ACUTE MALNUTRITION BENCHMARKING SYSTEM FOR GLOBAL HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE
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ACUTE MALNUTRITION BENCHMARKING SYSTEM FOR GLOBAL HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE Helen Young1, Susanne Jaspars2, Tanya Khara and Steve Collins3 25 November 2005 INTRODUCTION Acute malnutrition among young children is one of the most widely used indicators of the extent and severity of a humanitarian crisis. There is a long history of its application in famine situations, refugee crises and complex emergencies dating back to the 1960s4. Since that time approaches and methods have been developed and standardized to such an extent that acute malnutrition has become one of the most standardized and reliable indicators used in emergencies. Purpose of the paper The purpose of this paper is threefold; • first, to review the role of nutritional information for assessing the nature of severity of the crisis, and as benchmarks for delivery and performance of humanitarian assistance; • second, to identify the areas of consensus and outstanding technical and institutional issues, and; • third to make recommendations on establishing an international system for assessing the nature and severity of the crisis, and as benchmarks for delivery and performance of humanitarian assistance. The paper first provides background on acute malnutrition and its use. This is followed by a review of the areas of consensus and outstanding technical issues. Next is a review of the institutional issues relating to the use of acute malnutrition as benchmarks, followed by conclusions and recommendations. Background The prevalence of wasting and nutritional oedema among children under 5 years of age is used as an indicator for the prevalence of acute malnutrition. In humanitarian 1 Feinstein International Famine Center, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University. 2 Independent Consultant 3 Valid International 4 Early efforts to estimate malnutrition occurred during the Nigerian civil war in Biafra, the famines in Ethiopia and among Cambodian refugees in Thailand. Black M. A Cause For Our Times Oxfam the First 50 Years. Oxford: Oxfam, 1992; Davis LE. Epidemiology of famine in the Nigerian crisis: rapid evaluation of malnutrition by height and arm circumference in large populations. Am J Clin Nutr 1971;24(3):358-64; Rivers. JPW, Holt JFJ, Seaman JA, Bowden MR. Lessons for epidemiology from the Ethiopian Famines. Annales de la Societe Belge de Medecine Tropicale 1976;56(4-5):345-357; 4. Seaman J, Holt J. The Ethiopian Famine of 1973-74, Wollo Province. Proceedings of the Nutritional Society 1975;34(114A). 1
emergencies, nutritional status is assessed using the Weight-for-Height/ Length (WFH/L) nutritional index and is based on body measurements (anthropometry). Cut-off’s are established for classifying moderate or severe acute malnutrition. INGOs and others usually gather this data using standardized survey techniques and also obtain data on possible underlying causes of malnutrition. Hence the nutritional index weight-for-height is used as a population indicator. Many agencies have developed thresholds to classify the severity of malnutrition in the sampled population. Information on prevalence and underlying causes is used to identify relief needs, to prioritise affected groups or geographical areas, to plan nutritional interventions, to target scarce resources, and also to monitor the effectiveness of aid programmes5. Over the past two decades the nutrition sector within the humanitarian system has demonstrated a remarkable degree of collaboration and cohesion in a range of joint initiatives aimed at addressing some of the more technical issues. These in turn have greatly contributed to improved practice, in terms of the application of standard procedures and protocols and the development of a collective process of institutional learning. Part of this process has been the regular, although ad hoc, meetings of representatives of this sector who come together to share and discuss common concerns6. Two recent global initiatives, Sphere and SMART, have used this existing emergency nutrition community for consensus building around standards, indicators and methods for nutrition surveys and programming. Earlier processes of consensus building, such as Sphere, have recognized the importance of ensuring a broad representation including national governments and civil society groups. While this may not be always possible it is nevertheless essential to consider their role in developing benchmarks and standards in their own countries, how this has influenced international practice, and subsequently the implications of new recommendations for promoting good practice locally. What do we mean by standards and benchmarks? Within the humanitarian field the term ‘standards’ is used differently depending on the agency and context. For example in the operational context of humanitarian programmes, a standard may refer to the particular level of an indicator such as the provision of 2100 kcal per person per day to food aid dependent populations, i.e. 2,100 kcal is the operational standard. But this same standard corresponds to a ‘key indicator’ in the language of Sphere, whose minimum standards have a rather different meaning. According to the 2000 edition of the handbook, a ‘minimum standard’ is qualitative in nature and specifies the minimum levels to be attained in the provision of food security, nutrition and food aid response. However, review of the 2000 standards shows that some existing minimum standards allude directly to people’s rights, as expressed in legal instruments (for example the right to food), while others are more operationally focused, 5 Young, H., A. Borrel, et al. (2004). "Public nutrition in complex emergencies." The Lancet 365(1909): 1899. 6 Young, H. (1999). "Public Nutrition in Emergencies: An Overview of Debates, Dilemmas and Decision- making." Disasters 23(4): 277-292. 2
which are much more a matter of technically applied good practice (as reflected in agency policies and guidelines)7. Standards can thus be understood as a unit of measure, or as an aspiration as for example the standards which are based directly on human rights8. Clearly there is an opportunity now for addressing some of these anomalies and reaching consensus on the use of important terms, such as standard, indicator and benchmark, in such a way that reflect operational practice and the more general use of these terms. Given the extensive consensus building that took place as part of the development of the Sphere minimum standards and indicators, any benchmarking system needs to build on this. For example, general nutrition support standard 1; “the nutritional needs of the population are met” has as one of its indicators “levels of moderate and severe malnutrition are stable at, or declining to, acceptable levels”. The latter would be more appropriate as a benchmark for monitoring the performance of the humanitarian system overall. Similarly, the standards and indicators for the correction of