Canadian Refinery Overview - Energy Market Assessment April 2018 - National Energy Board

Page created by Irene Wheeler
 
CONTINUE READING
Canadian Refinery Overview - Energy Market Assessment April 2018 - National Energy Board
National Energy     Office national
            Board               de l’énergie

National Energy               Office national
          Board               de l’énergie

                                                              Canadian
                                                     Refinery Overview
                                                  Energy Market Assessment
                                                                 April 2018

                                                            Canadian Refinery Overview   1
Canadian Refinery Overview - Energy Market Assessment April 2018 - National Energy Board
Permission to Reproduce                                                  Autorisation de reproduction
Materials may be reproduced for personal, educational, and/              Le contenu de cette publication peut être reproduit à des fins
or non-profit activities, in part or in whole and by any means,          personnelles, éducatives et(ou) sans but lucratif, en tout ou en
without charge or further permission from the National Energy            partie et par quelque moyen que ce soit, sans frais et sans autre
                                                                         permission de l’Office national de l’énergie, pourvu qu’une
Board (NEB or Board), provided that due diligence is exercised
                                                                         diligence raisonnable
in ensuring the accuracy of the information reproduced; that
the NEB is identified as the source institution; and that the            soit exercée afin d’assurer l’exactitude de l’information reproduite,
reproduction is not represented as an official version of the            que l’Office national de l’énergie soit mentionné comme
                                                                         organisme source et que la reproduction ne soit présentée ni
information reproduced, nor as having been made in affiliation
                                                                         comme une version officielle ni comme une copie ayant été faite
with, or with the endorsement of, the NEB. For permission to
                                                                         en collaboration avec l’Office national de l’énergie ou avec son
reproduce the information in this publication for commercial             consentement.
redistribution, please email: info@neb-one.gc.ca.
                                                                         Quiconque souhaite utiliser le présent rapport dans une instance
If a party wishes to rely on material from this report in any            réglementaire devant l’Office peut le soumettre à cette fin,
regulatory proceeding before the NEB, it may submit the                  comme c’est le cas pour tout autre document public. Une partie
material, just as it may submit any public document. Under these         qui agit ainsi se trouve à adopter l’information déposée et peut se
circumstances, the submitting party in effect adopts the material        voir poser des questions au sujet de cette dernière.
and that party could be required to answer questions pertaining          Le présent rapport ne fournit aucune indication relativement à
to the material.                                                         l’approbation ou au rejet d’une demande quelconque. L’Office
                                                                         étudie chaque demande en se fondant sur les documents qui lui
This report does not provide any indications of whether or not           sont soumis en preuve à ce moment.
any application will be approved. The NEB will decide on specific
applications based on the material in evidence before it at              Pour obtenir l’autorisation de reproduire l’information contenue
                                                                         dans cette publication à des fins commerciales, faire parvenir un
that time.
                                                                         courriel à : info@neb-one.gc.ca

 © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada as represented by the         © Sa Majesté la Reine du chef du Canada représentée par l’Office
 National Energy Board 2018                                               national de l’énergie 2018
 Canadian Refinery Overview 2018 –                                        Aperçu des raffineries au Canada en 2018 –
 Energy Market Assessment                                                 Évaluation du marché de l’énergie.
 Cat. No.: NE23-193/2018E-PDF                                             Cat. No. : NE23-193/2018F-PDF
 ISBN: 978-0-660-25790-7                                                  ISBN : 978-0-660-25791-4
 This report is published separately in both official languages and is    Ce rapport est publié séparément dans les deux langues
 available upon request in multiple formats.                              officielles. On peut obtenir cette publication sur supports
                                                                          multiples, sur demande.
Canadian Refinery Overview - Energy Market Assessment April 2018 - National Energy Board
About the NEB
The National Energy Board (NEB or Board) is an independent federal regulator. Its purpose is to promote
safety and security, environmental protection, and economic efficiency in the Canadian public interest within
the mandate set by Parliament for the regulation of pipelines, energy development, and trade.
The Board’s main responsibilities include regulating:
 • the construction, operation, and abandonment of pipelines that cross international borders or provincial/
   territorial boundaries;
 • associated pipeline tolls and tariffs;
 • the construction and operation of international power lines and designated interprovincial power lines;
 • imports of natural gas and exports of crude oil, natural gas, oil, natural gas liquids, refined petroleum
   products, and electricity; and
 • oil and gas exploration and production activities in specified northern and offshore areas.

About this Report
The Board monitors energy markets and assesses Canadian energy requirements and trends to support
its regulatory responsibilities. This report, Canadian Refinery Overview 2018 – Energy Market Assessment,
is part of a portfolio of publications on energy supply, demand, and infrastructure that the NEB publishes
regularly as part of its ongoing market monitoring.
Contributors to this report include: Colette Craig (project manager), Grant Moss.
Questions or comments? Please e-mail energy-energie@neb-one.gc.ca.

