Annual Load Forecast and Major Activities Cambridge Planning Board - presented to May 25, 2021 - the City of ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Annual Load Forecast and Major Activities
presented to
Cambridge Planning Board
May 25, 2021
Agenda
• Eversource Gas
• Gas Projects
• Geothermal Pilot Program
• Electric Load Growth and
Forecast
• Electric Projects
• Carbon Neutral by 2030
• Energy Efficiency
• Electric Vehicle Program
• Conclusion
• Q&A
1
Eversource Gas 2021
Joel Diagostino, Gas Operations Manager
2
Eversource Gas in Cambridge
In the combined territory of Cambridge & Somerville
Eversource owns, operates and maintains over 250
miles of natural gas distribution mains and provides
reliable service to 55,000 customers.
Safety is our #1 priority
To safely and reliably deliver natural gas to our
customers, vintage pipe materials such as cast iron
and steel are being replaced with state-of-the-art
materials throughout the system to reduce leaks,
improve capacity and extend the life of the system.
3
GSEP – Gas System Enhancement Plan
What is GSEP?
▪ GSEP is a program through which Eversource is replacing old leak
prone infrastructure with new state of the art pipe
Why is GSEP important?
▪ By replacing this old infrastructure, we drastically reduce leaks and
damage risk of the system
▪ Reduces the environmental impact of methane induction in the
atmosphere
▪ Increases system reliability and capacity
5 Year GSEP Plan – All Eversource in Massachusetts
Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
GSEP Scope 45 Miles 60 Miles 62 Miles 62 Miles 62 Miles 62 Miles
4
3 Year Cambridge Project Outlook
Row Labels Sum of Install Length (Ft.) Sum of Install Length (Mi.)
2021 24369 4.62
2022 16880 3.20
2023 19760 3.74
Grand Total 61009 11.55
Diameter
2021 2022 2023 Grand Total
(inch)
1.25 120 120
1.5 170 170
2 290 160 80 530
3 920 440 1360
4 3789 6220 13320 23329
6 1170 520 640 2330
8 240 4720 4960
12 220 220
16 0 1000 1000
1.5, 2, 280 280
2,3,4,6 90 90
3,4 4020 1160 5180
3,4,6 1160 1160
4,2 1280 1280
4,3 1720 1160 2880
6, 3, 1.5 1400 1400
6, 4 360 360
6,12 3200 3200
6,3 7200 2960 10160
6,4 1000 1000
Grand Total 24369 16880 19760 61009
5
Eversource Major Projects Locations
6
Eversource Geothermal Pilot Program
Nikki Bruno, Clean Technologies, Gas
7
Eversource Geothermal Pilot Program
What are the benefits of Geothermal What is the Geothermal
Energy? Pilot Program?
As a low carbon resource, geothermal Eversource is piloting the
networks have the potential to be a critical
resource in supporting Massachusetts'
use of networked
greenhouse gas (GHG) emission goals. geothermal heating and
cooling technology at scale
in an eastern
How Does it Work? Massachusetts
neighborhood as a potential
option to complement or
The networked geothermal system pulls replace delivered fuels and
the earth's heat out of the ground
to warm buildings in winter and pumps natural gas service for
heat from buildings back into the heating and cooling.
ground in summer to cool them.
8
Geothermal Pilot Program for Eastern MA
Target Group for Pilot Program:
Interested?
Eversource is looking for a
mixed group of about 100 Please
residential and commercial or email geothermal@eversource.com
industrial customers in the include the following:
same neighborhood.
• Your name
• The address of the potential
Applicants must currently site or an idea of the area
receive either delivered fuels
(heating oil or propane) or
• Additional details on why it
Eversource natural gas would be a good location
service in the qualifying
territory.
Additional Information can be found on the dedicated Geothermal Pilot Program Page
on the Eversource Website
Link: Eversource Geothermal Pilot Program Page
9Load Growth and Forecasting
Daniel Ludwig, Sales and Revenue Forecasting
10Load Forecasting
Econometrics
Econometric forecasting approach allows us to:
▪ Calculate how much of the monthly historical changes in peak
demands are due to heating, cooling and economic conditions.
▪ Types of economic variables include non-manufacturing
employment, retail sales or gross metro product.
▪ Include adjustments for company sponsored energy efficiency (EE),
behind-the-meter solar and electric vehicles.
▪ Capture pockets of load growth by identifying known large customer
projects.
