ALL HANDS ON DECK Decarbonising Shipping: Industry Perspectives - Safety4Sea
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Decarbonising Shipping: ALL HANDS ON DECK Industry Perspectives www.shell.com/DecarbonisingShipping #MakeTheFuture In c ollabora t ion w it h
CONTENTS 5 Foreword 51 A New Paradigm: Solutions for 7 Introduction Decarbonising 11 Executive summary Signals of Change 17 Where We Are Today Principles The Drive to Decarbonise Solutions GHG Emissions in Shipping Unlock 27 The Deadlock: Barriers 1. Scale-up Customer Demand to Decarbonisation 2. Global Regulatory Alignment 3. Cross-sector Research & Development Decarbonisation Readiness 4. Scale-up Controlled Pilot Projects Factors 5. Coordinated Industry Commitments Market and Customer Demand Accelerate Regulatory Incentives 6. Flexible and Modular Designs 7. Port Coalitions Technology Alignment 8. Investor Pressure Clarity on Roles and Decision‑ 9. Green Finance Making Scale Ease of Asset Replacement 10. Scale-up Fuel Production 11. Scale-up Bunkering Infrastructure Ease of Infrastructure Replacement Foundation 12. Operational Efficiency 73 The Roadmap: Accelerating Decarbonisation Motivation and Immediate Focus Let’s Get Moving Lead and Support Roles 89 Credits
FOREWORD The world today is going through extraordinary change. For the energy industry, there are great challenges, from the longer-term effects of climate change to the immediate shock and uncertainty of the global pandemic. But if there are risks, there are opportunities too – as long as industries work with wider society to take urgent action. Huibert Vigeveno Downstream Director The shipping sector is vital to the global Based on more than 80 interviews across the As an operator of a large fleet of tankers and a economy and never more so than in recent industry, from CEOs to financiers and ship supplier of marine fuels, lubricants and services, months, when it kept up the supply of essential builders, the report identifies practical measures Shell has a stake in the future of shipping. We goods. It accounts for about 80% of the volume to cut carbon emissions. It asks questions such have announced our own ambition to be a of global trade. If the world is to achieve the as: what role will the world’s major ports play? net-zero emissions energy business by 2050 or goals of the Paris Agreement to tackle climate How do you adapt assets with a 20-year sooner, in step with society, and our shipping change, it is crucial that sectors such as shipping lifespan? How do you transform a sector so operations must be part of this. We continue to cut their carbon emissions and do so fast. dependent on heavy fuels? The answers are work with our customers on alternate fuels such pragmatic, they show a will to work together as biofuels, liquefied natural gas and hydrogen. The International Maritime Organization has set and they are optimistic. the ambition of reducing the shipping industry’s As the head of Downstream, which is greenhouse-gas emissions by at least 50% by The report identifies 12 possible solutions. responsible for shipping, I am buoyed by the 2050, and reducing the carbon intensity of Operational efficiency is crucial, while others optimism of this report and I relish the prospect emissions by 40% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, include co-ordinating industry commitments, of working with customers, partners, suppliers compared to 2008 levels. The scale of the increasing research and development across and wider society to achieve lasting change. challenge means that any solution needs to sectors, and expanding the infrastructure to be comprehensive and involve every aspect of supply and store cleaner fuels. shipping. As well as cleaner fuels, it should focus on factors such as regulation, government action and societal shifts. No sector can do this alone. This report is driven both by urgency and the need for collaboration. 5 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 6
INTRODUCTION Shipping has a dual challenge. It must meet the demand of the world’s growing population, with more ships and more voyages, while radically reducing its emissions. Achieving both will require a transformation, but there are lessons we can take from experiences in the industry to help us. In Shell Shipping & Maritime, a key focus I have been extraordinarily encouraged What is evident is that, despite the complexity, area has been on improving safety across the by the response. Despite being conducted the industry sees that viable net-zero carbon industry. The aim is a zero-incident industry between January and June 2020, a period that shipping is achievable. It cannot be just one where every seafarer returns home safely. This coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic across company or sector, but with all hands on deck, has not been easy and there is more work to the world, leaders were keen to participate we can make it happen together. do, but huge progress has been made. and were engaged in their responses. This is a testament to the industry’s commitment to tackle To improve shipping’s safety performance, the the challenge, and I would like to thank them all industry had to first work together to understand for their time and contributions. the problem; what are the underlying factors that prevent us being safer? And then, armed With this research, the industry has given its with that information, take collective action. view, and now we must all get to work to move from deadlock to decarbonisation. At Shell, Our objective with this report is to do the same we will continue working with our customers for decarbonisation; we want to catalyse action as they adopt new fuels and technologies that by creating a common understanding of barriers help them reduce emissions. We will develop the industry faces and the solutions that will be the business case for investment in solutions most effective. which reduce emissions today as quickly as possible, and we will continue to collaborate and contribute in research which accelerates progress to zero emission fuels. Grahaeme Henderson Vice President Shipping & Maritime 7 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 8
Report Objectives it is essential to collect, understand and build on their views as we seek to identify This research reflects the perspectives of 82 solutions that drive progress. senior shipping leaders that represent almost all segments of the shipping industry (see Exhibit 1). Clarify a Practical Way Forward: It was developed with the following objectives: Shipping leaders who participated in this research looked beyond the challenges of Take a Comprehensive View: Most today to explore the solutions of tomorrow. existing shipping decarbonisation studies Together they converged on a set of focus on specific challenges in isolation, actions and a roadmap that can help such as potential future fuels. Given the overcome the inertia that many see in the scale of the decarbonisation challenge, sector. a more thorough framing is needed that also includes economic, regulatory and The primary motive of publishing this research is organisational factors. to highlight those insights shared with us through interviews, workshops and desk research; not Reflect the Voice of the Industry: the views