severe and moderate malnutrition have generally been accepted by the international nutrition community, and can form the basis of a benchmarking system. Where relevant, Sphere standards, indicators and guidance notes are referred to in this paper. Another source of confusion relates to ‘standards’ versus ‘standardized’. Standardization implies that the same template is used in every context9. Methodological approaches to nutritional surveys have been standardized over the years and there is now consensus on a wide range of technical details (see discussion below). This ‘standardization’ of humanitarian practice has directly contributed to an improvement in the overall availability of reliable data10. A range of actors have contributed to this improvement in practice through standardization, which is reflected in the development of policies, technical papers, good practice guidelines and a range of capacity development initiatives including training. Annex 1 shows examples of the range of policies, good practice guidelines and training activities by the different groups of stakeholders. 7 Young, H., A. Taylor, et al. (2004). "Linking Rights and Standards: The Process of Developing 'Rights- based' Minimum Standards on Food Security, Nutrition and Food Aid." Disasters 28(2): 142-159. 8 Lowrie, S (2005) Annex to ECHO guidelines on water and sanitation. Lowrie describes the origins of the use of the word standard in the English language as first: scientific: a unit of measure, and in the military: as a rallying symbol behind which the army fights. 9 Lowrie, S (2005). Annex to ECHO guidelines on water and sanitation 10 Young, H., A. Borrel, et al. (2004). "Public nutrition in complex emergencies." The Lancet 365(1909): 1899. 3
THE ROLE OF NUTRITION WITHIN HUMANITARIAN INFORMATION SYSTEMS The role of nutrition information within the broader humanitarian information system is generally agreed, which includes: Early Warning & other food security information systems. Acute malnutrition can be used as an indicator of food insecurity (if health and care as possible causes are also taken into account), and together with information on food production, market prices, coping strategies and population migration patterns can be an early indicator of food crisis11. The relationship between food security indicators and nutritional status varies between different population groups, however, as was found for example in an analysis of SC- UK’s nutritional surveillance data in Ethiopia.12 Nutrition surveillance. Nutrition surveillance in emergencies can be part of a famine Early Warning System (as for example in the Kenya Arid Lands Drought Monitoring Programme, or Somalia’s Food Security Assessment Unit - FSAU) or a separate initiative (for example SC-UK’s system in Ethiopia). The aim of such systems is to monitor trends in nutritional status, to detect a deteriorating nutritional situation and predict future change. The focus is therefore on trends rather than absolute levels of malnutrition. On-going surveillance also allows for the interpretation of prevalences of malnutrition compared to what is normal for that time of the year, for the population in question. Both the FSAU in Somalia and SC-UK in Ethiopia are developing baselines which document seasonal and historical trends in the prevalence of malnutrition. Initial assessment – rapid needs assessments. Rapid initial assessments may make use of existing nutritional information, for example trends in the number of malnourished children coming to MCH clinics, or recent nutritional surveys. Alternatively, such assessments may include the measurement of MUAC of children amongst the affected population13, or purposive sampling using WFH amongst some of the worst affected population14. They key role of nutritional information is that is it one of a number of indicators to use to assess the severity of crisis. One of the Sphere indicators for nutrition assessment and analysis states that the underlying causes of malnutrition need to be investigated before conducting a nutrition anthropometric survey, and thus an investigation of underlying causes should be part of an initial assessment to determine risks to nutrition. 11 Young, H. and Jaspars, S. (1995). Nutrition Matters: People, Food and Famine. IT publications; Kelly, M. (1992) Entitlements, coping mechanisms, and indicators of access to food: Wollo region, Ethiopia, 1987-88. Disasters, 16, (4): 322-338. 12 Duffield, A. and Myatt, M. (2004, March). An analysis of Save the Children UK’s and the Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Commission’s Nutritional Surveillance Programme dataset in some of the most drought prone areas of Ethiopia, 1995-2001. Draft. 13 MSF (2004, July). Nutrition Guidelines. Draft. 14 Jaspars, S and Khogali, H. (2001, May). Oxfam’s approach to nutritional surveys. SC-UK (2004). Emergency Nutrition Assessment. 4
Emergency needs assessment. These may be multi-sectoral, or sectoral in focus, e.g. nutrition/ mortality surveys, food security/livelihoods, public health/ watsan assessments, livelihoods. Nutritional/mortality surveys are most commonly carried out to estimate the severity of crisis. The specific objectives will vary according to the agency which carries them out. So for example, for MSF and ACF this may be to determine the need for selective feeding programmes, for UNHCR and WFP to also determine the need and type of general rations required, or for Oxfam or SC-UK to identify appropriate interventions to address the underlying causes of malnutrition. It is rare for surveys to estimate the overall extent of the crisis, i.e. to cover the entire emergency affected population in a region. However, there have recently been two region wide nutrition and food security assessments in Darfur, the first in September 2004, and the second in September 200515. Monitoring and evaluation. If a project has nutritional objectives, nutritional surveys are often recommended as part of the project, usually at 3 month intervals, to monitor the wider nutritional situation and progress towards objectives, in other words to monitor performance. Nutritional surveys are also carried out to assess the coverage of assistance programmes, in particular feeding programmes. Given the long causal pathways affecting nutritional status, to monitor impact, anthropometric data needs to be combined with other information in order to better understand programme impact. In practice, impact of nutrition programmes in emergencies is rarely systematically evaluated or documented in an accessible manner.16 AREAS OF CONSENSUS Amongst the international emergency nutrition community there is broad agreement on the measurement of malnutrition, nutrition survey methods, the use of a conceptual framework to assess underlying causes of malnutrition, and the information that is necessary to interpret nutritional status data. There is also agreement on the indicators for monitoring the quality and performance of selective feeding programmes. This broad agreement is reflected in the Sphere handbook and SMART guidelines, which included consultation with a wide range of actors from the nutrition community, and also the broad array of good practice guidelines (see Annex 1). Measurement of malnutrition There is general agreement about the nutritional indices and cut off points to use to measure acute malnutrition. The recommended index is weight for height, which is then as compared to an international reference (NCHS/WHO/CDC) to create the indicator of weight for height. Cut-off points for determining whether a child is malnourished are 15 Powerpoint Presentation, Emergency Food Security and Nutrition Assessment, Darfur, September 2005. Presented by WFP ODAN, November 2005, World Food Programme, Rome 16 Duffield, A., Reid, G., Walker, D., Shoham, J. (2004, December). Review of published literature for the impact and cost-effectiveness of six nutrition related emergency interventions. Emergency Nutrition Network. 5
