CLIMATE EUROPEAN STATE OF THE - Copernicus Climate Change Service
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
EUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE SUMMARY 2021
EUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 2
Report THE ARCTIC
IN 2021
ABOUT US
C3S is implemented by
sections
the European Centre for
For the Arctic as a
Medium-Range Weather
whole, 2021 saw lower
Forecasts with funding
temperatures than the
from the European Union.
previous five years.
13 21 23
ABOUT
03 THE REPORT
The ESOTC’s findings are
INTRODUCTION based on data and exper-
Welcome to the summary tise from across the C3S
of the European State of community and beyond.
the Climate 2021 (ESOTC),
from the Copernicus Climate
Change Service (C3S).
CONTACT US
16 22 24
04 05
TRENDS BEYOND
GLOBAL EUROPE IN CLIMATE THE ESOTC
CONTEXT IN 2021 INDICATORS C3S offers a range of
IN 2021 Europe saw its warmest products and tools to
summer on record and Climate Indicators show
The evolution of key climate the long-term global and explore the impacts
indicators provides the one of the most intense of climate change and
fire seasons. regional evolution of
global context for 2021. several key variables. variability.
This is an interactive document Copernicus Climate Change Service European State of the Climate 2021
The bottom toolbar and contents buttons allow you to
navigate through the different sections of the report. Cover image: The Breiðamerkurjökull glacier in Iceland. Credit: European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery.
EUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 3
INTRODUCTION
European State
of the Climate 2021
Welcome to the summary of the European State of
the Climate 2021, compiled by the Copernicus Climate
Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Image: Water turbidity of the Venice Lagoon
(ECMWF) with funding from the European Union. in November 2021.
Credit: EU, Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery.
EXPLORE THE C3S provides climate monitoring for Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse was below average for two-thirds of it,
COMPLETE ESOTC the globe, Europe and the Arctic, and gases continued to increase and are at below-average cloud cover dominated
The complete report is available online at: annually releases the European State their highest levels on record, with the and parts of northwestern and central
climate.copernicus.eu/ESOTC/2021
of the Climate (ESOTC). This includes increase in methane being particularly
Europe saw some of the lowest annual
a short overview of the global context large. Loss of glacier mass continued, average wind speeds on record. It was
Throughout the report you will find in 2021, a more comprehensive over- contributing to the ongoing rise in global also one of the most intense fire seasons
symbols that indicate the types of data view of Europe, and a focus on the sea level. in 30 years.
and the reference period used for each Arctic. The report provides a detailed
section. More information on these are analysis of the past calendar year, Globally, the last seven years were the In early spring, many parts of Europe saw
in About the report. with descriptions of climate condi- warmest on record, although 2021 was a transition from unusually warm tem-
tions and events, and explores the amongst the cooler of these. The Arctic peratures to unusually cold ones, with
Reference
associated variations in key climate has also warmed significantly since the frost-related impacts on agriculture.
period
variables from all parts of the Earth pre-industrial period, but 2021 tempera- Summer was the warmest on record and
system. The ESOTC also gives up- tures were less extreme than in recent also brought several extreme events.
Satellites In situ
dates on the long-term trends of key years. Wildfire activity in the region was Record levels of rainfall contributed to
climate indicators. the fourth highest, in terms of carbon severe flooding in western Europe. A
Reanalysis Model-based emissions, but much lower than the long-lived and intense heatwave in the
estimates
record levels of 2020. Mediterranean, combined with very dry
conditions, led to high levels of heat
For Europe, the year was just outside the stress and a situation conducive to
warmest ten on record, river discharge intense wildfires.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTC
EUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 4
420 Greenhouse gases
Global
410
400
Carbon dioxide
ppm
Atmospheric concentrations of the green-
context
390 Increase between annual averages for
380
2020 and 2021: 2.3 ppm house gases carbon dioxide and methane
continued to increase, and were their h ighest
370
in hundreds of thousands to millions of years.
in 2021
The increase in methane was particularly large.
1900
1850 Glaciers
ppb
Methane
The evolution of key climate 1800
indicators provides the global Increase between annual averages for
1750 2020 and 2021: 16.5 ppb Glaciers continued to lose mass at high
context for 2021. rates and are estimated to currently con-
2005 2010 2015 2020 tribute more than 1 mm per year to global
The global context is given by the
mean sea level rise. A reduction in glacier
Climate Indicators for which data are Monthly atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH 4). Data are derived from satellite mass was observed in many regions; how-
available for the majority of the year. measurements and averaged over the whole atmospheric column and for 60S–60N. Data source: C3S/Obs4MIPs ever, some positive mass balances were
These indicators typically build on consolidated v4.3 (2003—mid-2020) and CAMS preliminary near real-time data (mid-2020-2021) records.