of Shell or Deloitte. All engagements Ultimately, those within the industry will with participants were conducted in a manner together play the most instrumental role that respects competition law boundaries. in decarbonising shipping. Accordingly, 01 Research Participants 82 shipping leaders in 74 interviews and 10 hours of collaborative workshops (30 participants) 33 CEOs 32 Vice Presidents, Unit Heads and 17 General Managers, Directors Managers and Specialists 4 of top 10 4 of top 10 3 of top 5 cruise 3 of top 5 ship 2 of top 5 8 ports, incl. 1 of bulk and tanker container financiers shipbuilders top 10 52 Europe, Middle East & Africa 13 North & South America 17 Asia & Pacific 32 Ship owner 15 Charterers 8 Port authorities 10 Technology 11 Regulators, 6 Financiers and and operators and shipping and operators providers and ship classification investors customers builders societies and academia Note: Regions indicate organisations’ headquarters. Most organisations involved operate globally 9 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Shipping is the backbone of the global Growing pressure to reduce carbon emissions economy. It is by far the most efficient mode of across the global economy has opened new freight transport1 and moves approximately 80% opportunities. The industry has already started of world trade volumes2. Simply put, the scale of uniting, forming coalitions, launching pilot global development seen over the last century projects and exploring new ways to lower would not have been possible without shipping shipping emissions. A new paradigm is emerging playing a key role. However, as the global and there is an opportunity to accelerate economy grows, so too will carbon emissions change through a set of manageable, practical from shipping. solutions that will break the deadlock and unlock progress. Making this happen requires The shipping industry recognises the importance collaboration within the shipping industry itself, of decarbonising to help reach the goals across the broader shipping ecosystem and with of the Paris Agreement, and it has already other sectors. but for deep-sea shipping – which accounts for it, many shipping leaders believe that the first started to mobilise. The International Maritime around 85% of emissions5 – there is currently no net-zero ships will need to start entering the Organization (IMO) has announced an The Deadlock viable alternative fuel that makes it possible to global fleet by around 2030 – and that creates ambition to at least halve international shipping reach the IMO’s 2050 ambition. The industry a real sense of urgency. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, Shipping is a capital-intensive industry is currently exploring several alternative fuels – while reducing CO₂ emissions intensity by characterised by large, long-life assets, including hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and “2030 is tomorrow, 2050 is at least 40% by 2030, and pursuing efforts towards 70% by 2050, relative to a 2008 thin margins and a high-dependence on a global supply of energy-dense fuels. These biofuels – but shipping leaders say that they all have commercial and technical limitations. one ship lifetime away” Shipping Technology Provider baseline3. These ambitions send a signal to the characteristics make decarbonisation complex Costs are significantly higher than today’s industry that change is coming, and all parties and expensive, with one study estimating dominant shipping fuel and most potential A New Paradigm involved need to prepare. the total cost at $1.65 trillion by 20504. alternatives have lower energy density, Consequently, decarbonising the industry needs extensive storage and safety requirements and Perspectives regarding decarbonisation are Conversations with over 80 leaders across sufficient regulatory and market incentives and limited infrastructure. New technologies such evolving and opening opportunities that were the shipping industry highlight the daunting an abundant supply of low or zero-emission as propulsion systems and storage tanks need not available a few years ago. Social pressure challenge of shipping decarbonisation. It fuels. to be developed to resolve these barriers and to reduce emissions is intensifying. Governments, will be difficult, and shipping leaders feel enough fuel production capacity is needed to investors and businesses are making that uncertainty about where to begin has “Too many alternatives and meet the 3.3 petawatt hours (12 exajoules6) commitments and starting to act. Notably, created what one interviewee described as a “deadlock”. At the same time, many of those not one viable solution” annual energy demand from shipping. To put that figure in perspective, energy required to extensive levels of sustainable investments are included in stimulus packages announced in Shipping Operator interviewed have a positive outlook. As one power shipping for one year would be enough relation to the COVID-19 global pandemic8. CEO stated, “decarbonisation is one of the The lack of a global regulatory framework and to power New York City for over 60 years7. Technologies are continually evolving and biggest challenges we face as an industry. limited customer demand for lower-emission creating new potential avenues to lower However, we have never been more united shipping are significant barriers to activate much This is the “deadlock”. However, there is a emissions. As one CEO told us, “the situation is around a problem, and there is optimism that needed industry investment. Electric vessels may growing view that now is the time to act if the not all doom and gloom.” we can make it happen.” be an option for inland and short-sea routes, industry is to meet the IMO’s ambition. To reach 11 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 12
The leaders of the shipping industry “Real commitment from (R&D) across shipping, other harder-to- production and bunkering infrastructure. acknowledge this new paradigm. Over 90% of interviewees involved in this research customers would go a long abate sectors and the energy industry. Create a much larger pool of capital and Finally, operational efficiency must remain the “foundation” of all these phases and is crucial highlighted decarbonisation as important or way to unlock investment” expertise to evolve new technologies and to reducing emissions of both existing and a top priority for their organisations, noting its Shipping Owner & Operator increase the likelihood that production future vessels. Energy efficient technologies, importance has increased significantly over the and transportation infrastructure will such as hull streamlining, air lubrication, wind past 18 months. This sentiment reflects increasing Based on these three principles, this report be available once future fuels are technology, weather routing, port optimisation, action as new coalitions and pilot projects focuses on 12 solutions, or recommendations for commercially viable. and high quality fuels and lubricants are some have been established to address barriers to action, that emerged from research, interviews of the measures the industry can implement decarbonisation. Even with the impacts of the and workshops. These solutions streamline 4. Scale-up Controlled Pilot Projects: immediately