ABB MINIMIZING BULK POWER COSTS STUDY IN THE ENTERGY - Southwest Power Pool

 
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ABB

MINIMIZING BULK POWER COSTS STUDY IN THE ENTERGY
                              SYSTEM
             – ABB INPUT ASSUMPTIONS

        August 31, 2011

        SUBMITTED TO:

        Southwest Power Pool

        SUBMITTED BY:
        Lan Trinh
        Maria Moore

        REVIEWED BY:

        ABB Consulting
        940 Main Campus Drive, Suite 300
        Raleigh, North Carolina 27606-5202 USA
        Telephone:       (919) 856-3922
        Fax:             (919) 807-5060
Table of Contents
                                                                                                                                                                                     Page

1     PRODUCTION COST MODELING ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................ 2
    1.1.                    INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................... 2
    1.2.                    DATA SOURCES .............................................................................................................................................. 3
    1.3.                    TRANSMISSION ............................................................................................................................................... 3
    1.4.                    RMR GUIDELINE ............................................................................................................................................ 3
    1.5.                    LOAD INPUTS .................................................................................................................................................. 4
    1.6.                    THERMAL GENERATION UNITS ....................................................................................................................... 4
    1.7.                    HYDRO UNITS ................................................................................................................................................. 5
    1.8.                    RENEWABLE RESOURCES................................................................................................................................ 5
    1.9.                    QUALIFIED FACILITIES .................................................................................................................................... 6
    1.10.                   CAPACITY ADDITIONS AND RETIREMENTS ..................................................................................................... 6
    1.11.                   OPERATING RESERVE REQUIREMENT ............................................................................................................. 6
    1.12.                   EMISSION MODEL ........................................................................................................................................... 8
    1.13.                   WHEELING CHARGE ....................................................................................................................................... 8
    1.14.                   FUEL PRICES ................................................................................................................................................... 8
2     TRANSMISSION MODELING ASSUMPTIONS................................................................................................... 12
    2.1.                    INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 12
    2.2.                    GENERATION AND LOAD LEVELS IN THE ENTERGY FOOTPRINT.................................................................... 12
    2.3.                    POWER FLOW ANALYSIS CRITERIA............................................................................................................... 14
3     APPENDIXES ............................................................................................................................................................. 15

                                                                                                                                                                    ABB
1      Production Cost Modeling Assumptions

1.1. Introduction

ABB’s GridView Market Simulation Software was used for this analysis. The core of GridView is a
transmission constrained economic dispatch algorithm as shown in Figure 1.1. GridView mimics the
operation of an electric market by dispatching generating units based on their bid prices while taking into
account the flow limits on transmission lines and interfaces under normal, as well as contingency
conditions. The outputs of GridView are information such as hourly unit dispatch, Locational Marginal
Prices (LMPs) at buses, flow on lines and congestion cost of limiting lines.

                                       Generator M odel:               Hourly
                                       Capacity, outage rate,          Location
                                       Operating Costs & Operating     Dependent
                                       Constraints                     Load

                    Detailed
                    Transm ission                     Sim ulation Engine:
                    M odel
                                                     Security Constrained
                                                       Unit Com m itm ent             Market
                    Interface
                                                     & Economic Dispatch              Scenarios
                    Transfer Lim its
                                                     Optim al Power Flow
                    Security
                    Constraints

                                                                     Transm ission   Power S ystem
                      LM P Price               Generator             Congestion &    Reliability
                      Forecast                 Perform ance          Utilizations    Indices

                                  Figure 1.1: GridView’s simplified block diagram

GridView determines the least-cost security constrained dispatch of generating units to satisfy a given
demand, on the assumption that the units are dispatched according to their variable costs. The major
advantage of GridView is its ability to simulate the hourly operation of generating units and transmission
systems (e.g. transformers, lines, phase shifters, busses) in significant detail. For example, it accurately
represents capacity constraints, minimum up time limitations, and thermal constraints on the transfer
capability of transmission lines, line and unit contingencies and scheduling limitations of hydro-plants. As
such, GridView provides a highly accurate, detailed simulation of the hourly operation of the individual
generating units and transmission system that constitute the wholesale market.

Among the key outputs of the GridView model is a set of Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs), computed
for each bus in each hour, and the hourly dispatch of all generators in each relevant geographic market.

                                                                                                     ABB
The model’s geographic footprint encompasses the U.S. portion of the Eastern Interconnection with a
focus on the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and Entergy footprints and surrounding regions.

The two years or GridView simulation are 2013 (the analysis start year) and 2022 (the analysis end year).
Results for years not simulated are interpolated.

1.2.   Data Sources

The database represents Entergy’s power system with detailed models of generators, loads and
transmission network in entire Entergy footprint, SPP RTO and nearby areas (TVA, SOCO, and
AECI).The GridView database was created from publicly available sources, like EPA , EIA , GADS
(Generator Availability Data System), FERC Forms, SPP, and Entergy supplied data. The database was
reviewed and sanity-checked by SPP and Entergy

All financial assumptions specified in this document are expressed in real 2009 US dollars, unless
otherwise noted

1.3.   Transmission

The transmission system was modeled in detail, exactly as in the PSS/E power flow cases with explicit
representation of all transmission facilities, including lines, transformers, phase shifters and DC ties.

