Australian customer experience. Clearwire Corporation Associated Press. in Seattle. 20 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
Brad Whitcomb Peter Ryan Maree Taylor Chief Strategy and Chief Network Chief People Transformation Officer Engineering Officer and Culture Officer Appointed in May 2014 Appointed in December 2015 Appointed in May 2014 Mr Whitcomb has Mr Ryan has solid Ms Taylor is an successfully architected experience in engineering experienced Human a number of high-profile and deployment of Resources professional business transformations networks nationally and with more than 25 years in the telecommunications overseas, in addition to of corporate and and energy sectors. operational management consulting/coaching experience and proven experience. Prior to nbn, Mr project discipline. Whitcomb was the Chief Prior to nbn, Ms Taylor Strategy and Business Prior to joining nbn, Mr held senior executive Transformation Officer Ryan worked at Vodafone roles including Head at Vodafone Hutchinson for 15 years in Australia, of Human Resources Australia. Kenya and the UK, and at Origin, CSC Australia, at Maunsell Australia Pty and Apple Asia Pacific. Ltd. His career has spanned across network engineering, technology deployment and service operations. © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 21
nbn’s Management team (cont.) JB Rousselot Justin Forsell John McInerney Chief Network Chief Legal Counsel Chief Information Officer Operations Officer Appointed in Appointed in Appointed in October 2013 March 2010 December 2012 Mr Rousselot brings to Mr Forsell is an Mr McInerney is an the business over 15 years’ experienced legal experienced technology experience in the practitioner with over practitioner with over telecommunications sector. 18 years in-house 20 years’ experience. experience. He has previously held Prior to nbn, senior roles at Telstra Prior to nbn, Mr Forsell Mr McInerney was Vice including the Executive was General Counsel, President at HP across Director of Voice, Company Secretary and Asia Pacific and Japan BigPond and Media. Head of Governance at and Group CIO at Telstra Vodafone Australia. where he led one of the largest technology transformation projects in Australia. 22 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
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Part B Corporate Plan © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 25
1. Corporate Plan summary statement Last year, Management prepared The Corporate Plan 2017 builds on the nbn’s first cross-functional foundations established last year and is based on new operational experience Corporate Plan using an gained throughout FY16 as well as integrated planning process. further strategic decisions, updated This plan was the basis of how financial and market analysis and nbn would achieve its goals. operational planning. It was based on detailed strategic Since Corporate Plan 2016, nbn has and financial analysis and more than doubled the number of integrated operational planning. premises Ready for Service (RFS) to 2.9 million – 138 per cent growth from the previous year, and increased premises activated to 1.1 million – 126 per cent growth. At the same time, nbn hit a number of milestones and gained significant experience, reducing key uncertainties. 26 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
The performance of the company –– second tranche of construction is underpinned by a number of key contracts have been awarded to milestones achieved in FY16: deliver flexibility, incentives and competition for the rollout of the • successful launch of FTTN in nbnTM network. September 2015 and scaling of FTTN deployment, with 663,000 premises While FY16 represents strong growth now RFS in the company’s capacity to scale and deliver, challenges remain ahead. • the first of two dedicated satellites, Premises RFS need to almost double Sky Muster,TM has been launched with in FY17 and again in FY18. Activated the first Sky MusterTM services premises need to nearly double year-on- activated in April 2016 year for the next two years. This is • commercial launch of HFC following particularly challenging considering successful end-user and construction the extraordinary scope and complexity trials in Redcliffe, QLD of the nbnTM network rollout. • nbn has strengthened its relationships Progress in FY16 has provided more with the industry by improving the data with which to forecast, but way it collaborates and structures considering the scale and complexity its agreements: of the network build, much uncertainty remains. The plan continues to support –– delivery agreement signed with a peak funding base case forecast of Telstra to leverage their experience $49 billion, and a range of $46 billion in HFC design and construction to to $54 billion. This is a narrower range scale the program than last year, reflecting a reduction in uncertainty as the nbnTM network is –– Operations and Maintenance Master rolled out. As in the Corporate Plan Agreements have been signed with 2016, forecast completion of the nbnTM three regional partners to activate network