Construction and Smart City Market Opportunities in Vietnam - Business Finland Market Opportunity Analysis by FinnSEA Nordesk OÜ
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Construction and Smart City Market Opportunities in Vietnam Business Finland Market Opportunity Analysis by FinnSEA Nordesk OÜ 22nd January, 2020
Table of Contents 1. Project scope 2. Executive summary 3. Country data of Vietnam 4. The demand for Finnish construction and smart city solutions in Vietnam 5. Opportunities in Vietnam 6. Potential sales leads 7. Vietnam’s construction sector value chain 8. Business environment in Vietnam 9. Stakeholder interviews 10. Next steps 11. Business Finland funding options 12. Appendix 22.1.2020 2
Project scope Objectives o To define construction sector market opportunity in Vietnam o To identify customers, competitors and business environment in Vietnam (value chain) o To provide enough information for Business Finland for developing supporting activities for selected Finnish companies The analysis is addressing on o Identifying relevant construction sector segments in the Vietnamese market for Finnish companies’ offering o Identifying the most potential application areas for the various solutions provided by the same companies o Identifying key stakeholders, customers, competitors and potential partners in the construction business (value chain) 22.1.2020 4
Why Vietnam? Although well known for Finnish authorities and government, Vietnam has largely remained unknown and distant for Finnish companies and grand public. Since 2009 when Finpro, nowadays Business Finland, opened a local office in Ho Chi Minh, the interest and activities by Finnish companies have incr eased here. The traditional ODA financed projects in water sector have anyhow a much longer history and have largely contributed to the good Finnish image we have today. Since 1986, when the new policy “Doi Moi” was introduced, the country has started to grow steadily and the business environment become more allowing. As of today, companies do business in Vietnam on a large scale, the country being one of the best choices for selling new technologies and solutions, or outsourcing production. With multiple trade agreements and soon to be signed EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), most of the entry barriers will cease to exist and customs duties will lower to 0% for approximately 70% of the nomenclatures (customs codes). The remaining 30% will gradually lower to 0% after a transition period. EVFTA will contribute to a large increase of business between the countries, including construction material, machinery and other sectors. Vietnam’s rapid growth and increasing purchasing power are lucrative for all industry sectors. Industries invest in automation and production solutions, the population invests in real-estate, cars and other previously too high-priced items, and the infrastructure needs substantial improvements. This all turns to business in construction and smart city sectors. Therefore, FinnSEA has made a Market Opportunity research for Business Finland to increase the awareness of the business potential in the construction and smart city sectors, and to provide more detailed knowledge and support for companies willing to invest time and effort in one of the fastest growing markets in the world. The demand is high but the supply today comes mainly from competitors of Finland. We hope this analysis will provide you sufficient information to activate Vietnam as your new export opportunity. We are here to provide you additional information and hands-on support to analyze your detailed opportunity, help for finding partners and support you in all phases of your business development. Thank you for your interest for this opportunity. Yours, Pietro Karjalainen, FinnSEA Nordesk OÜ 22.1.2020 6
Big population supports growth • Vietnam has nearly the same surface area as Finland but almost 20 times more population, 30% of people living in cities. • Major cities are HCMC (Saigon) with 13.5 million estimated population and 7.5 million motorbikes. The capital city is Hanoi with some 7.5 million people and all embassies and ministries. • 300.000 new cars are registered yearly 22.1.2020 8
Economic key figures GDP (purchasing power parity): $648.7 billion (2017 est.) GDP (official exchange rate): $220.4 billion (2017 est.) GDP - real growth rate: 6.8% (2017 est.) GDP - per capita (PPP): $6,900 (2017 est.) GDP - composition, by sector of origin: o agriculture: 15.3% (2017 est.) o industry: 33.3% (2017 est.) o services: 51.3% (2017 est.) Labor force: 54.8 million (2017 est.) Labor force - by occupation: o agriculture: 40.3% o industry: 25.7% o services: 34% (2017) Unemployment rate: 2.2% (2017 est.) Imports: $202.6 billion (2017 est.) Imports - partners: China 25.8%, South Korea 20.5%, Japan 7.8%, Thailand 4.9% (2017) 22.1.2020 9
Changes since 1995 1995 2019 (est.) Change in 2019 Population (millions) 75,2 97,0 N/A GDP (US$ billions) 21 262 7,02 % Average Exchange rate USD/VND 11 058 23 170 0% Lending Interest Rate (%) 20,1 7% -5,41 % FDI (US$ billions) 6,9 38 7,20 % Mobilephone Subscribers 15 000 143 000 000 12,50 % Car Ownership 20 000 3 560 000 12 % Individuals using internet (% of population) 0 70 4% 22.1.2020 10
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Vietnam’s history The conquest of Vietnam by France began in 1858 and was completed by 1884. It became part of French Indochina in 1887. Vietnam declared independence after World War II, but France continued to rule until its 1954 defeat by communist forces under Ho Chi MINH. Under the Geneva Accords of 1954, Vietnam was divided into the communist North and anti-communist South. US economic and military aid to South Vietnam grew through the 1960s in an attempt to bolster the government, but US armed forces were withdrawn following a cease-fire agreement in 1973. Two years later, North Vietnamese forces overran the South reuniting the country under communist rule. Despite the return of peace, for over a decade the country experienced little economic growth because of conservative leadership policies, the persecution and mass exodus of individuals - many of them successful South Vietnamese merchants - and growing international isolation. However, since the enactment of Vietnam's "doi moi" (renovation) policy in 1986, Vietnamese authorities have committed to increased economic liberalization and enacted structural reforms needed to modernize the economy and to produce more competitive, export- driven industries. The communist leaders maintain tight control on political expression but have demonstrated some modest steps toward better protection of human rights. The country continues to experience small-scale protests, the vast majority connected to either land-use issues, calls for increased political space, or the lack of equitable mechanisms for resolving disputes. The small-scale protests in the urban areas are often organized by human rights activists, but many occur in rural areas and involve various ethnic minorities such as the Montagnards of the Central Highlands, Hmong in the Northwest Highlands, and the Khmer Krom in the southern delta region. Source: CIA factbook 22.1.2020 12