SPP provided two power flow cases representing summer peak load conditions for study years 2013 and
2022. Additional details on these cases are given in Section 2 of this report.

For the purposes of production cost simulation, flowgates/ interfaces with their limits and selected N-1
contingencies were modeled. Furthermore, thermal limits of all transmission lines of 115kV and above
within the Entergy footprint and 345kV and above for the rest of the Tier 1 system, and lines related to
RMR guidelines are enforced. TRM of 3% is enforced in the GridView model.

Powerflow cases, flowgates/interfaces, and contingency definitions were provided by SPP. Entergy
provided RMR operating guidelines were also modeled.

1.4.   RMR Guideline

All RMR operating guidelines were modeled with a nomogram feature in GridView. This feature allows
for the modeling of conditional limits or generator statuses that change dynamically during the simulation
based on generator commitment status, area load level, or line status, etc. This feature can be used to
model any particular RMR requirement.

All RMR guideline were provided by Entergy. ABB updated the GridView model to enforce these
Reliability Must Run (RMR) rules at appropriate area or zone load levels. The RMR rules account for
both fixed (non-conforming) and variable (conforming) loads.

                                                                                              ABB
1.5.   Load Inputs

The loads were represented with chronological 8760 hour curves for each area. For non SPP areas (AECI,
SOCO and TVA) load shapes were from 2006 historical load curves, published in FERC Form 714. Their
2013 and 2022 load forecasts (peak and annual energy) were also collected from FERC Form 714. For
SPP areas, load curves were provided by SPP and their load forecasts for 2013 were from 2010 SPP EIA-
411 report. For year 2022 their load forecast was extrapolated based on 2010-2019 forecast.

Entergy provided load curves and load forecasts for seven areas:

Entergy APL
Entergy Gulf States
Entergy LPL North
Entergy LPL South
Entergy MPL
Entergy NOPSI
Entergy Texas

Non-conforming loads in Entergy load serving areas were identified based on PSSE load ID: AX, CO and
IN. They were modeled as fixed load with a flat load curve throughout the year. Since Entergy load
forecast includes those non-conforming loads, the annual peak and energy of Entergy’s conforming loads
were calculated by subtracting non-conforming fixed load and annual energy from Entergy’s area load
forecast.

1.6. Thermal Generation Units

Thermal units in GridView are represented in detail, including: unit’s type, fuel type, heat rate blocks,
summer and winter capacities, variable O&M, start-up fuel usage, minimum up and down time, forced
outage, maintenance schedule, emission rate, ramping rate, quick-start and spinning reserve capabilities.

Generation data was collected from various sources, including EPA and EIA public sources. The
scheduled maintenance and forced outage rate with durations were estimated based on unit size and type
as reported by the GADS (Generator Availability Data System) database. Where unit-specific data was
not available, typical values were based on unit type, fuel, and size. Maintenance schedules of many
Entergy’s units were provided by Entergy.

To model generation units’ random forced outage, Monte-Carlo simulation with one intellidraw feature
was used for simulation. GridView’s Monte Carlo simulates the random outages of generating units based
on forced outage rate and duration from GADS table.

Modeled IPP units in Entergy footprint are listed in table 1.2 below

                                                                                             ABB
Table 1.2: IPPs in Entergy and Cleco regions

Entergy
      Carville Cogeneration Energy
      Cottonwood CC 1 & 2 (Intergen)
      Duke-Hinds
      Duke Hot Springs 1
      Hot springs (Tractabel)
      Robert Ritchie 2
      Union Power – Panda Energy
      Cogentrix Batesville (MS) (a)
      DOW AEP

Cleco
        Cleco Evangeline

The heat rates of IPP units, listed below, were adjusted to be the same as Perryville CCGT’s with 10%
adder in 2022 and 4% adder in 2013. Variable O&M of those units were also matched to Perryville
CCGT’s.

        Cottonwood CC 1 & 2 (Intergen)
        Carville
        Duke-Hinds
        Duke Hot Springs 1
        Hot springs (Tractabel)
        Union Power – Panda Energy
        LS Power (1LSPWRU)
        DOW AEP (IDOWAEP)
        Frontier 1-2 (10% adder in 2022 only)

1.7.Hydro Units

In GridView model, hydro generators are characterized by Minimum Capacity, Maximum Capacity,
monthly energy allocation, VO&M, all of which can vary monthly and annually. The minimum capacity
is treated as run of river generation. The difference between minimum and maximum capacities is treated
as dispatchable capacity. The dispatchable capacity is dispatched for peak shaving with the constraint that
the total accumulative generation in a month will not exceed the monthly energy allocation. The hydro
units’ monthly energy was provided by Entergy.

1.8.Renewable Resources

The wind units were modeled as hourly resources with given hourly generation curve and with the
capability of curtailment. 4 GW of wind capacity were added to the SPP region in year 2013 and 8 GW in
2022. Hourly wind production curves for the units in the SPP region were provided by SPP.