rollout is by 2020. premises and assure the network, ensuring a fast and reliable Key operational and financial metrics broadband network are summarised in the following table. Table 1: Key operational and financial metrics FY16(A) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 $ billions (unless otherwise stated) Premises RFS (millions) 2.9 5.4 9.1 11.2 11.9 Premises activated (millions) 1.1 2.3 4.4 6.9 8.1 Revenue 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.7 5.0 EBITDA before subscriber payments (1.3) (1.2) (0.4) 1.1 2.2 EBITDA (1.9) (2.6) (3.2) (2.0) 0.7 Capital Expenditure (4.7) (6.1) (5.9) (3.3) (1.9) Cash flow (7.1) (9.2) (10.0) (6.6) (2.5) Note: The numbers presented in this table correspond to the base case consistent with the ranges represented in Table 2 but may vary significantly over time. Operating expenses and EBITDA are non-GAAP measures. For corporate planning and internal reporting purposes, management treat certain payments for leasing assets as operating expenses. For statutory reporting purposes in quarterly and annual reporting, these payments are treated as finance leases and accordingly are capitalised and amortised over a 35 year period. © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 27
1. Corporate Plan summary statement (continued) The plan is based on operational and • management of partners: financial forecasts representing best operationalising contractual estimates and information to date. agreements and realising intended While certain aspects of the plan have benefits while managing the risk been de-risked through reducing key associated with significant uncertainties, significant risks and dependence on third parties challenges remain. Critical assumptions on scope, cost and timing are continuously • competition, revenue and regulatory: refined with further in-field experience. the achievement of forecast revenue and activation rates while adapting to In preparing this plan, Management the evolving regulatory environment, has analysed and assessed the most competing against infrastructure significant challenges and the potential providers and encouraging impact they might have on the rollout competitive dynamics among RSPs. schedule and peak funding requirements. These risks can be categorised in the Where feasible, these risks have been following main themes: assessed and reflected in the delivery timing and peak funding range. • meeting the scale challenge: nbn’s ability to achieve the next level of organisational maturity required to manage the process complexity, resource contention and delivery of automation to achieve the overall plan raises a number of key challenges. This includes the ability to activate, operate and maintain the nbn footprint at scale across Australia in a safe and environmentally responsible manner, in line with publicly-communicated targets 28 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
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2. Background, performance and objectives 2.1 Background 2.2 Strategic imperatives In 2009, nbn was established to build and operate Australia’s first ever national, wholesale-only, open-access broadband network. nbn’s objective is to ensure all Australians have access to fast broadband as soon as possible, at affordable prices, nbn’s ultimate objective is to connect and at least cost to taxpayers. Australia to broadband, bridging the current digital divide between To give greater clarity to the program, Australians, and between Australia the Government has set out a Statement and other economies worldwide. Its goal of Expectations dated 8 April 2014 (SoE), is to activate eight million homes and which provides, among other things, that: businesses by 2020. In order to fulfill this goal, nbn has five strategic imperatives: • to minimise cost and increase speed of deployment, the rollout should allow • build a united partnership with vendors, for a combination of technologies Delivery Partners (DPs) and RSPs • the nbnTM network is intended to be a • build affordable products and services wholesale-only access network, available on equivalent terms to all access seekers • build a high-performing, reliable network • the design of the nbnTM network will • build effective and efficient processes be guided by the Government’s policy and systems objectives of providing access to • make nbn a great place to work. download data rates of at least 25 Mbps to all premises and at least 50 Mbps to 90 per cent of fixed line premises as soon as possible10 • nbn has flexibility and discretion in operational, technology and network design decisions, within the constraints of a public equity capital limit of $29.5 billion. 10 The nbnTM network is being designed to provide these peak speeds to nbn’s Retail Service Providers at nbn’s network boundary. 30 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
