AUDITED RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30 JUNE 2021 - Discovery
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Global Network USA Discovery Health Discovery Insure Discovery Invest Discovery Bank Vitality Health Discovery Life Vitality Invest Vitality Life Vitality Car Life COVID-19 New business Normalised NHE before forex Normalised Headline provisions operating profit impact headline earnings earnings R2.8bn +11% +7% +12% -9% +909% to R22 595m to R6 494m to R3 711m to R3 406m to R2 986m +9% core new business API, i.e. excluding DH take-on of new closed schemes and gross revenue for Vitality Group 2
The period under review Navigating the significant impact of COVID-19; meeting our Navigating 1 COVID-19 core purpose and serving society by ensuring quick and efficient vaccination of all South Africans Resilient Resilient performance with operating profit up 7%, new 2 operating business up 11% and actuarial dynamics in line with expectation performance Capital strength and liquidity remained a key focus - all Capital strength 3 and liquidity metrics above target and with sufficient buffers Require capital for Ping An Health to support business growth and product diversification Three A pivot to growth by capitalising on the applicability of the 4 dimensions Vitality Shared-value model to ensure: a) Organic growth of growth b) Geographic growth c) Platform-led growth 3
Our strategic response to the pandemic Employee vaccine Structural and pricing Central role in state-led mandate changes to products COVID-19 response Implement mandatory vaccination Preferred premiums for vaccinated DL 9 DH vaccination sites policy from 1 January 2022 members 1 000 staff deployed DSY offices and sites become Product incentives to vaccinate >550 000 vaccinations administered vaccination-only zones - c5% of total national vaccinations cR200m allocated to campaign (R42m in this period) Protect Protect and support our Support our people clients our country Maintain financial strength and resilience R2 800m Life provisions across the Group R2 448m DL earnings impact for period under review 5
COVID-19 in South Africa was worse than predicted DSY predicted the DSY underestimated the peak of Wave 2 and the timing and extent of Wave 3 first wave well Deaths (90% excess deaths) Initial predicted deaths to Orig. Beta Delta Dec 20, at May 2020 16,000 Infectious variant coincided with Delay in vaccination 87k Discovery medium 14,000 holiday season CFR for Beta variant higher programme Higher proportion of 12,000 infections in younger 48k ASSA Scenario 1 10,000 age groups 90% excess DSY 50k prediction for 8,000 Government deaths model current FY 6,000 12k PANDA 4,000 2,000 76k Actual deaths - (90% Excess deaths) 6
SA’s epidemic was 5x worse than the UK’s 160,000 16,000 450,000 9,000 Deaths (90% excess) New cases New cases Deaths 140,000 14,000 400,000 8,000 350,000 7,000 120,000 12,000 300,000 6,000 100,000 10,000 Vaccinations 80,000 8,000 250,000 decouple 5,000 200,000 infections 4,000 60,000 6,000 150,000 and deaths 3,000 40,000 4,000 100,000 2,000 20,000 2,000 50,000 1,000 - - - - 20200503 20200517 20200531 20200614 20200628 20200712 20200726 20200809 20200823 20200906 20200920 20201004 20201018 20201101 20201115 20201129 20201213 20201227 20210110 20210124 20210207 20210221 20210307 20210321 20210404 20210418 20210502 20210516 20210530 20210613 20210627 20210711 20210725 20210808 20200503 20200517 20200531 20200614 20200628 20200712 20200726 20200809 20200823 20200906 20200920 20201004 20201018 20201101 20201115 20201129 20201213 20201227 20210110 20210124 20210207 20210221 20210307 20210321 20210404 20210418 20210502 20210516 20210530 20210613 20210627 20210711 20210725 20210808 Infections Deaths Infections Deaths Deaths Implied % population Deaths Implied % population IFR Population IFR Population (90% excess) infections infected (90% excess) infections infected 0.39% - 0.5% 215k 45m 60m 70% - 80% 1.09% 132k 12m 68m 18% Given SA’s younger age profile, expect deaths to be 64% lower, but when adjusting for population size (12% smaller) the data indicates epidemic currently 5.5x worse than UK 7
Factors that influence COVID-19 waves COVID Wave = (1-Immunity) x P(contact) x Risk index Population 70%-80% Behaviour Mobility Social distancing Resilience index immunity of the population Mask wearing infected Life COVID-19 mortality rate by Vitality status Reinfection 20%-25% COVID-19 Unknown rates of the population variants re-infected Vaccines 24% Community Changing of the population prevalence vaccinated >90% effective in reducing death 1 Risk of (re)infection At least 40% of the population are still vulnerable to new or reinfection 2 Reduced vulnerability Vaccinated and previously infected people have far higher levels of protection New variants are emerging constantly, e.g. C1.2. Awaiting data but probably lower 3 New variants risk than Delta 4 Vaccination Significant additional protection against severe disease and death 8 https://sacoronavirus.co.za/latest-vaccine-statistics/
Data supports efficacy of vaccination against COVID-19 COVID-19 vaccination reduces Vaccine is >90% effective in reducing death risk of mortality relative to Discovery Health data on vaccine effectiveness* influenza1 Confirmed Deaths per million of the population Admission High care/ICU Death infection Reduction in Reduction in Reduction in Reduction in 50-80% risk relative to 70-85% risk relative to unvaccinated 70-90% risk relative to >90% risk relative to unvaccinated unvaccinated unvaccinated 100 100 100 100 1 813 90 90 90 90 80 80 80 80 70 70 70 70 8-10x 60 60 60 60 impact of flu 28% 50 40 50 40 50 40 50 40 reduction if 30 30 30 30 vaccinated 20 20 20 20 208 150 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 Without a Influenza With a COVID J&J Pfizer J&J Pfizer J&J Pfizer J&J Pfizer COVID vaccine vaccine J & J 28+ days since vaccination2 Pfizer 7+ days - second dose3 1 Surveillance of influenza and other respiratory viruses in the UK Winter 2019 to 2020 2 Sisonke and SAMRC, test negative refreshed to 17 July 9 3 Test negative study refreshed to 15 August *Excludes data on members vaccinated in the public sector. To be submitted for peer review and publication