                                                                                        Canadian Refinery Overview   i
Canadian Refinery Overview - Energy Market Assessment April 2018 - National Energy Board
Table of Contents
     Executive Summary .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 1

     What is a Refinery? .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 2
          Refinery Profitability .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  3

     Canada’s Refineries .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 4

     Crude Oil Pricing and its Impact on Canadian Refineries .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  6
     Crude Oil Receipts and Refining Capacity  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  7
          Refining Capacity .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .7

     Refined Petroleum Product Supply and Demand Balance  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  9

     Refineries by Region .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 11
          Western Canada .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  11
          Central and Atlantic Canada  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 12
          Ontario .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  12
          Quebec and Atlantic Canada .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 14
                      Crude Oil Imports to Central and Eastern Canada  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  15

ii   Energy Market Assessment – April 2018
Executive Summary
Canada is the world’s seventh largest crude oil producer1 and has the world’s third largest crude oil reserves.
It has a strong refining industry, ranking 11th in the world in capacity. Despite being a top ten producer
of crude oil, and having a strong refining industry, Canada processes only a fraction of its own crude oil
production. Most of the refineries in Canada, built when there were abundant supplies of light crude oil,
were not configured to process growing volumes of heavy crude oil from the oil sands. Canadian refineries
have imported significant volumes of crude oil, mostly light, because not all refineries have had access to
western Canadian crude oil.

Refineries, including those in Canada, are generally located on major waterways, near crude oil production
or near major population centres. Location is important because it determines both where a refinery sources
its crude, and the type of crude oil it processes.

Canada has 14 full refineries and 2 asphalt refineries. Canada’s total refining capacity is 295 thousand cubic
metres per day (103m3/d) or 1.9 million barrels per day (MMb/d) (Figure 3). Quebec and Atlantic Canada
have the most refining capacity at 124 103m3/d (782 thousand barrels per day (Mb/d)), followed by western
Canada at 109 103m3/d (683 Mb/d) and Ontario at 62 103m3/d (390 Mb/d).

Canadian refineries produce refined petroleum products (RPPs) including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel,
heating oil and others. Canada’s RPP production is primarily for domestic consumption, with some exports
mainly from the Atlantic refineries.

Refineries east of the Prairie Provinces process primarily conventional light crude oil. Refineries in western
Canada process more oil sands crude than refineries in eastern Canada. The reversal of Enbridge Line 9,
back to its original eastward flow, has connected western Canadian crude oil supply with Montreal refineries
and allowed more to flow to Ontario. This was an important market development for both crude oil
producers and refiners. It gave producers an additional market for their production and it gave refiners
pipeline access to relatively less expensive western Canadian crude oil.

Although Canadian refineries are processing more Canadian crude than ever before, eastern Canadian
refineries will still import crude oil to meet their refining needs. This will expose them to the international
crude oil market, more so than refineries in western Canada.

1   Behind Russia, Saudi Arabia, United States (U.S.), Iraq, Iran, and China.

                                                                                           Canadian Refinery Overview   1
What is a Refinery?
    A refinery processes crude oil into RPPs such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and heating oil, as well as liquid
    petroleum gases (LPGs) such as propane and butanes. Approximately 80% of the products produced in a
    refinery are used to either move people and goods, or keep people warm. The other 20% includes inputs
    into the petrochemical industry, as well as kerosene and stove oil, asphalt and lubricating oil and greases, to
    name a few.

    Crude oil is a mixture of many individual hydrocarbons, each of which have a unique boiling point. This
    property is the basis for separating the components in the distillation process, the first and most important
    process in the refinery.

    In the first step of the refining process, crude oil is heated in a large furnace, where most of the oil boils off
    into a gas. The liquids and vapours are then discharged into distillation units which are specifically designed
    vertical towers that separate and collect fractions of crude oil components with similar boiling points.
    Because heavier hydrocarbons have higher boiling points than the lighter hydrocarbons they tend to fall
    to the bottom of the column in liquid form. At the same time, lighter components tend to rise in gaseous
    form to the cooler top end of the column. Components that boil somewhere in between are collected and
    withdrawn from the distillation tower at intermediate points in the column.

      FIGURE 1

      Simplified Illustration of a Petroleum Refinery

           Distillation                                                                          End products
           tower
                     gasoline                                                                    LPG
                      vapors
                         LPG
                     naphtha                               reformer                              gasoline

                    kerosene                                                                     jet fuel
                        diesel                                                                   diesel fuel
                     distillate
                                                            akylation                            LPG
            medium weight                                     unit
                   gas oil                                                                       gasoline
                                            cracking
                       heavy                  units                                              motor gasoline
                       gas oil                                                                   jet fuel
                                                                                                 diesel fuel

                    residuum                coker
                                                                                                 industrial fuel
                                                                                                 asphalt base

      Source:
      Energy Information Administration

2   Energy Market Assessment – April 2018
After distillation, the heavier products can be processed in a variety of ways, all with the objective of
increasing the refinery yield of higher value, lighter products like gasoline and diesel. Cracking breaks down
heavier streams from the distillation process into lighter components, and is the most important conversion
process in a modern refinery. It turns heavier crude oil fractions (which would otherwise have to be sold at
a discount to crude) into blending components for finished products. Other refinery processes, including
alkylation and reforming target improvement in the quality of specific crude oil fractions. Not all refineries
have coking units, but those that do are able to process even the heaviest distillation fraction from crude oil
(commonly called residue), into lighter fractions for subsequent processing and blending.

Refinery Profitability
Refineries maximize profit by maximizing yields of high value products like transportation fuels (gasoline and
diesel) while minimizing shipping costs of their feedstock (crude oil) and products. Maximizing profitability
is also a balancing act: a refinery can reduce the costs of its feedstock by refining heavy crude oil instead of
light crude oil, because light crude oil is more expensive; however, heavy crude oil is more difficult and costly
to refine, as it requires additional equipment like a coker.

Compared to light crude oil, refining heavy crude oil typically yields higher proportions of lower value
products, all else being equal.

