AUGUST 2021 - Edelweiss Wealth Management
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AUGUST 2021
Agenda
Pg 03 Developed Economies Leading Recovery
Pg 07 Executive Summary
Pg 10 India Macros
Pg 14 Asset Class Specific Views and Performance
Pg 26 Model Portfolio
Pg 34 Data Tables and AnnexureDeveloped Markets Lead The Recovery In
CY21 So Far
US Economic Activity Picks Pace as Jobless Claims Decline US retail sales reflecting fast recovery
30
Covid-19 Peak 8 650
25 24.9
6 600
20 6.87
Millions
Millions
In USD Billion
550
15 4
10 500
2
5 450
0 0
400
Mar-20
May-20
Dec-20
May-21
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Apr-21
Mar-21
Jun-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Jan-20
Jan-21
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
May-17
Aug-17
May-18
Aug-18
May-19
Aug-19
May-20
Aug-20
May-21
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Continued Claims (LHS) Initial Claims (RHS) Retail Sales
Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, FRED
Average manufacturing PMI for Jan-Jul 2021 Deviation of output (real GDP) from pre-pandemic projections
2 As per IMF projections, DMs will get back to pre-pandemic
70.0 Developed projected growth by 2022 whereas EMs will take longer time
Emerging
Manufacturing PMI
Markets 0
Markets
60.0
(2)
(%)
50.0 (4)
40.0 (6)
(8)
30.0 2019 2020 2021 2022
Germany European United United Canada India Turkey China Vietnam Russia Mexico
Union States Kingdom EM DM
Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research Source: IMF, Edelweiss Research 4DM’s Outperformance Reflected In Markets Too
DM equities outperform in CY21 YTD while major EMs struggle Six consecutive months of positive return for S&P 500
30 Developed 6.0%
Emerging Markets 21 22 23
20 Markets 13 13 14 15
Equity returns for CY21 YTD (%)
5.0%
7 9
10
M-o-M return (%)
1 1 2 3 4.0%
0
0
-10 3.0%
-7 -6 Indian market has been
-20 -14 -12 -11 an outlier among all EMs 2.0%
-22
-30
1.0%
Turkey
USA
Indonesia
Chile
UK
Peru
Colombia
Brazil
Germany
Venezuela
Thailand
France
Sweden
Philippines
India
Netherlands
China
Switzerland
Austria
Argentina
0.0%
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
S&P 500 monthly returns
Data Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Wealth Research Data Source: Investing.com
Run up in the US market has driven it in expensive zone Yields in DMs continue to moderate
24.00
Multi-decade high 4.0 9
22.00
20.00
3.0 7
18.00
2.0 5
%
%
(x)
16.00 1.0 3
14.00 0.0 1
12.00 -1.0 -1
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
10.00
Jul 00 Jul 03 Jul 06 Jul 09 Jul 12 Jul 15 Jul 18 Jul 21
S&P 500 12m PE ratio Long Term average US Germany UK India (RHS)
Data Source: Edelweiss Research, Bloomberg Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, Bloomberg
5Recovery In EMs Picking Up
Developed nations showed quick pace in vaccination Vaccination in EMs picking up
Developed % of population fully vaccinated 0.7
Daily vaccinations as % of Population
0.6
Markets 0.6
60.4% 59.3% 58.1%
53.4% 53.1% 0.5 0.5
50.3% 49.1%
Emerging
0.4
33.9% Markets 0.3
30.7% 0.3
20.3% 18.0% 0.2
7.9% 7.8% 0.1
0.0
May-21
Jan-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Dec-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Emerging Econnomies Emerging Economies Ex China Advanced Economies
Data Source: Google, Ourworldindata.org Data Source: Google, Ourworldindata.org, Edelweiss Wealth Researcg
Rebound in world trade augurs well for EM growth
1,00,000 150
140
90,000
Pre-GFC (2002-07) 130
80,000
World trade growth: 7.7% 120
Pre-Covid (2014-19)
USD billion
70,000 110
World GDP growth: 9.7%
Index
60,000 100
World trade growth: 1.7%
EM GDP growth: 18.8% 90
50,000
World GDP growth: 2% 80
40,000
EM GDP growth: 3.7% 70
30,000 2009 60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
World GDP (LHS) World Trade Volume Index (RHS)
6
Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, Bloomberg, World BankAsset Class View
Equity Fixed Income and Alternates
► Continued lockdowns and slow pace of vaccination are delaying economic ► As expected, RBI kept policy rates unchanged and continued with
recovery, especially when compared with developed economies. accommodative stance ensuring availability of ample liquidity as long as
needed.
