22nd June 2020 - Wilson James
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COVID-19 REPORT SUMMARY The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally is now over 9 million with more than 470,000 deaths recorded, according to Worldometer. Brazil is the second country to pass the 1 million number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. The EU continue to debate on a €750bn rescue package with the French President, Emmanuel Macron, wanting an agreement in place before the summer holidays. The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has voiced concerns that the EU member states do not fully appreciate what the ‘deepest recession since the second world war’ really means. The World Health Organisation has warned that the world has entered ‘a new and dangerous phase’ with daily new infections worldwide having risen above 150,000. The warning comes after countries’ who appeared to have the virus under control, such as Germany and South Korea, face new outbreaks, as well as the continued spread of the virus in the Americas – Brazil and the USA combined account for a third of all infections and deaths. The UK’s total level of debt has risen by £173 billion over the last year and is now at £1.96 trillion. This figure is 100.9% of the country’s GDP and marks the first time since 1963 that the debt has been bigger than the economy. GLOBAL MAP OF CASES OF COVID-19 Source: Centre for Disease Control and Prevention 19.06.2020 COVID -19/RAS/22nd June 2020 2
COVID-19 REPORT UK UPDATE TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES 304,331 UK DAILY CASES 1,221 For an interactive map of COVID-19 deaths in England & Wales click here. TOTAL DEATHS LIVE STATISTICS 42,632 UK WIDE – Public Health England SCOTLAND - Scottish Government NORTHERN IRELAND: NISRA The UK has lowered its COVID-19 alert level from four to three. The virus is now considered in ‘general circulation’ although localised spikes of infection could still occur. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce an easing of social distancing regulations in England on 23rd June. Sources indicate that social distancing will be reduced to one meter as long as additional measures, such as wearing face coverings, are taken. The new measures are expected to take effect from 4th July. The UK’s other constituent nations have not yet announced any plans to change the 2-metre rule. The government have been accused of playing down COVID-19 numbers after it emerged that the official death toll surpassed 1,000 deaths for 22 consecutive days at the height of the crisis. The UK experienced its worst day on 8th April in which 1,445 people died. Members of the BAME community in Leicester are concerned over the surge in cases in the area. About 25% of the city's 2,494 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported in the past two weeks, many in east Leicester, one of the most deprived areas. Fresh outbreaks have also occurred in three meat processing plants in Anglesey and Wrexham with 250 staff having tested positive for COVID-19. A smaller outbreak has also occurred in Cornwall with 11 residents in a care home in Liskeard testing positive. On 20th June, Northern Ireland reported its first full 24-hour period without any new cases of coronavirus infection. Premier League football returned on Saturday 20th June for the first time since 7th March. Teams played in empty stadiums as the games were livestreamed to audiences at home. COVID -19/RAS/22nd June 2020 3
COVID-19 REPORT Pubs have reopened across the Isle of Man after the island recorded no new cases of infection in 28 days, becoming the first place in the British Isles to completely lift lockdown restrictions. The government have extended their temporary ban on high street evictions for businesses who are unable to pay rent. The ban has been extended from 30th June to the autumn. Wales could lift their ‘Stay Local’ advice on 6th July if they are able to continue to control the virus. However, the number of workers who are confirmed to have coronavirus following an outbreak at a chicken factory on Anglesey has risen to 158. Testing sites were set up at Llangefni and Holyhead, and at an existing facility in Bangor, following the outbreak. All staff and contractors working at the processing plant, which has 560 workers, have been asked to self-isolate for 14 days, and are being contacted for testing. Anglesey council has also confirmed schools will not reopen as planned on 29th June following incidents at the plant. The tourism and hospitality sector is set to reopen on 15th July with new government guidance highlighting the need for ‘organisational capacity, queue management, signage and markings’. Advice from members of the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group have warned that schoolchildren will need psychological support when returning to school due to the level of disruption to their lives and education as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. One study has