The demand for Finnish construction and smart city solutions in Vietnam
Why is Vietnam’s construction and smart city market interesting for you? Construction industry growth rate: 12% in 2018 The industry output is expected to grow from US$57.5 billion in 2018 to US$84.0 billion in 2023 Growing population rate (2.6 %/y) especially in big cities, Ho Chi Minh city 13.5 Million people and Hanoi 6.5 Million people. Cities grow upward, apartments more popular than houses due to land price o Population Density: HCMC: 4,171 person/km2, Hanoi: 2,239 person/km2; in comparison to Helsinki 1,418 person/km2 By 2020, among the 70% of the population of working age, about 3.4 million workers and disadvantaged people need an accommodation/stable housing especially in HCMC and Hanoi o About 700 thousand apartments or at least 12.5 million m2 of social housing floors towards the low-income population in urban areas are needed o Projects in the city center mostly belong to the luxury / high-end apartment segment at an expensive price High urbanization speed: HCMC: 3%, Hanoi: 5% o Insufficient infrastructure both for transport system, rural zone expansion planning and urban development solution o Imminent need to upgrade residential and highway construction; coming demand for industrial construction o Increasing demand for new construction and repair of houses - businesses expanding factories, processing industry, shops, wholesale, retail, real estate business... Transport infrastructure development as the government's top priority over the next 10 years o Worsening traffic congestion for years in HCMC (home to 13 million people including migrants): 7.6 million motorbikes and 700,000 cars on the roads, while public transport is woefully underdeveloped o Building new systems (highways, airports…) and upgrading/improving existing ones (railways, seaports…) o Costs for construction basic works accounted for about 25% of total Government expenditure from 2015-2018 22.1.2020 14
Some highlights of the demand Infrastructure projects are at the heart of the “HCMC Zone” (grouping HCMC and 7 provinces in the Southeast and Mekong Delta region) o Other provinces also strive to modernize infrastructure, i.e. Thai Nguyen with $2 billion in investment capital value with the presence of major real estate businesses (as of July 2018) Orientation (necessity endorsed by the government) towards smart city/“city in the city” concept o The trend of building a commercial center within the real estate projects is increasingly popular o Read more on “city in the city”: https://www.vir.com.vn/cities-within-cities-becoming-more-prevalent-across-vietnam-71638.html Materials stands for 60-70% of total construction costs. Increasing requirement for sustainable (new/green) construction materials and applications (both interior and exterior products) o Vietnamese cities have started applying energy-saving lamps (LED) to urban lighting since 2015 but needs also smart control systems o Investment in green material production technology has grown rapidly over the past 10 years, especially in building materials groups such as cement, tiles and glass The demand for construction machinery is quite high. Almost no local construction machinery producers, nearly 100% of construction machines are imported from Japan, China and USA Cold-chain supply industry is expected to reach US$ 1.8 billion by 2021 Water purifiers, air purifiers are increasingly popular among users, especially due to recent issues in water and air polluti on in Hanoi and HCMC Renewable energy projects including Waste-to-Energy plants are finally coming through and increasing rapidly in a few years time Considered to have the best wind resources in SEA, Vietnam is the country with one of the highest potentials in the region for both onshore and offshore wind, with an expected capacity of 1GW to be installed by 2021 22.1.2020 15
Growth statistics of Vietnam’s construction sector Construction production value growth 2018 vs. 2017 o +7.6 % in home construction o +5.6 % in civil engineering works o +13.8 % in specialized construction Investment capital growth rate: 25% (YTD Sep’19) compared to the same period in 2018 o Sectors attracting strong capital inflows: construction, processing industry, manufacturing, real estate business, electricit y and water, accommodation services o In the field of infrastructure solely, from 2015 to 2025, the average demand for infrastructure investment in Vietnam is about $ 16.7 billion Construction materials industry forecasted growth rate 2019: 7.2 %. o Sustainable materials are more and more taken into consideration especially for public works and smart city programs (smart areas/buildings/apartments) Industrial construction was growing in 2019: Vietnam has the potential to become a new industrial center of SEA. The market seems full, but the business is in renewing, increasing capacity o It was expected that by the end of Sept. 2019, 87.5% of industrial zones are operating with collective wastewater treatment s ystem o Vietnam's industrial real estate segment is growing: FDI capital has increased by 10 fold during the past decade 22.1.2020 16
Vietnam residential market last 5 years and next 5 years outlook – HCMC market Growth rate: 160% “Freezing" Strong growth Vibrant market Booming Slowdown Sharp decline Trend forecast period Real estate prices go +80% in nb. of housing The market was Highest growth scale -42% in nb. of projects, Housing offers (re)appear • Ongoing restricted downhill without transactions vs. 2014. dominated by the mid- archived. +60% in nb. of -40% in nb. of apartments, only after August, with approval procedures. braking, many products Prices increased by end segment (79.7%). projects and +50% in -74% in the total area of ~80% coming from a • From Q3 2019 to drop value up to -50%. 5 to 15%. First alert of supply- nb. of houses vs. 2016. h ousing projects vs. 2017. project in Dist. 9. Limited 2021, +26,900 units demand deviation, lack In terms of pricing, offers but very positive will be launched for of affordable and compared to 2012: sales record at higher sale, with >50% from especially social grade A apartments: prices compared to 2018. District 9 and Binh housings. +45%, grade B: +67%, Obvious lack of affordable Chanh. Cu Chi grade C: +54%; land in and social housings. accounts for nearly Dist. 7: +50%, East 50% of land sales areas: +130 to 170%. transactions. In Q3/2019: onl y 8 • District 9 and 12 lead new projects the villa segment. a pproved eligible in HCMC, vs . 22 i n Ha noi 22.1.2020 17