                                                                                             ABB
GridView hourly resource is a generator with given hourly production curve for unit commitment cycle
and hourly production curve for economic dispatch cycle. It is must take energy with capability of
curtailment and the cost is zero.

1.9.Qualified Facilities

QF Puts were modeled as non-firm energy purchases: units are committed based on “no QF put”, but
dispatched with historical put value. GridView hourly resource model was used with zero curve for
commitment and hourly historical production curve for dispatch. Entergy provided hourly production
curve for all QF Put units. Besides producing energy for sale, QF units also produce energy for their own
self-serve loads. This part of QF unit production was modeled as an hourly resource with fixed/flat
production curves.

Some of the QF Puts may have curtailment or energy spillage in the reference case. If in the change case
or solution case, the amount of energy spillage is significantly less, it will cause the total annual energy
output of that QF units to be higher than in the reference case. In order to avoid this issue, the original
hourly production curve of the affected QF unit will be replaced with an adjusted hourly production
curve. The new curve is created by exporting the hourly output energy production of the QF unit from the
change case and scaling down every hour with the same amount of MWs so the annual energy of the
adjusted curve will equal the reference case unit output. The adjusted hourly production curve will be
used in the change case only.

1.10.   Capacity Additions and Retirements

In the GridView database, 4 GW of wind generation capacity were modeled in SPP for year 2013,
increasing to a total of 8 GW by 2022.

In addition to known retirement units, several units were made unavailable based on information provided
by SPP/Entergy. Plum Point 2 commissioning date is Jan. 01 2022. Duke Hot Spring 2 and Washington
Parish CC were not included since they were not completed. Acadia Generation Block 2 was moved to
the Entergy control area.

1.11.   Operating Reserve Requirement

Entergy footprint and Tier 1 regions were enforced with 5% reserve margin each. The definition for
Entergy footprint and Tier1 regions is in table 1.3 below. In addition, several of Entergy’s areas were
enforced with special operating reserve requirements. These requirements are typically based on the loss
of the largest single generator, or the largest single generator capacity plus half the second largest
generator capacity, or a percentage of peak demand, depending on the area.

                                                                                              ABB
Table 1.1 Region definition

Region Name         Area Name              Name
Entergy Footprint   BCA                    Batesville
Entergy Footprint   BUBA                   Benton Utilities Balancing Authority
Entergy Footprint   CELE                   Central Louisiana Electric Company
Entergy Footprint   CONWAY                 Conway
Entergy Footprint   DENL                   City of North Little Rock
Entergy Footprint   DERS                   City of Ruston
Entergy Footprint   Entergy APL            Entergy APL
Entergy Footprint   Entergy Gulf States    Entergy Gulf States
Entergy Footprint   Entergy LPL North      Entergy LPL North
Entergy Footprint   Entergy LPL South      Entergy LPL South
Entergy Footprint   Entergy MPL            Entergy MPL
Entergy Footprint   Entergy NOPSI          Entergy NOPSI
Entergy Footprint   Entergy Texas          Entergy Texas
Entergy Footprint   LAFA                   Lafayette Utilities
Entergy Footprint   LAGN                   Louisiana Generating Company
Entergy Footprint   LEPA                   Louisiana Energy and Power Authority
Entergy Footprint   PUPP                   Panda Union Power Partners
Entergy Footprint   WESTMEMP               West Memphis
Tier 1              AECI                   Associated Electric Cooperative Inc.
Tier 1              AEPW                   American Electric Power
Tier 1              AMMO                   Ameren Missouri
Tier 1              EMDE                   Empire District Electric Company
Tier 1              GRDA                   Grand River Dam Authority
Tier 1              INDN                   City of Independence
Tier 1              KACP                   Kansas City Power and Light Company
Tier 1              KACY                   Board of Public Utilities
Tier 1              MIDW                   Midwest Energy
Tier 1              MIPU                   Missouri Public Service Company
Tier 1              MKEC                   Mid Kansas Electric Cooperative
Tier 1              OKGE                   Oklahoma Gas and Electric Company
Tier 1              OMLP                   Osceola Municipal Light & Power
Tier 1              OMPA                   Oklahoma Municipal Power Authority
Tier 1              SMEPA                  South Mississippi Electric Power Association
Tier 1              SOCO                   Southern Company
Tier 1              SPRM                   City Utilities of Springfield
Tier 1              SPS                    Southwestern Public Service
Tier 1              SUNC                   Sunflower Electric Cooperative
Tier 1              SWPA                   Southwestern Power Administration
Tier 1              TVA                    Tennessee Valley Authority
Tier 1              WERE                   Westar
Tier 1              WFEC                   Western Farmers Electric Cooperative
Tier 1              OPPD                   Omaha Public Power District
Tier 1              NPPD                   Nebraska Public Power District

                                                                                     ABB
1.12.   Emission Model

Unit emission rates for NOX, SO2, and CO2, collected from EPA source, were added to the GridView
database.

Emission allowance price forecast, used in this database, is listed in Table 1.4.