A barrel of crude oil equals 42 U.S. gallons2
(159 litres) and produces approximately                      FIGURE 2
170 litres of RPPs when refined. (Figure 2)
The outputs from refining are greater than                   Petroleum Products Made From a Barrel of Crude Oil
the inputs, because most of the products
they make have a lower density than the
crude oil they process. This increase in
volume is called processing gain. Different
refineries can also produce different yields                                                              Other products: 13.2%
because of the structure and composition
of their processing units.                                                                                Petroleum Coke: 5.4%

Demand for RPPs, particularly for gasoline,                                                               Residual fuel oil: 2.5%
is somewhat seasonal. In the spring,                                                                      Distillate fuel oil: 28.4%
refiners maximize production of gasoline
to meet increased demand during the                                                                       Jet fuel: 9.9%
summer driving season. There is also more
asphalt produced in the summer because
of increased road construction. In the
                                                                                                          Gasoline: 47%
fall, production of light fuel or heating
oil increases because of higher heating
demand during winter.

  What is Light Crude Oil? Generally,
  crude oil with low viscosity which flows
                                                             Source:
  freely at room temperature. There are                      Energy Information Agency Administration
  varying thresholds for the line between
  light and medium crude oils. Light crude
  oil is also a collective term used to refer                What is Heavy Crude Oil? Generally, a crude oil that is
  to conventional light crude oil, upgraded                  very viscous and has a density greater than 900 kg/m³,
  heavy crude oil, and pentanes plus.                        or an API gravity below 25.

2 1 U.S. gallon equals 3.8 litres or .83 imperial gallons.

                                                                                                        Canadian Refinery Overview     3
Canada’s Refineries
    Canada’s total refining capacity is 295 103m3/d (1.9 MMb/d) (Figure 3). Quebec and Atlantic Canada have the
    most refining capacity at 124 103m3/d (782 Mb/d), followed by western Canada at 109 103m3/d (686 Mb/d)
    and Ontario at 62 103m3/d (390 Mb/d).

    Canadian refineries have different characteristics depending on their location. Generally, refineries are
    located on major waterways, near major cities or near crude oil production. Being on a major waterway gives
    a refinery access to offshore crude oil as well as export market access for its RPPs. Being close to a large
    city provides a market for its RPPs and lowers the cost of transportation. Being close to crude oil production
    gives a refinery ample local supply at low transportation costs.

    Most Canadian refineries are owned by vertically integrated companies, which have crude oil production,
    refining and product marketing. The refineries in western Canada have access to western Canadian crude
    oil production; therefore, domestic crude oil supplies meet all of their feedstock needs. The refineries in
    Ontario used to import crude oil from around the world to supplement their needs. However, the recent
    reversal of Enbridge Line 9 provided greater access to western Canadian crude oil and U.S. imports.
    Quebec also receives crude oil on the reversed Line 9 and processes western Canadian crude oil, as well as
    U.S. imports. Refineries in Atlantic Canada import most of their crude oil and process some domestic east
    coast production. Refineries base their crude oil purchasing decisions on access and economics. Currently,
    refineries in Atlantic Canada have no pipeline access to western Canadian crude oil and this is why the
    eastern Canadian refineries use mainly imported crude oil rather that Canadian production3.

    Refineries in western and central Canada receive the majority of crude oil via pipeline, with smaller volumes
    transported by rail. In Atlantic Canada, most of the crude oil is delivered by tanker with smaller volumes
    transported by rail.

        The History of the Enbridge Line 9 and its importance
        to the Canadian Refining Industry
        As a result of the 1973 Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) embargo, the
        Government of Canada, concerned about the potential vulnerability of central Canadian refineries
        which imported crude oil, asked Interprovincial Pipeline (IPL, now Enbridge) to extend its pipeline
        system from the Toronto area to Montreal. In 1975, the Government entered into an agreement
        with IPL to construct an extension from Sarnia to Montreal. The Line had a capacity of 50 103m3/d
        (315 000 b/d).
        Between 1976 and 1997, Line 9 supplied refineries in Ontario and Quebec with western Canadian
        crude oil via Sarnia after being shipped through the U.S. In 1999, because of increased global
        oil supply, Line 9 was reversed allowing overseas crude oil (which was already being imported at
        Portland, Maine and transported on the Portland-Montreal Pipeline to Montreal refineries) to be
        shipped further westward on Line 9 to reach refineries in Ontario. During that time, Line 9 had a
        capacity of 38 160 m3/d (240 000 b/d).
        In 2011, with lower North American crude oil prices relative to imported crude oil, the line was
        underutilized and Enbridge applied to the Board to re-reverse a section of the pipeline between
        Sarnia and North Westover, Ontario. In 2013, the first phase of the Line 9 reversal was completed,
        allowing transport of North American crude oil to more refineries in Ontario. In 2012, Enbridge filed
        an application with the Board to reverse the remaining section of Line 9, between North Westover
        and Montreal and expand the capacity to 47 700 m3/d (300 000 b/d). Since 2015, growing supplies of
        western Canadian and U.S. crude oil have been reaching refineries in Quebec.

    3 Since 2010, Newfoundland and Labrador has increasingly exported more of its oil to non U.S. markets. Exports to non U.S.
      markets such as Europe and the Caribbean made up 8% of the province’s export volumes in 2010 and increased to 21% of
      the province’s exports in 2016.

