Biden vs. Trump in the battleground - CVI's first repeat panel for 2020 Election March 2020 - Democracy Corps
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Biden vs. Trump in the battleground
CVI’s first repeat panel for 2020 Election
March 2020
Innovative Methodology
BATTLEGROUND PHONE POLL + LARGE-SCALE WEB POLL
BATTLEGROUND PHONE POLL: A phone poll of 1,000 registered voters in a 16-state Presidential and
Senate battleground was conducted by phone March 9-16, 2020 from a voter-file sample. 67% of
respondents were reached on cell phones in order to accurately reflect the American electorate.
➢ The phone survey takes political and cultural measures in the battleground and among the RAE
and white working class.
➢ The phone survey is used to compare and apply political and cultural weights the web survey
results to offset bias of online sample.
➢ The web survey requires this parallel phone survey that includes core demographic and
ideological questions, including key thermometer measures. Only with such a survey can we
properly weight our web survey, which we know are always biased to be culturally liberal and
more educated.
BATTLEGROUND WEB POLL: A large-scale web survey of 2,900 registered voters in the 16-state
battleground was conducted online March 10-17, 2020 from a voter-file sample.
➢ The registered voter web survey is voter-file matched to produce a high-quality sample of real
voters with the added advantage of known vote history. It is also well-suited for conducting
experiments to test message strategies and executions.
*Unless otherwise stated, the results shown are from the Democracy Corps/VPC March
battleground web survey. 1
Definition of Battleground
Total 16-state Presidential and Senate battleground: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada,
New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
Wisconsin
8 Diverse States = AZ (+5), CO (+1), FL (+2), GA (+5), NV (+1), NM (+3), NC (+3), VA (+1)
8 Blue Wall States = IA (+3), MI (+1), ME (+3), MN (+1), NH (-), OH (+3), PA (-), WI (-)
4 Regions :
• Northeast (ME, NH, PA),
• Midwest (IA, MI, MN, OH, WI)
• South (FL, GA, NC, VA)
• West (AZ, CO, NM, NV)
*(Republican PVI advantage) (PVI – even) (Democratic PVI advantage)
2Key Findings:
• This is a turning in the campaign, as Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the
battleground by a healthy margin, while Bernie Sanders loses. Democrats lead in
the House and the 5 target GOP Senate seats.
• Biden holds this lead because of his strength in the Rising American Electorate,
particularly white unmarried women, women across the electorate, and his running
well with white working-class women. He’s also winning defecting Republicans and
independents.
• But with a president willing to do anything, uncertainty around the coronavirus, and
need to win the Senate, Biden has ways to raise his support further. Most
important, he is underperforming with Sanders voters, male voters of color and
millennials.
• Biden‘s current messages do not elicit intense support, though many other
messages do in a country where nearly 60 percent of voters believe Trump
governs for billionaires and big money elites, believe he is not honest and is self
dealing, and believe he’s not making health care more affordable.
3State of The Race
4Democrats start 2020 with lead at every level in battleground, including
Senate pick-up opportunities
PRESIDENTIAL, HOUSE & SENATE BALLOTS
BATTLEGROUND
Democratic Candidate Republican Donald Trump Libertarian/Other
+1 +4 +5 +5 +2 +4
47 48 49 45 51 50 49 47 50 46
46 45
5 1 2 1
2016 Presidential in Trump v. Biden Full Trump v. Biden 2- Generic Senate Vote Republican Targets
Battleground Vote Way Congressional (AZ, CO, IA, ME, NC)
Displaying results from Democracy Corps March 2020 battleground web 5
survey.Biden holds winning margin in battleground, but Sanders’ position is
untenable and loses simulated campaign
2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT
BATTLEGROUND
Democratic Candidate Republican Donald Trump Libertarian/Other
+1 +4 +5 +4 +1 -- +5
47 48 49 45 51 48 44 48 48 47
46 45 46 42
5 4 7 8
2016 Presidential Initial Vote Two-Way Vote Final Vote Initial Vote Two-Way Vote Final Vote
in Battleground
Biden v. Trump Sanders v. Trump
Displaying results from Democracy Corps March 2020 battleground web 6
survey.Biden has much room to gain winnable votes, while majority say they will never
vote for Trump
VOTER CHOICE SCALE: BIDEN V. TRUMP
REGISTERED VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND
Democrat Joe Biden Republican Donald Trump
52
40 41
34
6 8
5 3 3
2 1 1 1 2 2 2
Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In reach Peripheral Unreachable
Displaying results from Democracy Corps October 2020 battleground web survey. 7Biden gaining from defection of McCain conservatives, GOP moderates and
independents
Thinking about the election for President in 2020, who would you vote for if the candidates were -- (ROTATE TRUMP AND BIDEN, KEEP
AMASH LAST) Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, and Libertarian candidate Justin Amash?