Demand generation is paramount to ensure capacity utilisation Vaccination Profile (doses) Stock Profile Slow take up in Discovery clients younger cohorts vaccinated* by age band 350 - 168 154 231 212 185 140 204 250 325 315 275 355 320 370 Constraints Delivery schedule First dose ramp up per age group Supply Demand 18 80% 80% Millions 2.5 16 76% Millions Millions 70% 70% Millions 14 65% 2.0 60% 60% 12 55% 54% 9 weeks 50% 50% 1.5 10 6 weeks 7 weeks 40% 40% 40% 8 1.0 4 weeks 4 weeks 30% 6 30% 25% 5 weeks 22% 4 20% 20% 0.5 2 10% 10% 4% 0.0 0 0% 0% 2-Aug 16-Aug 30-Aug 13-Sep 27-Sep 8-Nov 5-Jul 11-Oct 25-Oct 19-Jul 2 Aug 16 Aug 30 Aug 13 Sep 27 Sep 06 Dec 5-Jul 19 Jul 08 Nov 22 Nov 11 Oct 25 Oct 10-May 24-May 21-Jun 19-Jul 2-Aug 16-Aug 30-Aug 7-Jun 5-Jul 10-May 24-May 21-Jun 19-Jul 2-Aug 16-Aug 7-Jun 5-Jul 60+ 50-59 J&J Pfizer first Pfizer second J&J Pfizer 35-49 18-34 >101k Outbound calls Underutilised Daily doses based >19m Emails and SMSes sent xx capacity on a 6 day week *partial or fully 10
The likelihood of a mortality impact in the 4th wave is low 4th wave depends on the R factor and proportion of people Encouraging Discovery population infected. Given the high infection rate, together with vaccines, to get vaccinated higher 4th wave mortality would require very high assumed R1 National incremental deaths scenarios Actual % vaccinated FY20 FY21 FY22 At least partially 2,000 vaccinated Fully vaccinated 1,800 Total Members 90% excess Low Medium High No over age 60 deaths Vaccine lives over age 60 1,600 Total (k) 235 240 245 265 Health 51.2% 76.2% 64.4% 1,400 Individual 1,200 Life2 61.8% 76.6% 62.1% 1,000 Group Life2 51.1% 78.4% 62.8% 800 Aiming to vaccinate 600 400 >80% 60+yrs members by end September 200 >80% whole book by end 2021 - 100% take-up of the 2nd dose where applicable 20200201 20200219 20200308 20200326 20200413 20200501 20200519 20200606 20200624 20200712 20200730 20200817 20200904 20200922 20201010 20201028 20201115 20201203 20201221 20210108 20210126 20210213 20210303 20210321 20210408 20210426 20210514 20210601 20210619 20210707 20210725 20210812 20210830 20210917 20211005 20211023 20211110 20211128 20211216 20220103 20220121 20220208 20220226 20220316 20220403 20220421 20220509 20220527 20220614 20220702 20220720 20220807 20220825 20220912 20220930 20221018 20221105 20221123 20221211 20221229 1 R assumption peaks at 1.5 in Medium, 1.6 in High and 2.0 in New variants 11 2 Sum assured weighted
Intent to implement mandatory vaccination policy from 1 January 2022 >220k excess deaths since May 2020 >30k Unprecedented health tragedy; with the fourth 1 wave posing further risk >14k client deaths 20 employee deaths Lives saved if >60% population vaccinated over coming months Compared to those who are unvaccinated: 890k vaccinated enhance and protect their lives 300k individuals outside of this 6 Supported by a legal obligation to protect and safeguard all employees from all potential risks 12
Increasing the COVID-19 provision in SA, and releasing in the UK Discovery Life Vitality Life Provisions and positive lapse experience in Individual Life more than sufficient to cover in- Provisions more than sufficient period COVID-19 claims, net loss recorded in Group Life due to UK’s effective and early vaccine campaign Income statement impact COVID-19 provisions COVID-19 provisions 500 (R2 448m) (R1 058m) R2 693m 0 £28.8m -500 R2 160m -1000 -1500 -2000 -2500 £5.4m -3000 Individual Life* Group Life New AURR Group FY21 earnings FY20 earnings individual Life Life impact impact 30-Jun-20 30-Jun-21 30-Jun-20 30-Jun-21 provisions net of In period COVID-19 margins impact net of provisions and lapse gains R2 800m Life provisions across the Group R2 448m DL earnings impact for period under review 13 *Claims provision release of R1175m + lapse gain of R831m minus identified COVID-19 claims of R1673m
2 Resilient operating performance
Resilient performance +7% +11% R6.5bn R22.6bn Operating profit New business Continued operational excellence, growth in DHMS lives and providing significant support Health 3 423 +7% 6 453 +6%* to members and society Significant negative COVID-19 mortality impact but delivering positive actuarial variances Life 1 341 -55% 2 264 -1% through excellent retention experience and maintaining financial strength Strong earnings growth, retention and excellent investment returns for customers. New Invest 1 084 +31% 2 737 +3% business growth curtailed by lower guaranteed plan sales Strong new business growth and robust underwriting performance with earnings impacted Insure 250 +2% 1 287 +18% by lower investment yields >81 000 Strong high-quality client and deposit growth while deliberately pursuing a prudent, Bank (1 094) -7% New-to-Bank +86% quality-focused credit strategy clients Robust operating performance driven by continued good retention. Careful management Vitality Health 953 +15% 1 367 +10% of delay of elective healthcare in the COVID-19 environment Strong recovery, strengthening of underlying actuarial basis and successful execution of Vitality Life 644 +337% 1 141 -9% management plan. New business slowed with lockdowns and the focus on quality business Robust growth due to increasing integration and traction with existing partners and Vitality Group 417 +35% 1 270 +12% accelerating roll-out to new markets and adjacencies Focus on profit quality and scale through both distribution channels and product Ping An Health 411 +126% 3 938 +10% diversification. Capital injection to support long-term growth Other New (978) -7% 2 114 +156% Lower spend combined with excellent growth in new business API 15 *Including new closed schemes