suggested that this disruption has led to increased behavioural and emotional problems. From September, Gavin Williamson has announced plans to allow whole classes of 30 to be taught together, lifting the 15-pupil cap. After criticism from the government regarding the track and trace model, Apple and Google have stated that they had not known that the UK were planning on building a ‘hybrid model’ with the companies technology until it was announced on TV by the Health Minister, Matt Hancock. The Apple-Google system, which is already in use in Italy and Germany, can accurately estimate around 80% of encounters which according to the UK is not good enough. Apple and Google have not allowed the UK government to alter their system due to privacy concerns. The team behind the UK’s contact-tracing app, NHSX, have been accused of running interference on rival apps in order to protect their own. Professor Tim Spector at Kings College London has said that NHSX treated KCL’s COVID-19 tracking team as ‘the enemy’ and were worried it would take attention away from the NHSX app. A Music Venues Trust (MVT) survey with 28,640 respondents found that 89% of people were eager to return to concerts. However, only 36% felt confident that it would currently be safe to attend a concert and over 50% said they would visit venues fewer time or not at all in July. In light of this, MVT, who represent 819 independent UK venues, have called for £50 million in order to support them past June. £3.2 billion which was previously given by the government and promised for frontline careers has not been passed on by local authorities who are struggling to fund their services. There is a fear that if care homes do not receive this money they will be forced to close. Portugal’s UK ambassador, Manuel Lobo Antunes, has said he is keen to come to an agreement over a potential air bridge between the UK and Portugal. Prime Minister Boris Johnson hopes to announce a small number of air bridge arrangements by 29th June. A group of cross-party MPs, comprising members of Labour, the Scottish National Party and the Green Party, have written a letter to the chancellor urging the government to consider a four-day working week post COVID- 19, claiming that the policy could be ‘a powerful tool to recover from this crisis’. Lord President, Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, has warned that if measures are not proposed High and Sheriff Courts could face a backlog of 3,000 jury trials by next March. Guernsey entered phase five of its exit from lockdown on 20th June and now has no limits imposed on gatherings by social distancing rules. The Welsh government have introduced a £15.5 million fund to help transform Welsh towns and cities in order to redesign public spaces, town centres community areas and green spaces in order to encourage people to continue walking and cycling after the lockdown has finished. The Welsh government has announced a further £2 million to invest in making school journeys safer. COVID -19/RAS/22nd June 2020 4
REGIONAL UPDATES TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES 9,064,754 TOTAL DEATHS 470,981 PATIENTS RECOVERED 4,849,111 (Johns Hopkins University, 2020) COUNTRIES/REGIONS 213 CLICK HERE FOR LIVE REPORTED CASES (Worldometer, 21.06.2020) CLICK HERE FOR GRAPH *Above figures via Worldometer. Figures will vary between sources. DETAILS 6 COVID -19/RAS/22nd June 2020
ASIA India The Indian government announced on 19th June that all hospital workers leave was to be cancelled, with workers returning straight to work, due to the country’s continued struggle to contain the pandemic. On 20th June, India saw their total cases rise by 14,516 to 395,047 making them the fourth worst effected country in the world behind the USA, Brazil and Russia. The 20th June also saw an addition 12,948 deaths as a result of the virus. Indonesia Indonesia now have the highest death toll in East Asia outside of China with 2,429. The country reported an additional 1,226 new cases on 20th June taking its total number to 45,029. AFRICA Zimbabwe Zimbabwe’s Health Minister, Obadiah Moyo, has appeared in court after being arrested for corruption on Friday 19th June. Following a hearing, he has been granted bail but is expected to appear in court again at the end of July. Mr Moyo allegedly awarded a £16 million contract to a firm in Hungary to procure coronavirus tests and equipment, without adhering to proper procedure. He is the second minister in President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government to face charges for corruption. Nigeria Nigerian doctors in state-run hospitals have called off a week-long strike over welfare and inadequate protective equipment in an effort to give the government time to fulfil their outstanding demands. The strike by the National Association of Resident Doctors (NARD), which represents some 40% of Nigeria's doctors, began last Monday (15th June) but had exempted medics treating coronavirus patients. According to Johns Hopkins University, Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation of 200 million inhabitants, has recorded 19,808 COVID-19 cases and 506 related deaths since the first case of the virus was reported in February. More than 800 healthcare workers have been infected by the virus, according to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. AMERICAS Argentina The prominence of COVID-19 spikes in Argentina’s slums (called Villa’s) has highlighted the issue many informal workers have with balancing the need to socially isolate with staying financially afloat. As of writing Argentina have over 41,000 cases of COVID-19 and a reported 992 deaths. Brazil Brazil has now surpassed a million confirmed cases of COVID-19 infections, making it only the second country to do so after the United States. Additionally, over 1,200 deaths were reported for the fourth consecutive day, bringing the total almost to 49,000. Colombia Government officials have been criticised for not doing enough to reduce the violence that is still occurring in Colombia during the pandemic. Since COVID-19 restrictions were introduced, dozens of former FARC rebels and community leaders have been killed, with civil society organisations reporting that since quarantine was introduced at least one local leader has been killed every day. 7 COVID -19/RAS/22nd June 2020
Costa Rica The Costa Rican government have stopped the scheduled reopening of the country’s economy after experiencing an increase in new COVID-19 infections, with the country reporting 119 new cases in a 24 hour period over the weekend (20th June). United States of America Those attending President Trump’s campaign rally in Tulsa had to sign a waiver protecting the Trump campaign team from responsibility for any illness caught by those in attendance. During President Trump’s two hour speech to the crowd the President repeatedly used Sinophobic words to describe the virus and termed it ‘Kung-flu’. Before the rally, top public health officials in the President’s taskforce warned against the rally due to the health risks of COVID-19. Spikes in COVID-19 infection rates have been reported across states in the US, in particular in the South and West of the country. The WHO have found COVID-19 positivity rates to be in double digits in some parts of the country with Arizona at 17%, Alabama at 12%, Washington state at 11% and South Carolina at 10%. Cuba Cuba has been struggling to cope with a US blockade amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. The US implementation of an economic, commercial and financial blockade has stopped Cuba from receiving medical supplies as well as funds. The US government has threatened sanctions on firms trying to help Cuba and stopped US firms from selling medical supplies to the country. The Chinese electronic giant Alibaba offered donations of medical supplies, such as masks, respiratory fans, and tests to detect COVID-19 and the US government threatened to impose sanctions. Cuba is well known for its medical brigades and currently has more than twenty contributing to save lives around the world. Cuba currently have 2,312 confirmed cases and 85 deaths. The mortality rate is only 3.9%. Cuba claim to have the virus under control in spite of the sanctions. Healthcare workers have been going door to door checking people for possible symptoms. Those with symptoms are transferred to specially designated centres to receive treatment, mostly with medication developed by Cuba's own pharmaceutical and biotech industry. The medical examinations and treatments are all provided free of charge. EUROPE Ireland Taoiseach Leo Varadkar announced that Ireland’s roadmap out of lockdown will be accelerated after announcing that hairdressers, churches, theatres, gyms, cinemas and sporting teams can all resume activities from 29th June. Germany On 20th June, Germany reported a COVID-19 reproduction rate of 1.79 – up from 1.06 on 19th June. The country has recently suffered a setback in their COVID-19 response and have ordered all 6,500 employees of the meat processing firm, Toennies, to go into quarantine after it was found that more than 1,000 people employed by the company had tested positive for the virus. Serbia On 21st June, Serbia held polls for the election of a new parliament, the first such election in Europe since the start of the pandemic. It is expected that many of the 6.6 million who are eligible to vote will not due to fears of COVID- 19. However, polling stations were equipped with face masks and hand sanitiser. Spain Spain’s Foreign Affairs Minister has announced that UK tourists will be allowed to visit the country without being required to quarantine upon arrival. Visitors will instead undergo a “triple check” where they will be asked to provide their country of origin, contact details in case tracing is required, and to undergo a temperature check. 8 COVID -19/RAS/22nd June 2020
