CBRE FORUM 2019 - CBRE Vietnam
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CBRE FORUM 2019
VIETNAM
HO CHI MINH CITY
Thursday, 11 July, 2019
CONTENT
VIETNAM RETAIL
HCMC OFFICE
HCMC CONDOMINIUM
1 THE CHANGING
FACE OF RETAIL
“THE CONSUMER ISN’T SPENDING…”
VIETNAM RETAIL
VIETNAM RETAIL SALES IS SAYING OTHERWISE
220 7.6%
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
2018F
2019F
2011
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Retail Sales Index (2010=100), at Constant Prices,
Source: Oxford Economics.
VIETNAM RETAIL
CONSUMER SENTIMENT REMAINS STRONG
Consumer Confidence Index
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Philippines Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Singapore Global
Q1 2018 Q1 2019
Source: The Nielsen Company.
VIETNAM RETAIL
SPENDING POWER IMPROVES
Rising affluence levels in Vietnam
$3,000
$2,500
US$ per person
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP Per Capita (nominal) Personal Disposable Income
Source: Oxford Economics.
VIETNAM RETAIL
THE TOURISTS ARE COMING AND SPENDING TOO
Strong growth in the tourism market
18 18
16 16
14 14
12 12
US$ billions
10 10
Millions
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Tourism Arrivals Tourism Receipts
Source: CEIC, Vietnam National Administration of Tourism.
VIETNAM RETAIL
NEW BRANDS ENTRANTS
Mostly from Asia Pacific
6M 2019, HCMC 6M 2019, Hanoi
F&B
Fashion
Others
VIETNAM RETAIL
FAST FASHION BRANDS STILL LIMITED
Singapore Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand Vietnam THE RISE OF APAC APPAREL
RETAILERS
H&M 9 35 38 27 19 4
Inditex 21 19 18 46 23 5
UNIQLO 24 47 54 19 40 -
36 95 99 63 33
Source: Euromonitor International, Q4 2018.VIETNAM RETAIL
PIPELINE TO TAPER OFF AFTER 2019
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
NLA (sqm)
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Singapore Bangkok Ho Chi Minh City Hanoi
Source: CBRE Research.
Note: Citywide and Island wide
Jakarta: no data for 2021.VIETNAM RETAIL
MODERN RETAIL SPREADING ACROSS VIETNAM
Retail Supply – Net Leasable Area Presence in 38/63
provinces Hanoi
1.05
0.93
Presence in 9/63
provinces
Million sq.m
Presence in 4/63
0.08 provinces
0.07 0.06 0.06
0.01
HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Nha Trang Hai Phong Long An Presence in 3/63
provinces HCMC
#57 projects #44 projects #8 projects #5 projects #7 projects #4 projects #2 projects
Note: NLA excludes standalone supermarkets, convenience stores
Source: CBRE Research. Presence in 20/63
provincesVIETNAM RETAIL
PRIME RENTS IN VIETNAM RANKED THIRD IN REGION
(US$/sq. m./month)
Rents
$514
$394
$250 $210
$113 $104
Singapore Kuala Lumpur Ho Chi Minh Hanoi Jakarta Bangkok
Ion Orchard Suria KLCC Hotel arcades Sofitel Legend Plaza The
High Street Metropole Indonesia EmQuartier
Source: CBRE Research.
Rent includes serviced charge, excludes VAT.VIETNAM RETAIL
RENTAL RATE CYCLE
Jakarta
Ho Chi Minh City
Hanoi
Singapore Bangkok
Kuala Lumpur
Decline Accelerating Decline Slowing Growth Accelerating Growth Slowing
Source: CBRE Research.SO WHY ALL THE CONCERN?
THE WORKPLACE
MARRIAGE
THE HOUSING MARKET
POPULATION GROWTH
KALE
MILLENNIALS AVOCADO
ARE CHANGING WORK ETHIC
EVERYTHING
HOTELS
CHAIN RESTAURANTS
THE INTERNET
CROWDFUNDING
THE MOVIE BUSINESSVIETNAM RETAIL
THE MILLENNIALS
• Still believe in marriage and mortgages
• Supports the sharing economy
• Heavily indebted, but stand to inherit
an estimated $30tn over the next 30
years
• Distinct shopping patterns and
preferences
• Convenience is key
• Digitally engaged
• Amenities and experiencesVIETNAM RETAIL
GROWTH OF VIETNAM’S E-COMMERCE
Vietnam’s E-commerce Market Size
(GMV, US$ Billions)
16 CAGR 43% 15
14
CAGR 43%
12
10
8
6
4 CAGR 87% 3
2
0
0
2015 2018 2025
Source: e-Conomy SEA 2018 Report by Google & Temasek.