either 2 SD below the median of the reference population, or 80% of the median of the reference population for moderate malnutrition, and 3 SD, or 70% of the median for severe malnutrition. The mid upper arm circumference is a useful anthropometric measure, especially for nutritional screening. Many guidelines recommend the collection of MUAC data along with weight for height. MUAC is useful for nutritional screening of all children in a population as it requires little in the way of equipment and training, and screening teams can cover a large number of children quickly. MUAC has been shown to have a stronger association with risk of mortality than weight-for-height/length among children between 1 and 5 years of age.17 In the past few years there has been growing pressure for MUAC to be used as an independent indicator for admission into Outpatient Therapeutic programs18 and this recommendation has recently been endorsed by an informal WHO committee.19 Nutrition/anthropometric surveys Most guidelines recommend the use of two stage 30x30 cluster surveys to for emergencies. Nutritional status, weight-for-height, is commonly measured on children between 6 and 59 months (65-110 cm), which are taken to reflect the nutritional status of the population as a whole. Some guidelines indicate when it may be appropriate to measure the nutritional status of adults.20 In addition to collection information about weight-for-height, all guidelines recommend that oedema is collected as another indicator of severe malnutrition, sex and age of the child, vaccination coverage (at least for measles), and if appropriate, the coverage of feeding programmes. Most guidelines also recommend the collection of retrospective mortality data along with nutritional status data, if accurate mortality surveillance systems do not already exist. The prevalence of malnutrition is the percentage of the sampled population below the agreed cut-off points; i.e. below –2 Z-scores for the prevalence of moderate malnutrition and below -3 Z-scores for severe malnutrition. The value of frequency distribution curves, and mean nutritional status, for the entire sampled population is highlighted in 17 - Alam, N., B. Wojtyniak, and M. M. Rahaman, "Anthropometric indicator and risk of death," American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 49: 884-888 (1989). - Briend, A., B. Wojtyniak, and M. G. M. Rowland, "Arm circumference and other Factors in children at high risk of death in rural Bangladesh," Lancet Sept. 26: 725-727 (1987). - Briend, A. and et al., "Usefulness of nutritional indices and classification in predicting death of malnourished children," BMJ 293: 373-376 (1986). - Vella, V. et al., "Anthropometry as a predictor for mortality among Ugandan children, allowing for socio- economic variables," Eur.J.Clin.Nutr. 48 (1994). 18 Myatt, M, Khara, T and Collins, S, “A review of methods to detect cases of severely malnourished children in the community for their admission into community-based therapeutic care programs” Draft background paper for the WHO UNICEF and SCN Informal Global Consultation on Community Based Management of Severe Malnutrition in children 21-23 November 2005 19 WHO, UNICEF and SCN Informal Global Consultation on Community Based Management of Severe Malnutrition in children 21-23 November 2005 20 E.g. SMART, SC-UK, Oxfam. 6
many guidelines. Changes in distribution curves, between repeat surveys, show that food insecurity and famine affects all individuals within a defined population.21 Conceptual framework for analyzing the causes of malnutrition The conceptual framework for analyzing the causes of malnutrition, as first developed by UNICEF22 has generally been adopted by international agencies to form the basis of nutrition assessments in emergencies23. The framework has also been adopted in an increasing number of national information systems24. The framework gives inadequate food intake and disease as the immediate causes of malnutrition. There are three clusters of underlying causes: inadequate household food security, inadequate maternal and child care, insufficient services and an unhealthy environment. There is a third level of basic causes which includes formal and informal institutions, political, economic and ideological superstructure, and the potential resources (See Annex 2). The framework can be used to develop a local framework on the underlying causes for the specific emergency, which may form the basis for the nutritional assessment25 . This in turn leads to the identification of appropriate interventions to address the causes of malnutrition. ACF, for example, often carries out a causal analysis (using the conceptual framework) before carrying out a anthropometric survey. In fact, in the Sphere handbook, one of the indicators for the nutrition assessment and analysis standard states that “before conducting an anthropometric survey, information on the underlying causes of malnutrition is analysed and reported, highlighting the nature and severity of the problem and those groups with greatest nutritional support needs26. The conceptual framework is also recommended to determine the relative importance of the different underlying causes in causing malnutrition and mortality, and thereby prioritise interventions, and for coordination of different sectoral responses. The interpretation of nutritional information There is consensus that it is not possible to use nutrition data alone for decision making, whether it is as part of a nutritional surveillance system, needs assessment or monitoring and evaluation. Additional information on the underlying causes of malnutrition, and the risks associated with malnutrition, is necessary. 21 Young, H. and Jaspars, S. (1995). Nutrition Matters; People, food and famine. IT publications. Golden, M. and Grellety, Y(2002). Population nutritional status during famine. 22 UNICEF (1990). Strategy for improved nutrition of children and women in developing countries. A UNICEF Policy Review. New York, UNICEF. 23 WHO (2000), The Sphere Project (2004), Save the Children (2004), Nutrition Information in Crisis Situations (NICS), UN System Standing Committee on Nutrition, WFP (2000). Food and Nutrition Handbook. Rome, World Food Programme, Oxfam GB (2001, May), MSF (2001). Presentation by Saskia van der Kam at an inter-agency workshop on Minimum Standards for Disaster Response, Oxford. July 2-3. Note that the framework has not been adopted by the SMART project, and Mike Golden has proposed an alternative conceptual framework on causes which gives both disease and malnutrition as direct causes of death, but a lesser role for disease as a cause of malnutrition. 24 ENCU led Nutrition Working Group (2002). National Nutrition Survey Guidelines. Addis Ababa, Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission. Also nutrition guidelines in Afghanistan, Sudan, Malawi 25 For example in ACF, Oxfam, SC-UK guidelines 26 Sphere (2004). Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response. P.115. 7