2020 PRESIDENTIAL: BIDEN V. TRUMP
GOP TYPOLOGY
Democrat Joe Biden Republican Donald Trump Libertarian/Other
+82 +85 +87 +88 +79 +66 +29
89 90 90 93
88
80
51
22
14
7 5 6 5 9
2 2 3 1 1 4 4
All GOP Evangelical Tea Party Catholic McCain Moderate GOP Straight
conservative conservative conservatives independents
Trump Loyalists Not Trump Loyalists
Displaying results from Democracy Corps March 2020 battleground phone survey. 8Biden getting huge margins with the Rising American Electorate, particularly
the women, while millennials pose challenges
Thinking about the election for President in 2020, who would you vote for if the candidates were -- (ROTATE TRUMP AND BIDEN, KEEP
AMASH LAST) Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, and Libertarian candidate Justin Amash?
2020 PRESIDENTIAL: BIDEN V. TRUMP
RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE
Democrat Joe Biden Republican Donald Trump Libertarian/Other
+76 +8 +33 +25 +17 +10 +5
83
67
59 56
50 49
42 39 39 43 47
34 34
7 5 5 3 3 6 6
2
African-American, Hispanic, 7% Unmarried Women, White Unmarried White College Millennials, 33% White Millennials,
13% 28% Women. 18% Women, 14% 22%
Displaying results from Democracy Corps March 2020 battleground phone survey. 9Biden aided by female wave and year of unmarried women, but needs to
consolidate male base
Thinking about the election for President in 2020, who would you vote for if the candidates were -- Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald
Trump, and Libertarian candidate Justin Amash?
2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT
RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE
Democrat Joe Biden Republican Donald Trump Libertarian/Other
+81 +64 +32 +34 +25 +17 +10 +28
87
75
62 64
59 56 56
51
39 41
30 30 34
28
11 10 10
6 3 6 2 3 2 3
African American African American Hispanic women, Hispanic men, 3% White unmarried White college white millennial White millennial
women, 9% men, 4% 4% women, 18% women, 14% women, 14% men, 8%
Displaying results from Democracy Corps March 2020 battleground web survey. 10Biden leads with white unmarried women starts with college, baby
boomers and metros, but still strong in working class
Thinking about the election for President in 2020, who would you vote for if the candidates were -- Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald
Trump, and Libertarian candidate Justin Amash?
2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT
WHITE UNMARRIED WOMEN
Democrat Joe Biden Republican Donald Trump Libertarian/Other
+71 +46 +32 +24 +26 +20 +11 +3
73 69 65
60 58 57
52 48 45
37 41
33 36 32
23
2 3 4 1 2 4 4 4 2
College grad, 7% Large/small Baby boomer, 4% Over 40, 9% Millennial, 9% Gen X, 4% Working class, Non metro, 8%
metro, 9% 12%
Displaying results from Democracy Corps March 2020 battleground web survey.
