A new era of discoveries from astrophysical multimessengers - Virtual Seminar on MultiMessenger Astronomy - May 18, 2021
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A new era of discoveries from astrophysical multimessengers Miguel Mo afá Virtual Seminar on MultiMessenger Astronomy — May 18, 2021 st
Outline The Messenger • Current status • Next generation • First multimessenger results? AMO • Introduction • Archival analyses • Real-time coincidences • Prospects N s
J. Beringer et al. (Particle Data Group) Phys. Rev. D86, 010001 (2012) Duldig, Science 314 (2006) 429-430 Current status 3 10 • hadron ∆ E/E=20% photons m-2 s-1 sr-1] • 2 10 • neutrinos 1.6 HiRes 1 E F(E) [GeV UHECRs • gravitational waves HiRes 2 10 Telescope Array 2011 2.6 Auger 2011 • dark matter 1 18 19 20 10 10 10 E [eV] s
Current status • hadron • photons • neutrinos • gravitational waves • dark matter s
Current status • hadrons • photon • neutrinos • gravitational waves • dark matter s
Current status HAWC sky map E > 500 GeV (~4 years of data) Full array • hadrons • photon • neutrinos • gravitational waves • dark matter Fermi-LAT sky smoothed map E > 50 GeV (Pass 8 - 6 years of data) (courtesy of M. Ajello) s
Current status • hadrons • photon • neutrinos • gravitational waves • dark matter s
Current status • hadrons • photons • neutrino • gravitational waves • dark matter s
Current status • hadrons • photons • neutrino • gravitational waves • dark matter s
Current status • hadrons • photons • neutrino • gravitational waves • dark matter ANTARES Image by François Montanet - Uploader was Jmarino at de.wikipedia, CC BY-SA 2.0 fr, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7926479 s
Current status • hadrons • photons • neutrinos • gravitational wave • dark matter s
Current status • hadrons • photons • neutrinos • gravitational waves • dark matter
Future • hadron • photons • neutrinos • gravitational waves • dark matter s
Future • hadrons • photon • neutrinos • gravitational waves • dark matter s
Future • hadrons • photon • neutrinos • gravitational waves • dark matter s
Future • hadrons • photons • neutrino • gravitational waves • dark matter s
Future • hadrons • photons • neutrino • gravitational waves • dark matter Copyright Edward Berbee/Nikhef s
Future • hadrons • photons • neutrinos • gravitational wave • dark matter s
Future • hadrons • photons • neutrinos • gravitational waves • dark matter
First “multimessenger” results
First “multimessenger” results M. Ahlers, K. Murase, Phys. Rev. D 90 (2014) 023010
First “multimessenger” results supernova remnants (|b| < 2± ) UMC (|b| < 10± , 30± < l < 220± ) hypernova remnants (|b| < 2± ) IC-40 (g) (°10± < b < 5± , 280± < l < 330± ) diffuse cosmic rays (|b| < 2± ) EAS-TOP (|b| < 5± , l 2 [40± ,111± ][[134± ,205± ]) HiSCORE (5yrs, |b| < 2± ) Tibet (|b| < 2± , 20± < l < 55± ) LHAASO (1yr, |b| < 2± ) Tibet (|b| < 2± , 140± < l < 225± ) HAWC (3yrs, |b| < 2± ) CASA-MIA (|b| < 5± , 50± < l < 200± ) CTA (100h, |b| < 2± ) Milagro (|b| < 5± , 40± < l < 100± ) HEGRA (|b| < 5± , 0± < l < 255± ) Milagro (|b| < 2± , l 2 [30± ,65± ]([65± ,85± ])) HEGRA (|b| < 5± , 20± < l < 60± ) Milagro (|b| < 2± , l 2 [85± ,110± ]([136± ,216± ])) 10°6 HAWC E 2 Jg [GeV cm°2 s°1 sr°1 ] 10°7 10°8 10°9 M. Ahlers, K. Murase, Phys. Rev. D 90 (2014) 023010 100 101 102 103 Eg [TeV]
First “multimessenger” results
Truly multimessenger studies!
