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www.policymagazine.ca September—October 2019
Canadian Politics and Public Policy
Campaign 2019
$6.95 Volume 7 – Issue 5
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5
In This Issue
6 From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald
Campaign 2019
Canadian Politics and 7 Lori Turnbull
The Road to 170
Public Policy
EDITOR AND PUBLISHER 9 John Delacourt
Sunny Ways Redux? Not so Fast
L. Ian MacDonald
lianmacdonald@policymagazine.ca
12 Yaroslav Baran
The Scheer Strength: Relatability
ASSOCIATE EDITOR AND
DEPUTY PUBLISHER
Lisa Van Dusen 15 Brian Topp
The NDP’s Ballot Question
lvandusen@policymagazine.ca
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS
Thomas S. Axworthy,
17 Ziya Tong
Mayday! M’aidez!
Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran,
Derek H. Burney, Catherine Cano,
Margaret Clarke, Celine Cooper,
20Karina Gould
Protecting Elections in a New Threat Environment
Rachel Curran, Susan Delacourt,
Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier, 22 Patrick Gossage
Could it Happen Here?
Martin Goldfarb, Sarah Goldfeder,
Patrick Gossage, Frank Graves,
Shachi Kurl, Brad Lavigne, 25 Don Newman
The ‘Big E’ Election—Energy and the Environment
Kevin Lynch, Jeremy Kinsman,
Andrew MacDougall, Peter Mansbridge,
Carissima Mathen, Velma McColl, 27 Jeremy Kinsman
Being Back: Foreign Policy as a Campaign Issue
David McLaughlin, David Mitchell,
Don Newman, Geoff Norquay,
Fen Osler Hampson, Robin V. Sears, 30 Kevin Page
Is Fiscal Responsibility an Issue in the 2019 Campaign?
Gil Troy, Lori Turnbull, Jaime Watt,
Anthony Wilson-Smith
33 Helaina Gaspard and Emily Woolner
Because it’s 2019: Checking in on Gender Budgeting in Canada
WEB DESIGN
Nicolas Landry
policy@nicolaslandry.ca 36 Peter Mansbridge
The Debate that Changed Debates
SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR
Grace MacDonald
gmacdonald@policymagazine.ca
39 Column / Don Newman
In Case of Minority, Break Glass
GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION
Monica Thomas 40 Shachi Kurl
Could Health Care be on the Ballot Again?
monica@foothillsgraphics.ca
Policy 43 Jan Hux
Canada Has Its Own Diabetes Crisis
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6
From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald
Campaign 2019
W
elcome to our special pre- to get rid of Trudeau since “The short time,” writes Shachi Kurl of the An-
election issue, Campaign road to doing this is to elect a Con- gus Reid Institute, “party leaders find
2019. This full issue on the servative government.” For Elizabeth themselves compelled to say some-
campaign sets the stage for the October May and the Greens, the 2019 elec- thing about our physical well being.”
21 election. It’s all here—the polling, tion represents a moment. As Ziya In a guest column, Diabetes Canada
the policies and the players—at the na- Tong writes, the question is how May President Jan Hux asks whether the
tional level and across the country. will weather the scrutiny. importing of insulin by the U.S. “rais-
I
Our cover package includes looks at es concerns of potential drug shortag-
n the modern era, democracies
the four main parties and their lead- es on this side of the border.” She calls
are aware of threats to their elec-
ers by seasoned strategists. Then we it Canada’s “own diabetes crisis.”
tions, of which the 2016 U.S. elec-
consider the main issues, from cli- tion cycle was the most obvious exam- Most campaigns have defining mo-
mate change and carbon taxes, to ple. Democratic Institutions Minister ments and in the modern Canadian
pipelines. We look at Canadian policy Karina Gould writes of Canada’s pro- political era, none more so than the
keystones, from fiscal frameworks and tective and pre-emptive response. The 1984 leaders’ debate, which changed
health care to foreign policy. Progress other question is whether populism is the rules and rewards of the game. Pe-
on women’s issues is also on the cam- ter Mansbridge captures the drama of
growing in Canada. Patrick Gossage,
paign agenda. the exchange between John Turner
former press advisor to Pierre Trudeau,
Lori Turnbull of Dalhousie Universi- wonders Could it Happen Here? and Brian Mulroney. Taken to task for
ty takes us through a key set of num- a series of deathbed Liberal patronage
One of the mega-issues in this cam- appointments, Turner said lamely: “I
bers, specifically the 170 seats needed
paign is bound to be climate change had no option.” To which Mulroney
to form a majority government in the
and carbon taxes, which Don New- famously replied: “You had an option,
338-seat House. There are many ways
man explores in The ‘Big E’ Election— sir, you could have done better.” His-
to get there, but if they fall short,
Energy and the Environment. tory was made at that moment. Thir-
that’s another story called minority
government. After a 2015 campaign in which fiscal ty-five years on, they still talk about it.
policy played a surprising role, former And, in his regular column. Don
Which brings us to the four main
Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Newman provides a prescription for
parties, their leaders, and what they
Page examines the Trudeau govern- mitigating chaos in the event of a mi-
need to do in the campaign. For Jus-
ment’s record and asks Is Fiscal Respon- nority House.
tin Trudeau, this is not looking like a
sibility an Issue in the 2019 Campaign?
F
campaign of “sunny ways” but one in
inally, we offer timely reviews of
which he will be tested on his record. With gender parity having been a
two important books of this sea-
major theme of the Trudeau govern-
For John Delacourt, former director son. Former Maclean’s Editor-in-
ment’s first term, Helaina Gaspard
of communications of the Liberal Re- Chief Bob Lewis looks at Trudeau: The
and Emily Woolen of the Institute of
search Bureau, this is a test whose out- Education of a Prime Minister and finds
Fiscal Studies and Democracy look at
come should not be taken for granted. that John Ivison’s biography “fair-
Canada’s gender-based analysis in Be-
For Conservative strategist Yaroslav ly bristles with anecdotes and exam-
cause it’s 2019.
