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Brazilian War School (ESG) Center for Strategic Studies Marechal Cordeio de Farias OMNIDEF ANALYSIS YEAR 4 EDITION 5 – JUNE 2021 ISSN: 2595 -9212
Center for Strategic Studies Marechal Cordeiro de Farias ISSN 2595-9212 BRAZILIAN W AR COLLEGE MONTHLY NEW SLETTER Highlights Highlights SECURITY AND DEFENSE PUBLIC POLICIES The OMNIDEF ANALYSIS is a monthly GEOPOLITICS AND STRATEGIC SECTORS publication with analyses* about themes The employment • Security, Defense ofandtheDevelopment Brazilian Armedfrom addressed in the previous month of Forces inIntegration Regional support ofProcesses: containment measures Spillover Effects ofonthe theAfrican COVID-19 pandemic Continental Free Trade Agreement OMNIDEF and identified as the most (AfCFTA) relevant for the National Defense context. Editorial Body Editor: Ricardo A. Fayal Editor Auxiliar: Gabriela Paulucci da HoraViana Related Videos José Martins Rodrigues Junior Conselho Editorial: Antonio dos Santos; African Continental Free Trade Ricardo Alfredo de Assis Fayal; Area: 38 Countries Have Ratified Ricardo Rodrigues Freire Agreement To access this video, CLICK HERE Auxiliares de Tradução: Juliana de Souza Clos Lucas Gabriel Rego Muniz Rafael Esteves Gomes What is the potential of AfCFTA? To access this video, CLICK HERE Researchers of the Edition Guilherme Lopes da Cunha - PhD in International Political Economy from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). Adjunct Professor at the Brazilian War College. Mozambique: U.N. Concerned Fábio Albergaria de Queiroz - PhD in International Relations About Civilians Safety from the University of Brasília (UnB). Adjunct professor at the To access this video, CLICK HERE Brazilian War College. *The information contained here does not necessarily reflect the view of the Ministry of Defense, of the Brazilian War College, of the Center for Strategic Studies Marechal Cordeiro de Farias and/or of their members. There is no responsibility of the Brazilian War College on outside websites that may be accessed by links or any means included in this newsletter. OMNIDEF ANALYSIS – YEAR 4 EDITION 5 – JUNE 2021
OMNIDEF ANALYSIS PAGE 3 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2595 - 9212 MARECHAL CORDEIO DE FARIAS GEOPOLÍTICA E SETORES ESTRATÉGICOS Security, Defense and Development from Regional Integration Processes: Spillover Effects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA)1 Authors: Guilherme Lopes da Cunha2; Fábio Albergaria de Queiroz3 1.Introduction The African continent has been the stage of intense transformations. In the last 500 years, the gradual intensity of globalization, broadening the interaction among the peoples of the planet, has not rarely left traces of inequality (SANTOS, 2000), insecurity (NAIM, 2006) and underdevelopment (FUKUYAMA, 2005). In some environments, such as the African continent, these systemic disparities have contributed to a complex international insertion profile, whose difficulties have been evidenced through formal or veiled subordination. The current restructuring that has taken place, involving various internal and external power vectors, indicates potential changes on the continent. On the external axis, the withering away, the emergence, or the consolidation of the influence of extra-regional countries in the African political orbit delineate a dispute that, today, can either encourage or slow down progress on the continent. On the internal axis, there is a reorganization process that defines priorities and creates windows of opportunity to promote audacious regional integration, combining the plurality of intraregional interests with new spaces to generate progress, whose spillover effect has the potential to improve security, defense, and development mechanisms. In this context, it is worth investigating what can be expected from this composition from a strategic perspective. To what extent can the new integrationist dynamics have implications for security, defense, and development? Would there be conditions to unleash this virtuous spiral in an autochthonous way? The objective of the analysis is, therefore, to verify the characteristics of this integration dynamics, considering its unfoldings in the security, defense and development sectors, evaluating, concomitantly, how (in)dispensable the interactions with external powers are in reaching the goals and verifying eventual externalities of this process for Brazilian interests. 2. Africa in the world and the search for its own path. The recent history of the African continent has as one of its main marks the extraterritorial intervention. The international system was reconfigured, consolidating the links between power and wealth (BRAUDEL, 2009) 1The opinions expressed are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the War College and/or the Brazilian Ministry of Defense 2PhD in International Political Economy from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). Adjunct Professor at the War College. 3PhD in International Relations from the University of Brasília (UnB). Adjunct professor at the War College. Year 4 Edition 5 – June 2021 [continues]
