2021 Industry Outlook - Analysis of how sectors are positioned for recovery - BCCG British Chamber of Commerce ...
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2021 Industry Outlook Analysis of how sectors are positioned for recovery
Introduction to the report
The next normal is…
An unprecedented pace of change is occurring.
This means business leaders are continuously assessing the damage caused
by COVID-19, and quickly taking stock of the opportunities and risks as they
re-calibrate their growth strategies for 2021.
In this report, our insights team have performed a broad analysis of multiple
data points to help form a much clearer picture of how different sectors are
positioned going into 2021. Boris Kovacevic Guillaume Dejean
Some of the sector-by-sector analysis in this study includes data covering FX & Macro Strategist Sr. FX & Macro Strategist
CEE, WUBS France, WUBS
equity market value indicators, employment forecasts, COVID-19 lockdown
resilience assessments, as well as long-term value-added growth forecasts
from our partners at Oxford Economics.
This report combines the above data points from various sources to
provide guidance on questions such as:
• Which sectors have benefited most in 2020?
George Vessey Nawaz Ali
• Which are best placed for 2021 should lockdowns persist? FX & Macro Strategist Head of Market Insights
UK, WUBS Europe, WUBS
• Where could we see acceleration post-pandemic,
looking 3-5 years ahead?
Important note: this report is not intended to give financial advice and should not be relied upon for taking financial decisions.
2
Section 1 Macroeconomic landscape A vaccine matters more than anything else
The world economy is still dependent on a vaccine
1. What will most likely cause interest rates to rise? 3. GDP growth vs. government lockdown stringency
41% Vaccine developments are most 15.0
37% likely to influence policy decisions
10.0 China
Strong inverse correlation: stricter government
5.0 lockdown measures lead to a sharper GDP
11%
decline
5%
2%
Real GDP growth Q2 2020 (% q/q)
0.0
Vaccine Inflation High debt levels Election outcome Oil prices to rise
US
-5.0
2. When will we see an approved distributable vaccine?
-10.0
-15.0 France
Not before 1 April 2022 1%
-20.0
Between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022 1%
Up from 47% seen pre-Pfizer -25.0
UK
Between 1 April 2021 and 30 September 2021 5% announcement
-30.0
Between
Between1 1October
October2020
2020and
and3131March
March2021
202 93% 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
Lockdown stringency index (Q2 average of daily data)
Sources: 1, Bank of America Merill Lynch Asset Manager Survey 2, goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/#1363 - question asked: “When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 25m people be distributed in the US?”
3. Oxford Economics, Western Union Business Solutions – Oct 2020 4
Section 2 2020 analysis Who has outperformed through the pandemic?
2020 share price moves offer vital clues
Analysing the share price performance of equity sectors in both the US & Europe reveal clear patterns – such as the growth of
semiconductors as artificial intelligence adds to demand.
US Europe
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 18% Retailing 14%
Household & Personal Products 15% Health Care Equipment & Services 10%
Top 5
Top 5
Software & Services 11% Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences 9%
Health Care Equipment & Services 10% Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 4%
Commercial & Professional Svs 8% Food & Staples Retailing 3%
Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences 6% Software & Services 3%
Media & Entertainment -1% Household & Personal Products -1%
Materials -2% Materials -3%
Transportations -3% Consumer Durables & Apparel -4%
Capital Goods -5% Consumer Services -4%
Food & Staples Retailing -5% Capital Goods -6%
S&P 500 Index -6% Utilities -9%
Food, Beverage & Tobacco -6% Media & Entertainment -10%
Utilities -7% Stoxx 600 Index -10%
Consumer Durables & Apparel -7% Food, Beverage & Tobacco -11%
Telecommunication Services -9% Telecommunication Services -12%
Diversified Financials -9% Commercial & Professional Svs -12%
Technology Hardware & Equipment -10% Diversified Financials -13%
Automobiles & Components -10% Automobiles & Components -19%
Insurance -21% Real Estate -21%
Bottom 5
Bottom 5
Real Estate -21% Transportations -21%
Consumer Services -24% Insurance -29%
Banks -32% Banks -38%
Energy -56% Energy -44%
Source: Refinitiv, Western Union Business Solutions - data captured on October 29, 2020. Note: YTD share price performance of equity sectors in the US (S&P 500 index) & Europe (Stoxx 600 index) 6
These are the strongest performers of 2020
E-commerce outperformed expectations this year, supported by lockdown measures which
forced more people to shop online
Europe (STOXX 600 Index) US (S&P 500 Index) In 2020, we’ve seen
outperformance
YTD YTD
Rank Company Industry Sub-industry
perf.