4   Energy Market Assessment – April 2018
FIGURE 3

Canadian Refineries and Capacity

                       Imperial – Strathcona   Sturgeon Refinery
                       Edmonton                Redwater
      Husky Energy     191 Mb/d                (Under Construction)
      Prince George
      12 Mb/d                                  Shell Scotford
                                               Fort Saskatchewan                                                                                                                 Silver Range
                                               100 Mb/d                                       Quebec/Atlantic Canada                                                             Come by Chance
               Suncor                                                                                    3 3                                                                     115 Mb/d
               Edmonton                                                                            124 10 m /d
                                        Husky Energy
               142 Mb/d
                                        Lloydminster                                                782 Mb/d
                                        29 Mb/d                                                                            Valero                                   Irving
  Parkland Burnaby Refinery
                                                 Consumer Co-operative                                                     Levis                                    Saint John
  Burnaby
                                                 Regina                                                                    265 Mb/d                                 300 Mb/d
  55 Mb/d                   Moose Jaw Refinery
                            Moose Jaw            135 Mb/d
                          19 Mb/d                                                                                                      Suncor
                                                                                                                                       Montréal
           Western Canada                                                                                                              137 Mb/d
                   3 3
            109 10 m /d                                                             Suncor                   Imperial
                                                                                                             Nanticoke
              683 Mb/d                                                  Ontario
                                                                                    Sarnia
                                                                                                             113 Mb/d
                                                                                    85 Mb/d
                                                                           3 3
                                                                      62 10 m /d   Imperial      Shell
                                                                       390 Mb/d      Sarnia      Sarnia
                                                                                   119 Mb/d      73 Mb/d

                                                                                              Map produced by the NEB, April 2018. The map is a graphical representation intended for general informational purposes only

Source:
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP)

                                                                                                                                                        Canadian Refinery Overview                                          5
Crude Oil Pricing its Impact on
    Canadian Refineries
    Canada imports crude oil even though it produces more crude oil than it processes in its refineries. This is
    because of the locations of the refineries and the type of crude oil that is produced in Canada. As a result,
    some refineries process both domestic and imported crude oil. Canadian refineries that process imported
    crude oil are exposed to global crude oil prices which are higher at times than North American prices.
    Between 2000 and 2010, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is the benchmark price for North American
    crude oil, averaged $1.40/bbl higher than the price for Brent, which is the international benchmark price.
    (Figure 4)
    In 2011 and 2012, rising crude oil production in the U.S. and limited export access for North American
    crudes caused the price of WTI to be much lower than Brent. The differential averaged almost US$17/bbl,
    and reached as high as US$27/bbl in September 2011.

        FIGURE 4

          Spot Price of West Texas Intermediate and Europe Brent

                160
                140
                120
                100
                80
      $US/bbl

                60
                40
                20
                 0
                -20
                -40
                     Jan-2000
                                Jul-2000
                                           Jan-2001
                                                      Jul-2001
                                                                 Jan-2002
                                                                            Jul-2002
                                                                                       Jan-2003
                                                                                                  Jul-2003
                                                                                                             Jan-2004
                                                                                                                        Jul-2004
                                                                                                                                   Jan-2005
                                                                                                                                              Jul-2005
                                                                                                                                                         Jan-2006
                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-2006
                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-2007
                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan-2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul-2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul-2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan-2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-2017
                                                                                                                        Differential                                                           WTI spot price FOB                                                                                Brent spot price FOB
         Source:
         Energy Information Administration

    Refineries in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada which import light crude oil priced at Brent, saw their
    crude oil costs rise compared to those refineries in western Canada and the U.S., with access to less
    expensive, western Canadian or midcontinent North American crude oil.

6   Energy Market Assessment – April 2018
Crude Oil Receipts and
Refining Capacity
A refinery purchases crude oil to consume in its refinery or to store for later use. These are crude oil receipts.
Between 1982 and 2004, refinery receipts of imported crude oil grew, while domestic crude oil receipts
declined. During this time, the refining profit from running offshore crude oil rather than domestic crude
oil was favourable. That meant that many of the refineries in Canada were importing crude oil. In 2005, this
started to change. Imports began to fall and domestic crude oil volumes rose slightly. (Figure 5) In 2010,
this trend became more pronounced because the difference in the cost of North American crude oil and
offshore crude oil was significant. The closure of refineries in central and Atlantic Canada that imported
crude oil, the economic use of rail to transport discounted domestic crude oil and the re-reversal of Line 9
also contributed to this trend.

   FIGURE 5

   Crude Supply to Canadian Refineries
           7 000

           6 000

           5 000

           4 000
 103m3/d

           3 000

           2 000

           1 000

              0
               Jan-1982
                          Dec-1982
                                     Nov-1983
                                                Oct-1984
                                                           Sep-1985
                                                                      Aug-1986
                                                                                 Jul-1987
                                                                                            Jun-1988
                                                                                                       May-1989
                                                                                                                  Apr-1990
                                                                                                                             Mar-1991
                                                                                                                                        Feb-1992
                                                                                                                                                   Jan-1993
                                                                                                                                                              Dec-1993
                                                                                                                                                                         Nov-1994
                                                                                                                                                                                    Oct-1995
                                                                                                                                                                                               Sep-1996
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Aug-1997
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-1998
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jun-1999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May-2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-2001
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mar-2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Feb-2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Dec-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Nov-2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Oct-2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep-2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aug-2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               May-2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr-2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar-2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Feb-2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec-2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-2016
                                                                                                                                          Total domestic crude                                                                                                   Total crude imports                                                                                                                                                                        Oct-2017
   Source:
   CANSIM 134-0001

Refining Capacity
Between 2005 and 2013, three refineries closed in central and Atlantic Canada: Imperial Oil Dartmouth
(2013), Shell Montreal (2010), and Petro-Canada Oakville (2005). While the age4 and complexity of those
refineries were factors, changing environmental regulations for gasoline, overall declining demand for RPPs,
and higher crude oil costs for eastern refineries have led to a broader, long-term trend of smaller refineries
closing and consolidating in favour of larger, more complex ones.