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2. Background, performance and objectives (continued) 2.3 Performance to date nbn has continued to build momentum through FY16. The achievement of key financial and operational objectives has been complemented with improved relationships with industry partners and RSPs, an increase in staff engagement and positive end-user experience. Exhibit 1: Deploying the network Exhibit 2: Connecting premises Cumulative RFS (’000) Cumulative activations (’000) 2,893 3,000 Actual 2,632 1,200 Actual 1,099 955 2,500 Corporate Plan 2016 1,000 Corporate Plan 2016 2,000 800 1,500 1,213 600 486 1,000 400 652 211 500 200 0 0 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY14 FY15 FY16 • 2.9 million premises now RFS, • 1.1 million premises now activated, more than double the amount in more than double the amount in June 2015 representing 25 per cent June 2015. of the target footprint • nearly two thirds of the footprint is either in the design and construction pipeline or RFS. Exhibit 3: Generating revenue Annual Revenue ($m) 500 Actual 421 400 Corporate Plan 2016 300 300 200 164 100 61 0 FY14 FY15 FY16 • $0.4 billion in total revenue generated in FY16, with a monthly ARPU of $43 as at 30 June 2016 • actively engaging over 50 RSPs • double the number of end users. 32 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
2.4 Objectives ahead While nbn is gaining momentum, the • increase industry workforce capacity, organisation faces several challenges nbn IT capabilities, and end-to-end across multiple dimensions, including the operations ability to deliver on scale and scope of build, activation and these targets delivery, and public scrutiny. To put these challenges into perspective, in the years • lead and grow the organisation to ahead the organisation will need to: manage the critical construction period, while transitioning the • grow the RFS footprint four times company to a primarily network from 2.9 million to 11.9 million by FY20; operations business. nearly doubling the footprint in FY17 to achieve 5.4 million premises RFS, There are many critical interdependencies and growing significantly again in FY18 between these and other activities that to achieve 9.1 million premises RFS will need to be managed and delivered in parallel, particularly during the course • increase the number of premises of the next four years of this plan. activated nearly eight-fold from 1.1 million to 8.1 million by FY20; doubling The mandate continues to present a unique activations to reach 2.3 million in FY17, challenge – an unprecedented project and then nearly double again to of scale, scope, speed and complexity. 4.4 million in FY18 • coordinate with multiple RSPs to deliver on revenue forecasts including increases in ARPU, usage and speed tier mixes, and a competitive business segment proposition © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 33
3. Market overview 3.1 Market trends Significant technological progress never seen before. The below key and ever-changing end-user demands demand and supply factors are expected continue to shape the broader to influence the market over the short- telecommunications sector at a pace to-medium term: Exhibit 4: Key technological demand and supply factors Demand Factors Supply Factors Bandwidth heavy Technology services innovation UHD (4K and 8K) New telecommuni- and 360-degree cation standards video, virtual and (e.g. G.fast, augmented reality NG-PON2) Service quality / Ultra fast, efficient guarantee devices Willingness to pay Low-power devices for guaranteed data (e.g. Bluetooth, speeds and usage Low-Energy), faster quality interconnects Cloud networking Network Advanced data capacity compression Always on, always planning connected, always Compression-driven synced network capacity enhancements Ubiquitous coverage Optimised Ubiquitous network design connectivity Software-defined requirements networks, distribut- regardless of ed caching, intelli- delivery medium gent edge switching Connected world Alternative Proliferation of technologies devices, machine Fixed wireless -to-machine, (e.g. 5G lead-ins) Internet-of-things (IoT) 34 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
Based on the above trends, data demand The retail market is largely shared among is forecast to continue to grow at 30 per four RSPs, with further consolidation cent or more year-on-year to 202011 and through TPG’s acquisition of iiNet, the throughput requirements are forecast merger of Vocus and M2, and the to increase (both download and upload), acquisition of Nextgen by Vocus. particularly in the home, as some end users look to use multiple sets of devices RSPs have introduced a wide variety of and applications simultaneously, and in nbnTM product offers to the market, with some cases, continuously. the trend of increasing data allowances across their broadband plans and The Internet of Things is still in its bundled product offerings as the key infancy, but the diverse and expanding strategy for customer acquisition. set of applications is expected to be A number of RSPs have introduced the backbone of the fourth industrial ‘unlimited’ data plans to the market. revolution and lead to a further step- change in connectivity. The longer-term Subscription Video on Demand services introduction of 5G mobile technology, have already had a significant impact which is expected to offer significant on data consumption in Australia, most improvement in performance over noticeably following the introduction of today’s 4G mobility products, will bring Netflix in March 2015. From March 2015 additional connectivity competition to June 2016, the average data to the market along with opportunities consumption per household on the nbnTM for nbn. network grew by ~59 per cent to 137 GB (download and upload) per month. 