also reported.
multi-source or community estimates, Credit: C3S/CAMS/University of Bremen/SRON.
leading to a delay in producing final
data records, and so not all indicators Sea ice
are covered here. Sea surface
Surface temperature
Additional information about the temperature
global climate during 2021 can be At its minimum in September, sea ice
found in the World Meteorological Globally, the last seven years were the Global mean sea surface temperature extent in the Arctic was the 12th lowest. In
Organization (WMO) statement on the warmest on record. However, in 2021 (SST) was the sixth or seventh warmest the Antarctic, at the February minimum,
State of the Global Climate in 2021. only a few regions saw temperatures since at least 1850, but La Niña sea ice extent was close to average.
more than 2°C above average, including conditions at the start and end of the
northeastern Canada and parts of year meant that it was cooler than in
find out more Greenland. The most-below-average some recent years. Sea level
temperatures over land were in western
and easternmost Siberia, Alaska,
Australia and parts of Antarctica. Data available for the first seven months
of the year show a continuing rise in global
mean sea level.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTC
EUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 5
Europe In July, above-average soil
moisture, a slow-moving low-
in 2021 pressure system, and record
precipitation across Belgium,
Germany and eastern France,
Europe saw its warmest contributed to extreme
summer on record and, in flooding.
terms of burnt area, it was
one of the most intense fire
seasons in southern Europe
in 30 years.
This section provides the 2021 view
for Europe, compared to long-term
trends of variables across the climate
system. Key events that occurred
during the year are also described
within a climatic context.
find out more
The year saw record-breaking
annual sea surface temperatures
in the Baltic Sea and eastern
Mediterranean Sea. In summer,
parts of the Baltic Sea were
more than 5°C higher
than average.
Image: Wildfire in Andalusia in
September 2021.
Credit: EU Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTC
EUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 6
°C
Temperature 2 Late spring frost
The summer temperature for Europe 1.5
There was a rapid
was the highest on record. swing from unusually
1
warm to unusually cold
0.5 temperatures.
2021 was much cooler than most recent years, but still around 0.15—0.25°C
warmer than average. The most-above-average temperatures were found around 0 Warm temperatures were seen earlier
the Black Sea, in southeastern Europe and in western Russia. Scandinavia and, to than usual in the year across many
-0.5
a lesser extent, central Europe were cooler than average. parts of Europe, with many daily
-1 maximum records broken in March.
Winter, summer and autumn were warmer than average, with summer, at 1.0°C
This warmth was also long-lived; in
above average, being the warmest on record. Spring was relatively cool, at -1.5 some areas, the daily maximum tem-
0.4—0.5°C below average.
-2
perature was at least 10°C for periods
Annual sea surface temperatures around Europe were between the sixth and of over ten days. However, just over a
eighth warmest on record. In June and July, parts of the Baltic Sea saw sea week after warm records were set, in
2021 sea surface temperature anomalies, relative to the
surface temperatures more than 5°C above average. 1991—2020 reference period. Data source: ESA CCI/C3S
early April, as cold air moved in and
SST Climate Data Record v2.1. Credit: C3S/UK MetOffice. temperatures fell to well below zero,
many cold records for the month were
1991—2020 also broken.
The warm, long-lasting temperatures
1.0 ERA5 had triggered the start of the growing
E-OBS season, meaning vegetation was at a
0.5
vulnerable stage of development. The
0.0 frost that followed resulted in major
damage to grapevine and fruit trees
°C -0.5 across an area stretching from France
to northern Greece.
-1.0
-1.5 1991—2020
-2.0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Summer (June—August) temperature anomalies over land for Europe as a whole for 1950—2021,
relative to the 1991—2020 reference period. Data source: ERA5, E-OBS. Credit: C3S/ECMWF/KNMI.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTC
EUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 7
Atmospheric Clouds and sunshine Precipitation
circulation duration The wettest conditions were in January,
igh pressure over
H Below-average cloud while March saw the driest anomalies.
the northeastern North cover dominated across
Atlantic dominated, Europe. While the year as a whole saw near-average amounts of precipitation, there was
bringing cold polar air variation between months. January was the wettest month of the year, at 0.5 to 0.7
towards western Europe. Over the last four decades, there has mm/day above average, and March was the driest month, at -0.2 to -0.4 mm/day.
been a trend towards increased sun-
The atmospheric circulation favoured shine duration. However, during 2021, In most of eastern and southeastern Europe, the number of wet days was higher than
the flow of cold polar air over western sunshine duration was close to aver- average, although smaller precipitation amounts were observed on these days. Most
Europe and Siberia, particularly during age. The largest anomalies were over of Scandinavia and areas around the Baltic Sea had fewer wet days.