                                 Table 1.4: Allowance Price ($ / short ton)

                                             CO2        NOX          SO2
                                  2013        0         1,347        323
                                  2022        0         1,770        351

1.13.   Wheeling Charge

Wheeling charges are “per MWh” charges for moving energy from one area to another in an electric
system. In the GridView model, it is modeled as tariff for particular interfaces.

Wheeling charges are listed in the Table 1.5 below:

                                         Table 1.5: Wheeling Charge

 Market                                                                        Wheeling Charge ($/MWh)
          From                    To
Assumptio                                                                     Commitment Dispatch
            Cleco                   SPP, Entergy, LEPA and LAFA                   10             6
            Cleco                   LaGen                                         10             3
            Entergy                 LaGen                                         10             3
            Entergy                 Cleco, SPP, AECI, LEPA, LAFA, SMEPA           10             6
            Entergy                 All Other                                    1000            8
Entergy is SPP                      Cleco, Entergy, AECI, LEPA, LAFA, LaGen       10             5
not in SPP SPP                      All Other                                    1000            5
 Market     LEPA                    Entergy and Cleco                             10             6
            LAFA                    Entergy and Cleco                             10             6
            LaGen                   Entergy and Cleco                             10             3
            LaGen                   SOCO                                         1000            8
            AECI and SMEPA          SPP and Entergy                               10             6
            AECI and SMEPA          All Other                                    1000            8

1.14.   Fuel Prices

The fuel prices (in $/MMBTU) for the study years were provided by SPP. These projected fuel prices are
in year 2009 real dollars for the year 2013 and 2022 as shown in Tables 1.6 to 1.8.

                             Table 16: Gas Price Forecast Summary ($/MMBtu)

                                                                                              ABB
Louisiana         Mississippi        Arkansas          Texas_W
Year    Month
                No LDC With LDC   No LDC With LDC    No LDC With LDC   No LDC With LDC
         1      $ 6.21 $ 6.30     $ 6.21 $ 6.39      $ 6.58 $ 6.81     $ 5.90 $ 5.92
         2      $ 6.17 $ 6.25     $ 6.16 $ 6.34      $ 6.54 $ 6.77     $ 5.85 $ 5.88
         3      $ 5.96 $ 6.05     $ 5.96 $ 6.14      $ 6.32 $ 6.55     $ 5.65 $ 5.68
         4      $ 5.50 $ 5.59     $ 5.50 $ 5.68      $ 5.83 $ 6.06     $ 5.26 $ 5.29
         5      $ 5.46 $ 5.54     $ 5.46 $ 5.64      $ 5.79 $ 6.02     $ 5.22 $ 5.24
 2013

         6      $ 5.49 $ 5.58     $ 5.49 $ 5.67      $ 5.82 $ 6.05     $ 5.25 $ 5.28
         7      $ 5.55 $ 5.63     $ 5.55 $ 5.72      $ 5.88 $ 6.11     $ 5.31 $ 5.34
         8      $ 5.59 $ 5.68     $ 5.59 $ 5.77      $ 5.93 $ 6.16     $ 5.35 $ 5.38
         9      $ 5.62 $ 5.70     $ 5.61 $ 5.79      $ 5.95 $ 6.18     $ 5.37 $ 5.40
         10     $ 5.70 $ 5.79     $ 5.70 $ 5.88      $ 6.05 $ 6.27     $ 5.46 $ 5.49
         11     $ 5.92 $ 6.01     $ 5.92 $ 6.09      $ 6.28 $ 6.50     $ 5.62 $ 5.65
         12     $ 6.16 $ 6.25     $ 6.16 $ 6.34      $ 6.53 $ 6.76     $ 5.86 $ 5.89
         1      $ 7.50 $ 7.57     $ 7.49 $ 7.64      $ 7.95 $ 8.14     $ 7.11 $ 7.13
         2      $ 7.45 $ 7.52     $ 7.45 $ 7.60      $ 7.90 $ 8.09     $ 7.07 $ 7.09
         3      $ 7.26 $ 7.34     $ 7.26 $ 7.41      $ 7.70 $ 7.89     $ 6.88 $ 6.90
          4     $ 6.71 $ 6.78     $ 6.70 $ 6.85      $ 7.11 $ 7.30     $ 6.41 $ 6.44
          5     $ 6.66 $ 6.73     $ 6.65 $ 6.80      $ 7.06 $ 7.26     $ 6.37 $ 6.39
 2022

          6     $ 6.72 $ 6.79     $ 6.71 $ 6.86      $ 7.13 $ 7.32     $ 6.43 $ 6.45
          7     $ 6.79 $ 6.86     $ 6.78 $ 6.93      $ 7.20 $ 7.39     $ 6.49 $ 6.52
          8     $ 6.84 $ 6.91     $ 6.83 $ 6.98      $ 7.25 $ 7.44     $ 6.54 $ 6.56
          9     $ 6.85 $ 6.92     $ 6.84 $ 6.99      $ 7.26 $ 7.45     $ 6.55 $ 6.58
         10     $ 6.91 $ 6.98     $ 6.91 $ 7.05      $ 7.33 $ 7.52     $ 6.62 $ 6.64
         11     $ 7.15 $ 7.22     $ 7.14 $ 7.29      $ 7.58 $ 7.77     $ 6.78 $ 6.80
         12     $ 7.40 $ 7.47     $ 7.40 $ 7.55      $ 7.85 $ 8.04     $ 7.04 $ 7.06