Baran, the campaign offers an op- ples of a flawed prime ministry.” And,
portunity to showcase the Scheer Foreign Affairs is a seldom a talk- Robin Sears is struck by the personal
strength, in a manner of speaking, ing point in Canadian campaigns, courage of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh
of the Tory leader. While Trudeau is though it’s never far from voters’ in his autobiography, Love & Courage.
winning the charisma contest, Scheer minds. Our foreign affairs hand, Jer-
In our November-December edition,
could strike a role as the soccer dad. emy Kinsman, sizes up foreign policy
we’ll have our election wrap-up and
Former federal NDP president Brian in this campaign.
analysis of where Canada goes from
Topp writes that there is no point in Health care is back as a ballot ques- here. See you then, and remember
the New Democrats simply running tion. “For the first time in a long to vote.
Policy
7
The Road to 170
It may not be as widely maligned as the Electoral College The magic number for a majority
these days is 170 seats. The House is
south of the border, but Canada’s system of first-past-the- populated according to the consti-
post representation can be equally unrepresentative of the tutional principle of representation
national vote. As Dalhousie University’s Lori Turnbull by population; so, when the parties
are looking at the country’s regions
points out, the key numbers to watch in the run-up to the and provinces to find their prospec-
election are not the national polling spreads but the pro- tive path to a majority government,
size matters. Winning the most seats
vincial breakdowns. in Ontario is more politically lucra-
tive than winning the most seats in
Atlantic Canada. That said, every seat
counts and a small region can be key
Lori Turnbull one another. These polls can be fun to giving a party what it needs to
I
to read, and are indispensable tools meet the threshold for a majority.
n the lead-up to the 2019 gen- for those of us prone to entering of-
eral election, public opinion polls fice election pools, but they must The regional breakdown of the House
remained inconclusive as to also be understood as generalizations of Commons looks like this: Ontario
which party will form a government is the most populous “region” with
that can obscure important realities
and how. The Liberals and the Con- 121 seats; Quebec is second-largest
regarding how the vote will break
servatives were in a statistical tie in with 78 seats; British Columbia elects
down regionally and locally. Again,
terms of national support at 32 vs. 33 42 members of Parliament, Alberta
it’s the seats rather than the votes
per cent, according to polling pub- 34, the Prairies 28, Atlantic Canada
themselves that determine govern-
lished by Abacus on August 19. As we 32, and each territory has one MP.
ment formation, and regional num-
know, however, national support does Historically, the Liberals have domi-
not determine the outcome of an elec- bers paint a more accurate picture
nated in Ontario and Atlantic Cana-
tion. Election results are defined by than national ones.
da, often picking up the majority of
political parties’ shares of the seats in Ontario seats or even all of the seats
the House of Commons; the popular Election results are in the Atlantic region. In 2015, it
vote doesn’t elect anybody. Of course, defined by political took broadcasters virtually no time at
there is a connection between vote
parties’ shares of the seats all to announce that the Liberals had
share and seat share, but the first-past- won all 32 seats in Atlantic Canada
the-post electoral system has the effect in the House of Commons;
(for those of us watching from that
of carving up the national vote into the popular vote doesn’t side of the country, the whole thing
338 constituencies, each with its own elect anybody. was a bit anticlimactic—no matter
election. Whichever candidate comes which party you were supporting.)
first in each riding wins and parties are The previous elections had gone no-
not compensated for any discrepancy where near as well for the Liberals, as
between their share of seats and their the Conservatives and the NDP elect-
portion of the national vote. The le- ed 14 and six MPs respectively and
gitimacy of this system is a continu- For political parties vying for pow- the Liberals elected 12.
al source of debate in Canada, and is er in a parliamentary system such as
T
a topic that is sure to come up in the ours, a majority government is the he likelihood of the Liberals
2019 campaign. holy grail. Equipped with most of sweeping Atlantic Canada
In the public opinion polls published the seats in the House and Canada’s again is low, particularly since
frequently during the pre-election pe- strong tradition of party discipline, a the Conservatives and the NDP both
riod, national support numbers give majority government prime minister have strong roots in the area and will
us a sense of where voters are lean- can govern almost unilaterally and reclaim some of the seats that had
ing and whether parties are growing decisively, without too many obsta- been deemed “safe” for them in previ-
or declining in popularity relative to cles to pursuing the party’s agenda. ous elections. Also, given the success
September/October 2019
8
that the Greens have had in provin-
cial elections in Atlantic Canada, it is
possible that their results could pene-
trate the federal/provincial divide.
As for Ontario, the Liberals blew it in
2011, winning a previously unthink-
able 11 seats. But this requires some
explanation. All three times that Ste-
phen Harper and the Conservatives
formed government (2006, 2008, and
2011), it was with significant support
in Ontario after having merged the
federal right-wing parties, the Progres-
sive Conservatives and the Canadian
Alliance, into one Conservative Par-
ty. In the federal election in 2000, by
comparison, the Liberals elected MPs
in 100 of the province’s then 103 rid-
ings; in 2004, the number dropped to
75 out of 106. Harper’s Conservatives
took 40 Ontario seats to the Liberals’
The Green Chamber in the West Block, where majorities are now made, or not, at 170. House of
54 in 2006, and took the lead in 2008 Commons photo
with 51 Ontario seats compared to the
Liberal’s 38. In 2011, Harper’s only cent of the popular vote in B.C., a few
majority government came with its
It’s possible that
points ahead of the Liberals, with the
strongest showing in Ontario—73 of many Ontario voters NDP and the Greens trailing in the
what was then 108 seats in the prov- will see a Liberal vote as an high teens. The results will depend on
ince. In 2015, the Liberals took the effective way to hold Premier how the votes break down on a con-
lead in the province again with 80 of
Doug Ford in check; this stituency basis.