the first quarter of the year. During parts of eastern Europe, where up to
The heavy rainfall in July that contributed to extreme flooding in western Europe
April to June, an area of high-pressure 300 hours more sunshine than average
made a noticeable impact on the average values of summer rainfall and soil moisture.
over western Russia was associated were recorded; much of the western
with a flow of warmer air from the Mediterranean saw as much as 250
south. Between July and September, a hours less sunshine than average. 1991—2020
strong area of high pressure over There has also been a long-term trend
northwestern Europe and its adjacent towards less cloud cover and, in 2021,
Atlantic sector coincided with a period Europe experienced 2% lower than
of exceptionally low winds in this part average cloud cover. Anomalies over mm/day %
of the continent. In the last quarter of water bodies were less pronounced 50
5
the year, winds from the northwest and slightly positive overall. 40
4
brought colder-than-average conditions. 30
3
1991—2020 2
20
1991—2020 1 10
0
0
-1 -10
-2 -20
-3 -30
-4 -40
-50
-5
Summer (June—August) 2021 precipitation anomalies (left) and
soil moisture relative anomalies (right), relative to the 1991—2020
reference period. Data source: ERA5 (left), ERA5-Land (right).
Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTC
EUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 8
Soil moisture Lake surface water River discharge
A large part of western temperature River discharge for Europe as a whole was
Europe experienced
Lakes across Europe below average for two-thirds of the year.
above-average soil
moisture during the are seeing increases
summer. in surface water In February, river discharge was above average across much of Europe. There was a
temperatures. transition to low river discharge across Europe, particularly during April, that prevailed
For the year as a whole, soil moisture throughout spring and early summer.
conditions across Europe were near av- The surface water temperature of
erage. Most months saw below-average European lakes was close to 0.3°C In northwestern Europe, river discharge in July was the highest on record. Exceptionally
soil moisture, with July having the above average for the warm season, high river flow was measured in many catchments, especially within the Meuse and
largest negative anomaly and August
from July to September. This is signifi- Rhine, in response to heavy rainfall over parts of eastern France, Belgium and Germany.
having the largest positive anomaly. cantly higher than the previous two
years, and the seventh highest since Autumn saw the return of below-average river discharge conditions across the
Below-average conditions were most the beginning of the record in 1995. majority of Europe, with exceptionally low river flow in large parts of southeastern
significant in an area of Russia to the Europe, which persisted until the end of the year.
west of the Ural Mountains, while a There were large spatial differences
broad region centred on Belgium, west- across the region. 97 of the 126 lakes in
Europe experienced positive anomalies, 1991—2020
ern Germany and the Netherlands had
above-average soil moisture condi- averaging around 0.5°C warmer than
tions. The largest positive anomaly usual; the remaining 29 lakes, mainly
occurred in eastern Spain. This con- located in northern Europe, saw nega-
trasting pattern in soil moisture tive anomalies, with an average tem-
persisted throughout the year, but was perature of around -0.3°C below usual.
most striking during summer. Warm season European lake surface
temperatures are increasing at an av-
1991—2020 erage rate of around 0.4°C per decade.
1996—2016
Monthly average river discharge
anomalies for 2021, relative to
the 1991—2020 reference period.
Rivers with drainage areas greater
than 1000 km2 are shown.
Data source: Copernicus EMS
model-derived river discharge.
Credit: Copernicus EMS/ECMWF.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTC
EUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 9
Wildfires Heat & cold stress
In terms of area burnt, During summer, southern
it was one of the most Europe saw a record
intense fire seasons in number of days with
30 years. ‘extreme heat stress’.
For Europe as a whole, fire danger con- For the summer months, the number
ditions were only slightly higher than of days with high heat stress levels is
average. However, there were regions increasing; in summer 2021, southern
that experienced extreme fire danger Europe saw a record number of days
during July and August, for example with ‘extreme heat stress’. In addition,
the Mediterranean, following persistent a much larger than average area expe-
high temperatures and drought. During rienced ‘strong’ or ‘moderate heat
the same period, over 800,000 ha stress’. The area affected by ‘strong
were burnt across the whole heat stress’ was at least twice as large
Mediterranean, making it one of the as average.
most intense fire seasons since 1991.
Regions that experienced strong heat-
Total fire emissions for 2021 were waves during summer saw unusually
lower than average in all months, high levels of heat stress; northeastern
except for July and August, when Europe in June and the Mediterranean
emissions from southern European
region in July and August.
countries dominated, as is the case in
most years. In parts of northern Europe, the number
of winter days with cold stress has
decreased over time, although in winter
2021 cold stress levels were generally
around average.
ildfire danger: 1991—2020
W
Area burnt: 2008—2020
1991—2020
Wildfire emissions: 2003—2019
Distribution and extent of burnt areas across Europe and the
Mediterranean in 2021. Each red circle represents a wildfire and
the circle size is proportional to the total burnt area of each.