► However, recovery in corporate earnings, normal monsoons and sustained
liquidity indicate limited downside in equities. Actions taken in China may ► Yields offered by fixed income instruments are expected to remain soft. While
have a positive rub off in India spreads of both AAA and AA are almost unchanged, dislocations in spreads still
persist in high yield credit which may be opportunistically used.
► We continue with marginal overweight call on equities. Superlative
performance of mid and small cap can be capitalised by booking ► Core allocation to high quality credit with diversification across investible
profits and trimming down the exposure as per respective risk profiles. credit spectrum in yield oriented HTM solutions is advisable.
Investment Strategy Investment Strategy
► Strategic – Strong businesses across market capitalization ► Strategic – High quality credit with comparatively higher yields
► Deployment – Staggered Deployment over 60 days ► Tactical – High yielding credit of issuers with sound business practices
► Alternates – Exposure to Gold – buy on dips
► Tactical – Long Short and Pre-IPO opportunities
► Investments with predictable and regular cashflow
Shortlisted Products Shortlisted Products
► SP
► Large Cap ► CAT II AIF
► Index Funds/ ETFs ► InvIT/ REIT
► Multi/ Flexi Cap ► Debt ETF/Index
► PE ► Corp Bond Funds
► Mid and small Cap ► Credit Risk Funds
► International ► Gold ETF
► Absolute Return Fund
8Model Portfolio & Asset Allocation Summary
Strategic and tactical asset allocation
Equity Fixed Income
Substantially undeployed / ► Deploy in 4 equal tranches over next 60 days to ► Immediate Deployment in good quality credit where
Fresh Capital to invest take equity deployment to level as per your risk yields are comparatively higher as well as in high
profile yielding credit with select issuers
Deployed as per strategic ► Increase equity exposure to marginal overweight ► Review the underlying credit exposures
allocation as per respective risk profile. Product categories as (direct/indirect) and reallocate, if needed.
provided in model portfolio can be considered.
Conservative Portfolio Moderate Portfolio Aggressive Portfolio
75% 71.25% 55%
51.25% 48.75% 68.75%
45% 60%
Model Portfolio vis-a 40%
vis Tactical Asset 28.75% 31.25%
25%
Allocation for Existing
Clients*
Equity Fixed Income Equity Fixed Income Equity Fixed Income
Model Portfolio Current Allocation Model Portfolio Current Allocation Model Portfolio Current Allocation
* Current/ Tactical Equity Allocation includes allocation to gold
Please contact your financial advisor for more details & strategy 9Economic Recovery From Recent Lows..
Mobility picks up in July while cases drop Consumption bounces back in June-21
450 30
25
20
5 350
10
Thousands
M-o-M (%)
-15 250
Index
0
-35 150
-10
-55 50
-20
-75 -50
-30
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
POL Consumption Non-Oil Imports National E-Toll 3-wheeler sales
collection
Retail_and_Recreation Grocery_and_Pharmacy Transit_stations New Covid cases (RHS)
Apr-21 (MoM) May-21 (MoM) Jun-21 (MoM)
Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, Google Mobility data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research
Vaccination in India still lacks desired momentum 38% OF THE ELIGIBLE POPULATION RECEIVED ONE JAB
70 500 60
428 404
60 55.9 400 50
50 307 299 282 40
300 270 268
Lakhs units
40 217 30
%
204 193
Lakhs
200
30 20
20 100 10
10 0 0
0 UP MH GJ RJ KTK WB MP Bihar TN AP
Feb-21
Mar-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Apr-21
May-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21 Total Doses (LHS)
% of eligible population administered with one dose (RHS)
Vaccinations (7DMA) % of eligible population fully vaccinated (RHS)
Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, Ourworldindata Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research 11..But It Is Still In Nascent Stage
GST collections in July returned to the figure of over INR 1 lakh crore Manufacturing PMI returned to expansion zone but not services
60 55.3
1.41
1.24 50 45.4
1.20 1.16
1.11 1.13
1.05 1.03 40
0.97
0.91 0.93 0.87
30
0.62 20
0.32 10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July
CY20 CY21
Manufacturing PMI Services PMI
Figures in INR lakh crore
Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, News Articles Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, News rticles
Non-food credit growth still at subdued levels
18.0
► Macro numbers like GST collections and PMI have improved
14.0
since April and May, when 2nd wave of covid had hit India.