121 seats. It’s possible that many On-
tario voters will see a Liberal vote as would help the Liberals Perhaps you have noticed that there
an effective way to hold Premier Doug maintain their stronghold in are no seat projections here. That is in-
Ford in check; this would help the Lib- the province, which will be tentional. There are pollsters and data
erals maintain their stronghold in the analysts who are better equipped to
essential to their forming a
province, which will be essential to give you those numbers. I rely on their
their forming a second government.
second government. findings, again, for that office election
Summer polling data favours a first- pool and to get a sense of where vot-
place finish for the Liberals in Ontario. ers’ heads are. It is worth looking into
the regional numbers to get a clearer
Quebec has been key to the success sense of how things will shake out in
of the NDP in recent years, with the al MPs elected in the region in 2015—
four in Alberta, one in Saskatchewan October. The parties can take noth-
party taking 59 of the province’s 75 ing for granted, not even voter turn-
seats in 2011. But that was an histor- and seven in Manitoba—could be vul-
nerable, including in areas like Ed- out. There are fewer committed vot-
ical exception that can be attribut-
ers with every election, which means
ed to a number of factors, including monton and Calgary, from which the
that parties are actively competing for
the unprecedented popularity of the Prime Minister drew cabinet ministers
a greater share of the votes and have
late NDP leader Jack Layton and the and parliamentary secretaries. B.C. is
relatively fewer loyalists who show
collapse of both the Liberals and the often the most difficult region in the
up for them every time. This makes
Bloc Québécois in the province. The country for which to make political
for frantic, compulsive campaigning.
Liberals claimed 40 of Quebec’s 78 predictions. With 42 seats, it is treated
Judging by the numbers over the sum-
seats in 2015, the NDP were reduced as a rich area for growth potential for
mer, it’s possible that no party will get
to 16 and the Conservatives took 12. virtually all parties. In 2015, the Lib-
to 170 seats. In which case, welcome
erals elected 17 MPs, the NDP 14, the
H
to a minority House.
istorically, the Conservatives Conservatives 10 and the Greens 1. All
have dominated in the prai- of them will be looking to make gains. Dr. Lori Turnbull is the Director of
rie provinces and are expect- Summer polling showed the Conser- the School of Public Administration at
ed to do so in 2019. Some of the Liber- vatives in the lead at just over 30 per Dalhousie University.
Policy
9
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau at an election campaign rally in Toronto Centre, 2015. Alex Guibord Flickr photo
Sunny Ways Redux? Not so Fast
The 2015 Liberal campaign that propelled Justin Trudeau John Delacourt
from third place to a decisive majority will go down in
T
he conventional wisdom is
political lore as a textbook, near-seamless race. But as that the October federal elec-
the cliché goes, campaigning and governing are not the tion will be a referendum less
on what the Liberal government
same thing, whether in poetry, prose or spoken word. The has achieved than on Trudeau him-
months between the first 100 days and the last have been self. That will be a frustrating turn
of events for Liberals who point to a
eventful and, as former Liberal advisor John Delacourt strong report card despite challenges
writes, not the stuff of sure things. no one could have predicted. Yet it
has been, as former U.S. Defense Sec-
retary Donald Rumsfeld would say,
the “known unknown” of brand cor-
rosion that has led to this state of
affairs, less the performance of de-
September/October 2019
10
livering a strong mandate than the
It could be argued that, given all that has occurred
unforced errors in management that
have provided Opposition Leader An- over the last four years, a Conservative government
drew Scheer with a very real opportu- would not have fared any better or worse, certainly not in
nity to defeat what seemed an invin- dealing with Trump. In fact, the story of the trade
cible majority four years ago.
negotiations, if it is ever fully told, could reveal how
The Trudeau government came in expertly Trudeau’s team managed the unmanageable.
with a bold agenda, outlined by a
campaign platform that spoke of re-
setting the course of governing on a
number of fronts: Indigenous recon-
ciliation, the environment and cli-
mate change, “Canada’s place in the ed at steel and aluminum produc- purchase it while it was under fur-
world.” Even how Canadians elected tion here in Canada. Strained rela- ther review. It was an outcome that
their members of Parliament would tions with our biggest trading partner seemed to please no one, despite the
be subject to review and study, with required the focus of Trudeau’s PMO stated intention of balancing the
the promise of electoral reform. Fis- and his cabinet, as they sought to concerns of Indigenous communi-
cal prudence and wise management counter any further threats to our in- ties and environmental groups with
of the government’s finances would dustries, not least the auto and agri- the imperatives of economic de-
be affirmed. And guiding it all, the cultural sectors. What was to follow velopment. Yet the final, arguably
priorities of a struggling middle class at the provincial level was the for- more seismic shift for the Trudeau
“and those hoping to join it” were mation of a resurgent Conservative government to contend with came
to be the lodestar for the next four beachhead in Ontario, Saskatchewan, from within, with the SNC-Lavalin
years. This was the broad constitu- Manitoba, New Brunswick and, final- affair creating a rift that led to the
ency Trudeau won over during the ly, Alberta. eventual expulsion from caucus of
2015 campaign. It was an electorate two of Trudeau’s strongest minis-
who, reportedly, from both external ters, Jody Wilson Raybould and Jane
and internal polling, hadn’t felt any With close to Philpott. From the hairline cracks of
measurable improvement in their fi- 300,000 children NAFTA to the emerging fault lines
nances and quality of life, despite at the provincial level to the tecton-
the economy’s slow, steady resur-
lifted out of poverty by the ic shift in fortunes over the last few
gence from the recession of 2008. A Canada Child Benefit and months, who could have predicted
strong trio of initiatives would be put employment numbers for such a turn of events back in 2015?
in place almost immediately: a mid- well-paying, full-time work At least that is the familiar line
dle class tax cut, a Canada Child Ben- of defence.