Operating profit and New business Operating profit New business Before SA COVID-19 impact Including new closed schemes and Vitality Group Recovered from 2020 COVID-19 Emerging and New growing strongly impact, 8% CAGR on 2019 10,000 +25% 38% 25,000 +11% 25,000 Emerging and New 8,000 +5% 20,000 +14% 20,000 11% Emerging +7% +10% Emerging and New and New 6,000 15,000 15,000 4,000 10,000 10,000 Established 2,000 5,000 5,000 - - - 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Operating profit COVID-19 impact Health Life Invest Vitality SA mortality VH VL Emerging New 16
Resilient operating performance, actuarial dynamics within expectation Health Life Invest Insure Health Life Paid up 98% 76% 76% 92% 88% 72% 150% 150% 150% 150% 150% 150% – vs expected Lapses 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Nov Jan Jul Sep Mar May Nov Jul Jan Sep Mar May Nov Nov Nov Nov Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Sep Sep Sep Sep Mar May Mar May Mar May Mar May Withdrawals 91% 100%1 82% 98% 84% 102%2 150% 150% 150% 150% 150% 150% – vs expected Claims 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Nov Jan Jul Sep Mar May Nov Jan Jul Sep Mar May Nov Jan Jul Sep Mar May Nov Jan Jul Sep Mar May Nov Jan Nov Jan Jul Jul Sep Sep Mar May Mar May FY AvE 1 Individual Life, excluding identified COVID-19 claims 17 2 Excluding identified COVID-19 claims
Reported profit for period affected by foreign exchange movements 12 months 12 months Rm ended ended % Stabilisation of long term interest Jun 2021 Jun 2020 rates in SA and the UK resulted in Normalised profit from operations 6,494 6,069 7% materially lower economic basis 1 Economic assumptions adjustment DL -411 -3,635 changes than the prior year, R4.3bn 1 Economic assumptions adjustment VL -108 -1,195 swing Finance charges excl. 1DP finance lease -1,291 -1,218 Unrealised (losses)/gains on foreign exchange contracts not designated as a hedge -304 263 Mark-to-market foreign currency 2 losses arising from a recovery of the Foreign exchange (losses)/gains -389 578 2 Rand during the reporting year Deferral fees related to Prudential Book transfer -187 -71 compared to a gain in the previous Investment income and fair value remeasurements 83 338 financial year, R1.5bn swing 3 Dilution gains from equity accounted investments 554 3 Other -234 -609 Unrealised gain from the transaction Profit before tax 4,207 523 704% 3 in which Cambridge Mobile Telematics Tax -987 -347 (CMT) acquired TrueMotion Profit attributable to preference and minority shareholders -63 -79 Profit attributable to equity holders 3,157 97 3155% Due to the continued uncertainty and potentially volatile economic environment Headline adjusting items -171 199 caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Headline earnings 2,986 296 909% Discovery Board has decided to retain its Economic assumptions adjustment (DL and VL) 383 3,584 prior stated position during the pandemic Other normalisation adjustments 37 -133 and has decided not to declare an ordinary Normalised headline earnings 3,406 3,747 -9% final dividend for the period ended 30 June 2021. The reintroduction of an ordinary Forex exchange (gains)/losses net tax 305 -424 dividend will be considered on an ongoing Normalised headline earnings excl forex impact 3,711 3,323 +12% basis 18
3 Capital strength and liquidity
Group is well capitalised and highly liquid Highly liquid across Sufficient liquidity Strongly capitalised FLR is within target the Group2 at the centre Liquid excess assets above minimum regulatory capital requirements FLR R millions SA Liquidity3 , R millions Jun 20 Jun 21 Cover Cover 29% 28% 15,000 2,000 Life 1.8x 1.8x 27% 1,500 Insure 1.8x 1.8x 25% VH 1.7x 1.6x 23% 25.7% 10,000 1,000 21% VL 2.0x 2.4x 5,000 19% 500 Bank1 1.6x 1.4x 17% PAH 1.9x 2.3x 15% - - FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 DHMS solvency 36.9% 1 Capital Adequacy Ratio 2 Considers SA Liquidity and liquid excess assets for Discovery Life, Discovery Insure, VitalityHealth, VitalityLife and Discovery Bank 20 3 SA cash + undrawn committed facilities
Cash generation positive prior to COVID-19 Gross Life Cash Cash COVID-19 Funding generated used claims R13.0bn Cash generated from in-force R3.0bn R1.0bn R14.3bn Vitality Life Net cash Tax and finance generated from Vitality Health Debt costs Cash used net of funding in-force business Reinsurers R2.6bn R13.0bn Discovery Life New business R7.9bn and Invest (R1.3bn) Net cash flow Discovery Health New businesses R1.8bn Net cash flow1 R1.3bn 1 Movement in shareholder free cash 21
Group Embedded Value 4.6% Annualised ROEV 11% excluding COVID-19, Group revenue ~25% forex and economic changes total adjusted revenue1 attributable to Emerging and New R78 608m Rm R74 645m 70,000 60,000 R70 834m 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Opening EV Value of new Unwind of risk Non-Economic COVID-19 Operational EV Economic Forex Other Closing EV 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 business discount rate Experience impact Experience Variances and Variances and Total Group Methodology & Methodology & Group excl Emerging and New Assumption Assumption Changes Changes 22 1 Including 25% Ping An Health earned premium and Bank NII and NIR and excluding insurance premium revenue from the Invest segments
4 Three dimensions of growth