10.0
%
► However, credit offtake is yet to take place in Indian economy
6.0
as reflected by subdued non-food credit growth numbers.
2.0
Non-food Credit gowth
Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research 12Green Shoots Are Visible
Unemployment rate has decreased after surge in May The southwest monsoon in line with anticipation so far
16
Cumulative Rainfall: Actual Cumulative Rainfall: Normal
Unemployment rate (%) 500
12 400
300
Millimetres
8
200
4 100
0
0
31-May-21
07-Jun-21
14-Jun-21
21-Jun-21
28-Jun-21
05-Jul-21
12-Jul-21
19-Jul-21
26-Jul-21
Urban Rural
Data Source: CMIE Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, News articles
Kharif sowing picks up as rainfall activity normalizes in July
8 8
7 6.79 6.92 7
5.94 5.72 6.12 ► As economic activities rebound, unemployment rate has also
6 6
Crore Hectares
Crore Hectares
5 5 moderated after surging in May.
4 4
► The forecast of monsoon being normal, food inflation which
3 3
2 2 constitutes 46% of headline inflation is likely to remain under
1 1 control.
0 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Foodgrains Sugarcane Oilseeds Fibres Total Sowing (RHS)
Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research 13Equity
Momentum In Broader Market
Pause in FII Inflow while Nifty50 remains rangebound Mid and small cap continue to outperform large cap
9000 8420 25% 35.0%
15% 24.3%
4500 3539 25.0% 22.7%
2658 2361 21.7% 20.0%
USD Million
1444
0.26% 5%
0 13.7% 13.8% 14.5%
-389 15.0%
-5%
-1294 -1513
7.0% 8.1%
-4500
-15% 5.1%
-7886 5.0% 3.1%
0.3%
-9000 -25%
Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21
-5.0%
Nifty 50 NSE Midcap 100 NSE Smallcap 100
FII Inflow in Equity Nifty50 M-o-M return - RHS
Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Jul-21
Data Source: NSE, NSDL Data Source: NSE
A broader market recovery has led to a surge in Market cap to GDP
210 ► Indian equity market remained range-bound with Nifty50
201
posting a subdued return of 0.3% in June while, NSE Midcap
Market cap to GDP ratio
140 100 and Smallcap 100 continue to outperform with 3.1% and
121 110 8.1% returns respectively.
81
70 ► Sustained global and local liquidity along with initiation of
56
vaccination around the globe continue to drive the market.
0
► Fundamental elements like earnings growth and profitability
have shown signs of recovery and are expected to continue,
USA India India LT average (Since 2003)
despite a probable blip in Q1FY22.
Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, BSE, Ycharts.com 16Buoyancy In Primary Market
2021 is turning out to be one of the best years for primary market
60000 58075
IPO issue (INR crores) 50000 47279
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
IPO Issue size
Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research
► Companies have been lining up in primary market 2021 to take advantage of one of the best years lately.
► Subsequently, demand has been aided by ample capital and liquidity in the system and boosted by substantial listing gains.
17Relative Valuation Indicator – Midcaps v Large
caps
Midcap valuations are inching towards expensive zone
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21
Overweight Large Caps Overweight Midcaps/Small Caps
► Our proprietary Relative Valuation Indicator uses Nifty (Proxy for large cap stocks), Nifty Midcap 100 (Proxy for mid cap stocks) and Nifty
Smallcap 100 (proxy for small cap stocks) and has history available since January 2004.