Vietnam residential market last 5 years and next 5 years outlook – Hanoi market “Freezing" Strong growth Stable progress Stable progress Slowdown Sharp decline Trend forecast period Real estate prices go +70% in nb. of housing Most transactions were The market was -10% in nb. of apartments Significant decrease in new • The land price policy downhill without transactions vs. 2014. completed in the middle dominated by the mid- vs. 2017. Land prices in a project apartment supply is announced to braking, many products Prices increased by and high-end segments. end segment. High series of projects increased vs. 2018, of which 30% increase from 2020. drop value up to -50%. 3 to 7%. Prices increased slightly competition in supply sharply. Affordable and coming from East and 50% • Some developers regarding some projects leaded to stable (even especially social housings from West areas – a new may keep their near the city center or decreasing) prices. First offers were much invested. “hot spot” of the city in project progress well planned. focus on affordable both population density delayed the progress housing segment. and transport to increase the value infrastructure investment. of their products. Stable apartment pricing level compared to 2018. 22.1.2020 18
Vietnam residential market last 5 years and next 5 years outlook – HCMC & Hanoi focus Price index of real estate as per Q2 / 2019 Unit: index, Q1/2017 = 100 points Same development phase in both cities: 2011 – 2013: “Freezing" period, decreasing prices, weak liquidation 2014 – 2015: Recovery, new real estate projects, better purchasing power 2016 – 2018: Development stage, with more attractive market movements in HCMC than in Hanoi. o Higher price and better occupation rate in HCMC o Profit margin in HCMC: 8-9% vs. 4-6% in Hanoi o Real estates in HCMC are easier to buy, to resell and to invest thanks to its dynamic offerings o While people in Hanoi prefer high-class and luxury real estates, there Average selling price in Hanoi and HCMC are rooms for every segment in HCMC Unit: VND million/m2 2019: Decline, deceasing number of housings offers, due to: o Strict inspection and review from Government on a series of on-going or upcoming projects, few new approval or construction licenses granted o Limited credit on real estate from State bank After 2020: Residential market is forecasted to remain as the most active sector in terms of investment enquiries. Foreign development groups (particularly Japan, Korea and China) continued to explore the development opportunities in prime locations as well as in surrounding neighborhoods. 22.1.2020 19
Vietnam residential market last 5 years and next 5 years outlook – HCMC & Hanoi focus Total supply Luxury High-end Average price More on apartments supply and pricing evolution Mid-end Low-end / Social Low-end / Social Mid-end Estimated future supply Selling rate High-end Luxury (‘000 units) (USD/m2) o In Q4 2019, while the price of apartments in Hanoi has increased modestly, in HCMC, HCMC apartment prices hit a high record, up to +78.2% y-o-y and +39.8% q-o-q. o The number of sales in HCMC Q4 2019 decreased by half compared to Q4 2018, mainly due to the new supply limited by the approval process. Supply in Hanoi decreased also by 18% compared to the same period last year. o From 2020, demand and price will largely follow a positive trend in affordable and mid-end projects. Hanoi High-end and affordable projects will continue to witness a continued decline in demand, especially in investment demand. 22.1.2020 20
Vietnam residential market last 5 years and next 5 years outlook – HCMC & Hanoi focus Key words for 2019 o Stable and consistent in both HCMC and Hanoi, especially in the first 6 months of the year o Signs of a decrease in both project supply, housing product supply and transaction volume. Recovery and slightly growth starting from Q3 o No "real estate bubble" in the market despite the increasing prices (whole market price: +21.6%, high-end segment: +52.9% vs. 2018). o Condotel* is a new business model but not as successful as expected due to limited offers, high price and slow procedure “Real estate fever” occurred in District 9 or Can Gio in HCMC; or Gia Lam, Dong Anh in Hanoi, where the price is pumped up considerably. This also the case in most localities across the country, especially in Da Nang, Quang Nam and some areas aroun d. Number of apartment offerings is low at record level: Only 4.660 apartments open for sales in Hanoi (-65.3% compared to last quarter), 4.100 unites in HCMC, lowest level since 2014. However, the absorption rate of high-end apartment segment reached 89.7%, which shows the demand and purchasing power of the housing market in HCMC is still strong. * A condo hotel, also known as a condotel, hotel condo or a contel, is a building which is legally a condominium, but which is operated as a hotel, offering short term rentals, and which maintains a front desk. 22.1.2020 21
Vietnam residential market last 5 years and next 5 years outlook – HCMC & Hanoi focus Outlook for 2020 o The legal corridor for the real estate market is gradually improved towards a stable and sustainable development. o More places for affordable housing, as well as for small and micro apartments in high-end and mid-end projects. o Smart-city / smart urban model orientation. o Booming of commercial real estate including the development of office space (office-tel). • About 30,000-35,000 units are expected to be launched officially in • The residential market in 2020 is expected to see an influx HCMC Hanoi 2020, mainly contributed by Vinhomes Grand Park project in District of luxury apartments. An estimated 1,000 luxury units 9. from four projects are set to be launched next year, • It should be noted that the number is subject to a great deal of accounting for nearly one third of the total existing luxury uncertainty given the government’s tight control in granting land stock. use rights and construction licenses. • Expected heightening prices combined with positive • Strong demand is set to carry on and will boost the price further economic outlook will likely prompt buyers to rush to the across all sectors. market, thereby supporting transaction volumes. • However, the demand in high-end segment, especially from investors, is likely to slow down in long term as their already-high price level and low rental yield make it a less attractive investment. 22.1.2020 22
Vietnam residential market last 5 years and next 5 years outlook – HCMC & Hanoi focus Market trend forecasts for 2020 • Mid-end segment is the main demand driver: Mid-end projects • Newly launched projects are well – received: Vinhomes HCMC Hanoi with a launching price of USD 1,200-USD 1,700 per sqm remained Symphony in Long Bien District and Mipec Rubik 360 in Cau Giay the top performers, accounting for 70% of units sold in 2019 as District sales record over 90% and 70% of the launching units they were situated in good locations, offered a wide range of respectively within one week. Pre-sales rate of some new amenities, while still had large room for price increase, attractive projects is increasingly supported by foreign buyers thanks to to both owner-occupiers and investors. overseas marketing efforts made by local developers. • Limited new supply continues as a result of prolonged approval • Mid-end housing remains the major source of supply: In 2019, process: Only nearly 30,000 units for the whole 2019 officially around 32,060 new units launched , 75% attributed to the mid- launched in total (-20% vs. 2018, -30% vs. 2017). Of which, more end apartments. than 10,000 units from Vinhomes Grand Park D9 project. • Price growth stabilized across sub-markets: The average price • Prices accelerate to a new high amid limited supply: Record high level stood at USD 1,501 per sqm (+1.5% q-o-q). Mid-end average price in 4Q19 (+78.2% y-o-y, +39.8% q-o-q). Main segment, developed by reputable developers, was the best reasons: Most projects with lower prices were sold out, performer in terms of pricing. 1 notable luxury project in the city developers having projects launched in the quarter had more west area comeback to the market after a long delay with a soft – confidence in pricing given the tight supply. launching price at USD 6,000 – 8,000 per sqm, an exceptional high price recorded. 22.1.2020 23
