2018 INDONESIA BANKING SURVEY TECHNOLOGY SHIFT IN INDONESIA IS UNDERWAY - FEBRUARY 2018 - PWC
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2018 Indonesia Banking Survey David Wake Financial Services Leader PwC Indonesia “ Technology, technology, technology. This is the recurring theme coming out of our 8 th Indonesia Banking Survey. Respondents said technology is the #1 driver of business transformation and the top risk to the industry. Transactions through digital channels are surpassing traditional branches in Indonesia for the first time. The war for talent is strongest for technology specialists. Lucy Suhenda Indonesia Banks are trying to keep pace with this change: only 8% of respondents said Banking Leader their bank has the same strategy as they did 18 months ago. Almost half have significantly PwC Indonesia changed their strategy in that time period. 9 out of 10 are undergoing some form of a cost reduction program, and the most common approach to reducing operational risk is automation. The outlook is improved for 2018 over last year, but cautiously so. Concerns about credit risk and net interest margins are subsiding, and there are improved expectations for profitability. There will be winners and losers in this rapidly changing environment. We see areas where Indonesia banks need to take more action – clarity of strategy, a greater focus on customer centricity, driving strategies through to execution, and investing further in systems and risk management to move from a moderate to high level of preparedness. We thank all of our respondents to our 2018 survey and trust it will be a helpful catalyst to stimulating dialogue for the betterment of Indonesia banks and the industry as a whole.
Areas of Insight Outlook Transformation Risk Conditions and Profitability Drivers of Transformation State of Play Margins Disruption Preparedness and Response Credit Risk and Loan Growth Strategy Considerations PSAK 71 Opportunities Customer Experience Opportunities 3
Takeaways Expected NPL decline, but Net Interest Margin Cautious optimism concerns on credit risk are still optimism may be high overestimated More effective steps to Loan growth driven by More merger & acquisition activity improve competitiveness consumer lending expected are needed 5
Cautious optimism Measures to improve competitiveness falling short of expectations Mixed views on extent of improvement in 2018, with those from local banks again being the most positive In 2015, the government launched a This is an important component of series of new initiatives to stimulate the Indonesia building its competitiveness Q What is your view of Indonesia’s market conditions for Banking in 2018, compared to 2017? economy and improve the ease of doing for an open ASEAN market. On the improving same worse business. Last year, respondents felt the positive side, two-thirds of respondents 55% 41% 43% actions were positive but views were feel banks are “somewhat prepared” for mixed on the likely direct impact to their an open market. Those from foreign business. Bankers now feel the actual banks are perhaps most well positioned Local impact did not meet expectations. Only to reflect on this question, given they Foreign 3% felt a significant impact (compared to have operations across the region - 18% expected), and 60% in fact reported they were less optimistic with 42% no noticeable impact at all. Where there feeling that Indonesia banks were % forecasting was benefit, it appears to be felt more unprepared. improved market conditions strongly among state-owned banks: 67% feeling a moderate or significant impact 67% compared to only 29% of other banks. 42% Few bankers believe Indonesia banks are very prepared for an open ASEAN market Source: 2018 PwC Indonesia Banking Survey Q How well prepared are banks in Indonesia to compete in an open ASEAN market? The outlook is improved, with most Like last year, respondents from bankers feeling conditions will be foreign banks do not share the State-owned Other banks the same or better than in 2017. same level of optimism as from This is similar to a year ago, local banks, who are 50% more Very 10% however that was coming off a likely to expect better 89% Somewhat 52% difficult 2016. Given that conditions. Having said that, we profitability already improved see almost no views that 11% Unprepared 38% across the sector in 2017, this new conditions will worsen. outlook could be viewed as an Source: 2018 PwC Indonesia Banking Survey overall improvement year-on-year.
Moderate profit improvement expected in 2018 CEOs across Asia are optimistic about global Following the trend in 2017, respondents from local banks are economic growth much more optimistic than foreign bank counterparts. Q (2018 PwC 21st CEO Survey) Do you believe global economic growth will improve, stay Q What is your expectation for your Bank’s Net Income in 2018? the same, or decline over the next 12 months? +113% Increase from i Chart shows percentage of Asia CEO respondents answering ‘improve’. 2017 to 2018 75% 8% 41% All 83% 11% State owned 60% 89% Local private 21% 13% 58% 8% Foreign 45% 45% Decrease Same Moderate Significant increase increase Source: PwC 2018 Indonesia Banking Survey 83% of bankers surveyed expected at a confidence on continued profitability in least a moderate increase in net income 2018, albeit not a significant increase for 28% in 2018. With loan growth falling below most players. 27% expectations in 2017, the improvement in profitability for many banks last year Respondents from foreign banks are 20% 19% was largely driven by a reduction in less optimistic with more than one-third provisions for loan losses. In our not expecting an improvement in conversations with CEOs, we note an profitability for 2018. improved sentiment on credit risk and 7 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: PwC 21st CEO Survey
Most banks expect a stable or increasing NIM in 2018 Only one-third of Indonesia bankers expect a Will NIM hold steady in the short and Net Interest Margin (“NIM”) decrease in 2018 mid-term? Q What is your expectation for changes in your Bank’s Net Interest Margin for 2018 only? Last year there was a clear shift towards an Larger banks were more likely expectation of declining NIM, and in fact it did decline on average about 30 – 50 basis to expect a decline in NIM in 54% points. For 2018, concerns on NIM decline the mid-term 50% have subsided with only one-third of bankers 47% expecting a relatively small decline. Even Q What is your expectation for changes in your Bank’s Net Interest Margin for the Cumulative NIM change over next more, one-third expect a NIM increase in the 4 years 2018-2021? coming year. 40% BUKU 4 83% When viewed over a longer horizon of the BUKU 3 71% 34% 35% next 4 years, 63% expect some decline, but 32% BUKU 45% 30% 31% again, mostly for a mild decline of 1-50 basis 1&2 28% 29% 27% points. A further 20% expect an increase in 0-50 bps 51-100 bps 101-150 24% NIM over the next 4 years. Foreign banks and decline decline bps decline 23% larger BUKU 3&4 banks are less optimistic but most still view the 4-year decline as being Source: 2018 PwC Indonesia Banking Survey 16% less than 50 bps. Same 37% of respondents do not expect NIM to decrease through 2021, and most of those Increase are smaller banks that are more exposed to a Decrease NIM decline due to smaller economies of 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 scale and higher cost-income ratios. We continue to highlight that this is a risk to the Source: PwC Indonesia Banking Survey (2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018) overall sector, particularly if there is a Base: All respondents convergence of negative cycles at the same 8 time – NIM decline, slower loan growth, increased credit risk and higher operating costs.