Rank Company Industry Sub-industry
perf. across: critical, digital
1 Sinch AB (publ) Software & Services Cloud solutions 180% 1 ETSY Inc Retailing E-commerce 215% services, health & IT
2 Hellofresh SE Retailing Food delivery 153% Semiconductors &
2 NVIDIA Corp Semiconductor Computer games 115%
Evolution Gaming Equipment
3 Consumer Services Online gaming 134%
Group AB (publ)
West Health Care
Pharmaceuticals, Pharmaceutical • Retail: Food & staple
Sartorius Stedim 3 Pharmaceutical Equipment & 86%
4 Biotechnology & Life Biotechnology 120% packaging
Biotech SA Services Inc Services
Sciences • Consumer delivery services
Commercial &
Electronic 4 Rollins Inc Professional Pest control 85% • Retail: E-commerce
5 Adyen NV Software & Services 111%
payment Services • Pharmaceuticals
Health Care 5 L Brands Inc Retailing Fashion retailer 78%
6 Sartorius AG
Equipment & Services
Biotechnology 100% • Health equipment/services
PayPal Holdings Software & • Technology hardware
Renewable 6 Online payment 78%
7 Nel ASA Capital Goods 91% Inc Services
energy • Software
7 FedEx Corp Transportations Delivery services 72%
Ocado Group • Digital payments
8 Retailing Online grocery 81%
PLC Software & Workflow
8 ServiceNow Inc 71%
Services software • Digital media
9 Zalando SE Retailing E-commerce 79%
9 Amazon.com Inc Retailing E-commerce 71% • Freight transportation
Fantasy
Games Workshop Consumer Durables &
10 miniatures 75% Swimming pool
Group PLC Apparel 10 Pool Corp Retailing 71%
manufacturer distributor
Source: Reuters, Western Union Business Solutions – October 29 2020 7
Airlines led the weakest performers of 2020
Face to face people-movement-heavy sectors were the worst affected by some of the
stringent lockdown measures governments had to put in place to counter COVID-19
Europe (STOXX 600 Index) US (S&P 500 Index) In 2020, we’ve seen
underperformance
YTD YTD
Rank Company Industry Sub-industry
perf.
Rank Company Industry Sub-industry
perf. across: Airlines, Brick
International Occidental Hydrocarbon & Mortar Retailing,
1 Energy -78%
1 Consolidated Airlines Transportation Airlines -77% Petroleum Corp exploration
Group SA
Tourism, Oil & Banks
Consumer
2 Carnival Corp Cruise -76%
Consumer Services
2 Carnival PLC Travel leisure -77%
Services
3 TechnipFMC PLC Energy Oil & gas services -75% • Airlines
3 TechnipFMC PLC Energy Oil & gas services -75%
4
Norwegian Cruise Consumer
Cruise -74% • Aerospace
4 Banco de Sabadell SA Banks Financial services -75% Line Holdings Ltd Services
• Automobiles
Network International Software & Diamondback Hydrocarbon
5 Payment solutions -68% 5 Energy -74% • Oil & refinery
Holdings PLC Services Energy Inc exploration
Rolls-Royce Holdings Car & aero-engine Oil & natural gas • Brick & Mortar Retailing
6 Capital Goods -64% 6 Marathon Oil Corp Energy -72%
PLC manufacturer exploration (footwear, apparel,
Hydrocarbon
cosmetics)
7 Societe Generale SA Banks Financial services -63%
7 Apache Corp Energy -70%
exploration • Entertainment
Oil & gas products
8 Royal Dutch Shell PLC Energy -62% (Hospitality/Events/Casino)
& svs Hydrocarbon
8 Devon Energy Corp Energy -68%
exploration
Oil & gas products • Travel/Tourism
9 Repsol SA Energy -61% (Hotels/Restaurants)
& svs National Oilwell Oil & gas
9 Energy -68%
Varco Inc equipments
Oil & gas products • Newspapers/TV media
10 OMV AG Energy -60%
& svs Oil refiner &
10 HollyFrontier Corp Energy -66% • Education - University
distributor
• Banks
Source: Reuters, Western Union Business Solutions – October 29 2020 8
IT and Healthcare have led M&A activity
The shifting deal landscape of US private equity in 2020
These industries have seen
a lot of M&A activity • Information technology and
35 Gross transaction value ($bn) 1750
31.73 healthcare have by far
29.68 Number of deals (ls) 1550 outstripped other sectors when
30
looking across Merger &
1350
Acquisition (M&A) activity.