4 The Dartmouth Refinery operated for 95 years, the Shell refinery for 76 years and the Oakville Refinery for 63 years.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Canadian Refinery Overview                                                                     7
Despite a decline in the number of total refineries, the average capacity per refinery in Canada has
    increased. This indicates that consolidation has resulted in larger refineries and greater efficiencies.
    The average capacity per refinery in 2016, reached 18 103m3/d (114 Mb/d) – an all-time high. (Figure 6)
    There had been no new refineries built in Canada in 30 years. However, in late 2017, the Sturgeon Refinery
    located northeast of Edmonton began operations.

      FIGURE 6

      Average Capacity per Refinery vs Number of Refineries
       m3/d

     20 000                                                                                                                                                                            50
      18 000                                                                                                                                                                           45
      16 000                                                                                                                                                                           40
      14 000                                                                                                                                                                           35
      12 000                                                                                                                                                                           30
      10 000                                                                                                                                                                           25
       8 000                                                                                                                                                                           20
       6 000                                                                                                                                                                           15
       4 000                                                                                                                                                                           10
       2 000                                                                                                                                                                           5
           0                                                                                                                                                                           0
               1947

                      1950

                             1953

                                    1956

                                           1959

                                                  1962

                                                         1965

                                                                1968

                                                                       1971

                                                                              1974

                                                                                     1977

                                                                                            1980

                                                                                                   1983

                                                                                                          1986

                                                                                                                 1989

                                                                                                                        1992

                                                                                                                               1995

                                                                                                                                      1998

                                                                                                                                             2001

                                                                                                                                                    2004

                                                                                                                                                           2007

                                                                                                                                                                  2010

                                                                                                                                                                         2013

                                                                                                                                                                                2016
                                                           Capacity Per Refinery                                    Number of Refineries
       Source:
       CAPP

       The Sturgeon Refinery
       The Sturgeon Refinery, located northeast of Edmonton, is owned
       and operated by North West Redwater Partnership. The Partnership
       is an alliance between North West Upgrading and Canadian Natural
       Upgrading Ltd., a subsidiary of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. It is
       the first Canadian refinery built in 30 years.
       Sturgeon is estimated to process 13 103m3/d (79 Mb/d) of diluted
       bitumen into ultra-low sulphur diesel fuel and other high-value
       products, including diluent.
       In its first phase of operation, the Alberta government will provide
       75% of the diluted bitumen feedstock and Canadian Natural
       Resources will supply the remaining 25%.
       Source:
       North West Redwater Partnership
       The refinery produced its first diesel fuel in December 2017. It is still
       under construction and can currently only process synthetic crude oil and
       not bitumen.
       Sturgeon is using advanced technologies to reduce environmental impacts,
       including a carbon capture and storage (CCS) system. The refinery will also tie
       into the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line that will transport CO2 to declining oil fields
       in central Alberta for the purpose of enhanced oil recovery.

8   Energy Market Assessment – April 2018
Refined Petroleum Product Supply
and Demand Balance
Canada is the seventh largest crude oil producer in the world. Despite this, Canadian refineries process
less than 30% of that crude oil. (Figure 7) This is mainly because of the size of Canada’s refining industry
compared to the resource size, the location of its refineries, and the lack of cross-country pipeline
connectivity. Canadian refineries operate mostly to meet domestic needs, with some exports.
Most refineries, including those in Canada, do not operate at 100% capacity. This is mostly due to planned/
unplanned maintenance and outages. In 2017, Canadian refineries operated at 84% of their capacity.5

  FIGURE 7

  Refined Product Disposition – 20175

                                                                  m3/d
                             -       100 000      200 000       300 000       400 000       500 000     600 000      700 000

         Refinery Receipts

      Crude Oil Production

   RPP Refinery Production

       RPP Domestic Sales

              RPP Exports

              RPP Imports

                             -   500 000    1 000 000 1 500 000 2 000 000 2 500 000 3 000 000 3 500 000 4 000 000

                                                                  b/d
                                      Domestic Crude           Imported Crude            Refined Products

  Source:
  Refined Products: CANSIM 1340004, Crude: CANSIM 1340001, Crude Oil Production: CANSIM 1260003

5 Year-to-Date September 2017.

                                                                                                      Canadian Refinery Overview   9
FIGURE 8                                                             FIGURE 9
      Canadian Crude Oil Receipts by Type6                                  Canadian Crude Oil Production by Type7

                      6%                                                                       11%
                                             Heavy crude oil                                                        Heavy crude oil
                                             Synthetic crude oil             39%
         29%                                                                                                        Synthetic crude oil
                                                                                                        22%
                                             Light and medium
                                  54%        crude oil                                                              Light and medium
                                                                                                                    crude oil
                                             Bitumen
                                                                                                                    Bitumen
                11%
                                                                                               28%

       Source:                                                              Source:
       CANSIM 134-0001                                                      CANSIM 126-0001

     In 2017, over half of the crude oil processed in Canadian refineries was light conventional crude oil. Slightly
     over one-third of refinery receipts was crude oil from the oil sands (either bitumen or synthetic). (Figure 8)
     The rest is conventional heavy oil.
     In 2016, almost 40% of Canadian production was crude bitumen, followed by synthetic, light and medium,
     and heavy crude oil. (Figure 9).
     Figure 9 shows that bitumen accounts for almost 40% of Canadian production while making up less than
     10% of total crude oil refined in Canada. Canada exports most of its bitumen production to the U.S.