Cambridge Load = f (THI, HDD, employment)
THI – temperature humidity index
HDD – heading degree days 11COVID-19 & Electric Summer Load
The load forecast was finalized in Spring 2021 capturing the latest ‘large
customer’ assumptions and updated economic projections
▪ Overall, the 2021 load forecast is slightly higher than last year’s forecast
due to known large customer additions
▪ The company's load forecast assumes COVID-19 restrictions will no
longer negatively impact peak demands beginning next summer
(summer 2022)
Repercussions of COVID-19 restrictions will (again)
result in reduced peak loads in Summer 2021:
▪ Reduced staffing levels / remote working
▪ Less “foot traffic” / hesitant tourism
Potential long term increases to forecast:
▪ Robust Air purification
▪ Adoption rate of electric cars
12Gas Peak Forecast
Safely Meeting Cambridge Needs
Cambridge Peak Day Gas Forecast
(MMBTU)
123,400
121,458
119,335
117,456
113,831
2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024
▪ Peak day gas consumption in the City of Cambridge is forecasted to
steadily increase through the 2023/2024 winter heating season primarily
due to growth in the number of customers 13Cambridge Electric Load
Cambridge Summer Peak Load Forecast Comparison
550
500
450
MW's
400
2021 Forecast
350
2020 Forecast
Weather Adjusted History
300
250
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
▪ Known large customer projects remain the primary driver of long-term
growth in the City of Cambridge
14Future State of Forecasting
The Load Forecasting Team is currently evaluating and monitoring each
of the items listed below:
▪ Climate Change: Rising average temperatures, frequency of 90-
degree days and severity of peak day weather
▪ Electrification: Buildings that operate on 100% electricity
▪ Role of Natural Gas: The Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities
opened docket D.P.U 20-80 to investigate the role of natural gas at the
local distribution companies in helping the Commonwealth achieve its
2050 climate goals
15Major Electric Projects
Transmission & Distribution
Todd Lanham, Project Services
16Transmission Projects
Efforts to Meet Projected Load Growth
An enhanced electric delivery system in Cambridge:
▪ Strengthens the reliability of the entire system
– Added redundancy and flexibility makes system more
resilient; less susceptible to customer outages.
▪ Meets growing demand for electricity
▪ Enables a cleaner energy future
– A more resilient transmission grid allows delivery of power
from remote clean energy resources.
– A more flexible distribution system enables more local
clean energy resources.
17Transmission Projects
Underground Substation, New Lines Allow for More Transmission Supply
Proposed Project
▪ Underground Substation in Kendall Square
▪ Line Routes connecting to four substations
across three municipalities
▪ Reinforces the regional grid and power supply to
Cambridge, creates network to support clean
energy sources.
Next Steps
▪ Finalize Line Routes, substation engineering
▪ Community Open House meetings this summer
▪ EFSB submittal Q4 2021
Below Grade Substation
Configuration Example
Connecting the new
Substation to the Grid
18Carbon Neutral by 2030
Liz Toner, Community Relations
19Leaders in Clean Energy
• Offshore wind
• Partnership with Ørsted to
create a leading offshore
wind platform
• Battery storage
• Providing backup power
sources to improve reliability
during peak usage times
• Solar
• Continuing to invest in and
support residential and utility
scale solar energy
• Electric vehicles
• Investing $55 million in
electric vehicle infrastructure
in Massachusetts; one of the
largest in the country
Visit Us at www.eversource.com to learn about all clean energy initiatives
20Energy Efficiency
Bill Stack, Energy Efficiency
21Eversource Energy Efficiency in Cambridge
Programs:
▪ Cambridge Building Energy Retrofit
Program
▪ Cambridge/Eversource Partnership
Supporting BEUDO Net Zero Targets
▪ 165 Projects
▪ 17,367,845 kWh annual
▪ 877,140 therms since Oct/2019
▪ Active EE Project
Initiatives/Engagement
▪ Net Zero Labs initiative
22Electric Vehicle Program
Sean Tully, Energy Efficiency
23Electric Vehicle (EV) Infrastructure Program
$55 million capital in MA Electric Service Territory
100% of infrastructure costs covered – 50-90% of project costs
More than 450 sites, 4,000 enabled
charging points
▪ 10% in Environmental Justice
Communities
Targeting
▪ Public Spaces (e.g. municipal lots, state
facilities)
▪ Workplaces
▪ Multi-Unit Dwellings
▪ Hospitality and Entertainment
▪ Travel corridors (for DC fast chargers) 24Completed EV Make Ready Sites in Cambridge
▪ Completed 14 L2
sites with multiple
charging points
per site.
▪ Engaged with
Cambridge
on expanding
residential
charging
opportunities for
residents who
park on the street.Conclusion
26Conclusion
Accommodate Load Growth, Prepare for Tomorrow
▪ Load growth is continuing despite highly efficient new development
and many years of successful energy efficiency (EE) programs in
Cambridge.
▪ Energy efficiency efforts provide significant benefits in Cambridge
and have been factored into the load forecasts.
▪ The Cambridge electric delivery system continues to be a focus,
ensuring a reliable, resilient and flexible system which will enable a
clean energy future.
▪ Distribution enhancements help get power to end users, supporting
continued economic growth and prosperity.
▪ Gas projects will maintain and strengthen the safe and reliable
delivery of natural gas.
27Community Relations
Liz Toner
Mobile: (508) 308-4768
Email: Elizabeth.Toner@eversource.com
28You can also read