3.2 Australian market New challengers could leverage their core customer service strengths to offer overview viable alternatives, and tailor innovative The Australian fixed connectivity sector offerings to grow their market share as is transforming as customers migrate the nbnTM network reaches scale. Direct to the nbnTM network and revenue shifts fixed line infrastructure competition in from fixed line voice services. Across the Brownfields residential sector Australia, total penetration of broadband continues, as incumbent has grown to 73 per cent12 of households telecommunications providers extend with an average speed of 8 Mbps,13 and leverage their existing fibre network of which the nbnTM network currently assets to provide wholesale FTTB accounts for approximately 15 per cent products. In the Greenfields residential of active connections. sector, multiple infrastructure providers continue to operate alongside nbn. 11 nbn analysis based on research from industry organisations. 12 ABS 2015. 13 Akamai’s state of the internet Q4 2015 report. © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 35
4. Operating plan Management has prepared its 4.1 Product and customer second cross-functional plan, strategy with awareness of known The purpose of the product and customer challenges, execution fronts strategy is to provide high-speed and interdependencies facing ubiquitous products at affordable prices the implementation of the nbnTM to all Australians. This is achieved through network. This version of the plan providing a wholesale network available has been refined based on an on equal terms to all access seekers. additional year of experience and Wholesale product construct will continue to evolve over time. nbn has built its core product offering around the nbnTM Ethernet product, a technology-agnostic solution. It separates the choice of network deployment technology from the RSP and end user. Regardless of the access technology, an RSP can offer products and services to its end users in a consistent manner, reducing the need to develop customised products and processes. This enables RSPs to build a diverse range of products for the residential and business segments across 36 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
a range of access technologies and each premises based on a range of product components, ordered under wholesale speeds from 12 Mbps to nbn’s Wholesale Broadband Agreement. 1 Gbps downstream and 1 Mbps to 400 Mbps upstream. The end-to-end nbnTM product construct is made up of two key components: 2. Connectivity Virtual Circuit (CVC): in the second part, the AVCs are 1. Access Virtual Circuit (AVC): in the routed through the nbnTM network first part of the product construct, to the Point of Interconnect (POI) the end user connects to the nbnTM where the RSP connects to network via a suitable User Network the network. CVC is provisioned Interface element. This connection on an aggregate basis across all constitutes an AVC – a virtual premises per RSP for a specific network element that represents the POI and dimensioned by the RSP access connection to the end-user based on the RSP’s network premises. An AVC is provisioned for contention strategy. Exhibit 5: Product construct User Network Interface SATELLITE Network Access Termination Virtual Device Circuit End-User Premises User Network Interface WIRELESS Access FIXED Network Termination Virtual NETWORK- Device Circuit CONNECTIVITY TO-NETWORK End-User Premises VIRTUAL CIRCUIT INTERFACE User Network Interface Network Access HFC HFC Termination Virtual Device Circuit End-User Premises User Network Interface FTTN/B/dp First Socket (SDU) Access COPPER Virtual MDF (MDU) Circuit End-User Premises Point-of-Interconnect User Network Interface Network Access FTTP Termination FIBRE Virtual Device Circuit data ports voice ports End-User Premises Product roadmap nbn also operates a Product Development Forum as a consultation mechanism with nbn maintains an Integrated Product RSPs and relevant Consumer Advocacy Roadmap which sets out the expected Groups, providing a pathway to influence product development pipeline over the nbn’s product development pipeline. next three years, available on the nbnTM website. The aim is to provide RSPs and nbn supports RSPs in the provision industry with a clear view of the expected of services to business end users by upcoming releases in nbn’s product providing optional product features portfolio. This allows them to prepare which can be combined to build their own product developments, business offerings, including: marketing and workforce. © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 37