AUSTRALIA / OCEANIA Australia Victoria, Australia’s second most populous state and home to Melbourne, has extended its state of emergency until 19th July. The state has also re-imposed recently eased restrictions such as public gatherings. The steps came after Victoria recorded 25 cases on 20th July, its highest increase in two months. The state has recorded a quarter of all COVID-19 cases reported in Australia. MIDDLE EAST Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia lifted its nationwide curfew on 21 st June. While all commercial and economic activities are now allowed to resume, restrictions remain in place for international travel and religious pilgrimage. However, the country is yet to make an official announcement regarding the annual Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca, which would normally take place from mid-July. Yemen The scale of the COVID-19 pandemic is completely unknown but is thought to be spreading wider, faster and with deadlier consequences than any other country due to its current situation. The country has been devastated by conflict leaving millions of people without access to proper healthcare, clean water or sanitation. Food, medical and humanitarian supplies have been restricted by a blockade from the Saudi-led coalition of countries fighting the Houthi rebels as well as from the rebels themselves. They are currently suffering the worst humanitarian crisis and is one of the places most in need of help on earth according to the UN. 80% of the population depend upon aid to survive and are already struggling to cope with diseases such as dengue fever, malaria and cholera. An estimated 2 million children are acutely malnourished. Years of war have destroyed the countries health system with many medical facilities damaged or destroyed in air strikes. Alongside a lack of medicine the medics lack the personal protective equipment to shield them from the disease. The true scale of the COVID-19 outbreak has been impossible to determine due to the lack of testing and certain different areas being held by government or rebels forces. 9 COVID -19/RAS/22nd June 2020
WILSON JAMES ADVISORY Our Risk Advisory Service regularly publish articles and advisories covering a myriad of subjects. These publications can be found within our Insights section on our Risk Advisory Service website. Exploring Solutions in How to Deal with Colonial Statues It started with George Floyd, but this wasn’t the beginning. Anti-police brutality protests turned to anti-racism protests and have since begun to develop a narrative surrounding how some nations deal with their colonial past. A subject not everyone feels comfortable discussing. The recent protests and statue toppling have also presented the opportunity to open up a dialogue between communities, and how to broach the decolonisation of society. This article will look at the context behind why some statues are controversial as well as some solutions as to how to approach the question surrounding what we should do with our colonial statues. Read More. How and Why Recent Protests Have Escalated into Violence The unparalleled global reaction to the May 25th death of George Floyd has put a spotlight not just on why we protest but how. The sometimes-violent escalation of protests is not welcome by most in society and various theories exist on why this happens. Professor Clifford Stott, Professor of Social Psychology at Keele University, says George Floyd’s death and similar incidents can "become a trigger moment because it symbolises a broader experience, amongst much larger numbers of people, about the relationship between Police and the black community." He goes on "You can't think about Police brutality, and the profiling of certain communities, without thinking about the inequalities that exist in society and fuel those concerns… You could argue even the Police killings are symptoms - the underlying cause is white supremacy, racism, and things the US (United States) has not fundamentally dealt with." 1 Read More. 10 COVID -19/RAS/22nd June 2020
IN OTHER NEWS ASIA China – India Border Dispute China have claimed that the Galwan Valley, situated in the disputed Ladakh region is their territory and on their side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). China has accused Indian troops of a ‘deliberate provocation’ in its first official comments on 15th June deadly clash. The announcement comes after 20 Indian soldiers died as a result of the clash between the two sides. India still deny any violation of the Line of Actual Control. The dispute occurred due to Indian soldiers accusing Chinese soldiers of erecting structures on the LAC. Foreign ministry spokesman Lijian Zhao said the troops had crossed into Chinese territory and attacked, triggering ‘fierce physical conflicts’. However he did not give details of any Chinese casualties. On Friday (19th June) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said no foreign soldiers had crossed India's borders and no territory had been lost and vowed that India would defend its border, with military force if necessary. Hong Kong