There is agreement that the following factors need to be considered in the interpretation of the prevalence of acute malnutrition; • The underlying causes of malnutrition; food insecurity, inadequate care, or poor health environment. • Morbidity. Infectious disease can be a cause of malnutrition, and malnutrition can increase vulnerability to disease. • Mortality. Whilst most guidelines recommend the collection of mortality data (either from secondary information or as part of the nutritional survey), as an additional indicator of severity of crisis, few guidelines explain that the relationship between malnutrition and mortality depends on the health environment or prevailing disease patterns or how the two should be analysed together27. • Seasonality. Many rural populations, in particular those who have an annual rainy season (associated with harvest, better pasture, reduction in food prices), show large fluctuations in the prevalence of malnutrition over a year Any prevalence of malnutrition must therefore be interpreted in relation to what can be expected at that time of the year. Sphere recommends that: determining whether levels of malnutrition are acceptable requires an analysis of the situation in light of the reference population, morbidity and mortality rates, seasonal fluctuations, pre-emergency levels of malnutrition, and the underlying causes of malnutrition28. Guidelines reflect that there is broad consensus on this. Putting this into practice is more difficult, as pre-emergency levels and seasonal changes in malnutrition are not always available, and as mentioned above, there is little guidance on how to analyse malnutrition and mortality data together. Performance of feeding programmes. The Sphere guidelines provide the standards and indicators for programme quality for most UN, international organisations and NGOs. They include both process indicators (e.g. number of staff required in a TFC) and outcome indicators (e.g. % of children recovered). Amongst the organisations that do not subscribe to Sphere, the MSF movement in particular, there appears to be little disagreement over the standards and indicators for assessing programme quality. Rather their reservations about Sphere concern the interpretation of indicators29 and the use of the standards30. More recently, reservations have been expressed over the applicability of some of Therapeutic Feeding Centre (TFC) indicators. In particular, those for weight gain and length of stay are considered to be inappropriate for community-based approaches to the treatment of acute 27 The only guidelines which explain how malnutrition and mortality rates should be analysed together are those of SC-UK. SC-UK used the research carried out by Helen Young as the basis for this. This research is covered in the section on “the relationship between malnutrition and mortality”. 28 Sphere (2004). Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response. P. 139. 29 Griekspoor A and Collins S, ‘Raising standards in emergency relief: how useful are Sphere minimum standards for humanitarian assistance?,’ BMJ 323 (7315): 740-742 (2001). 30 Tong J, Questionable Accountability: MSF and Sphere in 2003. Disasters, Vol. 28 Issue 2 Page 176, June 2004. 8
malnutrition.31 In addition to the Sphere indicators, WFP/UNHCR identify indicators to trigger alarm i.e. unacceptable levels (see Table 1 below). These are sometimes used as a tool for internal review and action within programmes, but do not appear to be used often by donors. Table 1: Indicators for Monitoring Feeding Programmes (WFP and UNHCR 1999) SFP Indicators Alarming TFP Indicators Alarming (%) (%) Recovery rate 10 Death rate > 15 Defaulting rate >30 Defaulter rate > 25 Weight gain
the data, which in turn depends on who carries out the survey and with what objectives. The usual practice for many NGOs a nutritional survey covers a small section of the entire affected population, such as a district or an IDP or refugee camp. A recent trend initiated by the World Food Programme is to increase survey coverage to include entire disaster affected populations. For example, recent surveys in 2004 and 2005 carried out by WFP in Darfur aimed to cover the known crisis affected (and accessible) population in the entire region32. NGO survey findings of specific geographical areas or populations cannot be extrapolated to the wider affected population. Survey results that cover a wide area or large population may mask pockets of high levels of malnutrition or mortality within the survey population. Wide variations in nutritional status within the survey population are reflected in larger confidence intervals and design effects, which suggest that there are pockets of higher levels of malnutrition within the survey population. However, the data cannot be disaggregated to provide estimates of malnutrition for sub-samples. Nutritional surveys are extremely resource intensive, and in non-camp populations can take up to a month to carry out. The value of the information gained must therefore be carefully balanced against the time and resources needed to implement surveys. Pastoralist populations and regions are particularly challenging to sample adequately, as large parts of the population live in mobile units which cannot be traced easily. In addition there may be large urban rural differences which are masked in nutrition surveys. For example in pastoral areas most population data is from the more urbanized settlements rather than rurally based mobile groups, which therefore may over-represent the poor and destitute who have had to settle in larger villages and towns. Because pastoral populations frequently live in small groups, with less than 30 children, they cannot be satisfactorily sampled using the standard 30 x 30 cluster approach. In such contexts increasing the number of clusters and decreasing the number of children per cluster or sentinel site monitoring33 could be considered. A further problem of bias may be introduced by migration which generates major demographic changes in the population, the direction of which cannot be assumed and depends on who is migrating and why. A further sampling challenge is the compatibility of the cluster survey design with food security and or livelihood assessment methods. Nutrition survey population estimates are not necessarily compatible with either the population coverage or the unit of analysis in food security surveys, which tend to focus on household economy or livelihood groups which are purposively sampled. This makes drawing direct comparisons difficult. 32 WFP (2004, October). Emergency Food Security and Nutrition Assessment in Darfur, Sudan. 33 Young, H. and S. Jaspars (1995). "Nutritional assessments, food security and famine." Disasters 19(1): 26-36. 10