4. Operating Plan (continued) • higher speed TC-1 & TC-2 for multi-line • Cell Site Access Service: providing voice and symmetric data applications: support for mobile telephony a range of symmetric Committed operators to use nbnTM network Information Rate (CIR) products to capacity to route mobile voice and support business applications such data back to a telecommunications as video conferencing, virtual private operator’s own network. networks and similar business connectivity solutions Where permissible within the constraints of the regulatory environment and • enhanced service levels: a range of Statement of Expectations, nbn enhanced service level options for continues to evaluate and prototype service assurance in the event of a fault. additional product and service offerings to explore opportunities to leverage its nbn seeks to maximise the value of its network and technology assets. network infrastructure by developing complementary product offerings such as: Customer and end-user strategy • Technology Choice: a program which The product and pricing strategy aims to allows individuals and groups to co-fund balance the financial requirements of nbn the construction of an alternate access with the overall health of the broadband technology. The Technology Choice Area ecosystem. To achieve that ambition, Switch program was launched in April nbn has identified two key segments: 2015 and the Individual Premises Switch capability was released in September • Residential Services 2015, with RSPs now able to apply for technology amendments for end users • Business Services. Exhibit 6: Product, Pricing, Network Deployment and Marketing Strategy Goal Sustainably optimise revenue Market segments Residential Segment Business Segment Incremental Revenue Optimise residential revenue Optimise business revenue Leverage existing network by supporting early service by providing product and and technology assets to migration and adoption of operational capability to create new products and higher speed tiers support business needs service offerings Strategy Elements Product Pricing Network Marketing • Consistent • Consistent Product Deployment • nbn marketing Product Pricing: pricing • Delivery of RFS to drive Construct: to independent footprint awareness, simplify RSP of each access • Footprint interest and processes and technology14 provided in large, intention to operations • Two-part Pricing: contiguous and migrate • Configurable provides RSP marketable areas • Cooperative Product flexibility to • Deployment marketing Components: manage content across both programs speeds, capacities, and end-user residential with RSPs and traffic classes experience and business channel partners • Configurable • Dimension-based premises, and in to support Service Levels: CVC Pricing: complex premises migration optional enhanced stimulate network • Marketing service levels to usage growth analytics and support business while improving feedback to • Consistency end-user ensure marketing across access experience and effectiveness and technologies as supporting RSP cost efficiency far as possible economics 14 There are some small variations in satellite pricing in order to implement fair usage policies unique to the satellite platform. 38 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
All of the services nbn supplies are The forecast is based on a set of regulated and provided on a wholesale- key assumptions: only, open-access, non-discriminatory basis. nbn publishes standard terms and • average ARPU for residential and conditions (developed in consultation business is expected to grow from with customers) and then enters into $43 in FY16 to $52 by FY20 with a bilateral supply agreements with its strong contribution from business customers on the basis of these terms revenue and consistent with the retail and conditions. nbn has also given the market opportunity Australian Competition and Consumer • take-up rate across residential and Commission (ACCC) a Special Access business areas by FY20 to be at Undertaking (SAU) in relation to key approximately 70 per cent. price and non-price obligations that works in conjunction with nbn’s supply ARPU agreements. The SAU covers FTTP, fixed wireless and satellite services and nbn is The main drivers for the estimated currently developing a variation to cover growth in ARPU are: the balance of the MTM technologies. • increase in end-user wholesale speed Product pricing tiers: demand for higher speed bandwidths is expected to increase, nbn is conscious that pricing of its AVC pushing up AVC ARPU and CVC product construct elements are a very important part of an RSP’s overall • increase in end-user download volume: economics and is seeking to ensure that end users are enjoying a proliferation of its pricing mechanisms are fair and video-streaming services and are using continue to facilitate uptake and migration more devices per household with new of services to the nbnTM network, while data-intensive applications. This forecast also providing an incentive to RSPs to is supported further through the dimension their network