                                                                             ABB
Table 1.7: Oil Price Forecast Summary ($/MMBtu)

                   Louisiana          Mississippi          Arkansas           Texas_W
Year    Month
                FO2        FO6      FO2        FO6      FO2       FO6      FO2      FO6
          1     $18.95     $10.41   $19.23      $7.70   $18.95    $10.41   $18.95   $10.41
          2     $18.95     $10.42   $19.23      $7.70   $18.95    $10.42   $18.95   $10.42
          3     $18.11     $10.42   $18.38      $7.71   $18.11    $10.42   $18.11   $10.42
          4     $18.01     $10.43   $18.28      $7.71   $18.01    $10.43   $18.01   $10.43
          5     $17.19     $10.43   $17.45      $7.72   $17.19    $10.43   $17.19   $10.43
 2013

          6     $16.99     $10.44   $17.24      $7.72   $16.99    $10.44   $16.99   $10.44
          7     $17.03     $10.44   $17.28      $7.72   $17.03    $10.44   $17.03   $10.44
          8     $17.33     $10.45   $17.59      $7.73   $17.33    $10.45   $17.33   $10.45
          9     $17.81     $10.45   $18.08      $7.73   $17.81    $10.45   $17.81   $10.45
         10     $18.03     $10.46   $18.30      $7.73   $18.03    $10.46   $18.03   $10.46
         11     $18.23     $10.46   $18.50      $7.74   $18.23    $10.46   $18.23   $10.46
         12     $18.51     $10.47   $18.79      $7.74   $18.51    $10.47   $18.51   $10.47
          1     $24.81     $13.75   $25.18     $10.17   $24.81    $13.75   $24.81   $13.75
          2     $24.80     $13.76   $25.18     $10.17   $24.80    $13.76   $24.80   $13.76
          3     $23.72     $13.76   $24.08     $10.18   $23.72    $13.76   $23.72   $13.76
          4     $23.59     $13.77   $23.95     $10.18   $23.59    $13.77   $23.59   $13.77
          5     $22.53     $13.77   $22.87     $10.19   $22.53    $13.77   $22.53   $13.77
 2022

          6     $22.27     $13.78   $22.60     $10.19   $22.27    $13.78   $22.27   $13.78
          7     $22.32     $13.79   $22.65     $10.20   $22.32    $13.79   $22.32   $13.79
          8     $22.70     $13.79   $23.04     $10.20   $22.70    $13.79   $22.70   $13.79
          9     $23.33     $13.80   $23.68     $10.21   $23.33    $13.80   $23.33   $13.80
         10     $23.61     $13.81   $23.97     $10.21   $23.61    $13.81   $23.61   $13.81
         11     $23.86     $13.81   $24.22     $10.21   $23.86    $13.81   $23.86   $13.81
         12     $24.23     $13.82   $24.59     $10.22   $24.23    $13.82   $24.23   $13.82

                                                                                 ABB
Table 1.8: Coal Price Forecast Summary ($/MMBtu)

Complex                   Capacity   State   2013     2022
AES Shady Point 1 & 2          320    OK     1.85     1.84
Dolet Hills                    650    LA       2      2.09
Flint Creek                    528    AR     2.18     2.14
Gentleman 1 & 2              1,295    NE     1.26     1.26
GRDA 1                         490    OK     2.27     2.24
GRDA 2                         520    OK     2.27     2.24
Harrington 1 - 3             1,021    TX     2.19     2.19
Hawthorn 5                     545    MO      1.7     1.69
Holcomb                        362    KS     1.94     1.91
Hugo                           440    OK     2.04     2.01
Iatan 1 & 2                  1,556    MO     1.94     1.94
Independence 1 & 2           1,678    AR     2.67     2.67
Jeffrey EC 1 - 3             2,164    KS     1.81     1.79
Lacygne 2                      682    KS     1.71     1.67
Lawrence EC 5                  373    KS     2.06     2.05
Montrose 1 - 3                 505    MO     1.69     1.69
Muskogee 4 - 6               1,496    OK     2.25     2.25
Nearman Creek                  200    KS     1.98     1.94
Nebraska City 1 & 2          1,316    NE     1.49     1.45
North Omaha 2 - 5              478    NE     1.45     1.42
Pirkey                         675    TX       2      2.09
Plum Point                     665    AR     2.67     2.67
Roademacher 2 & 3            1,172    LA     2.79     2.71
Roy L. Nelson (1, 2, 6)        550    LA     2.55     2.55
Sheldon 1 & 2                  225    NE     1.45     1.42
Sikeston                       235    MO     2.04     2.02
Sooner 1 & 2                 1,046    OK     2.43     2.42
Southwest Power St. 2          275    MO     2.11     2.09
Tolk 1 & 2                   1,060    TX     2.02     2.02
Welsh 1 - 3                  1,584    TX     2.43     2.41
White 1 & 2                  1,640    AR     2.68     2.64

                                                             ABB
2      Transmission Modeling Assumptions

2.1. Introduction
SPP provided the following power flow cases for study years 2013 and 2022. These cases represent the
Entergy and SPP transmission systems as well as the rest of the Eastern Interconnection. These cases are
in PSS/E 30 format.