Data source: European Forest Fire Information System.
Credit: EFFIS/Copernicus EMS.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTC
EUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 10
588 588
5400
0 0
Flooding in July Flooding in western Europe: July 2021
5600 5600
HOW DID IT HAPPEN?
Extreme flooding
0
0
occurred in parts of
556
556
Unusually heavy rainfall at the
Belgium, Germany and start of July causes soil
surrounding countries. saturation in parts of Belgium 5760 Precipitation totals estimate
ERA5
and Germany. 57°N
Early July saw heavy rain in parts of west-
ern Europe, with rainfall in the top one
54°N
percent of daily amounts on 13 July, Rainfall in the area is in the top
followed by the highest rainfall for the 1% of record daily amounts. 572
0
region on 14 July. The extreme rain was
5760
A slow-moving low-pressure
568
partly fed by a slow-moving area of low system carries moist air from an
10°W 10°W
0
pressure that drew water into the region unusually warm Baltic Sea.
from an u nusually warm Baltic Sea.
576
0
Soils in the region became saturated and This system encounters hills on
were unable to absorb any more water, JULY the Belgium-Germany border,
resulting in rapid runoff and river flooding. 14 releasing the most rain in a
River discharge in the Meuse and Rhine single day on record (since 20°E
1950). Data source: ERA5 Credit: C3S/ECMWF Da
0° 10°E
catchments was the highest since records 592
0
began in 1991. 5920
JULY The already saturated soil is unable
1991—2020 15 to absorb the excess water and
severe flooding ensues.
588 80 588 80
0 58 0 58
Record levels reached
River discharge in places in the
Meuse and Rhine catchments
reaches a historical maximum
since records began in 1991.
Historical maximum
5880 588 5880 588
0 0
58 58
80 80
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 11
Mediterranean Mediterranean summer extremes: 2021
summer extremes Many parts of the Mediterranean
were hit by an intense and
The region saw a long Mid
long-lasting heatwave in
JULY July and August 2021.
heatwave, widespread
drought conditions and
numerous wildfires. A provisional temperature record
During July and August, the Mediterranean for Europe, of 48.8°C , was set in
experienced a heatwave that brought Sicily. A provisional national record
was set in southern Spain.
unusually high temperatures. Numerous
temperature records were broken, includ- In parts of Italy, Greece and Turkey,
ing a provisional temperature record for the heatwave lasted for as long
Europe, set in Sicily, at 48.8°C. In parts of as two to three weeks.
Italy, Greece and Turkey, the heatwave
lasted for around two to three weeks, and
even longer in the southern Mediterranean. Italy, Greece and the Balkans
experienced significant droughts
Large parts of the central Mediterranean throughout the summer.
region saw droughts and lower-than-average
soil moisture throughout the summer,
with conditions among the driest relative
to the reference period. Parts of Italy, Spain, Greece and
the Balkans experienced ‘very
The widespread hot and dry conditions strong heat stress’ during
were conducive to numerous wildfires, in the summer months.
particular in Italy, Greece and Turkey.
The hot and dry conditions were
conducive to numerous large
wildfires, particularly in Italy,
oil moisture: 1991—2020
S Greece and Turkey.
Drought: 1981—2020
Wildfire emissions: 2003—2019 Mid The total area burnt during July and
AUGUST
August exceeded 800,000
hectares.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCAnnual mean
EUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 12
Low winds Renewable Energy: Wind
In 2021, parts of northwestern and
Parts of northwestern and central Europe experienced unusually
central Europe saw some of low annual average wind speeds.
the lowest annual average
Some countries saw their lowest
wind speeds on record.
annual average wind speeds since at
In Europe, the past decade has seen a least 1979.
steady increase in wind power generation
capacity as well as in the share of energy Lower wind speeds led to reduced
consumption met through this source. As wind power generation in parts
a result, low winds can have increasingly of Europe.
important socio-economic implications.
-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12
% of 1991-2020 mean
During the year, parts of northwestern Wind speeds in Europe can vary
and central Europe experienced much significantly. Data: ERA5
Reference period: 1991-2020
below-average wind speeds; large parts Credit: C3S/ECMWF
of the countries affected saw the lowest
or second-lowest annual average wind Understanding this variability is
speeds on record. The largest negative crucial when planning renewable
anomalies were over the UK and Ireland, energy infrastructure.
and the adjacent region of the Atlantic
Ocean, during July to September.
