Being Prepared for Climate Change - Checklists of Potential Climate Change Risks
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Cover photograph: Waquoit Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. From: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Department of Commerce, photographer Rick Crawford Contents Table 3-1a. Potential climate change risks for pollution control Table 3-1b. Potential climate change risks for habitat Table 3-1c. Potential climate change risks for fish, wildlife and plants Table 3-1d. Potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies Tables 3-1e(i) and 3-1e(ii). Potential climate change risks for human health Table 3-1f. Potential climate change risks for floodplain management Table 3-1g. Potential climate change risks for wetland habitats Table 3-2. Organizational goals Risk identification checklists help environmental professionals think about how climate change might affect their organization or place. Checklist items are potential risks that could be inferred by crossing climate change stressors with the given goals. The EPA publication, Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans (EPA 842-K-14-002, August 2014) has more information about risks, risk identification and risk analysis. Tables 3-1a through 3-1d and Table 3-2 were originally published in that workbook. In the electronic pdf version of this document, the checklist checkboxes are selectable. If checkboxes are selected, then that information can be retained by saving the document or printing checklist pages. The Being Prepared for Climate Change workbook and this document are available via the Climate Ready Estuaries website, www.epa.gov/cre. EPA 840-K-21-001 April 2021
Table 3-1a. PoTenTial climaTe change risks for PolluTion conTrol Checklist of potential climate change risks for pollution control for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act pollution goals. Clean Water Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean Act goals summers winters water drought storminess acidification Controlling o Loss of melting o Temperature o Critical-low o Combined o Treatment plants point sources winter snows may criteria for flow criteria for sewer overflows may not be able to reduce spring discharges may be discharging may may increase discharge via gravity of pollution or summer flow exceeded (thermal not be met at higher water levels o Treatment and cleaning volume, and pollution) o Pollutant plants may go o Treatment up pollution raise pollutant o Warmer concentrations offline during infrastructure may concentration in temperatures may may increase if intense floods be susceptible to receiving waters increase toxicity of sources stay the flooding pollutants same and flow o Sewage may mix diminishes with seawater in combined sewer systems o Contaminated sites may flood or have shoreline erosion o Sewer pipes may have more inflow (floods) or infiltration (higher water table) Controlling o Wildfires o Longer growing o Higher solubility o Pollution o Streams may o Tidal flooding may o Decomposing nonpoint may lead to season can lead may lead to higher sources may see greater extend to new areas, organic matter soil erosion to more lawn concentration of build up on land, erosion and scour leading to additional releases carbon sources of maintenance with pollutants followed by high- sources of pollution dioxide, which o Urban areas pollution fertilizers and o Water may hold intensity flushes may be subject to may exacerbate pesticides the ocean less dissolved more floods acidification oxygen o Flood control problem in o Higher surface facilities (e.g., coastal waters temperatures may detention lead to stratification basins, manure management) may o Greater algae be inadequate growth may occur o High rainfall o Parasites, may cause septic bacteria may have systems to fail greater survival or transmission
Table 3-1b. PoTenTial climaTe change risks for habiTaT Checklist of potential climate change risks for habitat for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act habitat goals. Clean Water Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean Act goals summers winters water drought storminess acidification Restoring o Higher o Less snow, o Warmer water o Groundwater o The number of o Shoreline erosion and temperatures more rain may may lead to greater tables may drop storms reaching may lead to loss of may lead change the likelihood of an intensity that beaches, wetlands protecting to greater runoff/infiltration stratification o Base flow in causes problems and salt marshes physical and evaporation balance; base flow streams may may increase hydrologic and lower in streams may decrease o Saline water groundwater change o Stronger storms may move farther features tables o Stream water may cause more upstream and o A spring may become intense flooding freshwater habitat o Switching runoff pulse may warmer and runoff may become between disappear along brackish surface and with the snow o Increased o Coastal groundwater human use of overwash or island o Tidal influence sources for o Rivers may no groundwater breaching may may move farther public water longer freeze; a during drought occur upstream supplies may spring thaw would may reduce affect the be obsolete stream baseflow o Turbidity of o Bulkheads, sea integrity of surface waters walls and revetments water bodies o Marshes and o New water may increase may become more beaches may supply reservoirs widespread o Greater erode from loss of may affect o Increased electricity protecting ice the integrity intensity of demand of freshwater precipitation may affect streams may yield less operation infiltration decisions at hydropower dams Constructing o Desired fish o Stream erosion o Light may not o Long-term reefs to may no longer be may lead to penetrate through shellfish present high turbidity deeper water sustainability promote fish and greater may be an open and shellfish o Warmer water sedimentation o Higher salinity may question may promote kill targeted species invasive species or o Lower pH from o Fish may disease NPS pollution be adversely may affect target affected during species development stages