and throughout the decarbonisation COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2020, what some view as an insurmountable problem Increase R&D effectiveness by running journey. almost all shipping leaders that we interviewed into several manageable phases that address end-to-end green pilot projects involving saw the resulting economic disruption as an specific barriers and enable the industry to have customers, charterers, operators, “We can build rockets that opportunity to accelerate progress. the first net-zero ships in the water by around 2030. The first five solutions aim to “unlock” owners and ports on specific routes and vessel types. Operators that follow a come back from the moon “The discussion has finally progress in the next two to three years. predetermined schedule, such as container but not make ships green? become serious” ships especially on shorter and busier No way. We can do it” 1. Scale-up Customer Demand: routes, are likely candidates for pilot Shipping Owner Shipping Owner & Operator CEO Create scale in demand for low or zero- projects. Most shipping leaders believe that a novel emission shipping through charterers’ The Roadmap decarbonisation approach is needed and and customers’ commitments that include 5. Coordinated Industry should be based on three main principles: long-term contracts and green procurement Commitments: Increase the reach The opportunity for the industry to break the criteria. Natural candidates to lead this of existing initiatives – such as the deadlock is clear, and there is little time to lose Adopt an ecosystem perspective solution are state-owned and publicly listed Getting to Zero Coalition, the Clean if it is to meet the IMO 2050 ambition. The Think big, start small, scale fast companies with proximity to end consumers Cargo Working Group and others – by solutions outlined in this report offer a roadmap Focus on behaviours and triggers (e.g. containers, food bulk), and others consolidating objectives and strengthening to build on progress already happening with ambitious scope 2 and 3 net carbon the coordination of various concurrent within the sector and to drive further change. The first, “adopt an ecosystem perspective” footprint commitments9. workstreams. A body with a specific Momentum is building, and there is a sense of recognises that the challenge is too large for mandate, formed with dues from the optimism that it can be done. Those who take any one organisation alone. It calls for a holistic 2. Global Regulatory Alignment: industry, could accelerate the shift from the lead are in a better position to influence the and integrated perspective, with each industry Create a level playing field globally and ideas to action and help break the outcomes, but every operator and stakeholder stakeholder having a role to play and a set of reduce uncertainty regarding regulations deadlock. in the industry has a role to play. As one CEO activities to focus on. The second, “think big, and timeframes. New IMO guidelines due said, it’s “all hands on deck.” start small, scale fast,” is based on the premise in 2023 should provide clarity and should These five solutions make up the first phase of that small, incremental steps are the best way to be aligned with leading local and regional the decarbonisation roadmap (see Exhibit 02). solve a challenge of such magnitude. The third regulatory bodies (eg. EU, China and US). The industry will then need to “accelerate” principle, “focus on behaviours and triggers,” Short-term regulatory incentives should also progress by further de-risking early investments underscores the importance of supporting be considered. through flexible ship design, new port coalitions, solutions with the right incentives. Incentives greater investor pressure and new financing should be based on an understanding of what 3. Cross-sector Research and schemes that encourage low-carbon shipping. will motivate stakeholders across the value chain Development: Intensify partnerships Next, the reduced risk and expanded incentives to take a long-term perspective. to develop zero or low-emission fuels resulting from previous phases will help attract through joint research and development the investment needed to “scale” green fuel 13 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 14
02 Roadmap to 2030 Scale 10. Scale-up Fuel Production 11. Scale-up Bunkering Infrastructure In parallel with the Unlock solutions, key enabling activities for Accelerate and Accelerate Scale phase to start 6. Flexible and Modular Designs 7. Port Coalitions 8. Investor Pressure 9. Green Finance Unlock 1. Scale-up Customer Demand 2. Global Regulatory Alignment Progressing solutions from Unlock and 3. Cross-sector Research and Development Accelerate phases will help create the focus and conditions required to have the first 4. Scale-up Controlled Pilot Projects net-zero vessels in the water by 2030 and meet the 2050 IMO ambition 5. Coordinated Industry Commitments Foundation 12. Operational Efficiency 2023: Expected IMO regulation 2030: The first net-zero vessels start entering the commercial fleet Short Term Medium Term Long Term (2020 – 2023) (2023 – 2030) (2030+) 15 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 16
Where we are: The shipping industry the IMO is expected to follow up with more THE DRIVE TO has set an ambition to halve specific measures by 2023. The IMO is the first international shipping GHG emissions regulatory body to adopt a global ambition for by 2050. an entire industry, which is of critical importance DECARBONISE given the role of shipping in the global In 2018, the IMO announced the initial strategy economy. to reduce GHG emissions (see Exhibit 04). The strategy outlines an ambition to at least halve international shipping GHG emissions by 2050, while reducing CO₂ emissions The 2015 Paris Agreement defined a bold ambition to limit global warming intensity by at least 40% by 2030, and pursuing to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. In response, many efforts towards 70% by 2050, relative to a countries, industries and individual organisations have set targets to limit their 2008 baseline.11 While this is not binding, carbon emissions and started developing plans on how to reach them. There is no shortage of positive signs, but 03 Global CO₂ Emissions by Sector¹ 04 IMO Timetable to Reduce GHG Emissions¹ the international community can do more to address climate change. As the United Nations Environment Program notes, “on current Initial IMO Revised IMO Reduction of Reduction of unconditional pledges, the world is heading Σ 30 % Strategy on Strategy CO₂ emissions CO₂ emissions Harder-to-abate for a 3.2°C temperature rise.”10 It is clear that sectors reduction of GHG (incl. mid term per transport per transport emissions measures work by at least work by 70% a more focused, industry-specific and action- Ambitions set 2023‑2030) 40%, from 2008 oriented approach is required to facilitate and 70,0% 2.7% baseline 50% reduction accelerate decarbonisation efforts. Other¹ Shipping Chemicals of total GHG emissions from 2008 baseline The challenge is particularly pronounced in six Aviation harder-to-abate sectors that, according to the 2018 2019 2023 20252025 2030 2050 Cement International Energy Agency, currently account for around 30% of global CO₂ emissions (see Iron and steel Impact Exhibit 03). These industries share common assessment characteristics, such as long asset lifespans, Resolution Road freight on ports and high energy dependency, and complexity shipping of electrification. Decarbonisation of these cooperation EEDI phase 3: GHG Technical 30% reduction in industries will, therefore, be slower, more cooperation Trust carbon intensity investment-intensive and a more technically Fund established takes effect demanding endeavour compared to other industries. As other industries decarbonise more rapidly, pressure and focus on harder-to-abate Past dates Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2017; IEA 2014 baseline value assumptions; Deloitte analysis. Notes: 1) Other includes feedstock, buildings, industries is expected to increase. light transport Source: IMO. Notes: 1) Selection of activities – not comprehensive Future dates 19 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 20