Opportunities in Vietnam
Examples of infrastructure opportunities Transport infrastructure construction: Key transport projects for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision to 2050 o 1,811km North-South Expressway project ($17.9 billion) from Hanoi to Can Tho, between 2010-2023. o 2,300-2,700km of new highway construction and upgrades between 2015-2020 (announced by MoT). Note that only 18,000km throughout the country’s 28,000 km of roads were high quality paved national roads, only 26,000 paved or semi-paved provincial roads. North-South high-speed rail line linking capital city of Hanoi to HCMC aims for an increased 160km/hour and 200 km/hour by 2030 Long Thanh airport: construction scheduled at early 2021, 1st stage operation in 2025. By the end of 2018, the Ministry of Transport completed the replanning/reorganization of 22 airports across the country. The first metro lines in both HCMC and Hanoi have been halted/delayed for several years* but: o The 1st line, “Saigon Line (S)” (Line 1): 19.7 km length, 14 stations is under construction with option to extend to Bien Hoa or Binh Duong instead of Suoi Tien (dist. 9). Extended or not, the City request to complete the work by the end of 2020 and start commercial operations early in 2021. o The construction for the 1st phase of the 2nd line, “Ba Queo line” (Line B) in HCMC, initially set to resume in 2020, now scheduled for 2024: 11 stations (10 underground) 11.3 km length including 0.8 km elevated and 9.3 km underground. $2.17 billion from ODA fu nds. o The capital has started planning for the second line, “Nhon-Hanoi Railway Station” route (Line 3): 12 stations, 12.5 km length of a double-track railway including 8.5 km elevated section (expected to be finish in April 2021) and 4 km underground (to be opened in December 2022). Tunnel drilling work for 4 underground metro stations will begin early 2020. $1.48 billion from ODA funds would be borrowed to build a new metro section in 2021. 22.1.2020 25
Examples of private/public real-estate construction opportunities Housing construction counts for 64% of the construction market output. Social housing is highly needed in big cities, and smart city development program towards 2030 is approved by the Prime Minister. o Huge urban development projects in line with this program. HCMC aims to become the first smart city in Vietnam. HCMC urban ar ea will focus on developing technology, telecommunication, healthcare, culture and education. o HCMC: Thu Thiem Eco-Smart City, Vinhomes Grand Park, Saigon Sports City / Hanoi: Vinhomes Smart City, North Hanoi Smart City… Vinhomes Grand Park: "all-in-one" planning on 271 ha with a full school system from preschool to inter-school, hospital, shopping mall & entertainment, park, lake, mini-golf park, shophouse and 45-storey office building. Ambition to be the first smart city - park in the dynamic Saigon, to manage and operate with a comprehensive smart ecosystem applying AI, IoT technology in urban management and operation, creating a trendy lifestyle, both in scale and uniqueness. Saigon Sports City: https://www.vir.com.vn/500-million-saigon-sports-city-to-be-started-next-month-70527.html Leisure housing: Vietnam is a strong and attractive emerging market for hi-end hotels and resorts with many foreign investors in the last 3 years, mainly from Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Renovation programs have been launched in number of international hotel operators. Vietnamese investors/developers prefer building new hotels and resorts. o Hanoi and HCMC are expected to remain the top 2 cities for hospitality investment, followed by coastal tourist hotspots Da Nang, Nha Trang and Phu Quoc which offer much land left to develop with lower price. Global hotel giants are looking to new tourism destinations such as Q uy Nhon, Quang Ninh... o HCMC: 1,100 new rooms added, lifting overall supply to 20,200 rooms, 55.4% in the upmarket segment. Hanoi: over 1,000 rooms w ill be added in the last quarter 2019, increasing total supply to 18,700. By the end of 2021, the capital will have more than 20,400 rooms, 59.8% in t he upscale segment. Imported machinery and equipment demand, including construction machinery, is high. o As per the General Department of Customs, over $32 billion spent in 2018. Nearly 40% coming from China (means approximately $ 1 billion per month on average from this country).The value of construction machinery import is between $ 3 and 4 billion per year, equivalent to 12 ,000 to 15,000 units (mainly excavators). 22.1.2020 26
Other issues supporting the growth Snapshot of foreign businesses relocating their factories to Vietnam China+1 phenomena together with US-China tariff war has seen a rush of western companies moving their manufacturing base from China to Vietnam. The move was already in place due higher production costs in China but has accentuated after the trade war. Such relocation from China to Vietnam concerns SMEs as well as big companies. Also Chinese companies themselves are opening production plants in Vietnam. This all has created a shortage of premises in the market, fueling the new construction of industrial real estate. 22.1.2020 27
Snapshot of offerings relevant to this opportunity Following offering is obviously relevant but ask if you are unsure of your offering…you know your business and we know the ma rket… Sustainable and innovative construction materials o lightweight materials, green/natural-based materials, new-invented materials… New technology / smart solutions: o lighting & equipment monitoring (LED, sensors…), power generator, public transport/tech-driven traffic, AI, IoT, Big data technology… o Vietnam's telecommunications infrastructure is very good in comparison to other developing nations, the proportion of internet users is high and smart devices very popular Industrial and residential sector o building management systems, security devices, waste management, recycling processing, water treatment systems, electronic locks, various monitoring sensors… Transport infrastructure construction (expressways, bridges, inter-city railroads, river routes and seaports) o Construction machinery, surveillance, communications, ports / wharfs equipment… Social and public infrastructure (school, hospital…) are interested of sustainable architecture and environmental issues o More open spaces, green but functional o Cost-effective, eco-friendly materials/resource (LED, solar…) together with new technology application (automation, intelligent management…) 22.1.2020 28