OMNIDEF ANALYSIS PAGE 4 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2595 - 9212 MARECHAL CORDEIO DE FARIAS GEOPOLÍTICA E SETORES ESTRATÉGICOS and, at the same time, boosting the technological innovation sector associated with the trinomial security, defense and development (KENNEDY, 1989; LANDES, 1969). Thus, this strategic triad gains notable expression over time. On the one hand, the past reveals a trajectory that goes through advances and setbacks, as can be seen in: the seizure of Ceuta (1415), an ignition factor that shifted the axis of power from the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to the Atlantic, converting the Mediterranean into a sea of transit (CASTRO, 1981, p.17); in the contour of the Cape of Good Hope, resignifying the importance of the Indian Ocean, through the Atlantic protagonism in the international system (PANIKKAR, 1977, p.41); in the realization of the Berlin Conference (1884), whose effects of its General Act operationalized the concept of Logical Structure, justifying interventions, reinforcing colonizing imperialism and presenting an International Law amid a regime of perverse content (CRAVEN, 2015, p.58). On the other hand, the trinomial brings new impulses in contemporary times. If the Cold War made Africa one of its favorite stages - triggering internal conflicts and subversion, in the midst of independence processes (FACINA and CASTRO, 2006), and condemning the continent to the condition of orphan, in the context of the collapse of real socialism (MOURÃO, 1997; 2006) - in the 21st century, a rationale emerges, under different degrees of intransigence, as complemented by VIZENTINI (2007, p.203) when he asserts that: “The end of bipolarity and the East-West conflict, aggravated by the disappearance of the Soviet Union in late 1991, caused the African continent to lose its strategic importance and bargaining capacity, to which was added the loss of economic importance itself (...) The result was the marginalization of Africa in the international system and the de-strategization and tribalization of conflicts and regional politics. African societies are going through a process similar to the one other regions of the world have gone through, namely the construction of modern nation-states.” Therefore, the consolidation and maturation of these states converges with the formation of regional integration projects, the greatest example of which is the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). However, despite the legitimacy and the Pan-Africanist sentiment, does Africa have the capacity to resort to its own means? Historical evidence indicates that foreign aid is an indispensable ingredient for overcoming structural bottlenecks, and that other conditions should be considered in the equation, the main one being the economic- financial contribution of exogenous powers, formerly the United States and Europe, and today, with clear contours, China. Although the United States and European countries have a traditional historical presence, there is no trace that they can lead initiatives or drive processes as Africa needs. For Yotova (2021) the EU plans a strategic partnership based on redesigning the Cotonou Agreement4 and building a framework for cooperation 4According to the European Commission (2020), in 2018, discussions began on the Cotonou Agreement (2000), which marked out the European Union's relations with the countries of the then ACP Group, now the EACP (Organization of African, Caribbean and Pacific States) and which provided for a re-examination by 2020. The Post Cotonou Agreement has been concluded and is in the final stage of procedural steps, whose priority areas are human rights, democracy and governance, peace and security, human development, environmental sustainability, climate change, sustainable development and growth, and migration and mobility (EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2021) Year 4 Edition 5 – June 2021 [continues]