11Biden competing to win white working women, while Trump is consolidating
the men
2016 V. 2018 NATIONAL V. 2020 BATTLEGROUND VOTE
Clinton 2016/Democrat 2018/Biden 2020 Trump 2016/Republican 2018/Trump 2020
+13 +14
+27 +14 +9 +8 +48 +34 +39 +41
71 69
66 67
61
56 53
52
42 43 45
34 32
28 28
23
16 Nation 18 Nation Trump v. Biden Trump v. Biden 16 Nation 18 Nation Trump v. Biden Trump v. Biden
Battleground 3- Battleground 2- Battleground 3- Battleground 2-
Way Way Way Way
White Working-Class Women White Working-Class Men
24% 20%
Democracy Corps/VPC March 2020 battleground phone survey data compared to the 2016 presidential
vote and 2018 Congressional vote in national exit polls. White working class =non college educated. 12Millennials pose some of biggest 2016 challenges
Thinking about the election for President in 2020, who would you vote for if the candidates were -- Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald
Trump, and Libertarian candidate Justin Amash?
2020 PRESIDENTIAL: BIDEN V. TRUMP
MILLENNIALS
Democrat Joe Biden Republican Donald Trump Libertarian/Other
+10 +4 +67 +24 +35 +18 +14
73
66
57 53
49 49
39 43 47
33 31 35 35
11 7 10
6 6 6 5 2
Millennial, 33% White, 22% African American, Hispanic, 4% White college grad, White working White metro area,
5% 4% class, 14% 11%
Displaying results from Democracy Corps March 2020 battleground web survey. 13Millennial men, particularly minority men are top consolidation targets for
Biden
VOTER CHOICE SCALE: BIDEN V. TRUMP
MILLENNIALS BY RACE/GENDER
White women White men Minority women Minority men
62
59 57
47
42
27
22 20
15 15 17
7
4 2 3 3
White White Minority Minority White White Minority Minority White White Minority Minority White White Minority Minority
women men women men women men women men women men women men women men women men
Loyalist/Supporter Conditional/Vulnerable Winnable/In Reach Peripheral/Unreachable
Displaying results from Democracy Corps March 2202 battleground panel survey. 14Biden voters consolidated in general, but Sanders voters dangerously not
2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT
Registered Voters in Battleground
Democrat Joe Biden Republican Donald Trump Libertarian/Other
+86 +83 +62
92
86
71
11 14
6 9
2 3
Trump v. Biden (Web Survey) Trump v. Biden (Phone Survey) Trump v. Biden (Web Survey)
Biden Primary Voters Sanders Primary Voters
Showing average 2016 Presidential vote margin from battleground states. Showing 2020 primary vote
intention and 2020 Presidential margin from Democracy Corps/VPC March 2020 battleground web survey.
15Beginning messaging for 2020
16The Biden messages comparable with Trump’s, and better with
independents
Here are some statements from a Democratic candidate on how to change the direction of our country. For each statement,
please tell me how much more positive you feel about the candidate after reading that?
Much more positive
MIDDLE CLASS: Joe Biden says he is running because we are in a battle for the soul Total 32 54
of America. The middle class is hurting today and powerful forces are trying to tear
America apart instead of lifting it up. Across the country, too many families are being left
Independent 29 53
behind. The next president needs to rebuild the middle class, and this time make sure RAE 38 64
everybody comes along - regardless of race, gender, religion, sexual orientation, or
disability. WWC women 28 50
ENGAGE THE WORLD: Joe Biden says this is a moment when American leadership is Total 31 53
needed more than ever to address some of the greatest economic and security
challenges in the world, but this administration has repeatedly broken our word and Independent 27 52
commitments to allies, and it undermines our strength as a nation. The next president
must repair our relationships with our friends and allies and stand up to strongmen and
RAE 33 63
thugs on the global stage. WWC women 24 47
BUILD ON PROGRESS: Joe Biden says he will build on the reforms he helped shape Total 28 50
under the Obama/Biden administration, where they took on special interests and the
status quo to do what's right. As president, Biden will make it a top priority to stop this Independent 23 51
reversal of the progress made by Obamacare and will build on it with a plan giving
Americans more choice, reducing health care costs, and making our health care system
RAE 32 60
less complex to navigate. WWC women 28 50
White working class (WWC) = white non college educated. 17President Trump’s pre-coronavirus messages comparable to Biden but
much better with white working class women
Here are some things President Trump and Republicans are saying about how to improve the country and make the economy
better. For each statement, please say how much more positive you feel about President Trump after reading that?
