A Europe that protects - Paving the way for a Defence Union? Alpeuregio Summer School
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EU-Ratspräsidentschaft 201
A Europe that protects
Paving the way for a Defence Union?
Alpeuregio Summer School
Brussels, 26th June 2019
Axel Jandesek
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EU-Ratspräsidentschaft 201
Topics
• Diving into defence
• Of fears and threats
• From strategy to shelter
• Becoming a world leader
• Looking ahead
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EU / RUSSIA
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Integration
US First
Global Ambitions
• Sanktionen – Wirtschaft, Zusammenarbeit, diplomatische Beziehungen
• Unterschiedliche Wahrnehmungen der Mitgliedstaaten
• Aufrechterhaltung Dialog
New Chance
for EU-27
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Of what Europe is really afraid
common strategic culture for three main reasons: a common European strategic culture will develop
differences in their historic experiences of war and in conjunction with closer defence cooperation, not
prior to it. Moreover, a more common strategic culture bmlv.gv.at
peace, diverging military doctrines closely linked to
distinct national identities and societal consensus on the and more practical defence cooperation are mutually-
use of military force, and diverging perceptions on reinforcing processes. The European Defence Union
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key future threats to national201 security. will accelerate the gradual development of a European
strategic culture.
Of what we are really afraid
Figure 5: The same key threats on Member States’ security radars
10 Terrorism Germany
Energy 9 Estonia
vulnerability Cyber Spain
8 Finland
7 France
Croatia
6
Italy
5 Instability/failed Netherlands
Uncontrolled and states/regional Poland
irregular migration 4
con icts United Kingdom
3
2
1
0
Technology Disruption of communication,
related trends critical infrastructure,
transport and transit routes
Hybrid Conventional
Source: European Political Strategy Centre based
Environment and resource constraints (incl. health risks, climate change, on a review of a representative sample of national
water scarcity and increasing energy needs/natural disasters) security documents
• US First bmlv.gv.at
EU /n’Roll
• Rock RUSSLAND
EU-Ratspräsidentschaft Politics
201
• Sanktionen – Wirtschaft, Zusammenarbeit, diplomatische Beziehungen
• Unterschiedliche Wahrnehmungen der Mitgliedstaaten
• Aufrechterhaltung Dialog • EU-27 ???
• Integration vs. Escape
Wars and conflicts on
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MIGRATION
the periphery of
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Europe
Terror, Dead & Injured
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MIGRATION
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in Europe
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European Border
• EU-Ratspräsidentschaft 201
& Coast Guard
• Redistribution - resettlement - repatriation
EU-Turkey Agreement
• credible bmlv.gv.at
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• responsive
• networked
• Peace & Security
• Prosperity
• Democracy
• Based on existing world orderbmlv.gv.at
EU-Ratspräsidentschaft 201
Europe and its citizens are protected by the EU and
defended by NATO (see EU-Global Strategy)
• The strength of the EU lies in the integrated security approach
• The EU also wants to become a global security player and
more self-sufficient seeking autonomy
• But:
• 22 of 28 EU Members are NATO allies
• over 90 % der EU-citizens live in a NATO country
• 80% of defence expenditures within NATO after BREXIT will be
provided by Non-EU Member States
• NATO = „military standardization entity“; plus: training & exercises 11bmlv.gv.at EU-Ratspräsidentschaft 201
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Political context
July 2014 Political guidelines of President Juncker: strengthening European citizens' security is a priority.
Europe must become a security provider.
September 2016 State of the Union speech in 2016: announcement of the creation of a European Defence Fund and
the need to go towards a European Defence Union.
European Defence Action Plan adopted, the Commission announced the initial parameter of a
November 2016
possible European Defence Fund, and started the Preparatory Action on Defence Research with a
budget of €90m for 3 years.
June 2017 Commission launched the European Defence Fund: A two step approach
Two initial programmes in the current budget (the Preparatory Action and a proposal for the European Defence
Industrial Development Programme)
Scaled up funding for the new MFF: European Defence Fund
December 2017
Permanent Structure Cooperation (PESCO) with 25 Member States, and 34 concrete operational
cooperation projects
June 2018 Commission adopted its proposal for a European Defence Fund regulation
July 2018 Council and European Parliament adopted the EDIDP regulationThe European Defence Union can foster enhanced and sea transport, remotely piloted aircraft systems,
defence solidarity, more joined-up security output, bmlv.gv.at
command and control (C2) – are the key references
and modern capability development for Member for capability development. The EU Capability
States beyond their national resources. The Development Plan (CDP), the Coordinated Annual
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individual 201 be further strengthened
components must Review on Defence (CARD), the Permanent Structured
through joint EU-level action. They will be invigorated Cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defence Fund
In defence of Europe: laying the foundations
Figure 1: Ambition, cohesion and complementarity: the foundations of a credible
of Union
European Defence a European Defence Union
European Defence Union
EU Global Strategy on Foreign and Security Policy
Bi-/ multilateral cooperation
among Member States
PESCO
CARD / CDP
EDF 2017-20
CSDP missions &
agreed forces, incl. OHQ
MFF 2021-27 &
European Peace Facility
Common Strategic Culture
Core partnerships NATO/ UN
Political will to invest in European security and
progressively frame a common defence policy 3
Source: European Political Strategy Centrebmlv.gv.at
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Fragmentation ...