The lower wind speeds led to a reduction
Copernicus Climate Change Service
in the potential for wind power genera- data support a deeper understanding
tion in northwestern and central of wind variability…
European countries.
1991—2020
… contributing to Europe’s energy
transition and its plans to become
the world’s first climate-neutral
continent.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 13
The Arctic The period from January to
March was unusually cold
in 2021 over Arctic Eurasia, in contrast
with the record warmth
observed in early 2020.
For the Arctic as a whole, 2021
saw lower temperatures than
the previous five years, but
was still 0.4°C above average.
The Arctic section provides an over-
view of key climate events in high
northern latitudes during 2021.
find out more
Sea ice concentrations during
summer and autumn were
much-below-average in the
Greenland Sea, reaching
record-low values
in September.
Image: Sea ice in the Greenland Sea,
at a record low in September 2021.
Credit: EU Copernicus Sentinel-1 imagery.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 14
Temperature Wildfires
There were widely round 16 million tonnes
A
contrasting conditions of carbon were released;
across the region. the fourth-highest
amount on record.
The Arctic as a whole was markedly
colder than the previous five years, Wildfire activity in the Arctic was high,
with a surface temperature anomaly but much lower than the record levels
of 0.4°C above average. The period of 2020. The most intense wildfire ac-
from January to March was particular- tivity was in eastern Siberia. The loca-
ly cold over Arctic Eurasia, in contrast tions of the fires generally coincided
with the record warmth observed in with drier-than-average soils, which
early 2020. make the overlying vegetation more
vulnerable to burning. During summer,
Conversely, much-above-average tem- smoke from sub-Arctic fires formed
peratures over Greenland in July and plumes stretching over several thou-
August led to three large-scale melt sands of kilometres, reaching as far as
events, and rainfall was measured at the North Pole and ultimately spread-
the summit of the Greenland Ice Sheet. ing over a large swath of the Arctic.
A warmer-than-average Greenland Wildfire emissions from across the
Sea and colder-than-average Chukchi Arctic reached an estimated total of 16
and Beaufort Seas reflected contrast- million tonnes of carbon; the fourth
ing sea ice conditions between these highest amount in a record that goes
two sectors of the Arctic Ocean. back to 2003.
1991—2020 1991—2020
0.1 1 10
Optical depth
Model forecast of organic matter optical depth at
550 nm for 12 UTC on 5 August 2021, showing the
transport of smoke released by wildfires in eastern Siberia.
Data source: CAMS Atmospheric Composition Forecasts.
Credit: CAMS/C3S/ECMWF.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 15
Sea ice Low sea ice extent in
Arctic sea ice extent saw the Greenland Sea
its largest annual mini-
mum since 2014. ea ice extent in the
S
Greenland Sea reached
During the second half of the year, record-low values in
Arctic sea ice extent remained well September 2021.
above the low values seen in 2012 and
2020. At its annual minimum in The first half of the year saw
September, the monthly sea ice extent close-to-average sea ice extent in the
in the Arctic was 8% below average; Greenland Sea. In June, high concen-
the 12th lowest value in the satellite trations of chlorophyll-a, indicating
data record since 1979 and the highest phytoplankton blooms, occurred along
value since 2014. the sea ice edge. Then, during July and
August, sustained southerly winds
Regional sea ice concentration anoma- along Greenland’s eastern coast,
lies during summer and autumn were together with reduced sea ice drift into
marked by much-below-average con- the Greenland Sea from the central
centrations in the Greenland Sea and Arctic Ocean, led to the sea ice edge
much-above-average concentrations in retreating northwards. Concurrently,
the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. sea surface temperatures were much
above average in the same region.
1991—2020 This combination of factors contributed
to a rapid drop in sea ice extent, leaving
Ice edge May 2021 Ice edge May 2021
most of Greenland’s eastern coast ice- Ice edge June 2021 Ice edge June 2021
free by the end of the summer. The
September sea ice extent was 72%
below average, the lowest value in the
Chl-a concentration (mg/m3) Chl-a concentration anomaly (%)
data record.
(Left) Monthly mean chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration and
(right) concentration anomaly in the Greenland Sea for June
2021. The anomaly is expressed as a percentage of the
1991—2020 1997—2020 average. Data source: C3S Ocean Colour CDR/
ICDR v5; C3S Sea Ice Edge v2. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
Ocean colour: 1997—2020
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 16
Trends
in climate
indicators
Climate Indicators show
the long-term evolution of
several key variables which
are used to assess the global
and regional trends of a
changing climate. These also
provide the wider context in
which to read the report.
find out more
Image: The Aletsch Glacier
in Switzerland.