► Overweight call on midcap has panned out well and it would be prudent to book profits and bring mid/small cap exposure to neutral levels, as
per respective risk profiles
18Mixed Signals By Valuation Indicators
Earnings yield gap is skewed towards equity while momentum signals also are quite strong
1.0
Value As
0.9 Since Jan Decile as
Max Min of 31st Jul
2001 of Jul21
0.8 21
0.7
0.6
0.5
PE 36.34 9.15 27.32 0.9
0.4
0.3
0.2 PB 6.06 1.65 3.28 0.7
0.1 P/E Vs P/B Vs BEER Ratio Decile
0.0
BEER 1.85 0.47 1.01 0.2
PE Decile PB Decile BEER Decile
*BEER is calculated by dividing the yield of a government bond by the current earnings yield of a stock benchmark in the same market. The idea behind the BEER ratio is that if stocks are
yielding more than bonds, then they are undervalued; inversely, if bonds are yielding more than stocks, then stocks are overvalued.
Source: Bloomberg
► When conventional valuation metrics like PE and PB are considered on standalone basis, markets look to be considerably expensive
► However, when we consider like BEER ratio, they look fairly valued.
19Debt
RBI’s Accommodative Stance Continues
RBI continue to provide ample liquidity CPI surpassed level of 6% while WPI remain above 10%
RBI has cut Repo rate by
RBI has maintained surplus 14
9000 115 bps since March 6.5
2020 liquidity throughout CY20 while Although WPI is at 12.94% currently, its 2Y
continuing further in CY21 12 CAGR is at 4.9% while that of CPI is 6.2% 12.07
8000 6.0
10
7000
5.5 8
INR Billion
6.26
% Y-o-Y
6000 6
%
5.0
5000 4
4.5 2
4000
0
3000 4.0
-2
2000 3.5 -4
Interbank Liquidity Repo Rate - RHS CPI Inflation WPI Inflation
Source: Bloomberg Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, News articles
► RBI, in their policy meet concluded on 6th August, decided to keep repo rate unchanged while continuing with accommodative stance
until the growth revives on a durable basis. The decision to remain dovish came with a 5-1 vote, unlike a unanimous stand till last time.
► The GDP growth projection has been retained at 9.5% for FY22 by RBI while pointing out that the current economic recovery is still at its
nascent stage. RBI has increased the headline inflation forecast to 5.7% in FY22 as against 5.1% projected earlier.
► In line with continuing liquidity measures, RBI announced two auctions of INR 250 bn each under the GSAP 2.0 on 12th Aug and 26th
Aug, as a part of INR 1.2 tn already announced for Q2. Additionally, fresh auctions under Variable Reverse Repo Rate (VRRR) auctions to
be conducted fortnightly to a quantum of INR 4 trillion until 24th Sep 2021.This step does not amount to tightening of liquidity, rather just
a fine tuning of liquidity which shot up to INR 8.5 trillion in August.
21Yields At Longer End Spike Up
Yields at longer end hardens Leading to slight steepening of the yield curve
6.25 320 306
6.20
6.20
6.13 280
279
240
bps
6.00
5.91 200
%
5.80 5.75
5.73 160
Yields spiked up
post budget 120 99
5.60
80
5.49
5.40 40
India 5Y Gilt India 10Y Gilt India Yield Curve (10Y - 3M G-sec) LT Avg (7 years period)
Data Source: Bloomberg Data Source: Worldgovernmentbonds.com
► Yields at longer end of the curve have again spiked up to levels of 6.2% by end of July. That has prompted the sovereign yield curve
to steepen marginally.
► RBI is not looking to target yields at a certain number and giving more emphasis on orderly evolution of yield curve. It is expected,
RBI will continue to intervene in market through GSAP, OMOs etc. to continue with its dovish stance.
22Diminishing Opportunities In High Quality
Credit
Spike in corporate Bond Spreads but still below LT averages The gap between AA and AAA has widened
200 90
80 80
150 128
118 70
bps
bps
100
73 60
55
50
38 50
0 40
May-20
May-21
Dec-19
Mar-20
Apr-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Apr-21
Feb-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Jul-21
Jan-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
5 Y AAA Spread 5 Y AAA Long Term Avg 5 Y AA Spread 5 Y AA Long Term Avg 5Y AA - 5Y AAA LT average (since Jan 2014)
5 Year Bonds including Corporates, Banks & NBFCs; spreads are over 5Y G-sec 5 Year Bonds including Corporates, Banks & NBFCs
Data Source: Bloomberg Data Source: Bloomberg
► Considering spreads have reduced a lot since last year which calls for opportunistic selection of high yield credit as gap between
AA and AAA is still visible.
► High yield credit papers issued by select corporates can be considered subject to proper due diligence.