Significant increase in ecosystem strategies globally Blurring of boundaries Insurtech and ecosystem Many have invested substantially into in these three trends strategies are increasing health ecosystems2 Record quarter for insurtech xx Health funding in EUR m Core business Funded health start-ups investment activity1 Funded start-ups from other ecosystems (mobility, housing, education, B2B services) 3,000 USD m 2,500 Mortality The rise of digital 2,000 Morbidity Ways of work 1,500 Driving 1,000 Ecommerce Investing 500 Telemedicine Banking - Contactless Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ESG Moral money Climate change Number of mentions of ecosystems in Social movements leading European insurers and medtech providers2 76% p.a. Sample of 20 large insurers globally have strategically invested into various ecosystems over the last few years, with health being a prominent theme (32% of investments) 8x 16x 20x 40x 77x (of 2/20) (of 4/20) (of 5/20) (of 10/20) (of 11/20) 1 CB Insights 24 2 McKinsey 2021
Evolving the business model to an ecosystem Ecosystem Composite Institution Health Life Invest Motor Bank Institution Platform Platform “Make people healthier” 25
Three dimensions of growth 1 2 3 Organic growth Geographic growth Platform-led growth ESTABLISHED Institution EMERGING Platform NEW Grow organically Expand the Vitality global insurtech Grow globally with the ability to platform Build new businesses that scale repeat and scale Achieve superior returns on capital Create superior institutions 26
1 Organic growth Operating profit 10,000 +13% +3% +0% +15% +15% to Established businesses R9.9bn -13% -1% 5,000 ESTABLISHED remain robust (-1% to R7.5bn) - 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 After COVID-19 impact COVID-19 impact SA mortality 1,500 Emerging 1,000 +74% +46% +46% businesses 500 +94% to are scaling EMERGING - -500 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 R1.1bn rapidly % in New*: 5% 7% 14% 24% 19% New Turning point 5% 8% 17% 31% 23% Old definition NEW - in the spend -1,000 -2,000 R2.0bn on New -3,000 businesses 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 *Pre-COVID-19 impacts 27 New definition is as % of core (Established and Emerging) instead of total operating profit
Emerging businesses are growing rapidly and achieving good returns Insure Ping An Health Vitality Group Strong growth from Emerging +2% Operating profit Operating profit Operating profit Operating profit Rm 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 - -200 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 10.4% ROE ROE ROE 14.5% ROE 28 Normalised RoE in local currency, and only considers Emerging parts of business – Insure excludes CMT and VG excludes new initiatives
New businesses are seeing considerable traction Bank Vitality Invest Vitality1 DBI Umbrella Funds +86% New-to-Bank Clients +75% New business (£m) New markets launched +52%New business +290% New business FY20-FY21 90,000 40 200 1,400 Millions Millions 80,000 180 35 1,200 160 70,000 30 140 1,000 60,000 25 120 50,000 800 20 100 40,000 600 80 15 30,000 60 400 10 20,000 40 200 10,000 5 20 - 0 0 0 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 29
2 Geographic growth Operating profit 8,000 Operating profit +9% 2,000 +334% -5% +1% +6% 7,000 1,500 +12% -61% +84% +6% to 6,000 1,000 5,000 -15% R7.1bn 4,000 -17% 500 (-17% to R4.7bn) 3,000 - 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 After COVID-19 impact COVID-19 impact SA mortality DBI Umbrella Funds VG New 30
3 Platform-led growth BEHAVIOURAL DESIGN GLOBAL INTEGRATED PARTNERS INCENTIVE LAYER Pre-commitment Nudge theory Loss Aversion Resonance design PREDICT INTERVENE Next-best Gateway BEHAVIOURAL LAYER action model Portal FUTURE HEALTH GLOBAL DATA ENGINEERING 300k >50m >3.5m 13bn New members Life years of Device tracking km tracked DATA LAYER every month behavioral linked events a week HEALTH insurance data INSURANCE PRICING BEHAVIOURAL VALUE MATCHING Device- Dynamic Wedge ABC PRODUCT LAYER led pricing funding pricing Net VIF uplift model VITALITY 1 PLATFORM ENABLEMENT MOBILE CONTENT MANAGEMENT Enables instant multi-language TECHNOLOGY AND ANALYTICS LAYER World-class technology platform Transforms Vitality customization launches ENHANCED INSURANCE Attract Price Change Behaviour Retain VALUE CHAIN PREDICT VALUE INTERVENE 31
Platform seeing good engagement and growth Platform income* Customer engagement Shared Value outcomes Actuarial value – initial selection, better retention, improved R4.0bn claims, lower prices, selective lapses Shared Value to 41m Claims ratios by status +8% Impacted lives Life customers in FY21 30 Markets Insurance SA UK Market A R4.6bn Revenue through the platform (Rm) 12bn Average steps per day Health Insurance SA UK 245 3.5m Workouts logged per day Long-term 1,864 2,499 Savings 4k New devices registered per day Motor 20k Health assessments per day Insurance Premium discounts 600k Cash backs 2019 2020 2021 Goals achieved per week Banking Boosts Offshore SA Arrears Blue Bronze Silver Gold and Diamond 32 *Platform income made up of Vitality membership premiums and Vitality Group revenue
Manifesting as unique composites and partnerships Global Network USA Discovery Health Discovery Insure Discovery Invest Discovery Bank Vitality Health Discovery Life Vitality Invest Vitality Life Vitality Car 1 Perfect composite model, #1 in every industry, and the Bank pivoting to growth as the composite-maker within SA 2 Best-in-breed products across businesses and operating as a fully integrated composite business with a seamless One Vitality client journey. A successful entry into motor insurance 3 Ping An Health delivers on its plan to become the leading health insurer in China with over 50m clients 4 Vitality is the world’s largest and most sophisticated behavioural platform linked to financial services 33
Discovery Health Discovery Insure Discovery Invest Discovery Bank Discovery Life Strong high-quality client and deposit growth while deliberately pursuing a prudent, quality-focused credit strategy 34