Much more positive
BORDERS: We have a state of emergency at our southern border. Border patrol, our military, Total 35 50
and local law enforcement are doing a create job, but without the wall and tougher immigration Independent 28 46
enforcement, you cannot have border security. It is time to get serious on addressing illegal
immigration and the crisis at our southern border. Drugs, gangs and human trafficking must be
RAE 26 43
stopped. WWC women 38 54
GREATEST ECONOMY: Under The Trump administration has rapidly revived the U.S. Total 33 49
economy and launched the great American comeback by slashing a record number of job-killing
regulations, enacting historic and record-setting tax cuts, and fighting for fair and reciprocal
Independent 26 46
trade agreements. Our economy is the best we have ever seen, and jobs are booming, incomes RAE 24 41
are soaring, poverty is plummeting, and our country is thriving and highly respected again. WWC women 32 52
AMERICA FIRST: Thanks to Republican leadership, America is winning again and respected Total 31 48
again worldwide because we are finally putting America first. American workers are the biggest
winners. We have withdrawn from disastrous trade deals like the TPP that treat us unfairly and
Independent 26 43
renegotiated the disastrous NAFTA. The new NAFTA is the most modern trade deal in history RAE 23 40
that will greatly expand exports for our farming, manufacturing, and service industries. WWC women 33 51
STOOD UP TO CHINA: China is looking at the Democratic Candidates and hoping they get
elected so it can continue to rip off our country like they've been doing for the last 30 years. The
Total 30 47
Democrats have never stood up to China and other countries who took advantage of us, but Independent 22 42
thanks to President Trump's tariffs and historic trade deal, China is finally being held RAE 22 40
accountable and paying us billions of dollars back in tariffs and changing their unfair trade
practices.
WWC women 31 50
White working class (WWC) = white non college educated. 18Biden’s messages badly trail other messages heard in the primary
Total Registered Voters in Battleground Much more positive
CORRUPTION: We need to tackle the corruption in Washington that makes our government work for the wealthy
and well-connected. We must end lobbying by closing loopholes so everyone who lobbies must register, shining 39 63
sunlight on their activities, banning foreign governments from hiring Washington lobbyists, and forbidding lobbyists
from moving in and out of government jobs.
WORKING FAMILIES: Women are now over half the work force and two thirds are the main or principal
breadwinner for their families. Their families are dealing with impossible costs for health care and prescriptions,
childcare and housing. And they need a president who respects their hard work and supports universal childcare, 38 62
paid sick days and equal pay for equal work.
RIGGED: We must fight for an America that works for everyone, not just the wealthy and well-connected. The Middle
Class is hurting because corporations use their money to rig our politics. That is corruption, so we must break up
corporate monopolies and end special-interest lobbying and tax ultra-millionaires to support investments to create 33 57
American jobs and, help families with universal childcare and healthcare.
BIDEN-MIDDLE CLASS: Joe Biden says he is running because we are in a battle for the soul of America. The middle
class is hurting today and powerful forces are trying to tear America apart instead of lifting it up. Across the country, too
many families are being left behind. The next president needs to rebuild the middle class, and this time make sure 32 54
everybody comes along - regardless of race, gender, religion, sexual orientation, or disability.
BIDEN-ENGAGE THE WORLD: Joe Biden says this is a moment when American leadership is needed more than ever
to address some of the greatest economic and security challenges in the world, but this administration has repeatedly
broken our word and commitments to allies, and it undermines our strength as a nation. The next president must repair 31 53
our relationships with our friends and allies and stand up to strongmen and thugs on the global stage.
. 19Biden messages badly lag with base women
BASE WOMEN
Much more positive
CORRUPTION: We need to tackle the corruption in Washington that makes our government
work for the wealthy and well-connected. We must end lobbying by closing loopholes so
White unmarried women 40 65
everyone who lobbies must register, shining sunlight on their activities, banning foreign White millennial women 36 64
governments from hiring Washington lobbyists, and forbidding lobbyists from moving in and
out of government jobs.