The Astrophysical play Multimessenger Observatory Network
The AMON concept AMON provides the framework for: • Real-time and near real-time sharing of subthreshold data among multimessenger observatories • Real-time and archival searches for any coincident (in time and space) signals. • Prompt distribution of alerts for follow- up observations https://www.amon.psu.edu/ 26
The AMON concept AMON provides the framework for: AMON unifies and simplifies existing multimessenger efforts: • Real-time and near real-time sharing of subthreshold data among multimessenger observatories • Real-time and archival searches for any coincident (in time and space) signals. • Prompt distribution of alerts for follow- up observations Astrop. Phys. Vol. 45, 56–70, 2013 Astrop. Phys. Vol. 114, 68–76, 2020 https://www.amon.psu.edu/ 27
The AMON concept AMON provides the framework for: • Real-time and near real-time sharing of subthreshold data among multimessenger observatories • Real-time and archival searches for any coincident (in time and space) signals. • Prompt distribution of alerts for follow- up observations https://www.amon.psu.edu/ 28
The Network • Triggering: IceCube, ANTARES, Auger, HAWC, VERITAS, FACT, Swift-BAT, MAGIC, HESS • Follow-up: Swift-XRT & UVOT, VERITAS, FACT, MASTER, LCOGT, MAGIC, HESS • Pending: LIGO, PTF, TA, LHAASO, … https://www.amon.psu.edu/join/ 29
– 18 –– 18 – The Astrophysical Journal, 833:117 (8pp), 2016 December 10 doi:10.3847/1538-4357/833/1/117 © 2016. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Early archival analysis examples SEARCH FOR BLAZAR FLUX-CORRELATED TEV NEUTRINOS IN ICECUBE 40-STRING DATA C. F. Turley1,2, D. B. Fox2,3,4, K. Murase1,2,3,4, A. Falcone2,3, M. Barnaba3, S. Coutu1,2, D. F. Cowen1,2,3, G. Filippatos1,2, C. Hanna1,2,3, A. Keivani1,2, C. Messick1,2, P. Mészáros1,2,3,4, M. Mostafá1,2,3, F. Oikonomou1,2, I. Shoemaker1,2, M. Toomey1,2, and G. TešiĆ1,2 • ’s + rays 2 (For The Astrophysical Multimessenger Observatory Network) 1 Department of Physics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA; cft114@psu.edu Center for Particle & Gravitational Astrophysics, Institute for Gravitation and the Cosmos, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA 3 Department of Astronomy & Astrophysics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA 4 Center for Theoretical & Observational Cosmology, Institute for Gravitation and the Cosmos, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA Received 2016 August 30; revised 2016 October 2; accepted 2016 October 5; published 2016 December 12 ‣ IC40 and Fermi-LAT, A. Keivani et al., PoS (ICRC’15) 786 (2015) ABSTRACT We present a targeted search for blazar flux-correlated high-energy (en 1 TeV) neutrinos from six bright northern ‣ IC40/59 and Fermi-LAT: Astrophys. J. 863 (2018) 64 blazars, using the public database of northern hemisphere neutrinos detected during “IC40” 40-string operations of the IceCube neutrino observatory (2008 April to 2009 May). Our six targeted blazars are subjects of long-term monitoring campaigns by the VERITAS TeV γ-ray observatory. We use the publicly available VERITAS light curves to identify periods of excess and flaring emission. These predefined intervals serve as our “active temporal ‣ IC40/59 and Swift-BAT sub-threshold (in progress) windows” in a search for an excess of neutrinos, relative to Poisson fluctuations of the near-isotropic atmospheric neutrino background, which dominates at these energies. After defining the parameters of an optimized search, we confirm the expected Poisson behavior with Monte Carlo simulations prior to testing for excess neutrinos in the actual data. We make two searches: one for excess neutrinos associated with the bright flares of Mrk421 that ‣ IC40 and VERITAS blazar TeV ares: Astrophys. J. 833 (2016) 117 occurred during the IC40 run, and one for excess neutrinos associated with the brightest emission periods of five other blazars (Mrk 501, 1ES 0806+524, 1ES 1218+304, 3C 66A, and W Comae), all significantly fainter than the Mrk421 flares. We find no significant excess of neutrinos from the preselected blazar directions during the selected temporal