05 Shipping Volume, Emissions and GDP Growth GHG EMISSIONS 225 IN SHIPPING Shipping volume¹ + 93% 200 175 World GDP² +65% 150 Shipping emissions³ Where we are: Shipping is critical to Where we are: Shipping is the +39% the global economy and accounts for most efficient means of transport 125 around 2.7% of global emissions. and continues to make efficiency Index, year 2000 = 100 improvements as volume grows. 100 In the words of one interviewee, shipping is the “backbone of the global economy,” allowing Due to the colossal size of ships and the the world to trade more goods over greater continual drive for efficiency, shipping is by far 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 distances than any other mode of transport. It the least emissions-intensive mode of transport has historically grown in lockstep with economic (see Exhibit 06). A large vessel emits 1% of Source: UNCTAD; World Bank; IEA; Deloitte analysis Notes: 1) Shipping volume indicates ton-miles (how many tons of cargo were shipped over how many miles); activity. For instance, between 2000 and 2018, the CO₂ per ton-km that is emitted by a plane 2) World GDP in constant 2010 $, to eliminate effect of inflation; 3) International shipping shown, accounting for over 80% of global shipping global GDP increased by approximately 65% and 14% of the CO₂ emitted by the next most while international shipping volumes increased efficient transport alternative – a cargo train.16 by 93% over the same period (see Exhibit 05).12 06 Emissions by Mode of Transport The shipping industry continues to improve g CO₂/ton-km1, 2, 3 The industry currently accounts for around 2.7% its efficiency. Over the last two decades, 435 of global CO₂ emissions, but emissions are shipping volumes have increased by 101% while geographically concentrated across East-West emissions only grew by 40% over the same time trade routes and a relatively small set of vessel frame. This is due to increased scale, technical A large vessel emits 1% of CO₂ types.13 Bulk carriers, oil tankers and container innovation and far-reaching operational per ton-km of a plane (5/435) and ships account for around 85% of all shipping improvements. 14% of a cargo train (5/35) activity (see Exhibit 07),14 while around 45% of international maritime trade passes through the For instance, today’s largest container vessels 20 largest global ports.15 can carry around 22,000 containers, compared with a maximum of around 1,000 containers in Interviewees believe this concentration of the early 1970s. Ship sizes have doubled over 80 emissions from specific uses and on specific the past decade alone, reducing their carbon 35 routes creates an opportunity. An operator from intensity and also reducing the average shipping 5 Asia-Pacific region said, “it allows us to focus our cost per container by roughly a third.17 Air Road Rail Shipping efforts on a small number of vessels and ports for the greatest impact.” Source: IMO GHG study 2009. Notes: 1) Energy-efficient transport is much dependent on the load factor, vehicle efficiency and cargo type; heavier cargo and larger vehicles will improve the cargo/vehicle weight ratio, resulting in better CO₂/ton-km values; 2) Air = Boeing 747, Road = Truck > 40 ton, Rail = 3-4 hp / short-ton, Shipping = Average of very large container vessel (3 gCO₂/ton-km), oil tanker (6), bulk carrier (8); 3) Estimations assuming current energy mix 21 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 22
07 Global Shipping Fleet¹ ~85% of total emissions Bulk Carriers General Cargo³ Gas Carriers Σ~51.7k Σ~1,962 Σ~930 11.3 842 ~440 11.2 84 ~40 1.7 69 ~30 vessels DWT² MtCO₂ k M DWT Mt CO₂ k M DWT Mt CO₂ k M DWT Mt CO₂ Source: UNCTAD; IMO; IEA; Deloitte analysis Notes: 1) Ships of >1,000 gross tons, representing 99% of global tonnage; 2) DWT = Dead Weight Tonnage, an indicator of capacity; 3) General cargo includes multipurpose transport and other unclassified vessels; 4) Large ferries included. There is another ~8k+ of ferries < 1,000 gross tons Oil Tankers Offshore Vessels Chemical Tankers 10.8 568 ~210 7.0 80 ~30 3.4 46 ~20 k M DWT Mt CO₂ k M DWT Mt CO₂ k M DWT Mt CO₂ Container Ships Cruise Ships / Ferries⁴ 5.3 266 ~140 1.0 7 ~20 k M DWT Mt CO₂ k M DWT Mt CO₂ 23 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 24
The industry has also become more production efficiency and reduce the benefits of efficient through operational and technical having factories in distant, lower-cost locations. improvements. Between 1976 and 2008, the This could lead to a reduction in subcontractor carbon efficiency per weight-distance of some layers and bring production closer to end vessels improved by 75%.18 Interviewees believe markets, resulting in lower demand for shipping an additional 10 to 20% reduction in emissions services. Shifting consumer preferences and can be achieved with technical innovations and trade protectionism may also have a similar digitalisation opportunities such as just-in-time negative impact on shipping volumes. arrivals, to cut the time that ships spend waiting outside ports. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced shipping volumes. By April Efficiency improvements are a central way to 2020, up to 60% of China’s shipping capacity meet the IMO’s 2030 ambition, but the industry in Asia-Europe routes was idle.19 While the will require a more fundamental shift in fuel as impact has been acute, interviewees believe it shipping volumes continue to grow. will be a relatively short-term disruption and the industry will show signs of recovery by 2021.20 Where we are: The growth in shipping volumes will increase pressure to While these demand-side factors may accelerate decarbonisation. individually decrease demand for shipping, interview participants do not believe they will Interviewees say that several trends in demand fully offset growth in demand. Trade volumes will influence shipping volumes and emissions in and, in turn, shipping emissions are expected to the coming years (see Exhibit 08). For instance, continue to grow, increasing the importance of automation and 3D printing could improve addressing barriers to decarbonisation. 08 Trends in Shipping Demand Impact on global Trend shipping demand Global economic growth (particularly from developing regions) More agile supply chains and nearshoring, enabled for example through production automation and 3D printing Trade protectionism and trade barriers Shifting consumer behaviour, for example circular economy, more conscious purchasing Short term: Trade growth post-COVID 19 NET IMPACT Note: Trends identified are not exhaustive nor conclusive Colour indicates estimated magnitude of impact LOW HIGH 25 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 26