Credit: EU Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 17
Compared to 1991—2020,
INCREASING Temperature Sea surface an increase in SST of around
TEMPERATURES The latest five-year temperature Globe
OVER LAND AND average global tem-
perature is almost the Global mean sea sur- +0.2°C
OCEANS highest on record.
Over the past 45 years,
face temperature (SST)
has seen a large increase,
of around 0.6°C, over the Europe
temperatures over land
have risen about twice as fast as those last four decades. The main modulator of
global SST variability on the inter-annual
+0.2 to +0.3°C
The Paris Agreement aims to over ocean, while the Arctic has warmed
hold the increase in global by approximately 2.5°C over land and timescale is the El Niño Southern
(For five-year averages)
average temperature to well
3°C over land and sea combined. Oscillation. These periods of warmer- or
below 2°C above pre-industrial Changes prior to this are more uncertain, cooler-than-average SSTs in the eastern
equatorial Pacific influence surface air Three (globe) / four (Europe)
levels, with countries pursuing particularly for the Arctic. SST datasets covering
efforts to limit the increase to temperature over land as well as sea. 1991—2021
1.5°C. The Global Stocktake, The last ten years have seen both a
Since 1850—1900, an increase in strong El Niño (warmer SSTs) and several
currently underway and to be surface air temperature of around
repeated every five years, facil- La Niña (cooler SSTs) events.
itates the assessment of collective Globe
progress in the implementation of Increase above 1850-1900
the Paris Agreement. Monitoring +1.2°C Relative to 1991-2020 reference level
1.5
surface air and sea surface 0.5 ERA5 GISTEMPv4 NOAAGlobalTempv5
temperatures (SST) globally Europe JRA-55 HadCRUT5 Berkely Earth
and regionally contributes to 1
this stocktake. Global average +2.2°C 0
values for these variables have 0.5
increased significantly since Arctic -0.5
the pre-industrial era, by 1.1-
1.2°C and 0.9°C, respectively, +3°C -1
0
but the rate of increase has
varied in both space and time. (For five-year averages) -0.5
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Six temperature datasets covering Global sixty-month average surface temperature (°C).
all or parts of 1850—2021. Values
Six temperature datasets covering all or parts of
for Europe are over land only.
1850—2021. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 18
GREENHOUSE Greenhouse gas Greenhouse gas
Since the beginning of the
respective data records, an
GASES DRIVING concentrations fluxes increase in net fluxes of
greenhouse gases at Earth’s
CLIMATE CHANGE The amount of a The net difference surface of around
gas contained in between the amount
a certain volume of a gas added to CO2
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the
of air. the atmosphere by
emissions from
+5000 TgC
atmosphere trap heat in the The atmospheric
various ‘sources’ and the
lower atmosphere. If their concentrations of CO2 and CH4 CH4
amount taken up by various ‘sinks’.
levels increase, then Earth’s continue to increase.
near-surface temperature also Estimated net surface fluxes of CO2, +420 TgC
rises, with significant global CH4 and N2O have been increasing
Since 2010, an increase in
impacts. Human activities lead during recent decades. Anthropogenic N2O
atmospheric concentrations of
to the emission of GHGs in emissions of CO2 have been partly
greenhouse gases of around
various ways, including the
compensated by a natural uptake from +18 TgN
combustion of fossil fuels for the ocean and vegetation.
energy, deforestation, the use
CO2
(Per year)
of fertilisers in agriculture, live-
stock farming, and the decom-
+2.4 ppm
position of organic material in CO2: 1979—2019
landfills. Of all the long-lived CH4 CH 4: 1990—2019
N2O: 1996—2018
GHGs that are emitted by
human activities, carbon d ioxide
+8.6 ppb
(CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous
(Per year)
oxide (N2O) have the largest
impact on Earth’s climate.
Concentrations (column-
averaged mixing ratios) for CO2
and CH 4 covering 2003—2021
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 19
THE CRYOSPHERE Sea ice Glaciers Ice sheets
IN A CHANGING Arctic sea ice extent Both globally and in Between 1992 and
CLIMATE has declined mark-
edly since records
Europe, glaciers have
seen a substantial and
2020, losses from
the Greenland and
began. The decline prolonged loss of ice Antarctic Ice Sheets
has been largest around mass since the mid 19th century. have caused global sea
The cryosphere encompasses the annual minimum in September, During the 20th century, the rate of levels to rise by around 2 cm. The com-
all parts of the Earth system with widespread retreat across the loss was relatively low and there have bined rate of ice loss has risen by a
where water is in solid form, Arctic. Parallel to the decline in Arctic been intermittent periods of mass gain. factor of 3.5 over three decades, from
including ice sheets, glaciers, sea ice extent, the proportion of multi- The loss has intensified since around 105 Gt per year between 1992 and
snow cover, permafrost and sea year ice has decreased while the pro- the 1990s, with, for example, glaciers 1996 to 372 Gt per year between
ice. The cryosphere exerts an portion of first-year ice has increased. in Europe having lost between 9 m and 2016 and 2020.