windows. We derive 90% confidence upper limits on the number of expected flux-associated • rays + gravitational waves neutrinos from each search. These limits are consistent with previous point-source searches and Fermi GeV flux- correlated searches. Our upper limits are sufficiently close to the physically interesting regime that we anticipate that future analyses using already-collected data will either constrain models or yield discovery of the first blazar- associated high-energy neutrinos. ‣ words: BL Lacertae objects: general – BL Lacertae objects: individual (Markarian 421, Markarian 501) – SwiftKey cosmic rays LIGO and S5general – gamma-rays: (in–progress) neutrinos Supporting material: machine-readable table • ’s + rays 1.+INTRODUCTION cosmic rays correlated variability in their neutrino and EM emissions, or The IceCube Collaboration has instrumented a cubic kilo- sufficiently bright individual sources may (with time) be Fig. Fig. 2.— Times 2.— Times of interest of interest for Markarian for Markarian 421. 421. TheseThese times times were selected were selected in ourininitial our initi identified as a priori interesting, astrophysically plausible EM optimization optimization as theasmost the most sensitive sensitive searchsearch for associated for associated neutrinos neutrinos (Sec 2.3). (Sec 2.3). The selectio The selection meter of Antarctic ice at the South Pole with 86 “strings” of sources that are coincident with a point-like or extended excess 4 10 24 cm 2 and yields an expecte ‣ PBH evaporation searches, G. Tešić, PoS (ICRC’15) 328 (2015) photomultiplier tubes, readout electronics, and an internal of neutrinos on the sky. includes includes 45.6 with 45.6 days days awith a total total -ray fluence -ray fluence 10 ⇥ of 4.1of⇥ 4.1 cm and yields an expected calibration system so as to detect high-energy (en 1 TeV) With respect to the first approach, γ-ray bursts (GRBs) have background background of 1.03ofneutrinos. 1.03 neutrinos. neutrinos from atmospheric cosmic-ray showers and extra- long been considered promising candidates for high-energy terrestrial sources (Achterberg et al. 2006). Operations of the neutrino emission (Waxman & Bahcall 1997; Gao et al. 2013; • others… FRB + Swift: ApJL 832 (2016) L1 79-string and full-strength 86-string facilities since 2010 recently yielded discovery of a population of cosmic neutrinos Bustamante et al. 2015). Given the brief timescale for high- energy emission from the typical GRB and the precision 30 timing (Aartsen et al. 2013a, 2013b, 2014a), validating the experi- of IceCube-detected neutrinos, known GRBs can be readily fl
Early archival analysis examples R.A. 3 3 BAT field of view; no FRBs occurred within the IBIS • ’s + rays field of BAT view. field For eachno of view; FRB FRBs with simultaneous occurred within the BAT IBIS 97.5 100.0 102.5 105.0 5.0 coverage, a field we of retrieved view. Forthe each relevant FRB with data simultaneous from the High- BAT 2.5 Energy Astrophysics coverage, we retrieved Science the Archive relevant data Research from theCenter High- ‣ IC40 and Fermi-LAT, A. Keivani et al., PoS (ICRC’15) 2 Astrophysics 786 for(2015) Dec. Energy Science Archive Research 0 (HEASARC ) and searched sources within 15Center of -55.0 0.0 S the FRB (HEASARC coordinates. 2 ) and This searchedradius foraccounts sources within for uncer- 150 of ‣ taintythe in FRB coordinates. the positions of both This the radius radio accounts sourcefor(typi-uncer- IC40/59 and Fermi-LAT: Astrophys. J. 863 (2018) 64 of both the radio source −2.5 tainty in the positions cally localized to a single beam with FWHM ⇡ 150 ) and (typi- 0 -52.5 cally localized to a single the subthreshold BAT source candidates (having 90%- beam with FWHM ⇡ 15 ) and the subthreshold BAT0 source candidates (having 90%- ‣ IC40/59 and Swift-BAT sub-threshold (incontainment progress) BAT counts s–1 (15–50 keV) containment radii r90 ⇡ 7 ) that 0 are observed in these 0.03 b radii r90 ⇡ 7 ) that are observed in these data. 0.02 data. The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 832:L1 (9pp), 2016 November 20 We used the heasoft (v.doi:10.3847/2041-8205/832/1/L1 6.18) software tools and cal- ‣ We used the heasoft (v. 6.18) software tools and cal- IC40 and VERITAS blazar TeV ares:ibration © 2016. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Astrophys. for our ibration J. forhigh-energy 833 our high-energy (2016) datadata analyses 117 analyses 3 . Swift 3 . SwiftBAT BAT 0.01 surveysurveydata data include detector include detectorplane planehistograms histograms (DPHs) (DPHs) 0.00 DISCOVERY OF A TRANSIENT GAMMA-RAY COUNTERPART TO FRB 131104 of theoffull-bandpass the full-bandpass (15–195 (15–195keV)keV) 300300 s exposures s exposures and and • rays + gravitational waves J. J. DeLaunay1,3, D. B. Fox2,3,4, K. Murase1,2,3,4, scaled P. Mészáros 1,2,3,4 detector scaled , A.plane detector Keivani 1,3 , C. images plane Messick images (DPIs) 1,3 , of the (DPIs) of the soft-band soft-band −0.01 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,3 M. A. Mostafá , F. Oikonomou ,(15–50 G. TešiĆkeV) , and64C.s F. Turley exposures. We reduced these data using 1 (15–50 Department of Physics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA;keV) 64 s exposures. jjd330@psu.edu We reduced these data using −0.02 2 Department of Astronomy & Astrophysics, Pennsylvaniastandard standard procedures, State University, University Park, PA procedures, adopting 16802, USA the the adopting maximummaximum allowed allowed ‣ 3 Swift and LIGO S5 Cosmology, (in progress) −0.03 Center for Particle & Gravitational Astrophysics, Institute for Gravitation and the Cosmos, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Institute for Gravitation and oversampling oversampling parameter University,of Stateparameter 10, of 10, and Park,and searched USA forfor searched can-can- 4 Center for Theoretical & Observational the Cosmos, Pennsylvania University PA 16802, Received 2016 September 26; accepted 2016 September 29; published 2016 November 11 Time after UTC 18:03:59 (s) didatedidatesources sources usingusing the the batcelldetect batcelldetect sliding-cell sliding-cell algo-algo- ABSTRACT rithm.rithm. This This routine routine uses useslocallocal estimates estimates of ofthethe back-back- • ’s + rays + cosmic rays We report our discovery in Swift satellite data of a transient ground ground gamma-ray and noise andcounterpart noise level level (3.2σ to identify toconfidence) identify thecandidate candidate to fast sources, sources, and and Figure1.1. Figure for the Swift BAT Swift transient BAT discovery discovery image gamma-ray image and counterpart for the transient gamma-ray counterpart to FRB 131104, and light to light curve FRB curve 131104, radio burst (FRB) FRB 131104, the first such counterpart tothen any FRB.then Theperforms performs transient hasa apoint-spread a point-spreadduration T90 100 functionfunction s and(PSF) (PSF) fit fit to to de-de- SwiftJ0644.5 Swift J0644.5 5111. 5111. (a) (a) Swift Swift J0644.5 J0644.5 51115111 discovery discoveryimage image −6 −2 (15–150 keV; UTC 18:03:52 start; 300 s exposure), showing a small a fluence Sγ≈4×10 erg cm , increasing the energy budget for thisan rive event by more than accurate sourcea billion times; atand position the BAT counts esti- (15–150 keV; UTC 18:03:52 start; 300 s exposure), showing a small nominal z≈0.55 redshift implied by its dispersion rive measure,an theaccurate burst’s source gamma-ray position energy outputand BAT is counts esti- portion of the BAT field of view in tangent plane projection. The portion ‣ PBH evaporation search of the BAT field of view in tangent circle) isplane projection. The Eγ≈5×1051 erg. Thesearches, observed radio to G. Tešić, PoS mate.for(ICRC’15) We131104estimated 328 (2015) uncertainties in source positions region for FRB 131104 (black shown; regions with gamma-ray mate. fluence ratio We FRB estimated is uncertainties consistent with a in lower source positions search