We see a downward direction for NIM over the mid and long term PwC View Over the mid-term we expect a further decline NIM 12 month rolling average Mild mid-term NIM decline expected in NIM across the sector due to a range of Q What is your expectation for changes in your Bank’s Net Interest Margin for the factors: Net interest margin – rolling 12 month average (all banks) cumulative NIM change over the next 4 years 2018 to 2021? • Increased competition 6.6% % of Banks expecting a NIM decrease – next 4 years • Government focus on lowering the cost of 6.4% BUKU 4 51 bps banking to consumers, and increasing 6.2% Local State- economic growth 6.0% Foreign Private owned • Stable or declining inflation 5.8% • Improved country risk 5.6% All Banks 28 bps • Inelastic deposit rates 5.4% • Growth in consumer loans, particularly 5.2% 0-50 bps mortgage loans 5.0% Dec-15 Oct-16 Dec-16 Oct-17 Dec-17 Apr-16 Aug-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Jun-16 Jun-17 Feb-16 Feb-17 • Increased focus by banks on cost management and cost-income ratios Source: OJK statistics, PwC Analysis 50% NIM trends on their own do not give the full Given the growth environment, our advice to picture of bank profitability. Banks with higher most banks in Indonesia is to focus on cost 50-100 bps 61% risk in their asset portfolio – and who have and a lean environment – however, not solely priced in that risk - will necessarily have for cost sake, but for using those savings to > 100 bps higher NIM. Nevertheless, we believe that invest in other areas. “Cut 10 to spend 10” 79% while there will be smaller ups and downs and a Fit for Growth strategy will position over the next 5 years, the ‘bouncing ball’ is in banks to take advantage of the market Source: 2018 PwC Indonesia Banking Survey a downward direction.. potential while not sacrificing on profitability 9
Overall loan growth improved, but sluggish Small increase in overall estimated loan growth in 2018 Q What is your Bank’s target for loan growth for 2018? It was only a few years ago that fewer than Credit risk still the top half of respondents even put credit risk in the top-3 list of challenges. That grew steadily challenge to growth until 2017 when almost all bankers had it in Q What are the top 3 challenges for achieving > 20% 13% your loan growth in 2018? their list of top challenges. This has not Chart shows % of respondents noting Credit Risk as a top-3 changed significantly in 2018. i concern 16-20% 13% 2018 91% 11-15% 38% While concern on credit risk has slightly subsided, concerns on Margin Pressure have 2017 94% 6-10% 30% increased. In 2017, Margin Pressure was the 2015 67% 0-5% #1 challenge to growth by 18% of bankers. 2014 49% 6% This is now up to 29%. As margins decline, 2013 24% more pressure is put on profitability and the 2017 level Source: PwC 2018 Indonesia Banking Survey efficiency of the organisation becomes a Base: All respondents bigger factor in the bank’s ability to be competitive on pricing or to invest for growth. Margin pressure is Based on responses, we estimate an Additionally, credit risk is still very increasingly a top In fact, for respondents from larger BUKU 3&4 challenge increase in loan growth of between 2 high on the list of challenges to banks Margin Pressure was equal to Credit to 3 percentage points. While there growth, hardly moving from its top Risk as the overall #1 challenge to loan Q What are the top 3 challenges for achieving are clearly more robust plans for position from last year. We also see growth (35% each). As noted earlier, the your loan growth in 2018? growth in the mid-range of 10 to 15% some increased concern about weak larger banks are 70% more likely to expect a Chart shows the highest rated challenge to growth noted by (38% in 2018 vs 27% in 2017), there demand. Overall 30% of bankers i respondents decline in NIM in both 2018 and beyond. were also fewer bankers at the top noted this as a Top-3 concern last end of the range (loan growth greater year, and this is now up to 47%. This Smaller BUKU 1&2 banks were instead more Credit risk 44% than 20%). is especially higher amongst the concerned about Credit Risk as the main Margin 29% pressure larger BUKU 3 and BUKU 4 banks challenge (52%). Weak demand 15% (60%) that drive a lot of the nominal 10 loan growth. Source: PwC Indonesia Banking Survey (2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018) Base: All respondents, composite calculation on respondent views on commercial and consumer lending growth
Concern about weak demand is also higher Weak Demand is increasingly noted by bankers as a Top-3 challenge Chart shows % of respondents noting Weak Demand as a top-3 concern i Concerns about weak demand are also higher year-on-year, noted now as a 2018 47% top-3 challenge by 47% of banks. 2017 30% BUKU 3&4 respondents were more likely to note weak demand as the #1 challenge compared to smaller banks 67% (22% vs 8%). BUKU 4 BUKU 3 56% This may be a reflective of overall BUKU 1&2 weaker demand in the economy, but 35% may also reflect tightened loan underwriting standards by banks over the last 18 months. Source: PwC Indonesia Banking Survey (2017, 2018) Base: All respondents, composite calculation on respondent views on commercial and consumer lending growth 11
Stronger, consistent expectations of NPL decline Our 2015 survey revealed significant Overall the respondents believe that the Another significant shift downward in expected concern about rising NPLs at that time. worst is behind Indonesia banks in terms NPLs for 2018 This began to reverse in 2017, but with a of NPLs. However, with credit risk still first large number of bankers still unsure about and foremost on the minds of bankers Q What is your expectation on the overall level of non-performing loans in your Bank in 2018 whether NPLs had bottomed out. The when it comes to loan growth, the outlook for 2018 is a growing confidence, challenge will be whether credit risk Decreasing NPL Increasing NPL with now two-thirds of respondents management has improved to a level 65% 2018 13% forecasting NPLs to decrease. Of those better able to manage risk as loan growth expecting a decrease, one-third expect it slowly increases. This is a point that we 45% 2017 16% to decline by more than 25%. noted in our prior year survey and believe it is equally applicable to 2018 – 17% 2015 47% Local banks continue to be slightly more economic stress clearly plays its part in optimistic than foreign banks, but we did the cost of credit, but is the industry better not note the same degree of disparity in prepared now than it was 2 years ago to 2018 views we noted last year. The most manage risk? We explore this further in significant year-on-year change in views 72% State/BPD later sections of our survey. is from foreign banks. Last year only 28% 61% Local private were expecting a decrease in NPLs, and that has now more than doubled to 58%. 58% Foreign 21% 80% Syariah 20% Source: PwC Indonesia Banking Survey (2016, 2017, 2018) 12