White college women 38 63
RIGGED: We must fight for an America that works for everyone, not just the wealthy and well-
connected. The Middle Class is hurting because corporations use their money to rig our
White unmarried women 35 61
politics. That is corruption, so we must break up corporate monopolies and end special-interest White millennial women 38 65
lobbying and tax ultra-millionaires to support investments to create American jobs and, help
families with universal childcare and healthcare.
White college women 29 51
BIDEN-MIDDLE CLASS: Joe Biden says he is running because we are in a battle for the soul
of America. The middle class is hurting today and powerful forces are trying to tear America
White unmarried women 35 60
apart instead of lifting it up. Across the country, too many families are being left behind. The White millennial women 28 53
next president needs to rebuild the middle class, and this time make sure everybody comes
along - regardless of race, gender, religion, sexual orientation, or disability.
White college women 32 56
BIDEN-ENGAGE THE WORLD: Joe Biden says this is a moment when American leadership
is needed more than ever to address some of the greatest economic and security challenges in
White unmarried women 32 60
the world, but this administration has repeatedly broken our word and commitments to allies, White millennial women 20 52
and it undermines our strength as a nation. The next president must repair our relationships White college women 31 55
with our friends and allies and stand up to strongmen and thugs on the global stage.
WORKING FAMILIES: Women are now over half the work force and two thirds are the main White unmarried women 32 57
or principal breadwinner for their families. Their families are dealing with impossible costs for
health care and prescriptions, childcare and housing. And they need a president who respects
White millennial women 47 72
their hard work and supports universal childcare, paid sick days and equal pay for equal work. White college women 44 65
. 20Biden messages do not register with consolidation targets
CONSOLIDATION GROUPS Much more positive
RIGGED: We must fight for an America that works for everyone, not just the wealthy and
Sanders in primary 58 85
well-connected. The Middle Class is hurting because corporations use their money to rig White millennial men 41 64
our politics. That is corruption, so we must break up corporate monopolies and end
special-interest lobbying and tax ultra-millionaires to support investments to create
Minority millennial women 50 80
American jobs and, help families with universal childcare and healthcare. Minority millennial men 42 74
CORRUPTION: We need to tackle the corruption in Washington that makes our Sanders in primary 55 85
government work for the wealthy and well-connected. We must end lobbying by closing
loopholes so everyone who lobbies must register, shining sunlight on their activities,
White millennial men 45 66
banning foreign governments from hiring Washington lobbyists, and forbidding lobbyists Minority millennial women 47 73
from moving in and out of government jobs. Minority millennial men 39 80
BIDEN-MIDDLE CLASS: Joe Biden says he is running because we are in a battle for the Sanders in primary 33 68
soul of America. The middle class is hurting today and powerful forces are trying to tear White millennial men 35 54
America apart instead of lifting it up. Across the country, too many families are being left
behind. The next president needs to rebuild the middle class, and this time make sure
Minority millennial women 42 70
everybody comes along - regardless of race, gender, religion, sexual orientation, or Minority millennial men 18 73
disability.
BIDEN-ENGAGE THE WORLD: Joe Biden says this is a moment when American Sanders in primary 26 67
leadership is needed more than ever to address some of the greatest economic and
security challenges in the world, but this administration has repeatedly broken our word and
White millennial men 33 53
commitments to allies, and it undermines our strength as a nation. The next president must Minority millennial women 29 66
repair our relationships with our friends and allies and stand up to strongmen and thugs on
the global stage.