... the case for greater cooperation on defence?bmlv.gv.at
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Rationale for the European Defence Fund
Reduction of inefficiencies of the current market,
ECONOMIC
synergies and economies of scale
STRATEGIC Strategic autonomy of the Union
Protection of the basic interest of the Union and its
POLITICAL
Member States
World class cutting-edge capabilities are only
available at global market conditions!bmlv.gv.at
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EPSC Brief
Fuelling the Defence Union with resources
Figure 4: Next Multiannual Financial Framework: EU defence budget scheduled for major
expansion
EU BUDGET
22x OFF BUDGET
2014-2020 2021-2027 2021-2027
European 590 m€* x22 13 bn€ European 10.5 bn€
Defence Peace
Fund 90 m€ Research 4.1 bn€ Research Facility 3 party peace operations
rd
500 m€ 8.9 bn€ Development CSDP military missions'
Development joint costs
Connecting Non-EU countries' armed
Europe forces
Facility 6.5 bn€
Military Mobility
*Starting as of 2017
Source: European Commission, European Political Strategy Centre
• 2021-2027
Fuelling budgets are
the Defence still proposals!
Union: ‘The 13 billion euro European Defence
Fund is the instrument to support
Investment
•matching decisions
ambitions withshould be based on defence capability
European defence cooperation and defence
priorities agreed by the Member States
capabilities development. By spending
resources together, we spend better towards a
While the European Defence Fund and its two windows credible Defence Union that protects
represent solid first steps on the EU level, more European citizens.’Member States’ forces will have to adapt to changing dynamics in the pace, nature and location of
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technological innovation – raising new threats and challenges. In the past, it was the military that
drove the cutting edge of technological innovation, often with beneficial ‘spill overs’ into wider civilian
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life such as satellite navigation or the Internet.
Investments on Artificial Intelligence
That relationship is now being reversed. The combined defence R&D expenditure of the 27 EDA pMS
is significantly smaller than the annual research spending of leading commercial companies – many
of them based outside of Europe, including in the US or Asia.
Comparison of defence R&D of EDA-27 with top commercial research spenders (€bn)
Amazon (USA) 14,2
Alphabet (USA) 12,3
Samsung (S. Korea) 11,2
Intel (USA) 11,2
Volkswagen (Germany) 10,7
Microsoft (USA) 10,6
Roche (Switzerland) 10,1
Merck (Germany) 8,9
Apple (USA) 8,8
Defence R&D of EDA-27 8,8
Novartis (Switzerland) 8,5
Toyota (Japan) 8,2
Johnson & Johnson (USA) 8,1
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0
The commercial sector has the lead role in AI development
At the same
Thetime, non-statespent
US Pentagon actors$7.4
are bn
using
on ‘dual-use’
AI in 2017commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technology to
improvise low-cost and adaptable alternatives to expensive military equipment. These could include
deploying fleets of cheap, disposable unmanned air vehicles (UAVs), launching cyberattacks on militarybmlv.gv.at
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EUR 13 billion for 2021 - 2027
2021-2027: EU financing rate:
§ Research: up to 100%
§ Prototypes: up to 20%
§ Post-prototype: up to 80%
Additional incentives:
• Cross-border participation of SMEs/midcaps – EU funding rate increasing
with the level of cross-border participation of SMEs/midcaps in the projects
(higher for SMEs)
• PESCO (if eligible): +10% co-financing bonusbmlv.gv.at
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orging more strategic
Figure 6: Culture of cooperation:
Culture of cooperation:
a virtuous cycle a virtuous cycle
Fighting for the same
eatre generates similar
ation of military personnel
ed experiences from the Common experiences
nd Afghanistan, that • 100.000 personnel served under t e E a
in CSDP missions and operations since 2003
king today. The PESCO
• 10 EU-level military exercises planned or
n EU military operations
li nin Strate ic Culture
Cooperation in Practice
ntion Initiative spearheaded
Common capabilities
heir own way further
• Joint planning t rou PESCO C D and t e CDP
tegic convergence between • Joint R&D ED and t e European Securit nitiative
tes. • oint procurement and maintenance
Operating with equipment • 180 projects ort over illion ana ed
ED since
more and more geared
The number of personnel is based on
national planners and
an EU Military Staff estimate, taking Common doctrine/training
eir own
intocapabilities
account that multiple individuals
e wider mosaic
rotate throughof alliedposition in a
a single • o cers trained at t e European Security
CSDP mission or operation per year. and Defence College
a similar understanding • Soldiers receivin trainin ollo in bilateral
more likely develop a more exchange agreements and Military Erasmus
what they should do.bmlv.gv.at
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The other side of the coin?bmlv.gv.at
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The Legislative Tube
Source: better europe public affairs
• Accelerating the speed of the legislative train
• Challenge for the negotiating partiesbmlv.gv.at
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The EDF Legislative Process
• Early communication with institutional stakeholders, in particular
• European Commission | DG GROW
• Council of the European Union | General Secretariat
• European Parliament | leading EP committee
• Incoming presidency
• Continuous liaison with relevant / responsible governmental bodies in the
capital
• Ministries of Defence | Research | Finance | Economy | othersbmlv.gv.at
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Looking ahead – scenarios
• 2019 EUCO, EC, VP/HR agree on Defence Union
– EP makes political condition for EC & HR/VP appointment
• 2020 EUCO, MS establish Defence Union
– EP contributes to Defence Union convent
• 2021 First HICOM EURFOR appointment
– EP contributes through financial decisions
• 2022 First EUFOR operations & actions
• 2023 MFF Revision secures budgeting of
Defence Union
• 2027+ MFF with fully fledged EU Defence Budget
• - 2030 EU treaty modification & strengthening
Defence UnionYou can also read