The Deadlock: Barriers to Decarbonisation
Based on responses from industry executives, the DECARBONISATION shipping sector scores on the low side in terms of its readiness to decarbonise, especially when compared with some other transport sectors READINESS FACTORS (see Exhibit 09). The following sections focus on these six factors in greater detail. A systematic approach to assess the industry’s readiness to decarbonise was developed in collaboration with industry leaders by focusing on three core questions. Then, based on a wide range of responses, we converged on six decarbonisation readiness factors for the sector. We further refined these in workshops with industry leaders from across the globe. These factors are described in detail below. Why should the sector change? i.e. what 4. Clarity on Roles and might trigger industry stakeholders to act: Decision-Making: The ease in making decisions, clarity on the roles and 1. Market and Customer Demand: responsibilities of key groups in the industry, Pressure and incentives from society, and whether their priorities are aligned. customers, financiers and investors which create motivation for ship owners and How fast can the sector change? operators to change. i.e. what effort is required to implement change at scale: 2. Regulatory Incentives: Instruments applied by global regulators and regional 5. Ease of Asset Replacement: What and local authorities. These can include it takes to replace or upgrade the ships. incentives such as tax cuts and disincentives This depends on ship cost, complexity and like fines and carbon levies. lifespan, and the rate at which alternative technologies are developed. Can the sector change? i.e. is decarbonisation feasible in a foreseeable future: 6. Ease of Infrastructure Replacement: What it takes to set up 3. Technology Alignment: Technical green production of new fuels at scale, and commercial feasibility of alternative deliver them to ports and prepare for fuels and other lower emission technology bunkering. The more production capacity alongside clarity on how to further develop needed and the more dispersed the these. infrastructure, the greater the challenge. 29 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 30
09 Decarbonisation Readiness Assessment Readiness questions Readiness factors Participants’ view on criticality of barriers Personal vehicles Shipping Why should the sector change? 1. Market and Customer Demand ~85% Minor barrier 0% Major barrier (illustrative, reference only) 100% 2. Regulatory Incentives ~70% Minor barrier 0% Major barrier 100% Can the sector change? 3. Technology Alignment ~80% Minor barrier 0% Major barrier 100% 4. Clarity on Roles and Decision-Making ~50% Minor barrier 0% Major barrier 100% How fast can the sector change? 5. Ease of Asset Replacement ~60% Minor barrier 0% Major barrier 100% 6. Ease of Infrastructure Replacement ~65% Minor barrier 0% Major barrier 100% 31 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 32
Exhibit 10 MARKET AND Industry Perspective: Financiers do not have the risk appetite to fund unproven technologies. CUSTOMER DEMAND Shipping companies rely heavily on loans, which make up approximately 70% of capital in the sector.21 According to most interviewees, loans have dried up in recent years as pressure INTERVIEW INSIGHTS has mounted on industry profitability. Smaller 85% Most interviewees indicate that incentives from customers and the broader ship owners consider it particularly challenging financial market are critical to free up investments in decarbonisation to obtain funding for new ships, let alone for (see Exhibit 10). Such incentives are currently limited. more sustainable alternatives because financiers currently regard them as financially and operationally riskier. Industry Perspective: Customers and Interviewees see initial signs of more sustainable Recent initiatives in green finance, such as the Study participants perceive charterers are not willing to pay or practices in shipping procurement criteria set Poseidon Principles, are important signals of co-fund lower emission solutions. by companies that are under high regulatory progress.22 However, interviewees see them as a lack of market and or consumer pressure, such as the automotive, more relevant and accessible to large owners, customer demand Shipping plays an instrumental but invisible role food, luxury retail and some large commodities who already have good access to lower-cost to be a major barrier to in most consumers’ lives. “Limited awareness sectors. However, there is currently insufficient financing. means limited willingness to change the buying demand to unlock investments at scale. decarbonisation behaviour, especially when green products cost Industry Perspective: Lack of more,” as mentioned by an executive from a Industry Perspective: Investors have transparency regarding emissions transport and logistics company. no incentives to invest in companies hinders decision-making. with lower emission solutions. Lower emission shipping will result in additional To enable decarbonisation activity, there cost, especially during the early transition Returns to shareholders of shipping companies must be better transparency of emissions period. Interviewees indicated that charterers have been low over the last decade; therefore, across the sector. Without transparency, it will and other shipping customers currently have major operators have been reluctant to make be impossible for customers, investors and limited appetite for additional costs, citing major investments that may further erode financiers to identify top performers and to verify competitiveness concerns and the fact that margins. commitments. shipping often represents a small proportion of their total emissions and cost. There are examples of shareholder activism Such data is not available today, as emissions Calls for more transparency are intensifying, leading to sustainability commitments, such as reporting is only conducted for regulatory with some customers and charterers requiring “Shipping faces less scrutiny scope 3 emissions targets, but “returns still take purposes and remains largely confidential. In emissions profiles and performance data for the from end consumers than precedence over all other factors,” said an executive from a ship management company. addition, interviewees noted that consistent collection and comparison of data would ships that they use. As transparency grows, it will become easier for first mover operators to aviation and road freight Consequently, executive teams at ship-owning be challenging given the lack of accepted differentiate themselves by demonstrating the where visibility is high” companies remain reluctant to make investments calculation standards. impact of their investments on emissions. in lower emission technologies, which their Shipping Operator shareholders may regard as imprudent. 33 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 34