Most NPL concern is concentrated on corporate loans and large SME Corporate loans by-far still the area of most concern to Indonesia banks Q Which area provides the most concern to your Bank in terms of potential There is no significant change in the main Apart from BPD banks, the concern regarding NPLs in 2018? driver of NPLs – it remains corporate lending. consumer lending NPLs is comparatively very Areas of most NPL concern Consumer lending is much less of a concern, low, even more than in 2017. with the exception of smaller BPD banks. Corporate/ Consumer/ SME Micro NPL ratios in the consumer segment are low Commercial Retail Among bank groups: by comparison to other emerging markets, and we expect over time to see more State-owned 50% 12% 38% SOE banks – results are consistent with our sensitivity to the credit risk in this segment as 2017 survey. activity and growth intensifies. Local private – concern over SME lending Local private 56% 33% 11% has grown slightly, with it being now the #1 concern among one-third of respondents. Foreign – As we can see, foreign banks Foreign 79% 13% continue to be wary of the NPL risk in corporate loans disproportionately to other banks. This may partly be due to the fact that many foreign banks, particularly foreign BPD 40% 50% 10% branches, have a higher proportion of such loans compared to local banks. BPD – there is a much larger concern noted on consumer/retail loans, but this is reflective also of the nature of the BPD portfolios in comparison to larger banks. 13
No significant change in corporate lending growth expectations Little change in expectation for year-on-year corporate loan growth. Smaller banks are more bullish. Q What is your Bank’s target for loan growth in 2018 for commercial/corporate/large SME? 2017 2018 Bankers expecting greater than 10% corporate loan growth 12% > 20% 9% BUKU 1&2 BUKU 3&4 12% 16-20% 13% 32% 11-15% 37% 80% 46% 32% 6-10% 38% 11% 0-5% 3% 1% Negative Local banks Foreign banks 66% 43% Source: PwC Indonesia Banking Survey (2017, 2018) 14
And challenges continue in terms of credit risk On the whole, estimates for corporate loan Last year we noted that there was very little growth are essentially flat year-on-year. While correlation between expectations of loan there was a slight increase noted among growth and expectations of NPL levels. This is some respondents, statistically it was still the case for those expecting lower levels insignificant. We believe this is driven by of growth – in fact, 65% of respondents who continued concerns about loan quality and have more moderate expectations for tightened credit underwriting standards. 2017 Corporate loan growth (less than 10%) was below expectations for many bankers, actually also expected NPLs to decrease in and therefore although the survey result is 2018. essentially the same year-on-year, this is indicative of a view that there will be some For those expecting higher growth (greater slight increase comparative growth in 2018. than 15%), there was indeed some correlation in that 71% of those bankers also expected Estimated corporate loan growth is much NPLs to decline. However, we note that this is higher among smaller banks, with 80% influenced by state-owned banks who are expecting growth in excess of 10% compared bullish on loan growth and positive on NPL to only 46% of larger banks. It is not clear decline for each of the last 2 years. what is driving that optimism. Foreign banks are also more cautious compared to local banks where 50% more local bank respondents expect corporate loan growth in excess of 10%. 15
Consumer lending expected to lead loan growth in 2018 Consumer loan growth is projected to be As the market heats up in consumer Sharp increase in bankers expecting more than stronger in 2018 than in 2017. Last year lending – particularly unsecured lending – 10% growth in consumer lending 57% of respondents expected loan our question for the industry is whether growth in excess of 10%. This year, that banks have the necessary robust Q What is your Bank’s target for loan growth in 2018 for Consumer? has expanded to 71%. systems and data analytics to price and monitor risk appropriately. While that was 2017 2018 In 2017 the broad increase in NPLs had not the focus of our survey, we believe the effect of putting a premium on 22% > 20% 17% there is a risk that many banks have collateralized lending such as mortgages. growth ambitions in consumer lending 14% 16-20% 14% We now see an increased interest in all that are not equally matched by their consumer categories for 2018. Clearly investment in risk management 22% 11-15% 40% mortgages is still the main focus, but preparedness. 32% 6-10% 20% overall we expect a higher level of competition across all consumer 11% 0-5% 9% segments. 3.21 Q Which product(s) are you principally targeting to drive growth in consumer loans at your Bank in 2018? Products targeted to drive growth Mortgage 63% Cards 29% Unsecured 27% Auto 25% 2017 Micro 19% 2018 16 Source: PwC Indonesia Banking Survey (2017, 2018)
Local banks in particular are focused on growth in retail lending Both large and small banks When we additionally analyse the During that time, NPLs on consumer Credit risk is still a challenge respondents who expect particularly high lending have also increased but are still plan strong growth in growth – defined as greater than 15% - to growth but margin comparatively very low. The question to consumer lending we see that 43% of smaller BUKU 1&2 be asked is whether Indonesia banks pressure is on the rise. banks expect such growth. That is twice have applied lessons learned, and Q What is your Bank’s target for loan growth in 2018 for Q What are the top 3 challenges for achieving your loan Consumer? the level of larger banks that expect high invested or will invest more heavily into growth in 2018? growth. Smaller banks tend to be less their credit risk management in terms of Chart shows the top challenge to growth noted by respondents i Bankers expecting greater than advanced in their data analytics and we retail lending as well. highlight that the new requirements of 10% consumer loan growth PSAK 71 (“incurred loss” provisioning #1 challenge to Consumer loan growth BUKU 1&2 BUKU 3&4 model to “expected loss” model) will add additional burden in this respect. Credit risk We note again that the challenge in a 72% 77% high growth environment for consumer lending will be whether banks are 43% Margin prepared not only on the front-end sales pressure channel, but also with respect to robust Foreign banks Local banks lending scorecards, data-analytics, collection and overall risk management Weak 31% systems. As corporate loan NPLs grew in demand 11% 42% 85% the last 2 years, many Indonesia banks realized that there was more to be done 2018 in improving their credit risk 2017 management of corporate lending. Source: PwC 2018 Indonesia Banking Survey 17