       FIGURE 10

       Canadian Crude Production vs Refinery Receipts

      103m3/d                                                                                                                      Mb/d
         700
                                                                                                                                   4 000
         600
                                                                                                                                   3 500
         500
                                                                                                                                   3 000

         400                                                                                                                       2 500

         300                                                                                                                       2 000

                                                                                                                                   1 500
         200
                                                                                                                                   1 000
         100
                                                                                                                                   5 00

            0                                                                                                                      0
                 2000 2001    2002   2003    2004   2005   2006    2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013    2014   2015

                                                               Production           Receipts

        Source:
        Production: CANSIM 126-0001 and Receipts: CANSIM 134-0004

     Crude oil receipts at Canadian refineries have not grown since 2000; however, Canadian production has
     increased. (Figure 10) Canadian refinery production peaked in 2004. Between 2004 and 2015, refinery
     production dropped nearly 15%. 67

     6 Year-to-Date January to October 2017.
     7 Average January and February 2016.

10   Energy Market Assessment – April 2018
Refineries by Region
Western Canada
Most refineries in western Canada are owned by vertically integrated companies, which have crude oil
production, refining, and product marketing. The refineries in western Canada have access to western
Canadian crude oil production and domestic crude oil supplies meet all of their feedstock needs. As shown
in Figure 11, refineries in western Canada are well connected to local crude oil production by pipeline
systems. These refineries use western Canadian crude oil because it is close. This is advantageous relative
to other Canadian refineries because their facilities produce products at a lower cost. If and when possible,
integrated companies even process their own crude oil production.

  FIGURE 11

  Western Canada – Refineries and Major Oil Transportation Routes

                                                                                                                                                                         ALBERTA REFINERIES
                                                                                                                                                                     A Edmonton
                                                                5                                                                                                        Imperial - 187 Mb/d
                                                                     Zama                                                                                                Suncor - 147 Mb/d
                                                                                                                                                                         Shell - 100 Mb/d
                                                                Rainbow Lake                                                                                         B   Lloydminster
                                                                                                                                                                         Husky Ashphalt Plant - 29 Mb/d
                                                                                                                                                                         Husky Upgrader - 82 Mb/d

                                                                                                                                                                         ALBERTA UPGRADERS
                                                                                                                C                                                    C Syncrude (Fort McMurray) - 465 Mb/d
                                                                                                      24
                                                                                                                                                                         Suncor (Fort McMurray) - 438 Mb/d
                                             Taylor                          13                        22           Fort McMurray                                        Shell (Scotford) - 240 Mb/d
                                                                                                                                                                         CNRL (Horizon) - 135 Mb/d
                                                                                                           21 16                                                         Nexen (Long Lake) - 72 Mb/d

                                                                                                                                                                         SASKATCHEWAN REFINERIES
                                                                                                                                                                     D Regina
                                                                                                           17       23                                                   Co-op Refinery-Upgrader Complex - 135 Mb/d
                                                                    12                                                                                               E Moose Jaw
                            Prince
                                      F                                                                    18                                                            Moose Jaw Ashphalt Plant - 19 Mb/d
                            George
                                                                                                                                     CANADA
                                                                                              A                          19                                              BRITISH COLUMBIA REFINERIES
                                                                              Edmonton                                                                               F Prince George
                                     11                                                                                       Lloydminster                               Husky - 12 Mb/d
                                                                                                                         B
                                                                                               Hardisty
                                                                                                                                                                     G Vancouver
                                                       3                                                                      20               Saskatoon
                                                                                                                                                                         Chevron - 55 Mb/d
                                                                                            Red Deer
                                                                                                                                   Kerrobert
                                                                                  14   25
                                                                                                                                         10
                                                Kamloops                                Calgary                                                                                                       Winnipeg
                                                                                                                                                       Regina
                                                                                                                               2                   E           D
             Nanaimo         Vancouver                Kelowna                                          15                                                                              1
                               G                                                                                                    20                     8             9
                                                                                                                     4
                 Victoria                                                              7          6
                                Anacortes
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Clearbrook
                                                                                       Cut Bank
                                                                                                                U N I T E D S TAT E S                              Trenton

  Major Oil Transportation Routes in Western Canada
  Pipelines (NEB Regulated)                                              Pipelines (Provincially Regulated)                                                        Other Features
           1 - Enbridge Mainline*                 9 - Westspur                    11 - Plateau                                        19 - Husky                             Municipalities                 Parks
           2 - Keystone                           10 - Cochin                     12 - Pembina                                        20 - PMC
           3 - Trans Mountain*                                                    13 - Rainbow                                        21 - Corridor                          Rail Systems
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Water Bodies
           4 - Express                                                            14 - Rangeland                                      22 - Syncrude                          US CAN Border
           5 - Enbridge Norman Wells                                              15 - Bow River                                      23 - Athabasca
           6 - Milk River                                                         16 - Waupisoo/Woodland                              24 - Horizon                       0          125       250                500 km
           7 - Aurora                                                             17 - Access                                         25 - Alberta Products*
           8 - Wascana                                                            18 - Cold Lake
  * Refined petroleum products are shipped on the Alberta Products Pipeline, as well as batched on the Enbridge Mainline and Trans Mountain.                                           Map produced by the NEB, March 2016