Assessment of the underlying causes of malnutrition There is considerable diversity in methodological approaches for assessing underlying causes and for inclusion of other indicators of nutritional status. There is long experience of assessing food security, and more recently livelihoods approaches, yet little headway in standardizing approaches to the same degree that nutrition surveys have been standardized. This is in part because most food security assessment approaches are based on qualitative methods (key informant and focus group interviews, PRA techniques), for which tried and tested principles for ensuring good practice have been specified but not adequately incorporated into standardized procedures (e.g. triangulation, optimal ignorance, iterative analysis, team self-awareness and identity). Common quantitative indicators of food security include rainfall data, crop assessments, and market prices. However, statistical correlations of these indicators vary between and within population, and cannot make conclusions about causation34, which is why many guidelines recommend a combination of; review of secondary sources and for primary data collection a qualitative review of underlying causes, combined with quantitative estimates of acute malnutrition. Based on the region wide nutrition survey in Darfur, WFP emergency food security assessment guidelines recommend the use of a dietary diversity as a proxy measure, and of food insecurity35. This builds on research carried out by IFPRI. Analysis focuses on three main variables: - dietary diversity, defined as a number of unique foods - weekly consumption frequency for the selected foods - main two sources used by the household to acquire selected foods This is compared with a reference food consumption indicator to estimate food gaps as a benchmark for household food insecurity. However, this essentially measures current food intake rather than food insecurity and says little about the nature of food insecurity its causes and prognosis. This is particularly important in conflict related or political emergencies, where the causes of malnutrition and food insecurity are likely to be closely related to long term process of economic and political marginalization, the direct and indirect impact of the conflict and violence, and the wider policies and war strategies adopted by the combatants. The relationship between malnutrition and mortality36 The interactions between malnutrition and mortality and their underlying causes are complex, and not well understood. While the quality and analysis of nutritional data has improved greatly in the past two decades, interpretation has lagged behind. For example in every food crisis the debates persist about the severity of the situation, for example, whether it corresponds to a famine or a food crisis. At a political level, famine undoubtedly evokes a different level of response. 34 Young, H. and Jaspars, S (1995). Nutrition Matters; People, Food and Famine. IT publications. 35 WFP (2005, June). Emergency Food Security Handbook. First edition. 36 This section on the relationshiop between malnutrition and mortality is based on Young (2003) Nutritional Assessment in Emergencies: progress and remaining challenges. Unpublished paper. 11
There are three core issues in relation to malnutrition and mortality, which directly affect the interpretation and subsequent use of data for decision-making. • Increases in the rates of acute malnutrition and mortality over time are more likely to be exponential than linear. This has implications for the speed with which food insecurity progresses to a famine that kills. • Rates of malnutrition and mortality do not necessarily increase in parallel, which means that malnutrition cannot be used to predict mortality. Situations of high malnutrition but low mortality, and vice versa, are qualitatively different and thus require different responses. • Survivor bias and replacement malnutrition – at what point does excess mortality have an impact on rates of malnutrition? These points are explained more fully below. -Is the increase over time between malnutrition and mortality linear or exponential? A body of influential epidemiological reviews and studies of mortality and malnutrition in the early nineties demonstrated the strong and critically important association between malnutrition and mortality among refugee populations. These reviews suggested that the relationship between acute malnutrition prevalence and crude mortality rates were linear (ibid), and that ‘mortality rates in refugee groups could be roughly predicted - or assumed - based on their prevailing malnutrition rates.' 37 However, studies among non-emergency affected populations indicate that the relationship between mortality and malnutrition is not linear, and that mortality increases exponentially with declining nutritional status in any population, which is a result of the synergism between malnutrition and morbidity38. Levels of exposure to disease obviously change in different contexts, which accounts for varying mortality associated with a given level of acute malnutrition in different contexts. This has been termed the potentiating effect of malnutrition on mortality (ibid). Malnutrition and morbidity are themselves influenced by a range of conditions, including the underlying causes of malnutrition; food, health and care 39. It is likely that the synergism that occurs between malnutrition and morbidity also exists between these underlying conditions. This would mean the combined effects (multiplicative model) of a failure in all three groups of underlying causes of malnutrition (food, health and care) is far greater than the sum of their individual effects (additive model), which would account for the exponential increase in mortality with declining nutritional status in any population. Exposure to disease varies in different emergency contexts, which can explain in part the varying mortality associated with a given level of malnutrition. In emergency contexts where there is displacement and a concomitant deterioration in the public health and care environment, declining nutritional status is likely to be associated with an exponential 37 Nieburg, P., B. Person-Karell, et al. (1992). "Malnutrition-mortality relationships among refugees." Journal of Refugee Studies 5(3/4): 247-256. p. 251. 38 Pelletier, D. L., E. A. Frongillo, et al. (1994). "A methodology for estimating the contribution of malnutrition to child mortality in developing countries." Journal of Nutrition 124(10S): 2106S-2122S 39 These three groups are taken from the well-known UNICEF conceptual framework of underlying causes of malnutrition; food security, maternal and childcare, and public health. 12