Note: GMV stands for Gross Merchandise Value.
Note: Retail value excl. Sales tax include sales of motor vehicles.VIETNAM RETAIL
LET’S GET CONNECTED
160
140
Per 100 people
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Internet Users Mobile Phones
Source: Oxford Economics.VIETNAM RETAIL
LOW CREDIT CARD PENETRATION
Vietnam Still Emphasizes on Cash On Delivery
100
90
80
% of Population
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Singapore
Bank Account Credit Card Debit Card Cash on Delivery
Source: Standard Chartered Bank.VIETNAM RETAIL
SUCCESS STORIES AND THE NOT
1
Source: VnExpress
OUTPERFORM 2
STRUGGLE
F A S T F A S H I O N
Vibrant entertainment
T E C H N O L O G Y
Cozy family focusedI S E - C O M M E R C E TA K I N G O V E R B R I C K - A N D - M O R TA R … … O R I S I T T H E OT H E R W AY AROUND?
W H AT I S T R E N D I N G ?
Social Media
Placemaking Delivery Consumer Behaviour
Tenant Mix
Influencers F&B
Payment Experiential
Omnichannel
Transaction
Tourism Pop Up Stores
Brick & Mortar
Online Touch & Feel E-commerce Sales Discounts
Instant Gratification
Technology Brands Wellness “On The Go”
Sustainability EntertainmentVIETNAM RETAIL
RATIONALISATION OF ONLINE SALES GROWTH
Sales growth ONLINE SALES GROWTH
60% CAGR 2013 - 2018
50%
40%
Online sales
30% 116% 51% 2.0% 2.0%
F&B Consumer Beauty & Consumer
20% Appliances Personal Electronics
Offline sales care
10%
0%
2016 2017 2018 2019
38% 37% 31% 29%
Home Care Apparel & Pet care Consumer
Footwear Health
Source: Euromonitor.VIETNAM RETAIL
CONVERGENCE OF ONLINE AND OFFLINE RETAIL
Source: VIR
Source: lowyat.net
Source: VIR 16/06 Non-Cash day
Source: Tuoitre NewsVIETNAM RETAIL
TECHNOLOGY: FRIEND OR FOE?
AUGMENTED
INTERNET VIRTUAL REALITY REALITY
OF THINGS
AUTOMATION ROBOTICS BLOCKCHAIN LOGISTICS
ARTIFICIAL PREDICTIVE
3D PRINTING
INTELLIGENCE ANALYTICSVIETNAM RETAIL
TECHNOLOGY WILL SHAPE THE FUTURE
Customization to Physical point of
become the new transaction will
loyalty shrink
The sharing What, where and
economy to be a how you want is
commonplace the normVIETNAM RETAIL
TECHNOLOGY WILL SHAPE THE FUTURE
Focus on Building brand
customer ambassadors and
emotions & product experts
experience
The power of Focus on robotics
prediction and automation2 HCMC OFFICE
HCMC OFFICE
Q2 2019 MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moderate rental growth for both Grade A & B
Grade A Grade B
EXISTING 382,763 sq. m. NLA No new 842,855 sq. m. NLA
15 projects supply
SUPPLY 63 projects NLA (sq. m.)
ASKING 0.9% q-o-q
US$46.7 US$23.5 0.3% q-o-q
RENT 2.9% y-o-y US$/sq.m./
4.7% y-o-y
month
VACANCY 0 ppts q-o-q 0.3 ppts q-o-q
2.6% 3.4%
RATE 2.0 ppts y-o-y 0.5 ppts y-o-y (%)
Asking rent on NLA, exclusive of VAT and service charge.