important influence on Earth’s In the Antarctic, sea ice extent shows 30 m of ice thickness, depending on
climate, and vice versa. Due to no clear long-term trend. the region, since 1997.
its high reflectivity, changes in Between 1992 and 2020,
the cryosphere impact the a loss in ice sheet mass of around
amount of solar energy taken
up by the planet’s surface, During 1979—2021, a reduction in A loss in glacier ice thickness Greenland
and consequently tempera- sea ice extent around of around
tures. As temperatures rise, -4890 ±460 Gt
vast amounts of water stored Arctic, March Globe since 1957
on land, in glaciers and ice Antarctica
sheets, melt, which contributes -2.6% -32m
to global sea level rise. The -2670 ±530 Gt
changing cryosphere therefore Arctic, September Europe since 1960s
has many further environmen-
tal and societal implications. -13.4% -4m to -35m Satellite
data from 14 missions
Southwestern Scandinavia covering 1992—2020
and the Alps, respectively
Antarctic
No change eference glacier network
R
of more than 30 years of
(Per year) ongoing observations
Sea ice data record covering
* 1 gigatonne (Gt) = 1 000 000 000 tonnes
1979—2021
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 20
Between 1993 and 2021,
Sea level a mean sea level increase of
around
Between 1993 and
2021, there has been a Globe
rise in global mean sea
level of around 9 cm. +3.2mm ±0.4mm
Regional trends can deviate
considerably from the global mean. For ex- Europe
ample, across Europe, sea level changes
differ between the open ocean and coastal +2 to +4 mm
areas due to various geophysical processes.
(Per year)
Sea level data record covering
January 1993 to July 2021
mm/year
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mean sea level trend
-1 from January 1993—
July 2021.
-2 Data source: CMEMS
Ocean Monitoring
-3 Indicator based on the
C3S sea level product.
-4 Credit: C3S/ECMWF/CLS. Image: Archipelago Sea, Finland.
Credit: EU, Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 21
About the report THE DATA BEHIND THE ESOTC 2021 AND THE CLIMATE INDICATORS
Climate Indicators provide the long-term The ESOTC 2021 sections rely more
context for the globe, Europe and the extensively on the datasets provided oper-
Arctic, and build on datasets and esti- ationally and in near real-time by the
mates that are brought together to provide Copernicus Services, to give an overview
a comprehensive multi-source reference, of 2021 in the long-term context. The
based on data from Copernicus and from operational data are freely accessible via
CONTRIBUTORS other monitoring activities. Where data do data catalogues such as the C3S Climate
The ESOTC’s findings are based on ex- European national and regional not yet fully cover the reporting period, the Data Store (CDS). These operational data
pertise from across the C3S c ommunity, meteorological and hydrological most up to date information is included. services build on extensive research and
as well as other Copernicus services and services: DMI (Denmark), DWD development undertaken by institutions
external partners. The s ections are au- (Germany), KNMI (Netherlands), MET across Europe and the rest of the world.
thored by the data providers from insti- Norway, Météo-France, Met Office
tutions across Europe and edited by the (United Kingdom), and indirect
C3S team. This report is reviewed by col- Reference periods
contributions from many others.
leagues across the Copernicus network. By comparing 2021 against the average for a reference period, we can see
Universities and research how the year fits within a longer-term context. Generally, the reference period
The EU Copernicus services: organisations: AWI (Germany), used is 1991—2020, but where less extensive data records are available, more
C3S, CAMS, Copernicus EMS, CMEMS, CLMS. University of Bremen (Germany), recent and shorter periods are used as indicated by this symbol.
CEA/LSCE (France), CLS (France),
International organisations and
CzechGlobe/GCRI (Czechia), JAXA
initiatives: ECMWF, EC JRC, EEA, ESA, Satellites Reanalysis
(Japan), University of Leeds (United
EUMETSAT SAF Network, GCOS and WMO Providing information about Using a combination of
Kingdom), LEGOS (France), University
RA VI RCC Network. Earth’s surface and its atmos- observations and computer
of Leicester (United Kingdom), NASA
(USA), NILU (Norway), NIES (Japan), phere from spaceborne sensors. models to recreate historical
PML (United Kingdom), SRON climate conditions.