Early archival analysis examples R.A. 3 3 BAT field of view; no FRBs occurred within the IBIS • ’s + rays field of BAT view. field For eachno of view; FRB FRBs with simultaneous occurred within the BAT IBIS 97.5 100.0 102.5 105.0 5.0 coverage, a field we of retrieved view. Forthe each relevant FRB with data simultaneous from the High- BAT 2.5 Energy Astrophysics coverage, we retrieved Science the Archive relevant data Research from theCenter High- ‣ IC40 and Fermi-LAT, A. Keivani et al., PoS (ICRC’15) 2 Astrophysics 786 for(2015) Dec. Energy Science Archive Research 0 (HEASARC ) and searched sources within 15Center of -55.0 0.0 S the FRB (HEASARC coordinates. 2 ) and This searchedradius foraccounts sources within for uncer- 150 of ‣ taintythe in FRB coordinates. the positions of both This the radius radio accounts sourcefor(typi-uncer- IC40/59 and Fermi-LAT: Astrophys. J. 863 (2018) 64 of both the radio source −2.5 tainty in the positions cally localized to a single beam with FWHM ⇡ 150 ) and (typi- 0 -52.5 cally localized to a single the subthreshold BAT source candidates (having 90%- beam with FWHM ⇡ 15 ) and the subthreshold BAT0 source candidates (having 90%- ‣ IC40/59 and Swift-BAT sub-threshold (incontainment progress) BAT counts s–1 (15–50 keV) containment radii r90 ⇡ 7 ) that 0 are observed in these 0.03 b radii r90 ⇡ 7 ) that are observed in these data. 0.02 data. The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 832:L1 (9pp), 2016 November 20 We used the heasoft (v.doi:10.3847/2041-8205/832/1/L1 6.18) software tools and cal- ‣ We used the heasoft (v. 6.18) software tools and cal- IC40 and VERITAS blazar TeV ares:ibration © 2016. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Astrophys. for our ibration J. forhigh-energy 833 our high-energy (2016) datadata analyses 117 analyses 3 . Swift 3 . SwiftBAT BAT 0.01 surveysurveydata data include detector include detectorplane planehistograms histograms (DPHs) (DPHs) 0.00 DISCOVERY OF A TRANSIENT GAMMA-RAY COUNTERPART TO FRB 131104 of theoffull-bandpass the full-bandpass (15–195 (15–195keV)keV) 300300 s exposures s exposures and and • rays + gravitational waves J. J. DeLaunay1,3, D. B. Fox2,3,4, K. Murase1,2,3,4, scaled P. Mészáros 1,2,3,4 detector scaled , A.plane detector Keivani 1,3 , C. images plane Messick images (DPIs) 1,3 , of the (DPIs) of the soft-band soft-band −0.01 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,3 M. A. Mostafá , F. Oikonomou ,(15–50 G. TešiĆkeV) , and64C.s F. Turley exposures. We reduced these data using 1 (15–50 Department of Physics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA;keV) 64 s exposures. jjd330@psu.edu We reduced these data using −0.02 2 Department of Astronomy & Astrophysics, Pennsylvaniastandard standard procedures, State University, University Park, PA procedures, adopting 16802, USA the the adopting maximummaximum allowed allowed ‣ 3 Swift and LIGO S5 Cosmology, (in progress) −0.03 Center for Particle & Gravitational Astrophysics, Institute for Gravitation and the Cosmos, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Institute for Gravitation and oversampling oversampling parameter University,of Stateparameter 10, of 10, and Park,and searched USA forfor searched can-can- 4 Center for Theoretical & Observational the Cosmos, Pennsylvania University PA 16802, Received 2016 September 26; accepted 2016 September 29; published 2016 November 11 Time after UTC 18:03:59 (s) didatedidatesources sources usingusing the the batcelldetect batcelldetect sliding-cell sliding-cell algo-algo- ABSTRACT rithm.rithm. This This routine routine uses useslocallocal estimates estimates of ofthethe back-back- • ’s + rays + cosmic rays We report our discovery in Swift satellite data of a transient ground ground gamma-ray and noise andcounterpart noise level level (3.2σ to identify toconfidence) identify thecandidate candidate to fast sources, sources, and and Figure1.1. Figure for the Swift BAT Swift transient BAT discovery discovery image gamma-ray image and counterpart for the transient gamma-ray counterpart to FRB 131104, and light to light curve FRB curve 131104, radio burst (FRB) FRB 131104, the first such counterpart tothen any FRB.then Theperforms performs transient hasa apoint-spread a point-spreadduration T90 100 functionfunction s and(PSF) (PSF) fit fit to to de-de- SwiftJ0644.5 Swift J0644.5 5111. 