Against All Odds, Libya's Peace Process Makes Substantial Progress - ReliefWeb

Briefing Note                          Published 15 February 2021

                       Crisis Group Libya Update #4

This Briefing Note assesses the outcome of a UN-backed forum that took place in Geneva from 1-5
February and where Libyan delegates elected a new interim executive. It is the fourth in a series
of regular updates on efforts to end Libya’s civil war.

Against All Odds, Libya’s Peace Process
Makes Substantial Progress
            n 5 February, Libyan delegates           into one group based in Tobruk, eastern Libya,

O           attending UN-hosted political talks
            in Geneva nominated a new unified
interim executive for their country, which has
                                                     and another in the capital Tripoli. Another is for
                                                     Dabaiba to propose a cabinet line-up that satis-
                                                     fies all constituencies. Negotiations are under
been split in two regions, each administered         way, but it will be taxing for the prime minister-
separately, since 2014. They chose eastern           designate to meet all the factions’ demands
Libya’s Mohamed Mnefi to head a new three-           even if he proceeds with the bloated cabinet of
person Presidency Council and a businessman          30 ministers that he appears to be considering.
from Misrata in western Libya, Abdulhamid                That said, parliamentary approval of the
Dabaiba, as prime minister-designate. If             new cabinet is not impossible. The political
confirmed, this executive would serve until          atmosphere in Libya has improved signifi-
elections in late 2021. The Mnefi-Dabaiba list       cantly since 2015, when a similar attempt to
won by a slim majority in a race with other          win parliamentary backing for a UN-backed
heavyweights including the eastern parlia-           transitional authority failed. While at that time
ment’s speaker, Aghela Saleh, and the Tripoli        the main actors’ attitudes were confrontational,
government’s interior minister, Fathi Bashaga.       today both camps have adopted a more concil-
It was a significant accomplishment that dur-        iatory tone.
ing the marathon five-day proceedings, which
were broadcast live on the internet and Libyan       An Unexpected Outcome
television, no controversy arose. The losing         When, in November 2020, the UN launched
candidates conceded defeat. This outcome sets        the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, few
the right tone for returning to peaceful, healthy    expected it to reach agreement on a new interim
political competition in Libya after years of        government. It seemed destined for discord,
bellicose rhetoric and a fifteen-month war that      as it comprised 74 delegates sent by the two
ended in June 2020. To translate this prelimi-       rival assemblies in addition to several UN-
nary result into a concrete step toward unifying     handpicked independents representing a broad
a country, the nominees and the cabinet they         spectrum of the country’s military, political and
propose must now pass a vote of confidence in        tribal factions. At first, progress was indeed
the House of Representatives.                        stumbling. The forum laid out a roadmap to
    It will not be easy. One challenge is to bring   elections, but its members were deadlocked
together the House’s members, who are split          for over two months on how to select top state

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · LIBYA UPDATE #4 · 15 FEBRUARY 2021                                          2

                                                                                                             UNSMIL
A UN official shows the ballot box to participants of the UN-hosted Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in
Geneva, 5 February 2021.

officials. Delegates and UN officials assumed              deadline could run for these positions. From 1-5
that the forum would agree on a new executive          February, over 40 candidates presented them-
by consensus (ijma), as members had done with          selves through video link to the forum members
the roadmap. This approach would have been             in Geneva. Libyans at home could also follow
in line with other UN-mediated peace talks, in         the proceedings, which were broadcast live.
which rival factions negotiate arrangements            Although some Libyans outside the forum ques-
that are acceptable to all, but it would likely        tioned the legitimacy of the UN-backed process,
have been arduous and time-consuming.                  high-level politicians from across the spectrum
    Instead, the forum opted for something             and spanning the civil war’s divide endorsed it
entirely different. To select the new executive,        de facto by joining the race.
delegates agreed in late January to hold an elec-          Following a nail-biting four-day voting
tion with two possible voting procedures: the          session, an unexpected result emerged. The
first vote on prospective nominees was to take         region-based vote did not produce a winner, so
place on a regional (geographic) basis, and, if        voting followed the joint ticket system. Of four
that failed (in the eventuality that none of the       groups of candidates running in the joint ticket
candidates reached the required 60 per cent            vote, delegates narrowed the lists down to two
endorsement), voting would then take place             after a first round of voting. The forum then
between joint tickets specifying the candidates        picked a winning slate on 5 February with 39
for the prime minister’s slot and three Presi-         votes of 74. It comprised Dabaiba, a business-
dency Council positions. These officials would           man with ties to the former Qadhafi regime,
jointly lead the country until general elec-           as prime minister-designate and Mnefi, from
tions that have been scheduled for late 2021.          the east and a former Libyan ambassador to
Any Libyan who received endorsements from              Greece, Musa Koni from the south and Abdul-
at least two forum members by a 28 January             lah al-Lafi from the west as Presidency Council