OMNIDEF ANALYSIS PAGE 5 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2595-9212 MARECHAL CORDEIO DE FARIAS GEOPOLÍTICA E SETORES SECURITY AND DEFENSE ESTRATÉGICOS PUBLIC POLICIES on migration. Pari passu, Biden's United States reassesses the low priority of Africa under Trump; for Soest (2021), the structure of relations with the Continent remains: security, climate change, diseases, and market access5. These are relevant initiatives, but they do not support the development desired by Africans. As for China, there is another assertiveness profile in Africa. Production and management models are being improved. The traditional Special Economic Zones (SEZ) are being structured and converted into Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones (OECCZ), "The Nest of the Phoenix“6, a new generation of export platforms. Science and Industry Technology Parks are encouraged (WALCOTT, 2002; DAS and LAM, 2016). Labor-intensive manufacturing plants are moved from China to Africa due to low wages (DOMINGUEZ, 2018). The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) is created7, enhancing dialogue, proposing the Five No's Policy and the Eight Initiatives for a New Era8, reaffirming peaceful emergence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BINGQI, 2019). Among other proposals, the feasibility of boosting the integrative project in formation is demonstrated. In this scenario, some states feel confronted by proactivity in the midst of cooperation or competition. The B3W Initiative9 made by Biden on 06/12/21, at the G7 Summit, in Cornwall, England, plans resources for infrastructure and other applications. For Sanger and Landler (2021), it is a counterproposal to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): the B3W, however, faces dissent and caution from Europeans, who reap benefits from interactions with the Chinese. Therefore, historical Western ties do not overcome Chinese breath to support Africa's leverage. Thus, it is inferred that the approach of these and other powers will influence the operability of the projects that are intended to be unleashed in Africa, paving the way for the prosperity of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) that is in the gestation process. 5Soest (2021) describes that i) security has an emphasis on neutralizing terrorism; ii) climate change is on the agenda, yet the United States still relies on fossil fuels extracted in Africa; iii) fighting diseases focuses on HIV/AIDS and now Covid-19; iv) the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) supports exports to the U.S. 6If, for Xiaochen (2015), this composes opening strategy with other states, for Pairault (2018) the SEZ model was designed by China for China: the OECCZ was designed for China to act in other countries. The nest is built to attract the Phoenix (China). 7See Dominguez (2018, p.164) and Lopes et al (2013, p.88). FOCAC is the main platform for China-Africa dialogue and coordination (53 African states), focused on the Oil for Infrastructure strategy. The First Ministerial Conference in Beijing on 10/10/2000 resulted in two documents: the Beijing Declaration on the China-Africa Cooperation Forum, making the Forum the platform for dialogue, and the China-Africa Cooperation Program on Economic and Social Development, defining parameters of the strategic partnership. 8The Five Nos are: i) non-interference in the development model; ii) non-interference in internal affairs; iii) nonimposition of China's will; iv) no link between political bias and assistance, and v) no pursuit of selfish political gains. The Eight Initiatives are: industrial promotion, infrastructure connectivity, trade facilitation, green development, building capacity, medical assistance, personal exchanges, and peace and security (YANG, 2018). 9The B3W Initiative is an acronym for the first words of the proposal "Build Back Better World: An Affirmative Initiative for Meeting the Tremendous Infrastructure Needs of Low- and Middle-Income Countries. See The White House (2021). Year 4 Edition 5 – June 2021 [continues]