As part of the new security law imposed in Hong Kong, the Chinese government are looking to set up an office in the territory which will gather intelligence and handle crimes against national security. The new law will also supersede any local laws that contradict it. India Three fighters have been killed in a shoot-out with Indian government forces in Kashmir’s main city of Srinagar. It comes two days after eight rebels were killed in another gun battle. Military operations have been stepped up by India since the nationwide lockdown was imposed in March. More than 30 rebels have been killed so far this month already. North Korea North Korea has announced plans to send propaganda leaflets into South Korea which will denounce North Korean defectors and South Korea. The move is in retaliation for leaflets critical of the North Korean regime which were sent into the country by defectors in South Korea. The rise in tensions that resulted from these pamphlets has led to the threat of military action and the blowing up of a communications office by the North. AFRICA Democratic Republic of the Congo Vital Kamerhe, one of the President’s top aides, has been found guilty of embezzling public funds and has been sentenced to 20 years in jail. Kamerhe was found to have diverted public funds worth $48.8 million. Ethiopia The United Nations have been asked by Egypt to help resume talks between themselves, Ethiopia and Sudan over Ethiopia’s proposed $4.6 billion hydroelectric dam which while be built on the Blue Nile near the border with Sudan. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam, as it has been called, has been a source of contention between Ethiopia and Egypt, with the former wanting to become a major power exporter and the later worried about its water supply (for which they are dependent on the Nile), and wanting to secure a legally binding deal that would guarantee minimum water flows. The latest round of talks began on 9th June but Ethiopia have said they will begin to fill the damn by next month, regardless of reaching any deal. 11 COVID -19/RAS/22nd June 2020
Libya The Government of National Accord, (GNA), which is recognised by the UN and backed by Turkey, has announced that it will boycott talks that are to be held by Arab League Foreign Ministers next week. The peace initiative, which was put forward by Egypt after the defeat of Khalifa Haftar’s year-long offensive, is thought to have been suggested by Egypt in order for Haftar’s forces to regroup and has been championed by his other supporters, the UAE, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Libya's internationally recognised government has denounced Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's threats of military intervention, saying his comments were akin to ‘beating the drums of war’. He has said on 20th June that his country has a legitimate right to intervene in Libya, which borders Egypt to the West, and has ordered his army to be on stand-by and ready to carry out any mission outside of Egypt. He warned forces loyal to the GNA based in Tripoli not to cross the current front line between them and forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar, whom Cairo backs. Mali The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have appealed for Mali to re-run some of its contested local elections and convene a government of national unity. The appeal came after tens of thousands took to the streets to protest the government, as well as due to allegations of vote buying, intimidation and the kidnapping of the opposition leader, Soumaila Cisse, in the build up to the election. The incumbent, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, was re-elected in 2018 for a second five-year term but has been widely criticised for his actions on the ongoing security crisis and COVID-19 outbreak, as well as a his response to a teachers strike. Somalia Soldiers in the Somali capital of Mogadishu have ended their protest over unpaid salaries. They had blocked roads and African peacekeeping forces in the city on Saturday 20th June, with some saying they had not received wages in over a year. AMERICAS Canada Two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, have been charged with spying by China on 19 th June, having been detained in the country since December 2018. It is widely thought that China’s decision to charge the Canadians was in retaliation to the Canadian authorities detaining Meng Wanzhou, a Huawei executive, for alleged violation of US sanctions against Iran, at the request of US authorities in Vancouver just days before. United States of America President Trump held his first campaign rally since 2nd March on 20th June in Tulsa, Oklahoma and spoke for two hours to a less-than-full arena in which he criticised the anti-racism protests and defended his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The president blamed the media and bad behaviour from demonstrators outside for the smaller-than-expected attendance. On 19th June, known