Source: CBRE Research.CONSTRUCTION HAS SLOWED DOWN FOR SOME BUILDINGS
HCMC OFFICE
CONSTRUCTION HAS SLOWED DOWN FOR SOME OFFICES IN THE CENTRAL AREA
Led to the increase of short-term renewal transactions
Major Transactions, Tenants by Leasing Purpose Received By CBRE
Renewal 0%
5%
24%
8%
38%
33% 54%
38%
Q2 2018 Q2 2019
Relocation Expansion New Letting Renewal Expansion Relocation Renewal New Letting
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC OFFICE
WHILE MOST OF FRINGE-CBD & DECENTRALIZED BUILDINGS
Were still under good construction progress
Some Projects That Are Under Good Construction and Ready To Launch In 2019 & 2020
ETOWN 5 - Tan Binh VIETTEL TOWER B - D.10 LIM 3 - D.1 SONATUS - D.1 FRIENDSHIP - D.1 PHU MY HUNG TOWER –D.7
NLA: 11,000 sq. m. NLA: 17,600 sq. m. NLA: 35,500 sq. m. NLA: 33,700 sq. m. NLA : 13,700 sq. m. NLA : 25,600 sq. m.
REE Corporation Viettel R.E JSC Hoa Lam Group Hoang Thanh JSC DCZ Slovakia Phu My Hung Corporation
Source: CBRE Research.LANDLORDS FACING STIFF COMPETITION FROM UPCOMING PROJECTS
HCMC OFFICE
MODERATE RENTAL GROWTH WAS OBSERVED
For both grades
Asking Rents of Both Grades
$60
$50
(US$/sq. m./month)
$40
Asking Rent
Wider gap:
$30
US$15 psm US$23 psm
$20
$10
$0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 2019F
Grade A - Asking Rents Grade B - Asking Rents
Asking rent on NLA, exclusive of VAT and service charge.
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC OFFICE
LANDLORDS UPGRADED FACILITIES AT SOME BUILDINGS
To retain clients & align their rents with the market trend
Facilities That Have Been Frequently Upgraded Office Buildings That Have Upgraded Facilities
Restroom Centec Tower A&B Tower
Entrance Elevator system Melinh Point Tower Metropolitan TowerTENANTS ARE ACTIVELY SEEKING NEW OFFICE SPACES
INTERNATIONAL MANUFACTURING & LOGISTICS COMPANIES SOUGHT SPACES FOR RELOCATING FROM CHINA TO VIETNAM
HCMC OFFICE
NEW LETTING INQUIRIES RECEIVED BY CBRE
Have increased by 21 ppts y-o-y
Tenants By Leasing Purpose, Leasing Inquiries Tenants By Industry, Leasing Inquiries
Received by CBRE Vietnam Q2 2019 Received By CBRE Vietnam Q2 2019
4% 4%
Manufacturing
24% 27%
Information Technology
Relocation
29% Retail/Trade
New Letting
12% Services
Expansion 63% 15% Banking/Finance
Renewal
6% Logistics & Tranportations
3% 12%
Others
Source: CBRE Research.
Almost 40% of new letting inquiries are from Manufacturing & Logistics Companies,
and 50% of those have their offices placed in CHINAHCMC OFFICE
TECH FIRMS ALSO ABSORBED LARGE LEASING SPACES
DXC VNG Gameloft
Office: Etown 5 Office: Tan Thuan Industrial Park, Office: Pax Sky Ung Van Khiem
NLA: 8,000 sq. m. District 7 NLA: 3,300 sq. m.
Source: CBRE Research.FLEXIBLE WORKSPACE
HCMC OFFICE
FLEXIBLE WORKSPACE PENETRATION
Rising rapidly
Flexible Workspace, Accumulated Supply, Q2 2019 Flexible Workspace, Penetration Rate
50,000
2% Flexible Workspace
40,000 5%
Traditional Office
GFA (sq. m.)
30,000
20,000
10,000
98% 95%
0
2016 2017 2018 Q1 Q2
2019 2019 Penetration rate of flexible workspace as of Q2 2019
Source: CBRE Research.