23Gold
Proprietary Gold Model
Gold prices have rallied February onwards with some correction in June
2,100 2,063
Sell call on
2,000 1st June
1,900.19
1,900
USD
1,800 1,814
-6.5%
1,779
1,700 1,724
Buy call on
Buy call on 23rd June
1,600
1st March
1,500
Data Source: Investing.com Gold in USD Buy call on
1st March
► Our model had generated a buy signal at USD 1723 on 1st March 2021 and a sell signal has been triggered on 1st June
2021. In this period, Gold has given a return of over 10%.
► Our model has re-entered gold at USD 1,779, thereby protecting investors from a ~6.5% fall in gold prices in 20 days.
25Equity: Sector Performance
Percentage Change
Index Price 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months 24 Months
Nifty 15,763 0.26% 7.74% 15.61% 42.35% 42.94%
Nifty 50 USD 7,340 0.15% 7.24% 13.35% 43.11% 22.17%
IT 30,480 4.50% 18.76% 23.67% 68.66% 134.71%
Auto 10,049 -5.21% 4.23% 2.40% 38.03% -13.46%
Bank 34,584 -0.54% 5.50% 13.15% 59.82% 26.31%
FMCG 36,052 -0.11% 7.22% 8.85% 16.78% 32.90%
Pharma 14,425 0.81% 7.10% 18.53% 29.39% 53.71%
Metals 5,770 10.63% 19.03% 87.50% 168.73% 41.92%
Infrastructure 4,432 2.14% 9.36% 20.71% 40.56% 22.46%
Real Estate 399 15.90% 28.76% 30.43% 98.33% 15.65%
PSU Bank 2,441 -3.07% 18.79% 34.58% 72.95% -33.69%
Media 1,796 -0.08% 16.02% 8.84% 39.76% -48.52%
CNX Midcap 27,815 3.13% 14.96% 33.02% 79.79% 33.82%
BSE Small Cap 26,787 6.16% 23.61% 48.91% 105.71% 43.12%
India 10 Yr Gsec Yield (Chg bps) 6.20% 15.30 17.40 29.80 36.60 -122.60
Indian Rupee 74.42 0.12% 0.45% 2.01% -0.53% 17.03%
Source: Bloomberg; Data as on 31st July 2021 27Debt: Data Table
Parameters Instruments As of 31/07/2021 As of 30/06/2021 As of 30/04/2021 As of 31/12/2020 As of 31/07/2020
Repo Rate 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
Reverse Repo Rate 3.35% 3.35% 3.35% 3.35% 3.35%
Call Rates 3.40% 3.25% 3.00% 3.35% 3.60%
FBIL Bank Offer Rate O/N 3.40% 3.36% 3.43% 3.47% 3.86%
Money
364 Days T Bills 3.73% 3.89% 3.72% 3.68% 3.52%
Market Rates
12 M CDs 3.98% 4.03% 4.13% 4.03% 4.28%
12M Commercial Paper 4.00% 4.08% 4.15% 4.35% 4.08%
3 M Certificate of Deposit 3.43% 3.43% 3.38% 3.48% 4.20%
3 M Commercial Paper 3.50% 3.53% 3.40% 3.50% 3.80%
3 Y Gilt 5.02% 5.24% 4.77% 4.95% 4.73%
Government 5 Y Gilt 5.73% 5.72% 5.77% 5.49% 4.99%
Securities 10 Y Gilt 6.20% 6.05% 6.03% 5.91% 5.84%
30 Y Gilt 7.08% 6.98% 6.78% 6.52% 6.41%
3 Year AAA 5.16% 5.40% 4.82% 4.87% 5.06%
3 Year AA 6.02% 6.25% 5.71% 5.74% 5.90%
Corporate 5 Year AAA 6.11% 5.97% 5.86% 5.70% 5.67%
Debt 5 Year AA 6.91% 6.79% 6.65% 6.36% 6.37%
10 Year AAA 6.75% 6.90% 6.72% 6.66% 6.53%
10 Year AA 7.52% 7.65% 7.49% 7.36% 7.37%
Spreads (5Year AAA - 5 Year G-Sec) 38 25 8 21 69
(bps) (5Year AA - 5 Year G-Sec) 118 107 88 88 138
Source: Bloomberg; Data as on 31st July 2021 28High Frequency Indicators
FY22YTD
Industry(YoY, %) FY21 (Avg) Jun-21* May-21* Apr-21* Mar-21* Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20
(Avg)
Credit To Industry 1.1 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.6 -0.2 -1.3 -1.2 -0.7 -1.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 2.3 1.7
Cement Production -5.0 -14.1 -7.9 -2.1 -0.3 -5.5 -5.9 -7.2 -7.3 2.8 -3.5 -14.5 -13.5 -6.8 -21.4
CV (Quarterly) -32.8 -25.2 -1.2 -20.1 -84.8
MHCV (Quarterly) -44.1 -28.6 -4.8 -48.9 -94.1
LCV (Quarterly) -27.7 -23.0 0.2 -8.5 -79.7
Coal Production -3.9 -1.1 -4.1 -3.8 2.1 -4.5 -1.9 2.1 3.3 11.7 21.2 3.4 -5.7 -15.5 -14.0
Steel Production -4.9 -11.9 -2.6 -7.3 -0.3 -1.8 2.6 2.6 -0.5 4.0 2.8 0.5 -6.5 -23.3 -40.4
Eight Core Industry -2.9 -7.7 -4.2 -1.5 0.9 -4.6 0.2 0.3 -1.4 -0.9 -0.2 -6.9 -7.6 -12.4 -21.4
IIP Mining -0.4 -8.8 -1.0 0.1 2.2 -5.5 -3.7 -4.2 -6.7 -1.3 1.4 -8.7 -12.7 -19.5 -20.4