REGULATORY INCENTIVES The IMO’s 2050 ambition has created a common goal for the industry. However, most interviewees believe more clarity is needed regarding binding regulations, which will be instrumental to unlock progress (see Exhibit 11). Exhibit 11 Industry Perspective: Lack of Industry Perspective: Enacting global Industry Perspective: The industry is binding regulation regarding carbon regulation is a slow and complex worried that misalignment of global emissions limits progress. process with many interests to align. and local regulation may lead to an uneven playing field. Interviewees indicate that historically there “IMO 2020 took over 15 is limited evidence of the shipping industry implementing major changes without new years, and that was simpler Interviewees acknowledge that if global regulation takes too long, there is a risk global INTERVIEW INSIGHTS regulations. The IMO 2020 regulations provide than decarbonisation” or regional bodies move first, creating an 70% a case in point. Interviewees indicated that Shipping Operator uneven regulatory landscape and unnecessary despite advance notice, many companies were complexity. unprepared for the changes and had to make The IMO has 174 member-states, and most last-minute investments to comply. interviewees believe that developing and For the most part, interviewees believe adopting new global regulation will be very this could cause competitiveness issues In general terms, interviewees hold two views time consuming. Interviewees wait with caution and increase the cost of compliance. As on the role of regulation. A slight majority for more guidance on binding targets, expected an example, many interviewees flagged a Study participants perceive believe that nothing can be done until in 2023.23 possibility that the European Union could a lack of regulatory regulation becomes clearer. A sizeable minority define emission regulations before the IMO, incentives to be a major indicate that the industry should take proactive However, most believe the long wait for global creating an uneven playing field. Companies steps ahead of regulation. In the words of regulations will be worth it if it creates a level with Europe-based operations could then end barrier to decarbonisation the CEO of one tanker operator, the lack of playing field across the globe. A chairman of an up carrying a larger proportion of the early regulation is used “as an excuse to do nothing, Asia-based global operator noted, “it is either decarbonisation costs than their competitors even though there are no regret activities that a level playing field across the globe, or speed. from other parts of the world. can be taken today.” You cannot have both. The power of the IMO is its member nations working together, but that takes time.” 35 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 36
Exhibit 12 TECHNOLOGY viable alternative. If fuel cell technology was INTERVIEW INSIGHTS ALIGNMENT 80% developed before hydrogen or ammonia are available at scale, transition fuels like LNG could potentially be used, and switched to a new fuel when it emerges. “Hydrogen economy is the The shipping fuel landscape has not evolved a great deal since the transition ultimate solution, but still Study participants perceive from coal in the 1950s. 80% of interviewees indicated that technology alignment is needed if the industry is to meet the IMO’s 2050 ambition, many years away” a lack of technology especially regarding which new fuels will be used where (see Exhibit 12). Ship Manager alignment to be a major Yet the pathway to powering net-zero vessels remains uncertain. barrier to decarbonisation Ammonia and hydrogen have different characteristics. Hydrogen requires more storage volume than ammonia for the same range, while Industry Perspective: Alternative fuels methane emissions in the supply chain and that both hydrogen and ammonia require more that support the 2050 ambition have it may distract the industry from investments in storage volume than HFO and LNG. Given that technical limitations, are unproven zero-emission fuels. energy density plays a more important role on and/or perceived as unsafe. ships than on land, one executive from a global producing these fuels sustainably will decrease. Hydrogen and Ammonia shipping technology company noted, “if on As one interviewee put it, “the scale of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Interviewees consider hydrogen and ammonia land hydrogen becomes the big thing, ammonia investments we see in green hydrogen globally LNG is 20 to 25% less carbon intensive than to be the most promising long-term fuel could be a good option for shipping, as it is a means it will become cost effective much Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO), and emits less nitrogen alternatives for shipping, although neither of good way of carrying hydrogen.” Ammonia is faster than we think.” Conversely, there is little oxides (NOx) and sulphur oxides (SOx). them is viable today. also already used in fertilizers. As such, there is evidence that other industries consider ammonia some existing infrastructure that could be used, as a future fuel. For that reason, if shipping was The prevailing view among interviewees is that Hydrogen and ammonia have significantly and “the shipping industry has had experience to select ammonia as its dominant fuel, it is likely LNG will have a role to play as a transition fuel lower energy density than HFO, requiring handling it for over 30 years.” However, some that the infrastructure costs would be borne in the next decade. As an executive at a global either new technology, more frequent refuelling interviewees are concerned about ammonia’s entirely by this sector. bulk ship owner and operator said; “It took stops, or compromised cargo space to store high ignition energy and toxicity, with one many years for LNG to become viable, it is the fuel. In addition, interviewees highlighted that Asia-based bulk ship operator saying that “we Other alternative fuels only alternative we have today, and it will get us hydrogen requires ultra-low cryogenic conditions have been trying for the last 20 years to stop Biofuels are made from biomass. Synthetic fuels under the 2030 IMO target.” to maintain its liquid state under atmospheric transporting ammonia by ships as it is toxic and are produced using a combination of hydrogen pressure, creating potential for additional difficult to handle.” and carbon monoxide. These fuels are relatively These interviewees pointed out that LNG costs. The storage challenge could be offset easy to adopt because they can largely use adoption is increasing, and some ship owners by adopting energy-efficient technology and Current production of ammonia and hydrogen existing infrastructure and existing engines. But are in the process of taking on LNG-powered moving from internal combustion engines to represents a small fraction of what the shipping given the large volume of fuel needed for the ships to reduce emissions. fuel cells. This potentially makes the ships industry would require. A common concern is the industry and the land and biomass required to more efficient, while saving space on ships. high cost to produce hydrogen and ammonia in produce it, interviewees raised concerns about Others were more reserved about the role of However, most interviewees believe that a low-carbon or carbon-neutral way. However, the availability of biofuels in enough quantities. LNG, pointing out that it will be insufficient to fuel cell technology is immature. It will likely in a scenario of abundant renewable power meet the 2050 ambition, carries the risk of take at least 5-10 years before it becomes a and as technology costs decline, the cost of 37 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 38