better than they have been
efit and a revamped Canada Pension
Y
Plan to lay the foundations of long- in decades, those hoping to et all these events do not really
term economic growth for the “min- join the middle class do seem to have been decisive. It
ivan families,” those populating the have better prospects. could be argued that, given
suburbs of Vancouver, Toronto and all that has occurred over the last
Montreal, whom the Trudeau Liber- four years, a Conservative govern-
als had relied on to kick-start their ment would not have fared any bet-
campaign and bring them their re- ter or worse, certainly not in deal-
sounding majority victory. ing with Trump. In fact, the story of
the trade negotiations, if it is ever
Just barely a year into power, the This new coalition put the govern- fully told, could reveal how expert-
ground beneath the government be- ment’s ambitious plan to combat cli- ly Trudeau’s team managed the un-
gan to shift precipitously, and it mate change and reduce greenhouse manageable. And with the dynam-
played out in concentric circles— gas emissions—“the carbon tax”—in ic of the federal government versus
from the international to the inter- its sights. Outlying British Colum- the provinces, at least Trudeau can
governmental and finally at the cab- bia elected an NDP government that notch two Supreme Court victories
inet level—for this government. The was no less congenial, particularly with regard to the implementation
full implications of a Trump presi- on energy sector projects. With the of carbon pricing. Crucially, with
dency came to the fore with the re- Trans Mountain pipeline project, this comparative argument of imag-
negotiations of the North American initially supported by Trudeau and ining the other party in power, the
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and suddenly put in jeopardy by B.C.’s Conservatives may have also fol-
the implementation of tariffs target- new government, Ottawa opted to lowed international precedent and
Policy11
implemented the deferred prosecu- followed by the Aga Khan vacation throughout the worst of it. Though
tion agreement when faced with the and then the perceived unserious ap- Trudeau has taken the hit through
prospect of an employer like SNC- proach to bilateral relations with the this steady decline in his approval
Lavalin no longer being eligible for India trip, there has been more than numbers, this has really been about
procurement contracts. The stron- enough kryptonite to go around. how Trudeau’s team has governed,
gest defence is less conjectural; the Those minivan families could look not what they can say they’ve deliv-
Liberals have “gotten the big things to each development and wonder ered for Canadians. The worst traits
right” for growth and development. just how much this government re- of this government, much like the
With close to 300,000 children lifted ally understood their lives and pri- best—its innovative and thought-
out of poverty by the Canada Child orities. And as for the mitigating ful policy making—were forged in
Benefit and employment numbers measures to address risks like these, the blast furnace of an election cam-
for well-paying, full-time work bet- there is no effective empowerment paign, yet every campaign is unfor-
ter than they have been in decades, of Trudeau’s front bench to com- tunately very different, and the al-
those hoping to join the middle municate—or indeed personify—the chemy that created one majority
class do have better prospects. All of government’s progressive mandate. victory can rarely guarantee even an
these factors should be more than “Make the message your own” is the eked out minority victory the next
consolation, they should be buoy- mantra of Ottawa media trainers for time around.
ing the Liberals’ prospects for an- a reason. A telltale sign this wasn’t
going to be carried too far occurred If the Trudeau government only
other mandate. However, it is the
lasts as long as one mandate, the
approval numbers on Trudeau him- when, recovering from the nadir of
question of how the brand and is-
self, which have been in a steady de- Bill Morneau’s management of his
sues have been managed will have
cline, that truly weigh the heaviest small business tax cut controver-
proven to be their undoing. It will
on the minds of those contemplat- sy, Trudeau himself took questions
have been less those “events, dear
ing the campaign ahead. for the Finance Minister—standing
boy” that took up so much oxygen
right beside him.
This was the known unknown back in question period, or in the negoti-
in 2015. There was a cautionary tone ations in Washington or First Minis-
established, and at least a stated The next four years ters’ meetings. And even if the Liber-
means to address the moment if and were about als win another mandate, a minority
government should be viewed as a
when the shine started to come off decentralizing the issues
Trudeau. His team knew from poll- defeat, if not a reckoning, for the
management and the decision-making that diminished
ing that the middle class branding of
the government had to be sacrosanct. messaging so that if the such a powerful reserve of political
Any apparent deviation was, as one shine was off the PM, the capital.
advisor told me, “like kryptonite;” team branding would John Delacourt, Vice President and
Canadians would punish Trudeau already be in place as a Group Leader for Hill and Knowlton’s
himself for signs of hypocrisy in this
regard. And they had on the face of it
countervailing factor. public affairs practice in Ottawa, is a
former director of communications for
a contingency plan; what would help
the Liberal Research Bureau and the
prevent too much slippage in the
author of three books.
polls, if such kryptonite were uncov-
ered, was a cabinet and caucus fully
empowered to communicate the gov-
ernment’s mandate effectively, using The default position in crisis, de-
the strategic thinking and 2.0 tactics veloped during the 2015 campaign,
on social media that were so effective was that if you let Trudeau “sell” the
for Trudeau himself in the campaign. merchandise in the store no one’s
The next four years were about de- buying, his charisma would win out.
centralizing the issues management More damaging than this approach
and the messaging so that if the shine moreover, if there is anything about
was off the PM, the team branding the SNC-Lavalin issue that does
would already be in place as a coun- still resonate, it is the impression of
tervailing factor. how little agency cabinet members
had in the face of a phalanx of un-
And this is where promise was nev- elected advisors to the prime minis-
er really fulfilled. From the moving ter steering the course of action and
expenses debacle with some of this keeping Trudeau himself looking
government’s most senior advisors, like a remote but complicit figure
September/October 201912
Andrew Scheer flipping pancakes at the Cenovus Energy Stampede breakfast in Calgary in July 2019. Just an ordinary guy. Flickr photo
The Scheer Strength: Relatability
Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer heads into this elec- Yaroslav Baran
P
tion without the baggage of his predecessor, Stephen arties don’t win elections—gov-
Harper. As longtime Conservative strategist Yaroslav ernments lose elections. The as-
sumption in Canada’s politi-
Baran points out, he’s not likely to win a charisma contest
cal culture is that change does not
against Justin Trudeau but he can claim the mantle of come about from some grand new vi-
Canada’s soccer dad at a time when context could make sion that captures the public imagin-
ation, but from a collective sense—
it an exploitable advantage.
sometimes sooner and sometimes
later—that it’s time to “throw the
bums out.”
