2021 Summer Forecast - Inside This Outlook Recapping Summer 2020 2021 Summer Forecast
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2021 Summer Forecast
Inside This Outlook
Recapping Summer 2020 2
2021 Summer Forecast 2
Monthly Forecast
3-4
Breakdown
Outlook Insights 4
2021 Summer Forecast
Recapping the Summer of 2020
The summer of and Maryland see-
2020 was the ing their second
tenth consecu- warmest overall.
tive warmer than
average summer It was a fairly dry
across the Low- summer nation-
er 48, coming in ally, coming in as
as the 4th warm- the 33rd driest
est out of the summer on re-
last 126 seasons. Cooler Warmer Drier Wetter cord. Precipitation
The most anom- lacked the most
alous heat was Summer 2020 Temperature (left) and Precipitation (right) Ranks. NCEI/NOAA. in the Southwest
across the Four and the Plains. It
Corners, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, and was also rather dry across the southern Great Lakes and
Mid-Atlantic. More seasonable conditions were found upper Ohio Valley, as well as into much of New England.
towards the lower Mississippi Valley. Massachusetts, However, the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic were a bit
Rhode Island, and Connecticut recorded their warm- wetter, partially fueled by tropical impacts from Fay and
est summer on record, with New Jersey, Delaware, Isaias.
Summer 2021 Forecast Overview
Will 2021 bring us an 11th consecutive warmer than av- Another somewhat dry summer appears likely across
erage summer for the U.S? Based on our forecast, it the nation, though much of that dry weather is ex-
is quite likely. The hottest weather is expected to be pected to be focused out west. With many areas al-
focused across the West, and like last summer, we do ready in a drought in the western U.S., another worse
expect a pool of closer to average temperatures near than normal fire season is distinctly possible this
the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Along the East Coast, summer and fall. It will be wetter across much of the
there may be one or two big heat waves, and similar eastern U.S., though the Upper Midwest and northern
to last summer, we expect the mild nights and lack New England are also at risk to occasionally turn dry.
of cool downs to drive the above normal values. Into The upcoming sections provide more details to our
the Midwest and Ohio Valley, June may be the hottest temperature and rainfall forecasts for each month
month relative to normal, with more seasonable tem- this summer.
peratures for the rest of the summer.
Page 2 www.weatherworksinc.com
2021 Summer Forecast
Temperature Outlook
June 2021 Forecast
• A warm June is expected across most of the coun-
try, though the warmth is expected to be most pro-
nounced in the western U.S., especially later in the month.
• Much of the eastern U.S. will likely be warmer than nor-
mal, with the first half of the month favored to see the most
anomalous heat. A few cold fronts likely bring briefly cool-
er weather in late June, especially across New England.
• The central U.S. likely trends hotter through the month, with
periods of slightly cooler weather early on across the Plains.
Precipitation Outlook
• Dry conditions are expected across most of the west-
ern United States, with particularly dry weather in parts
of the northern Rockies, worsening through the month.
• Parts of Florida and perhaps northern New England may also
be a bit dry at times.
• Active weather is likely from the Mississippi Valley on east into
the Ohio Valley and the northern Mid-Atlantic. This may include
some severe weather, especially when fronts interact with the
unseasonable warmth towards the East Coast.
July 2021 Forecast Temperature Outlook
• Overall, July will be another very warm month across the Low-
er 48, with the worst of the heat from the Plains and Upper
Midwest, through the Rockies, and towards the West Coast.
• A trend to more “typical” temperatures is expected across the
Ohio Valley, Southeast, and even the southern Mid-Atlantic,
though humidity levels likely remain uncomfortable.
• New England is expected to remain warm and rather humid,
along with nights that don’t cool off much.
Precipitation Outlook
• The more seasonable temperatures will likely be accompanied
by a wetter pattern from the Ohio Valley and Appalachians into
the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Tropical
development will need to be monitored for increased rainfall.
• The western and central U.S. will generally be on the dry side
again in July, with the least amount of rainfall across the Pa-
cific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern Plains.
• Signs do point to the monsoon ramping up across the Four
Corners, which may bring some needed rainfall to the region.
Page 3 www.weatherworksinc.com
2021 Summer Forecast
Temperature Outlook
August 2021 Forecast
• The trend of overall warmth continues, with the heat focused
out west.
• The pool of “cooler” weather likely shifts west towards the Mis-
sissippi River in August.
• Signs point to both heat and humidity ramping up along the
East Coast. The pattern may not favor big heat waves, but it
looks persistently warm and humid with mild nights.
Precipitation Outlook • Unfortunately, the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies are
unlikely to see much drought relief, with dry weather across
the Plains as well. The monsoon may try to provide some relief
to the Southwest U.S.
• Parts of New England and perhaps the northern Great Lakes
look to trend somewhat drier for the month.
• Frequent rainfall is expected from the Ohio Valley into the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. As we near the peak of hurricane
season, the risk for tropical moisture getting drawn into the
Gulf Coast, Southeast, and perhaps Mid-Atlantic will increase.
Outlook Insights
Drought Concerns La Niña Weakens
In summer, the large-scale weather pattern still helps
to drive temperature and rainfall trends, but it has a
weaker influence than in winter. This means that other,
more localized factors can have a greater affect on the
weather. In summer, dry conditions tend to promote
continued hotter, drier weather. Much of the western
U.S. is in a deep drought, and this is an area that will
likely remain hot and dry this summer. We’ll watch areas
such as the Great Lakes and the Northeast, as some ar-
eas have recently trended drier.
El Niño forecast plumes, courtesy of the ECMWF.
Summers that occur during a La Niña (cooler wa-
ters across the tropical Pacific) tend to favor hot-
ter, somewhat drier summers across the U.S., while
those that occur during an El Niño (warmer waters in
the tropical Pacific) tend to be cooler and wetter. The
La Niña that was in place since last year is weaken-
ing. However, there are no signs of strong El Niño de-
velopment yet, which means there will be either little
Current Drought Monitor. Via USDA/NDMC/NOAA. influence or perhaps some lingering La Niña effects.
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