increase in mortality. This may explain the strong relationship found between malnutrition and mortality in refugee contexts. The multiplicative effect between underlying causes described above may partly account for the profound difference in malnutrition and mortality rates found in situations of extreme food insecurity versus situations of outright famine, described by one group of famine scholars as ‘the difference between freezing water and ice’40. When food insecurity reaches the stage of destitution, this may prompt distress migration and subsequent localised public health crises wherever the displaced are forced to settle. At this point not only has acute malnutrition increased because of the food insecurity, but exposure to disease has simultaneously increased, thus ratcheting up (multiplying) the combined impact of malnutrition and morbidity on mortality. - How can malnutrition and mortality be used diagnose different types of crises? Confusion arises because malnutrition and mortality do not always increase in parallel, high levels of malnutrition are not always associated with high levels of mortality, and vice versa. For example, Figure 1 shows the results of 15 nutrition and mortality surveys completed in Ethiopia in late 2002, which shows situations of high malnutrition and low mortality and vice versa. These surveys were vetted by the Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit to ensure their rigour and reliability. Situations of elevated mortality but lower prevalences of malnutrition are relatively easy to explain, as the mortality is probably caused by factors not related to malnutrition, for example disease epidemics or “health crises”. An example of high mortality but low malnutrition is the 1991 refugee crisis in Northern Iraq, where a survey of Kurdish refugees found a prevalence of acute malnutrition among children under five years of 4.3%, and CMR was 8.9/1000/month (equivalent to 3 per 10,000 per day)41. Two thirds of the deaths occurred among children aged 5 years or younger, and half among infants younger than 1 year. Most deaths were due to diarrhoea and dehydration. Studies during periods of severe food insecurity and famine among more settled or home based populations have shown no obvious relationship between mortality rates and the prevalence of malnutrition42. This is most likely due to a more stable public health environment, with functioning health services, including immunization and stable home environment i.e. not displaced. 40 Rivers, J. e. a. (1976). "Lessons for epidemiology from the Ethiopian Famines." Ann Soc Belg Med Trop 56(4-5): 345-357. 41 Yip, R. and T. W. Sharp (1993). "Acute malnutrition and high childhood mortality related to diarrhea. Lessons from the 1991 Kurdish refugee crisis." JAMA 270(5): 587-90. 42 Young, H. and S. Jaspars (1995). "Nutrition, disease and death in times of famine." Disasters 19(2): 94 109. Young, H (forthcoming). Nutritional Assessment in Emergencies: progress and remaining challenges 13
- Survivor bias and replacement malnutrition It is a widely held belief that high mortality in a population can mask deteriorating nutritional status43. The concept of “replacement malnutrition” and the associated “survivor bias” has become a widely used explanation in subsequent nutritional survey reports and refereed academic papers to argue that high mortality is masking a deteriorating nutritional situation44. However, in an emergency context infant and child deaths are not limited to the severely or moderately malnourished; deaths occur among the malnourished and those who are not malnourished. If the data are examined, it has been found that this only holds true if under five mortality rates are extremely high (in excess of 15 or 20 per 10,000 per day). It thus seems unlikely that even under conditions of ‘Famine: Out of Control’ (U5MR>10/10000/day) there would be a significant affect on prevalence of acute malnutrition. In conclusion, understanding this relationship between malnutrition and mortality is important for understanding the exponential progression from acute food insecurity to famine, for differentiating between qualitatively different types of emergencies and famines, and for determining programme priorities. SC-UK has used these research findings in their nutrition assessment guidelines, and have developed a model showing the different possible combinations of malnutrition and mortality and the likely causes45. A fuller technical review of data sets with associated analysis of underlying causes is necessary to see how indicators of malnutrition and mortality may be used in combination to help characterize qualitatively different types of famine situation (food crises, health crises, or combinations of both (‘emergencies out of control). The further inclusion of care and protection factors into such a model would help refine this model even further. The use of thresholds and classification systems for nutritional risk Thresholds for the prevalence of malnutrition are used in decision-making frameworks for selective feeding programmes, and in systems to classify the severity of food insecurity. Early decision-making frameworks are response driven because they were developed by operational humanitarian agencies as a tool to determine the need for 43 This originates from a paper by Nieburg, Berry et al, 1986, who compared anthropometric data from two cross- sectional surveys of nutritional status among refugees in eastern Sudan. They found that nutritional status appeared serious but relatively stable between the two surveys performed over a two month interval. But during this time other data indicated high childhood mortality in the camp. The authors argued that the deceptive appearance of stability in nutritional status in the face of high mortality may be explained by ongoing nutritional deterioriation (“replacement malnutrition”) among surviving children. 44 Smith, M. C. and S. Zaidi (1993). "Malnutrition in Iraqi children following the Gulf war: results of a national survey." Nutrition Reviews 51(3): 74-78. Salama, P., F. Assefa, et al. (2001). "Malnutrition, measles, mortality, and the humanitarian response during a famine in Ethiopia." American Medical Association 286(5): 563-571. Woodruff, B. A., M. Reynolds, et al. (2002). Summary of Nutrition and Health Survey Badghis Province, Afghanistan. February – March 2002 45 SC-UK (2004). Emergency Nutrition Assessment. Guidelines for Field Workers. p. 193. 14