25
1150
20 19.2 • Real estate and energy have
950
seen the least amount of M&A
750 activity in 2020.
15
550
10
These industries have seen • Energy has in particular faced
8.466 8.34 minimal M&A activity
350 a difficult year due to both the
5.67
5 3.77
COVID demand shock as well
0.82 150 as plummeting oil prices.
1.07 1.01 1
0 -50
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Reuters, Western Union Business Solutions, October 09, 2020 9
Airlines and Entertainment have led job losses
The COVID-19 shock on US employment Entertainment Airlines
-49% Leisure and hospitality
-23%
-28k -22k
-14% Mining and logging
Large part of losses recouped -14%
-10% Federal government
-9%
-23%
Aircraft Automobile
-8% Other services
-8% Local government
-6%
-11% -15k -15k
-6% Education and health services
-11% Professional and business services
-6%
Job losses at peak of crisis -5% Energy (Oil) Retail
-5% State government
(Feb - Apr)
-10% Transporation and warehousing
Job losses (Feb - Sep) -5%
-7%
-5% Wholesale trade -10k -7k
-11% Manufacturing
-5%
-7% Government
-4% Food & Beverages Restaurants
-13% Construction
-4%
-15% Retail trade
-3% -4k -3k
-3% Financial activities
-2%
Source: US Bureau of Labor, Reuters, Western Union Business Solutions – October 29 2020 10UK case study: share of workforce furloughed by sector
All UK sectors have reduced the number of furloughed staff
Share of workforce furloughed Peak share of workforce • The crisis has disproportionately
between 5-18 Oct furloughed in 2020 impacted the workforce, with some
sectors bouncing back quicker
Art & recreation 32 than others, though some share of
Accommodation & food 22 the workforce is still furloughed in
Admin. Services 11 most sectors.
Transport 10
Real Estate 6 • Accommodation & food was one
Manufacturing 4 of the hardest hit during the peak
Prof. services 4 lockdown period, furloughing ~80%
Construction 3 of its workforce, compared to
Communications 3 Health and Education which
Over 90% are no
Wholesale & Retail 3 longer furloughed furloughed ~10%.
Education 3
Water 2 • Construction has staged the
Health 1 biggest recovery though, with only
3% of its staff furloughed in October
Total 7 compared to 46% at its peak,
0 20 40 underlining the demand and
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 necessity for work to continue in
this sector.
% of workforce
Source: ONS Business Impact of COVID-19 Survey, Western Union Business Solutions – November 24 2020 11Section 3 2021 outlook What sectors appear most resilient and future-proof?
Digital services are most resilient to further lockdowns
Sector resilience (and vulnerability) to lockdown measures
Industry Group Sector Ability to work remotely Shut down resilience • Information and financial services
Information High High have a higher ability to work from
home, benefiting from more
Finance High High
advanced digitisation of work
Business Real Estate Medium Medium
practices/cloud migration.
Professional Services High Medium
Management High High • Agriculture ranks low on ability to
Wholesale Medium Medium work remotely as it’s generally site-
Retail Low Low based; however, the outdoor nature
Consumer of work makes it easier to implement
Recreation Low Low
social distancing.