Potential sales leads
Potential sales leads in Smart Cities BRG North Hanoi Smart City (Dong Anh), 272 ha, $4,138 billion. o Phase 1 (on total 5) started on 6/10/2019. 6 focus: Smart energy management technology, Smart transportation system, Smart security management, Smart classroom system, Smart economy and Smart life Keppel Land Sports City HCMC (District 2), 64 ha. $500 million. o Phase 1 (on total 2) started on 8/11/2019. Four focus areas: Innovative urban solutions, Smart security management, Smart transportation system, Smart environmental infrastructure solutions General “Smart Urban Scheme” for HCMC, 5-10-year vision. 3 focus: o Building telecommunication infrastructure, building a shared database and planning of the city o Building and managing intelligent services: traffic management, parking system, fee collection system, smart environment management (air, water, waste, noise), household and medical waste planning, health management o Increasing interactions with citizen initiatives Business opportunities for Finnish Smart technology in these projects o Smart lighting o Clean & wastewater treatment o Waste management systems o Smart locks, fire protection systems, security systems o Data management (resident registers, building management systems etc.) o Others 22.1.2020 30
Potential sales leads in industrial/leisure construction Industrial Construction - Factory construction, several foreign companies are considering moving their factories into Vietnam o Foxconn, $26 million in Quang Ninh o Sharp, $25 million in Binh Duong o Lenovo, 30ha in Bac Ninh Leisure Construction - Leisure housing (hotel & resort) are all growing sectors which require both new construction or renovation works. Condotel is a new trend. o Sunshine Empire in Hanoi: 6-star complex of financial tower-hotel-office-international commercial center, $2,500 million. Finishing date scheduled Q4/2020. Business opportunities for Finnish offerings in these projects o Smart lighting o Clean & wastewater treatment o Waste management systems o Smart locks, fire protection systems, security systems o Data management (resident registers, building management systems etc.) o Indoor air solutions o Others 22.1.2020 31
Vietnam’s construction sector value chain
Construction works data The value chain doesn’t change from western value chains, the main difference is that some of the players can be outside of Vietnam. Therefore i.e. design can be located in Singapore when the main contractor is a Singaporean company. There is no rule for this, each case is separate. Market entry efforts must be done in Vietnam but also in the region. Construction cost structure o Construction materials are the main cost, accounting for 60-70% of construction costs. In particular, steel accounts for ~60% of the cost of raw materials, cement 20%. o Labor force: only accounts for 15% of the total cost but it is a decisive component of the quality and progress of construction. o Construction heavy machinery: accounting for 10% of the cost, determining the construction capacity of the business. Vietnam does not have ability to manufacture construction machines by themselves, they are imported. Every year, the value of imported construction machines into Vietnam averages USD 835 million, of which 70% is from Japan, China and South Korea. Hand tools and similar share is not available Construction market cost and share in detail o Vietnam's construction industry is US$57.5 billion in 2018 o The construction production value in HCMC only in 2018: over VND 184 trillion = USD 7.9 billion o Construction phase: the most important cost of the project, in which foundation work accounts for 20-30%, raw construction 20- 40%, and finishing work 40-60%. In finishing work, Mechanical & Electrical Engineering (M&E) works count for 40-60% of total project volume. 22.1.2020 33
Construction sector value chain and potential client sectors Market Customer constituents and Construction process sectors and share share Labor Force Investors Subcontract Main ors contractors Investors Mixed actors (10-20%) Main Subcontract contractors ors Infrastructure / Local supplier Public works Raw (24%) Founda- Opera- Design Bidding tion construc- tions tion Building Materials (60-70%) Local distributor Industrial (12%) (raw material / end- Design Construction After market product) Equipment, Machinery (10- 20%) Building Maintena Ground Finishing Handover Housing (64%) permit clearance nce (Residential / Foreign supplier leisure) M&E Rep. office / Branch Finnish offerings Authori ties, Developers/ Equi pment & Building Investors, Architects, Investors, Property Key ma terials s uppliers Technical consultants, Contra ctors, Ma na gement & Consultancy, Cus tomers (ma nufacturers, Sub-contractors (public / pri vate investors) players whol esalers…) Engi neering & Design Servi ce provi ders compa nies 22.1.2020 34
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Your value chain Who is your target customer? o There is always one main contractor and a multitude of subcontractors. Depending of the product offering, the customer is either one. When proposing technology solutions the principal customer is main contractor, typically interested of cost savings, better quality or faster production time, but a specialized subcontractor can be the door opener and presenting the benefits of your solution to main contractor. o Investors very rarely are genuinely interested as they do buy turn-key solutions and are more interested of the final price. Unless your solution can significantly reduce the total price, do not waste your precious time with them. o Do not think that having a great technological solution or being Finnish alone automatically opens doors, you need network to reach C-level where decisions are made. This network can be through Team Finland, Chambers of Commerces to open the doors for you or specialized Consultants who typically open you the door but also follow you inside and support your market entry. Who pays the bills? o Private sector has they own financing models and Finnish companies normally do not need to worry of this issue. Financing is always needed for public sector activities The situation changes when the customer is public authority or state owned operator building public infrastructure. Vietnam is a developing country and as such doesn’t have the resources to build fast the needed infra. Therefore World Bank, Asian Development bank and foreign countries governments all finance substantial sums of Vietnamese infrastructure constructions. o Business Finland is a major funder for companies when they are developing their market. This means the phase where the market studies and partner search is done. o In Finland the public sector financing tool is called PIF and handled by Foreign Ministry. Vietnam has benefited for decades of Finnish support for constructing water projects all over the country and some other projects. More details can be found here https://um.fi/investointituki-kehitysmaille. ODA* projects offer lucrative sales possibilities but demand reasonably long processing times, 12+ months. o Finnfund is a development financier. They build a sustainable world by investing in responsible and profitable businesses in developing countries. They have invested in several projects in Vietnam and operate like any commercial fund, however never accepting a majority shareholder position. If your customers project and your solution fulfills following criteria : economic profitability, responsibility and development impacts, it might be suitable for Finnfund investment. More information here https://www.finnfund.fi/ 22.1.2020 36