to maximise introduction of DBD from 1 June 2016 end-user experience. that discounts the CVC price as greater bandwidth is provisioned per end user To achieve this goal, nbn has introduced a Dimension Based Discounting (DBD) • business products: driven in part scheme. This has resulted in a reduction of by micro and small business CVC pricing from $17.50/month per Mbps segments, currently underserved to $15.75/month per Mbps for the first by existing retailers. applicable discount period, with further moves in the discount available as the Take-up rate industry average CVC capacity per end Beyond FY20, overall Australian market user changes. The calculation is currently penetration of fast broadband speeds based on an industry average and nbn is is forecast to grow to 73-75 per cent of working closely with the industry to enable nbn’s covered network depending on an RSP-specific DBD structure. the geographical location. This is Further evaluation and evolution of constrained by: CVC pricing and the overall nbn pricing • take-up of mobile-only products mechanism is expected to continue to (estimated ~15-16 per cent of premises, ensure that nbn’s pricing methodology mainly for groups with low traffic supports network uptake and utilisation. needs and high mobility needs) Revenue drivers • vacant premises (estimated ~8.5-9.5 per cent of premises, assuming that Annual revenue is expected to grow ~40 per cent of holiday homes will from $0.4 billion in FY16 to $5.0 billion have an nbnTM network connection) in FY20, a 12-fold increase. © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 39
4. Operating Plan (continued) • fibre alternatives (estimated ~1.5 per during the design and construction cent of premises, based on existing fixed phase, and also as new technologies line alternative fibre RFS footprints). or processes emerge. Some areas may be serviced by multiple technologies. 4.2 Network technology This flexibility is at the heart of nbn’s planning strategy to provide access to fast broadband to all Australians as soon The nbn planning approach determines as possible. nbn has therefore provided which technologies are utilised on an indicative ranges for the number of area-by-area basis so as to minimise premises covered by each technology. peak funding, maximise speed of rollout, Technology allocation will continue optimise economic returns and enhance to be optimised as further detailed the viability of nbn. The multi- planning information becomes available. technology approach provides the The base case varies from last year’s flexibility for nbn to select the most Corporate Plan as we continue to cost-effective and efficient technology optimise for the fastest and least for each area. This leads to a faster expensive technology. The reduction in rollout, which brings forward revenue HFC premises reflects a transition of and minimises funding requirements. higher cost HFC premises to FTTN/B/dp following further understanding of The anticipated technology to be network planning and design and deployed in communities may change delivery arrangements. depending on a number of factors Table 2: Proportion of premises covered by each technology Corporate Plan 2017 Base case End of End of End of End of Rollout Rollout Rollout Rollout (FY20) (M) (% of Total) (FY20) (M) (% of Total) Technology FTTP 2.0-2.5 17-21 2.0 17 FTTN/B/dp 5.1-6.5 43-54 6.1 51 HFC 2.5-3.2 21-27 2.8 24 Fixed Wireless and Satellite 0.9-1.1 8 1.0 8 Total Australia 11.9 100 11.9 100 Note: The operational and financial metrics in section 5 (Table 4) represent the current base case within the above range. The multi-technology approach allows indicate that FTTdp is a viable technology nbn flexibility to adapt for technology option, and nbn is investigating its advancements. For example, nbn is introduction into the technology mix, currently trialling FTTdp which extends subject to commercial arrangements. fibre further into the network and New technology introductions emphasise leverages existing copper for the lead-in the need for ongoing flexibility in nbn’s to premises from the curb. Initial trials technology selection planning. 40 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
nbn also looks to continually improve its FTTN successfully completed its trial underlying architecture. A trial deploying phase and commercially launched in ‘skinny fibre’ was recently conducted September 2015 with wholesale speeds and will be implemented through the of up to 100 Mbps downstream and network. Skinny fibre reduces the size of 40 Mbps upstream. FTTB commercially fibre optical cables used in deployment. launched in March 2015 and continues The implementation of skinny fibre can to allow nbn to serve multi dwelling units drive cost reductions and efficiencies, competitively and effectively. As at 30 particularly in the FTTP Greenfields build. June 2016, 900 buildings have been delivered RFS with FTTB. Upgrade path The FTTN program has delivered 663,000 In order to balance the tension of premises RFS as at the end of FY16. continuous technological progress and changing end-user demand, the The program