Food and Accommodation Low Low
Agriculture Low Medium • In sectors such as manufacturing,
Mining Low Medium many companies will outperform
Transportation Low Low these indicative rankings. Although
Industrial some may only be able to operate
Utilities Low High
at limited capacity.
Construction Low Medium
Manufacturing Low Low
• Important note: this table provides general
Administrative Low Medium guidance only, and within each sector
Education Medium Medium different companies/industries are
Social/Support responding in different ways to what is a
Social Services/Healthcare Low High highly fluid situation.
Government Medium High
Source: McKinsey, Western Union Business Solutions – October 2020 13US equity analysis helps indicate most attractive sectors
Highly attractive Medium to highly attractive
(cheap + positive earnings growth above (cheap + positive earnings growth below
index average) index average / expensive + positive earnings
growth above index average)
• Pharmaceutical and
Pharmaceuticals,
semiconductor sectors are
30% Biotechnology & Life expecting to deliver high earnings
Sciences Semiconductors &
20%
Health Care
Equipment & Services Semiconductor growth in the next few quarters.
S&P 500 Index Equipment
Food & Staples
FY1 earnings growth (median)
Utilities
10%
Retailing
Food, Beverage & Transportations
Retailing Software & Services • Numerous cyclical sectors, like
Tobacco
energy and banks, were
Technology Hardware & Equipment
0%
Materials Capital Goods
expecting negative earnings
Telecom svs growth due to uncertainty about
-10% Media & Entertainment
the recovery, though recent
-20% positive vaccine news might
Banks
Real Estate
change the outlook.
-30%
• The software services sector looks
-40% expensive currently from a
Energy USA*
-50%
valuation perspective.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
• Important note: this chart provides general
Price-to-book ratio (median) guidance only.
* Displaying the largest US sectors in terms of
Medium to low attractiveness Low attractiveness
market capitalisation within the S&P 500 index.
(cheap + negative earnings growth (expensive + negative earnings growth)
or expensive + positive earnings growth
below index average)
Source: Reuters, Western Union Business Solutions – October 29, 2020. 14EU analysis reaffirms technology sector potential
Highly attractive Medium to highly attractive
(cheap + positive earnings growth above (cheap + positive earnings growth below
index average) index average or expensive + positive
earnings growth above index average)
• Like the US, health care and IT
companies look the most attractive
Pharmaceuticals,
30% Biotechnology & Life in terms of growth potential.
Technology Sciences
Hardware &
20% Telecommunication Stoxx 600
Equipment Health Care • Non-essential consumer sectors like
Index
FY1 earnings growth (median)
Services Equipment & retailing and household durables,
10% Services
Materials Food, Beverage & could be at risk given the possible
Household & Personal Products Software &
0%
Tobacco Services scars left on consumers, such as high
Semiconductors &
Semiconductor Equipment unemployment and weaker
-10%
Utilities Capital Goods purchasing power.
-20% Consumer Durables & Retailing • Food staples and
Apparel
Automobiles &
Components
telecommunication services might
-30%
Banks
continue performing well if
lockdowns are extended this winter.
-40% Energy Transportations
Europe* • Important note: this chart provides general
-50%
0 1 2 3 4 Europe5 6
guidance only.
*Displaying the largest European sectors in terms
Price-to-book ratio (median) of market capitalisation within the Stoxx 600 index.
Medium to low attractiveness
Low attractiveness
(cheap + negative earnings growth
(expensive + negative earnings growth)
or expensive + positive earnings growth
below index average)
Source: Reuters, Western Union Business Solutions – October 29, 2020 15Case studies: companies positively impacted
Sector: E-commerce (& others) Sector: Telecommunication services Sector: Payments
Profile Profile Profile
One of the Big Five companies in US French provider of broadband internet Dutch company offering digital and
(market cap). Considered largest and mobile services. Active operator in mobile payment solutions for merchants.
internet company in the world with a 35 countries and generates revenues of Processed a volume of €240bn
revenue of $280bn (2019). €5.3bn (2019). transactions in 2019 alone.
Covid impact Covid impact Covid impact
In Q2, registered an increase of 40% y/y In Q2, recorded +7% y/y growth in +27% y/y for net revenue and +12% for
growth in net sales and created over revenues (+2% in France/+68% in Italy). EBITDA growth in H1 2020. Payment
175k new jobs between March and June. volumes up 23% y/y.