selective feeding programmes46. Since then they were adopted by other INGOs47, and then incorporated within the UN guidelines48. Only now twenty years on, are there plans to undertake proper evaluative research into the efficacy of supplementary feeding programmes in emergencies and the use of such frameworks49. The framework in the WHO guidelines is given in Table 2. Table 2: Decision making framework for the implementation of selective feeding programmes (WHO 2000) Finding Action required Food availability at household level Unsatisfactory situation: 1/10,000/day • Epidemic of measles or whooping cough Decision making frameworks for selective feeding include a range of aggravating factors. The range of aggravating factors varies between agencies, and includes: general ration below minimum energy requirements, a crude mortality rate above 1/10,000/day, epidemic of measles or whooping cough50 , MSF adds severe cold and inadequate shelter 46 Lusty, T. and P. Diskett (1984). OXFAM's Practical Guide to Selective Feeding Programmes. Oxfam Practical Guide No 1. Oxford, Oxfam Health Unit, Oxfam. 47 MSF (1995). Nutrition Guidelines. Paris, France, Medecins Sans Frontieres. 48 WHO (2000). The Management of Nutrition in Major Emergencies. Geneva, World Health Organization, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, World Food Programme. 49 ENN/SC-UK. 2004. Proposal for a multi-agency review of the impact of SFPs 50 WHO (2002). The management of nutrition in major emergencies. 15
to the list, UNHCR/WFP add a high prevalence of respiratory and diarrhoeal disease, and USAID add ‘Severe public health hazards exist’51. There is discrepancy between guidelines on the responses required for each level of malnutrition. In the WHO guideline above and the UNHCR/WFP guidelines for selective feeding programmes in emergency situations (1999), the highest level of concern (a ‘serious’ situation) is >15% and this should trigger a blanket distribution to vulnerable groups. By contrast, MSF guidelines set an additional level requiring blanket supplementary feeding as well as targeted SFP and TFC where malnutrition prevalence is >20%.52 There are several difficulties with using a decision-making framework like the one shown in Table 2: 1. The framework re-enforces the ‘food first’ culture of emergency response. The most common humanitarian response strategy has been free food relief even though malnutrition can have multiple causes. The food first culture has been reinforced by early epidemiological studies of malnutrition in refugee situations, where it was listed first among the principal causes of refugee mortality. It also is driven in part by donor oriented food aid policies and systems53. This food based approach remains the dominant humanitarian response paradigm despite efforts to broaden the analysis and response to take account of wider food security, public health and livelihood issues. Food is necessary but on its own insufficient to support nutrition, and prevent malnutrition. 2. The use of two or three aggravating factors to interpret the prevalence of malnutrition is not consistent with the use of the conceptual framework of underlying causes of malnutrition, which in addition to disease and food intake, gives underlying and basic causes which contribute to malnutrition. Maternal and child care as an underlying cause of malnutrition is not covered at all by such decision making frameworks. Factors affecting care on a population level might be numbers of unaccompanied children, prevalence of HIV/AIDS, changes in infant feeding practices, violence against women etc. 3. There are large regional differences in levels of acute malnutrition. Large differences in the pre-disaster prevalence of malnutrition exist between regions, countries, within countries. For example, at the time when thresholds were being developed in the mid nineties the national rate of acute malnutrition in Bangladesh was 17.8%54, thus the entire country of more than 140 million would have been classified as ‘critical’ according to the WHO (2002) classification. 4. Many populations experience normal seasonal changes in nutritional status. Normal seasonal changes can see a drop in the prevalence of malnutrition as large as 20% within the space of a three month period.55 51 USAID 2000. Field Operations Guide for disaster assessment and response. USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Response, Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance. Version 3. 52 Boelaert M. et al. 1995. Nutrition Guidelines. 53 Barrett, C. B. and D. G. Maxwell (2005). Food Aid After Fifty Years. Recasting its role. London and New York, Routledge. 54 WHO (1997). WHO Global Database on Child Growth and Malnutrition. Geneva, Programme of Nutrition, Family and Reproductive Health WHO/ NUT/ 97.4. 55 Young, H. and Jaspars, S. Nutrition Matters; People, Food and Famine. IT publications. Duffield, A. and Myatt, M. (2004, March). An analysis of Save the Children UK’s and the Disaster Preparedness and 16
5. The relationship between malnutrition and mortality is complex, especially outside of the context of refugee camps, the severity of the complex emergency cannot be judged by such factors alone, particularly in conflict situations where protection is a critical factor. MSF has now adapted the framework to take account of the underlying causes of malnutrition.56 Others use a similar framework to distinguish different phases or levels of food insecurity, or have rejected the use of the framework57 . The framework has not been adopted by Sphere or SMART. MSF’s new framework gives four stages of food insecurity (food insecurity, food crisis, serious food crisis, and famine). For each of these phases there are threshold for levels of malnutrition, mortality, and general information on food availability and access. Health, food security and nutritional objectives are given for responses, but the focus is on nutritional interventions. Other presentations of the framework also include caring behaviours as indicators for the different stages of food insecurity58. Darcy and Hoffman have proposed a classification of levels and types of food insecurity, to determine whether a population is suffering chronic food insecurity, acute food crisis, extended food crisis, or famine. The framework gives a range of responses.59 The FSAU in Somalia has adopted a similar five phase food security classification, which uses mortality, access to food, coping strategies, livelihood assets, probability of hazards, and civil security as indicators in addition to the prevalence of acute malnutrition60. The thresholds of malnutrition prevalence and mortality rates for famine are generally much higher than those indicating a “serious situation” in previous frameworks, and ranges from >25% for acute malnutrition and >2/10,000/day CMR in Darcy and Hoffman’s paper to 40-50% acute malnutrition and CMR >5/10,000/day in the MSF framework. The classifications of phases or levels of food insecurity are different for each system. The differences between the classification systems reflect the serious definitional issues on what constitutes a famine, food crisis, food insecurity, which were discussed above. None of the classification systems includes a health crisis, although there are national efforts to integrate public health concerns into national early warning system. The UN has a global nutrition information system which classifies emergencies according to the severity of nutritional risk. The Nutrition Information in Crisis Situations information system was started in 1993 as the Refugee Nutrition Information System, and is part of the UN Standing Committee on Nutrition, which is the focal point for harmonizing nutrition policies in the UN system. The NICS approach classifies Prevention Commission’s Nutritional Surveillance Programme dataset in some of the most drought prone areas of Ethiopia, 1995-2001. Draft. 56 MSF (2004) Nutrition Guidelines. Draft. 57 SC-UK (2004) Emergency Nutrition Assessment. Guideline for field workers. 58 MSF (2001). Presentation by Saskia van der Kam at an inter-agency workshop on Minimum Standards for Disaster Response, Oxford. July 2-3. 59 Darcy,J and Hoffman, C-A. (2003, September). According to need? Needs assessment and decision making in the humanitarian sector. HPG report 15. ODI. 60 FSAU (2005, September). 2005 post Gu analysis. 17