5111. (a) (a) Swift Swift J0644.5 J0644.5 51115111 discovery discoveryimage image −6 −2 (15–150 keV; UTC 18:03:52 start; 300 s exposure), showing a small a fluence Sγ≈4×10 erg cm , increasing the energy budget for thisan rive event by more than accurate sourcea billion times; atand position the BAT counts esti- (15–150 keV; UTC 18:03:52 start; 300 s exposure), showing a small nominal z≈0.55 redshift implied by its dispersion rive measure,an theaccurate burst’s source gamma-ray position energy outputand BAT is counts esti- portion of the BAT field of view in tangent plane projection. The portion ‣ PBH evaporation search of the BAT field of view in tangent circle) isplane projection. The Eγ≈5×1051 erg. Thesearches, observed radio to G. Tešić, PoS mate.for(ICRC’15) We131104estimated 328 (2015) uncertainties in source positions region for FRB 131104 (black shown; regions with gamma-ray mate. fluence ratio We FRB estimated is uncertainties consistent with a in lower source positions search
Archival analysis: IC+Fermi Coincidence parameters t = ±100 s ✓
Archival analysis: IC+Fermi • Two ways to identify a coincidence signal: ‣ Look for excess of events with high log- likelihood values (real time search) ‣ Comparison of real and null distributions with the Anderson-Darling test 34
Archival analysis: IC+Fermi • Developed a time sensitive coincident analysis for IceCube and Fermi data • Methods sensitive to ‣ rare high-multiplicity events; e.g., GRBs Details at arXiv:1802.08165 ‣ a population of cosmic signals Turley et al., Astrophys. J. 863 (2018) 64 • Found a potentially interesting (p = 4.7%) correlation between photon and neutrino populations • Analysis will be extended to ‣ cover all archival Fermi and IceCube data Details at arXiv:1904.06420 W! ‣ ANTARES data! Ayala Solares et al., Astrophys. J. 886 (2019) 98 NE • Code for real-time analysis on the AMON servers is already approved and running! 35
First online analyses & follow-ups • Real-time notices ‣ HESE GCN notices went live in April 2016 ‣ EHE notices followed in July 201 ‣ HE from aring blazar • Swift proposals ‣ X-ray and UV/optical counterparts to HE ’s ‣ X-ray and UV/optical counterparts to ’s + X- and -ray coincidences 36 fl 6
First Notice example To take advantage of multi-messenger opportunities, the IceCube neutrino observatory (13) has established a system of real-time alerts that rapidly notify the astronomical community of the direction of astrophysical neutrino candidates (14). From the start of the program in April 2016 through October 2017, 10 public alerts have been issued for high-energy neutrino candidate events with well-reconstructed directions (15). side view … The neutrino alert IceCube is a neutrino observatory with more than 5000 optical sensors embedded in 1 km3 of the Antarctic ice-sheet close to the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station. The detector consists of 86 vertical strings frozen into the ice 125 m apart, each equipped with 60 digital optical modules (DOMs) at depths between 1450 m and 2450 m. When a high-energy muon-neutrino interacts with an atomic nucleus in or close to the detector array, a muon is produced mov- ing through the ice at superluminal speed and creating Cherenkov radiation detected by the DOMs. On 22 September 2017 at 20:54:30.43 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), a high- energy neutrino-induced muon track event was detected in an automated analysis that is part of IceCube’s real-time alert system. An automated alert was distributed (17) to observers 43 seconds later, providing an initial estimate of the direction and energy of the event. A sequence of refined reconstruction algorithms was automatically started at the same time, using the full event information. A representation of this neutrino event with the best-fitting reconstructed direction is shown in Figure 1. Monitoring data from IceCube indicate that the top view 0 500 1000 1500 nanoseconds 2000 2500 3000 125m observatory was functioning normally at the time of the event. 17. IceCube Collaboration, GRB Coordinates Network/AMON Notices 50579430_130033 Figure 1: Event display for neutrino event IceCube-170922A. The time at which a DOM (2017). observed a signal is reflected in the color of the hit, dark blues for earliest hits and yellow for latest. Time shown are realtive to the first DOM hit according to the track reconstruction, and earlier and later times are shown with the same colors as the first and last times, respectively. The total time the event took to cross the detector is ⇠3000 ns. The size of a colored sphere is proportional to the logarithm of the amount of light observed at the DOM, with larger spheres corresponding to larger signals. The total charge recorded is ⇠5800 photoelectrons. Inset is an 37 overhead perspective view of the event. The best-fitting track direction is shown as an arrow,