FY1 earnings growth: +85% FY1 earnings growth: +863% FY1 earnings growth: +78%
Despite already strong results during the The digital era is accelerating through Shifts in the retail economic model from
pandemic, expected to keep benefiting COVID-19. Home office practices could bricks-and-mortar to digital underpin a
from ‘new normal’ in consumption - more become a new global standard. strong growth potential for the company.
internet and less physical location.
Source: Reuters, Western Union Business Solutions – October 29, 2020 16Case studies: companies negatively impacted
Sector: Retail Sector: Events & Entertainment Sector: Manufacturer/Energy
Profile Profile Profile
A 50-year-old US company with 135,000 German promoter selling around 250m Global leader for supplying pipe to the oil
employees and around 3,700 retail stores tickets per year. It represents 3,200 & gas industries. It has 23,000 employees
across the globe (65% in USA). employees and revenues of €1.44bn and represents more than $7bn of net
(2019). sales (2019).
Covid impact Covid impact Covid impact
Near $1bn of losses in 2020 due to -56% y/y fall in revenues recorded in H1 -35% y/y drop in sales and a net loss
the closure of stores. 2020. of $50m in Q2 2020.
FY1 earnings growth: -78% FY1 earnings growth: -88% FY1 earnings growth: -89%
Large restructuring plan including a High uncertainty about when and Under an uncertain and gradual
shutdown of 350 stores in North under what conditions live events will recovery path for the global economy,
America by the end of 2023. come back to normal levels. demand for oil could remain weak.
Source: Reuters, Western Union Business Solutions – October 29, 2020 17Section 4 2029 forecasts What is the future for industry post-pandemic?
IT, Tech dominate 2029 US growth forecasts
2019-2029 value-added growth estimates (US)
IT Programming, consultancy & information services 63% • The US economy is expected to
Telecommunications 47%
grow 17% between 2019 and 2029.
High-tech goods 30%
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries 27%
Pharmaceuticals 24%
• The sole negative outliner can be
R&D, leasing, legal, professional & maintenance services 22% Highest expected
found in the commodity space. This
Real estate activities 21% overperformer Vs. economy could hold true especially with a
Construction 21%
Joe Biden US administration.
Health care & social work 19%
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals 18%
• The overall picture confirms the
Transport & storage services 18%
Whole Economy 17% US Economy as a whole general structural shift away from
is projected to grow 17%
Fuel, chemicals, rubber & plastic 17%
from 2019 to 2029
basic production to the services
Utilities 16% sector.
Consumer goods 15%
Food beverages and tobacco, Textiles 13%
• The lower half is characterised by
Education 13%
Industrial production 13%
industries such as industrial
Financial services 13% production, materials and metal
Engineering & metal goods 9% goods.
Arts, recreation, unions, personal services 6%
Basic metals & metal products 6% • As was the case in the previous
Public administration, defence & social security 4%
decade, IT-related areas are
Accommodation & catering 3%
Lowest expected expected to outperform.
Extraction -6% underperformer Vs. economy
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Source: Oxford Economics, Western Union Business Solutions – October 2020 19Climate change to impact UK industry & extraction
2019-2029 value-added growth estimates (UK)
IT Programming, consultancy & information services 31% • The UK economy is expected to
Real estate activities Highest expected 28% grow 10% between 2019 and 2029.
Telecommunications overperformer Vs. 23%
economy
Business services 19% • The overall picture confirms the
Health care & social work 16%
general structural shift away from
Utilities 11%
Whole Economy 10%
basic production to the services
Financial services 10% UK Economy as a whole sector.
Food, beverages & tobacco 8% is projected to grow 10%
Construction 8% from 2019 to 2029 • In addition to IT-related areas, real
Pharmaceuticals 6%
estate activities are expected to
Transport & storage services 5%
Accommodation & catering 4%
outperform.
Education 3%
Public administration, defence & social security 2% • The lower half is characterised by
Arts, recreation, unions, personal services 1% industries such as industrial and
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries 0%
manufacturing production,
Consumer goods, clothing 0%
High-tech goods -1%
materials and metal goods.