was 2% and is expected to increase up to 5%
by the end of this yearHCMC OFFICE
FROM EXPANSION TO EFFICIENCY
Flex operators re-define strategy in 2019
FASTEST
GROWTH FLEXI RE-DEFINE EXPANSION STRATEGY
MARKETS IN 2018
Bangkok
(>80% yoy) APAC Mumbai HCMC Delhi NCR Seoul
TOP 10 FLEX SPACE MARKETS IN APAC
Creative Productivity
Increasing Customizing Partnerships Multiple Source
Shanghai Beijing Shenzhen Bangalore Seoul Occupancy Rate Enterprise Solutions of Income
with Landlords
TOTAL SIZE
9.1 mil sq.ft 6.5 mil sq.ft 6.1 mil sq.ft 5.5 mil sq.ft 3.9 mil sq.ft
TARGET EXPANSION PROPERTY TYPE IN 2019
PENETRATION RATIO* (% of Flexible Space as Total Office Stock)
6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 3.5% 3.9%
Mumbai Delhi Ncr Tokyo Singapore Hong Kong
Shopping mall/ Standalone Building on
TOTAL SIZE
Quality Office Office podium in major street with opportunity
in Core Area major submarkets for renovation
3.7 mil sq.ft 3.7 mil sq.ft 3.7 mil sq.ft 2.8 mil sq.ft 2.4 mil sq.ft
PENETRATION RATIO* (% of Flexible Space as Total Office Stock)
3.0% 4.0% 1.4% 4.6% 3.0% CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH | This infographic was prepared by CBRE China Research Source: CBRE Research, Q12019
Team which forms part of CBRE Global Research -a network of preeminent Note: Above figures are Top 6 industries, which probably
researchers who collaborate to provide real estate market research and econometric results in the summation not equal to 100%.
forecasting to real estate.HCMC OFFICE
FLEXIBLE WORKSPACE CONTINUE TO EXPAND
New flexible workspaces in Q2 2019 And many more coming by the end of 2019
Lim 1 Tower
Landmark 81 Phu My Hung
Five Star Tower, D.1
Saigon Pearl
Deutsches Haus
Phu My Hung Dien Bien Phu, D.3
Source: CBRE Research.
Huynh Khuong Ninh Tracking dates: June 14th,2019.HCMC OFFICE
FUTURE SUPPLY FORECAST
Delay in construction
Grade A - New Supply Forecast Grade B - New Supply Forecast
120,000 120,000
100,000 100,000
NLA (sq.m.)
80,000
NLA (sq.m.)
80,000
60,000 60,000
40,000 40,000
20,000 20,000
0 -
2019F 2020F 2021F 2019F 2020F 2021F
New Supply Grade A - old forecast New Supply Grade B - old forecast
New Supply Grade A - revised forecast New supply Grade B - revised forecast
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC OFFICE
GRADE A PERFORMANCE FORECAST
Rentals growth to be sluggish with higher vacancy rate
Grade A – Rental Rate Forecast Grade A – Vacancy Forecast
$60 Revised forecast 25%
$50 20%
Revised forecast
(US$/sq.m./month)
Vacancy rate
$40
Asking rents
15%
$30
10%
$20
5%
$10
$- 0%
2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
Asking rent on NLA, exclusive of VAT and service charge.
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC OFFICE
GRADE B PERFORMANCE FORECAST
Postponement of some grade B offices eased pressure on existing buildings
Grade B – Rental Rate Forecast Grade B – Vacancy Forecast
$30 Revised forecast 9%
8% Revised forecast
$25
(US$/sq. m./month)
7%
$20 6%
Vacancy rate
Asking Rent
5%
$15
4%
$10 3%
2%
$5
1%
$- 0%
2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
Asking rent on NLA, exclusive of VAT and service charge.
Source: CBRE Research.WHAT DO WE EXPECT IN THE FUTURE?
THU THIEM BRIDGE 2 GIVE
BOOST TO OFFICE SUPPLY
Thu Thiem Empire City Eco
Thaco Building
Current Occupancy: ~ 65%
(Future Supply) Smart City
Asking Rent: ~$35/sq.m/month (Future Supply)
Thu Thiem
Metropole Thu Thiem NUA
(Future Supply)
Thu Thiem Bridge 2
(On-going construction)HCMC OFFICE
BY THE END OF 2019…
The market will More competition will Flexible workspace supply Tech firms will
welcome more than lead tomoderate (GFA) is expected to
gain more
130,000 sq.m.