OMNIDEF ANALYSIS PAGE 6 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2595-9212 MARECHAL CORDEIO DE FARIAS GEOPOLÍTICA E SETORES SECURITY AND DEFENSE ESTRATÉGICOS PUBLIC POLICIES 3. Regional Integration as a Strategy for Promoting Security, Defense and Development The economic dimension of the globalization process has contributed greatly to the intensification of international trade flows, mainly by highlighting the emergence of regional integration initiatives translated into the formation of economic blocs, according to Gilpin (2000), one of the phenomena that shape the post-Cold War international system.10 Regional integration is seen by many as an instrument of economic development, since its primary objective is to eliminate customs barriers between the countries of a given region, thus promoting an increase in commercial transactions. On the other hand, authors such as Dolan, Kotler, and Baghwati (1993) argue that these same integration processes can lead to deviations from or the suppression of the practice of free trade, since countries that do not belong to a given bloc are discriminated against through the adoption of protectionist policies that provide preferential trade arrangements only for member countries. According to Balassa (1962) apud QUEIROZ (2012), conceptually, the stages of the economic integration process have been understood as a gradual succession of structures: a free trade area or zone; a customs union; a common market; an economic union, or even, in its most advanced stage, a total economic integration where there is the adoption of a common monetary policy instituted in the form of a single central bank and currency, as described below: Figure 1- Phases of Economic Integration Source: Queiroz (2012, p.82) 10Neofunctionalism was the first methodological construct to try to explain the patterns of cooperation from economic blocs and, for this, it is based on two epistemological pillars: the spillover effects and the role of interest groups. In contrast, for the Intergovernmentalist current - a theory that gained ground in the 1970s - integration is, above all, the result of rational choices made by sovereign states that always act with the aim of promoting and maximizing national interests. Year 4 Edition 5 – June 2021 [continues]
OMNIDEF ANALYSIS PAGE 7 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2595-9212 MARECHAL CORDEIO DE FARIAS GEOPOLÍTICA E SETORES SECURITY AND DEFENSE ESTRATÉGICOS PUBLIC POLICIES Although we will highlight, at this first moment, issues related to the economic field, it is urgent to emphasize that, if successful, regional integration can generate virtuous spillover effects to other areas, such as security and defense. A good example of this synergy is the European case. By bringing together the BENELUX countries (Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg), West Germany, France, and Italy, the Treaty of Paris, signed in April 1951, established the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), a timely attempt to stimulate integration and cooperation that, in turn, paved the way for other initiatives such as the Treaty of Rome (1957) and the Maastricht Treaty (1992) that resulted in the modern European Union (EU), as it is known today: a political and economic union of 27 countries. And, in fact, the creation of a common market followed by the introduction of a single currency - the Euro - heralded a promising new era of economic growth and political integration (QUEIROZ and KRISHNA- HENSEL, 2020, p.280). Reflecting this project of a wider and stronger Europe, from then on, various aspects of the policy and decision-making processes covered a wide range of sectors such as the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). The Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) - originally conceived in 1999 as the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) - is part of the CFSP and remains a key intergovernmental tool to promote cooperation among EU member states in operational conflict prevention missions and crisis management and strengthening international security based on civilian and military assets (PIROZZI, 2018). Thus, considering the empirical evidence, would the African Continental Free Trade Agreement be able to produce spillover effects in the field of security and defense, so as to be a factor that generates stability? 4. African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) Once these structural and conjunctural considerations have been made, in search of answers to the many questions raised, the essay brings brief reflections on the possibilities of integrationist initiatives generating spillover effects between security, defense and development, which opens a broad and challenging field of investigation. To this end, we analyze the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA)11, considered by many to be the first step toward the creation of what will be the largest free trade zone for goods and services in the world and which, according to the words of the South African president and current leader of the African Union (AU), Cyril Ramaphosa, will be a milestone that will fundamentally change the continent. 11TheAfCFTA was signed by all African countries except Eritrea. The agreement entered into force 13 months after its signing, on May 30, 2019, when it reached the minimum number of ratifications - 22 states - to take effect. Five more countries - Zambia, Tanzania, Somalia, Algeria, and Morocco - have expressed interest in ratifying the AfCFTA to thus soon join the 35 nations that have already done so (World Bank, 2020, p.01). Year 4 Edition 5 – June 2021 [continues]