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · LIBYA UPDATE #4 · 15 FEBRUARY 2021                                      3

                “ In a great and unexpected display of political
           sportsmanship, all the losing candidates conceded defeat
                        and congratulated the winners. ”

members. By virtue of an implicit understand-        Another unforeseen development is that Haftar
ing that, if the prime minister is from western      and his forces, which backed another set of can-
Libya – Dabaiba is from Misrata in the west          didates who lost in an earlier stage of the race,
– an easterner should head the Presidency            embraced the winning ticket. On 6 February,
Council, Mnefi is due to become the Council’s        Haftar’s spokesperson stated that his group is
president.                                           ready to work with the elected leaders; in a sub-
    The result was a blow to supporters of the       sequent televised interview, he went so far as to
list defeated in the run-off, which included          claim that his side accepted that the new Presi-
Bashaga and Saleh, who had formed an alli-           dency Council would also act as the supreme
ance of convenience that some foreign officials,       commander of the armed forces. This statement
especially in Paris and Cairo, had expected          is nothing short of a U-turn: earlier, Haftar had
and may have quietly hoped to win. Dabaiba’s         flatly rejected the idea that the armed forces
victory was not so much an endorsement of his        could come under the oversight of a body not
list (many Libyans are wary of his family name,      directly elected by the Libyan people. The
which they associate with Qadhafi-era corrup-        Haftar camp’s reversal is all the more surprising
tion) as a rejection of Bashaga and Saleh. Many      given that it has no obvious ally in the nomi-
delegates and their constituents were annoyed        nated line-up. Mnefi, the would-be eastern rep-
by the pair’s evident confidence of prevailing.      resentative in the Presidency Council, is close
But they also had substantive concerns: Basha-       to Tripoli-based politicians who defended the
ga’s anti-militia agenda engendered the opposi-      capital from Haftar’s military assault. Nonethe-
tion of powerful armed groups and politicians        less, the field marshal gave Mnefi the red-carpet
in Tripoli, who also rejected Saleh’s support        treatment when he travelled to Benghazi on 11
for Haftar’s war in Tripoli. Haftar, for his part,   February. Mnefi is scheduled to tour the rest of
considered Saleh, his nominal ally, unreliable.      eastern Libya in the coming days.
                                                         Politicians aligned with the Tripoli-based
Cautiously Positive Reactions to                     authorities have not generally enjoyed a warm
the New Interim Executive                            welcome in the east. But Mnefi could be an
In a great and unexpected display of politi-         exception as he hails from the tribe of Libyan
cal sportsmanship, all the losing candidates         anti-colonial hero Omar al-Mukhtar. Dabaiba,
conceded defeat and congratulated the winners.       for his part, has a broad network of business
Faiez Serraj, the current head of the Tripoli-       associates across the country, including in the
based Presidency Council, also welcomed the          east, and many consider him a pragmatist with
result. These reactions are remarkable given         whom one can strike deals.
the rancour and zero-sum mentality that often            For now, the Mnefi-Dabaiba ticket appears
prevail in the Libyan political arena. Also          to have the tacit support of important actors
surprising is the absence of controversies, such     in western Libya, including armed groups in
as allegations of vote buying, surrounding the       Tripoli that were relieved to see their fiercest
election. Such accusations surfaced two months       adversary, Bashaga, lose the race. Yet should
ago, but thus far no one has come forward to         Dabaiba or Mnefi appear to be cosying up or
substantiate them. These signs would seem to         conceding too much to Haftar, some anti-Haf-
indicate that no one is working actively to spoil    tar personalities who have supported them so
the Mnefi-Dabaiba team’s prospects.                  far could be pushed to change their positions.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · LIBYA UPDATE #4 · 15 FEBRUARY 2021                                        4