Your value chain I am constantly asked this question: “Do Finnish companies need to contact/partner with the Government in every project?” Absolutely NO, private companies are fully independent and many of them 100% foreign owned. State owned (partly or full) construction companies operate independently and are as any commercial structure. However, they might have advantage of being partly state owned when public sector contractors are selected. Note that developing relationships with authorities is always important and helps to be known and promoted for projects. Networking is a must in Vietnam and local presence is needed for effective work. High value investment licenses are handled directly by the Prime Ministers office, instead of local authorities. 22.1.2020 37
Value network and snapshot of stakeholders Design Construction After market Suppliers Construction Process ODA State- Local People’s Local People’s financing owned Committee Committee National Private Foreign Private 22.1.2020 38
Example value chain for Bach My (industrial floor supplier) – a typical value chain of an SME Design Construction End client Investor Investor Main contractor Design company Sub - Sub - Sub - contractor 1 contractor 2 contractor 3 Bach My Aluminum & Glass Mechanical &Electric Floor www.concria.fi Suppliers 22.1.2020 39
Business environment in Vietnam
Competitors and partners are mixed project by project In most of the cases, the competition is any foreign company providing the same products/services in the market. Definition of competitor or partner varies project by project. Building equipment & machinery: 70% supplied by Japanese, Chinese, German and Korean brands. Transport infrastructure: International cooperation on metro projects: o in HCMC: Japanese contractor. Japanese, French, Italian and Korean design consultancy and materials. o in Hanoi: Chinese contractor. French and Japanese design consultancy and materials. Residential infrastructure: Vietnamese property developers/constructors (Vingroup, Novaland, Hoa Binh, Fecon…) vs. foreigners (Keppel Land, CapitaLand, CT&D…) Smart city development: o Potential international partnership on urban development & application areas: • Binh Duong – Netherlands (from 2015): Triple Helix model (state - school and enterprise) development • HCMC – Switzerland (4/2018): clean water, transportation system development, seaport… • HCMC – Finland (6/2018): smart health development, smart urban transportation, sport management, clean energy… • Hanoi – Spain (5/2019): Metropoli as strategy consulting partner for Ecopark project o Local data management and solutions suppliers: VNPT, Viettel, FPT, CMC… VNPT Group is cooperating to deploy smart cities for nearly 30 provinces and cities. Some focus areas proposed by VNPT to build smart cities for many provinces and cities are highly appreciated such as digital authorities, agriculture, tourism, environment and other fields (safety and security, urban planning, education, health and transportation ). o Some local enterprises such as Dien Quang (lighting & control) build and confirm their leader position (Vietnamese) in the industry by providing specialized solutions and products by segments: public roads, industrial facilities, household… under separate brand names ( Dien Quang Appollo, DQSmart, Dqhome, Homecare…). 22.1.2020 41
Enablers and challenges that make market entry easy or difficult for you Enablers o Clear policy from the Government in building smart cities and calling for foreign partners with experience in consulting and cooperation. o “Right moment”: 3 cities in Vietnam are targeted for joining the 26 ASEAN smart cities pilot network (HCMC, Hanoi, Da Nang). Key projects nationwide planned and on-going up to 2030. o Construction mechanization is becoming increasingly important. On average, each year Vietnam must spend 3 to 4 billion dollars to import construction machines from around the world. o Vietnam's construction market is strongly segmented and fiercely competitive, but relatively similar technology among contractors, leaving room for new expertise. o New regulations on the import of used machinery, equipment and chains, effective from June 15, 2019: Prohibited to import use d machinery, equipment, and production line technology of more than 10 years old and/or environmentally damaging and/or with capacity of les than 85% compared to initial performance. The ban on used machinery aims to limit the use of outdated, poor quality, and unsafe equipment in the country. Challenges o Some foreigner partners have been chosen / already started cooperating with Vietnamese cities on their urban project developm ent. o Low entry barrier in general, however regulations on foreign construction contractors : partnership with Vietnamese contracto rs is required. o Missing clear incentives or criteria for green procurement: clear policy and mechanisms are needed. o The development of smart city in Vietnam is an urgent but difficult requirement, because setting up a smart city model is syn onymous with the innovation of infrastructure system from education, transportation. o “Long-term” vision and partnership should be privileged since some projects should take time to be kicked -off. 22.1.2020 42
Finnish competitive advantage, arguments to be used without shame It is the image… Finland has been over 45 years in diplomatic relationship with at that time North Vietnam. That is highly appreciated still by the government and party, providing goodwill. Finland has contributed extensively in building Hanoi and other cities clean and wastewater systems. Everybody knows about Finland, latest when you mention water… Finland is known as a high-tech country. Finland ranks 26th/101 countries investing in Vietnam. Finland: leader in Europe in terms of smart city development, creating new business models and efficient city planning. Helsinki ranked 5th worldwide in terms of smart city governance. Finnish companies who have shown interest within authorities, companies, other stakeholders will be considered suppliers for current focus sectors in Vietnam. BUT nobody is going to contact you unless you do PROACTIVE work and have LOCAL PRESENCE. A superior product simply is not enough when your competitors are actively promoting themselves. 22.1.2020 43
Stakeholder interviews