OMNIDEF ANALYSIS PAGE 8 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2595-9212 MARECHAL CORDEIO DE FARIAS GEOPOLÍTICA E SETORES SECURITY AND DEFENSE ESTRATÉGICOS PUBLIC POLICIES Effective May 30, 2019, the AfCFTA, according to World Bank data, represents a huge opportunity for 55 countries to reduce restrictions on trade and free movement for more than 1.3 billion Africans. This will mean a combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the order of $3.4 trillion and an increase in intraregional trade by more than 50% by 2022. In other words, the Agreement has the potential to lift about 30 million people out of extreme poverty and allow for an income increase for another 68 million living on less than USD 5.50 per day, however, it should be emphasized, if aligned with the concomitant adoption of significant political reforms and trade facilitation measures12. In times when the epidemiological crisis caused by COVID-19 accentuates poverty and deepens differences, the creation of this vast regional market represents an important opportunity to: (i) diversify exports; (ii) accelerate economic growth and; (iii) attract foreign direct investment, which, in turn, can generate immediate effects in reducing these deleterious indices: Graph 1: Estimates of Poverty Reduction with AfCFTA implementation (2020-2035) Source: World Bank. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/pt/topic/trade/publication/the-african-continental-free-trade-area 12 Source: https://www.worldbank.org/pt/topic/trade/publication/the-african-continental-free-trade-area. Accessed on: 06/06/2021. Year 4 Edition 5 – June 2021 [continues]
OMNIDEF ANALYSIS PAGE 9 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2595-9212 MARECHAL CORDEIO DE FARIAS GEOPOLÍTICA E SETORES SECURITY AND DEFENSE ESTRATÉGICOS PUBLIC POLICIES In practical terms, with AfCFTA, there would be a sustained drop in extreme poverty levels across the continent. Forecasts indicate that West Africa would see the sharpest drop in the number of people living in extreme poverty: a decline of 12 million (more than a third of the total for Africa as a whole). Central, East and Southern Africa would see a drop of 9.3 million, 4.8 million and 3.9 million respectively in these figures. In such a scenario, the countries with the highest poverty rates would register the largest falls: in Guinea- Bissau, the decline in poverty rates would be on the order of 37.9% to 27.7%, in Mali from 14.4% to 6.8%, and in Togo from 24.1% to 16.9%. 13 Thus, by increasing regional trade, reducing costs and streamlining customs procedures, the full implementation of the AfCFTA would contribute directly or indirectly - depending on cyclical and structural characteristics in each state - to the efficiency of joint governance mechanisms by providing instruments to increase resilience to externalities such as future economic shocks and contribute, for example, to the adoption of reforms necessary for long-term growth. It is important to point out that extreme poverty and social exclusion of large sectors of the population have the potential to affect political stability, thus eroding social cohesion and making the security of states vulnerable: they are unequivocal signs of the state's inability to create and distribute wealth and, moreover, a clear symptom of governance dysfunction (SAINT-PIERRE, 2011, p.417). In this way, reflections on the AfCFTA allow us to infer that the security dynamics of African countries is intrinsically linked to the state-building process in which they have been engaged since decolonization. Therefore, how to promote the spill-over effect from the economic field to security and/or defense, as advocated by specialized literature? 5. Spillover Effects The connections with a holistic vision of security and defense become evident when we analyze the objectives of Agenda 2063 - a document launched in April 2015, in the city of Niamey, Niger, by the African Union. This is an action plan that aims to make Africa an integrated, prosperous, and peaceful continent, representing a dynamic force in the global arena, through the promotion of 14 initiatives in several areas, such as: infrastructure, education, science, technology, culture, and peacekeeping. With the motto, "The Africa we want", the document highlights, as basic points, the search for an Africa: 13Source: https://www.worldbank.org/pt/topic/trade/publication/the-african-continental-free-trade-area Year 4 Edition 5 – June 2021 [continues]