Growth through M&A: Increased likelihood over next 2-3 years What we see this year is an increase in the number of bankers Local and state-owned banks more likely to be acquisitive considering M&A as a tool for growth, moving up from 46% to 60%. Q How likely are you to use M&A as a tool to achieve strategic objectives in the next 2 to 3 years? Among the large SOE banks and local banks, the likelihood is even stronger with between 70% and 100% expecting M&A. However, one should note that the number of bankers in the “Very likely” category is Very unlikely or somewhat unlikely to use M&A Very or somewhat likely to use M&A still relatively low at 14% of all respondents. 40% 2018 60% The drivers for M&A also vary among bank groups: State-owned banks look more to the opportunity for corporate synergies, while Foreign and 54% 2017 46% Local private banks focus more on expanding business channels. In the prior year we noted that M&A activity was sluggish and this may 2018 have been due to many willing buyers but not many willing sellers. While 100% State it is still to early to extrapolate, we see many banks having re-evaluated 20% Syariah 80% their strategies in the last 18 months, seeking to focus on their core strengths. This may be a catalyst for further M&A in the future. 27% Local private 73% 3.21 54% Foreign 46% Key differences in drivers for M&A 70% BPD 30% by type of bank Q If somewhat or very likely, what is the primary driver to use M&A? Source: PwC Indonesia Banking Survey (2017, 2018) Expand business channels Corporate synergies 9% State-owned 64% 45% Foreign 27% 18 38% Local private 31%
Growth through Syariah and Infrastructure: Little perceived change year on year Less optimism on future Syariah market share Syariah banking assets stand at Plans for infrastructure finance were growth than in 2017 approximately 5% of total banking assets relatively unchanged from 2017. There is in Indonesia. With the largest Muslim still a strong interest to participate. Q Syariah banking is currently approximately 5% of banking sector assets in Indonesia. What is your population in the world, many are looking forecast for this percentage in the industry by 2025? We noted that the expected involvement at the opportunity to grow Islamic finance Estimated Syariah market share by 2025 at a faster rate than the conventional is significantly higher for state-owned market. However, in our survey most banks than for foreign banks. Given that 2017 2018 bankers felt that the Syariah banking the government has acknowledged that > 15% share over the next 8 years would either foreign investment is essential to meet stay the same or just slightly higher. Only the country’s needs, especially in 14% 11-15% 17% 22% of respondents expected it to reach infrastructure development, we believe 53% 6-10% 39% the levels equal to the government’s 2023 this gap is something that will need to be ambition of 15%, of which two-thirds were addressed by the government, the 28% Same (5%) 40% industry and stakeholders. from state-owned banks. The same expectation on involvement in infrastructure finance as in 2017 Is there a level playing field in infrastructure finance? Q What is your expectation for your bank’s lending or involvement with infrastructure finance in Q What is your expectation for your bank’s lending or involvement with infrastructure finance in Indonesia in the next year? Indonesia in the next year? Expected Infrastructure Finance State-owned 84% 2017 2018 Foreign 54% 15% Significantly more 20% 46% Somewhat more 45% 27% Same 28% 19 12% Less 7%
Transformation 20
Takeaways Technology still the main Technology spending is focused Many digital strategies driver of business on the customer front-end lack sufficient clarity transformation State-owned bank Transactions through digital Opportunities to improve footprint is getting channels are surpassing Customer Analytics bigger, and bigger traditional branches 21
Technology continues to drive business transformation in 2018 Focus is on front-end customer platforms Technology the #1 driver of business transformation Tech spending is most focused on front-end systems Q What is the primary focus of your technology spending? Q What will be the main drivers of transformation in your banking business for the next 3 to 5 years? Front end Core system Back office 46% 44% 44% 33% 43% 34% 25% 17% 13% 11% 11% 14% Foreign Foreign Foreign State-owned Local private State-owned Local private Local private State-owned 6% Changing Operational Risk Technology customer Competition Competition Regulation Excellence management needs What is noteworthy for 2018 is the Apart from front-end technology, rising importance of changing state-owned banks are also focused customer needs, which is driving on core systems, while other banks In our prior year survey, 84% of bankers banks to rethink how they do more on the back-office. Foreign surveyed were likely to invest in technology business. This was noted as the #1 bankers were also more likely to transformation in the next 18 months. The driver for transformation by one-third invest in risk management systems priority on technology continues with it still of respondents, up from 17% in (42% noting it as a top-3 priority vs being the #1 driver of business transformation 2017. The customer-centric focus is 22% from state-owned banks). in Indonesia banks. evident also in that most banks are directing their tech spending to front- Source: PwC Indonesia Banking Survey (2017, 2018) end web/app/e-banking systems. Source: PwC 2018 Indonesia Banking Survey