2013 Summer Peak Case:
Entergy_CBA_2013S_FINAL_V30+TVA+STEP_Zones_R1_MBPC_R6+Ratings.sav

2022 Summer Peak Case:
Entergy_CBA_2022S_FINAL_V30+STEP+TVA+SOCO+WIND_Zones_R1_MBPC_R3+Ratings.sav

See Appendix A for a summary of the modeling assumptions used in the development of these cases.

2.2. Generation and Load Levels in the Entergy Footprint
Total demand (load + losses) in the Entergy footprint in the 2013 summer peak case is 33,874 MW; the
corresponding demand for 2022 summer peak conditions is 37,972 MW. Tables 2.1(a) and (b) summarize
Entergy and other co-op/municipal load and losses for the given summer peak load conditions.

                          Table 2.1(a): Power Flow Case Summary -2013 Summer Peak
                (Entergy_CBA_2013S_FINAL_V30+TVA+STEP_Zones_R1_MBPC_R3+Ratings.sav)

                                GENERATION                     LOSSES    INTERCHANGE       EXPORT
    AREA       DESCRIPTION                       LOAD (MW)
                                   (MW)                         (MW)         (MW)          /IMPORT
      328    PLUM                    929.1            0           1.1           928         EXPORT
      329    OMLP                      0             53.7         0.5          54.2         IMPORT
      331    BCA                      14.1            14          0.1             0          NONE
      332    LAGN                    2866.7         2310.5        26.1         530.1        EXPORT
      334    WESTMEMP                  0              97          0.8          97.8         IMPORT
      335    CONWAY                    0             240          0.6          240.6        IMPORT
      336    BUBA                      0             73.2         0.1          73.3         IMPORT
      337    PUPP                      0               0            0             0          NONE
      338    DERS                      0              74            0            74         IMPORT
      339    DENL                      38           311.9          2.1          276         IMPORT
      351    EES                    27822.2        26846.4       542.6         432.8        EXPORT
      502    CELE                    3158.6         2490.5        60.9         607.2        EXPORT
      503    LAFA                    230.4           495          5.4           270         IMPORT
      504    LEPA                    163.1           227          0.1            64         IMPORT
       SYSTEM TOTALS                35222.2        33233.2       640.4        1348.2        EXPORT

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Table 2.1(b): Power Flow Case Summary -2022 Summer Peak
(Entergy_CBA_2022S_FINAL_V30+STEP+TVA+SOCO+WIND_Zones_R1_MBPC_R3+Ratings.sav)

                      GENERATION                LOSSES   INTERCHANGE   EXPORT
AREA    DESCRIPTION                 LOAD (MW)
                         (MW)                    (MW)        (MW)      /IMPORT
328    PLUM               929.1          0        1.1         928      EXPORT
329    OMLP                  0          60.4      0.3        60.7      IMPORT
331    BCA                 14.2          14       0.1         0.1      EXPORT
332    LAGN               3446.7       2873.8     37.3       535.6     EXPORT
334    WESTMEMP              0         106.1       0.3       106.3     IMPORT
335    CONWAY                0         317.9      1.2        319.1     IMPORT
336    BUBA                  0          89.9      0.2        90.1      IMPORT
337    PUPP                 0.3          0          0         0.3      EXPORT
338    DERS                  0          82.1        0        82.1      IMPORT
339    DENL                52.3         356        2.9       306.6     IMPORT
351    EES               30924.9       29789     662.5       472.8     EXPORT
502    CELE               3400.6       2698.9     80.2       621.4     EXPORT
503    LAFA               190.3        550.1      10.1        370      IMPORT
504    LEPA                173.5       237.4       0.1         64      IMPORT
 SYSTEM TOTALS           39131.9      37175.6    796.3      1159.3     EXPORT

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2.3. Power Flow Analysis Criteria
This section describes the criteria that will be used in the power flow analysis part of the study.

Power flow analysis will be performed on the power flow cases described in Section 2.1. For the purposes
of this analysis, transmission facilities rated 69 kV and above within Entergy and other embedded areas
(and tie-lines out of Entergy) will be monitored. Facilities rated 345 kV and above in the Tier 1 facilities 1
will also be monitored.

For thermal overloads, each branch element (transformer, transmission line, or feeder) in the monitored
system will be monitored and electrical flows above the applicable branch rating (normal continuous
rating (Rate A) under system intact conditions and contingency conditions) will be flagged.