IC170922 Credit: IceCube Collaboration/NSF
Multi-messenger observations of a aring blazar Optical rays (Fermi-LAT) VHE rays (MAGIC) “Multimessenger observations of a aring blazar coincident with high-energy neutrino IceCube-170922A,” Science, Vol 361, Issue 6398, 13 July 2018 41 fl fl
Swift proposals 10-1 10-1 10-1 10-1 10-1 4 6 8 10 20 40 60 80 10 10-1 Time after Neutrino (ks 4 6 8 10 20 40 60 80 10 Time after Neutrino (ks 42 1 1 3 2 3 2 ) ) 0 0
Coincidence alert: IC+HAWC • Proof-of-concept dataset (1 month) ‣ HAWC daily sub-threshold hotspots Parameters: position, error in position, signi cance (>2.75), start time of transit, end time of transit ‣ IC track-like events Parameters: position, time of event, false positive rate density (FPRD), signal acceptance, PSF 43 fi
Coincidence alert: IC+HAWC • Temporal and spatial coincidence • Best position of the coincidence 1/year • Combine p values using Fisher’s method 1/year • Account for different DoF for different multiplicities, and use -log[p( 2> 2obs)] to rank coincidences 44
Coincidence alert: IC+HAWC Archival analysis at arXiv:2008.1061 Ayala Solares et al., Astrophys. J. 906 (2021) 63 45
Coincidence alert: IC+HAWC • Moving to real-time analysis! ‣ Receiving ~1000 HAWC daily hotspot per day ‣ Receiving ~600 IC track-like events per day ‣ Finding ~150 coincidences per day 46
VHE Notices • Started receiving HAWC’s own GRB sub-threshold triggers • Studied FARs ‣ internal a few/day ‣ send to GCN the 1/year events 47
New alerts • New GCN channel for IceCube-HAWC alerts • New (separate) GCN channel for HAWC GRB-like notices (similar to the HESE or EHE IceCube notices) 48 Alert from May 14, 2021
Coincidence alert: +GW ⊗ ⊗ (Galactic coordinates) LIGO simulated event HAWC exposure per 4 min GLADE galaxy catalog http://aquarius.elte.hu/glade/ • Joint likelihood ratio as a ranking statistics • Fisher’s method to combine p-values 49
Coincidence alert: +GW Proposed scheme GW HAWC TEMPORAL COINCIDENCE (500S WINDOW) HAWC TRIGGER • Real-time GRB search • 0.2,1,10,100s SPATIAL COINCIDENCE GW TRIGGER HAWC candidate is in the 90% GW area? LIKELIHOOD COMPUTATION GALAXY CATALOGUE P-VALUE OF THE DETECTION arXiv: 1603.07333v4 ⊗ 4-layers information: • the posterior probability ρ • Distance estimate • Dispersion • Normalization 50 GLADE: galaxy distribution LIGO-Virgo map
GW outlook • Running on: ‣ HAWC GRB-like sub-threshold triggers & HAWC hotspots ‣ LIGO-Virgo simulations of NS mergers • Working on: ‣ Run over LIGO/Virgo archival data ‣ Preparing real-time analysis for next run • Analyzing GW+(Swift sub-sub-threshold) coincidences, and X-ray follow-ups of +GW coincidences 51
In development AMON status • First Multimessenger Alerts! ‣ IC+HAWC ‣ ANTARES+Fermi-LAT • Pass-through Notices: ‣ Gold & Bronze IC events ‣ HAWC GRB-like events 52
Sub-threshold cosmic rays, ’s, Prospects rays, and GWs in real time! HE ’s GW VHE rays UHECR 53
AMON progress • AMON has made a signi cant progress toward real-time and archival analyses • AMON high-uptime servers are online and fully operational • Fast distribution of IceCube alerts of likely cosmic neutrinos to GCN/TAN since 2016 • Started issuing - coincidence alerts (HAWC—IceCube and Fermi-LAT—ANTARES), as well as new pass-through channels (e.g., HAWC and ANTARES) 54 fi
Conclusions • Current generation detectors are fantastic! • Next generation detectors will be yuuge! • Multimessenger is the best way to make progress toward understanding the messages! Thank you! Credit: Fabian Schüssler
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