Transactions through digital channels surpassing traditional branches For the first time in our survey, This migration to mobile and What is the future of the traditional branch? mobile and internet has taken internet is nothing new. But over the top channel spot for the pace of the change in Q What is your estimate of the proportion of the customers’ transactions which were processed through branch, customer transactions. Indonesia is significant to internet/mobile and ATM? Traditional branches no longer note. That change is most % of respondents noting > 50% of dominate the transactional swift among the larger BUKU transactions in the following channels landscape as it did only 3 3&4 banks. In last year’s years ago. survey, 53% of those bankers estimated that more than one- 75% In 2015, only 10% of quarter of their transactions respondents noted that more are via mobile and Internet. Traditional than 50% of their transactions That number is now up to branch are processed via mobile or 75%. The shift among smaller internet banking. This is now banks is occurring but more more than one-third of slowly (42% to 52%). respondents. In 2015, 27% from our survey said at least It is true that for many banks 45% one-fourth of transactions even though the volume of were via mobile & internet. transactions is lower, the 35% This is now up to 67% of value of transactions through 31% respondents. In fact, even the branch is still high. ATM transactions are However, we believe that the Digital approaching the level of pace of technology change channels 22% traditional branches (though a and move to a more cashless 20% difficult measure given that society will drive change in 15% ATM many ATMs are ‘in-branch’). that respect as well. 10% 23 2015 2016 2017 2018
Expected Fintech disruption is mild for 2018 but picks up substantially over the next 5 years For 2018, only 6% of respondents anticipate a Fintech disruption anticipated over the next 5 years significant disruption from Fintech. However, Q What is the level of risk that your bank’s business will be disrupted by new Fintech competition in the market in 2018 when viewed over a 5 year horizon that and over the next 5 years? number jumps to 28%, with a further 52% expecting a moderate disruption. Expected disruption to business from Fintech Respondents from larger banks feel even In 2018 Over next 5 years stronger that disruption is coming: 41% expect significant disruption over the next 5 6% Significant 28% years compared to only 19% from smaller banks. 32% Moderate 52% 51% Some 18% Our survey did not differentiate the types of Fintech: peer to peer lending, blockchain, 8% None process automation, etc. However, there is clearly a recognition that technology is a Don’t know game changer. Despite the views on Fintech disruption over Over next 5 years the next 5 years, Fintech investment was still relatively low among technology investment BUKU 1 & 2 BUKU 3 & 4 for Indonesia banks in 2018. Only 22% of 19% Significant 41% bankers listed Fintech in their top-3 areas for investment in the coming year. 52% Moderate 52% 29% Some 7% 24
However, challenges remain in terms of needed clarity on strategy Digital strategies are in need of further clarity Q How clear is your bank’s digital strategy for reaching and transacting with customers on digital platforms such as Half of respondents from foreign and One interesting result is that despite the mobile, internet, smart phone, etc? larger SOE banks felt their digital rapidly changing environment in terms of strategies were ‘very clear’. This technology, mobile banking, Fintech, % who feel their tech strategy is “Very Clear” compares to only 21% for all other robotic process automation, AI, etc, most Foreign 50% respondents, indicating much room for bankers in Indonesia feel their current improvement across the sector. On the technology is as ready to meet future State-owned 50% other hand, only 11% felt their strategies needs as it is to meet the current needs. Local private 22% were unclear. Results were almost This does not seem consistent with the identical to those in our 2017 Survey. views expressed about clarity of digital BPD 20% strategies. We noted a strong correlation between Syariah 20% the clarity of the digital strategy and the Respondents also noted that technology extent to which a respondent felt their skills were the hardest to find in the bank was prepared for the future. Among market (43% noting as scarce or limited). Moderate feeling of technology preparedness those that felt ‘very prepared’, 73% also Therefore at a time when it is critical to felt the strategy was very clear. Among have sharp strategies and Q How well prepared is your Bank’s technology to meet the needs of your current, and future, banking business and those that felt only ‘somewhat prepared’, implementation, skills are also difficult to customers in Indonesia? the level of strategy clarity dropped to find and retain. 30%. Somewhat Preparedness of IT to meet current and future needs Very These results can be reflective of a lack or very prepared Somewhat prepared unprepared of strategy, or a good strategy that is Current 28% 62% 11% simply not well understood across the organisation. We note also that our Future 17% 66% 17% survey respondents are from among top management of banks. A wider selection of bank employees may have any even lower level of clarity on strategy, making it 25 difficult to implement effectively.
State-owned banks are getting bigger…and bigger Who is growing or State-owned banks are most optimistic about shrinking their footprint? conditions for 2018, and this shows in their plans Expansion Reduction for expansion - more than two-thirds are Q In 2018, what are your plans for growth in the expanding both branches and employees, while following areas? almost none indicate plans for reduction. This is State- Local State- Local particularly the case with respondents from BPD Reduction No growth Growth owned Foreign private owned Foreign private banks, of which 90% expect growth. 67% Respondents from local private banks were also 61% bullish, albeit not quite to the degree of state- owned banks. 50% 44% Branches On the opposite end of the spectrum were 31% Foreign bank respondents – half are expecting a 25% reduction in the number of branches and only 17% 12% expected the number to increase. These 12% trends were noted in our 2017 Survey: state- 5% owned banks and local banks are more aggressively growing their footprint and getting bigger in the process. 72% There appear to be two very different strategies at play. Among respondents from state-owned 51% and local private banks expecting higher loan Employees 50% 42% growth (more than 10%), only 11% expect a 33% reduction in branches. This number is 69% from 26% Foreign banks expecting the same growth. 23% 17% Foreign banks are less bullish on loan growth, but where they are, they are seeking to do so 6% with a smaller branch footprint, and are investing in automation and digital capabilities.