Discovery Bank Total clients Total accounts Retail deposits Advances Spend 362k 649k R8.2bn R3.8bn R20.2bn YTD spend R8.2bn 4,000,000,000.00 R3.8bn 649k R20.2 362k R3.6bn 3,500,000,000.00 505k 3,000,000,000.00 307k 2,500,000,000.00 2,000,000,000.00 R3.1bn 1,500,000,000.00 1,000,000,000.00 500,000,000.00 R1.1bn 0.00 J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Primary Secondary 35
A full-service shared-value Bank Strategic focus areas Banking ecosystem 1 High-quality client growth 2 Attracting deposits Behavioural 3 Growing quality advances 4 Powerful shared-value fundamentals and currency Functionality 5 Market-leading functionality 36
1. Strong growth to ±500 average daily sales with high-quality growth New-to-Bank daily sales Quality client growth Opportunity within DSY and non-DSY client base ±500 Primary versus secondary clients DSY product uptake – Bank new business average daily new-to-Bank sales Achieved the medium-term targets 40% 600 60% 92% 500 490 Primary Secondary Bank client with DSY products Bank only 400 Vitality penetration 353 Average NIR per client per month 300 Current penetration Opportunity 264 200 198 100 32% 26% 20% 9% 13% 0 FY21 Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 DSY Bank Big 4 Top 5 Retail Blue Bronze Silver Gold Diamond Banks Big 4 and Top 5 NIR is the client-weighted average Big 4 include Standard Bank, FNB, ABSA and Nedbank 37 Top 5 Retail Banks include Standard Bank, FNB, ABSA, Nedbank and Capitec
2. Deposits have continued their strong growth trajectory Consistent growth in retail deposits Deposits are sticky and diverse R8.18bn Duration Growth of 167% from July 2020 to June 2021 vs 7% for the market R8.2bn 49% 38% > 3 months < 3 months - None/Blue < 3 months - Bronze+ 13% Concentration R3.1bn 5% Top 10 depositors Others J A S O N D J F M A M J 95% 38
3. Deliberate decision to pursue a prudent, quality-focused credit strategy Retail advances New-to-Bank credit Credit loss ratio Superior credit risk application metrics (excl. COVID-19 overlay) metrics NEW CLIENTS RISK DISTRIBUTION Growth of 5% from July 2020 to June JAN – MAR 2021 2021 – above market growth of 4.5% Applications Approve rate 9% Subprime Near prime Prime Prime plus Super prime R3.8bn 40,000 30% 4,000,000,000.00 R3.6bn 100% 35,000 3,500,000,000.00 25% 50% 30,000 3,000,000,000.00 6% 20% 34% 52% 2,500,000,000.00 25,000 0% Discovery Bank Market 3.96% 2,000,000,000.00 20,000 15% EXISTING CLIENTS RISK DISTRIBUTION JAN – MAR 2021 15,000 3% 1,500,000,000.00 10% 100% 1,000,000,000.00 10,000 80% 5% 60% 500,000,000.00 5,000 40% 0 0% 0% 20% 30% 0.00 J A S O N D J F M A M J 17% FY21 FY21 FY21 FY21 J A S O N D J F M A M J 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Discovery Bank Market 39
4. Shared-value fundamentals emerging as expected with Discovery Miles as a powerful currency Shared-value fundamentals The Discovery Miles currency is central to the Bank’s ecosystem and the SA composite 4.9bn earned 94% 3.20% in FY2021 1.26% Cumulative Miles earned 0.62% lower arrears 0.18% rate Blue Bronze Silver Gold and Gold and Diamond Diamond vs Blue 202007 202008 202009 202010 202011 202012 202101 202102 202103 202104 202105 202106 Online and in- Physical activity 9x store 92 2.9bn spent Prepaid products in FY2021 higher average 1 2 12 Drive and services deposits Continuous innovation Blue* Bronze Silver Gold and Gold and Diamond vs book average Diamond New ways to New ways to Indexed to Blue Spend Travel earn Miles spend Miles Transfer and 4x 4 Healthy living convert 2 1 1 Miles spend 8.5 greater spend 5.5 Gold and Diamond vs Blue Bronze Silver Gold and 1 Blue Get up to when you spend Diamond Discovery Miles in the Vitality Mall, online and Daily average Black Friday Miles D-Day on prepaid products and services (July) 40
5. Differentiated, market-leading functionality with a focus on digital sophistication Continued innovation Continued innovation Innovations successfully rolled out Several enhancements being rolled out in September Examples; not exhaustive Forex proposition Account Sign up 24/7/365 in
Discovery Health Discovery Insure Discovery Invest Discovery Bank Discovery Life Continued operational excellence, growth in DHMS lives and providing significant support to members and society 42
Discovery Health Normalised operating New business Direct manex Membership profit Rm (plpm) +7% +6% +3% >3.7m to R3 423m to R6 453m lives under administration Non-scheme products 133.48 Closed schemes 127.93 DHMS 2020 2021 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 43
Discovery Health Medical Scheme performance summary Growth and stability Value Security >2.75m lives 36.9% Delayed contribution increase R2.2bn 1 Solvency1 57% market share 2 Contribution savings for DHMS members AAA GCR credit rating1 5.2% lapse rate1 2021 weighted average increases Reserve build-up Debit order rejections 2.95% R27.5bn reserves 1 7% 6% 5% 4% Scheme B Scheme F Scheme A Scheme C Scheme D Scheme E DHMS 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: Discovery Health Medical Scheme and the Council of Medical Schemes 1 As at 31 December 2020 2 Based on beneficiaries, according to the Council for Medical Schemes Quarterly Report for the period ended 30 September 2020 44
Utilisation patterns, which are the main driver of medical inflation, have been disrupted COVID-19 1 COVID-19 admissions Wave 2 and 3 peaks 600 ADMISSIONS 500 400 Wave 1 peak 300 200 100 0 IN-HOSPITAL 2 Total hospital admissions CARE Pre-COVID levels 3,000 2,000 1,000 - OUT-OF- 3 OH Claims GP Consults OTC Meds 2.0 HOSPITAL CARE 1.6 Pre-COVID levels 1.2 0.8 0.4 - Mar - 20 May - 20 Jul - 20 Sep - 20 Nov - 20 Jan - 21 Mar - 21 May - 21 Jul - 21 45