rental growth , increase twofold traction in office
NLA new office demand
spaces especially Grade A3 HCMC
CONDOMINIUM
LUXURY: > US$4,000 psm
HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm
MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm
AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm
(Not incl. VAT)HCMC CONDOMINIUM
DROP IN NEW SUPPLY
1
HIGH DEMAND FOR
ACTIVELY SEEKING FOR 5 2 CONDOMINIUM
DEVELOPMENT SITES 6M 2019 Price increase 20% y-o-y
Stories
Over 80% sold rate
COMPRESSED RENTAL YIELD 4 3 REMAINING CHALLENGES
Rental
Yield vs. Bank’s
deposit rate
Slow moving infrastructure
Thu Thiem land disputeHCMC CONDOMINIUM
16/03/2019
19/02/2019
A HIGH
VALUE MARKET
TO FOREIGN
INVESTORS 10/04/2019
Source: retrieved from Bloomberg, The Saigon Times, Business Insider, date 28th June, 2019.HCMC CONDOMINIUM
CURRENT CHALLENGES
Funding sources and legal procedures
23/06/2019 20/06/2019
The project of nearly 13.000 condominium Construction of 110 villas
units in district 2 was sanctioned due to project in South Saigon was
illegal construction stopped
20/06/2019
27/06/2019
Thu Thiem’s Conclusion: 13-month term deposit rate increased
Immediate retrieval of trillion dong significantly, exceeding 8% per year
11/06/2019
20/06/2019
The first Danang condotel license was
Corporate bond issuance: lack of rescinded to adjust for ownership
protection tools for individual investor duration
Source: retrieved from Vietnamnet, Vnexpress, Nguoi Dong Hanh, Tuoi Tre online, CafeF date 28th June, 2019.HCMC CONDOMINIUM
MARKET SNAPSHOT 6M 2019
High absorption rate in new projects amidst low launch supply
1,873
Slow Moving Projects US$ psm
88% ▲20% y-o-y
New Launch Sold Units sold out in newly
launched projects
8,547 10,500
Sold rate Selling price
▼42% ▼38%
* Selling price ▲7% y-o-y, compared with the
y-o-y y-o-y same basket last year
Selling price: US$ psm (exclude VAT and quote on NSA)
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC CONDOMINIUM BUSY PROJECT INTRODUCTIONS ACROSS THE CITY TO GAUGE MARKET INTERESTS
HCMC CONDOMINIUM
Q2 2019 MARKET SNAPSHOT
4,124 units launched from 10 projects ▼ 7% q-o-q
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
1 project 6 projects 3 projects 0 projects
180 unit 1,647 units 2,297 units 0 units
▼ 12% q-o-q ▲ 27% q-o-q ▼ 6% q-o-q
NEW LAUNCH ▲ 32% y-o-y ▲ 21% y-o-y ▼ 42% y-o-y
6,030 US$ psm 2,459 US$ psm 1,343 US$ psm 881 US$ psm
▲ 3% q-o-q ▲ 2% q-o-q ▲ 6% q-o-q ▲ 3% q-o-q
SELLING PRICE ▲ 15% y-o-y ▲ 23% y-o-y ▲ 13% y-o-y ▲ 8% y-o-y
(*)
152 units 1,701 units 2,703 units 20 units
▼ 37% q-o-q ▲ 30% q-o-q ▼ 11% q-o-q ▼ 99% q-o-q
SOLD UNITS ▲ 65% y-o-y ▼ 2% y-o-y ▼ 39% y-o-y ▼ 98% y-o-y
Selling price: US$ psm (exclude VAT and quote on NSA)
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC CONDOMINIUM
Q2 2019 NEW LAUNCH
Prices increase compare to previous launches
The Peak Rome Diamond Lotus The Infiniti Palm Garden
The Marq
District 7 District 2 District 7 District 2
District 1
Price: US$3,700 Price: US$3,550 Price: US$2,740 Price: US$2,420
Price: US$7,100
▲ 6% ▲ 16% ▲ 17% ▲ 11%
Sunshine City Diamond Brilliant The Signial SAFIRA Centum Wealth
District 7 Tan Phu District 7 District 9 District 9
Price: US$2,330 Price: US$2,220 Price: US$1,780 Price: US$1,390 Price: US$1,200
▲ 7% ▲ 5% Tenure: 50 years ▲ 15% ▲ 4%HCMC CONDOMINIUM
Q2 2019 NEW LAUNCH
Lowest number of new launch in the last five years
New Launch Supply
12,000
No. of New Launch
10,000
(units)
8,000
▼ 7% q-o-q
6,000 ▼ 34% y-o-y
4,000
2,000
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2017 2018 2019
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC CONDOMINIUM
Q2 2019 NEW LAUNCH
New launches primarily come from the East and South
No. Project Unit
Selling price New Launch by Location
(US$ psm)
1 The Marq 180 7,100
2 Midtown - The Peak 60 3,700
3 Rome Diamond Lotus 530 3,550 10
4 Riviera Point - Infiniti 323 2,740
5 Palm Garden 320 2,420 7 9
6 Sunshine City 242 2,330 3 5
1
Diamond Brilliant -
7 172 2,220
Celadon City
Luxury project
8 The Signial 979 1,780
High-end project