Fit for Growth: “Cut 10 to spend 10” There are a number of reasons why In other words, to be successful, A strong perceived need for cost reduction within banks may take different strategies in Indonesia banks are not only growth environment terms of growing their physical branch addressing investment for growth, but network: knowledge of the local market, also how to reduce cost to make as Q How do you feel about your Bank’s cost levels in order to be able to compete in the market and meet your Bank’s growth and/or profitability goals? region or customer base; different much of that investment as possible product focus (e.g., affluent vs mass market); ambitions to grow market In our Fit for Growth approach, we Cost are competitive share vs a more short-term focus on recommend organisations to focus on or an advantage Cost reduction needed doing three things consistently and BUKU profitability, etc. continuously: 26% 1&2 74% However, as we can see from the survey, there are two dynamics 1. Focus on a few differentiating 24% 3 76% impacting all banks in Indonesia: a capabilities 42% 4 58% growth environment, and a rapid take- 2. Align their cost structure to these up of digital channels requiring new capabilities investment and a reconfigured cost base. This is driving banks across the 3. Organize for growth Q Is your Bank currently undergoing a review of costs or a program to improve efficiency? market to be sharper on cost to free up investment capital. This is the case for It means to have resources, and thus Banks undergoing a cost reduction program many bankers more aggressively cost structure, aligned to the company’s expecting branch expansion as well; overall strategy – deployed toward the e.g., 61% of respondents from State- right businesses, initiatives, and 93% of respondents are owned banks expect cost reduction. In capabilities to execute the growth undergoing a cost reduction or fact an overwhelming 93% of agenda effectively. Fit for Growth 93% efficiency program respondents to our Survey said their companies have the right amount of organization is undergoing a review of resources they need to compete costs or a program to improve effectively – no more, no less – at the efficiency. right places. 27
Significant change in strategies over the last 18 months, needing more clarity Strategies are changing: 45% of Indonesia bank strategies are Strategies need more clarity in the respondents noted a significant change in actively being re-evaluated organisation strategy during the last 18 months. In fact, only 10% of respondents have the same Q How has your strategy changed over the last 18 months? Q What do you feel is the level of clarity and understanding of your strategy to people in your organisation? strategy as they did only 18 months ago. However, overall only 30% of bankers felt Modified strategies in the last Level of clarity of strategy throughout 18 months the organization their strategy was well understood throughout the organization. This varies BUKU BUKU 1&2 3&4 from a high of 63% among larger SOE 94% banks down to only 10% among BPD 87% 90% 30% 80% bankers. 62% High Moderate Low Extent to which there is a high level of clarity of strategy State-owned 63% 2017 2018 2017 2018 Foreign 45% Significant change Local private 17% Moderate change BPD 10% 28
Insights: How can Indonesia banks be more successful in driving their strategies to execution? Winning companies close the strategy-to-execution gap with five acts of unconventional leadership Commit to an identity: You are what you do, not what you sell Translate the strategic into the everyday: Build your own 5 Shape your future distinctive greatness 4 Cut costs to grow stronger $ Put your culture to work: Make it your greatest asset 3 Put your culture to work Cut costs to grow stronger: Stop cutting across the board. Invest in unique capabilities 2 Translate the strategic into the everyday Shape your future: Focus on what you do best to own your own future 1 Commit to an identity “ Companies that commit to the 5 acts, grow 3X faster and achieve 2X profit Source: Strategy& analysis Source: Coherence profiler with 4,400+ respondents, Strategy& analysis 29
Where are Indonesia banks in terms of the 6 Customer Experience Imperatives? Well defined customer messages across touch Structured feedback gathering and improvement Right channel and customer mix points process Foreign Foreign BPD State- BPD Foreign owned State- State- Syariah owned owned BPD Syariah Syariah Local Local Local private private private Weak Moderate Excellent Weak Moderate Excellent Weak Moderate Excellent Digitalisation and innovation to retain and Most bankers had a moderate view on their Consistent experience across channels acquire customers response to the 6 Customer Experience Imperatives. Only 3% of respondents felt their Foreign Foreign bank was ‘excellent’ in these areas. On average Foreign banks were most confident, and Local BPD BPD private banks were consistently the least State- Syariah confident. However, we note that there was not a owned State- substantial difference across the range of Syariah responses. owned Local Local private private Weak Moderate Excellent Weak Moderate Excellent 30
Customer Analytics capabilities lagging behind views on Customer Experience Imperatives As noted earlier, changing 72% of responses were moderate Bankers are less confident about Customer Analytics capability customer needs was seen as the or less, with 27% indicating a than with overall approach to Customer Experience #1 driver of business lower level of maturity. Overall we transformation by one-third of see that the confidence on Q What is the level of maturity of your Bank’s Customer Analytics capability? respondents, only surpassed by Customer Analytics is not quite to technology. Spending on the level of confidence about the Maturity of Customer Analytics capability technology is also most directed respective bank’s approach to towards front-end web/app/e- Customer Experience overall. A Low Moderate High banking investment. strong Customer Analytics Customer segmentation & Targeting 3.23 capability is the foundation for What then is the maturity of ensuring that limited resources are Profitability Analytics 3.22 Indonesia banks in terms of focus in the right direction with the analysing customers in order to be most benefit. Channel Analytics 3.08 most effective in the delivery of a Customer acquisition Analytics 2.98 customer-centric strategy? The most mature areas were in terms of customer segmentation Marketing mix Analytics 2.95 and overall profitability analytics. Least mature were customer Retention Analytics 2.86 retention analytics, measurement Experience Analytics 2.85 of the customer experience itself, and social media mining. Social media Mining 2.66 Customer Experience Imperatives midpoint 31
Risk
Takeaways Technology and FinTech Capital adequacy and disruption seen to be #1 Only moderate satisfaction with corporate governance are felt and #2 risks to Indonesia management of risks to be strong and not a banking concern Impact of PSAK 71 to loan Opportunities to improve Risk Underinvestment in Cyber Risk provisioning potentially Culture and Integrated Risk Management underestimated Management strategies 33