N-1 G-1 contingencies and selected N-2 contingencies are performed in WOTAB and Amite South. For
bus voltage violations, the following range limits and pre-to-post-contingency voltage change criteria will
be applied:
•      0.95 -1.05 pu for system intact conditions
•      0.92 -1.05 pu for contingency conditions (buses rated 69 kV – 345 kV)
•      0.95 - 1.05 pu for contingency conditions (buses rated 500 kV)
•      Voltage change criteria of 0.01 pu

The following types of contingencies will be simulated in Entergy footprint: transmission line outages and
transformer outages. These outages will be based on “automatic” N-1 contingency specification and will
include branches connected between buses with a base voltage of 69 kV and above. It is understood that
for the evaluations in the individual load pockets / study regions, Entergy has been studying the impacts
of simultaneous outage of a transmission element and a generating unit (G1N1). For the major study
regions (WOTAB and Amite South), Entergy provided the respective G1N1 contingency descriptions.
G1N1 analysis will be run for these study regions (in addition to the general N-1 analysis that will be
performed for the entire study area). As in the N-1 analysis, transmission facilities rated 69 kV and above
within Entergy and other embedded areas (and tie-lines out of Entergy) will be monitored. A similar
analysis will be performed for Amite South.

1
 Tier 1 Areas: Area 330 (AECI), Area 346 (SOCO), Area 347 (TVA), Area 349 (SMEPA), Area 356 (AMRN), Area 520
(AEPW), Area 544 (EMDE), Area 524 (OKGE) and Area 515 (SWPA).

                                                                                                  ABB
3   Appendixes

    Appendix A - Modeling Assumptions for Entergy Regional State Committee
                      Minimizing Bulk Power Cost Study

                                                          •Eastern Interconnect
                                                           •Topology
            ERAG MMWG models                               •Generation
                                                           •Load

                                                     •SPP
                                                      •Topology
             SPP MOD® projects                        •Generation
                                                      •Load

                                                •Entergy & Embedded
                                                 •Topology
               Entergy models                    •Generation
                                                 •Load
                                                 •Interchange & Transactions

                                           •SPP
                                            •Interchange & Transactions
               SPP transaction              •Assume Entergy Transaction to/from SPP
                spreadsheet

                                       •Entergy
                   Entergy              •2010‐2012 final construction plan
                 Construction
                    Plan
                                 •SPP & Entergy
                                  •Topology (with Construction Plan)
                    CBA           •Generation
                   models         •Load
                                  •Interchange & Transactions

                    MBPC
                   models

                                                                                      ABB
Foundational Cases
Base Model
       MMWG 2009 Series (2011S & 2020S)
SPP RTO Areas
       MDWG 2010 Series model with projects according to in-service dates (2012S & 2021S)
Entergy Areas
       Entergy 2009 Series model with 2010-2012 Construction Plan (2013S & 2019S)

Projects
SPP MOD Projects with an Effective Date on or before 7/1/2013
SPP MOD Projects with an Effective Date on or before 6/1/2022
Entergy 2010-2012 Construction Plan Projects (Approved and Proposed) posted on Entergy’s OASIS
       http://www.oatioasis.com/EES/EESDocs/ICT_PlanningStudiesAndRelatedDocuments.htm

Transactions
Entergy ICT Transactions used to build the 2009 Series Models
SPP Transactions used to build the 2009 Series ERAG MMWG Models

Load Levels
Interpolation of load levels between 2011S and 2015S to achieve 2013S for loading of SPP footprint
Extrapolation of load levels from 2015S and 2020S to achieve 2022S loading for loading of SPP footprint
Entergy Forecasted Load levels for 2013S for Entergy footprint
Entergy Forecasted Load levels for 2022S for Entergy footprint

Generation Dispatch
Entergy Generation Dispatched in accordance with Entergy OATT Attachment D
SPP Generation Dispatched in accordance with SPP MDWG processes

Model Building Process
1. SPPs Model On Demand (MOD) was used to develop the SPP RTO MDWG model

   The parameters used when extracting the case information:
      a) Profiles
              i. MDWG 2010 B1r3 2012_Summer used for all seasonal profiles
             ii. MDWG 2010 B1r3 2021_Summer used for all seasonal profiles
      b) Ratings
              i. Summer
             ii. Normal, Long Term Emergency and Short Term Emergency
      c) Projects
              i. Review Status = Pending Acceptance and Acceptance
             ii. Effective date greater than 8-1-2009 and less than 8-1-2013
            iii. Effective date greater than 8-1-2009 and less than 8-1-2020
      d) Case Definitions
              i. Entergy CBA 2013S (12-14-09)
             ii. Entergy CBA 2022S (12-14-09)