                                                                                                                                                                                      Canadian Refinery Overview             11
Refineries in Alberta and B.C. process more oil
     sands crude, synthetic and bitumen, than other                       FIGURE 12
     refineries in Canada. (Figure 12) B.C. refineries source            Input to Refineries by Crude Type –
     crude oil from B.C. as well as from Alberta on the                  Alberta and British Columbia8
     Trans Mountain Pipeline.
     Western Canada is connected with refined product
     pipelines. Within Alberta, RPPs are transported                                             24%
     from Edmonton on the Alberta Products Pipeline                                                         Heavy crude oil
     to the southern part of the province. Refined                                                          Synthetic crude oil
     petroleum products are transported to B.C. via                                                    3%   Light and medium
     the Trans Mountain pipeline and to Saskatchewan,                                                       crude oil
     Manitoba and northwestern Ontario on the                                61%                     12%
                                                                                                            Bitumen
     Enbridge Mainline.
     However, Alberta has limited access to RPP imports.
     In general, the Prairie Provinces cannot easily meet
     their RPP demand in the event of a disruption                         Source:
     because they do not have the capacity to bring in                     CANSIM 126-0003
     large quantities, by pipeline or other means, from
     other regions.8

     Central and Atlantic Canada
     In the past, Atlantic Canada and Quebec were not well connected to domestic crude oil production.
     Until recently, all of these Canadian refineries imported crude oil to meet their needs. With the reversal of
     Line 9 and more rail capacity, Quebec refineries now process some western Canadian crude oil and are less
     exposed to international crude oil market fluctuations.
     Refineries in Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick still rely almost entirely on imports, and at
     times process offshore eastern Canadian production. When it is economic to do so, the Irving refinery in
     New Brunswick rails crude oil from western Canada and the U.S. Because the refineries in Newfoundland
     and Labrador and New Brunswick import crude oil, they are more exposed to international crude oil
     market fluctuations.

     Ontario
     Ontario refineries process both western Canadian crude oil and imports. Almost 60% of the crude oil
     processed in Ontario is light crude. (Figure 14) Refining costs can be higher in Ontario due to this larger
     proportion of higher cost light crude, as well as added transportation costs given the distance between
     Sarnia and large producing areas.
     Since the reversal of Line 9 back to its eastward flow, more crude oil has been sourced from the U.S.
     (Figure 15)
     RPPs produced in Ontario are consumed in domestic regional markets. Three pipelines transport RPPs
     in Ontario: the Trans Northern Pipeline, the Sarnia Products Pipeline and the Sun Canadian Pipeline.
     The Trans Northern Pipeline transports RPPs from Quebec to locations in eastern Ontario and Toronto.
     The Sarnia Products Pipeline and the Sun Canadian Pipeline transport RPPs from Sarnia to Toronto.
     Ontario can also receive RPPs by rail, truck, and ship from Quebec and the U.S.

     8 Due to confidentiality rules, Saskatchewan is not included. Average Year-to-Date July 2017.

12   Energy Market Assessment – April 2018
FIGURE 13

    Eastern Canada and Ontario - Refineries and Major Oil Transportation Routes

        NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR REFINERIES
    A   Come by Chance
        Silber Range (Come by Chance) - 115 Mb/d

        NEW BRUNSWICK REFINERIES
    B   Saint John
        Irving - 300 Mb/d

        QUÉBEC REFINERIES
    C   Montréal/Lévis
        Suncor - 137 Mb/d
        Valero - 265 Mb/d
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Come By Chance
        ONTARIO REFINERIES
    D   Sarnia                                                               CANADA                                                                                                                                    A
        Imperial - 121 Mb/d
        Shell - 77 Mb/d
        Suncor - 85 Mb/d                                                              Jonquière
                                                                                                       New
    E   Nanticoke
        Imperial - 112 Mb/d                                                                          Brunswick

                                                                             Québec
                    Sudbury
                                                                                       Lévis                                         Moncton
                                 North Bay
                                                  Quebec                       4
                                                             Montréal
                                                                                                                                                          Nova
                                                                                       Lac-Mégantic                     Saint John
                                                  Ottawa                                                                                                 Scotia
                                                                                                                                B                                 Dartmouth
                                                                    C    2
                                 Ontario
                                                                                                                                                    Halifax
                                Peterborough
                                                       3

                      Toronto                     Kingston
                                                                                                  Portland
         D           1                                                                                                                                                  Atlantic Ocean
         Sarnia                   Niagara Falls
                         E                     U N I T E D S TAT E S
     Windsor

    Major Oil Transportation Routes in Eastern
                                           N J Canada and Ontario
    Pipelines (NEB Regulated)                      Pipelines (Provincially Regulated)                 Other Features
             1 - Enbridge Line 9 Pipeline                    4 - St. Laurence Pipeline*                               Municipalities                          Parks
             2 - Portland-Montréal Pipeline        * Refined petroleum products are                                                                                                 C
                                                                                                                                                                                    CAAN
                                                                                                                                                                                       NAAD
                                                                                                                                                                                          DAA
                                                     shipped on the Trans Northern and                                Rail Systems
             3 - Trans-Northern Pipeline*                                                                                                                     Water
                                                     St. Laurence pipelines.                                          US CAN Border                           Bodies
                                                                                                                    0          100          200                      400 km          U
                                                                                                                                                                                     UN N II TT E
                                                                                                                                                                                                EDD
                                                                                                                                                                                     S
                                                                                                                                                                                     S TT A
                                                                                                                                                                                          A TT EESS
                                                                                                                                       Map produced by the NEB, January 2018
                                                                                          The map is a graphical representation intended for general informational purposes only