OMNIDEF ANALYSIS PAGE 10 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2595-9212 MARECHAL CORDEIO DE FARIAS GEOPOLÍTICA E SETORES SECURITY AND DEFENSE ESTRATÉGICOS PUBLIC POLICIES 1. Prosperous, based on inclusive growth and sustainable development; 2. Integrated, politically democratic and united based on the ideals of Pan-Africanism and the vision of African Renaissance; 3. Of good governance, Democracy, Respect for Human Rights, Justice, and the Rule of Law; 4. Peaceful and safe; 5. With strong cultural identity, heritage, values, common ethics; 6. Whose development is people-oriented, trusting in the potential of African people, especially the potential of women, youth, and where the child is treated with dignity; 7. As a strong, united and influential actor and partner in the world arena. Thus, the data presented, although limited as a sample, allow us to infer that the implementation of the AfCFTA would contribute to the achievement of the objectives cited, since it would boost several reforms needed to increase long-term growth in African countries. Moreover, in the short term, the Agreement takes on the contours of a welcome "regional public policy" by appearing as a potential instrument aimed at promoting food security in times when the COVID-19 pandemic exponentiates weaknesses, especially between the developed and developing world. In this way, by contributing to strengthen regional governance, the Agreement exposes and puts under the spotlight the importance of the political dimension of the security concept by attributing to the political-institutional weaknesses of these states one of the main factors responsible, for example, for major humanitarian crises, which makes state building - here to resume part of our previous argumentation - a strategic challenge for international security. In other words, the AfCFTA demonstrates, albeit at the conjectural level, that strengthening African states by strengthening their governmental institutions through regional integration so that they are able to fulfill key functions, including security, can be an essential component of national power and stability. In turn, this inference is in line with Brazil's desire for greater stability in its area of strategic interest, as we will see below. Year 4 Edition 5 – June 2021 [continues]
OMNIDEF ANALYSIS PAGE 11 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2595-9212 MARECHAL CORDEIO DE FARIAS GEOPOLÍTICA E SETORES SECURITY AND DEFENSE ESTRATÉGICOS PUBLIC POLICIES 6. Brazil's strategic interests It is common sense, especially today, that the African continent is diverse, multicultural, multi-ethnic and that, for unequivocal historical reasons, it has deep ties with Brazil. Cultural interpenetration is one of the outstanding characteristics of Brazilianness, founded on a three-dimensionality (indigenous, European, African) of Brazilian culture, expressed in miscegenation and in the ethnic-cultural component (MOURÃO, 1997). Moreover, Brazil and African nations share a vision of better security and development conditions, typical of countries of the South (SANTOS, 2007)14 and share an Atlantic identity, in permanent construction (QUEIROZ and CUNHA, 2021). This essence is also verifiable in the fact that the first leader to recognize Brazil's independence was African15. This shows that the psychosocial and geohistorical link between the two banks of the river called Atlantic has deep roots (SILVA, 2011). Assuming this premise means recognizing that the construction of Atlantic bridges, built on common identity traits - and, it should be noted, capable of contributing to breaking the harmful perception of Africa as a subordinate corner to the center of the international system - potentially translates into a relevant tool in the pursuit of national interests based on the trinomial Security, Defense, and Development. Thus, the African heritage that permeates the Brazilian social structure requires us to contemplate - in addition to commercial and political aspirations - foundations, processes and vicissitudes that, since the beginning of the decolonization process, verified at the dawn of the 1950s, denote the continent's search for African proposals for African problems. In other words, it refers to an autochthonous alternative capable of overcoming or minimizing the lasting reminiscences originating from the externalities of geopolitical disputes in the context of the Cold War. In this sense, Brazil observes with enthusiasm the evolution of the integration process of the Continent and the resulting spillover effect: Excerpt from the conference The African Continental Free Trade Agreement Minister Rodrigo de D'Araújo Gabsch 16 14Santos (2007) indicates the existence of an abyssal line separating the global North and South. 