Industrial production -2%
Fuel, chemicals, rubber & plastic -3% • The main negative outliner can be
Publishing & broadcasting activities -3% found in the commodity space.
Manufacturing -4%
Tackling climate change and a
Engineering & metal goods -10%
Extraction -23%
Lowest expected focus on green energy is becoming
underperformer Vs. economy
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
increasingly important.
Source: Oxford Economics, Western Union Business Solutions – January 2021 20Are jobs also set for a dramatic shift in the next decade?
2029 employment growth projections by industry (US)
• Contrary to 2008-09 Financial Crisis,
Health care and social assistance 23%
15% COVID-19 is expected to cause
Educational services 12%
22% higher economic damage in the
Leisure and hospitality 27% short-run, and also very likely
7%
28%
influence long-run trends too.
Professional and business services 7%
Transportation and warehousing 6%
33% • In US, the employment growth
25% momentum for the next decade
Construction 4%
could be far lower than over the
Other services 9%
4% past ten years.
State and local government 0%
2% Past: employment
12% growth 2009-2019 • The crisis will push some sectors to
Financial activities 1%
make a global overhaul of their
Information 2%
0% Future: employment operating process, trying to
Wholesale trade -2%
7% growth projections for combine lower cost and higher
2019-2029
Retail trade 8% (central scenario)
productivity.
-2%
8%
Manufacturing -3% • Faster digitalisation could involve
Nonagriculture self-employed -2% less employment in some sectors
-4%
0%
(retail, wholesale, manufacturing)
Federal government -6%
and more in IT and services.
-20% 0% 20% 40%
Source: US Bureau of Labour Projections, Western Union Business Solutions – October 2020 21In international trade, B2B services expected to accelerate
2025 forecasts – services trade to outpace goods trade in ‘new normal’
• Between 2010 and 2019, the value
World: Services trade by sector Increase in value
of in flows, of global trade in services
(central scenario) 2019-25 increased by around 50%, double
the pace of growth in goods trade.
B2B services +37% B2B services examples:
• Royalty fees/licensing • COVID-19 and the Great
Travel +28% • ICT/Web/Tele- Lockdown has further accelerated
communications growth in digitally deliverable
Transport +23% • Digital marketing services trade. This had led to
• Media faster outsourcing of B2B services in
streaming/Gaming
Financial +32% areas like legal, financial and
• Financial
services/Insurance/Cons
payroll.
ICT services +35% ulting
• Procurement/Sourcing/
• Deliverable B2B, ICT and Financial
Goods distribution Services should contribute an
Public services +19%
• E-commerce/Digital outsized share of growth in services
2019 2025
retail trade, or 62% of the expected
Construction +32%
• E-learning $1.9trn increase in the value of
overall services trade between
0 1 000 2 000 3 000
$ bn
2019 and 2025.
Chart source: Global Services Trade Report by Oxford Economics and Western Union Business Solutions – June 2020
https://business.westernunion.com/en-gb/p/cmp/2020/the-global-trade-services-revolution 22Section 5 Conclusions
Conclusions: short-term summary
Shut Down Resilience YTD Performance M&A Activity
Outperformers Underperformers Outperformers Underperformers Outperformers Underperformers
• Finance • Retail • E-commerce • Transportation • Information/IT • Real estate
• Information/IT • Hospitality/Leisure • Information/IT • Energy • Communications • Energy
• Healthcare • Arts/Recreation • Healthcare • Banks • Healthcare • Materials
Key takeaway 1 Key takeaway 1 Key takeaway 1
• Use of digital sales channels has increased • Companies like TechnipFMC (Energy) in • In the first nine months of 2020,1350+ deals
by 13% in Europe since start of pandemic. Europe have lost ~75% of share price value were done across IT and Healthcare.
since the beginning of the year.
Key takeaway 2 Key takeaway 2 Key takeaway 2
• US Leisure and Hospitality had lost half of its • ETSY (Retail/E-commerce) in the US has • Total value of these deals came to ~$60bn
employment right at the peak of the crisis. seen its share price rise four-fold. – dwarfing the combined total value of
deals in 8 other GICS industries (slide 10).