Yes, there are things Opposition par-
ties can do to hasten a government’s
demise: good “opposition research”
or “oppo”, clever issue positioning,
or skillful illumination of the incum-
bent’s flaws of competence or ethics.
When that happens, the logical al-
ternative gets a turn. Historically and
Policy13
with few exceptions, it has been the There are things Opposition parties can do to hasten
Liberals and Conservatives alternat-
ing occupancy of the roles of prime
a government’s demise: good ‘opposition research’
minister and leader of the Oppo- or ‘oppo’, clever issue positioning, or skillful illumination of
sition. This pattern—and current the incumbent’s flaws of competence or ethics.
polls—suggest the prime minister-
ship is Andrew Scheer’s for the tak-
ing, sooner or later. The chief threat
for Opposition leaders, whoever they
may be, is that their own party mem- advantage. The ongoing saga of the right path. His embrace of Big Milk
bers grow impatient with their leader Trans Mountain pipeline, if played is a good start, inoculating against
more quickly than the public grows right by all Opposition parties, should a neo-conservative libertarian straw
weary with the incumbent. Mean- have a centrifugal effect on the elector- man as a threat to supply manage-
while, they don’t have to do much ate. For pipeline opponents, the script ment. Other issues will be more chal-
other than remain inoffensive, wait- is that the Liberals are false environ- lenging: the asylum seeker question
ing in the wings, ready to take over mentalists—they talk a good game, is a balance beam, with political per-
when it’s their turn. but then go and cut deals to build il on each side. Many Quebecers are
So what does Andrew Scheer need pipelines. For pipeline supporters, the rightly displeased with the ongoing
to do? What is the key to capitaliz- script is just as simple: they promised a exploitation of a loophole that has
ing on current polls, which suggest pipeline, and there’s no pipeline. upended our asylum system. Com-
the public is almost as tired of Justin passion coupled with orderly queues
Trudeau after four years as it was of and due process is a legitimate posi-
For pipeline tion. In fact, it is politically unassail-
Stephen Harper after nine? A num-
ber of regional dynamics in vote-rich
opponents, the able. But if tempered with charged
areas present opportunities, but also script is that the Liberals language or anything that smacks of
some delicate challenges, for Scheer. are false environmentalists— distrusting foreigners, the Conserva-
Atlantic Canada, British Columbia, tives risk losing three votes in Ontario
they talk a good game, but
Quebec, and Ontario all have many or B.C. for each voter they appease in
seats up for grabs if we believe the
then go and cut deals to Quebec. Scheer did an excellent job
latest polling. build pipelines. For pipeline in articulating his Immigration poli-
supporters, the script is cy through his five-part spring speech
In Newfoundland, the government’s series. All the balances were struck.
unfriendliness to oil and gas—the just as simple: they promised
He needs to keep this balance—not
sector that turned the province’s a pipeline, and there’s only he, but all his candidates.
economy around—should be a Lib- no pipeline.
eral liability. A gentle, friendly, non- Current poling suggests the Conserva-
confrontational nudge should be all tives have up to 20 seats open to them
that’s required to tilt the vote blue. in Quebec. There is no reason they
In the Maritimes and in Labrador, cannot and should not do even bet-
the biggest challenge for Scheer is to ter. Scheer cannot turn himself into a
It doesn’t have to be a brash, Alber- Quebecer; and he is running against
demonstrate that he understands the
ta-first message; it just takes an un- one. But the key to winning Quebec
East—that he isn’t a continuation of
apologetic—yet respectful—message is remaining true to himself and not
the Reform Party genes that evalu-
that an Andrew Scheer government
ate Canada through a Prairie-centric overthinking his strategy. In almost
believes in diversity when it comes
lens. For an Ottawa native represent- all regions outside downtown Mon-
to our energy sector. Yes, we will in-
ing a Saskatchewan riding, that will treal, Quebecers tend to be small-c
vest in renewables R&D. And, yes—
mean strong candidates, household conservatives in their values and out-
we will also get Canada’s fossil fuels
name candidates, frequent visits, and look. Scheer embodies these values in
to market. Because nation-building
a demonstrated understanding of the a moderate and reasonable way. As
shouldn’t be about winners and los-
vernacular of regional issues: cod, they get to know him, a great many
ers—it’s about mutual accommoda-
crab, quota, shipbuilding, tourism, Quebeckers will see their own reflec-
tion, forward thinking, wise invest-
energy, and a grasp of the principle tion in him. That means exposure.
ments, and respect.
of reciprocation: you have my back, Lots of it. And just being himself.
Q
I’ll have yours.
uebec is an equally chal- Ontario offers a similar challenge
British Columbia has often been un- lenging arena, with more and opportunity. Again, Scheer needs
predictable electorally, but its volatil- parties and greater politi- only to be himself—the normal, “guy
ity can be harnessed to a challenger’s cal complexity, but Scheer is on the next door” soccer dad. The biggest
September/October 201914
liability in Ontario is Premier Doug Scheer should be held to a higher that risk discrediting the party with
Ford. The premier has demonstrated bar? Maybe, maybe not. It doesn’t other voters.
that Ontario—even inner-Toronto— matter. A failure to recognize reality
is accessible to the Tory brand, yet Then there is climate change. Carbon
could be politically deadly.
his polling is currently abysmal. The pricing will be a dominant election
theme, with both the Liberals and
good news in this for Scheer is that You go be the sexy Conservatives using it as a wedge. The
the two men couldn’t be more differ-
ent. Ford is known for his brash style,
playboy, jet-setting Liberal script is already on display: an
impulsive decision-making, and with celebrities. That’s fine. equation of their carbon tax with car-
oversimplification of public policy. I’ll be the barbecue dad next ing about climate change. And it’s
clever positioning. The Conservatives’
Scheer, in contrast, is more reserved, door, cargo jeans and
thoughtful, and about as non-bom- response must be equally clever. They
hamburger flipper to boot. know that Canadians hate taxes—
bastic as they come, criticized often
from within for being “too boring”. And let’s have a discussion hence the anti-carbon tax message.