as Juneteenth to commemorate ‘June 19, 1865 - when a Union general arrived in Galveston, Texas and informed slaves that they were free’, anti-racism demonstrations were held in Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and Washington D.C. In Raleigh, North Carolina, protesters toppled two confederate statues leading to the state governor calling for the removal of all Confederate monuments from state grounds, citing public safety concerns. The Louisville Mayor in Kentucky, Greg Fisher, has announced that Brett Hankison will be fired for the death of Breonna Taylor. The other two police officers involved in the shooting are still on administrative reassignment. Breonna Taylor, a 26 year old health worker, was shot dead by plain-clothes police while she slept during a ‘no- knock’ warrant for drugs on 13th March. The police exchanged gunfire with her boyfriend resulting in her being shot eight times. No drugs were found at the home. 12 COVID -19/RAS/22nd June 2020
EUROPE Belarus At least 120 people across the country have been arrested in Belarus after police broke up demonstrators protesting against President Lukashenko. Lukashenko is referred to by some as Europe’s last communist dictator and has been in power since 1994 – he will be seeking a sixth term in office this August. Germany The Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany have created controversy in the German city of Gelsenkirchen after erecting a statue of Vladimir Lenin in front of the political party’s headquarters. Gangs have smashed shop windows, looted and attacked police in Stuttgart, south-west Germany. German police say more than a dozen police officers were hurt during the violence. In total, 40 shops were damaged, and nine looted. They were reportedly between 400-500 people attacking police, throwing bottles and stones, with many of the rioters hooded and wearing masks. Russia-USA Arms Control The USA and Russia will be meeting in Austria on 22nd and 23rd June to discuss ‘mutually agreed topics related to the future of arms control’ such as talks to determine what to replace the 2010 New START accord with. An invitation to join the talks was also been extended to China but has been rejected. United Kingdom Three people were killed and a further three seriously injured in a stabbing incident in Forbury Gardens, Reading on Saturday evening (20th June). Khairi Saadallah, a 25-year-old Libyan national, has been arrested and the stabbing has been declared as a terrorist incident. Two out of the three men taken to hospital have now been released. The man held on suspicion was apparently known to the Security Services. The suspect came to the attention of the security services after being flagged as someone with ‘aspirations to travel abroad - potentially for terrorism’. It is understood the information was further investigated, and no genuine threat or immediate risk was identified. Police say they are not looking for anyone else over the terror incident. There is not thought to be a wider risk to the public. The UK have experienced their fourth weekend of anti-racism protests with large demonstrations taking place in London, Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow. Tzipi Hotovely, Israel’s Settlements Minister, has been announced as Israel’s new ambassador to the United Kingdom, succeeding Mark Regev. The appointment is a controversial one due to Hotovely being a hardline supporter of the annexation of Palestinian land. Large portions of the British Jewish community are said to be disappointed at this decision with some calling on the UK government to reject the nomination. AUSTRALIA/OCEANIA Australia Australia have announced that their intelligence agencies believe the country has recently been attacked multiple times by cyber offensives. Although Prime Minister Scott Morrison would not answer questions as to whether China are behind these attacks it is though that this could be a new phase in the increased hostilities between the two countries which began when Australia called for an independent review into the origins of COVID-19 and has since escalated into the implementation of tariffs on one another’s exports as well as China using an imprisoned Australian citizen as a bargaining chip. China have denied that they are behind the cyber-attacks. 13 COVID -19/RAS/22nd June 2020
MIDDLE EAST Iran The International Atomic Energy Agency has called on Iran to stop denying them access to two sites which are suspected to be former nuclear facilities. Yemen Fierce fighting has broken out on the island of Socotra between the Yemeni government and the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) who seek an independent south Yemen. The STC have been able to gain control of the island and are attempting to drive Saudi-backed Yemeni forces off the island after overthrowing Socotra’s governor. The archipelago lies on a key shipping lane linking Europe and Asia. 14 COVID -19/RAS/22nd June 2020
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