Technology now at the forefront of risk in the industry Cyber risk and FinTech disruption are challenging For the first time we see technology Credit risk was the #2 risk in 2017, and is related risks at the top of banker now #4. This reflects a more positive bankers to rethink strategies and response to risk concerns for the industry in Indonesia. sentiment on NPLs, and a better overall Q Please score the risks facing the banking industry in Indonesia over the next 2 to 3 years Both Technology/Cyber Risk and FinTech outlook, but bankers are still cautious Low Moderate High disruption were a clear #1 and #2. By about the credit risk that is inherent in the Technology/Cyber 4.03 comparison, technology risk was #6 in sector. Only respondents from the large Fin Tech disruption 3.89 2017 and #7 in 2015. FinTech disruption state-owned banks did not note credit risk was #12 last year. in their top-5 risks (#6). Macro-economy 3.63 Business Model risk has risen sharply up At the bottom of the list, capital availability Credit risk 3.51 the list from #11 in 2017 to #5 for 2018. is the least of concerns to bankers in Business model Given the extent to which technology is Indonesia. Capital adequacy levels are 3.40 rapidly changing the entire financial generally high and banks do not feel this Quality of risk mgmt 3.23 services sector, bankers are concerned is a risk. That is an overall positive factor whether the current business model is for the industry as a whole, however we Pricing of risk 3.23 appropriate. Blockchain, payments, peer- see that the challenge for Indonesia Human resources 3.22 to-peer lending, cryptocurrency, digital banking is not currently constraint in channels – new risks are emerging. terms of capital and finance, but rather Interest rates 3.20 one of competitiveness, agility and ability Risk in the macro-economy had been the to manage risk. The one exception here Currency 3.12 top risk since 2015, and this has fallen to is among respondents from smaller Regulation 3.09 a distant #3 as many concerns about the regional BPD banks where capital Indonesia economy have subsided and availability tied for #6 in their ranking of Political interference 3.06 global optimism is much improved. In our industry risk. recent PwC Global CEO Survey released Economic crime 3.00 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Liquidity 2.97 60% of CEO’s in Asia expect improving global economic growth. That compares Conduct practices 2.91 closely to the 57% of Indonesia bankers 2.75 in our survey who expected improved Corporate governance conditions for the sector in 2018. Source: PwC 2018 Capital availability 2.65 Indonesia Banking Survey
Foreign banks are most confident in their ability to manage top risks relative to the market as a whole While technology risk is noted by many, bankers have All respondents feel their bank is more prepared to diverse views on other risks address the risks than the industry as a whole Q Please score the risks facing the banking industry in Indonesia over the next 2 to 3 years Q How well prepared is the industry in Indonesia to address top risks? Low Medium High State-owned Foreign Local private BPD Industry preparedness 3.23 Technology Technology Fin Tech disruption Credit risk 10% Fin Tech disruption Fin Tech disruption Technology Fin Tech disruption Respondent preparedness 3.54 Business model Credit risk Macro-economy Macro-economy Macro-economy Macro-economy Credit risk Liquidity Interest rates Regulation Business model Technology State 3.25 Foreign 3.83 Respondents from foreign Banks are Foreign banks not only feel the most Local private 3.17 much more sensitive to regulation than confident about their own ability to BPD 3.60 other bankers. While they noted manage top risks, but they also have the regulation at #5, other banks rank it only largest gap (25%) between their view of as #14. Of particular concern is data- the industry’s ability to address top risks onshoring, IFRS 9 and KYC/AML. and their own ability to address those risks. This gap was much lower for other BPD banks note liquidity as the #4 risk bank groups where all were less than 5% and capital adequacy as #6. This points to difference. potential challenges unique to these smaller banks. They are generally less diversified and have a smaller market footprint. Source: PwC 2018 Indonesia Banking Survey 35
Lower satisfaction with credit risk management is driving changes in local banks compared to foreign banks Indonesia Banking Risk Focus Map - 2018 Credit risk management still under a dynamic Q Which are your top risk management focus areas in 2018? pace of change Credit Liquidity Market Operational Compliance Technology Q Which are your top risk management focus areas in 2018? State Satisfied Satisfied Satisfied Expected change in Credit Risk Management None Minor Moderate Significant Foreign Satisfied Satisfied Satisfied Satisfied Enhance scoring 2.06 Local Satisfied and approval private Limit exposure to Foreign 1.75 banks certain industries BPD Enhance loan 2.39 Local banks monitoring Syariah Satisfied (incl. State- Enhance owned) collection process 2.22 High focus = greater than 60% said a top-3 priority Satisfied with risk management = 3.67 or more Unsatisfied with risk management = 2.33 or less Data analytics 2.19 Medium focus = 30 to 60% said a top 3 priority No indication = “neutral” Low focus = less than 30% said a top 3 priority The Indonesia Banking Risk Focus Map It makes sense that bankers would As we can see, respondents from 54% of respondents were satisfied with highlights the main risk management direct their attention towards risk areas foreign banks and large state-owned their management of credit risk focus areas of bankers, and whether where they are less satisfied with banks are overall more satisfied with compared to 65% in 2017. The level of bankers are satisfied or unsatisfied with progress. However, these areas, their level of risk management. We satisfaction with the management of their actual management of that risk. particularly Credit Risk and Technology noted a strong correlation between credit risk was highest among Risk, are also noted as top risks for the banks that have an integrated risk respondents from foreign banks (75%), Generally, we see that bankers are industry as a whole by almost all management strategy and their compared to 44% among state-owned most satisfied with their management of respondents. The lack of satisfaction satisfaction with risk management. banks and 39% in local private banks. risk areas they see as lower priorities - with the management of those risks Liquidity Risk and Market Risk – and As a result, Local banks are expecting to should be a call for action for Indonesia be much more active in making changes less satisfied with higher priority risks banks to invest more heavily into those such as Credit Risk, Operational Risk to their Credit Risk Management in areas. 2018, particularly in enhanced loan and Technology Risk. monitoring and collection. Source: PwC 2018 Indonesia Banking Survey
Larger banks are addressing Operational Risk through Automation Following a similar trend from 2017, As we can see, Cyber security was Larger banks investing in automation to reduce Operational Risk larger BUKU 3 and BUKU 4 banks are fairly low in priority as a strategy to Q What is your strategy to reduce and manage operational risk in 2018? investing more into Automation to manage operational risk. Top-3 initiatives to reduce Operational Risk reduce Operational Risk. On the other hand, smaller banks are investing Smaller banks Larger banks more into foundational areas such as 58% Automation 93% People Development, a review of Standard Operating Procedures, Risk 87% People development 72% self assessments and Internal audit. 68% Review SOPs 52% 39% Risk self assessment 31% 6% Cyber security 24% 10% Compliance 14% 32% Internal Audit 7% 37