IIP Electricity -0.5 -1.3 -4.3 3.4 6.0 0.1 5.5 5.1 3.5 11.3 4.9 -1.8 -2.5 -10.0 -14.9
IIP Manufacturing -4.5 -11.9 -8.6 -0.4 -0.5 -3.7 -2.0 2.1 -2.0 4.1 -0.2 -7.6 -11.4 -17.0 -37.9
IIP Capital Goods -14.0 -21.3 -20.5 -7.5 -4.7 -4.2 -9.6 1.5 -7.4 3.5 -1.2 -14.4 -22.8 -37.4 -65.9
IIP Infrastructure/Construction -2.7 -11.3 -5.4 -0.1 1.1 -4.7 0.3 2.7 1.7 9.9 4.0 0.0 -8.2 -18.3 -39.0
Capacity Utilisation 60.1 63.3 66.6 63.3 47.3
India Money Supply(M3) 10.7 12.2 10.7 10.3 11.1 12.2 12.8 12.1 12.4 12.5 11.6 12.2 12.6 13.2 12.4 11.7
Manufacturing PMI (abs) 51.5 50.2 48.1 50.8 55.5 55.4 57.5 57.7 56.4 56.3 58.9 56.8 52.0 46.0 47.2 30.8
FY22YTD
Services (YoY, %) FY21 (Avg) Jun-21* May-21* Apr-21* Mar-21* Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20
(Avg)
Services PMI(abs) 47.8 41.7 43.1 46.4 54.0 54.6 55.3 52.8 52.3 53.7 54.1 49.8 41.8 34.2 33.7 12.6
Credit To Services 5.9 9.2 6.0 5.8 4.4 9.3 8.4 8.8 8.8 9.5 9.1 8.6 10.1 10.7 11.2
Airport Passenger Traffic -46.2 -66.3 -60.7 -31.7 -22.5 -42.9 -46.6 -50.4 -56.5 -62.2 -69.6 -78.6 -84.2 -85.3 -97.5
Airport cargo -6.1 -27.6 -9.9 -2.3 -4.4 -8.6 -11.0 -8.9 -12.9 -13.9 -16.2 -29.4 -34.6 -40.6 -67.7
Railway Freight Traffic 5.1 0.2 5.5 4.6 5.1 4.4 5.5 8.7 8.7 9.0 15.4 15.5 3.9 -4.6 -7.7 -21.3
E-Toll collections (Inr Bn) 24.9 18.9 25.7 21.3 27.7 30.8 25.5 23.0 23.0 21.0 21.4 19.4 17.1 16.2 15.1 11.4
FY22YTD
Demand(YoY, %) FY21 (Avg) Jun-21* May-21* Apr-21* Mar-21* Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20
(Avg)
Personal Loans 12.0 10.3 11.5 12.4 12.6 9.6 9.1 9.5 10.0 9.3 9.2 10.6 11.2 10.5 10.6
Rural Wage Growth 5.2 5.7 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.3 5.0 5.0 6.4 7.6 7.9 6.8
MGNREGA Work Demanded (crores) 3.0 2.8 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 3.2 4.5 3.7
MGNREGA Work Provided (crores) 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.8 3.9 3.3
Non-Oil Imports 0.3 -13.2 2.3 -7.6 6.3 9.3 16.3 15.8 14.3 -1.2 -2.2 -14.3 -20.1 -28.5 -45.2 -43.4
Passenger cars -18.2 -13.1 -4.1 -46.2 -4.3 -6.1 4.4 -1.2 8.4 -2.8 9.7 28.9 14.1 -12.0 -58.0 -89.9
Vans -24.9 -14.2 -3.2 -67.2 -4.3 -25.1 4.3 -6.0 41.1 8.2 29.2 10.6 3.8 -18.8 -62.1 -86.4
Utility Vehicles 10.4 4.5 21.2 -16.2 26.3 12.0 45.4 37.3 19.8 17.2 20.5 24.5 15.5 13.9 -31.2 -75.5
POL Consumption -6.3 -10.3 -3.9 -11.3 -3.6 -2.0 -4.9 -3.8 -1.7 -3.5 2.5 -4.4 -16.0 -12.1 -9.0 -19.4
Two wheelers -32.3 -8.9 -20.0 -54.8 -22.1 1.9 10.2 6.6 7.4 13.4 16.9 11.6 3.0 -15.2 -38.6 -83.8
Three wheelers -23.4 -65.7 -21.7 -29.2 -19.2 -21.0 -33.8 -56.8 -58.9 -57.6 -60.9 -71.9 -75.3 -77.2 -80.2 -95.3
Consumer Price Inflation 5.6 6.2 6.3 6.3 4.3 5.5 5.0 4.1 4.6 6.9 7.6 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.2 6.3
Core CPI( ex food and fuel) 6.1 5.5 6.2 6.6 5.5 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.1 4.9
Wholesale Price Inflation 11.8 1.1 12.1 12.9 10.5 7.4 4.2 2.0 1.2 2.3 1.3 1.3 0.2 -0.3 -1.8 -3.4
*2-Year CAGR instead of YoY 29
Source: Edelweiss Wealth ResearchHigh Frequency Indicators
FY22TD as FY21 as
Fiscal- Centre (INR tn) Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20
a % BE a % BE
GST 25.4 81.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6
Total Receipts 17.9 104.5 2.1 1.5 2.6 1.3 1.6 2.9 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.2
Total Expenditure 13.7 102.6 2.5 2.3 6.9 3.0 2.4 3.7 2.5 1.8 2.3 1.9 2.4 3.0 2.0
Capital Expenditure 11.3 98.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Revenue Expenditure 14.1 102.3 2.4 1.8 6.7 2.6 1.8 3.1 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.7 1.8
E-Way Bills (Vol. Cr.) - - 5.5 3.8 5.8 7.1 6.4 6.3 6.4 5.8 6.4 5.7 4.9 4.8 4.3 2.5