Bring it. That is precisely what Ontar- for 36 days about who gets The Conservatives must also, however,
ian voters are in the mood for. the middle class—and those convince Canadians they care about
climate change and are committed to
This brings us to the principal threat working hard to join it. fighting it. The winning message is an
Scheer faces: weathering an aggressive evolution of the one the Conserva-
smear campaign designed to demon- tives have already started: “There are
ize him while his name recognition two ways to address climate change.
is still relatively low with the public. The Liberals have chosen a carbon tax
The themes are entirely predictable: The Conservative machine will also
that penalizes consumers—people like
xenophobia, Islamophobia, abortion, have to develop a sharper instinct
Sally who buys groceries and drives
and climate change. The Liberal cam- for tone in sensitive circumstanc-
her kids to soccer and piano. That’s
paign will throw tremendous energy es. Scheer was criticized for having
a legitimate approach, and that’s the
and advertising behind this effort. In failed to mention Islamophobia fol-
Liberals’ choice. We believe in the ap-
fact, it has already started. lowing the Christchurch mass mur-
proach taken by people like Barack
der in New Zealand. His tweet was,
An unfortunate fact for Scheer is that Obama and Stephen Harper—regulat-
in fact, almost identical to Gover-
he bears the legacy of damage that ing emission caps on the actual emit-
nor General Julie Payette’s, which
others before him did to the Conserva- ters. We believe in going after the ac-
also fell short of using the term.
tive brand. This includes miscues and tual polluters.”
She, however, does not have to bear
inept policy proposals from the 2015 the legacy of Kellie Leitch, the 2015 Scheer was elected speaker of the
Conservative campaign, such as the Tory campaign, and other contribu- House of Commons by his peers. He
barbaric cultural practices snitch line tors to the Conservative Party’s rep- was trusted by members of all politi-
that widely flopped as a veiled Islam- utation on tolerance. Andrew Scheer cal parties to preside over parliamen-
ophobic dog whistle. It also includes does. And his team needs to under- tary proceedings with fairness and re-
the legacy of the recent Tory leader- stand this. spect. These character traits are key to
ship race, which resurfaced (albeit by
Conservative parties have rightly rec- his personality, as attested by those
Scheer’s opponents) issues such as
ognized a need to offer hope to com- who have known him a long time. He
abortion and a Canadian values test.
munities, neighbourhoods and demo- will not win a charisma war with Jus-
The sooner Scheer recognizes that this
baggage is real, that he did not inherit graphics left behind by a relocation of tin Trudeau. He also doesn’t have to.
the party throne with a clean slate, the manufacturing or decline in resource His folksy and shy relatability could
better for his 2019 prospects. development. Think Hamilton, allow him to judo Trudeau’s charisma
Welland, Windsor, New Glasgow.... and international star power against
R
And often, such communities feel him: You go be the sexy playboy, jet-
eal politics now demands that
talked down to by well-meaning but setting with celebrities. That’s fine. I’ll
he overcorrect for these trans-
disconnected Liberal elites. This is a be the barbecue dad next door, cargo
gressions of others. In a recent
speech, he signaled that he will have political opportunity, but the chal- jeans and hamburger flipper to boot.
no tolerance for anyone running lenge is to offer blueprints for eco- And let’s have a discussion for 36 days
under his banner exhibiting intol- nomic and social revival, but to do so about who gets the middle class—and
erant views. He said he would show “credibly”, and without oversimplifi- those working hard to join it.
them the door. He will have to. In cation, anti-intellectualism or tonal Contributing Writer Yaroslav Baran,
fact, he may have to expel several anti-elitism, and without resorting to a partner at Earnscliffe Strategy Group
candidates over future eruptions to disingenuous promises, protection- in Ottawa, is a Conservative advisor
demonstrate he is serious. Is it fair ism or environmental regressiveness and strategist.
Policy15
The NDP’s Ballot Question
In its post-Layton, post-Mulcair incarnation, the federal But framing the election as a crusade
to rid Canada of Justin Trudeau would
NDP has been feeling its way through something of an likely not work with New Democrat
identity crisis. This has not been helped by the fact that voters, precisely because they under-
stand that the short road to doing
many of its traditional electoral strengths have been ab- this is to elect a Conservative gov-
sorbed by rival parties. Can Jagmeet Singh break the cycle ernment. In this era of Trump, Ford
by making the 2019 election about inequality? and Kenney (political characters that
New Democrats view as interchange-
able), that is the last thing NDP vot-
ers want to see. So making the elec-
tion explicitly about getting rid of
Brian Topp get each and every year, come what
may. That would not be Prime Minis- Trudeau, whatever it takes, would
G
oing into the fall 2019 federal ter Singh’s view. likely suppress the NDP vote and flip
election campaign, it isn’t cross-pressured NDP/Liberal voters to
Second, the federal NDP likely can’t
too hard to come up with a vote Liberal, as they did in 2015.
successfully frame the election as be-
list of things Jagmeet Singh’s federal Third, the federal NDP also probably
ing about who can best get rid of Jus-
New Democrats can’t do. can’t successfully frame the election
tin Trudeau.