Table 3-1c. PoTenTial climaTe change risks for fish, wildlife and PlanTs Checklist of potential climate change risks for fish, wildlife and plants for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the three highly related listed Clean Water Act fish, wildlife and plants goals. Clean Water Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean Act goals summers winters water drought storminess acidification Protecting and o Species o Species that o Newly invasive o Species may o Greater soil o Sea level may push o Corrosive propagating that won’t used to migrate species may appear not tolerate a erosion may saltier water farther waters may tolerate away may stay all new drought increase turbidity upstream (especially impact shellfish fish, shellfish warmer winter o Habitat may regime and decrease of interest with development and wildlife summers may become unsuitably water clarity regard to shellfish die/migrate; o Species that warm, for a species o Native habitat habitat) o Shellfish biota at the once migrated or its food may be affected o Greater soil predators may southern limit through may stop if freshwater erosion may o Light may not not survive the of their range and stay o Heat may stress flow in streams increase sediment penetrate through disappearance Controlling immobile biota may disappear is diminished or deposition in the full depth of of shellfish nonnative from o Pests may eliminated estuaries, with deeper water and invasive ecosystems survive winters o Dissolved oxygen consequences for o Fish may that used to kill capacity of water o Changing benthic species o Greater coastal be adversely species may drop o Species them freshwater wetland losses may affected during may be inputs may occur development weakened o Invasive species o Some fish affect salinity stages by by heat and may move into reproduction distribution changes to Maintaining become out- places that used may require cold in estuaries water chemistry biological competed to be too cold temperatures; other (especially of reproductive cycles interest with o The effect integrity and o Some plants are tied to water of ocean o Essential regard to reintroducing food sources may need a temperature shellfish habitat) acidification native species may die off “setting” cold on calcifying or disappear, temperature o Coral bleaching plankton affecting the episodes may may lead to food web o A longer increase cascading growing season effects in the o Species may lead to an o Parasites and food chain may need extra reproductive diseases are to consume cycle enhanced by more water as warmer water temperature o Food supplies rises and bird migrations may be mis-timed
Table 3-1d. PoTenTial climaTe change risks for recreaTion and Public waTer suPPlies Checklist of potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act recreation and public water supplies goals. Clean Water Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean Act resource summers winters water drought storminess acidification goals Restoring o More o Harmful algal o Freshwater flows in o More frequent o Beaches or public o Eco-tourism and people using blooms may be streams may not support or more intense access sites may resources or water for more likely recreational uses storms may be lost to coastal attractions maintaining recreation decrease erosion or inundation (e.g., birding, recreational may raise the o Jellyfish may be o Increased estuary recreational diving, fishing) activities, in potential for more common salinity may drive away opportunities o Clearance may be pathogen targeted recreational fish under bridges may degraded and on the exposure o Fishing seasons o Greater NPS decrease water and fish may o Recreational pollution may become misaligned shellfish impair recreation harvesting o Desired may be lost recreational fish may no longer be present o Invasive plants may clog creeks and waterways Protecting o Warmer o Summer o Changes in o Lower freshwater flows o Water o Sea level may push public water temperatures water treatment processes may not keep saltwater infrastructure may salt fronts upstream may drive supplies that may be required downstream of intakes be vulnerable to past water diversions supplies greater water depend on flooding demand winter snow o Increased o Groundwater tables o Water pack may growth of algae may drop o Flood waters infrastructure may o Evaporation disappear and microbes may may raise be vulnerable to losses from affect drinking water o Coastal aquifers downstream inundation or erosion reservoirs and o Cold places quality may be salinized from turbidity and groundwater may see more insufficient freshwater affect water o Saltwater intrusion may increase freeze/thaw input quality into groundwater cycles that may be more likely can affect o Coastal aquifers may infrastructure be salinized from higher demand on groundwater o Maintaining passing flows at diversions may be difficult
Table 3-1e(i). PoTenTial climaTe change risks for human healTh Checklist of potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act recreation and public water supplies goals. Public Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean Health Goals summers winters water drought storminess acidification Protecting o Increasingly o Extended o Harmful algal Drought may lead o Increased o Tidal flow into people from favorable seasons for blooms, bacteria, to warmer water stormwater runoff combined sewer conditions for disease vectors, and protozoa that temperatures if and combined systems may vector or bacteria like such as ticks flourish in warmer depths gets shallower sewer overflows lead to overflows pathogenic Salmonella may and mosquitos, water may cause or if cold water inputs (CSOs) may increase that increase diseases increase food may lead to sickness in people diminish. See the the spread of the spread of poisoning more human engaged in water- Warmer Water column pathogens to pathogens infections related activities for associated risks humans o Expansion of o Higher water the geographic o Disease o HABs and o Floods or