Banks may be underestimating their response to Cyber Risk? Although Technology Risk was We believe the industry in Only one-third of Indonesia Global CEOs’ concern about viewed as the top risk to Indonesia Indonesia is underestimating the banks have a CISO Cyber threats spikes banking, there does not seem to be effort needed to address Cyber Q Does your bank have a Chief Information Security Officer? How concerned are you about Cyber Threats? a similar intensity to managing that Risk. It is not a question of “if” but Showing only “extremely concerned” risk. rather “when” the organization is Showing only “Yes” response subjected to a successful cyber Only 5% of respondents noted attack. While many response plans All banks 31% 2018 40% Technology as the #1 risk and roles exist on paper, in our management focus area. Similarly experience most banks do not run 2017 24% only 6% of smaller banks and 24% simulations with multiple Local 17% of larger banks noted Cyber stakeholders when testing whether 2016 21% Foreign 52% Security as a top-3 strategy for those plans will be effective in 2015 21% managing Operational Risk. practice. 2014 14% The level of respondents’ overall In our recent PwC 21st CEO Source: PwC 2018 Indonesia Banking Survey satisfaction with the management Survey, global CEOs expressed a Source: PwC 21st CEO Survey (2018) of Technology/Cyber Risk was high sharp increase in concern about at 62%. However, two-thirds of Cyber threats compared to past respondents noted their bank does years. not yet have a Chief Information Security Officer. Only 17% from smaller banks had a CISO. 38 “ The average estimated total financial loss as a result of security incidents in Asia is $2.6 million. Source: PwC Global State of Information Security Survey
PwC’s Global State of Information Security® Survey 2018 Our Global survey reveals that organisations in Indonesia are actively exposed to the top vectors of Cyber security incidents compared to global responses 40% 26 % 29 % 23 % 27 % 15 % Employee Software Phishing Exploited Vulnerabilities 30 % 26% 28 % 23 % Consumer Indonesia Mobile Tech Device Global Exploited Exploited Source: PwC Global State of Information Security Survey 39
Increased compliance risk anticipated for KYC/AML Fewer bankers expecting an increase in Compliance Risk in 2018 Q Do you foresee your Bank facing increased legal and compliance risk in 2018? Compliance Risk has been seen to be Smaller banks were expecting the most on the increase for the last several increase in Compliance Risk in terms Bankers expecting increased Compliance years. However, for 2018 most of fraud – 69% noted this as a Top-3 Risk in 2018 Indonesia bankers (55%) do not expect risk. There was also a sharp difference an increase in Compliance Risk. between foreign banks and local banks in this respect: 80% of local banks The areas of most focus are related to noted Fraud Risk in their top-3, as 67% Know-your-customer (KYC, AML) compared to only 25% of foreign which was a top-3 risk noted by 75% of banks. This may be reflective of a 58% larger banks. number of foreign branches that have smaller retail portfolios. Nonetheless, Increased KYC/AML risk KYC – high on the list for foreign banks 45% Q Which are your top risk management focus areas in - is closely related to Fraud Risk as 2018? well. Areas of increased 66% compliance risk (Top-3) 59% 59% 93% 38% 24% 2015 2016 2017 2018 protection 10% Source: PwC Indonesia Banking Survey (2015, 2017, 2018) Consumer Tax KYC Other Regs Fraud AML 40
The clock is ticking on PSAK 71 implementation Only one-third of respondents noted that Among those who had a view, 61% of Most bankers expecting a PSAK 71 their bank has completed an impact respondents expect increased volatility in impact of less than 25% assessment of PSAK 71. As a result, there reporting results as a result of PSAK 71. may not yet be sufficient knowledge from This was as high as 78% from local which to draw a conclusion about the private banks and 71% from state-owned Q What is the estimated expected impact to the level of your Bank’s cumulative impact on provisions for banks Furthermore, 42% of respondents loan impairment provisioning from the implementation of PSAK 71? impairment. However, at this point most expect an impact to the way loans are respondents estimated an impact of less priced. Expected increase in loan impairment than 25%, which is below our experience provisioning due to PSAK 71 from other markets. Larger banks are farther ahead in their progress in that 48% are in advanced 52% stages of impact assessment compared to only 10% of smaller BUKU 1 and BUKU 2 banks. 1 Jan 2018 1 Jan 2019 1 Jan 2020 10 months 12 months IFRS 9 PSAK 71 effective date effective date 23% 16% IFRS 9/PSAK 71 requires an “expected-loss” impairment model for more timely recognition of expected credit losses. 9% This requires entities to account for expected credit losses from first recognition of the loan and to recognize full lifetime expected losses on a more timely basis. Entities will be required to use not only historical losses and current information, but also reasonable and supportable forward-looking information. No change 41 0% 25% 50% 75%
Two-thirds of Indonesia banks have not yet assessed the impact Challenges Mitigation PSAK 71 presents a number of practical • Definition of BM by senior management • Use of existing BM documentation and challenges that go beyond the core Classification & Measurement Considerations • Selling decisions with impact on accounting portfolio structures as starting point Business model classification and measurement issues. • Processes and systems required to document BM and • Informing SM about requirements and System modifications, FV models, reasons for sales strategic options (e.g. on transition date) communication management with stakeholders, forecasting and sensitivity • SPPI assessment at instrument level • Improvement /implementation of systems analysis, training, engagement with OJK Contractual • Required information not available • Clustering & use of efficient questionnaires just to name a few. cash flows • Business units to be included • Training of business units Only 8% of respondents to our survey were in a “very advanced stage” of • High quality FV needed for (structured) loans implementation, 80% of which are foreign Fair value • Implementation of FV models for loans • FV needed for modified loans banks whose parent companies typically measurement • Improvement of existing IT systems • May result in P&L and Equity volatility must already comply with IFRS 9 as of 1 January 2018. Although, as of the date of • Identify data gaps and capacity of existing IT this survey publication, 22 months remain • Availability of data on transition systems for implementation of PSAK 71, we Transitional impacts • Determining opening position impacts • Deploy simulation tools to identify and quantify recommend that banks who have not • FV may be needed for loans currently at amortised cost impacts already started an impact assessment • Develop, build and test FV models for loans begin to do so as soon as possible. Looking to IFRS 9 as an example, large • Reconciliation between PSAK 55 measurement and new banks globally began their assessments at • Mock up of disclosures measurement categories under PSAK 71. least 3 years before the standard’s • Regular contact with regulators and investors Disclosures • Additional qualitative and quantitative information is required • Potential for national disclosures and / or effective date. to be disclosed. guidelines • Need to communicate clearly to investor base. 42 Source: PwC Analysis
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