Minority millennial men 30 81
. 21Biden messages do not compete with persuasion targets
PERSUASION TARGETS
Much more positive
WORKING FAMILIES: Women are now over half the work force and two thirds are the
main or principal breadwinner for their families. Their families are dealing with impossible White working class women 37 61
costs for health care and prescriptions, childcare and housing. And they need a president
who respects their hard work and supports universal childcare, paid sick days and equal
Winnable/In Reach 54 78
pay for equal work. Independents 38 63
CORRUPTION: We need to tackle the corruption in Washington that makes our
government work for the wealthy and well-connected. We must end lobbying by closing
loopholes so everyone who lobbies must register, shining sunlight on their activities,
White working class women 35 60
banning foreign governments from hiring Washington lobbyists, and forbidding lobbyists Winnable/In Reach 45 77
from moving in and out of government jobs. Independents 38 63
RIGGED: We must fight for an America that works for everyone, not just the wealthy and
well-connected. The Middle Class is hurting because corporations use their money to rig White working class women
our politics. That is corruption, so we must break up corporate monopolies and end
29 51
special-interest lobbying and tax ultra-millionaires to support investments to create Winnable/In Reach 43 77
American jobs and, help families with universal childcare and healthcare. Independents 28 52
MIDDLE CLASS: Joe Biden says he is running because we are in a battle for the soul of
America. The middle class is hurting today and powerful forces are trying to tear America White working class women 28 50
apart instead of lifting it up. Across the country, too many families are being left behind. The Winnable/In Reach 32 74
next president needs to rebuild the middle class, and this time make sure everybody comes
along - regardless of race, gender, religion, sexual orientation, or disability.
Independents 29 53
ENGAGE THE WORLD: Joe Biden says this is a moment when American leadership is
needed more than ever to address some of the greatest economic and security White working class women 24 47
challenges in the world, but this administration has repeatedly broken our word and Winnable/In Reach 34 74
commitments to allies, and it undermines our strength as a nation. The next president
must repair our relationships with our friends and allies and stand up to strongmen and
Independents 27 52
thugs on the global stage.
. 22Sanders messages are weaker than all others tested
Here are some statements from a Democratic candidate on how to change the direction of our country. For each statement,
please tell me how much more positive you feel about the candidate after reading that?
Much more positive
MINIMUM WAGE: Bernie Sanders is at the forefront of the fight for a living wage. When Total 27 47
he first introduced legislation four years ago to increase the federal minimum wage to
$15 an hour it was considered an impossible dream even by other Democrats, but
Independent 26 44
today, seven states and over 40 cities have passed $15 minimum wage laws. Sanders RAE 38 62
continues to lead on groundbreaking progressive ideas, including canceling student loan
debt and free college tuition. WWC women 21 42
ECONOMIC JUSTICE: Bernie Sanders says a small group of families has taken a Total 23 45
massive amount of the wealth American workers have produced. That is worse than
other leading economies, and its wrong. We can end this with an extreme wealth tax to Independent 23 51
raise an estimated $4.35 trillion over the next decade and cut the wealth of billionaires in
half over 15 years, which would substantially break up the concentration of wealth and
RAE 29 57
power. WWC women 18 42
REVOLUTION: Bernie Sanders says he is the only candidate who supports a Total 22 46
revolution. At a time when we have three people in this country owning more wealth
than the bottom half of America, while 500,000 people are sleeping out on the streets Independent 22 44
today, it is time for real change and the movement we build together can achieve
economic, racial, social and environmental justice for all.
RAE 32 60
WWC women 20 42
White working class (WWC) = white non college educated. 23Remember: near 60% believe Trump is self-dealing, untrustworthy,
governing for billionaires, and failing on health care
TRUMP ATTRIBUTES
Not well at all Describes very well
+21 +10 +18 +7 +16 +1 +16 +5 +15 +9 +12 +5
60 55 58 57 54
46 50 47 44 47
41 42
37 32 46 40 38 33
16 21 20 25 21 25
22 25 35 26 30 22 22 35
41 46 41 39
39 45 42 42 45
53 49 52 56 52
59 58
Total WWC Total WWC Total WWC Total WWC Total WWC Total WWC
Women Women Women Women Women Women
Making Governing for Draining the
healthcare more Acts like he is Honest and
Self dealing billionaires and swamp of corrupt
affordable above the law trustworthy
big money elite special interests
White working class (WWC) = white non college educated
24DEMOCRACY GREENBERG CENTER FOR VOTER CORPS RESEARCH INFORMATION 1440 G Street. NW 1440 G Street NW 1707 L Street, N.W. Floor 10 Floor 10 Suite 300 Washington, DC 20005 Washington, DC 20005 Washington, DC 20036 Phone: +1 202 250 3645 Phone: +1 202 499 6901 Phone: +1 202 659 9570 www.democracycorps.com www.greenbergresearch.com www.centerforvoterinformation.org
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