higher tables may cause range of pests vectors that waterborne o Turning to unsafe groundwater levels water intrusion and parasites, survive through diseases may water sources for may lead to water into buildings such as mosquitos winter without spread to new irrigation may spread intrusion into leading to mold and ticks, may dying off may areas that used E. Coli and Salmonella buildings that can and reduced increase disease infect more to be too cold for cause mold and indoor air quality exposure humans these pathogens o Evaporation reduce indoor air to survive may lead to higher quality o A wider concentrations of distribution of o Warmer waters pathogens in streams o Flooded areas pests, parasites affect the growth and rivers may serve as and pathogens and distributions breeding pools for may increase of pathogens that o Drought may mosquitos carrying pesticide use and accumulate in increase dust diseases human exposure fish and shellfish, storms and airborne to chemical increasing both transmission of fungal o Abandoned contaminants the geographic pathogens storm-damaged and seasonal properties may ranges where o Increased dust attract rodent people are at deposits into aquatic populations that risk of shellfish systems may increase carry pathogens poisoning harmful algal blooms o Rodents that carry pathogens may enter dwellings when searching for water
Table 3-1e(ii). PoTenTial climaTe change risks for human healTh Checklist of potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act recreation and public water supplies goals. Public Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level Ocean Health Goals summers winters water drought storminess rise acidification Protecting o Higher rates of evaporation o A longer o Higher o Fine particulates o During extreme events, rain, o Saltwater o Subsistence people from may worsen droughts and pollen evaporation from wildfires may wind or waves may produce intrusion communities wildfires season may rates may aggravate more injuries or deaths into aquifers may face environ worsen reduce cardiovascular and may salinize shortages of o Higher temperatures may o Storms that lead to mental cause occupational health allergies drinking respiratory diseases homelessness, relocation potable key shellfish effects on and asthma water o Water shortages or separation may increase freshwater resources hazards, especially for those episodes supplies may cause crop anxiety and Posttraumatic sources health and working outdoors well-being o Greater o More failures and rising Stress Disorder o Higher temperatures may time spent water-related prices that affect o Storms may increase cause more heat stroke, outside may recreation the food choices economic strain from damage dehydration increase can lead to people make or loss of income o Hot stagnant air with higher hazards increases in o Financial-related o Public health services may particulate matter and ozone associated swimming stress or forced be disrupted by damaged (smog) levels may exacerbate with outdoor or boating migration from health care facilities, asthma & cardiovascular disease activity accidents drought and wild interrupted communication, o Higher temperatures may o Warmer fires may impact offline utilities, or emergency increase air conditioning usage temperature mental health responders being exposed to and produce more emissions of cooling o In areas without dangers that impair air quality water fire hydrants, o After extreme events, o Higher CO2 levels and sources may surface water affect power personal health efforts may be expansion of the geographic sources may dry up generation disrupted if prescriptions are range for allergy-inducing making it harder to and unfillable, devices are lost, or species may worsen asthma and put out dangerous endanger mobility is limited other allergic illnesses fires those who o Floodwaters may spread o Greater rates of violent crime depend on o Drought may hazardous materials to areas may occur on hotter days electricity cause water scarcity where clean up workers may o Greater demand for electricity for health o Lower water come in contact with them may lead to blackouts and maintenance levels in hydropower o The use of portable electric brownouts that affect people reservoirs may generators after a storm who rely on electricity for health impact electricity may cause carbon monoxide maintenance production and poisoning o Higher temperatures may endanger those who rely on heating, o Flooding at drinking or exacerbate cases where ventilating and wastewater facilities may medication is impairing the air conditioning increase exposure to untreated body’s ability to regulate heat (HVAC), or electrical sewage or limit availability of equipment drinking water
Table 3-1f. PoTenTial climaTe change risks for floodPlain managemenT Checklist of potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act recreation and public water supplies goals. Higher magnitude flood events or more frequent occurrences of flooding, will amplify the numerous and well known social, economic and environmental impacts of flooding that are the very reason for floodplain management. This checklist focuses on natural infrastructure and changes to the probability of flooding. Many of the risks stemming from places becoming flooded are in other checklists in this series: they are particularly associated with the “increasing storminess” and “sea level rise” stressors; see the public health checklist for potential human impacts. Floodplain Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean Manage - summers winters water drought storminess acidification ment Goals Under o Increased o Warmer o Stratification o As drought o The past will be less o A rising sea level will continuously standing demand for winters may may affect flood years are useful for understanding increase the likelihood of coastal summertime lead to earlier hydrodynamics added to future risk flooding the water may snowmelt the historical probability change how and result o Temperature record they o Increased precipitation o Higher sea level may change the of flooding reservoirs