15Cervo and Bueno (2015) mention that the United States was the first country to recognize Brazil's independence; however, complementarily, historical records presented by Garcia (2005, p.29), show that, "[In 1823], is received in Rio de Janeiro Embassy of Benin, on behalf of the obá Osemwede and King Ajan, of Onim, current Lagos." Mourão (1997) proposes a complicity in the recognition of independence: just as Brazil was the first Western state to recognize independence from Angola, as stated by Alberto da Costa e Silva (1989, p.26), "the first sovereign to recognize Brazilian independence was the Oba Osemwede of Benin" (apud MOURÃO, 1997, p.151). 16Cycle of Conferences on the New Brazilian Foreign Policy, presentation by Minister Rodrigo D'Araújo Gabsch, under the title "The African Continental Free Trade Agreement", on 09/02/21, available at https://videoteca.funag.gov.br/rodrigo-gabsch-o-acordo-de-livre-comercio-continental-africano/. Accessed on 10/06/21. Year 4 Edition 5 – June 2021 [continues]
OMNIDEF ANALYSIS PAGE 12 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2595-9212 MARECHAL CORDEIO DE FARIAS GEOPOLÍTICA E SETORES SECURITY AND DEFENSE ESTRATÉGICOS PUBLIC POLICIES In this process we have purposes and a role to play. This is because a country's areas of strategic interest are recognized according to its understanding of values, principles, and expectations. In addition, no country with aspirations to the status of protagonist in the concert of nations, as Brazil is, can afford to neglect Africa, one of the last economic frontiers of the world, especially considering that international scenarios are dynamic and constantly changing, a perception confirmed in the most recent version of the National Defense Policy (PND), of July 2020, which: 2.1.6 (...) without disregarding the global sphere, establishes as an area of priority interest the Brazilian strategic environment, which includes South America, the South Atlantic, the countries of the West African coast and Antarctica. (BRASIL, 2020; p.11) (our emphasis). In the case of Brazil, elements such as political stability, the need to neutralize threats, and the use of synergies in its strategic environment are considered. This materializes the indispensable condition for the achievement of its objectives in a broader perspective. 7. Conclusion The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) aims to create the largest free trade area in the world and thereby, in the medium and long term, contribute to breaking the structural underdevelopment barrier that has long plagued the continent. Therefore, as pointed out in the literature, if expectations are confirmed, the initiative, by deepening trade integration, has the potential to usher in a new era of development in Africa and, equally, to spill over the good practices achieved in one area to other surrounding fields So, let's see: in terms of security and defense, the overflow of a virtuous cycle of integration in the economic field can contribute - as has been happening in the case of Europe - to paving the way for the prevalence of a Kantian logic among African countries. In other words, the dominant behavior will be shaped by cooperation, and any conflicts that may arise will be resolved through the normative machinery derived from this governance process. Consequently, the recognition of such practices would imply the consolidation of a positive-sum game (plus-sum outcome) in which the benefits of cooperation directly influence the way states perceive themselves in a context in which both actors and structure mutually constitute each other. In this ontological design, by ratifying the South Atlantic and, more specifically, the African coast as part of its vital interests, Brazil has the option of recognizing, albeit indirectly, the benefits provided by projects of the AfCFTA's magnitude. A more stable and integrated Africa means, in theory, lower risks of endogenous threats being transposed to priority areas, thus indicating synergies to be considered as amalgamations between three inseparable pillars: security, defense, and development. Finally, notwithstanding the inferences obtained from the intra-regional level of analysis, it is important to highlight that a broader and more accurate understanding of the possible connections between integration processes and the elements analyzed in this article cannot disregard the actions of external powers on the Continent, especially in a world marked by an increasingly intense and complex interdependence between actors and productive factors. Year 4 Edition 5 – June 2021 [continues]