24Conclusions: long-term summary
Equity Valuations 2029 Employment Forecasts 2029 Growth Forecasts
Outperformers Underperformers Outperformers Underperformers Outperformers Underperformers
• Pharmaceuticals • Energy • Healthcare • Manufacturing • Information/IT • Commodities
• Semiconductors • Automobiles • Educational services • Retail • Telecommunications • Accommodation
& Catering
• Software & Services • Banking • Hospitality/Leisure • Wholesale • High-tech goods
• Public administration
Key takeaway 1 Key takeaway 1 Key takeaway 1
• Energy, Banking and Automobiles all have • Digitalisation could involve less • US Economy is expected to grow 17%
a Price-to-book ratio of close to, or under 1. employment, but more earnings growth. between 2019 and 2029 (central scenario).
Key takeaway 2 Key takeaway 2 Key takeaway 2
• Software & Services and Semiconductors’ • US anticipating >10% employment growth • IT Programming, Consultancy and
valuations appear stretched with Price-to- (2019-2029) across Healthcare and Information services expected to grow >60%
book ratios of over 7. Educational services. - over three times faster than the wider
economy.
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currency conversion. Transaction fees may also apply to transactions other than EDGE Network Payment services. 27Western Union Business Solutions (WUBS) has based Austria Germany Switzerland the opinions expressed in this communication on information generally available to the public. Western In Austria Western Union Business Solutions is a In Germany, Western Union Business Solutions is a In Switzerland, Western Union Business Solutions is a Union Business Solutions makes no warranty business unit of the Western Union Company and division of the Western Union Company and provides division of The Western Union Company. Services in concerning the accuracy of this information and provides services in Austria through Western Union’s services in Germany through Western Union’s wholly- Switzerland are provided by Rüesch International, LLC specifically disclaims any liability whatsoever for any wholly-owned subsidiary, Western Union International owned subsidiary Western Union International Bank (Swiss branch), with a registered place of business at loss arising from trading decisions based on the Bank GmbH (referred to as "Western Union Business GmbH, Germany branch (referred to as “WUBS” or Werdstrasse 2, P.O. Box 2063, 8021 Zurich, Switzerland opinions expressed and information contained in this Solutions"). “Western Union Business Solutions”). (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business communication. Such information and opinions are Western Union International Bank GmbH is registered Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany Solutions”). for general information purposes only and are not in Austria (Vienna Commercial Court, Commercial branch, has a registered place of business at Western Union Business Solutions has based the intended to present advice with respect to matters Registry number FN256184t, Sales Tax Identification Solmsstrasse 18, 60486 Frankfurt am Main, Germany opinions expressed herein on information generally reviewed and commented upon. Number: ATU 61347377), The Icon Vienna (Turm 24), and is a branch of Western Union International Bank available to the public. Western Union Business This communication is not directed to, or intended for Wiedner Gürtel 13, 1100 Vienna, Austria and is GmbH (registered in Austria, Registration Number Solutions makes no warranty concerning the distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a licensed by the Austrian Financial Markets Authority 256184t, Regsistered Office address: Schubertring 11, accuracy of this information and specifically citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, (Finanzmarktaufsicht). 1010 Vienna, Austria). disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, This document has been prepared solely for from trading decisions based on the opinions publication, availability or use would be contrary to informational purposes and does not in any way expressed and information contained herein. Such law or regulation or which would subject WUBS or its create any binding obligations on either party. information and opinions are for general information affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement Relations between you and Western Union Business only and are not intended to present advice with within such jurisdiction. Solutions shall be governed by the applicable terms respect to matters reviewed and commented upon. This communication has been prepared solely for and conditions. No representations, warranties or informational purposes and does not in any way conditions of any kind, express or implied, are made create any binding obligations on either party. in this document. Relations between you and WUBS shall be governed by the applicable terms and conditions provided to you before you undertake any transaction with WUBS. No representations, warranties or conditions of any kind, express or implied, are made in this communication. © 2020 Western Union Holdings Inc. All rights reserved.
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