More scepticism was expressed regarding one Europe-based operator suggested that, Interviewees indicated that many onshore operator put it, “shipping uses the lowest quality the use of batteries. As one executive from a “if climate change accelerates, the negative sectors are also undergoing transitions in energy fuel from refineries, which means it’s cheap and cruise company put it, “electrifying small ships is connotations of nuclear will be secondary to source and that decisions made on land will no one else wants it.” As a result, new fuels will great, but most emissions come from deep-sea global warming.” have major consequences for which fuel will be likely cost more and will require the industry to shipping, and there are no viable options to viable in shipping. One executive from a global compete for supply with other industries. address that with batteries.” Exhibit 13 provides a summary of interviewees’ bulk ship operator indicated that, “most of these assessment of key alternative fuels. technologies will have to find their way into land- Without a stronger commercial or regulatory “If we don’t get our based sectors first, before being adopted in incentive, operators are sceptical about their act together, we will still Industry Perspective: Too many future fuels are being considered, shipping. It is easier to develop these on land”. ability to find a fuel that is a viable alternative to HFO. They indicate that many stakeholders be talking about ten and there is a lack of clarity on how Industry Perspective: HFO is hard will need to play a part to develop and different fuels when the the preferred fuel(s) will be chosen to to match in terms of commercial commercialise new technology. If a viable allow for scale. attractiveness and existing scale. alternative is not found, various forms of carbon deadline flies by” offsets will be required to reduce net emissions Shipping Operator Many interviewees expressed concerns that the HFO, shipping’s primary energy carrier today, is to levels that support the sector’s ambition. range of fuel options being considered is still cheap, energy-dense and has well-established Finally, some US-based operators suggested too broad. This results in effort and investment supply chains. As a by-product of the refining that, “nuclear is really the only solution that being spread too thin and challenges efforts process, it is used by few other industries which exists today that could be implemented to coalesce around a viable solution in time to creates more certainty around cost and supply. relatively quickly.” To strengthen that point, meet targets. As one executive from an Asia-based tanker 13 Industry Perspective on Alternative Fuels Fuel Part of future mix? Engine type View on technology View on applicability to Advantages Disadvantages (% participants) maturity shipping Green Hydrogen 65% Combustion Medium Medium Cross-sector applications – possibly Cost faster R&D Low energy density Cryogenic storage conditions Electric Low High Less space for engine and better (fuel cell) specs than combustion Green Ammonia 55% Combustion Medium High Relatively high energy density Cost Port experience in handling Toxicity Electric Low High Less space for engine and better (fuel cell) specs than combustion Biofuels 10% Combustion High Low Easy to implement in current engines Limited feedstock, unlikely to be available to shipping Methanol 10% Combustion Rarely mentioned Rarely mentioned Rarely mentioned Rarely mentioned Batteries < 5% Electric High Low Mature technology Extremely low energy density – size and weight of batteries Nuclear < 5% Heat Medium Low Mature technology Very high investment, social aversion 39 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 40
Exhibit 14 CLARITY ON ROLES Industry Perspective: Contracting INTERVIEW INSIGHTS models are inflexible, hindering 50% investments that support lower- AND DECISION- carbon emissions. Interviewees indicate that optimising ship MAKING operations, such as speed management or just-in-time port arrivals, is one of the largest potential areas of emissions reduction in the short term. Study participants perceive a lack of clarity on Decarbonisation is a complex process and requires decision-making with a roles and decision- high degree of global alignment. Interviewees noted concerns regarding the making to be a major industry’s ability to clarify roles and decision-making power of key stakeholders, barrier to decarbonisation which could negatively impact the effective allocation of resources in the sector (see Exhibit 14). 15 Shipping Value Chain Industry Perspective: The global Different forms of company ownership add fleet is owned by many small extra complexity. State-owned enterprises, % Market share of top 10 players – Shipping customers Currently key decision companies, and multiple stakeholders large publicly listed corporations, large private ILLUSTRATIVE makers in ship design (e.g. consumer goods companies) are involved in ship operations, companies and numerous small, often family- not shown which complicates decision-making run, businesses all play important roles in the regarding new technologies. industry. Varying forms of ownership mean differing approaches to decarbonisation. As Engine Ship Ship Ship Ship operators Freight manufacturers builders owners managers and charterers forwarders / 3PL Ownership of the global shipping fleet is one executive from a chemical ship operator fragmented, with the top 10 ship owners put it, “state-owned entities are under the most making up less than 20% of total capacity. social pressure, public companies face a mix The remaining 80% of the fleet is owned by of social and commercial pressure, and private
However, decisions about speed and port arrival times are often dictated by charter party agreements, which many interviewees say are inflexible and, therefore, disincentivise improvements. “We could get a 10% CO₂ reduction and fuel-cost savings by optimising arrival times like airlines. But contracts mean we would not get the benefits” Shipping Operator Charterers are often equally unable to invest in new on-board solutions to improve vessel efficiency. Asset owners are typically responsible for new investment decisions but rarely reap the benefits of resulting efficiency. 43 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 44