OMNIDEF ANALYSIS PAGE 13 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2595-9212 MARECHAL CORDEIO DE FARIAS GEOPOLÍTICA E SETORES SECURITY AND DEFENSE ESTRATÉGICOS PUBLIC POLICIES Meanwhile, the external and internal power vectors indicate a synergy that strengthens Africa as a whole. The cooperative-competitive logic that guides extra-regional powers tends to converge with the dynamism factors that drive the feasibility of the AfCFTA, characterized by a force, a movement, whose trajectory strengthens the core of the integrative project, bringing qualitative changes across the spectrum that comprises the security, defense, and development trinomial. The sharing of perceptions about an intercontinental Atlantic mentality renews ethnic, cultural, economic, and psychosocial affinity. A common essence consolidates basic characteristics that constitute bonds and that make Brazil's interest in Africa's development and in the strengthening of security and defense mechanisms understandable. On these bases is founded the perception that the prosperity of the Continent promotes Brazil's strategic interests. Related News ThisDay – 08/06/2021 CAJ News – 22/06/2021 AfCTA to Boost Africa’s Exports by $560bn Kaunda lauded widely as Africa’s pillar of integration When fully operational, the African Continental Free THE deceased former president of Zambia, Dr Kenneth Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement will boost exports in Kaunda, will down in the annals of history as a champion the continent by at least $560 billion, the federal of regional integration. That is the unanimous sentiment government has said. Senior Special Assistant to the of international leaders as the world comes to terms Nigerian President on the Public Sector and Secretary, with the passing on of one of the most renowned National Action Committee on (AfCFTA-NG), Mr political figures to emerge from the African continent. Francis Anatogu, stated this during the first African Condolences continue to pour in for the Southern Local Content Roundtable Conference in Yenagoa, African country’s founding president, who died from Bayelsa state. pneumonia last Thursday, aged 97. For complete news, CLICK HERE. For complete news, CLICK HERE. REFERENCES BALASSA, Bela. Teoria da Integração Econômica. Lisboa: Livraria Clássica Editora, 1962. BINGQI, Zhou. Cooperation between China and Africa under the One Belt One Road Initiative: China’s Benefits and Problems, Chinese Studies, 2019, 8, 27-41 BRASIL. Política Nacional de Defesa e Estratégia Nacional de Defesa. Disponível https://www.gov.br/defesa/pt-br/assuntos/copy_of_estado-e-defesa/pnd_end_congresso_.pdf . Access in: 29 may. 2021. BRAUDEL, Fernand. Civilização material, economia e capitalismo: séculos XV-XVIII: o tempo do mundo, Vol.3, 2a ed., São Paulo: Martins Fontes, 2009. CASTRO, Therezinha de. África: Geohistória, Geopolítica e Relações Internacionais, Rio de Janeiro: Editora Biblioteca do Exército, 1981. Year 4 Edition 5 – June 2021 [continues]
OMNIDEF ANALYSIS PAGE 14 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2595-9212 MARECHAL CORDEIO DE FARIAS GEOPOLÍTICA E SETORES SECURITY AND DEFENSE ESTRATÉGICOS PUBLIC POLICIES CERVO, Amado Luiz e BUENO, Clodoaldo. História da política exterior do Brasil, 5a Ed, Brasília: Editora Universidade de Brasília, 2015. CRAVEN, Matthew. Between law and history: the Berlin Conference of 1884-1885 and the logic of free trade, London Review of International Law, Volume 3, Issue 1, 2015, pp. 31–59. DAS, Diganta e LAM,Tong. High-tech utopianism: Chinese and Indian science parks in the neo-liberal turn, British Society for the History of Science, V.1, 2016, pp. 221–238. DOLAN, M. Global Economic Transformation and Less Developed Countries. In: SLATER, R. et alii (Eds.). Global Economic Transformation and the Third World. Boulder: Lynne, 1993. DOMINGUEZ, Rafael. China y el Renacimiento de África. In VADELL, J. 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XIAOCHEN, Zhao (2015) An Exploration on the New Model of China’s Opening-Up Strategy, Journal on Business Review (GBR) Vol.4 No.1, 2015, pp.26-30. Year 4 Edition 5 – June 2021 [continues]
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