are in higher driven changes may alter may stress stormwater floodplains of coastal streams managed in springtime to viscosity may statistics infrastructure leading to the winter and flows and affect sediment of the more nuisance flooding o Regular nuisance flooding from spring lower summer transport and probability high tides will increase in low lying flows bed roughness of flooding o Flood control facilities coastal areas (e.g., detention basins, o Changes in o Long dams, dikes and levees) o Higher water may decrease temperature periods of may fail protection from breakwaters, sea may affect drought may walls, bulkheads, revetments, dikes aquatic increase or levees vegetative the relative productivity proportion o Seawater inflow to storm sewers affecting flood of rainfall may reduce their capacity to handle storage, water runoff and stormwater runoff quality, and contribute to habitat flooding o Stormwater outfalls may become submerged, affecting how the ser vice area drains Protecting o Changes in o Warmer o Increasing o Increased precipitation o Bulkheads, seawalls, and o Degrada hydrologic temperature temperatures drought may can lead to bank erosion revetments may become more tion of oyster may affect may lead to affect and stream channel widespread with detrimental effects reefs or coral features terrestrial more vegeta floodplain changes on tidal wetlands and intertidal reefs may and vegetative tion through vegetation, habitat increase beneficial productivity, the winter, which could o Flood protection damages from which in turn which may impact the structures may become o Higher water tables may affect storm waves functions of may impact impact flood protection more prevalent and floodplain storage floodplains flood storage storage and benefits of impact overall floodplain and water water quality floodplains function o Low elevation uplands will quality as well as transition to wetlands, wetlands biological o Natural features, will transition to open water productivity, engineered nature- and wildlife based features or habitat green infrastructure that provides beneficial functions could be damaged
Table 3-1g. PoTenTial climaTe change risks for weTland habiTaTs Checklist of potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act recreation and public water supplies goals. This checklist focuses on the wetland habitat type specifically, and it should be used in conjunction with the habitats checklist in this series which has other general habitat risks that are also relevant to wetlands. Drought may lead to warmer water if depth becomes shallower or if cold water inputs diminish. See the Warmer Water column for associated risks. Wetlands Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean Goals summers winters water drought storminess acidification Maintaining o Higher temperatures may o Winter ice may o Warmer o Water levels in o Greater amounts of o Tidal influence hydrology lead to greater evaporation not form, or may water may streams and lakes rainfall may cause more may move farther and lower groundwater melt quicker lead to greater may drop and intense flooding and runoff upstream tables likelihood of groundwater may o Less snow, o Increased intensity of o Tidal restrictions water column be reduced o Greater upstream water more rain may precipitation may yield more (e.g., undersized stratification usage may impact change the runoff/ o Wetlands runoff and less infiltration culverts, road downstream freshwater infiltration may become o Turbidity of surface crossings) may supply or estuarine salinity balance; base flow disconnected waters may increase exacerbate flooding in streams may from bays, lakes change, impacting or streams o Wind-driven currents freshwater may alter customary flow availability patterns Protecting o Higher evaporation may o Typical insect o Organisms o Water scarcity o Floodwaters may spread o Sea level may o Shellfish and worsen drought and wildfire die-offs in winter that have may adversely hazardous materials to soils push saltwater mortality may may decrease, narrow aquatic affect wetland- and throughout watersheds farther upstream, increase due restoring o Species may be weakened impacting both temperature dependent plants impacting sensitive to increased and become out-competed o Flooding at drinking or wetland by native or invasive species flora and fauna ranges may and animals wastewater facilities may species acidity of species in terrestrial and be further increase risk of spills or aquatic o Biota at the limit of their aquatic habitats constrained or habitat overflows into sensitive ranges or with temperature- stressed o Increase in habitat dependent life stages may mosquito larvae disappear from ecosystems may affect food o Essential food sources supply for birds and may die off or disappear other predators Protecting o Marshes and o Higher rate o Wetland plants o Shoreline erosion may o Salt water may o Higher and beaches may of evaporation may shift their lead to loss of beaches, move farther up concentration erode due to loss may raise habitat ranges— wetlands, and salt marshes stream and habitats of hydrogen restoring of protecting ice salinity in into, away may become more ions in water o Damage to mangrove wetland coastal waters from, or to stands may affect feeding, brackish column could habitat larger/smaller have o Temperature mating, nesting, and resting o Changing proportions of a consequences changes affect areas for birds and reptiles salinity may have a place for sensitive rates of nutrient large effect on meth o Damage or loss of organisms and chemical ane release from soils seagrass beds may affect reactions critical habitat and food o Mudflat changes sources may make it more difficult for birds to access food
Table 3-2. organizaTional goals Checklist of potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act recreation and public water supplies goals. Organizational Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Ocean Sea level rise Goals summers winters water drought storminess acidification Goal: Goal: Goal:
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