9 Safira Khang Dien 1,070 1,390 4
Mid-end project
10 Centum Wealth 248 1,200 2 6 8
Selling price: US$ psm (exclude VAT and quote on NSA)
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC CONDOMINIUM
PRIMARY PRICE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS
Primary
price
(US$ psm) Luxury High end Mid end Affordable
US$6,030 US$2,459 US$1,343 US$881
7,000 ▲ 15% y-o-y ▲ 23% y-o-y ▲ 13% y-o-y ▲ 8% y-o-y
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2016 2017 2018 2019
Selling price: US$ psm (exclude VAT and quote on NSA)
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC CONDOMINIUM
SECONDARY PRICE ALSO INCREASES ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS
Secondary
price Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
(US$ psm) US$ 4,208 US$ 2,058 US$ 1,329 US$ 777
▲ 12% y-o-y ▲ 7% y-o-y ▲ 13% y-o-y ▲ 2% y-o-y
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2016 2017 2018 2019
Selling price: US$ psm (exclude VAT and quote on NSA)
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC CONDOMINIUM
SOLD UNITS
10,000 ▼ 23% q-o-q
8,000 ▼ 37% y-o-y
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2017 2018 2019
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Mid-end
ABSORPTION RATE High-end
in Newly Launched Luxury
Projects Q2 2019
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC CONDOMINIUM
INVENTORY ABSORBED GRADUALLY
Accumulated Inventory Q2 2019 Inventory
25,000 Total supply:
268,135 units*
20,000
6% of total luxury
▼ 12% y-o-y new launch supply
15,000
5% of total high-end
new launch supply
10,000 95%
5%
7% of total mid-end
5,000 new launch supply
4% of total affordable
0 new launch supply
2016 2017 2018 Q2 2019
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Unsold Sold
* Accumulated supply since 1999.
Source: CBRE Research.EXPECTING A STRONG 2H
HCMC CONDOMINIUM
MARKET OUTLOOK
Active construction works expected to continue
Sunshine City, District 7 Lovera Vista, Binh Chanh Empire City, District 2
Sunshine Group Khang Dien Keppel Land, Tran Thai, Tien Phuoc, Gaw Capital
Sales gallery
One Verandah, District 2 AIO City, Binh Tan Vinhomes GRANDPARK, District 9
Mapletree Hoa Lam Vingroup
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC CONDOMINIUM
THE EAST CONTINUES TO LEAD THE MARKET
2019 New Launch Supply
VINGROUP NOVALAND
Vinhomes GRANDPARK, D.9 Saigon Broadway, D.2
1%
44,000 units ~3,200 units 61%
SUNSHINE GROUP XUAN MAI CORP. 7%
8%
Sunshine Venicia, D.2 Eco Green Saigon, D.7 23%
~775 units ~1,600 units remaining
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC CONDOMINIUM
NOTABLE MOVEMENTS ARE COMING IN THE WEST
HOA LAM NAM LONG DHA
AIO City, Binh Tan District Akari City, Binh Tan District D-Homme, D.6
~ 2,100 units ~3,000 units ~500 units
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC CONDOMINIUM
MARKET OUTLOOK
Drop in new launch leads to good sale performance
Forecast on New launch and Sold units Forecast on Primary Price Growth Rate y-o-y
40,000 8,000
Primary price (US$ psm)
35,000 7,000
30,000 6,000
25,000 5,000
20,000 4,000
15,000 3,000
10,000 2,000
5,000 1,000
0 0
2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
New launch supply Sold units Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Selling price: US$ psm (exclude VAT and quote on NSA) ▲ 5% - 10% y-o-y in average
Source: CBRE Research.HCMC CONDOMINIUM
BY THE END OF 2019…
New launch The East Growth of selling Demand remains
supply is expected continues to lead price will be more strong from both
to be accelerated in the market
stable thanks to more local and foreign
2H 2019 new launch supply buyersCBRE FORUM 2019
THANK YOU
For more information regarding this presentation please contact:
CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting
T +84 28 6248 7668
Email: research.vietnam@cbre.com
All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including
projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not
verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness
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