    International reactions have also been posi-     Haftar’s side. A sense of urgency about cutting
tive. An array of countries, including the U.S.,     ties with foreign sponsors became palpable
the UK, Italy, France and Germany, who issued        during the UN-backed negotiations between
a joint statement, as well as the United Arab        representatives of Libya’s two military coali-
Emirates, Turkey and Egypt, expressed support        tions that have been taking place since October.
for the UN process and the newly nominated           All these interests converged within the political
leadership team. Turkish President Recep             class to push forward the negotiations over a
Tayyip Erdoğan and Egypt’s President Abdel-          new executive.
fattah al-Sisi made calls to the prime minister-     Another important element that is making
designate, while French President Emmanuel           the leadership team more palatable, at least
Macron and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey           in some easterners’ eyes, is the progress in
Lavrov telephoned both Dabaiba and Mnefi.            addressing financial disputes that have tar-
Diplomats express confidence that these ges-         nished relations between Tripoli and its eastern
tures are not merely the usual courtesies. For its   rivals for years. In early February, the Tripoli
part, the UN Security Council issued a presi-        government agreed to shoulder all the expen-
dential statement welcoming the interim execu-       ditures of the parallel authorities in the east,
tive’s nomination as “an important milestone in      including the Haftar-led forces’ salaries and
the Libyan political process”.                       operating costs, and to incorporate these out-
                                                     lays into the 2021 national budget. In exchange,
Broader Dynamics Build Momentum                      the east-based government committed to stop
The progress toward Libya’s political reunifica-     resorting to parallel revenue sources, such as
tion has not happened in a vacuum. Several           treasury bills, which they have been using since
factors played a role in the breakthrough.           2015. Moreover, also in early February, the
Libyans across the country have grown increas-       Central Bank of Libya agreed to offer a zero-
ingly frustrated with their leaders for failing to   interest credit line to a group of banks, for the
deliver basic services over the past few years.      most part based in eastern Libya. The region
Living conditions have deteriorated steadily.        has been badly affected by a financial crisis
Even though Libya’s political elites have a track    triggered when the central bank, along with the
record of resisting change, they have become         country’s other institutions, split in 2014.
conscious of the risk of backlash should they            Financial considerations could also factor
cleave to business as usual.                         into pro-Tripoli constituencies’ acceptance
    Another factor is the military stalemate that    of the new executive. Authorities in western
followed the assault on Tripoli. The defeat of       Libya know that only a unified government will
Haftar-led forces in their attempt to seize the      enable oil revenues – the country’s main source
capital, marked by their withdrawal from its         of income, now sequestered in an account man-
outskirts in June 2020, dealt a blow to their        aged by the National Oil Corporation – to revert
ambitions to impose their own Libyan govern-         to the state.
ment by force. Similarly, stakeholders in west-
ern Libya have become increasingly conscious         What Next?
that it would be hard for them to seize Haftar’s     For the time being, Dabaiba and Mnefi are
eastern strongholds by force without triggering      only prime minister-designate and Council
an even greater conflagration fuelled by for-        president-designate, respectively. They are not
eign sponsors of both sides. In addition, many       yet de facto heads of government, even though
Libyans have become weary of external interfer-      outside accounts, including the UN Security
ence in their affairs, particularly the presence of   Council presidential statement, which referred
foreign forces, whether the Turkish officers and       to them incorrectly as the “new interim author-
Syrian proxies openly supporting Tripoli or the      ity”, commonly misrepresent them as such.
Russian private security contractors covertly on     Parliamentary approval and a formal transfer

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · LIBYA UPDATE #4 · 15 FEBRUARY 2021                                   5

of power still need to take place. According to   to which a UN-backed commission represent-
the UN-backed roadmap, Dabaiba has until          ing Libya’s two rival military coalitions would
26 February to present a cabinet line-up to the   agree. Sirte, the city in central Libya where
House of Representatives. From that moment,       the military commission has its headquarters,
the latter has 21 days to approve or reject the   would be a natural choice. The issue remains
government. In case of rejection, the 74 forum    unresolved for now.
members could in theory decide to ratify the          House members should capitalise on
government unilaterally, a fallback option        developments to hold a vote on the proposed
designed for the eventuality that the House,      executive and cabinet when the latter is ready.
divided since 2014, proves unable or unwill-      The UN should actively support such efforts.
ing to meet or reach the minimum threshold        As Nuweri and Huma wrote in their statement:
needed for a confidence vote.                     “Let’s begin a new phase that closes the chapter
    Full and proper parliamentary approval is     of the past and proceed toward a better future”.
important, however, at the current juncture.      A symbolic meeting in Sirte, where a conference
Without it, the east-based authorities would      hall for this purpose is available, would indeed
probably keep operating as a parallel govern-     be a welcome step. But it would require the
ment, while the new interim Government of         joint military commission to guarantee all par-
National Unity, as Dabaiba proposes to call his   liamentarians’ safety and to secure access to the
executive, would lack the legal basis to work.    city’s airport, which has been off limits, includ-
The problem is that House members split into      ing to the commission itself, allegedly because
two factions in 2014, one based in Tobruk,        Russian private security contractors and fighter
where the House formally took its seat, and       jets are there. The UN could offer to facilitate
another in Tripoli. On the surface, dynamics      such a session and help ensure that flights are
between these two groups still appear con-        authorised to land in Sirte, should parliamen-
frontational, with one faction calling for the    tarians make such a request.
confidence vote to take place in Tobruk and the       The situation remains fragile; all the wel-
other demanding that it proceed somewhere         come progress thus far could still be reversed.
in western Libya. A middle-ground position        For the good of the country, Libyan and for-
has started to emerge, however. In a 10 Febru-    eign stakeholders need to build on the forum’s
ary statement, the two deputy House speak-        accomplishments and resist the temptation to
ers, Fawzi Nuweri and Hamid Huma, called          revert to spoiling tactics based on their long-
for a plenary session to take place in any city   standing zero-sum calculus.

            “ The situation remains fragile; all the welcome progress
                         thus far could still be reversed. ”