                                                                                                                        FIGURE 14

                                                                                                                   Input to Refineries by Crude Type – Ontario9

                                                                                                                                 23%                                                                  Heavy crude oil
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Synthetic crude oil
                                                                                                                        5%                                                                            Light and medium
                                                                                                                                                                                   59%                crude oil
                                                                                                                            13%                                                                       Crude bitumen

                                                                                                                        Source:
                                                                                                                        CANSIM 126-0003

9

9 Year-to-Date October 2017.

                                                                                                                                                                                         Canadian Refinery Overview          13
FIGURE 15

       Western Canadian and Imported Crude Oil to Ontario Refineries

             m3/d
           80 000

            70 000

           60 000

            50 000

           40 000

            30 000

            20 000

            10 000

                  0
                      Jan-12
                               Apr-12
                                        Jul-12
                                                 Oct-12
                                                          Jan-13
                                                                   Apr-13
                                                                            Jul-13
                                                                                     Oct-13
                                                                                              Jan-14
                                                                                                       Apr-14
                                                                                                                Jul-14
                                                                                                                         Oct-14
                                                                                                                                  Jan-15
                                                                                                                                           Apr-15
                                                                                                                                                    Jul-15
                                                                                                                                                             Oct-15
                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-16
                                                                                                                                                                               Apr-16
                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Apr-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-17
                                                                     Domestic Crude                                                                  Imported Crude
        Source:
        CANSIM 134-0001

     Quebec and                                                                                                                            FIGURE 16

     Atlantic Canada                                                                                                                   Input to Refineries by Crude Type – Quebec10

     Access to tidewater allows refineries in Quebec and
     Atlantic Canada to have a more diverse crude oil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Heavy crude oil
     supply than those in Ontario and western Canada,
                                                                                                                                                35%
     as well as access to markets for their RPP exports. In                                                                                                                                                           Synthetic crude oil
     2013, the Board approved the reversal and expansion                                                                                                                                                              Light and medium
     of Line 9B, between North Westover, Ontario and                                                                                                                                             56%                  crude oil
     Montreal, Quebec, so that crude oil could flow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Crude bitumen
     from west to east all the way to Montreal. This gave                                                                                               7%
     refineries in Quebec a pipeline connection to western                                                                                               2%
     Canadian and U.S. crude oil supply and reversed all of
     Line 9 to its original direction.                                                                                                      Source:
                                                                                                                                            CANSIM 126-0003
     Quebec refineries process mostly light and medium
     crude oil with smaller volumes of synthetic and
     bitumen. (Figure 16)
     The Pipeline Saint-Laurent, links the Jean Gaulin Refinery operated by Valero in Lévis near Quebec City
     to the terminal in Montreal East, supplying the Greater Montreal area with large volumes of RPPs such as
     gasoline, diesel, heating, oil, and jet fuel. In addition, Trans Northern Pipeline transports RPPs from Quebec
     to Ontario.10
     Refineries located in Atlantic Canada almost exclusively rely on imported crude oil from a number of
     different countries supplemented with some east coast production. (Figure 17)
     The Irving Refinery in Saint John, New Brunswick is the largest refinery in Canada, and exports considerable
     volumes of RPPs to the U.S. The Irving refinery is unique compared to refineries because it is a family-owned
     operation with no crude oil production, and a refining and marketing arm.

     10 Due to confidentiality rules, only Quebec data is available.

14   Energy Market Assessment – April 2018
Crude Oil Imports to Central and Eastern Canada
Eastern Canada imports significant volumes of crude oil to meet its refining needs. Each province,
Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Quebec, and Ontario has a diverse crude slate, with imports
in some cases coming from several different countries.
In 2017, Newfoundland and Labrador received almost 60% of its crude oil from the U.S. This is down from
2015, when it received almost all of its imports from the U.S. It also imports crude oil from the United
Kingdom and Angola.
New Brunswick has the most diverse crude slate. In 201711, Saudi Arabia accounts for almost 40% of
New Brunswick’s crude oil imports, followed by Azerbaijan, the United Kingdom, the U.S., and Nigeria.
Quebec receives over 60% of its crude oil imports from the U.S. with lesser volumes from Algeria. U.S.
imports have grown with the reversal of Line 9B.
Ontario receives all of its crude oil imports from the U.S. Most of the U.S. imports come from the states of
Texas, North Dakota, and Indiana.12

  FIGURE 17

  Imports by Eastern Canadian Provinces YTD 201712

                                                                                                         Russian Federation
 100%
                                                                                                         Iraq
  90%                                                                                                    Venezuela
                                                                                                         Argentina
  80%
                                                                                                         Angola

  70%                                                                                                    Brazil
                                                                                                         Kazakhstan
  60%
                                                                                                         Equatorial Guinea

  50%                                                                                                    Congo
                                                                                                         Azerbaijan
  40%                                                                                                    Colombia
                                                                                                         Ivory Coast
  30%
                                                                                                         Saudi Arabia
  20%                                                                                                    Algeria
                                                                                                         Denmark
   10%
                                                                                                         United Kingdom
   0%                                                                                                    Norway
          2015    2016     2017    2015     2016    2017    2015     2016   2017   2015   2016   2017
                                                                                                         Nigeria
                    NL                       NB                       QC                  ON
                                                                                                         United States
   Source:
   Statistics Canada’s Canadian International Merchandise Trade Database

11 Year-To-Date to October 2017.
12 Year-To-Date October 2017.

                                                                                                    Canadian Refinery Overview   15
You can also read