(Netherlands), University of Reading
(United Kingdom), University of Zurich In situ
(Switzerland), TNO (Netherlands), Model-based estimates
Measurements from an instru-
TU Wien (Austria), VanderSat ment located at the point of Using the laws of physics and
(Netherlands), VU Amsterdam interest, such as a land station, statistics to build large-scale
(Netherlands), WEMC (United Kingdom), at sea or in an aeroplane. models of environmental
WGMS (Switzerland). indicators.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 22
BEYOND THE ESOTC Could exceptionally low winds
Could a rapid change of
temperatures in spring
Data for assessing have had an impact on the
energy sector?
have had an impact on the
agriculture industry?
climate impacts
C3S offers a range of products and tools to explore the
impacts of climate change and variability.
The ESOTC provides monitoring of the C3S investigates how these sectors
Impacts of wind variations on Potential future impacts of
past year, based on data available from respond to changes in climate variables
the Copernicus Services and other agen- by looking at, for example, extreme the productivity of wind farms cold temperatures on Crops
cies. C3S extends this offer by providing values, frequency of certain events, or Information on wind speeds, which An early period of warm spring
societal sector-focused services that cumulative climate conditions over long directly impact energy production days, which promote crop growth,
deliver data, tools and example work-
periods. The data, tools and example from wind farms, as well as related followed by sub-zero tempera-
flows to support public and private workflows are provided for the past data, such as variations in the asso- tures, bringing frosts, can affect
stakeholders in their climate-sensitive and the present, as well as for the ciated potential energy production, is cropping cycles and seasonal
decisions and solutions. This service future; the last based on a range of part of the offer of the C3S energy farming. Information on the date
helps identify the impacts of climate climate projections. service. The ‘low winds’ section of of last spring frost and the number
change and variability on vulnerable sec- the ESOTC illustrates these data by of frost days, from historical data
tors, such as infrastructure, agriculture, exploring wind speed and potential and their projected change under
food security, water, energy, tourism, impacts on production across Europe. different climate scenarios, will be
health and financial services. available from C3S. An interactive
application is being designed that
will allow users to explore relevant
agroclimatic indicators across
Europe for the past decades and
their possible evolution. The ‘late
spring frost’ section of the ESOTC
provides an example of the impact
of temperature changes on
agriculture across Europe.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021 23
About us
COPERNICUS SERVICES IMPLEMENTED BY ECMWF
Vital environmental information The Copernicus Climate Change
for a changing world Service (C3S)
The European Centre for Medium-Range The Copernicus Climate Change Service
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been adds value to environmental measure-
entrusted by the European Commission to ments and provides free access to
implement two of the six services of the quality-assured, traceable data and
Copernicus programme: the Copernicus applications, all day, every day. We offer
Climate Change Service (C3S) and the consistent information on the climate
Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service anywhere in the world, and support
(CAMS). In addition, ECMWF provides sup- policymakers, businesses and citizens in
port to the Copernicus Emergency preparing for future climate change impacts.
Management Service (Copernicus EMS).
The Copernicus Atmosphere
To meet the challenge of global climate Monitoring Service (CAMS)
change, accurate, reliable and timely data
are key. The Copernicus Services at The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring
ECMWF routinely monitor data on a global Service adds value to air quality and at-
scale, including surface air temperature, mospheric composition measurements,
precipitation, sea ice area and atmospheric and provides free, consistent and
greenhouse gases. quality-controlled information related to
air pollution and health, solar energy,
greenhouse gases and climate forcing,
everywhere in the world.
https://doi.org/10.21957/9d7g-hn83
Image: Wind farm, North Sea.
Credit: EU, Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCEUROPEAN STATE OF THE CLIMATE - SUMMARY 2021
Find out more
Web Help and support
climate.copernicus.eu climate.copernicus.eu/help-and-support
copernicus.eu
Copernicus communication
ecmwf.int copernicus-communication@ecmwf.int
Twitter Media enquiries
@CopernicusECMWF copernicus-press@ecmwf.int
@CopernicusEU
@ECMWF
LinkedIn
company/copernicus-ecmwf
Facebook
@ECMWFcopernicus
Instagram
European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather @copernicusecmwf
Forecasts
#ESOTC
Reading, UK
Bologna, Italy
Bonn, Germany Image: Cloud-free Europe
from Sentinel-3.
Credit: Modified EU Copernicus
Sentinel data (2017), processed
by Sinergise/ESA.
GLOBAL CONTEXT EUROPE THE ARCTIC TRENDS IN ABOUT BEYOND
INTRODUCTION ABOUT US CONTACT
IN 2021 IN 2021 IN 2021 CLIMATE INDICATORS THE REPORT THE ESOTCYou can also read