First, the federal New Democrats can’t as being about who can stop Andrew
run to the right of the Liberals on fis- Sheer and the Conservatives. The
cal and economic policy. The federal Framing the election short road to stopping the populist
party’s unwise decision to try this dur- as a crusade to rid rightwing haters is to re-elect the Lib-
ing the 2015 campaign federal made Canada of Justin Trudeau erals. So, if the most important issue
the New Democrats look like a party facing Canada is to protect women,
of continuity with Stephen Harper’s
would likely not work with new Canadians, gay people and First
austerity policies—quite an accom- New Democrat voters, Nations from Andrew Scheer and his
plishment for the NDP, but possibly precisely because they dream team of strategists from Ezra
not one they were looking for. understand that the short Levant’s hate site, Mr. Trudeau goes
into the campaign in a better posi-
In Canada and around the democratic road to doing this is to elect tion to do so.
world, voters have had enough of Rea-
a Conservative government.
gan-Thatcher austerity policies, and Fourth, the federal NDP probably
the consequent rise of a grotesque, un- can’t turn the 2019 election into a
stable and unsustainable inequality. referendum about climate change.
So nobody runs on those policies any- This is an awkward topic for this
more. Not even Conservatives, who writer to talk to you about, gen-
instead now cheerfully propose end- tle reader, because Jagmeet Singh’s
less deficits in order to cut taxes for If Canadians really want to get rid of NDP has decided to explicitly repu-
rich people. It is also true that math- Justin Trudeau as their sole and top diate the policies of the Notley Al-
ematics haven’t been abolished. There priority, the short road to doing so is berta NDP government, which I had
are limits to all things, including pub- to vote Conservative. There is a cer- a hand in developing.
lic borrowing. But that was not the fo- tain familiarity to federal politics in
D
cus of federal politics in 2015 and it 2019. Trudeaumania has once again uring her term, Premier Ra-
probably won’t be in 2019. proved to be a one-shot phenom- chel Notley offered Canada
Jagmeet Singh’s NDP has therefore enon, as it was between 1968 and a grand bargain whereby Al-
repudiated Thomas Mulcair’s core be- 1972. And so a first-term Trudeau berta would: cap the expansion of
lief in politics—the former leader’s government once again faces the emissions from the oil sands; im-
view that any and all party principles challenge of giving Canadians a rea- plement a universal carbon price;
and election commitments are con- son to vote for them other than ce- and eliminate Alberta’s heavy de-
tingent on balancing the federal bud- lebrity excitement over the leader. pendence on coal-fired electricity as
September/October 201916
quickly as possible in favour of re- this election is, why do Liberals and
newables—all steps that would slow Conservatives keep making life easier
and then begin to reduce Alberta’s for the rich—and harder for the rest
carbon emissions, which were grow- of us?” This campaign frame gets us
ing uncontrollably. And which, with- back to the painful lesson of 2015.
out these policies, would have (and Voters—certainly any voters willing
may again) made it absolutely impos- to consider voting NDP under Jag-
sible for Canada to meet its interna- meet Singh—are looking for an al-
tional carbon emission targets. ternative to austerity policies that fa-
In return, Notley asked the rest of Can- vour the few and betray the many.
ada to allow Alberta better access to an Most Canadian families can see them-
ocean port, so that Alberta could sell selves in that question. Most Cana-
its more limited energy production dian families live the experience of
into the world market for its full price. needing two or three incomes to make
The Trudeau government took Notley ends meet. Of creeping precarious em-
up on this bargain, made it the core of ployment, everywhere. And of every-
a federal climate leadership plan cen- one with a claim on their income—
tred on a federal carbon price, and in- the mortgage bank or the landlord,
vested in the Trans Mountain pipe-
the grocery store, the phone company
line to meet its terms. However, for
and the gas company—getting regu-
reasons of politics and principle that
lar raises at their expense. While most
have an undeniable integrity to many Jagmeet Singh, positioning the NDP on its own
ballot question for winning the campaign. people haven’t had a real raise them-
of its urban voters in British Colum- Wayne Polk Flickr photo selves in a generation. While many
bia, the British Columbia NDP of Pre-
have seen their jobs shipped overseas,
mier John Horgan has mounted a de-
Notley’s grand bargain and Horgan’s with minimum wage work in retail
termined and high-decibel campaign
B.C.-first LNG plan, the federal NDP beckoning as an alternative… maybe.
against all of this, and in favour of the
status quo. And after a period of un- is going into the 2019 campaign with Trump spoke to working American
happy prevarication, the federal NDP an uncompromising green agenda families about these themes, and per-
has decided to follow this lead. that repeats the views of the world’s suaded them he cared more about
most committed and alarmed climate them than Hillary Clinton and the
Mulcair was unpopular with Alber-
change campaigners. Democrats did. Other populists on
ta New Democrats, who never for-
gave him for musing that Canada has Having done this, the Singh New the right are now following suit—and
“Dutch disease” because of the mone- Democrats almost certainly can’t offering their solutions, which are
tary and fiscal consequences of being make it the core of their appeal. Be- about doubling down on the fiscal
an all-your-eggs-in-one-basket ma- cause if they convince their own vot- and economic policies that created all
jor energy exporter. This interesting ers that climate change is the single of this, while bashing your neighbour
piece of punditry did not go over well most important thing that must be because she is from Syria.
in Alberta. But to his very great credit, addressed now, quite a few of them
Jagmeet Singh’s NDP are hoping to
Mulcair attempted to walk a fine and might well vote for the Green Par-
make the election about these issues,
balanced line between these contend- ty. If the next election is about a sin-
too. The trick is going to be to get
ing western regions and NDP govern- gle issue, there is a single-issue party
voters to ask themselves that ques-
ments, mindful of the fundamental available on this issue.
tion, without being distracted by the
duty of federal leaders and parties to
S
other questions discussed above. If
find themes that bring Canadians in o, if the Singh NDP’s campaign
Jagmeet Singh succeeds in doing this,
different regions together instead of can’t be about flanking the Lib-
he’ll prove—not for the first time in
dividing them. erals on the right on fiscal and
recent federal political history—that
economic issues; probably can’t be
Here again, Jagmeet Singh’s NDP the leader of the third party has been
about getting rid of Trudeau; can’t
has repudiated their former feder- underestimated.
be about stopping the populist right-
al leader—and the Notley NDP. In-
wing haters; and can’t only or prin- Brian Topp is a partner at KTG Public
deed, in some of their statements Affairs, a fellow at the Public Policy
cipally be about flanking the Liberals
about fracked natural gas and the Forum, a director on the board of the
on the left on climate change poli-
infrastructure required to develop Broadbent Institute, and is teaching a
cy—what can it be about?