emergency situations into five categories relating to prevalence of malnutrition and/ or levels of nutritional risk. Situations may be classified in the absence of prevalence, but when sufficient information on underlying causes is available to determine risk. The NICS approach is unique because it is the only system which considers all underlying causes of malnutrition, key constraints in the delivery of humanitarian assistance, as well as the prevalence of malnutrition. It is also the only system that allows for the possibility that malnutrition and mortality rates may not rise in parallel. NICS uses 5-8% malnutrition as a worrying nutritional situation and 10% as a serious situation. However, these levels are used with caution recognizing the importance of contextual and trend analysis. Clearly, the better the analysis and interpretation of the prevalence of malnutrition in survey reports, the easier it is to assign a nutritional risk category. See annex 3 for an example of the table that NICS uses to classify emergencies according to nutritional risk. Taking account of seasonal or intra-regional differences in the prevalence of malnutrition is often difficult, as pre-emergency surveys are not always available or comparable to post emergency surveys. SC-UK in Ethiopia has gone furthest in taking account of seasonal and inter-district differences in prevalences of malnutrition. They have established thresholds for malnutrition prevalences for different emergency stages by season and by district. For each stage, a checklist is given for additional information needed to determine response61. With interpretation based on comparison with what is “normal”, there is of course a question of when does normal become unacceptable. There are an increasing number of populations, in particular in the Horn of Africa, which suffer high prevalences of malnutrition on a continuous or regular basis. INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES The use of nutritional data is constrained not only by the technical challenges but also by the institutional challenges presented by international humanitarian systems. In the context of acute malnutrition in emergencies, the term institution refers to the social, cultural and political structures that govern the collection, analysis, interpretation, dissemination and use of nutritional data. Institutions have their own self-supporting logic, laws, principles and technical practices. In nutrition in emergencies this is reflected by a growing literature, a range of national and UN policies and plethora of good practice guidelines, which are adhered to by a range of stakeholders and advocates. Some of the principal institutional challenges to gathering and using nutritional data effectively are considered below. 61 Duffield, A. and Myatt, M. (2004, March). An analysis of Save the Children UK’s and the Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Commission’s Nutritional Surveillance Programme dataset in some of the most drought prone areas of Ethiopia, 1995-2001. Draft. 18
Who are the stakeholders and how does the system work? The range of actors with an interest in acute malnutrition in emergencies, includes a large number of UN agencies (WHO, UNICEF, WFP, UNHCR, FAO), professional and technical networks (SCN, Emergency Nutrition Network, Sphere project consultative groups, NutritionWorks), donor led technical groups (SMART, CDC), national governments, NGOs (e.g. ACF, SC-UK, Oxfam, MSF, Red Cross Movement) (See Annex 1). Even within a single agency, there may be different units or teams working on nutrition related issues, for example in WFP, there is a nutrition team in the policy unit, but the VAM (vulnerability assessment and mapping) and ODAN (emergency needs assessment) teams work also links with nutrition. If there is to be consensus around the use of acute malnutrition as one of a set of benchmarks, a first step must be to consider what the interests are of these different stakeholders to analyse and respond to the humanitarian crises that involves acute malnutrition? What are their respective roles in terms of determining whether or not a survey is necessary, the processes of data collection & analysis, data coordination & dissemination and the actual use of information for decision-making about advocacy strategies, policy making and intervention strategies and programmes. Furthermore, in some of the most acute crises (for example those associated with displacement or acute shocks such as an earthquake or floods), it is not necessary to carry out a nutritional survey to know that significant nutritional risks exist. Response should start in the absence of nutritional surveys. Nutritional surveys may be useful at a later stage to assess the severity of the crisis, and to monitor the performance of humanitarian response. In other situations, it will not be possible to carry out surveys, due to insecurity or lack of access. In slow onset emergencies, ideally humanitarian responses should start early, to protect livelihoods, rather than wait until malnutrition and mortality levels are unacceptable. Judging the reliability of survey results can be problematic, in particular where the use of nutritional data is highly politicized and linked with response by the key stakeholders. In countries such as Ethiopia and Sudan, populations and local institutions are long familiar with using regular nutritional surveys to assess the need for a humanitarian response. In addition to some of the technical difficulties associated with surveying dispersed rural or mobile populations, survey data may be purposefully manipulated to create high malnutrition levels. Knowing that malnutrition levels are higher in settled destitute populations, there may be an incentive to bias the survey in favour of these groups. Recycling of malnourished children amongst households being surveyed is another example of manipulation. This has been reported in Ethiopia and North Korea. In situations of conflict, malnutrition may be deliberately created amongst displaced populations to attract resources which are then diverted by the warring partly in control of the area. Examples of this have been noted in South Sudan and Somalia.62 The wider use 62 Scott-Villiers, A., Scott-Villiers, P., Dodge, C. Repatriation of 150,000 Sudanese refugees from Ethiopia. The manipulation of civilians in a situation of conflict. Disasters 17 (3). 2002. 19
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