Emerging non-COVID-19 utilisation patterns over the period 2 3 IN-HOSPITAL CARE OUT-OF-HOSPITAL CARE Reduced across the board, with a shift from large Starting to increase, with increased care at home acute hospitals to smaller day surgery type facilities and changes in health-seeking behaviour Decline in discretionary Decline in maternity- Spike in pathology Move to care outside Decline in preventative medical admissions related utilisation claims large hospitals and screening care Proportion of admissions 600,000,000 occurring in a day clinic Depression registrations Cardiac Admissions -20% catheterisation Admissions average LOS 500,000,000 400,000,000 +56% Neonatal Endoscopies Claimants admissions 300,000,000 Breast cancer screening Tonsillectomy % Pre-38 week 200,000,000 -55% 100,000,000 and adenoid Admissions births 0 Diabetes management -27% Jun Jan Feb Jul Apr Aug May Mar 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Spinal medical NICU Admissions 2019 2020 2021 procedures admissions 46
Accelerated digitisation of the healthcare system | DH ideally positioned Global expansion of Discovery Health has a fully integrated digital healthcare platform digital healthcare Evidenced by telemedicine use Ecosystem has a comprehensive patient record, and connects the communities of doctors, members and DH is already deploying AI and Platform achieved scale case managers across a common platform with digitisation for homecare and through vaccination journey Growth in provider integration to various parts of the medical system enhanced quality remote consults 2019 to 2020 ~ 50 – 175 x Detailed medical Convergence of clinical and data insights examinations and to offer high quality care at home Member logins 1,118,689 advanced virtual consultations % of US consumers using telehealth 46% 24/7 doctor support 269,907 129,640 2019: 2020: 2021: DrConnect DrConnect Connected End-to-end digital (Pre-COVID) (COVID) Care (Since experience 1 Apr-21) 11% Connected Care Vaccine Navigator 1.01m 3.68m logins logins 2019 2020 47
Discovery Health Discovery Insure Discovery Invest Discovery Bank Discovery Life Significant negative COVID-19 mortality impact but delivering excellent retention experience and maintaining financial strength 48
Discovery Life Normalised operating profit New business API Strong capital and liquidity position -55% to R1 341m -1% to R2 264m SCR coverage Liquidity coverage FY21 7x net cash outflow 182% 183% -6% Before 4,420 COVID-19 impact 4,149 125% SCR target 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 COVID-19 impact 49
Discovery Life gross COVID-19 claims FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022* Total (Rm) Individual (Rm) 31 Individual (Rm) 2 207 Individual (Rm) 2 253 4 491 Group (Rm) 24 Group (Rm) 835 Group (Rm) 866 1 725 Total (Rm) 55 Total (Rm) 3 042 Total (Rm) 3 119 6 216 Wave 3 Actual to Aug 21 (Rm) 2 156 800 to 30 June 2021 = R689m 700 Monthly Death Outgo (R’m) Provision Scenario 600 Wave 2 = R1 871m Prudent best estimate 60% vaccination by November 500 400 300 200 Wave 1 = R538m 100 - Aug-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Apr-20 Jul-20 Apr-21 Jul-21 Apr-22 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 May-20 May-21 May-22 Nov-20 Dec-20 Nov-21 Dec-21 Actual Provision Scenario 50
Robust embedded value growth driven by positive operating variances with continued exceptional persistency experience Maintained strong positive VNB impacted by lower Cashflow impacted by COVID-19 claims operating variances volumes and COVID-19 provision strengthening Non-economic EV Variances Embedded Value VNB VNB Margin Rm (Rm) 15 694 +10% 519 586 7.1% 8.0% Gross COVID-19 claims R3bn 34.8bn 31.8bn 421 5.8% 411 5.7% 401 2 196 -633 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 Premiums Claims Reinsurance Existing Operational Cashflows NB strain Net Life and and fees financing costs from Invest cashflows existing cashflow after FinRe Excluding COVID-19 Overall COVID-19 impact on cashflow of cR1.5bn net of all risk and financial reinsurance 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 51
Looking ahead and optimising Life insurance post the 3rd wave SCR coverage Liquidity coverage Back book cash generation 182% 183% 4,149 4,420 7x FY21 net cash Supported strong Well capitalised 1 back book cash outflow 125% and highly liquid generation: >R15bn SCR target premium income 2020 2021 2020 2021 High Vitality engagement Actively driving vaccinations Highly engaged % Life book vaccinated to Count basis Sum assured basis 38% off date and vaccinated 2 Bronze % of total book 57% 62% client base % of 60+ years 73% 77% % of 50+ years 69% 71% % of 35+ years 63% 66% None Blue Bronze Silver Gold Diamond Differentiate between Product features Understanding relative COVID-19 vaccinated/unvaccinated lives risk across age bands Products adjusted 3 for COVID-19 VACCINATION MAX Base mortality rate at age 45 OFFER 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 52
Discovery Health Discovery Insure Discovery Invest Discovery Bank Discovery Life Strong earnings growth, retention and excellent investment returns for customers. New business growth curtailed by lower guaranteed plan sales 53
Discovery Invest Normalised operating New business Assets under Lapse rates profit administration Rm Rm Rbn +31% +3% to R2 737m +18% to R117bn -13% to R1 084m +31% +16% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Non-recurring profit contributions, include release of COVID lapse provisions and GILF matching profits 54
Key highlights over the past financial year 12% increase in linked product Strong investment performance Shared value continues sales to drive good outcomes Multi-asset More profitable business sold over the last financial year, with offshore sales up 81% One year Three year Five years Discovery Dynamic Asset Optimisers Conservative Q1 Q1 Q1 Moderate Q2 Q1 Q1 +3 years Average Aggressive Q1 Q1 Q1 investment term Discovery Balanced Funds Balanced Q2 Q2 Q2 Moderate Balanced Q2 Q2 Q1 Cautious Balanced Q2 Q1 Q1 Linked products as proportion of +338% new business In extra Local single-asset* contributions 22% Equity 26% Flexible Property 57% 68% Global equity* 16% Equity Feeder 2020 2021 -22% 34% Value Income withdrawal level *Growth over one year 55