Companies interviewed # Company Homepage Address Contact person Title Tel Email 1 Nguyen Kim holdings http://www.nguyenkimholdings.com/ 198 Nguyen Thi Mi nh Khai, District 1, HCMC Nguyen Le Hoang Anh Seni or Leasing Specialist 84 986 162 586 anh.nguyenlehoang@nguyenkimholdings.com TS2-12.02 The Tresor Building, 39 Ben Van Don, 2 WSP https://www.wsp.com Antti Ka rjalainen Di rector 84 934 154 400 antti.karjalainen@wsp.com Di s trict 4, HCMC 3 Rierckermann https://rieckermann.com/en/ 331 Nguyen Thuong Hien, District 10, HCMC Ma i Di nh Thai Chieu Bui lding Technology Specialist 84 937 243 068 chieu.mdt@rieckermann.com Project Ma nager & Stra tegy 4 G8A https://g8a-architects.com/ 71 Ha i Ba Trung, District 1, HCMC Nguyen Khanh Duy 84 938 502 585 duy.khanh@g8a-architects.com Devel opment No 81, Roa d 5, Va n Phuc Ci ty, Hiep Binh Phuoc 5 GT industrial http://www.gt-industrial.com.vn Nguyen Hoai Anh General Ma nager 84 904 858 386 hoaianh.nguyen@gt-industrial.com.vn Di s trict, Thu Duc Ward, HCMC Pa x Sky Bui lding, 123 Nguyen Dinh Chieu, District 3, Do not wish to disclose 6 Hoa Binh Group http://hoabinh-group.com/ Vu Anh Phuong Bi dding Department 84 918 204 931 HCMC 22.1.2020 45
Selected comments and quotes “Asian suppliers are quite good on technology and they have a big advantage to be close geographically so “The shopping mall concept has been also less expensive in terms of logistics and changing. Before, people went to a shopping production, and the most important is centre to make their purchases. Nowadays, they understand the Vietnamese/Asian shopping malls are places for food, “I find the construction sector in market very well.” entertainment and service experience. The Vietnam is still very conservative, “In the construction industry it is difficult objective is to create destinations that invite especially when I work with government to manage from oversea. There are a lot customers to linger” or public administrations.” of unofficial information you cannot have “Retail clients might not be asking for “It is time to think about quality. Many if you are not “on the field” sustainable materials or building practices, construction works have been done just right now, but I predict that they will do it to be done, or maybe there were such a soon, especially if they want an edge with lot of priorities more than quality, then female customers” quality of construction works was not guaranteed as it should be. High aesthetic constructions are also Nguyen Le Hoang Anh welcomed” Vu Anh Phuong Nguyen Kim holdings Hoa Binh Group “In industrial construction it is less required to go into details as in residential, yet it must be “In a construction workflow, the design functional, simple but energy- and engineering consultancy phase is saving. Finland should be good very important. Their vision and at this since I’ve heard they Antti Karjalainen “It is not easy to deal and work with Vietnamese are very green-technology evaluation play an important role in how WSP when you don’t understand the country and the oriented. Any solution to help orienting the trend and needs of the people here. Very important to understand how the factory to save energy or industry” the Vietnamese business culture and its to treat/transform energy like “Once the deal with Vingroup was done, operating mechanism is. And it may take time”. from waste to electricity for it’s getting easier, since it becomes a “They (Finnish companies) should first come and example to feed the same reference and everyone could say “If “test” the market by themselves because no one factory, should be interesting” Vingroup approves, it should be really can “feel” the market better than they do” good””. Nguyen Hoai Anh Mai Dinh Thai Chieu Nguyen Khanh Duy GT industrial Rierckermann G8A 22.1.2020 46
Next steps
Dos and Don’ts Success in Vietnamese business environment is not: Searching databases for tenders. The decision is done before the tender although it looks there is competition Having a distributor and being 1 company of the 50 others. Distributor sales is re-active unless a proper sales channel development is done, and your competitors crush you all the way. Do not assign into the KEY position of your Vietnam market entry any young freshly graduated person in Finland developing you r business. They lack the skills, business experience and especially the network which is crucial in succeeding in Vietnam. Time is money and cost saving solutions at minimum delay your market entry if not stopping it totally. You need a seasoned salesperson to work in construction industry. Only traveling 1-2 times to Vietnam for exhibitions and hoping to find business in showrooms. The real opportunities come through the network and pro-active sales, day after day. Market presence is a must, footwork essential as Finnish companies are not alone in the market, far from that. Coming to the first meeting with a prospect and hoping to close a deal. When a Vietnamese company first time meets you, they only try to decide if they can do business with you or not at all. If not, there is no technical solution which could change the balance. And like always in Asia, respect your counterpart and don’t make him loose face. 22.1.2020 48
Dos and Don’ts Success in Vietnamese business environment is: Understanding the market need. Do your homework first. If your product is not needed or not interesting, you will not sell. A product/service-related market study is always needed and can be done only off-line and in Vietnam. There is no fully reliable statistics or data, it has to be collected via interviews of stakeholders... Sometimes a localization of the product/service is essential. Understanding how the market works. In the same market study you need to get the information of how the business deals are done, who does what and who are the competitors. This is called Value Chain and if you don’t know it, you will bang your head against the wall while your competitors grab the market. Business in Vietnam is about networks and personal relations, not about superior products, although they help to create interest. Business in Vietnam is very much personal, more between people than between companies. After having all needed understanding, you need to develop your sales channel. What is the best approach for selling in Vietn am? Choices are various and these are the main approaches o selling from Finland/region (high value technical investments) o selling through local distributor/representative or o having your own Vietnamese Salesperson on the ground, building for you the network and doing the footwork (both are needed) Being ready to invest money and time, be ready for a slow start and long entry process. Success is built with determination, work and right value proposal and in Vietnam it will take more time than in developed markets. However, once relationships are created, business starts to run and expand to new customers. 22.1.2020 49