                                                                                          ABB
2. The raw files that were extracted from MOD had a few errors and were corrected
3. All SPP areas were extracted from the MOD output and inserted into the 2009 Series MMWG base
    cases for 2011S & 2020S; we will call this new model the Entergy CBA model
       a) SPP Areas 502, 503, 504, 515, 520, 523, 524, 525, 526, 527, 531, 534, 536, 539, 540, 541,
            542, 544, 545, 546, 640, 645, 650 (all SPP areas, including Nebraska entities)
4. Since we are developing a 2013 and 2022 case and the loads in the extracted MOD areas for SPP are
    2012 and 2020 values we need to scale the loads accordingly
    Process to scale loads
       a) 2013S
                 i. The loads were scaled by interpolation
                        1. Loads in the 2011S and 2015S MMWG models were compared and a linear
                            slope was developed
                        2. The slope value was then used to create a 2013S load value
       b) 2022S
                 i. The loads were scaled by extrapolation
                        1. Loads in the 2015S and 2020S MMWG models were compared and a linear
                            slope was developed
                        2. The slope value was then used to create a 2022S load value
5. Generation was scaled in each control area pro-rata to make up the difference in generation and load
    from scaling the loads in step 4
6. Entergy areas were then integrated in the Entergy CBA model using Entergy’s 2009 series 2013S and
    2022S models
    Process to create Entergy 2022S model for integration into MMWG model
       a) The 2019S Entergy 2009 series model loads were scaled using Entergy’s process for load
            growth
       b) Entergy units were dispatched economically to accommodate the load adjustment
    Areas that were extracted from the Entergy model and integrated into the MMWG model are:
       a) Entergy Areas 351,332,334,335,336,337,338,339,328,329
7. Area interchanges were synchronized in the Entergy CBA model
    Transactions and interchanges from SPP MDWG 2010 series transaction book were used
       a) The SPP 2012S and 2021S transactions were fed into the MMWG cases since they were the
            closest to the Entergy CBA model year that was available in the workbook
       b) The Entergy transactions that were in the transaction workbook were excluded and assumed
            that Entergy transactions to/from SPP were maintained from Entergy Model
    The Entergy transactions and interchanges that were extracted and integrated in the Entergy CBA
    model during step 6 were not changed
8. The interchange mismatch for the Entergy CBA model was balanced using the PJM control area
9. Addition of the Entergy Construction plan into the Entergy CBA model
    Projects that were included
       a) Entergy’s 2010-2012 Construction Plan approved and proposed projects according to in-
            service dates
10. Areas in SPP were re-dispatched according to SPP RTO MDWG processes to fix swing bus values

Reliability Assessment Performed
1. A reliability assessment was performed on all SPP and Entergy areas using the following criteria

                                                                                           ABB
a) Contingency Analysis on all elements 230kV and above
2. Projects were developed to alleviate thermal and voltage violations 230kV and above

Entergy Transmission Planning Model Assessment and Recommended Changes
1. 2022 Model recommendations
      a) Entergy recommended that the model include “Identified Target Areas [Beyond 2012]” from
         the Entergy 2010-2012 Construction Plan to address some long term issues present in the 2022
         model.
              i. The projects were added to the final 2022 model only

SPP Wind generation increased to 8GW to 2022 case
1. 2022 Model additions
      a) Added SPP RTO wind generation to model
      b) Added Upgrades that were needed for the WITF 10% study to make wind deliverable without
         overloads.
      c) Fixed the Zones outside Entergy and SPP to not overlap Entergy Range.

Corrected Bus names
1. ABB noticed that some bus names had been changed to an incorrect name when updating zones.
   Names were fixed
   Model Name: (Entergy_CBA_2013S_FINAL_V30+TVA+STEP_Zones_R1_MBPC_R2.sav)

Powerflow model benchmarking
Analysis on initial powerflow model benchmarking results indicated the need to include some approved
Entergy 2011-2013 Construction Plan Projects. The projects below were added to the 2013 powerflow
model base case and the GridView model topology for the Entergy area.
Entergy 2011-2013 Construction Plan Projects (Approved) posted on Entergy’s OASIS:

Entergy Arkansas (EAI)
1. Pine Bluff Voltage Support Project - Phase 1 Poyen 115 kV Substation: Add 21.6 MVAR Capacitor
   Bank
2. Sheridan South 500 kV FG Upgrade: Mabelvale 500 kV Substation replace 3 breakers, 13 switches,
3. and 2 line traps
4. Sheridan South 500 kV FG Upgrade: Sheridan 500 kV Substation replace 11 switches, and 6 line traps
5. Sheridan South 500 kV FG Upgrade: White Bluff 500 kV Substation replace 5 switches, and 2 line
6. Traps
7. Sheridan South 500 kV FG Upgrade: Eldorado 500 kV Substation replace 1 switch and 2 line traps

Entergy Louisiana (ELL)
1. Golden Meadow to Leeville 115 kV - Rebuild/relocate 115 kV transmission line
2. Bayou Verrett - Add 40.7 MVAR Capacitor Bank

                                                                                         ABB
Entergy Texas (ETI)
1. Deweyville (JNEC) - Add 69 kV capacitor bank
2. Elizabeth to Gallier - Uprate 69 kV line 2.5 miles
3. Kolbs 230 kV - Add capacitor bank
4. Hearne to Calvert - Uprate 69 kV line.
5. Caldwell 69 kV: Expand capacitor bank

Entergy Gulf States Louisiana (EGL)
1. Addis to Cajun 230 kV line - Upgrade Limiting Section With Double-Bundled 649.5 ACAR (654
   MVA)
2. Jackson to Tejac: Upgrade 69 kV transmission line
3. Carlyss to Citcon West 138 kV: Upgrade station equipment

Entergy Mississippi (EMI)
1. Ray Braswell to Forest Hill 115 kV Line - Reconductor line

                                                                                    ABB
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