2021 BFG Q1 Webinar - Please mute your microphone and disable your camera. Thank You - Bouchey Financial Group
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2021 – BFG Q1 Webinar Please mute your microphone and disable your camera. Thank You
Market Performance Recap
Stock Markets YTD 2020
Domestic Large Cap Equity Index 1 6.2% 18.4%
Domestic Small Cap Equity Index 2 12.7% 20.2%
International Developed Equity Index 3 3.5% 7.8%
International Emerging Market Equity Index 4 2.3% 18.7%
Bond & Commodity Markets YTD 2020
U.S. Bonds Index 5 -3.1% 6.8%
Commodity Index6 6.9% -3.1%
1 Russell 1000 Index, 2 Russell 2000 Index, 3 MSCI EAFE Index, 4 MSCI Emerging Markets Index, 5
Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, 6 Bloomberg Commodity Index
BFG Portfolio Tactical Positions
Overweight Underweight
U.S. Equities
International Equities
Technology
High Volatility
Low-Volatility
Dividend Stocks High Yield Debt
Financials
Coronavirus Latest
Fully Vaccinated in U.S. Approaching 35%
Vaccines on the Way?
Outlook for Remainder of 2021
2021 Growth Expected to be Fastest in Nearly 50 years
Months Supply of Existing Single Family Homes
Most Inflation Measures Under Fed’s Target Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Bloomberg. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items (Overall CPI), U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Price Index (Core PCE), U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (PCE Deflator), Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy (Core CPI), 16%
Market Inflation Expectations Have Risen Source: Bloomberg. U.S. Breakeven 10 Year (USGGBE10 Index) and U.S. Breakeven 5 Year (USGGBE05 Index). Daily data as of 1/22/2021.
Job Openings have Rebounded Swiftly
Federal Funds Rate to Remain Low
The Yield Curve Steepens
Stock Valuation Metrics Source: Charles Schwab
Earning Growth Set to Ramp Source: Charles Schwab, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv, as of 4/19/2021.
Thank You Earnings! Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, as of 4/16/2021.
Rising Inflation can be a Positive for Stocks
Dogecoin Market Cap- Bubble?
Recap • The economy is early to mid cycle in this recovery. It will most likely be a hotter and shorter cycle. • Most of the reopening stocks have recovered and the market is now moving to a reflation trend • Inflation from labor costs are the primary concern to inflation lasting longer than expected • Valuation could be moderating but certain assets classes are highly inflated
Tax Tips & Potential Tax Changes
Individual Tax Proposal
• Individuals with AGI above $400k
▪ Top marginal rate increase from 37% to 39.6%
▪ Subject to ordinary tax rates on LT cap gains
• Eliminate SALT deduction cap but impose
phase out for higher incomes
• Increase in child tax credit from $2k to
$3k and $3,600 for children under 6Corporate Tax Proposal • Increase in rate from 21% to 28% but possibility of middle ground at 25% • Eliminate QBI 20% deduction for those with over $400k AGI • Tax Incentives/Credits to keep business and jobs in the US • Tax Penalties for moving operations and jobs overseas
New York State Recent Changes
• Individual top tax rate was 8.82%
▪ AGI >$2.155M increased to 9.65%
▪ Two new tax brackets added:
– AGI> $5M increased to 10.3%
– AGI> $25M increased to 10.9%
• Corporate Franchise Tax 6.5% to 7.25%
• Optional pass-through entity tax 6.85%
to 10.9% (S-Corps & Partnerships) &
offsetting personal income tax creditEstate Tax Proposal
• Increase Fed estate tax rate 40% to 45%
• Reduce current Fed estate tax
exemption of $11.7M per person
▪ Due to sunset to $5M 2017 level Dec 2025
▪ Proposal to reduce now or to $3.5M 2009
exemption with $1M lifetime gift exemption
• Possible repeal of basis step-up in
estates over $2.5MTax Planning Strategies • Gifting - $15,000 per person, gifting to a 529 Plan, utilizing trusts • Donating to charity ▪ Utilizing RMDs for Qualified Charitable Dist. ▪ Appreciated stock to a donor advised fund • Review current retirement funding strategies ▪ Are you maximizing your tax deferred savings ▪ Does a Roth strategy make sense
Disclosure Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.. Please remember to contact Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd., in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services. Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd. is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.
Q&A
Follow-up Questions please contact us at:
Office Phone: 518-720-3333
Email Contact: planningpaysoff@Bouchey.comYou can also read