Exhibit 16 EASE OF ASSET Some shipping leaders are more optimistic, pointing out that the industry has successfully INTERVIEW INSIGHTS transitioned fleets in the past. For example, after REPLACEMENT 60% the introduction of new design regulations for tankers in 1992, the entire fleet was changed from single to double-hull design in under 25 years. “Our timer doesn’t start until we get our fuel, and the Study participants perceive Today’s ships are huge feats of engineering, requiring major capital and complexity several years to build. They are also costly to modify. Interviewees highlighted clock is already ticking” the risks of investing in new ships and the time it will take to replace the fleet as Ship owner of asset replacement key challenges (see Exhibit 16). to be a major barrier to decarbonisation Industry Perspective: Ship owners mentioned LNG-powered propulsion are reluctant to invest in net-zero installations, which can be made ammonia- vessels due to risks resulting from lack ready with a relatively small investment. of clarity regarding future fuels and regulation. Industry Perspective: Ship lifespans are long, requiring significant time to Interviewees highlighted that the lack of clarity replace existing fleets. regarding regulation and future fuels has exacerbated conservatism in the industry and Given the average lifespan of a ship, generated a reluctance to invest in new ships to interviewees acknowledge that transitioning “avoid the risk of getting locked into a wrong the global fleet will take 20 to 30 years, even technology,” said an executive from a global if a viable zero-carbon fuel was available shipping financier. today. Considering the IMO’s 2030 and 2050 ambitions, this creates significant pressure to “There is a risk that new identify viable fuel alternatives as soon as fuels or regulation will make possible. new ships obsolete” Most interviewees indicate that the industry Shipbuilder will need to make greater progress in operational efficiencies, retrofitting and ship Additionally, some interviewees noted that the decommissioning to transition the fleet in time. industry is starting to recognise that current ship However, many believe that retrofits are costly, designs are inflexible. Designers and technology and, as margins are under pressure, they need providers are focusing on improving flexibility to to “sweat the assets,” in the words of the CEO allow easier switching between fuels or lower of a large tanker operator. cost of retrofits. For example, a few interviewees 45 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 46
EASE OF INFRASTRUCTURE REPLACEMENT The shipping industry consumes 3.3 pWh (~12EJ) of energy annually.24 Transitioning the world’s fleet to a new source of energy will, therefore, take a huge effort to build out the necessary fuel production and bunkering infrastructure. Most interviewees consider this a major barrier to decarbonisation (see Exhibit 17). Exhibit 17 Industry Perspective: Infrastructure to produce zero-emission fuels will require significant investment, time to scale up and will depend on decisions INTERVIEW INSIGHTS in other sectors. 65% There is currently very limited infrastructure for the sustainable production of alternative fuels being explored by the industry. Several interviewees cited a recent study by the University Maritime Advisory Services, which estimates that 87% of the $1.65 trillion cost to Study participants decarbonise shipping by 2050 will need to be perceive complexity dedicated to creating supply and bunkering of infrastructure infrastructure.25 replacement to While bunkering infrastructure will be specific be a major barrier to to shipping, fuel production is a broader global decarbonisation challenge involving many sectors of the global economy. As such, interviewees recognise the need to collaborate with onshore sectors and energy companies to secure reliable fuel supply. 47 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 48
Industry Perspective: Bunkering infrastructure in a few key ports could have a Given the uncertainties, developing the The main barriers to shipping decarbonisation providers and ship operators are disproportionate impact due to the needs of bunkering infrastructure will be one of the are summarised in Exhibit 18. The changing waiting on each other to make the large container lines and regular bulk routes. most time-consuming steps in shipping paradigm and solutions to address the barriers initial investments in net-zero ships For instance, 20 ports handle around 45% of decarbonisation. and meet the IMO’s 2050 ambition are and infrastructure. global container trade26. In the words of one explored in the next section. classification society, “building infrastructure in “Why would I build a ship Given the uncertainty over fuels, neither ports nor ship owners are willing to make investments the top five ports would already help a lot.” that runs on a new fuel until in new technologies. However, port decisions on adopting new fuels I know I can fuel it. And no and building out the infrastructure will take time. new bunkering will be built The biggest challenge in the shift to a new fuel “With LNG, it took some ports ten years to go is in tramp trade, where ships do not operate through the authorities, and that was when they until there is a market” according to a predetermined schedule. Ships knew they wanted LNG,” said an executive at a Ship operator operating in this way require a near-ubiquitous large European operator. supply of fuel. Conversely, developing 18 Decarbonisation Readiness Summary Readiness factors Main barriers Why should 1. Market and Customer Customers and charterers are not willing to Investors have no incentives to invest in Financiers do not have the risk appetite Lack of transparency around emissions the sector Demand pay or co‑fund lower emission solutions companies with lower emission solutions to fund unproven technologies hinders decision-making change? 2. Regulatory Incentives Lack of binding regulation around carbon Enacting global regulation is a slow, and The industry is worried that misalignment of emissions limits progress complex process with many interests to global and local regulation may lead to an align uneven playing field Can the sector 3. Technology Alignment Alternative fuels that support 2050 ambition Too many future fuels are being HFO is hard to match in terms of commercial change? have technical limitations, are considered, and there is lack of clarity attractiveness and existing scale unproven and / or perceived as on how the preferred fuel(s) will be unsafe chosen to allow for scale 4. Clarity on Roles and The global fleet is owned by many small Contracting models are inflexible Decision-Making companies and multiple stakeholders hindering investments that support lower carbon are involved in ship operations, complicating emissions decision-making around new technologies How fast can 5. Ease of Asset Ship owners are reluctant to invest in Ship lifespans are long, requiring the sector Replacement net-zero vessels due to risks resulting from significant time to replace existing fleets change? lack of clarity around future fuels and regulation Severity Major 6. Ease of Infrastructure Infrastructure to produce zero emission Bunkering providers and ship operators are Replacement fuels will require significant investment, waiting on each other to make the Moderate time to scale up and will depend on initial investments in net-zero ships and decisions in other sectors infrastructure Minor 49 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK 50
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