Discovery Health Discovery Insure Discovery Invest Discovery Bank Discovery Life Strong top-line growth and robust underwriting performance with earnings impacted by lower investment yields 56
Discovery Insure Normalised New business Gross written Market share Operating operating profit premium in GWP margin* +2% +18% +15% 7% 6% to R250m to R1 287m* to R4 205* (excl. Commercial) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Personal Lines only. Assumes 6% in GWP 57 *Personal Lines only market growth since 2018
Analysing the profit dynamics COVID-19 had an impact on driving, Profit composition reveals a strong increase in core claims and profit in FY21 operating profit (Rm) R114m additional - R58m additional = R56m additional FY21 FY20 profit rewards given actual profit (R59m in FY20) 250 246 Infections -3 -13 100 Infections (k) 50 163 0 -84 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J Covid 119 related 2020 2021 -114 Driving Activity v regular levels Covid related 120% Driving activity 100% 80% 60% 40% 19% 0% Normalised CMT Investment Operating Normalised CMT Investment Operating J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J Operating Income Profit Operating Income Profit 2020 2021 Profit Profit 58 CMT profits are net of SA costs
The Vitality Drive model improves each year Status correlations well established Improved status distribution This manifests iteratively in leverages these dynamics an improving claims ratio Loss ratio by status Lapse ratio by status 28% proportion of book shifted over Motor claims ratio Total claims ratio -34% -65% 4 years to Silver and up 60% 56% 56% 55% 55% 52% 52% 51% 47% 44% Gold 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Blue Bronze Silver Gold Blue Bronze Silver Blue Bronze Silver Gold 59
Vitality Health Vitality Life Vitality Invest Vitality Car 60
UK Composite Normalised Earned Lives covered New business operating profit premiums1 +844% +5% +8% +7% to £68.5m to £827.4m to 1.4m lives to £156.7m Vitality Health Vitality Invest Vitality Life Vitality Car GBP millions GBP millions GBP millions Best-in-breed products across businesses and operating as a fully integrated composite business with a seamless One Vitality client journey. A successful entry into motor insurance Vitality Health, Vitality Life, Vitality Invest and Other 61 1 Vitality Health and Vitality Life only
Vitality Health Vitality Invest Vitality Life Vitality Car Robust operating performance driven by continued good retention. Careful management of delay of elective healthcare in the COVID-19 environment 62
Vitality Health Normalised Earned premiums Lives covered New business operating profit +9% +4% +6% to 723k lives +5% to £46.0m to £515.6m to £65.9m GBP millions GBP millions GBP millions 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 63
Operational performance continues to be outstanding and business well prepared for the coming period Stronger and Low loss ratios, but Good cash generation Provided for uncertain future better retention returning to prior levels claims through UPR and rescheduled FinRe Lapse Rate Actual v Pre-COVID expected loss £m ratio has precipitated a surplus Pre-COVID expectation = 100 Providing for longer- £128m term increases: 100 106 105 98 99 1. Long Covid 93 2. Long term 88 87 84 83 8482 increase in 68 76 74 claims e.g. 72 39.7 59 67 cancer increases 58 54 3. Catch-up £56m experience- 43 based premium 36.1 increases 3233 Short-term increase in claims FY21 14.2 within contract boundary Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Cash Write new Invest in Net cash 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 generated business project generated 2020 2021 from initiatives Rescheduled FinRe inforce UPR 64
Vitality Health Vitality Invest Vitality Life Vitality Car Strong recovery, strengthening of underlying actuarial basis and successful execution of management plan. New business slowed with lockdowns and the focus on quality business 65
Vitality Life Normalised Earned premiums Lives covered New business operating profit +325% +8% +10% -14% to £31.0m to £311.8m to 680k lives to £55.0m GBP millions GBP millions GBP millions 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 66
Favourable lapse and COVID-19 experience drove strong profit, but offset by new business shortfall and assumption changes Addressed the 10 point plan Operating profit recon £11.9m £2m £25.8m £16.9m £30m £31m Expected Experience COVID-19 COVID-19 Basis and Normalised operating profit variances (excl. claims and provision model operating profit COVID-19) lapse variances strengthening strengthening variances 67
68
Focus on profit quality and scale through both distribution channels and product diversification. Capital injection to support long-term growth 69
Ping An Health New business1 Written premium1 PAH’s operating Discovery’s operating results pre-tax result after tax to R15.8bn to R40.6bn to R2.9bn to R411m (DSY’s share is R727m) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1 100% of PAH 70
The quality of the book and profits have improved Revenue growth surged in H2 20, Renewal rates continue to Focused on quality, as seen by growth moderating in FY21 increase and COR is reducing highest margins in industry Written premiums RMB Renewal rates Net margin post tax, Jan - Dec 20 12 Company Margin Billions +20% Target PING AN HEALTH INSURANCE 10 COMPANY OF CHINA, LTD 5.40% +58% 8 31-Dec-19 30-Jun-20 31-Dec-20 30-Jun-21 KUNLUN HEALTH INSURANCE CO LTD 2.70% 6 Combined operating ratio CPIC HEALTH 2.30% 4 7% PICC HEALTH INSURANCE COMPANY 0.10% absolute LIMITED 2 reduction FOSUN UNITED HEALTH INSURANCE COMPANY LTD -3.40% - RUIHUA HEALTH ASSURANCE H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 CORPORATION -28.90% Prior period YTD 2021 FY17 FY17 FY18 FY18 FY19 FY19 FY20 FY20 FY21 FY21 Source: publicly available financial statements 71