Pros and cons of major sales channel options Option 1: Direct sales from Finland/region Option 2: Distributor/representative Option 3: Outsourced sales Pros Pros Pros • Easy to arrange • Low cost solution for small companies • The most efficient solutions • Product knowledge = full • Medium capex in the beginning, low opex • Start in 3 months • Quick start • Start within 3-6 months • 100% pro-active, dedicated solution • Low capex, high opex • If pro-actively managed, can be a success • Managed by professionals • Medium cost, low opex Cons Cons • Language skills missing =need interpret • Network building, market entry very slow. • How to find the right pro-active Partner? Cons • No real prospecting possible, only for Tier 1 • You are only one of 50 other franchises • Needs daily support in the beginning prospects • Very limited sales territory/customer base • Highest capex (recruitment, training • Doesn’t spread the brand in market 22.1.2020 50
Business Finland funding options
TEMPO Towards international growth For Startups, SMEs and Midcap companies seeking to grow global ► WWW.BUSINESSFINLAND.FI/EN/TEMPO 22.1.2020 52
TEMPO Towards international growth Test your business concept Get feedback from potential customers Explore demand in a new market Learn about the customer need Develop management, ways of working and organization BUSINESS FINLAND FUNDING 75 % of the BF funding is Grant project’s max. (de minimis) overall costs 50 000 € 22.1.2020 53
MARKET EXPLORER Find out about new export markets For SMEs and Midcap companies looking for new international markets for their solutions ► WWW.BUSINESSFINLAND.FI/EN/MARKET- EXPLORER 22.1.2020 54
MARKET EXPLORER Find out about new export markets Create an internationalization plan and strategy Perform a market survey Analyze the need for localization Assess the competitive situation Draw up a list of retailers and distribution partners BUSINESS FINLAND FUNDING 50 % of the BF funding Grant project’s 5 000 – (de minimis) overall costs 10 000 € 22.1.2020 55
Appendix
Appendix: Vingroup, major property developer Trade name Vingroup Joint Stock Company • Subsidiaries (the most popular) and their success th Ranking** 6 /500 largest Vietnamese enterprises, • Vinhomes: residential real estate development (Landmark 81, Times City,…). st 1 private conglomerate • VinCommerce*: convenience stores (2,287 VinMart+), supermarkets (120 VinMart), electronics stores Type Public (242 VinPro), home (Index Living Mall) and Fashion-Sport-Shoes-Beauty stores (VinDS). E-commerce platform Adayroi.com. Industry Conglomerate (48 subsidiaries) • Vincom: shopping malls (Vincom Centre, Vincom Plaza, Vincom Mega Mall…). 70 malls in 39 cities. Created 1993 • Vincom Office: office real estate. Founder Pham Nhat vuong (Mr) • Vinpearl: luxury resorts (Vinpearl Nha Trang, Vinpearl Da Nang…). 16,700 rooms. Headquarters Vinhomes Riverside, Long Bien • Vinpearl Land: Amusement parks (Vinpearl Safari Phu Quoc). District, Hanoi, Vietnam • Vinmec: healthcare system. 7 hospitals & 4 clinics. 1,650 beds. Area served Vietnam • Vinschool: education from kindergarten to high school. 13,000 students enrolled, 29 campus. Revenue 89,392 trillion VND (2017) • VinEco: agricultural production, operating 14 farms spanning 2,000 ha of land. Net income 9,445 trillion VND (2017) • VinFast: automobile, cars and motorbike manufacturing (annual production capacity of 250,000 cars). Total assets 213,792 trillion VND (2017) • VinSmart: smartphone (partnered with BQ in Spain). # of employees 43,000 (2017) • VinID: Fintech, Loytal and Digital Marketing app services, 7 million users in 2019. Website vingroup.net • Recent investments • Australian property market: $ 22.5 million | 2016 • VinFast car factory: $3.5 billion | October 2018 • High-tech development: total charter capital of VND 390 billion on its 4 subsidiaries (VINCSS, VinConnect, HMS, Phuc An) | November 2018 (*) Vinmart and Vinmart+ from VinCommerce have just been sold to Masan Ltd 3/12/2019 (**) VNR500 Ranking - Top 500 Largest Enterprises in Vietnam in 2019, 26 th Nov 2019 (Vietnam Report) 22.1.2020 57
Appendix: Vingroup, major property developer • Vinhomes – Development and Achievements VN Residential Real Estate Market Share VN Residential Real Estate Market Share • Largest commercial real estate developer in Vietnam, (Source: CBRE) – Luxury Segment (Source: CBRE) among the leading residential property providers in Other Other the SEA countries. • Property development in 40 cities. • 17 urban area projects in Hanoi, HCMC, Hai Phong City, northern Bac Ninh Province, Thanh Hoa Province and Ha Tinh Province. • 16,000 ha land owner (~ 50% in HCMC & Hanoi). • Financial statement YTD Sep 2019: • Total consolidated net revenue: VND 37,642 billion (USD 1.62 billion). • Total profit before tax: VND 21,013 billion (USD 0.90 billion),+ 41% compared to YTD 2018. • Total assets (on 30 th Sep 2019): VND 161,662 billion (USD 6.96 billion). Expected revenue from 3 big projects (Source: KB Securities Vietnam - KBSV estimation) • Return on Investments (Mil VND) Tota l Project Revenue Revenue 2019 Revenue 2020 Revenue years a fter • YTD Sep 2019: 46,000 apartments/villas sold (VND 66,552 billion, or USD 2.87 billion) mostly from Vinhomes Ocean Park (Hanoi), Vinhomes Smart City (Hanoi), Vinhomes Grand Park (HCMC). • USD 11 billion of revenue is expected only from these 3 projects. Tota l 22.1.2020 58
Appendix: Vingroup, major property developer • Key construction partners • Typical Vinhomes “City in the city” • “Home-made” smart home devices - • Coteccons, followed by Hoa Binh Group have ecosystem Vsmart been 2 long-standing and reputable general contractors for Vingroup on several projects: • So far, the smart home market was mainly dominated by VNPT, Viettel, MobiFone, BKAV • Finished: Vinhomes Central Park (and its famous Landmark 81 tower), Vinhomes Golden River, (leader). S w imming pools Vinhomes Thang Long, Vinhomes Gardenia, Vinfast S pa, massage • Vingroup announced that after mobile factory… C inemas phones, it would begin manufacturing smart • Ongoing: Vinhomes Ocean Park, Vinhomes Smart City, Vinhomes Grand Park… devices, including smart TV, air-conditioning, Running paths P lay ground and smart fridges (Nov. 2019). • Sub-contractors (among others) • Vingroup has recently acquired many startups • Mechanical & Electrical: HVC (Vinschool Ha Long, related to the IoT, especially camera technology. Vinhomes Central Park, Vinhomes The Harmony Riverside 1, 2 Long Bien…) Searefico (Vinhomes BBQ areas S chool • In deal with Google to develop smart TVs. Golden River), Aurecon (Landmark 81 tower)… • “The Vsmart ecosystem has both hardware and • Landscape design & Consultancy: EDSA, West software as well as added-services. Vsmart will Green (Vinpearl Phu Quoc Resort & Villas, Vinpearl G y m, P ark/ build smart devices, smart apartments and smart Da Nang, Vinhomes Golden River, Vinhomes sport facilities G reen spaces cities.” - Nguyen Viet Quang, GD of Vingroup. Central Park,…) • Banking partner: Teckcombank has become Restaurants, cafes S upermarket, mall Vingroup's strategic partner with flexible P harmacy financial solution package for potential buyers. Hospital in some of Vinhomes “Cities” (Central Park HCMC, Times City Hanoi…) 22.1.2020 59
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