continues to explore the nbnTM network is being built to deliver strategic, commercial and engineering wholesale headline speeds and provide benefits of FTTdp and how it could clear upgrade paths for each technology be introduced. to cater for future forecast use as and Critical path and milestones when market dynamics are present. Pivotal to success for nbn is building to, and maintaining, peak levels of 4.3 Network deployment throughput month-on-month throughout FY17 and FY18. At the same time, the FTTP program must continue to monitor the performance of the copper network in Overview line with its copper rehabilitation strategy. The Brownfield FTTP program is approaching maturity and has delivered Copper rehabilitation strategy 1.1 million premises RFS. Elements of Telstra’s copper network (leading from the node to the premises) The Greenfield FTTP program aspires are key components in the FTTN to be the infrastructure provider of ‘first architecture. Field studies undertaken choice’. In FY16, 89,000 incremental on more than 13,000 joints, together Greenfield premises were made RFS. with early stage operations of the network, indicate the condition of the FTTP will continue to be used where copper network to be in line with it is the most appropriate and viable expectations. The performance of the technology option, or alternatively copper network will continue to be through the Technology Choice program. monitored as the rollout progresses. Critical path and milestones The Greenfields program will continue HFC with the implementation of ‘skinny fibre’, Overview and other access technologies will be introduced into the program during FY17. The HFC program involves the augmentation and expansion of the Telstra and Optus HFC networks. FTTN Construction and augmentation has Overview commenced on both of these networks. This was the first program to launch an A pilot in Redcliffe, QLD, was concluded alternative fixed broadband technology in February 2016, with RSPs delivering to FTTP. The program started scaling trial end-user speeds of up to 103 Mbps rapidly in FY16. download and up to 43 Mbps upload.* * Refer to Disclaimer on Page 12. © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017 41
4. Operating Plan (continued) The Telstra HFC network in a trial in Ocean On 1 October 2015, nbn launched its Reef, WA, delivered similar results. first broadband satellite, Sky Muster,TM into orbit. The handover to managed Following these successful trials, service providers Ericsson (Network commercial services were launched in June Operations) and Optus (Flight 2016. A critical milestone was achieved in Operations) is complete and mechanisms April 2016 with the signing of the Telstra agreed with RSPs to ensure effective HFC Delivery Agreement. The agreement management of network capacity. complements and streamlines the existing arrangements nbn has with Telstra. In April 2016 the satellite service came into commercial service. The second As at 30 June 2016, build had commenced satellite will be launched and capacity on 61,000 premises and more than 18,000 brought into service in FY17. premises have been delivered RFS. Critical path and milestones Critical path and milestones Key priorities for the program are: Key priorities for the program are: • complete migration of ISS users • stand up all necessary operational elements of the HFC Delivery • launch the second satellite in Agreement with Telstra October 2016 • finalise potential long-term • continue to develop enhanced arrangements with Optus. product offering. Fixed Wireless Transit network Overview Overview The Fixed Wireless program extends The transit program provides the core the nbnTM network beyond the reach of site, transport and network capability the fixed line footprint. Operating since required to deliver the five access 2011, the program is managed through technology programs. a turn-key delivery contract with Ericsson as the primary vendor. Network While the initial footprint is largely deployment is mature with the 100,000th complete, the shift to the multi-technology end user activated in April 2016. mix presents new footprint, capability and capacity requirements and therefore At the end of FY16, 1,482 live sites have the transit program continues to adapt been built covering 421,000 premises. its plan to support each technology. Critical path and milestones Critical path and milestones Key priorities for the program are: Key priorities for the program are: • continue to optimise site capacity • continual rollout of the transit network to serve more premises to support the scaled deployment of multiple access technologies • delivery of required capacity upgrades without network disruption. • completing the phase one migration of the Interim POIs to Permanent POIs Satellite • continued improvement of how nbn Overview monitors and manages the bandwidth The satellite program is nbn’s solution of transit links. to cost effectively provide high-speed broadband to rural and remote Australians. 42 © 2016 nbn co limited | Corporate Plan 2017
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