Continue to pursue scale through diversified distribution channels and products New business split by channel Increasing digital presence to unlock the online market Ping An Le Jian Kang WeChat Good Doctor App mini-program 100% 24% 80% 37% Health check-up Access to 60% *400m users Quick TCM Expert Medication Cloud Inquiry Specialist Doctor farm 40% Video Medical Consult examinationInsurance Integrated Earn gold status 20% products Medical services Cumulative services Urology Paediatrics Dermatology Internal TCM medicine 0% Jun-20 Jun-21 Diabetes Fertility Urinary Male health Ping An Life Broker and direct sales Integrated Cross Sales with PAG SuiShenYi online agency services Online and Ping An App Home Shop Health My page Insurance Q&A profile 72 *As at June 2021
China’s market and strong economic growth trajectory provide an excellent long-term opportunity Continued growth in Policies emphasise developing Recent regulatory developments in healthcare expenditure, healthcare and private health insurance education, technology and online increased participation from supported by mature regulations pharmacy sectors, to align with policy private health insurance goals 14th five-year plan provides support in four (RMB Trillion) main areas (2020-2025): Education & housing regulation address low 2.7x 16 birth rate ~USD Social development: Promote development of 2.4trn private health insurance 6 Digitisation: Develop AI healthcare capability, Technology sector online hospitals & digitise health regulation change 2019 2030 address anti-competitive International Collaboration: Attract foreign practices, consumer investment and technology in medicine, protection and prudent telecom, internet and education capital requirements Private sector healthcare providers Healthy China 2030 target: Increase the Online pharmacy Public sector subsidised number of people exercising regulations healthcare providers address online prescription drug safety 2019 2030 CBIRC formed in 2018 to combine and strengthen financial supervision of insurance and banking sectors 73 CBIRC - China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission
PAH requires additional capital to support business growth and product diversification Total capital injection for PAH to develop additional capabilities and fund new business growth Capital requirement driven by 2 factors Cumulative new business portion of PAH’s projected solvency ratio reduces without a capital 20 year product injection, due to sales of more capital-intensive 20-year 70% 32% product • Strong market demand for renewal guarantee PAH growth imperatives • Premium increase flexibility for PAH along with 200% • More sustainable and profitable product solvency requirement • Lower average commission over term • More capital-intensive Oct-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Apr-21 Sep-20 Mar-21 May-21 Jun-21 Nov-20 Dec-20 • Higher upfront commission 30% Chinese C-ROSS Phase II regulations implemented in 2021 aim to strengthen the effectiveness of insurance regulatory system Change in solvency New requirements increase minimum capital requirements for insurance, market, credit and other rules quantitative risk factors 74
USA Strong growth due to increasing integration and traction with existing partners and accelerating roll- out to new markets and adjacencies 75
Vitality Group Integrated API by Revenue1 Operating result Insurance and franchise insurance partners partners membership to $1.3bn to $82.4m to $27.1m to 2.4m R19.9bn R1.3bn R417m +27% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Insurance partners Vitality USA All numbers exclude new VG initiatives, i.e. myOwn and Vitality 76 1 Excludes services related to system implementation and other cost recoveries and rewards
Deepened adoption of SVI model has been transformational for our partners Engagement Lapses Claims Up-sales Latent value % of members earned a point Attachment rates -60% -35% +73% 74% 40% Market A -79% -35%* +40% 58% 45% Market B +98% -18%* -18% 72% 75% Market C -40% -10%* +111% 54% 80% Market D Non-Vitality Bronze Silver Gold & Platinum 77 *Pricing assumption in lieu of credible experience
Broadening reach and scale through a repeatable framework Accelerated roll-out despite COVID Enabled by unified repeatability strategy lives 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fully remote implementation period to launch 2-version launch with increased functionality 78
The platform allows an expansion from 1 ecosystem to 3 INCENTIVE LAYER BEHAVIOURAL LAYER DATA LAYER PRICING LAYER TECHNOLOGY LAYER Comprehensive Digital Health Ecosystem Shared value health insurance approach 79
Forward-looking focus areas Implement employee vaccine mandate, structural and pricing changes to products for our customers 1 Navigating COVID-19 and play a central role in state-led COVID-19 response Capital strength and liquidity remain a focus Capital strength and 2 liquidity Injecting capital into Ping An Health to support business growth and product diversification Actively pursue the Grow businesses organically, scale businesses 3 three dimensions of offshore and expand the Vitality global insurtech platform growth Execute on the four Create unique shared-value composites that offer 4 strategic strands superior value 80
Discovery Limited Copyright 2021 Discovery Ltd is the licensed controlling company of the designated Discovery Insurance Group. Registration number: 1999/007789/06. Companies in the Group are licensed insurers and authorised financial services providers.
You can also read