FY22YTD
External/ Markets FY21 (Avg) Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20
(Avg)
Indian Rupee(USD/INR) 73.8 74.2 73.6 73.3 74.5 72.8 72.8 73.1 73.6 74.2 73.5 73.5 74.7 75.0 75.7 75.7
REER 36 trade weighted 119.8 121.2 121.2 121.2 121.0 123.1 122.0 118.8 118.8 116.8 117.6
FX Reserves USD Bn 598.4 547.2 609 598 588 579 584.0 590.0 580.1 574.8 560.7 542.0 541.4 534.6 506.8 493.5
Trade Balance USD Bn -10.3 -8.2 -9.4 -6.3 -15.1 -13.9 -12.6 -14.5 -15.4 -9.8 -8.7 -2.7 -6.8 -4.8 0.8 -3.1
Services Surplus USD Bn 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.7 7.9 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.2 6.8 7.0 7.0 6.8
Crude Indian Basket 67.4 44.6 72.0 67.0 63.3 64.8 61.4 54.6 49.9 43.5 40.8 41.4 44.2 43.3 40.6 29.7
CAD % GDP 1.3 -1.0 -0.2 2.4 3.9
GSEC 10-Yr Yield % 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.99 6.07 6.19 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.1
NIFTY 1-Month Return % 2.3 4.7 0.9 6.5 -0.4 1.1 6.6 -2.5 7.8 11.4 3.5 -1.2 2.8 7.5 7.5 -2.8
FY22YTD
Flows FY21 (sum) Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20
(Sum)
FII Net Debt USD Bn -0.9 -4.6 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 1.0 -0.5 0.8 -0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -2.7
FII Net Equity USD Bn 0.5 36.8 1.5 0.8 -1.7 2.4 3.0 1.9 7.3 9.6 2.5 -0.8 6.1 1.2 2.5 1.7
Net FDI FLOWS USD Bn 11.9 43.9 9.1 2.8 1.8 -2.9 3.5 6.5 7.2 3.7 2.9 18.1 3.5 -0.8 0.2
Private Transfers USD Bn 73.6 18.9 19.3 18.4 17.0
ECB USD Bn 3.0 34.6 0.7 2.3 9.2 2.3 3.7 2.9 2.0 2.0 5.2 1.6 2.1 1.0 1.5
MFs Net Equity INR Bn 195.1 -259.6 59.9 100.8 34.4 91.1 -45.3 -92.5 -101.5 -129.1 -27.2 -7.3 -40.0 -24.8 2.4 52.6
SIP Flows Bn 265.7 960.6 91.6 88.2 85.9 91.8 75.2 80.2 84.2 73.0 78.0 77.9 77.9 78.3 79.2 81.2
India Mobility (Base:100) 69.4 73.2 75.9 54.5 77.8 92.8 88.0 87.2 87.2 81.3 77.3 71.0 62.6 59.6 61.6 46.7
*2-Year CAGR instead of YoY 30
Source: Edelweiss Wealth ResearchDisclaimer
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Entity Name Edelweiss Securities Limited
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31Disclaimer
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. This document should not be considered as an Investment advice. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to
be reliable. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document
should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own Investment advisors
to determine the merits and risks of such investments. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risk. Kindly read the offer document / schemes document carefully
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numerous market factors, including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes in interest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government imposed exchange controls
which could affect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs and Currency Derivatives, whose values are affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
The data contained in this document is only indicative / illustrative. Before opening any attachments please check them for viruses and defects.
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Entity Name Edelweiss Global Wealth Management Limited
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32Disclaimer
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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This document is prepared by Edelweiss Securities Ltd.. Edelweiss Securities Ltd. provided this document to Edelweiss Broking Ltd (EBL) for distributing to EBL’s client in India and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any
financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. This document should not be considered as an Investment advice. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. This document is
provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such
investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own Investment advisors to determine the
merits and risks of such investments. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risk. Kindly read the offer document / schemes document carefully before making an
investment.
This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in
part, for any purpose. This document is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or
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in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. EBL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to its clients. Neither EBL nor any
of its associates, group companies, directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including loss of revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of
the information. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The information
provided in these document / remains, unless otherwise stated, the copyright of EBL. All layout, design, original artwork, concepts and other Intellectual Properties, remains the property and copyright of EBL and may not be used in any form or for any
purpose whatsoever by any party without the express written permission of the copyright holders.
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EBL and its associates, officer, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company(ies), mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities
and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the subject company/company(ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or have other potential/material conflict of
interest with respect to any information and opinions at the time of publication of document. EBL may have proprietary long/short position in the above mentioned scrip(s) and therefore should be considered as interested. The views provided herein are
general in nature and do not consider risk appetite or investment objective of any particular investor; readers are requested to take independent professional advice before investing. This should not be construed as invitation or solicitation to do business
with EBL. Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including the following: ( i) exchange rates can be volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; ( ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous
market factors, including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes in interest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government imposed exchange controls which could
affect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs and Currency Derivatives, whose values are affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
The data contained in this document is only indicative / illustrative. Before opening any attachments please check them for viruses and defects.
The data would be provided to the clients on an "as is" and "where-is" basis, without any warranty. Edelweiss or its subsidiaries and associated companies shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in providing the data due to
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by the Edelweiss or its subsidiaries and associated companies.
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