B.C.’s LNG industry, the Singh feder- course at the Max Bell School of Public
al NDP is throwing the Horgan B.C. Going into the campaign, Jagmeet Policy at McGill University. He served
NDP government into the repudia- Singh and his team were getting as chief of staff to Alberta Premier
tion bin for good measure. In lieu of ready to ask this: “The question in Rachel Notley.
Policy17
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May. Her showing up for the job has made the Greens competitive in Campaign 2919. Green Party of Canada photo
Mayday! M’aidez!
In mid-August, The Hill Times ran a cartoon by Michael Ziya Tong
“H
de Adder of Green Party Leader Elizabeth May with the alf the job is showing
thought bubble ‘I must be doing something right’…her up,” you’ve likely heard it
said. And yet, in the po-
back covered with Post-It notes saying ‘Kick me’. The
litical arena, it’s stunning when
image pricelessly captured May’s pre-election moment this most basic of requirements is
as a longtime advocate mainstreamed by events, whose shrugged off. It’s still harder to swal-
low when the issue at hand is a na-
principle on one of the most urgent issues of our time has
tional emergency.
suddenly put her in the political crosshairs.
An emergency in any other context
would signal, at minimum, the follow-
ing: 1) An alarm, or repeated alarms to
give notice to the public 2) An imme-
diate mandate to respective agencies
to initiate plans and procedures for an
urgent response, and 3) Deployment
and action of expert teams.
And yet nothing in present-day Can-
ada even hints at the fact that we are
September/October 201918
in the midst of an emergency. In- May is also fearless when it counts. She is a known
stead, on June 17th, 2019—the day
cage-rattler in the House of Commons, with a
the House of Commons passed a
motion declaring a national climate record of speaking out in Parliament on unpopular
emergency—Justin Trudeau, Jag- topics—which, in turn, has boosted her public image.
meet Singh and Andrew Scheer were
all at the Raptors parade in Toronto,
cheering and smiling for the camer-
as rather than tackling the less glitzy
job of public policy. More egregious
though, is that the party leaders of which, in turn, has boosted her pub- ice—drained off Greenland’s ice sheet
the Liberals, NDP and Conservatives lic image. in a single day. We had not expect-
did not even vote. Only one federal ed to see melt levels like these until
leader was present at the debates that But as all policy wonks know, effective
2070. Calling the situation serious is
day to discuss the single, most press- leadership requires more than charis-
an understatement.
ing issue of our time. That leader was ma. Our priority now as a country is
Elizabeth May. to find a leader with a solid plan. At So how serious are the federal par-
this critical juncture, we need some- ties’ plans? To start, Prime Minister
This is not the only time May has one who can make bold reparations Trudeau has been invited to attend
shown up solo. Just one month lat- for our nation’s historic injustices, the UN Climate Summit on Septem-
er at the 40th annual general assem- while at the same time crafting a vi- ber 23, 2019 to support the New Deal
bly of the Assembly of First Nations, sionary and inclusive plan that will for Nature and People. All eyes should
again, May was the only federal lead- ensure a secure and sustainable future be on Trudeau because this a criti-
er present. Although high priority is for all Canadians. cal opportunity for Canada to step
placed on reconciliation and Indige- up. The ticket to entry, according
nous relations in governing rhetoric, to UN Chief Antonio Guterres, is a
here, before an audience of a thou-
As I write these
concrete plan to reach carbon neu-
sand people, those hollow words words, an trality by 2050. Guterres stipulates
collapsed. Chiefs, insulted by the unprecedented and massive that world leaders should come pre-
fact that the politicians did not have meltdown—12.5 billion tons pared with real strategies, and not
the time in their schedules to show just “beautiful speeches.” So the
of ice—drained off
up demanded, “Where is your lead- question is: will Trudeau show up?
er?” Their disappointment and an- Greenland’s ice sheet in a If he does, it will mean outlining a
ger of course, was justified. After all, single day. We had not far bolder plan than what the Liber-
what is a nation-to-nation relation- expected to see melt levels als have previously set forth. Given
ship based on “rights, respect, coop- like these until 2070. Calling the current rate of emissions decline
eration and partnership” when the under the Pan-Canadian Framework,
leaders of the nation called Canada
the situation serious is an it’s been calculated that it would
were not even there? understatement. take one thousand years to reach
Canada’s 2050 target. You read that
There is a good reason we are seeing
correctly: one thousand years. When
Elizabeth May shine now. Much of it
put into perspective it becomes clear
has to do with her unrelenting work
that incrementalism of this kind is
A
ethic, which began when the “Green
not climate leadership. It’s a death
wave” was just a ripple. The activist,
sentence.
author, mother and former lawyer nd, we do not have much time.
has also flourished beyond Ottawa’s As the Liberals like to point out how-
circles by coming across as the “non- According to the United Nations lat- ever, at least they “have a plan with
politician” politician. As the Green est IPCC report, which is based on targets.” And here, they should be
Party Leader for the past 13 years, the most reputable science avail- commended for the hard work of
she’s brandished a simple method of able, we have 11 years left to avert putting a price on carbon. In terms
cutting through political BS: support catastrophic damage to our already of greenhouse gas pollution, An-
science, be honest and have integrity. fragile ecosystems, and a mere 17 drew Scheer’s Real Plan to Protect Our
Importantly though, May is also fear- months for global leaders to agree Environment would haul the coun-
less when it counts. She is a known upon achievable targets leading up try backward. The plan itself has no
cage-rattler in the House of Com- to COP 26 in 2020. As I write these emissions targets at all (To consid-
mons, with a record of speaking out words, an unprecedented and mas- er how absurd that is, try to imag-
in Parliament on unpopular topics— sive meltdown—12.5 billion tons of ine a CEO putting forward a business
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